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Announcing the Uncertainty Handbook

Posted on 6 July 2015 by Guest Author

by Adam Corner

UHB-EN-ThumbHave you ever struggled with the communication of climate change uncertainties? Are you frustrated by climate sceptics using uncertainty - inherent in any area of complex science - as a justification for delaying policy responses? Then the new ‘Uncertainty Handbook’ - a collaboration between the University of Bristol and Climate Outreach (former COIN) - is for you. The handbook was authored by Dr. Adam Corner (Climate Outreach), Professor Stephan Lewandowsky (University of Bristol), Dr Mary Phillips (University of Bristol) and Olga Roberts (Climate Outreach). All are experts in their fields and have expertise relating to the role of uncertainty in climate change or how best to communicate it.

The Handbook distills the most important research findings and expert advice on communicating uncertainty into a few pages of practical, easy-to-apply techniques, providing scientists, policymakers and campaigners with the tools they need to communicate more effectively around climate change. Download the report here, and check out our 12 principles for more effectively communicating climate change uncertainty

1. Manage your audience’s expectations

People expect science to provide definite ‘answers’, whereas in reality it is a method for asking questions about the world. So manage people’s expectations, and use plenty of analogies from ‘everyday life’ so people can see that uncertainties are everywhere - not just in climate science.

2. Start with what you know, not what you don’t know

Too often, communicators give the caveats before the take-home message. On many fundamental questions — such as ‘are humans causing climate change?’ and ‘will we cause unprecedented changes to our climate if we don’t reduce the amount of carbon that we burn?’— the science is effectively settled.

3. Be clear about the scientific consensus

Having a clear and consistent message about the scientific consensus is important as it influences whether people see climate change as a problem that requires an urgent societal response. Use clear graphics like a pie-chart, use a ‘messenger’ who is trustworthy to communicate the consensus, and try to find the closest match between the values of your audience and those of the person communicating the consensus message.

4. Shift from ‘uncertainty’ to ‘risk’

Most people are used to dealing with the idea of ‘risk’. It is the language of the insurance, health and national security sectors. So for many audiences — politicians, business leaders, or the military — talking about the risks of climate change is likely to be more effective than talking  about the uncertainties.

5. Be clear about the type of uncertainty you are talking about

A common strategy of sceptics is to intentionally confuse and conflate different types of uncertainty. So, it’s critical to be clear what type of uncertainty you’re talking about - causes, impacts, policies or solutions - and adopt appropriate language for each.

6. Understand what is driving people’s views about climate change

Uncertainty about climate change is higher among people with right-leaning political values. However, a growing body of research points to ways of communicating

about climate change that do not threaten conservative belief systems, or which use language that better resonates with the values of the centre-right.

7. The most important question for climate impacts is ‘when’, not ‘if’

Climate change predictions are usually communicated using a standard ‘uncertain outcome’ format. So a statement might say that sea levels will rise by “between 25 and 68cm, with 50cm being the average projection, by 2072”. But flip the statement around — using an ‘uncertain time’ framing — and suddenly it is clear that the question is whennot if sea levels will rise by 50cm: “Sea levels will rise by at least 50 cm, and this will occur at some time between 2060 and 2093”.

8. Communicate through images and stories

Most people understand the world through stories and images, not lists of numbers, probability statements or technical graphs, and so finding ways of translating and interpreting the technical language found in scientific reports into something more engaging is crucial. A visual artist can capture the concept of sea-level rise better than any graph, and still be factually accurate if they use scientific projections to inform their work.

9Highlight the ‘positives’ of uncertainty

Research has found that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty. A ‘positive’ framing of uncertain information would indicate that lossesmight not happen if preventative action was taken.

10. Communicate effectively about climate impacts

The question ‘is this weather event caused by climate change?’ is misplaced. When someone has a weak immune system, they are more susceptible to a range of diseases, and no one asks whether each illness was ‘caused’ by a weak immune system. The same logic applies to climate change and some extreme weather events: they are made more likely, and more severe, by climate change.

11. Have a conversation, not an argument

Despite the disproportionate media attention given to ‘sceptics’, most people simply don’t talk or think about climate change all that much. This means that the very act of having a conversation about climate change — not an argument or repeating a ‘one-shot’ slogan — can be a powerful method of public engagement.

12. Tell a human story not a scientific one

The amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted over the next 50 years will determine the extent to which our climate changes. So what we choose to do — and how quickly we can muster the collective willpower to do it — is an uncertainty that dwarfs all others.

This article was first published by the Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN)

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Comments 1 to 2:

  1. Communicate through images and stories

    I like to use manual gestures in explaining different aspects of global warming. It gives an advantage over mere verbalization.

    When I explain how ice is shrinking in the Arctic Ocean I form a circle with the thumbs and forefingers of my hands representing the nearly circular ice cap. Then I "shrink” the circle to indicate its loss of extent. Like this, with the parenthesis representing my fingers on both hands and the zero representing my face: ( (0) ).

    When indicating the loss of Arctic ice thickness I put my forefinger and thumb horizontally in parallel to each other and move them closer to each other to indicate shrinking thickness. I also use the Navy's CICE ice thickness map. I make it a point to emphasize that the US Navy puts those maps out. That projects an air of authority in the public's mind.

    Then there is the issue of the colder than average winters in the United States. I like to state that during our last winter "97-99% of our earth was as warm, warmer and hotter than average while only 1-3% was colder”. The United States is only 1.8% of the world’s surface and only a third of it was colder.

    As the old saying goes, one picture is worth a thousand words so if possible I would go to GISS temp and show or print out the anomaly maps. They can immediately see and intuitively understand the color coding with blue being colder and only covering a small part of the Earth. Then I point to Alaska and Siberia's red and dark red indicating that it was 7-15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average for February, 2015. Juxtaposing Alaska with the Eastern states is important because it gives your audience an example of how dramatic a difference there is within the continental United States.

    I often time like to say “big picture, little picture”. Then I state that “skeptics” always look at the “little picture”. I put out my open palms, vertically and in front of me, spread a couple feet apart to show the “big picture” after which I put my palms closer together to indicate the “little picture” - how they view things out of context. Like this, spread apart in front of my face: |---0---|; then I shrink it down like this, |-0-|. I thus imitate the appearance of a horse with blinders.

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  2. I find uncertainties in climate change are like the uncertainties in Darwinism.  You can happily pick holes in any single area - it is the total and vast picture encompassing a range of disciplines that gives overwhelming certainty. Not many are willing to plough through Darwin's treatise and similarly not many can be bothered in this case to acquaint themselves with the facts.

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