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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31 2022

Posted on 4 August 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

"CAGW." A thing?

With its provocative title and remarks grounded in respected published research, the perspective  Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios just published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has caused a few ripples reaching into popular media. "Endgame" and "catastrophic" lean hard in the direction of "pay attention," and are words not chosen lightly. Not least, it's a reputational risk to employ such language, but here we find multiple excellent reputations created by diverse careers of competent, judiicious research converging and agreeing on this terminology. Given our circumstances and the wellspring of advice at hand, we'd be stupid not to pay attention.

Veterans of the trenches of online climate discourse (such as it is) are well familar with the mostly-epithet "CAGW," short for "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming." Usually employed as a distracting insult and mental tripping point when the current of factual argument turns against climate change deniers and it's time to change the topic to unfalsifiables, the term is intended to portray folks having concerns about our effect on our planet's climate as being hysterical pearl clutchers.

Successful deployment of "CAGW" as a rhetorical bomb depends in part on us failing to use our imaginations. "What's a catastrophe?" means unpacking the meaning of "a." An extreme temperature event isn't a catastrophe. A drought isn't a catastrophe. Both together still are not catastrophic— even when they cause a single major "breadbasket" agricultural failure. But what about two breadbaskets failing simultaneously, precipitating thereby geopolitical strife and hence causing 1,000,000 "excess mortality" events over the next few years? 1,000,000 persons dying in a single day would certainly find us all in agreement: "it's a catastrophe!" Repeat this rough sequence a handful of times and we're undoubtedly deeply mired in catastrophe. Given the forces we've unleashed, it's a safe (but not nice) bet we'll be seeing collective "excess mortality" on a catastrophic scale, if our imaginations can encompass 100 years. 

Kemp et al. remind us that climate change presents us with profound risks of combinatorial collisions leading to catastrophic outcomes. Beyond the authors' words, we might observe In particular that what we know of climate impacts on agriculture and subsequent forced migration in the face of food supply failure suggests that we're certainly facing catastrophic outcomes, if we value 1,000,000 lives needlessly lost in over a 100-year timespan as we would the same lives lost over a week's time. 

Any given edition of New Research is littered with articles germane to "knock-on" effects of climate change leading to "cultural climate amplification," possible or looming systems failures. "Other notables" for this week features a few such items, fodder for reasoned imagination armed with facts.

Other notables:

Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate. Based on our historical as opposed to promised emissions trajectory, "The expected percentage of Harris [county of Texas, USA] residents experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard in a 20-year period could increase dramatically by a factor of 23 (from 0.8% to 18.2%) over the 21st century."

Future flooding increases unequal exposure risks to relic industrial pollution. "Merging property-level flood-risk projections from the First Street Foundation with historical data on former hazardous manufacturing facilities in 6 U.S. cities, we identify more than 6000 relic industrial sites with elevated flood risk over the next 30 years." Yes, just 6 (six) cities.

Influence and prediction value of Arctic sea ice for spring Eurasian extreme heat events. Missing ice finds its way "home"— far, far away.  

State of the UK Climate 2021. "This report provides a summary of the UK weather and climate through the calendar year 2021, alongside the historical context for a number of essential climate variables. This is the eighth in a series of annual “State of the UK Climate” publications and an update to the 2020 report (Kendon et al., 2021). It provides an accessible, authoritative and up-to-date assessment of UK climate trends, variations and extremes based on the most up-to-date observational datasets of climate quality."

All of the above open access and free to read.

