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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 52051 to 52100:

  1. Climate sensitivity is low
    Try reading the intermediate or advanced version of the article (or the appropriate chapter in the IPCC report). You will see that there are empirical studies of climate sensitivity. Read deeper into the papers and you will see that noone assumes climate is in equilibrium - the utility of term does not require it. Your comments on cloud feedbacks would have been justified for TAR but they are far better quantified now. Note also that models are doing a pretty good job of estimating temperature trends, even something as primitive as that used by the Broecker in 1975 ("Climatic change; are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?" Science, v 189, n 4201, p 460-3, 8 Aug. 1975") which got temp for 2010 better good.
  2. Climate sensitivity is low
    Using a GCM to predict/verify sensitivity is flawed and hubris. We have a lot of known unknowns in the GCMs. They are not established science, but SWAGs. Assuming the climate is ever in equilibrium as the basis for a calculation is absurd. It is never, ever, in equilibrium. If it were, we would not see the changes that have occurred in the past. Until science has a better handle on clouds (and many other second-order feedbacks), any attempts to quantify sensitivity are relying on guessing about past events, but not on understanding why.
  3. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Help! Can someone please straighten out this (possibly) local skeptic? These are comments in "Vote for a Carbon Tax" (from CP) copied into a local paper's blog. http://www.athenstalks.com/vote-carbon-tax?page=1#comment609478 @catman: From the linked article (this article): "Similarly, the measured global surface warming trend over the past 16 years is approximately 0.09 ± 0.13°C per decade according to NASA, as anyone can check for themselves by using the Skeptical Science Temperature Trend Calculator. The surface warming is not statistically significant — again, the uncertainty is larger than the trend, and possible values range from -0.04 to +0.22°C per decade. However, the most likely value is still a positive one, meaning the Earth's surface has most likely warmed 0.09°C per decade, or 0.14°C total for the period of late 1996 thorugh late 2012. Zero warming is one possibility within the range of uncertainty, but it would take a different statistical test to show that there has been no surface warming over the past 16 years, and that test would fail" Am I misinterpreting this? Do these two paragraphs basically say, "we don't have statistical proof of warming, but that doesn't mean it isn't getting warmer"??? "most likely warmed 0.09C" Not even a tenth of a degree, and only "most likely" at that. Hell, I wasn't even denying the idea of temperature increases, but this is making me wonder more about that. When I looked into the data supporting global warming a while back, I came away convinced of two things: average global temperature has risen since 1958; and average global CO2 has risen since 1958. Figuring out which is cause or consequence of the other seemed speculative. Further speculation seemed necessary to affirmatively say that human activity has created warmer climates. This link offers perhaps the most compelling evidence for global warming: http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm However, there is still no direct link between human activity and temperature. It is all peripheral: A has increased since time x. B has increased since time x. B is proven to trap heat. Therefore, humans have affected the increase in A. That doesn't add up. Also, one has to enter the debate under the pretense of one specific time period: 1958 - to present. CO2 records prior to 1958, or otherwise prior to "industrialization" are measured using polar ice core air bubbles. This scientist argues that such methods of measurement are inaccurate: http://www.john-daly.com/zjiceco2.htm Additionally, if you look at year-by-year comparisons of average temperatures and average atmospheric CO2, you will see disproportionate peaks and valleys between the two. That is to say that years with exceptionally high CO2 levels do not always coincide with high-temp years. Year-by-year, it's hard to make the connection. But if you take the averages over the past 50 years you get the matching hockey stick graph. And that's assuming that the polar ice core measurements are true, despite the aforementioned argument that the displacement of water in ice makes the measured levels skewed. Again, I think it's a no-brainer to go with solar, hydro and nuclear (though the last one isn't my favorite). However, creating new taxes will neither solve the problem in time to save the Earth, nor will it actually push anyone to renewable sources. Until fossil fuel sources become so scarce that the cost skyrockets the shift probably won't happen. If these companies get taxed for carbon emmissions, they will just keep on keepin' on and pass the buck to the consumer. Kinda like smokers do with cigarettes.
  4. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    tommm, Figure 1 basically shows global heat content (not completely because we're missing some components, like ocean heat content below 2,000 meters, but we've got most of it). If there's a volcanic eruption, for example, which blocks sunlight, the planet as a whole will accumulate less heat (more is effectively deflected back into space) for a short period of time, until those particulates from the eruption wash out of the atmosphere. So during those timeframes we would expect a dip in global heat content. As for ENSO ocean heat exchanges, I don't know that the data resolution is good enough to see that. Especially since it's a 5-year running average, so it's somewhat smoothed out.
