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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42, 2020

Posted on 21 October 2020 by doug_bostrom

Dust-up at the Denial Corral, in "journal time"

Way back in 2017 the Institute of Physics publication Environmental Research Letters (ERL) published a featured article, Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014),  by Supran & Oreskes. The article reverberated widely as it exposed a documented pattern of behavior arguably described as perfidious. The authors also apparently touched a nerve. A desperate attempt to steer attention from the main topic at hand ensued in "journal time" (like "bullet time" yet even slower) but has backfired spectacularly.

Years later— measurably more ppm CO2 later— ERL has published a comment by Swarup on the original work, and an immediate follow-up reply by the authors. Allez! It's fortunate that tickets for this event are free, because it's extremely short. The shot at Supran & Oreskes did not land wide— it bounced off on a reciprocal trajectory, with added energy. 

As Supran & Oreskes seem to have demolished Swarup's remarks we'll leave the last word with them. From the reply to comment: 

ExxonMobil Corp Vice President Vijay Swarup's criticisms of our 2017 study (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 084019), which demonstrated that ExxonMobil misled the public about climate change, are misleading and incorrect. Thanks in part to his feedback, we can now conclude with even greater confidence that Exxon, Mobil, and ExxonMobil Corp have all, variously, misled the public. We introduce new evidence that by the early 1980s, more than a decade before Mobil launched a vast advertising campaign to attack climate science and its implications, they were already explicitly aware of the potential for their products to cause dangerous global warming. We also observe that part of the comment is based on material provided by a contributor recruited and paid by ExxonMobil Corp, in our opinion as part of a product defense strategy. The comment does not disclose that. This is a case in point of what we argue is misleading behavior documented in our original study.

Bold ours. Touché doesn't quite describe it. "Tripped and fell on foil?" The comment, and the reply. Enjoy. 

149 articles 

Observations of global warming & effects

Record‐setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15388

Intensified fragmentation and shrinkage of the polar climate zone in the Arctic
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6899

Recent anthropogenic climate change exceeds the rate and magnitude of natural Holocene variability on the Balearic Islands
DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2020.100268

Multidecadal Warming and Density Loss in the Deep Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Poleward Shift of Atmospheric Rivers in the Southern Hemisphere in Recent Decades
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089934

A Synthesis of Observations and Models to Assess the Time Series of Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Beaufort Sea
DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015833

Decadal increase of the summer precipitation in Thailand after the mid-1990s
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05443-8

Observed trends of different rainfall intensities and the associated spatiotemporal variations during 1958‐2016 in Guangxi, China
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6888

Temperature annual cycle variations and responses to surface solar radiation in China between 1960 and 2016
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6895

Changing diets and traditional lifestyle of Siberian Arctic Indigenous Peoples and effects on health and well-being
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01387-9

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate & global warming

Evaluating Radiometric Responsivity Degradations of TANSO-FTS/ GOSAT Using Principal Component Analysis

Calving Front Machine (CALFIN): Glacial Termini Dataset and Automated Deep Learning Extraction Method for Greenland, 1972–2019
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-231 (preprint)

On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-265 (preprint)

Improving the Representation of Historical Climate Precipitation Indices Using Optimal Interpolation Methods
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444

Greenhouse gas observation network design for Africa
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000889.2020.1824486

Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089974

Measuring global mean sea level changes with surface drifting buoys
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091078

Breaking the ice: Identifying hydraulically‐forced crevassing
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090597

Evaluating stratospheric tropical width using tracer concentrations
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033081

Gridded versus station temperatures: time evolution of relationships with atmospheric circulation
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033254

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15365

Modeling, simulation & projection of global warming & global warming effects MSWE

Drier North American Monsoon in Contrast to Asian–African Monsoon under Global Warming
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0189.1

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18992-7

Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-291 (preprint)

Arctic precipitation and surface wind speed associated with cyclones in a changing climate
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05425-w

Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090327

Atmospheric warming drives growth in Arctic sea‐ice: a key role for snow
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090236

Arctic Clouds and Precipitation in the Community Earth System Model Version
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd032521

Sensitivity of atmospheric river vapor transport and precipitation to uniform sea‐surface temperature increases
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033421

Attributing causes of future climate change in the California Current System with multi‐model downscaling
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006646

Dependence of atmospheric transport into the Arctic on the meridional extent of the Hadley cell
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503912.1

African Lightning and its Relation to Rainfall and Climate Change in a Convection‐Permitting Model
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088163

Detectability of an AMOC decline in current and projected climate changes
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089974

An assessment of the temporal variability in the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A comparison of the historical runs with observations
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503305.1

Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05456-3

Mapping of cyclone induced extreme water levels along Gujarat and Maharashtra coasts: a climate change perspective
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05463-4

Changes in the North Pacific subtropical gyre under 1.5 °C low warming scenario
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05436-7

A comprehensive analysis of projected changes of extreme precipitation indices in West Rapti River basin, Nepal under changing climate
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6866

A comprehensive analysis of meteorological drought stress over the Yellow River basin (China) for the next forty years
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6892

Time of Emergence of Climate Signals over Vietnam detected from the CORDEX‐SEA experiments
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6897

Advancing climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd032321

Impacts of ocean wave‐dependent momentum flux on global ocean climate
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089296

Ranking IPCC Model Performance Using the Wasserstein Distance
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089385

Assessment of high‐resolution dynamical and machine learning models for prediction of sea‐ice concentration in a regional application
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016277

Simulation of Northeast U.S. Extreme Precipitation and Its Associated Circulation by CMIP5 Models

How Well Do CMIP6 Historical Runs Match Observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation–Related Circulation?

Representation of the boreal summer tropical Atlantic–western North Pacific teleconnection in AGCMs: comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05427-8

Understanding the bias in surface latent and sensible heat fluxes in contemporary AGCMs over tropical oceans
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05431-y

Impact of bias correction of regional climate model boundary conditions on the simulation of precipitation extremes
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05462-5

Evaluation of snow cover and snow water equivalent in the continental Arctic in CMIP5 models
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05434-9

The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7

Cryosphere & climate change

Thinning leads to calving-style changes at Bowdoin Glacier, Greenland
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-252 (preprint)

Forty-year Simulations of Firn Processes over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-266 (preprint)

Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-291 (preprint)

Brief communication: Glacier thickness reconstruction on Mt. Kilimanjaro
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3399-2020

On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-265 (preprint)

Atmospheric warming drives growth in Arctic sea‐ice: a key role for snow
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090236

Long‐Term Increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet Vulnerability Driven by Bed Topography Evolution
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090003

Breaking the ice: Identifying hydraulically‐forced crevassing
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090597

Glacial drivers of marine biogeochemistry indicate a future shift to more corrosive conditions in an Arctic fjord
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005633

A Synthesis of Observations and Models to Assess the Time Series of Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Beaufort Sea
DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015833

Paleoclimate

Paleoclimate Constraints on the Spatiotemporal Character of Past and Future Droughts
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0004.1

CH4 and N2O fluctuations during the penultimate deglaciation (preprint)

Global carbon cycle perturbations triggered by volatile volcanism and ecosystem responses during the Carnian Pluvial Episode (late Triassic)
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103404

Learning from the past: Impact of the Arctic Oscillation on sea ice and marine productivity off northwest Greenland over the last 9,000 years

Biology & global warming

Insects in high‐elevation streams: Life in extreme environments imperiled by climate change
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15356

Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15359

Parasitoids indicate major climate‐induced shifts in arctic communities
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15297

Key rules of life and the fading cryosphere: Impacts in alpine lakes and streams
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15362

Climate change and the future of endemic flora in the South Western Alps: relationships between niche properties and extinction risk
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01708-4