128 articles in 58 journals by 816 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
Couldrey et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y

Observations of climate change, effects

Analysis of long-term trends and variations in extreme high air temperatures in May over Turkey and a record-breaking heatwave event of May 2020
Erlat et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7821

Correction to: Persistent freshening of the Arctic Ocean and changes in the North Atlantic salinity caused by Arctic sea ice decline
Li & Fedorov, Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06433-8

Evaluating global and regional land warming trends in the past decades with both MODIS and ERA5-Land land surface temperature data
Wang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113181

Influence and prediction value of Arctic sea ice for spring Eurasian extreme heat events
Sun et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00503-9

Marine heatwaves in the Arabian Sea
Chatterjee et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-639-2022

Recent decrease in western North Pacific tropical cyclone rapid intensification during June
Song et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1121

Review and synthesis of climate change studies in the Himalayan region
Negi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01880-5

State of the UK Climate 2021
Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access 10.1002/joc.7787

Trends and variabilities of precipitation and temperature extremes over Southeast Asia during 1981–2017
Fan et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00913-6

Unprecedented summer hypoxia in southern Cape Cod Bay: an ecological response to regional climate change?
Scully et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-3523-2022

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Emerging biological archives can reveal ecological and climatic change in Antarctica
Strugnell et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16356

Fifty years of Landsat science and impacts
Wulder et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113195

Remote Sensing from Unoccupied Aerial Systems: Opportunities to Enhance Arctic Plant Ecology in a Changing Climate
Yang et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13976

Testing mean air temperature trends in southern Greece: A Bayesian approach
Tsiotas et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7516

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Bias correction, historical evaluations, and future projections of climate simulations in the Wei River Basin using CORDEX-EA
Wang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04157-7

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea: Projections and uncertainty investigations
Ranji et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7523

Future changes of hot extremes in Spain: towards warmer conditions
Lorenzo & Alvarez, Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-022-05306-x

Projections of changes in maximum air temperature and hot days in Poland
Tomczyk et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7530

Stronger decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension under simulated future climate change
Joh et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00285-z

Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6
Herrera?Lormendez et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7481

Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6
Herrera?Lormendez et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7481

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A microclimate model for plant transpiration effects
Qingjuan et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101240

Assessment of the RegCM4-CORDEX-CORE performance in simulating cyclones affecting the western coast of South America
Crespo et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06419-6

Evolution of Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Earth System Models from CMIP5 to CMIP6
Wei et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0763.1

Improved skill of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in reproducing weather regimes in East Asia
Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7817

Mechanisms for Extreme Precipitation Changes in a Tropical Archipelago
Argüeso et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0224.1

The capability of CMIP6 models on seasonal precipitation extremes over Central Asia
Liu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106364

Why do the global warming responses of land-surface models and climatic dryness metrics disagree?
Scheff et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002814

Cryosphere & climate change

Changes in the annual sea ice freeze-thaw cycle in the Arctic Ocean from 2001 to 2018
Lin et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-137

Evaluation of basal melting parameterisations using in situ ocean and melting observations from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica
Rosevear et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-1109-2022

GBaTSv2: a revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet
MacGregor et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022

Poleward shift of Circumpolar Deep Water threatens the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Herraiz-Borreguero & Naveira Garabato, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01424-3

Simulation of the current and future dynamics of permafrost near the northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Zhao et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-123

Sea level & climate change Paleoclimate

Holocene upland and wetland dynamics in the Chihuahuan Desert, Cuatrociénegas Mexico
Minckley et al., The Holocene, 10.1177/09596836221114295

The recent past is not a reliable guide to future climate impacts: Response to Caro et al. (2022)
Thierry et al., Conservation Letters, 10.1111/conl.12915

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem
Sunday et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16317

Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C
McWhorter et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16323

Climate warming enhances precipitation sensitivity of flowering phenology in temperate steppes on the Mongolian Plateau
Zhou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109094

Climate warming leads to advanced fruit development period of temperate woody species but divergent changes in its length
Ma et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16357

Climate-driven divergent long-term trends of forest beetles in Japan
Evans et al., Ecology Letters, 10.1111/ele.14082

Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species
Kumar et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16352

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
Bradter et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16355

Fall and rise of the phytoplankton
Dunne, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01439-w