  5. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    I think this new post from Tamino also shows pretty conclusively how ludicrous is the "no warming for 16 years" meme; even when just considering surface temperature.
  6. Antarctica is gaining ice
    Can you adjust this page to take into account the most recent science on this topic? Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992-2008 from ERS and ICESat: Gains exceed losses – Presented by Jay Zwally, NASA Goddard I came to this site to learn more (I'm a mildly informed skeptic, hoping to be better informed, but I'm skeptical of most things), but after 10 minutes of research on this "myth", I am having trouble with your explanations. If the most recent research is showing ice mass gains, wouldn't ignoring that be denial? If the research is flawed, I want to know about the flaws. If it is too new to analyze, then mention that there is ongoing research that raises questions. If the researcher is known to be biased, show that. Or, if the research represents the best science on the subject, change your page to reflect it. (Maybe the skeptics aren't 100% wrong?) But to have a 2 year old page with information that seems out-of-date does not help me learn.
  7. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Thanks. Also, to help me understand the plots better, why would the dip in oceanic heat content in 1990 occur simultaneously for the shallow and deep ocean? Second, would I expect to see heat transfers from the air to the oceans (or the other way around) due to ENSO, or is that too small to be seen on this plot?
  8. 1934 - hottest year on record
    Going to have to update this rebuttal now:
    Global warming is directly linked to only a few weather events and climate trends. One of them, however, is warming itself, which could make 2012 a watershed climate change year in the U.S. More than superstorms, wildfires, and devastating drought, this year’s record-smashing spring and summer heat waves, with their melted airport runways and warped steel rail lines, are more evidence that climate change is real. Last week NOAA announced that 2012 was “likely” to be the warmest year on record in the 48 states, based on temperatures through November. At some point, however, likelihood turns into certainty. Does a warm December push the nation to the point where it is impossible for 2012 to be anything but the warmest year ever recorded in the U.S.? To answer that question Climate Central did the math, and the results are in.
    There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.
    [Source]
  9. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    Oddly I never seem to get any work units from CPN. Was an early participant, have some completed unit credits from way back when, but nothing new is put in my queue.
  10. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    tommm Also the dips around 1980-83 and 1990-93 correspond to the eruptions of Mt El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1992. The data has a pentadal (5 year) smoothing so that spreads out the effect a bit.
  11. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    climateprediction.net is back up. They've had problems with power cuts due to a fire at their local electricity sub-station. http://www.climateprediction.net/news/climatepredictionnet-unscheduled-downtime-fire-local-electricity-substation
  12. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    tommm: From about 1940 to 1970 there was global cooling due to the widespread presence of sunlight-reflecting aerosols in the atmosphere. As such I expect the net energy content of the Earth was decreasing during that time frame. By 1970 increased environmental regulation, combined with the overpowering of the aerosol forcing by greenhouse forcing - and voilà! Warming.
  13. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Hi Folks, Can someone please explain why the sum of the three trends in Figure 1 is not monotonically increasing. For instance, there is a big dip on ocean heat content (0-700m) around 1966-67. Is this noise, or does it imply the energy is being transferred to some reservoir not shown in the plot? Thanks.
  14. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    As Climate Central makes clear...nonetheless the spin will still be entertaining.
  15. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Alpinist - that's for the US only.
  16. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    And then there's this from over at Climate Central....http://www.climatecentral.org/news/book-it-2012-the-hottest-year-on-record-15350 It'll be entertaining to watch the spin.
  17. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Zero warming is one possibility within the range of uncertainty, but it would take a different statistical test to show that there has been no surface warming over the past 16 years, and that test would fail.
    I don't expect you to do requests, but I have to say a post testing the 'no warming for 16 years' hypothesis would really useful. Deniers play tricks with words, and 'no statistically significant warming' has morphed into 'no warming'. A go to reference to demonstrate that fails would be really useful. Thanks for the R Pielke snr quote. Conflating surface temperatures with global warming is the corollary to 'no warming' and is all the rage amongst deniers at the moment.
  18. citizenschallenge at 01:50 AM on 14 December 2012
    This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Incidentally, How's that Monckton Cure for AIDS doing? Lord Monckton: "I've discovered a cure for HIV!" ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Though it sure would be fascinating to see the Lord's email exchanges with the blokes who have financed that fancy looking website. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (sniped ad hominen)
    Moderator Response: TC: Speculations about Christopher Monckton's mental state are, of course, ad hominen, and hence always of topic.
