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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 55651 to 55700:

  1. Jeffrey Davis at 23:48 PM on 7 August 2012
    Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    H2O is plant food, too. So, apparently according to Christy nobody can drown.
  2. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    Excellent analysis as usual but, exactly how much notice do policymakers take of Christy? Are they fooled by him? Do they still see this as a debate? As well as the incredible spectacle of a "distinguished professor" (of the FFL-funded University of Abdication) asking politicians to rely upon Anthony Watts, I found his endorsement of the "we skeptics are like Galileo" fallacy and/or victim mentality astonishing. As for claiming that fossil fuels are good for us and/or that mitigation is hurting the poor; this is quite simply reality inversion: The problem with inverting reality (31 March 2012).
  3. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    It would be interesting to see what the surface temperature results would look like with the 'corrections' in the Watts/Christy paper... and then compare that to Christy's UAH satellite record and ask him to explain the discrepancies.
  4. Lars Karlsson at 21:13 PM on 7 August 2012
    Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    Regarding the model vs observation comparisons, notice that Christy writes: "The two satellite-based results (circles, UAH and RSS) have been proportionally adjusted so they represent surface variations for an apples-to-apples comparison."
  5. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    #2 and #4 KevinC and skywatcher, I can see why Christy would choose to start the baseline in 1979. It seems a reasonable thing to do as the measurements start then. But a bit of thought and some further looking would point out that choosing a starting point for comparison where the multi-model mean ENSO would be zero and the observations are net positive is poor analysis. Similarly if a 7 year mean were baselined using a 4 yr average. I suspect that because it helped give Christy the answer he was looking for, he didn't bother to look into it much more - simple confirmation bias. At least I hope that's what he did, rather than actually doing tetests and choosing to mislead Congress.
  6. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    #2 Kevin C - I think you're right about the baselining. If the 1979-83 observations are aligned with the 1979-83 model mean, the graph is skewed. By selecting just 1979-1983 as the baseline, Christy is able to align the model mean with a period (1979-1983) where UAH and other temperature series was running distinctly above the 1979-2012 trend. In the graph, there is also the question of how Christy calculated the 1979 datapoint for his running UAH mean. Given the UAH dataset runs from 1979, a centred average on 1979 will only have four points (1979, 80, 81 and 82), instead of the seven that most of the other points would have. The same issue is at the end of the dataset (How many datapoints contrinuted to the 2011 point?) That's a real problem in a graph presented as "7-year running averages". You should only have averages from 1982 to 2008 (Lowess smoothing can fill in the ends, but that's not what's presented). Consequence: The observations will run well below the model mean for the entire series, as the baseline period has a disproportionate influence of "El Nino" on the series. By setting the baseline to a peak in the observations (a peak not present by design in a multi-model mean), there is an offset of ~0.1C between the multimodel mean and the observations. Aligning the baselines properly over longer periods (at least through a couple of ENSO cycles), and I suspect this offset will disappear. The above graph is thus very deceptive. I can think of many descriptions for people who would produce a graph like this and present it before lawmakers, but I would fall foul of the Comments Policy.
  7. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    Is it easy to get the CMIP5 data for that figure? It would be interesting to look at longer timespans to address the baseline issue, and also to include my new HAD4krig reconstruction (a global version of HadCRUT4 using Kriging).
  8. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    Looking at the model-data discrepancy figure, Christy also seems to have done something odd with the baselines. The surface temperature records are lower than the model values for the entire (and ridiculously short) 1979-1983 baseline period. I'm guessing that the reason is the 7 years smooth. If those 5 years were hot (80, 81 and 83 were), and the years around them were cool (74-76 and 84-86 were cool), then the 7 year smooth will produce lower values. However it's looking as though the baseline period was a careful cherry-pick.
  9. Christy Once Again Misinforms Congress
    Forwarding this article to my senators. Every politician needs to see this, just in case they aren't already aware of Christy's bias.
  10. IPCC is alarmist
    This has to be the most pointless discussion I've encountered in several years, and that includes the engagement with Tim Curtin at OM, the SLoT thread, and everything Dan H has started at RC. What will be the ultimate bottom line if krisbaum is correct in feeling misled by Pachauri? Would it mean anything where WG1, WG2, or WG3 are concerned? And although it's probably against comment policy, I'll wager krisbaum has no problem with (-Snip-), and those are much more damaging than anything Pachauri has to say about bloody grey literature (as one can see from the variety of mainstream media outlets that are seemingly plugged directly into WUWT).
    Moderator Response: [DB] Comments policy violation snipped.
  11. Rob Honeycutt at 11:07 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    Very interesting, there are actually two different versions of this paper. The one that krisbaum cites includes the sentence about short atmospheric lifetime, etc. The version I found was published in GRL specifically has that line deleted. It looks to me like kris is citing from (maybe) a pre-press version of the paper (?). I find it interesting that that line was removed.
  12. Daniel Bailey at 10:52 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    It is duly noted that krisbaum blatantly is ignoring the tasks he has given himself in 81 and 94. Just as he ignored the text description for the animated GIF found on the host page:
    "The animation below shows the fire activity and smoke plumes in Russia and China in June/July 2012 and the consecutive transport of smoke across the Pacific. The MACC GFAS assimilation of Fire Radiative Power observations are superimposed over the combined organic matter and black carbon fields in the MACC global aerosol assimilation, which combines the smoke emissions calculated in GFAS with inventories of anthropogenic emissions and aerosol optical depth observations from space. Both types of observations are performed by the satellite-based MODIS instruments and NASA has provided the observation data."
    Also note that aerosols travel enormous distances across continents and oceans. And note that they are not evenly-mixed or distributed, unlike CO2: [Source]
  13. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @106, I explicitly referred you to the top center image for the discussion of aerosols. You will notice that it is labelled "AOT", standing for Aerosol Optical Thickness. There are certain minimum standards of conduct necessary for any rational discussion - honesty, consistent standards for your self and others, a willingness to cite relevant information etc. You have shown yourself consistently unwilling to abide by any such standard. Consequently my discussion with you is over. Until you undertake to show why it was reprehensible of the IPCC to cite Agassiz as the originator of the theory of ice ages; or to cite Newton's letter to Hooke in 1675 as the source of the famous quotation about standing on the shoulders of giants (two more of the supposedly dubious citations according to your favourite source), or admit that the quality of citations cannot be determined simply by looking at the immediate source and that your favourite source used a massively flawed methodology which is completely unable to justify the conclusions you, and they draw from it, there is nothing more to say.
  14. Rob Honeycutt at 10:40 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 109... We are clearly not looking at the same paper. You said the title of the paper was, "Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols." http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/sb/July-2004/Historical-changes.pdf
  15. IPCC is alarmist
    Rob @107 - CO is not an aerosol.
  16. IPCC is alarmist
    @Rob 105 'Anthropogenic atmospheric aerosols are believed to be a significant climate forcing agent, probably second only to greenhouse gases in their effect on global temperature in the past century [Houghton et al., 2001]. However, the history of atmospheric aerosols is not nearly as well known as that of most gases because of the short atmospheric lifetime of aerosols and thus their very heterogeneous spatial distribution. Moreover, the climate effect of aerosols is complex, as some aerosols cause cooling while others are believed to cause warming.' page 3.
  17. Rob Honeycutt at 10:33 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 104... And so you think that the large spacial distribution of CO presented in DB's gif is... bush fires? Maybe I've not been watching the news closely enough. Are there massive bush fires occurring in Beijing and Tianjin?
  18. IPCC is alarmist
    Tom@103 I was talking bout anthropogenic aerosols not emissions. Why post a diagram of CO, CH4 etc when they are NOT aerosols?
  19. Rob Honeycutt at 10:29 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 104... Ummm... No. Just read page three and there is nothing there that talks about the atmospheric lifetime or spacial distribution of black carbon. They discuss accumulation over time. There is certainly nothing there to support your 10 km statement.
  20. IPCC is alarmist
    Rob @101 - page 3 of the report Rob @102 - Bushfires for example generate huge amounts of carbon monoxide.
    Moderator Response: [DB] You have yet to fulfill the challenges you have assigned yourself in comments 81 and 94 earlier in this thread. You will be held accountable to fulfill those commitments.
  21. IPCC is alarmist
    To clarify, as can be seen in this image of various emissions with short dwell times in the atmosphere, they have, as Krisbaum puts it "a very heterogeneous spatial distribution": However, just because concentrations are strongest near there source, and fall of rapidly with distance does not mean emissions do not result in significant concentrations hundreds of miles away, or that relatively remote locations will not have sufficient concentration to track changes in emissions. Indeed, if you look at the record for aerosol emissions (center top), you will see that individual cities are not clearly delineated by the concentrations, as would be the case if their typical transit distance was limited to 10 kilometers. In that way, aerosols are different from NO2 (left top), where individual industrial centers are easily delineated. What is more, significant concentrations of aerosols are still found a couple of hundred miles of the coast, again showing the absurdity of the 10 km claim made by Krisbaum. So, once again, while Krisbaum purports to have a problem with the IPCC citing Popper's "The Logic of Scientific Discovery" on falsification, and Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" on paradigm shifts (just two of the very dubious claims of inadequate literature from Krisbaum's favourite source), he has no problem with citing non-academic websites and simply making "facts" up in support of his argument. Why then do we continue to tolerate his sloganeering? His own words have thoroughly discredited him; as has his refusal to look at the particular use made of particular citations for which he condemns the IPCC.
  22. Rob Honeycutt at 10:16 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum... I believe if you're talking carbon monoxide aerosols that would be generally accepted as anthropogenic, pretty much without saying. Unless you can think of other large sources of carbon monoxide.
  23. Rob Honeycutt at 10:11 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 95... Upon a quick read of the paper you cited I can't find any reference even to the atmospheric lifetime or spacial distribution of black carbon. I don't think you've read the paper.
  24. IPCC is alarmist
    DB: i'm pretty sure you just violated your own posting rules by putting up an animated giff without any references or source whatso-ever.. How do i know you didnt just draw that animation? Where's it from? whats it really mean?
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] The source website for that image is http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/. The image itself can be found here.

    Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

    Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts, accuse others of deception and make personal attacks on other participants here, make things up and continually complain about moderation. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.

    Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

    Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

  25. Rob Honeycutt at 10:07 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 94... Now wait a minute. When I read back on your quotes from Pachauri none of them includes a statement saying that the IPCC uses "only" peer-reviewed literature. Pachauri states that the IPCC reports are "based" on peer reviewed literature. As I tried to point out before those statements do not preclude the use of non-peer reviewed literature. And as I've pointed out there are specific IPCC rules for the use of non-peer reviewed literature that Pachauri is certainly aware of. I would suggest that you're getting worked up over a narrow semantical interpretation of Pachauri's words.
  26. IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @89, it is common knowledge that aerosols have a short atmospheric lifetime. It is not common knowledge, because it it not true, that that life time is so short that SO2 emissions in North America and Europe will not impact on SO2 concentrations in Greenland ice. Yet you quoted the made up figure of 10 km in order to rebut the evidence that relative SO2 levels neighbouring the North Atlantic are recorded by Greenland Ice Cores. Without your quotation of that extremely short figure (absurdly short, in fact), you would have had no argument. There is a name for people who make up facts in order to bolster their case. I am not permitted to use it here due to the comments policy.
  27. Rob Honeycutt at 10:00 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum @ 95... That's a paper on black carbon. Try again.
  28. Rob Honeycutt at 09:57 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum... I would suggest you read the rules established by the IPCC on the uses of non-peer reviewed literature. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf Do you think for some reason Pachauri would be unaware of these policies?
  29. IPCC is alarmist
    What kind of a claim do you want Rob? Go pick up a copy of 'Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols' T. Novakov,1* V. Ramanathan,2 J.E. Hansen,3 T.W. Kirchstetter,1 M. Sato,3 J. E. Sinton,1 J.A. Sathaye1 1Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
  30. IPCC is alarmist
    ' Look, Pachauri is a smart guy. He's not going to make completely unfounded statements, especially in such a high profile position. ' Rob, I just showed you how he made unfounded statements, far reaching across the media. Telling the world the reports are only based on peer reviewed literature was misleading.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] "Telling the world the reports are only based on peer reviewed literature"

    Only? No more making things up. Support this statement with a link to an actual, verifiable quote; this is not an optional exercise.