Long-term experimental drought alters floral scent and pollinator visits in a Mediterranean plant community despite overall limited impacts on plant phenotype and reproduction
Jaworski et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13974

Partly decoupled tree-ring width and leaf phenology response to 20th century temperature change in Sweden
Stridbeck et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125993

Partly decoupled tree-ring width and leaf phenology response to 20th century temperature change in Sweden
Stridbeck et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125993

Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers
Voskamp et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2021.2184

Selection on offspring size and contemporary evolution under ocean acidification
Johnson, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01425-2

The longest baseline record of vegetation dynamics in Antarctica reveals acute sensitivity to water availability
Colesie et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002823

Towards better characterization of global warming impacts in the environment through climate classifications with improved global models
Navarro et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7527

Will climate change cause the global peatland to expand or contract? Evidence from the habitat shift pattern of Sphagnum mosses
Ma et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16354

Winter warming offset one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding
Wang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16358

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Carbon and climate implications of rewetting a raised bog in Ireland
Wilson et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16359

Carbon Loss Pathways in Degraded Peatlands: New Insights from Radiocarbon Measurements of Peatland Waters
Evans et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jg006344

Decrease in Erosion-induced Soil Organic Carbon as a Result of Vegetation Restoration in the Loess Plateau, China
Gou et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006917

East Asian methane emissions inferred from high-resolution inversions of GOSAT and TROPOMI observations: a comparative and evaluative analysis
Liang et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-508

Methane Emission From Global Lakes: New Spatiotemporal Data and Observation-Driven Modeling of Methane Dynamics Indicates Lower Emissions
Johnson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg006793

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies
Velders et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1070

Quantifying methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources using satellite observations of atmospheric methane
Jacob et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-246

Rates and drivers of aboveground carbon accumulation in global monoculture plantation forests
Bukoski et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31380-7

Vertically migrating phytoplankton fuel high oceanic primary production
Wirtz et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01430-5

Warming response of peatland CO2 sink is sensitive to seasonality in warming trends
Helbig et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01428-z

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Engineering nonphotosynthetic carbon fixation for production of bioplastics by methanogenic archaea
Thevasundaram et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2118638119

The Need-Efficiency Tradeoff for negative emissions technologies
Mintz-Woo, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000060


A data-driven household electricity synthesiser for South Africa using enveloped sum of Gaussians
Ritchie et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.008

A reconfigurable and magnetically responsive assembly for dynamic solar steam generation
Hu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32051-3

An integrated framework for feasibility analysis and optimal management of a neighborhood-scale energy system with rooftop PV and waste-to-energy technologies
Ji et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.012

An optimization model for construction project scheduling by considering CO2 emissions with multi-mode resource constraints under interval-valued fuzzy uncertainty
Aramesh et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04377-4

Assessing the Impact of Offshore Wind Power Deployment on Fishery: A Synthetic Control Approach
Shimada et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00710-0

Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States
Berrill et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01429-y

Opting for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Uganda: a non-cooperative game
Ssebbugga-Kimeze, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10016-7

Photocatalytic dehydrogenative C-C coupling of acetonitrile to succinonitrile
Zhou et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32137-y

Policy and pricing barriers to steel industry decarbonisation: A UK case study
Richardson-Barlow et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113100

Stable solar water splitting with wettable organic-layer-protected silicon photocathodes
Wu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32099-1

The cost effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectricity: British Columbia’s Site C project
Dolter et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113161

Geoengineering climate

Assessing the consequences of including aerosol absorption in potential stratospheric aerosol injection climate intervention strategies
Haywood et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1032

Black carbon

Arctic spring and summertime aerosol optical depth baseline from long-term observations and model reanalyses – Part 1: Climatology and trend
Xian et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-9915-2022


Assessing the climate and air quality effects of future aerosol mitigation in India using a global climate model combined with statistical downscaling
Miinalainen et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-513