  19. There's no empirical evidence
    Aye, thanks Paul -- it's an obviously highly useful tool and easy enough that people who've never engaged the science can get a toehold for their motivation.
  20. There's no empirical evidence
    Good to hear! Thanks for the work in keeping your website going.
  21. There's no empirical evidence
    Folks, apologies for the WFT downtime - it was caused by an IP allocation cockup at my hosting provider, and as Doug guessed, I didn't notice for a day! Should be fixed now in DNS but it may take a while to propagate. Best wishes Paul
    Moderator Response: [DB] Thanks, Paul. If we can help in any way down the road, let us know.
  22. Sceptical Wombat at 21:48 PM on 13 December 2012
    This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    chriskoz @ 5 Monkton is an hereditary viscount and therefore perfectly entitled to call himself a lord. However hereditary lords are not automatically members of the House of Lords - they have elections and Monkton has never won a seat. Monkton likes to conflate the two issues - what a surprise - and wave his passport around to prove he is a viscount.
  23. Cornelius Breadbasket at 20:42 PM on 13 December 2012
    This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    mandas @1 - I don't think this article is intended to shame or convert Monckton himself, it is intended to arm those of us who are in discussion with people who believe him. I have already used this site twice in response to claims made by otherwise intelligent people quoting him in online forums. This article provides everything I needed to say in one well-written and accessible place.
  24. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Monckton has become an embarrassment to deniers by his embrace of right-wing wackiness like "birtherism". I am sure his espousal of causes like this is for financial reasons as he can command higher speaking fees. Like malamuddy did, one way to deal with Monckton is to point out the fantastical claims he has made over the years, like swearing out an affidavit claiming he has evidence concerning the birth certificate of the President of the United States. Indeed, the whole association of US climate denial with Creationism and birtherism is a gift that can keep on giving. It highlights the whole refusual to face evidence and facts that undermine a favoured ideology.
  25. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    mandas@1 We can ignore Monckton but the unfortunate fact is he seeks and get attention because of his outlandish behaviour, which suits his backers down to the ground. He is about to tour Australia and New Zealand again so it is most important that his fraudulent science is “again” exposed.
  26. There's no empirical evidence
    Many of us are wondering what's up w/Woodfortrees, Steve. It's much cited and well-liked by folks of all stripes. Hopefully the proprietor is having a nice vacation somewhere and simply hasn't noticed it's down. (OK, that's sounds pretty unlikely but I guess we may as well be optimistic.)
  27. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
    curiousd @124, if you look at the following diagram, you will see that one NO2 absorption band at around 7.5 micrometers wavelength (1300 cm-1 wave number) is shared with one of the absorption bands for CH4. Removing CH4 from Archer's model greatly reduces the size of the absorption band at 1300 cm-1; but, presumably, the remainder is the absorption by NO2. I have checked and NO2 is accounted for in the model, but its concentration cannot be adjusted in Archer's version. Please note that the solar and OLR spectrums shown in the diagram above are for globally averaged values. The actual power received from the sun by a surface at right angles to the incident sunlight is about four times that shown; and the actual black body spectrum of the sun, prior to attenuation by distance is about 4 million times greater than that from OLR. Further, the OLR is for a very humid clear sky situation, and is not typical.
  28. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    malamuddy@3, Thanks for turning my attention to this "Democratic Labor Party" in Wagga. I didn't know about it either. With just one MP in Senate, they cannot make any difference to the political scene. After having invited this monkey clown calling himself a "lord" to perform another silly stunt (like those he performed in Doha and last year in Durban), their rating should drop even lower and we should see them losing the lonely seat soon.
  29. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    mandas @1 - Monckton is just the vehicle through which we debunk this pervasive 'no warming in 16 years' myth. He's just a tool (by which sense of the word, I'll let you decide).
  30. There's no empirical evidence
    My apologies for what is likely an off-topic comment, but I wasn't sure of a better place to put the question. Has the Woodfortrees website moved? Google claims it should be at woodfortrees.org, but there's nothing there but an apache tomcat setup page. I hope nothings happened to the site - it's very handy.
  31. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
    I meant to say, if you set the methane to zero in the David Archer program the little peak still shows up. Anyone know what this is?
  32. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
    What is the tiny peak at about 1300 wave numbers in fig. 3? Although it is in the vicinity of methane, if you set the methane to zero in the David Archer program. Also in Fig. 1 above that peak shows up with no atmosphere. ?????