Warming winters threaten peripheral Arctic charr populations of Europe
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02887-z

Warmer winters causes an increase of chlorophyll-a concentration in deeper layers: the opposite role of convection and self-shading on the example of the Black Sea
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-366 (preprint)

Plant trait response of tundra shrubs to permafrost thaw and nutrient addition
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-4981-2020

Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3

Getting to the Root of Plant‐Mediated Methane Emissions and Oxidation in a Thermokarst Bog
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005825

Growth-limiting factors and climate response variability in Norway spruce ( Picea abies L.) along an elevation and precipitation gradients in Slovenia
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02033-5

Climate‐ versus geographic‐dependent patterns in the spatial distribution of macroinvertebrate assemblages in New World depressional wetlands
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15367

Spatial and temporal shift in the factors affecting the population dynamics of Calanus copepods in the North Sea
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15394

Temperature‐dependence of metabolic rate in tropical and temperate aquatic insects: support for the Climate Variability Hypothesis in mayflies but not stoneflies
Open Access DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15400

Elevation alters outcome of competition between resident and range‐shifting species
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15401

Climate change facilitates a parasite’s host exploitation via temperature‐mediated immunometabolic processes
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15402

Mammalian herbivory shapes intraspecific trait responses to warmer climate and nutrient enrichment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15378

Ocean acidification causes variable trait‐shifts in a coral species
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15372

Temperature affects the reproductive outputs of coral-eating starfish Acanthaster spp. after adult exposure to near-future ocean warming and acidification

Decreased pH impairs sea urchin resistance to predatory fish: A combined laboratory-field study to understand the fate of top-down processes in future oceans
DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105194

High summer temperatures amplify functional differences between coral‐ and algae‐dominated reef communities
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3226

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Technical note: On comparing greenhouse gas emission metrics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-996 (preprint)

From pools to flow: The PROMISE framework for new insights on soil carbon cycling in a changing world
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15365

Perspective: Increasing Blue Carbon around Antarctica is an ecosystem service of considerable societal and economic value worth protecting
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15392

Utility-specific projections of electricity sector greenhouse gas emissions: a committed emissions model-based case study of California through 2050
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb7ad

Direct response of tree growth to soil water and its implications for terrestrial carbon cycle modelling
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15397

Climate change‐mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15377

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-4999-2020

Organic matter and sediment properties determine in-lake variability of sediment CO2 and CH4 production and emissions of a small and shallow lake

Changing carbon-to-nitrogen ratios of organic-matter export under ocean acidification
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00915-5

Radiocarbon in Marine Methane Reveals Patchy Impact of Seeps on Surface Waters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089516

Organic carbon export and loss rates in the Red Sea
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006650

Reducing uncertainties of future global soil carbon responses to climate and land use change with emergent constraints
DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006589

Contrasting regional carbon cycle responses to seasonal climate anomalies across the east‐west divide of temperate North America
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006598

Getting to the Root of Plant‐Mediated Methane Emissions and Oxidation in a Thermokarst Bog
DOI: 10.1029/2020jg005825

Methane and carbon dioxide emissions from reservoirs: controls and upscaling
DOI: 10.1029/2019jg005474

Agroforestry reclamations decreased the CO2 budget of a coastal wetland in the Yangtze estuary

Tropical peatlands and their contribution to the global carbon cycle and climate change
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15408

Impacts of soil water stress on the acclimated stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: Insights from stable carbon isotope data
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15364

Elevated CO 2 decreases soil carbon stability in Tibetan Plateau

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

The biophysical climate mitigation potential of boreal peatlands during the growing season
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abab34

Preliminary geochemical investigation of a possible CO2 injection in the Ungaran geothermal field, Indonesia: equilibrium and kinetic modeling

The decarbonisation of the EU heating sector through electrification: A parametric analysis
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111929

Geoengineering climate

Assessing solar geoengineering research funders: Insights from two US public deliberations
DOI: 10.1177/2053019620964845