Regime shift in aerosol optical depth and long-term aerosol radiative forcing implications over the Arabian Peninsula Region
Dayanandan et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119298

Survival probability of atmospheric new particles: closure between theory and measurements from 1.4 to 100 nm
Cai et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-476

Climate change communications & cognition

Fear of COVID-19 Reinforces Climate Change Beliefs. Evidence From 28 European countries
Stefkovics & Hortay Stefkovics, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.07.029

Local temperature anomalies increase climate policy interest and support: Analysis of internet searches and US congressional vote shares
Sisco & Weber, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102572

On climate anxiety and the threat it may pose to daily life functioning and adaptation: a study among European and African French-speaking participants
Heeren et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03402-2

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessing vulnerability of wetland fisheries to climate change: a stakeholders’ perception-based approach
Naskar et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2021.1956410

Climate change impacts on irrigated crops in Cambodia
Alvar-Beltrán et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109105

Climate-driven expansion of northern agriculture must consider permafrost
Ward Jones et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01436-z

Climatic suitability projection for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China under climate warming
Sun et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02335-w

CO2 exchanges and evapotranspiration of a grazed pasture under tropical climate conditions
Bezerra et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109088

Daily, seasonal and inter-annual variations in CO2 fluxes and carbon budget in a winter-wheat and summer-maize rotation system in the North China Plain
Tao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109098

Environmental factors contributing to variations in CO2 flux over a barley–rice double-cropping paddy field in the Korean Peninsula
Park et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02341-y

Net carbon dioxide exchange in a hyperseasonal cattle pasture in the northern Pantanal wetland of Brazil
Dalmagro et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109099

Optimizing planting dates and cultivars can enhance China's potato yield under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming
Tang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109106

Substantial increase of compound droughts and heatwaves in wheat growing seasons worldwide
He et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7518

Vulnerability and impact of climate variability on Peruvian artisanal fisheries
Pécastaing & Salavarriga, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2021.1964423

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Effects of climate change on major elements of the hydrological cycle in Aksu River basin, northwest China
Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7537

Future flooding increases unequal exposure risks to relic industrial pollution
Marlow et al., Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac78f7

Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070
Panagos et al., Journal of Hydrology, Open Access 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865

Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China
Liu et al., Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022

Climate change economics

Climate policy and financial system stability: evidence from Chinese fund markets
Wang et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2022.2104790

Country ownership in climate finance coordination: a comparative assessment of Kenya and Zambia
Shawoo et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2098227

Heterogeneity of decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions in China's Green Industrial Parks
Yu et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002753

Rethinking governance in international climate finance: Structural change and alternative approaches
Browne, WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.795

Reviewing the nature and pitfalls of multilateral adaptation finance for small island developing states
Kalaidjian & Robinson, Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100432

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Climate partners of Helsinki: Participation-based structures and performance in a city-to-business network addressing climate change in 2011–2018
Heikkinen et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101250

Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests
Apergis et al., Tourism Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1177/13548166221110540

Energy management practices, barriers, and drivers in Bangladesh: An exploratory insight from pulp and paper industry
Siddique et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.015

Mitigation of climate change impact using green wall and green roof strategies: comparison between two different climate regions in Iran
Roshan et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04146-w

More future synergies and less trade-offs between forest ecosystem services with natural climate solutions instead of bioeconomy solutions
Mazziotta et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16364

More use or cleaner use? Income growth and rural household energy-related carbon emissions in central China
kumar & Krishnan Gurgan Ozturk, SSRN Electronic Journal, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.3640059

On the quality of emission reductions: observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021)
Lilliestam et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00708-8

The potential impacts of an EU-wide agricultural mitigation target on the Irish agriculture sector
Adenaeuer et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2105791

What are the priorities for improving the cleanliness of energy consumption in rural China? Urbanisation advancement or agriculture development?
, Encyclopedia of Food and Agricultural Ethics, Open Access 10.1007/978-94-024-1179-9_300044