  33. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    As it turns out Monkton has been booked for a gig in Wagga Wagga (Australia), sponsored by the Democratic Labor Party, a right wing political outfit that most people thought was defunct. A lecturer at our local university wrote a letter to the Wagga Advertiser pointing out that this was a rather silly thing to do. Monkton of Brenchly replied with a typically arrogant tirade, beginning "A Mr White wrote ..." Below is a letter I have written in response, which may or may not get published. It has no literary merit but, perhaps, suggests a way in which we should deal with this person. A Mr Monkton has recently written to your paper (11 December) in response to a letter about Global Warming from Dr Graeme White. We are indeed fortunate to have the benefit of Mr Monkton’s opinions. As he so ably demonstrated in his letter he has such great expertise in this area that he was able, without the need for evidence, to simply dismiss Dr White’s arguments. In fact we have it on Mr Monkton’s own say so that his expertise in this area ranks with that of Albert Einstein because both of them have written a paper that was not peer reviewed. But not just expertise in science. He has such a deep knowledge of economics that he can wave away the opinions of the great majority of economists who support carbon pricing, such an all-encompassing understanding of logic that he can spell Aristotle and such mastery of mathematics that no other mathematician can understand his calculations. Could this possibly be the same Monckton who has variously said that he is a member of the House of Lords, that he is the proud owner of a self awarded Nobel Peace Prize, the discoverer of a single cure for AIDS, colds and influenza and the man who has been able to prove mathematically that Barack Obama’s birth certificate is a fake. No wonder he has added Dr White to the long list of people who deserve to be sued for ever questioning his obvious truthiness. We in Wagga are truly blessed that the DLP has been able to attract such an intellectual giant, such a great polymath, such a paragon of the British aristocracy to our humble town.
  34. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    Christopher Monckton impersonated a delegate from Myanmar
    If only he would accurately impersonate and act like someone who has a clue. I bet WUWT have applauded his latest bit of deceit, but I don't plan to visit there to find out. Are the faithful still waiting for Monckton's Miracle Cure for AIDS, MS and (no doubt) the common cold to materialise?
  35. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    I know Monckton is one of the darlings of the denialist community, but I would like to suggest that we stop focussing on him and stop writing long posts debunking his nonsense. Every day that passes shows just how delusional he is, and it may be time to treat him just like a troll. Take away his oxygen by ignoring him.
  36. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    Hmmmm ... climateprediction.net seems to be off the air at present. Perhaps it is being overloaded by prospective SkS team members? "8-)
  37. AGU 2012 - Solving the Climate Problem
    climate scientists tend to be too conservative
    That seems to be borne out by the seemingly increasing frequency with which I have been seeing the possibility of 4 - 6 degrees C warming being raised recently. 2 degrees sounds positively balmy by comparison, in spite of the dramatic changes we are seeing to places like the Arctic after less than 1 degree of warming. We have known for a while that actual emissions have been exceeding the levels predicted to push us past 2 degrees, but caution has dictated that we avoid issuing such 'alarming' projections. Me? I'm alarmed!
  38. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    :-) I've been running this on various CPUs since it was only SETI. I'm on the team of a company that no longer exists; so, I'll probably start giving credit to the SKS team. ClimatePrediction is active on my work machine, but BOINC is saying the project is not currently available when I try a new account on my personal machine. I wonder if the SKS fans have overloaded the CP site. World Community Grid also has some interesting sub-projects, including one on materials research for some form of alternate energy (solar?).
  39. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    A few additional climate science related citizen science efforts of note that involve more interaction and less CPU effort / grunt time, but are equally valuable ... www.cyclonecenter.org - reclassifying the global tropical storm records from the whole satellite era. www.oldweather.org - digitizing old marine logbook data to improve our knowledge of historical marine surface climate changes. www.data-rescue-at-home.org - digitizing old land and upper air data records. Pre-1950 there is as much in-situ data in hard copy or image only format as there is digitized. These 'unknown knowns' could literally transform our ability to characterize long-term changes in climate. The good news is that anyone can help us to reduce the fog of uncertainty in historical climate records. Your analysis and clicks in any of the above can really help us to improve our collective knowledge of historical climate changes.