  31. Rob Honeycutt at 09:53 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum... "...aerosols have a short atmospheric lifetime and therefore a very heterogeneous spatial distribution." Please back up this claim with some evidence.
  32. IPCC is alarmist
    Rob - maybe have a dig around the internet yourself, there's plenty of information about grey literature usage in quite important areas of the IPCC's AR4. Maybe start here; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report
  33. Rob Honeycutt at 09:49 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    krisbaum... What? Are you looking for test scores to show that he's smart?
  34. IPCC is alarmist
    Rob; 'Look, Pachauri is a smarty guy. He's not going to make completely unfounded statements, especially in such a high profile position. ' Please back up this claim with some evidence.
  35. IPCC is alarmist
    Philipe; to expand; it is common knowledge anthropogenic aerosols have a short atmospheric lifetime and therefore a very heterogeneous spatial distribution. 10km is arbitrary, I used it to simplify my statement(s).
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] This image of carbon monoxide aerosols from Asia proves you, and common knowledge, very wrong:

    The source website for that image is http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/. The image itself can be found here.

  36. michael sweet at 07:10 AM on 7 August 2012
    An American Heatwave: The United States Glimpses its Hot Future
    Dvaytw, To further Tom's comment, on Mass's blog he criticizes the model Rupp/Mote used for the comparison. Hansen used only measured data (no model data) so Mass's complaint does not apply. Since Hansen and Rupp/Mote reach similar conclusions it seems like Mass is the outlier. Mass presents no peer reviewed analysis of his own. You have to decide who you trust.
  37. An American Heatwave: The United States Glimpses its Hot Future
    dvaytw @38, you should read more carefully. Cliff Mass does not discuss Hansen's study at all. Rather, he critiques a paper by David E. Rupp and Philip W. Mote which deals exclusively with the 2011 Texas heat wave. That study claimed that global warming had made Texas 2011 heatwaves 20 times more likely in La Nina years. As it happens, the Texas 2011 was very improbable on the assumption of no global warming as can be seen by this histogram of August temperatures in Texas by the Texas State Climatologist, John Nielson-Gammon: There is no doubt that such events have become more probable because of the warming of Texas' climate, as shown in the discussion above. Whether they have become 20 times more probable, however, is open to dispute.
  38. An American Heatwave: The United States Glimpses its Hot Future
    I'm not in the least an AGW skeptic, but would like some input. This atmospheric sciences prof. Cliff Mass claims there are serious problems with Hansen's study: "Texas Tall Tales and Global Warming" http://cliffmass.blogspot.tw/2012/07/texas-tall-tales-and-global-warming.html So far I haven't been able to find a response from Hansen or his co-authors. Any thoughts?
  39. Rob Honeycutt at 02:47 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    Krisbaum... Think clearly for a moment. Is Pachauri saying that every single piece of science in the IPCC reports is peer reviewed literature. I don't think so. He's saying that the IPCC reports are "based" on the peer reviewed science. That statement does not exclude other sources. Look, Pachauri is a smart guy. He's not going to make completely unfounded statements, especially in such a high profile position.
  40. Philippe Chantreau at 01:55 AM on 7 August 2012
    New research from last week 31/2012
    As always Ari, your contribution is greatly appreciated.
  41. Philippe Chantreau at 01:24 AM on 7 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    One can always hope.Since the ball is in Krisbaum's camp, I'll add 2 questions to the challenges posed by others above. Krisbaum, How did you get the impression that aerosols travel only about 10 km from their source? How did you form the opinion that this falsehood was common knowledge?
  42. ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
    John, good points there. It's a whole portfolio of weather that can at bare minimum be characterised as 'snotty'. Where one ends up under the relevant bit of each Rossby Wave tends to dictate what kind of snot one has to deal with. Here, talk is of what summer vegetables one can grow that have resilience to cool, dull and often wet weather - though I suspect this is easier to work with than severe drought.
  43. ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
    I know the heat and drought that parts of the USA is going through at the moment is very severe and many people are suffering, but I wish that when scientists and others -- rightly -- highlight the role that climate change is playing in this extreme weather, they'd also mention that it's part of a wider picture that has opposing repercussions for people in other parts of the northern hemisphere. In the UK for instance so far this summer we've had two months or more of rainfall which is more than 200% over the typical monthly average creating several extreme flooding incidents (and as if to emphasis the point, the rain just started beating hard on my roof as I write this). This is echoed by even more extreme weather experienced elsewhere. It seems these events are all linked. The problem of concentrating on the heat and drought and not referencing the other repercussions, is when next winter is long and perhaps unusually cold it doesn't compute with lay people and they think you don't know what you're talking about. Now's the time to prepare them with what 'extreme' weather actually means and why it's now called 'climate change' in preference to 'global warming'.