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing spatial vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and extremes: a geographic information system approach
Azam & Rahman Rahman, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10013-w

Connecting climate justice and adaptation planning: An adaptation justice index
Juhola et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.07.024

On climate anxiety and the threat it may pose to daily life functioning and adaptation: a study among European and African French-speaking participants
Heeren et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03402-2

Resource and geospatial diversity could mitigate climate-induced risks in Africa’s power systems
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01417-2

The dynamics of institutional arrangements for climate change adaptation in small island developing states in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans
Robinson et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01186-z

Transformational adaptation and country ownership: competing priorities in international adaptation finance
Kuhl & Shinn, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2104791

Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate
Feng et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32018-4

Urban water insecurity and its gendered impacts: on the gaps in climate change adaptation and Sustainable Development Goals
Tandon et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2051418

Climate change impacts on human health

Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan
Fujimoto & Nishiura , PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13838

Fractal shifts and esthetic rifts: climate change and emotional well-being
Taylor & York, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03414-y


Extreme Heat Impacts on the Viability of Alternative Transportation for Reducing Ozone Pollution: A Case Study from Maricopa County, Arizona
Braun & Fraser, Weather, Climate, and Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0158.1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Big homes hinder emission cuts
Cabrera Serrenho, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01434-1

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Kemp et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2108146119

State of the UK Climate 2021
Kendon et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access 10.1002/joc.7787

The tragedy of climate change science
Glavovic et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.2008855

Book reviews

Allan Stoekl: The three sustainabilities: energy, economy, time
Smardon, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00781-x

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Western RTO Economic Impact Study Region-Wide Analysis, Energy Strategies and Peterson & Associates, Advanced Energy Economy

The authors quantify the economic benefits that might accrue to 11 Western states from the development of a broad, West-wide organized electricity market known as a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO). The report fills a research gap on the broader economic impacts that might result from the electricity cost savings and structural changes brought about by a potential RTO in the West. The authors found that substantial economic benefits, including new jobs, new indirect business taxes, and increases in Gross Regional Product are likely to flow to the region if a Western RTO is established. There are a variety of categories of benefits that might be brought about by an RTO or other organized electricity market structure. The study considers a subset of the energy-related benefits that might occur due to the operation of an RTO in the region, specifically the operational and capacity savings. This analysis then seeks to understand how those electricity cost savings flow into the economy and create broader, non-energy-related economic impacts. The authors focused on evaluating two broad categories of economic impacts that may result from an RTO: 1. The economic impacts to Western states from increased spending power for households that would occur due to electricity prices being lower under an RTO than they would be under a continuation of the status quo in Western electricity markets, and 2. The economic impacts from new or expanded business activity that may occur due to RTO development.

Our Future World. Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades., Naughtin et al., Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

The authors present an update on the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's (CSIRO) global megatrends out to 2042 with the view to guide long-term investment, strategic and policy directions across government, industry, the not-for-profit sector, and the broader Australian community. Adopting a similar approach to CSIRO’s previous global megatrends, this work explores how the previous megatrends have evolved over the previous decade as well as the new trends, impacts, and drivers that have emerged over this period, providing a perspective on how these trends may unfold in the coming decades. Megatrends are trajectories of change that typically unfold over years or decades and have the potential for substantial and transformative impact.

Aggregate Trends of Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013-2020, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

The report presents the total annual levels of climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries for developing countries from 2013-2020. For 2016-2020, it includes an overview by climate theme, sector, financial instrument, and regions. The key message is that $83.3 billion was provided and mobilized jointly by developed countries for climate action in developing countries in 2020. However, the 2020 goal under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was $100 billion. While representing an increase of 4% from 2019, this means that the collective level of developed country climate finance was $16.7 billion short of the goal. Mitigation finance was the majority use of the funds provided, but adaptation finance continued to grow, in both relative and absolute terms. Loans continued to be the main instrument used to provide public climate finance. Climate finance mainly targeted Asia and middle-income countries.

