Posted on 9 December 2023 by John Hartz

Story of the Week

Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit

The Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of keeping warming “well below” 2C and aiming to limit it to 1.5C is the global benchmark for climate action.

It was conceived to avoid the worst impacts of global temperature rise and minimise the risks – and costs – of reaching even higher warming levels.

Yet, the world is currently on a path to warming that is double the aspirational 1.5C limit. Continuing mitigation efforts in line with existing climate policies would see a 66% chance of warming reaching 3C this century.

In its 2022 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explored thousands of possible climate futures – including those that do limit warming to 1.5C, both with and without a temporary temperature “overshoot”.

These different modelled pathways provide insights into possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and temperature trajectories, depending on the many choices that global society makes.

The interactive below unpacks what future levels of emissions could mean for global average temperatures, if – or when – the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit might be breached, and, in some cases, by how much and for how long. 

Click here to access the entire article as originally posted on the Carbon Brief website.

Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit by Uta Kloenne, Dr Debbie Rosen, Gaurav Ganti, Dr Alexander Nauels, Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Prof Joeri Rogelj, Prof Piers Forster & Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Dec 8, 2023

Articles posted on Facebook 

Sunday, Dec 3, 2023

• Climate crisis: The 1.5C threshold explained by Martha Henriques , BBC News, Nov 30, 2023
• 2023 Hurricane Season Ends, Marked by Storms That ‘Really Rapidly Intensified’ by William B Davis & Judson Jones, US, New York Times, Dec 2, 2023
• Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels Exclusive: UAE’s Sultan Al Jaber says phase-out of coal, oil and gas would take world ‘back into caves' by Damian Carrington & Ben Stocktan, Environment, The Guardian, Dec 3, 2023
• US tees up Congress battle with $3bn Green Climate Fund pledge Vice-president Kamala Harris pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund at Cop28, which Congressional Republicans will likely try to block by Joe Lo, Finance, Climate Home News, Dec 2, 2023

Monday, Dec 4, 2023

• COP28 Climate Host: There’s ‘No Science’ Behind Calls to Eliminate Fossil Fuels The comments from the UAE oil CEO are "verging on climate denial," a scientist interviewed by The Guardian said by Peter Ward, News, Rolling Stone Magazine, Dec 3, 2023
• Pope Francis says climate has ‘run amok,’ pushes for policy change by Tara Suter, News, The Hill, Dec 2, 2023
• Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark? Assessing global mean temperature rise using the average warming over the previous one or two decades will delay formal recognition of when Earth breaches the Paris agreement’s 1.5 °C guard rail. Here is what’s needed to avoid the wait. by Richard A. Betts, Stephen E. Belcher, Leon Hermanson, Albert Klein Tank, Jason A. Lowe, Chris D. Jones, Colin P. Morice, Nick A. Rayner, Adam A. Scaife & Peter A. Stott, Comment, Nature, Dec 1, 2023
• Cop28 chief insists he ‘respects climate science’ in bid to quell uproar over oil phase-out comments Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber says his words have been ‘taken out of context’ after being slammed by climate groups over the suggestion there was ‘no science’ behind requiring the end of fossil fuels to limit temperature rise by Stuti Mishra, Climate Change, The Independent (UK), Dec 4, 2023

Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

• Don’t be fooled: CCS is no solution to oil and gas emissions The oil and gas industry wants you to believe it can capture its emissions and keep drilling as usual. That’s no way to avert climate chaos, Opinion by Laurence Tubiana & Emmanuel Guérin, Comment, Climate Home News, Dec 4, 2023
• In a Headline-Making Report, an Overlooked Insight About Carbon Removal A new climate report says we must phase out fossil fuels — and ramp up CDR. by Robinson Meyer, Spark, Heatmap, Dec 4, 2023
• At a glance - Has the greenhouse effect been falsified? by John Mason & Baebel Winkler, Skeptical Scioence, Nov 5, 2023
• Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels to hit record high Projected rate of warming has not improved in past two years, analysis Confused about the term COP delegates keep throwing around? We’ve got you covered. Hint: It’s critical to the future of humanity.shows by Ajit Niranjan, Environment, The Guardian, May 5, 2023