  44. New research from last week 27-30
    Thanks for faithfully reporting so much of the ongoing research relating to climate change. This is such a great resource. Paul Vincelli University of Kentucky
  45. ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
    From the Jeff Masters link: "The U.S. is the world's largest exporter of corn and wheat, and 3rd largest exporter of soybeans. According to the Christian Science Monitor, food price increases due to the U.S. drought is already causing unrest in other parts of the world: "Take Indonesia, where soybeans are used to make tofu, the staple protein for the country's poor. There, soybean prices have risen 33 percent in the past month, and are already causing tensions. On July 26, there were clashes in Jakarta and other major cities in markets as a coalition of tofu producers sought to enforce a national production strike protesting against a 5 percent soybean import duty." Comparing the 1930s drought to the 2012 drought is unsafe because in 1930 there were ca. 2 billion mouths to feed; now there are ca. 7 billion. Therefore, a severe and prolonged drought is likely to have more serious implications today.
  46. Daniel Livingston at 19:13 PM on 6 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    Fair enough reasoning, Tom Curtis @ 85. I see Krisbaum has dug more of a hole for himself than I at first realised. I hope he'll have the openness and honesty to see it.
  47. ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
    I have to disagree with Shoyemore at #1. Specifically with respect to the "laughing denier", it needs to be driven home (= "clubbed" into people's heads) just how completely bonkers the denier community is. Yes, a dry, subtle presentation works for those of us reading this blog...but Sinclair's larger audience will include some people who are on the fence, or simply don't get enough exposure to the hard facts. No doubt some of them have heard the points made by the deniers, and think "Gee, I've heard somewhere that Global Warming isn't all that well-accepted." A rapier will not work on them.
  48. IPCC is alarmist
    Daniel Livingston @84, you may think it is not hypocritical of Krisbaum to use grey literature. It cannot have escaped your notice, however, that his entire argument depends on his pointing to the existence of grey literature without any discussion of the extent, quality or use of that literature. If the mere fact of literature being grey, is in his opinion, sufficient to rule it out as an acceptable source, then he is hypocritical to cite grey literature to establish his case. However, if he publicly and without equivocation states that grey literature can be of the the highest quality, and that the citation of grey literature by the IPCC in no way, by itself detracts from the quality of the IPCC reports, I will certainly withdraw the claim of hypocrisy and consider grey literature he adduces in support of his case. Without such a clear statement, however, I feel the conclusion that he is being hypocritical must stand.
  49. Daniel Livingston at 15:30 PM on 6 August 2012
    IPCC is alarmist
    I agree with Tom here. To allow Krisbaum to register any point by claiming that Pachauri overstates his claim does not seem fair to me. I haven't seen any evidence presented that Pachauri's claims, quoted by Krisbaum or anyone else in this thread, are overstated. I.e., I agree with Tom that it can be entirely consistent to draw conclusions based only on peer reviewed literature while still citing other literature. In the absence of anyone being able to give concrete contrary examples, this is the case for Pachauri and the IPCC. It certainly is fair to state that Krisbaum's claims are overstated, and embarrassingly so. There is nothing to his claims. But it is not clear to me that Krisbaum is being demonstrably hypocritical. I don't think he is claiming that any statement should only be based on peer reviewed literature. To hold someone else to a higher standard than held for oneself is certainly likely to be unreasonable, but it need not be hypocritical. It may be that in his mind, Krisbaum merely thinks he is holding Pachauri to a self-imposed standard that Krisbaum believes Pachauri/IPCC has failed to live up to. I hope that Krisbaum has the fairness of mind to either demonstrate his claims and/or honestly admit his reasoning is at best misguided. The rest of Tom's above post makes an entirely salient point with pertinent examples, and is what Krisbaum needs to respond to in order to attempt any substantiation of his claims.
  50. ‘It’s not looking good for corn’ - new video from Peter Sinclair
    Well, that was depressing.

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