Empirical Estimates of Transmission Value using Locational Marginal Prices, Millstein et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

The authors focus on one potential benefit of transmission infrastructure—congestion relief. It explores historical grid conditions from 2012 through the first half of 2022 and evaluates the marginal value of transmission in facilitating trade within and across regional boundaries by calculating differences in observed nodal wholesale power prices. The authors found that wholesale power prices exhibit stark geographic differences that, in many cases, are stable over time. Many regional and interregional transmission links have significant potential economic value from reducing congestion and expanding opportunities for trade. In fact, many links have hourly average pricing differences in 2021 that exceeded $15/MWh—equivalent to $130 million per year for a 1000 MW link. The value of transmission is correlated with overall energy prices and varies by region and year. Critically, extreme conditions and high-value periods play an outsized role in the value of transmission, with 50% of transmission’s congestion value coming from only 5% of hours. Transmission planners run the risk of understating the benefits of regional and interregional transmission if extreme conditions and high-value periods are not adequately considered. These periods are natural features of actual market operations. As such, the study highlights the need for planners to more comprehensively assess the value of transmission under both normal and extreme conditions.

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Comments 1 to 1:

  1. Presentations like “Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios” are what matter most in science.

    And the matter is more than "Given our circumstances and the wellspring of advice at hand, we'd be stupid not to pay attention." Not pursuing increased awareness and improved understanding and applying it to limit harm done and help those needing assistance is unethical - immoral.

    Ethical Scientists need to maintain a focus on identifying the harm done by developed human activity. The marketplace competition for perceptions of superiority based on popularity and profit has proven to be uninterested in identifying and limiting harm done.

    In the 2022 book “What Climate Justice Means and Why We Should Care” Elizabeth Cripps provides a well-reasoned moral/ethical understanding built on the thoughtful work of many others.

    The bottom line understanding undeniably includes:

    • the impacts of everyone’s thoughts and resulting actions add up to become the future reality.
    • it is catastrophic for anyone to choose to act in ways that are unnecessarily harmful
    • it is sad and harmful when a person chooses to be less helpful than they could be

    The question of ‘unnecessary harm’ leads to understanding that only people living less than a basic decent life can be excused for acting harmfully in pursuit of a basic decent life. But the actions taken to achieve a basic decent life need to be as harmless as possible. Others who are living ‘better than basic decent lives’ at least owe assistance that they can easily provide to help those living less than basic decent lives sustainably improve their lives. In many cases the least that is owed is ‘to seek out and vote for leaders who would lead effective collective efforts to limit harm done and sustainably improve conditions for those who live less than basic decent lives’.

    That ethical understanding makes it plain that people living more than basic decent lives are only pursuing ‘wants’, not ‘needs’. Pursuit of improved circumstances above a basic decent life ‘need’ to be essentially harmless because everyone doing a little bit of unnecessary harm can easily add up to a massive amount of harm. And any claim that ‘it is harmful to limit the excess harmful actions of people who are enjoying more than basic decent lives’ is an absurd, but potentially very popular and profitable, argument.

    That understanding leads many people to try to deny that there is any harm being done by the harmful actions they developed a liking for. They try to deny there is any harm done by the undeniable increased CO2 due primarily to fossil fuel use. Some try to promote beliefs that there is no relationship between increased CO2 and harmful results of increased global average surface temperature (many of the items on the SkS list of “arguments” are versions of that).

    The ability of misleading marketing efforts to tempt people to deny or excuse the unnecessary harmfulness of their chosen ways of enjoying ‘better than basic decent lives’ is potentially the most catastrophic thing that humans have developed. The resulting unsustainable harmful over-developed consumption by supposedly 'more advanced' people is a catastrophe. That portion of humanity 'is the asteroid ruining the future of humanity'.

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