Arguments
2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1
Posted on 4 January 2020 by John Hartz
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Dec 29, 2019 through Sat, Jan 4, 2020
Editor's Pick
There Is No Safe Global Warming
Australia Bushfire - Shutterstock
Safety is something we all crave. It’s human nature.
And so perhaps it’s not surprising that we’ve spent the past decade or so outlining what a “safe” level of global warming is. Language reflecting the conception of “safe” global heating abounds in scientific literature, climate negotiations, and the press. The Paris Agreement enshrined the idea that 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) as pretty safe. Advocacy from small island nations and others has made a compelling case that 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) would be safer still, allowing, at least, for their continued existence. At various times, each of these levels of heating have been called a “guardrail,” “defence line,” and “buffer zone.” On one side, dangerous climate change. On the other, something we can figure out and adapt to if we play our cards right.
Recently, the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold appears to have won out as our best bet for safety. And over the next decade, the world will decide its fate of whether it can limit heating to within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial temperatures. But we don’t have to wait to find out if that level of heating is safe because the answer is right in front of us. Spoiler: It’s not.
There Is No Safe Global Warming by Brian Kahn, Earther, Gizmodo, Jan 4, 2020
Articles Linked to on Facebook
Sun, Dec 29, 2019
- Alaska set to finish 2019 with record warm year by Yereth Rosen, Reuters, Dec 26, 2019
- In 2019 Climate Change Made These 15 Natural Disasters Even Worse by Eric Mack, Science, Forbes, Dec 27, 2019
- 2019 in review: Polarised world entering era of climate impacts by Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Dec 20, 2019
- How to talk about climate change with family and friends over the holidays by Robert Webster, Climate Home News, Dec 20, 2019
- DOCUMENTARY: Climate skeptic examines what scientists know and how they know it, YouTube Video by David Schechter, Verify Road Trip, Dec 28, 2019
- Trees for Life launches bold initiative to restore wild forests in the Scotland Highlands by Lisa Walden, Wildlife Country Living (UK), Dec 28, 2019
- B.C.'s clear-cut forests are 'dead zones,' emitting more greenhouse gases than fossil fuels, report finds by Clare Hennig, CBC News, Dec 18, 2019
- Climate Reporting in 2019: A Year of Warnings. And Also Hope. by Christopher Flavelle, Climate Fwd, New York Times, Dec 25, 2019
Mon, Dec 30, 2019
- Climate change denial was defeated in 2019. But what comes next won't be easier, Opinion by Carlo Invernizzi-Accetti, Comment is Free, Dec 29, 2019
- What is climate change adaptation, and why does it matter? by Daisy Simmons, Yale Climate Connections, Dec 30, 2109
- Greta Thunberg and David Attenborough unite to call for climate change action at next UN summit, Paul White (AP) & Hannah McKay(Reuters), ABC (AU), Dec 30, 2019
- 5 Things That Went Right for Climate Action in 2019, Opinion by Ayana Elizabeth Johnson, Observations, Scientific American, Dec 30, 2019
- What the world will look like in 2040 A.D. , Interview by Amy Brady, Yale Climate Connections, Dec 23, 2019
- The Lost Decade: How We Awoke To Climate Change Only To Squander Every Chance To Act by John Vidal, HuffPost, Dec 30, 2019
Tue, Dec 31, 2019
- 20 Ways To Be A Happier Person In 2020, According To Therapists by Dominique Astorino, HuffPost, Dec 30, 2019
- 7 science-based strategies to boost your willpower and succeed with your New Year’s resolutions by Jelena Kecmanovic, The Conversation US, Dec 17, 2019
- Australia’s hellish heat wave and wildfires, explained by Umair Irfan, Energy & Environment, Vox, Dec 30, 2019
- 'There's definitely a warming trend. You can't not see it': Our year of wild weather by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Dec 31, 2019
- Australia fires: Military to be deployed to help rescue effort, BBC News, Dec 31, 2019
- The climate crisis is like a world war. So let’s talk about rationing, Opinion by Eleanor Boyle, Globe & Mail (CA), Dec 14, 2019
- This Was the Decade Climate Scientists Stopped Being Polite by Bob Berwyn, Earther, Gizmodo, Dec 31, 2019
- Australia’s Angry Summer: This Is What Climate Change Looks Like, Opinion by Nerilie Abram, Observations, Scientific American, Dec 31, 2019
Wed, Jan 1, 2020
- Global Apathy Toward the Fires in Australia Is a Scary Portent for the Future by David Wallace-Wells, Life After Warming, Intelligencer, New York Magazine, Dec 31, 2019
- Hurricanes, climate change, and the decline of the Maya by Rachel Fritts, Science, Ars Technica, Dec 31, 2019
- I'm using all my strength to fight climate change, says Merkel, Reuters, Dec 30, 2019
- California will require solar panels on all new homes. That’s not necessarily a good thing. by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Dec 31, 2019
- Australia fires: nine dead and hundreds of properties destroyed, with worse to come by Ben Smee, Calla Wahlquist & Helen Davidson, Guardian, Jan 1, 2020
- We know this disaster is unprecedented – no amount of Scott Morrison spin can hide it, Opinion by Lenore Taylor, Comment is Free, Guardian, Dec 31, 2019
- The 2010s were a lost decade for climate. We can’t afford a repeat, scientists warn. by Sarah Kaplan, Science, Washington Post, Dec 31, 2019
- 7 Numbers Show How Dire Climate Change Got This Decade by Sarah Ruiz-Grossman & Lydia O'Connor, HuffPost US, Dec 30, 2019
Thu, Jan 2, 2020
- As electric vehicles proliferate globally, the U.S. Big 3 are idle by Will Dubitsky, Analysis, National Observer (CA), Dec 31, 2019
- 28 Numbers Explain The State Of Planet Earth In 2019 by Kyla Mandel, HuffPost, Dec 24, 2019
- Science Under Attack: How Trump Is Sidelining Researchers and Their Work by Brad Plumer & Coral Davenport, Climate, New York Times, Dec 28, 2019