Detectability of artificial ocean alkalinization and stratospheric aerosol injection in MPI‐ESM
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001634

Black carbon

Regional Climate Responses in East Asia to the Black Carbon Aerosol Direct Effects from India and China in Summer
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0706.1

Climate change communications & cognition

Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02889-x

“Don’t Tell Me What to Do”: Resistance to Climate Change Messages Suggesting Behavior Changes
DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-19-0141.1

Visually Communicating Future Climate in a Web Environment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-19-0152.1

Media Representation of Extreme Event Attribution: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

Impact of the Climate Matters Program on Public Understanding of Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-20-0026.1

An Interactive Online Course in Climate and Climate Change: Advancing Climate Literacy for Non–Atmospheric Science Majors
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0271.1

Climate activism and its effects
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.683

Agronomy & climate change

Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19066-4

Inner Workings: Crop researchers harness artificial intelligence to breed crops for the changing climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2018732117

Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02889-x

The contributions of climate change and production area expansion to drought risk for maize in China over the last four decades
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6885

Current rice models underestimate yield losses from short‐term heat stresses
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15393

Elevated atmospheric CO2 reduces yield‐scaled N2O fluxes from subtropical rice systems: six site‐years field experiments

Climate Changes and Agricultural-Livestock Pathology
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100249

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00516-y

Firm market value relevance of carbon reduction targets, external carbon assurance and carbon communication
DOI: 10.1080/17583004.2020.1833370

Perspective: Increasing Blue Carbon around Antarctica is an ecosystem service of considerable societal and economic value worth protecting
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15392

Responsible or reckless? A critical review of the environmental and climate assessments of mineral supply chains
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1097/bot

The status of Climate Risk Management in Austria. Assessing the governance landscape and proposing ways forward for comprehensively managing flood and drought risk
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100246

Climate change mitigation & adaptation public policy research

Rethinking planning hierarchy considering climate change as global catastrophe
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100252

India’s energy sector choices—options and implications of ambitious mitigation efforts
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02885-1

Assessing solar geoengineering research funders: Insights from two US public deliberations
DOI: 10.1177/2053019620964845

Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03399-7

Climate activism and its effects
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/wcc.683

Climate implications of electrification projects in the developing world: a systematic review
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb0ed

Combining mitigation strategies to increase co-benefits for biodiversity and food security
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb10a

Climate change adaptation

Farmers’ perceptions and matching climate records jointly explain adaptation responses in four communities around Lake Tana, Ethiopia
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02889-x

Climate change impacts on human culture

Are we ready to track climate‐driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? ‐ A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data
Open Access DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15404

Impacts of climate change on heating and cooling degree‐hours over China
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6889

Elaborating a people-centered approach to understanding sustainable livelihoods under climate and environmental change: Thang Binh District, Quang Nam Province, Vietnam
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-020-00861-3

Changing diets and traditional lifestyle of Siberian Arctic Indigenous Peoples and effects on health and well-being
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01387-9

Toxicity travels in a changing climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2020.09.029

Other

Reply to Hausfather and Peters: RCP8.5 is neither problematic nor misleading
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2018008117

Comment on ‘Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977–2014)’ Supran and Oreskes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbc91

Reply to Comment on ‘Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977–2014)’ Supran and Oreskes
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abbe82

Causal effects of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño–Southern Oscillation during 1950–2014 based on high-resolution models and reanalysis data
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb96d

Minimal climate impacts from short‐lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090326

Observed changes in flood hazard in Africa
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb90b

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Research can (and should) support corporate decarbonization
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00936-0

Perspective: Increasing Blue Carbon around Antarctica is an ecosystem service of considerable societal and economic value worth protecting
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15392

Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00516-y

Opinion: Envisioning a biodiversity science for sustaining human well-being
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2018436117

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030: Time to shift U.S. power-sector focus
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111778

 


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