Posted on 21 April 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

Story of the week

Our story of the week hinges on these words from the abstract of a fresh academic publication:

Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices.

That dry language and the arc of the authors' research findings unpacks as evidence-based headlines:

• Climate change damage could cost $38 trillion per year by 2050, study finds
• The Big Climate Costs That Lie Just Below the Surface
• New study calculates climate change’s economic bite will hit about $38 trillion a year by 2049
• Is $38 trillion a lot?
• Climate Change Will Cost $38 Trillion a Year. Who Will Pay for It?
• Global Heating Will Cost The World Economy $38 Trillion - A Year!

The paper's results will be refined, inevitably. With passing time the empirical, already-experienced evidence the paper relies upon to establish its projections will increasingly include measurable economic impact.  Meanwhile other researchers will doubtless be inspired to improve on this effort, "what if the authors are incorrect?" being a reasonable question to ask. Equally it's reasonable to ask "how wrong can they be?" Even supposing that the unfolding truth reveals the authors have delivered a 50% overshoot, 19 trillion dollars is not a trivial amount of economic opportunity to lose. Our ultimate truth may also include underestimation. For the time being, Stanford University's Marshall Burke may have the best assessment of this paper, for guiding our path forward: "I wouldn’t put a ton of weight on their specific numerical estimates, but I think the big picture is basically right." Marshall seems suitably cautious; when starting at $38T/year, plus or minus a lot still ends up as a big deal. The big picture includes that we have other urgent needs for funds on this scale and can't afford accidental (or intentional) wasted opportunity costs of this magnitude. Procrastination on dealing with our climate problem loses us important options. 

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before April 14

• Shell says it `lobbies for energy transition` during climate ruling appeal, The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan. Company is fighting Dutch court ruling that says it must emit 45% less CO2 by 2030 than in 2019
• Jail for holding a placard? Protest over the climate crisis is being brutally suppressed | Natasha Walter, The Guardian, Natasha Walter. The legal repression of activism has been fast and frightening, yet it won’t make protesters disappear and only sows division
• Review of Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth) reveals numerous, well-known misinformation talking points and inaccuracies, Science Feedback, Darrik Burns (Editor).
• Trump allies target NOAA climate research, E&E News, Scott Waldmann. A planning document for a second Trump administration also recommends the National Weather Service commercialize its forecasting operations.
• Brazil’s cattle industry could suffer major losses without climate policies, report says, Mongabay, Maxwell Radwin.

April 14

• 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz. A list of 31 news and opinion articles we shared during the week
• How to spot five of the fossil fuel industry`s biggest disinformation tactics, The Guardian, Amy Westervelt and Kyle Pope. Amy Westervelt and Kyle Pope have covered climate disinformation for a combined 20-plus years – here’s their guide on how to decode it
• ‘Grownup’ leaders are pushing us towards catastrophe, says former US climate chief, Environment, Thje Observer/The Guardian, Fiona Harvey. "Paris agreement negotiator Todd Stern attacks premiers who say that decarbonisation programmes are unrealistic and should be slowed down."

• Great Barrier Reef suffering ‘most severe’ coral bleaching on record as footage shows damage 18 metres down, Environment, The Guardian, Sharlotte Thou & Adam Morton. "Marine researcher ‘devastated’ by widespread event that is affecting coral species usually resistant to bleaching"

April 15

• Global heating pushes coral reefs towards worst planet-wide mass bleaching on record, The Guardian, Graham Readfearn. The percentage of reef areas experiencing bleaching-level heat stress is increasing by about 1% a week, scientists say
• Climate change `bait and switch` threatens sharks and rays, Carbon Brief, Giuliana Viglione. Cold-blooded sea creatures seeking refuge from warming ocean waters may find themselves at increasing risk of deadly cold shocks due to changes in ocean currents, new research warns.
• As Climate Change Intensifies Wildfire Risk, Prescribed Burns Prove Their Worth in the Heat-Stressed Plains of the Texas Panhandle, Inside Climate News, Keaton Peters. In a small Texas city, officials say land previously treated with a prescribed burn stopped the Windy Deuce Fire from entering neighborhoods. But the practice of intentionally burning excess vegetation has faced opposition from some private landowners.

April 16

• The world`s 4th coral bleaching event has officially arrived, Grist, Sachi Kitajima Mulkey. Scientists say it's shaping up to be the worst one yet.
• EPA to release multiple power sector rules next week, E&E News, Jean Chemnick . "Up to four regulations would cover a variety of pollutants including carbon dioxide."
• The climate lies you'll hear this year, Youtube, Simon Clark. This year you will be lied to! Let me help prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate.
• A parched place: the Alberta drought crisis is bigger than one summer, The Narwhal, Drew Anderson. "The province says it will soon release its emergency response plan and details on how water will be shared as it runs dry. But Alberta has been outspending the water supply for decades."

April 17

• Climate change likely killed tens of thousands of people in 2023, Yale Climate Connections, Samantha Harrington. And that’s an extremely conservative estimate.
• Climate crisis: average world incomes to drop by nearly a fifth by 2050, The Guardian, Jonathan Watts. Cost of environmental damage will be six times higher than price of limiting global heating to 2C, study finds
• Is $38 trillion a lot?, The Crucial Years, Bill McKibben. Because that's what we're throwing away
• Shell says doing more to rein in global warming is 'unrealistic', Quartz, Melvin Backman. It's telling shareholders to vote down a proposal that it bolster its efforts to fight climate change

April 18

• Lethal heatwave in Sahel worsened by fossil fuel burning, study finds, The Guardian, Jonathan Watts. Deaths from record temperatures in Mali reportedly led to full morgues turning away bodies this month
• Human-induced' climate change behind deadly Sahel heat wave: Study, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, AFP.

April 19

• EGU2024 - An intense week of joining sessions virtually, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler. A personal diary of the happenings at a large scientific conference from our volunteer Bärbel Winkler's perspective.
• Taking Big Oil to court for `climate homicide` isn`t as far-fetched as it sounds, Grist, Kate Yoder. Are fossil fuel companies guilty of actual murder?
• A primer on cloud seeding, The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler. no, it did not cause the flooding in Dubai
• Next UN climate talks are critical to plot aid for poorer nations, says incoming president, The Independent News, Seth Borenstein. The man who will run this year’s United Nations climate talks in November views the upcoming negotiations as a key link in international efforts to curb worsening global warming — if they can be successful
• EGU Blogs » GeoLog » The EGU Great Debate: About the Anthropocene, scientists and comfort zones? The EGU Great Debate: About the Anthropocene, scientists and comfort zones?, EGU Blogs, Maria Scheel.
• Earth’s record hot streak might be a sign of a new climate era, Climate-Environment, Washington Post, Sarah Kaplan.

April 20

• Global Heating Will Cost The World Economy $38 Trillion - A Year!, CleanTechnica, Steve Hanley.

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!