- We Need a Massive Climate War Effort—Now, Commentary by Kevin Drum, Politics, Mother Jones, Jan/Feb 2020 Print Edition
- Australia fires: tens of thousands stranded while attempting to flee by Ben Smee & Luke Henriques-Gomes, Guardian, Jan 2, 2020
- A New Year’s Climate Diet, Opinion by Paul Greenberg, New York Times, Dec 31, 2019
- The signal of human-caused climate change has emerged in everyday weather, study finds by Paul Freedman, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Jan 2, 2020
- Where Is the Green New Deal Headed in 2020? by Marianne Lavelle, InsideClimate News, Jan 2, 2020
Fri, Jan 3, 2020
- What Climate Change Tells Us about Being Human, Opinion by Genevieve Guenther, Observations, Scientific American, Dec 19, 2019
- A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO by Emily Becker, ENSO Blog, NOAA's Climate.gov, Dec 23, 2019
- Australia, your country is burning – dangerous climate change is here with you now, Opinion by Michael Mann, Comment is Free, Guardian, Jan 1, 2020
- Science can help us adapt to climate change, but first we have to admit it is happening by Graham Readfearn, Environment, Guardian, Jan 2, 2020
- 2020: A Year of Pipeline Court Fights, with One Lawsuit Headed to the Supreme Court by Phil McKenna, InsideClimate News, Jan 3, 2020
- Climate change: should we change the terminology? by Sara Rigby, Science Forum, Jan 3, 2020
- The sad truth about our boldest climate target by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Jan 3, 2020
- Yes, 1.5 Degrees Celsius Is Long Gone as a Climate Change Target, Commentary by Kevin Drum, Mother Jones, Jan 3, 2020
Sat, Jan 4, 2020
- 'It’s going to be vicious': South Coast towns ready for 'extreme conditions' by Peter Hannam & Kate Geraghty, Sydney Morning Herald, Jan 4, 2020
- New Zealand glaciers turn brown and 'could melt faster because of Australia's bushfires' by Gianluca Mezzofiore, CNN, Jan 2, 2020
- 'Silent death': Australia's bushfires push countless species to extinction by Graham Readfearn, Environment, Guardian, Jan 3, 2020
- 'Australia's first climate change refugees' by Deborah Snow, Peter Hannam & Natassia Chrysanthos, Sydney Morning Herald, Jan 4, 2020
- Fighters brace for 'long night' ahead after Sydney swelters through hottest ever day by Carrie Fellner & Pallavi Singhal, Sydney Morning Herald, Jan 4/5, 2020
- There Is No Safe Global Warming by Brian Kahn, Earther, Gizmodo, Jan 4, 2020
- Climate Science Discoveries of the Decade: New Risks Scientists Warned About in the 2010s by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Dec 28, 2019
- I'm a climate change hypocrite — but I'm making a New Year's resolution to do things differently, Opinion by Conal Hanna, ABC News (AU), Jan 2, 2020
"Safety is something we all crave. It’s human nature."
Nope. Quite a few people crave danger. This is probably a factor in all the crazy climate denialism. They are happy to take a risk with the whole planet. Some of the science underpinning risk taking:
www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201508/can-you-be-addicted-adrenaline
www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-main-ingredient/201207/seeking-danger-find-sense-life
The economist William Nordhaus claimed 4 degrees is the safe limit above which human casualties become serious. The trouble is we don't know this with any certainty, and his views are contested, and even a 1.5 degree world could lock in 4 degrees, it cant be ruled out given the understanding of tipping points, so I can't see any safe limit. By the time one is mathematically defined with precision it will probably be too late.
Jonathen Franzen says "We haven’t fixed climate change for 30 years, so we may as well give in to the fact that everything is screwed." This just seems intellectually lazy and defeatist.
" And over the next decade, the world will decide its fate of whether it can limit heating to within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial temperatures."
We have to reduce carbon emissions by an average of 15% every year just to have a 50/50 chance of staying below the 1.5C limit. The world isn't doing that.
"On one side, dangerous climate change. On the other, something we can figure out and adapt to if we play our cards right."
That thinking is the root of the problem. I appreciate the author is not using it as an excuse for a reduced level of corrective action - but many people do unjustifiably use the adaptation option as an excuse.
The We who are Benefiting face almost none of the consequences. And the ones facing the consequences may not be fortunate enough to have a scientific discovery magically allow them to 'adapt'. And even if they did, they would never 'get back' many of the resources that their predecessors Disappeared (like the extinctions of forms of life).
The current generation needs to adapt to the reality that materialistic consumerism has no future.
The Truth is that "On one side there are current day people who would have to work a little harder, less artificial assistance, and enjoy their life a little less, limiting what they do to activities that are not wasteful or harmful (with the more fortunate giving up some of their fortune and opportunity in order to sustainably improve the lives of the less fortunate), so that a current generation finally breaks the cycle of creating more harmful consequences that future generations of humanity will have to try to deal with. On the other, the future generations who can do nothing to get even with their selfish harmful predecessors."
The National Building Codes of the more developed nations require a 98% or better chance of a structure surviving the possible impacts that could happen to the structure. That means less than a 2% chance of any part of a structure failing.
Humanity's future environment should have an even lower chance of "Being Compromised", if the leadership of the current generation cared to think about it and lead based on that understanding.