Wednesday, Dec 6, 2023

• An Inevitable Showdown With the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Brewing at COP28 Oil, gas and coal companies sent a record number of lobbyists to the talks in Dubai, and their alignment with extreme right-wing leaders could scuttle global consensus on climate. by Bob Berwyn, Politics & Policy, Inside Climate News, Dec 5, 2023
• Q&A: Why defining the ‘phaseout’ of ‘unabated’ fossil fuels is so important at COP28 by Molly Lempriere & Simon Evans, UN Climate Talks, Carbon Brief, Dec 5, 2023
• WTF is the ‘Global Stocktake’? We explain the ‘heart’ of COP28 Confused about the term COP delegates keep throwing around? We’ve got you covered. Hint: It’s critical to the future of humanity. by Zia Weise, Politico EU, Dec 4, 2023
• Q&A: Climate tipping points have put Earth on ‘disastrous trajectory’, says new report The Earth is on a “disastrous trajectory” with “no adequate global governance” to deal with the scale of threats posed by climate tipping points, warns a major new report. by Ayesha Tandon, Emissions, Carbon Brief, Dec 6, 2023

Thursday, Dec 7, 2023

• The past decade was the hottest on record as climate change ‘surged alarmingly,’ WMO reports by Laura Paddison & Brandon Miller, Climate, CNN, Dec 5, 2023
• As fossil fuel phase-out gathers steam, resistance builds Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey are among the most vocal opponents of a decision at Cop28 to phase out coal, oil and gas by Sebastian Rodriguez, Climate Home News, Dec 6, 2023
• Trump repeatedly denies climate science and says ‘we shouldn’t be worried about global warming’ Trump has previously also called climate change ‘nonexistent’ and ‘make-believe problem’ by Maroosha Muzaffar, News, The Independent (UK), Dec 6, 2023
• These small words could make or break the global climate summit by Laura Paddison, Climate, CNN, Dec 6, 2023

Friday, Dec 8, 2023

• Air-Conditioning Use Will Surge in a Warming World, U.N. Warns Electricity use for cooling could double by 2050, driving up the greenhouse gas emissions that cause warming. by Hiroko Tabuchi, Climate, New York Times, Dec 5, 2023
• Activists say their voices are stifled by increasing rules and restrictions at COP28 climate talks by Lujain Jo & Sibi Arasu, Climate, AP News, Dec 6, 2023
• Top climatologists slam Sultan Al Jaber's "no science" claim on fossil fuel phaseout “There is no scenario to limit warming to 1.5°C that does not include the rapid phase out of fossil fuels.” by Emily Atkin, Heated, Dec 07, 2023
• At COP28, More and More Scientists Say Overshooting 1.5 Degrees Is ‘Inevitable’ Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is a key Paris Agreement target. At the U.N. climate talks, a growing number of experts bluntly say they don’t think it's achievable. by Kistoffer Tigue, Today's Climate, Inside Climate News, Dec 5, 2023

Saturday, Dec 9, 2023

• Interactive: The pathways to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit by Uta Kloenne, Dr Debbie Rosen, Gaurav Ganti, Dr Alexander Nauels, Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Prof Joeri Rogelj, Prof Piers Forster & Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Dec 8, 2023
• Scientists: Climate change intensified the rains devastating East Africa An international team of climate scientists says the ongoing catastrophic rains in East Africa have been made worse by human-induced climate change by Carlos Mureithi, Technology, AP/ABC News, Dec 7, 2023
• Scientists to COP28: ‘We’re Clearly in The Danger Zone’ As this year’s climate talks head into their final days, a new report also highlights positive social tipping points that can drive “the odds in our favor.” by Bob Berwyn, Science, Inside Climte News, Dec 8, 2023
• With a New Speaker of the House, Billions in Climate and Energy Funding—Mostly to Red States—Hang in the Balance How House Speaker Mike Johnson is revealing key aspects of the Republican climate agenda moving forward Interview by Steve Curwood, "Living on Earth", Politics & Policy, Inside Climate News, Dec 9, 2023