  40. The Latest Pre-Bunked Denialist Letter in Lieu of Real Science
    After doing so, I find that Brian's argument is one of the more cogent I've seen from a Heartland shill. And the more passionate elements of the assertion (about 99% of the comment) are, coming from an expert like Brian, quite the compliment. Everyone, a big shout out toward the apparatchik hives of greater DC! Alas, I suspect this will be deleted, since it is in response to a deleted comment. However, perhaps this request will be left: Brian, can you explain why you once felt it necessary to claim that "I'm a thorough carbon dioxide climate change denialist and I wouldn't believe in carbon dioxide induced climate change at gunpoint - because it is physically impossible." Now that's a good, skeptical, open mind at work.
  41. Participate in Citizen Science with the new SkS BOINC team
    All my spare CPU cycles are on Climate Prediction for the 350 team. Started years ago with SETI.
  42. Latest summary confirms death of Chacaltaya glacier, and acceleration of global glacier shrinkage in the 2000s
    Kiwiiano asks about reduced snowfall. The critical factor in the demise of Chac' was cloud cover reduction since about 1980. No cloud means no snow replacement during the short snow season but crucially it means no shade from the intense tropical sunlight which, at that altitude drives very rapid sublimation of ice to water vapour. Sunlight warming peripheral rocks of the glacier would also have caused more melting than in earlier times. There isn't a weather station in the Chac' valley but near-by monitoring stations showed only margin warming and certainly not enough to melt ice significantly. One has to be careful to read widely and take into account all the variables and even then it is hard to draw solid conclusions. Sorry I've lost the link to this information now but it was from Bolivia,-The Monday Morning Newsletter or something like that and mostly written in Spanish.
  43. Newest Yale Forum Video: A ‘Play-by-Play’ on Sandy with Kerry Emanuel
    Tom Curtis@13 In baseball terms you just smacked a hard line drive that fracture the center-fielder's hand and bounced into the stands for a ground rule double; this, happening with two outs in the ninth, destroyed climateadj's no hitter. All that effort he put into his web site and you just shot him down in under a 1000 words. What is it they say about lies, damn lies, and inaccurate statistical interpretation with bias limits and false equivalency?
  44. The Latest Pre-Bunked Denialist Letter in Lieu of Real Science
    DSL@43 You can read the snipped text since it has only been commented out in the HTML. View the page-source. Sorry, can not contribute anything else of use to this thread.
  45. AGU 2012 - Solving the Climate Problem
    Eidolon, I'm not going to touch the population and immigration comments. However, for your heat argument, go here, read the main article, and then post any related questions or comments in that stream. Someone will respond. The combined comments stream is watched quite closely.
  46. AGU 2012 - Solving the Climate Problem
    Last night, I used the stove to make dinner. I then had a hot shower and, as it was cold last night, I put on the electric blanket. In other words, I was producing heat. If 7 billion other people are also producing heat on a regular basis then maybe global warming has little to do with CO2 output and more to do with billions of people simply producing heat and releasing it into the atmosphere.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] No. You are off-topic on this thread. If you wish to continue this line of thought, please first read the post and all of the comments on this thread before commenting further. If so, please do so there, not here.

    Thank you DSL, for your sage advice and guidance to Eidolon.

  47. The Latest Pre-Bunked Denialist Letter in Lieu of Real Science
    Dang - I missed Brian's argument. I'm guessing it was Heartland par for the course: blah blah hoax blah blah liberal commie blah blah.
  48. Brian G Valentine at 07:47 AM on 12 December 2012
    The Latest Pre-Bunked Denialist Letter in Lieu of Real Science
    [Unproductive insult snipped]
    Moderator Response: [d_b] Please contribute comments at Skeptical Science to the extent you're able to further the conversation in a productive manner. If you're not able to be a useful part of the conversation, this is not a good place to spend your time writing comments.
  49. Past 150,000 Years of Sea Level History Suggests High Rates of Future Sea Level Rise
    Jim Baird - While a heat pipe avoids nutrient exchange, it's still a heat transfer in order to extract energy: cooling surface waters (increasing radiative imbalance) and warming deep waters (speeding deep ocean energy accumulation). As to the diurnal cycle, heat loss and gain are dependent on the gradient - more energy will be absorbed by a cooler ocean surface during the day, less emitted at night, and again an amplification of the radiative imbalance. OTEC may not be able to provide the warming mitigation you claim. This is, however, completely off topic for historic sea level rises. I would suggest a thread actually on geoengineering, such as this one.
  50. AGU 2012 - Solving the Climate Problem
    Ok, found the link on those colorful small banners... http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate_science_history.php

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