Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2026
Posted on 9 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Why we need to explore conflict and competition around solar geoengineering, Möller & Young, PLOS Climate
In an increasingly aggressive international political environment, solar geoengineering needs to be reconceptualized – not only as a response to climate change, but as an instrument of power. This conceptualization means going beyond focusing on cooperative scenarios in which the technoluogy is used to effectively reduce temperature rise while minimizing potential side effects. As scholars of international relations, we see a need for more interdisciplinary engagement with solar geoengineering scenarios that explicitly feature political conflict and competition. By anticipating and exploring these, we can better contribute to informing governance arrangements that might be able to prevent situations that undermine international political stability and efforts to address climate change.
El Niño Events Enhance Melting of Sea Ice in the West of Greenland, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters
Using reanalysis data sets and numerical simulations, this study investigates the linkage between El Niño events and spring Arctic sea ice melt rate (AMR) in the west of Greenland. The results indicate that the accelerated spring AMR often corresponds to the previous winter's El Niño–like sea surface temperature anomalies. El Niño strengthens the Aleutian Low, facilitating the upward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves into the lower stratosphere and leading to a weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex in the North Pacific sector. This weakened vortex subsequently propagates downward into the troposphere over the North Atlantic sector in spring, inducing a cyclonic anomaly over the Svalbard Islands and an anticyclonic anomaly over the North Atlantic. Such conditions favor the development of southeasterly near-surface winds, which can transport warm air from lower latitudes northward, thereby influencing sea ice melting in the west of Greenland.
Increased Arctic Sea-Ice Variability Is Associated With Amplified Air-Sea Heat Fluxes, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters
While the role of long-term sea ice decline in shaping Arctic climate change is well-established, the contribution of short-term sea-ice variability remains insufficiently explored. Here we present observational evidence that since 2007, sea ice fluctuations in Arctic marginal ice zone have remained at a high level. The annual-mean daily variability of sea ice concentration rose by 11.4%, with high-variability days becoming more frequent, especially in summer and autumn. Composite analyses reveal enhanced net heat uptake in summer (+11.9%) and greater ocean-to-atmosphere heat release in winter (+45.3%), both of which intensify after 2007. Causal analyses reveal a feedback, with higher sea ice variability being closely linked to and reinforced by anomalous net heat fluxes. These findings highlight the increasing short-term variability of the Arctic sea-ice and its key role in regulating local air–sea heat exchange.
Decarbonising existing buildings with heat pumps – Early evidence and policy analysis for Switzerland, Patel et al., PLOS Climate
In order to overcome the problem that oil and gas boilers in existing buildings are typically replaced again by fossil fuel boilers, leading cantons in Switzerland have started to implement more targeted decarbonisation policies. The objective of the present paper is to critically discuss the experience made with policy measures for the decarbonisation of building-related heating systems in these cantons. For this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted as primary method. Early evidence indicates that the policies are effective by ensuring the transition to renewable heating technologies (primarily heat pumps). The implemented policy packages include coercive elements (mandatory renewable energy shares), subsidies as well as information and communication measures, resulting in a quasi-ban of fossil fuel boilers. Avoiding outright bans of fossil fuel use seems both effective to increase acceptance among building owners and reasonable to account for particularly demanding cases of boiler replacement (for which there is no technically or financially viable, fully renewable solution). Considering the very low carbon footprint of its electricity supply, Switzerland is a particularly convincing case for the transition from fossil fuel boilers to electric heat pumps. This is shown by means of an analysis of the CO2 emissions of heat pumps in comparison to gas and oil boilers across several European countries. We then compare the levelised cost of heat pumps for different subsidy levels. For a typical subsidy for the heat pump (equivalent to 11% of the investment cost), its levelised cost remains in an acceptable range compared to a gas boiler (7% more expensive). A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of high gas to electricity price ratios for financial viability. Evidence from leading cantons in Switzerland indicates that the chosen policy measures are effective, affordable and accepted and that they can be recommended to other countries.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Americans’ Shifting Views on Energy Issues, Brian Kennedy and Emma Kukuchi, Pew Research Center
The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say the country should prioritize oil, coal and natural gas over wind and solar power has doubled to 71% over the last six years. Majorities of Republicans see wind and solar power as less reliable than other energy sources, and decreasing shares of Republicans say wind and solar energy is better for the environment. An overwhelming majority of Democrats continue to prioritize wind and solar power and say the federal government should encourage their development.
INNOVATION INTERRUPTED: The Lasting Impact of Grant Terminations and Freezes at the U.S. Department of Energy, Tarak Shah,, US. Department of Energy Alumni Network
The scale of terminations and funding at risk is massive: DOE has announced the termination of 356 awards since January 2025, totaling $12.5 billion in federal funding. It has also threatened to terminate an additional 303 awards worth $12.2 billion. This action is part of a larger pattern of disruption that includes freezing projects at stage gates, not finalizing conditional awards, and reducing new solicitations, which puts Congressional goals for our energy sector, infrastructure, and domestic manufacturing at risk. Long Term Repercussions Exist for U.S. Energy Innovation: DOE’s actions profoundly undermine the reliability of federal grants as a mechanism for achieving national energy goals. This disruption has created deep uncertainty among private sector partners, with some awardees stating they will no longer pursue future DOE funding, posing a long-term risk to domestic energy innovation and deployment.
62 articles in 41 journals by 602 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Combined Impacts of ENSO and Arctic Sea Ice on North American Climate, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0469.1
Global Observational Estimates of Thermohaline Transformations by Interior Ocean Mixing, Castro et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-25-0265.1
Observations of climate change, effects
A Brighter Arctic Ocean: Trends in Solar Partitioning in the Arctic Sea Ice - Ocean System From 1984 to 2024, Webster et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120478
Rising flood risks in semiarid South Asia driven by changing intraseasonal oscillations under global warming, Xie et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea0082
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Strontium to calcium ratio and oxygen isotopic coral records can exaggerate past decadal tropical climate variability, Dolman et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03465-4
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Present and future downslope windstorms in the Scandinavian Mountains from a kilometre-scale climate model, Jureša et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.70155
Projected changes in tropical instability wave activity in the Pacific Ocean under greenhouse warming, Xue et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences pdf 10.1073/pnas.2530859123
Projecting Hurricane Risk in Atlantic Canada under Climate Change, Naeini et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100897
South American Mesoscale Convective Systems: Present and Future Climates, Rehbein et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045438
The Drivers and Impacts of Future Analogs of the 2011–2014 Drought in the Western and Central United States, Ellison & Coats, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045010
Twenty-First-Century Hydrological Trends in the Mississippi River Basin Intensify the East–West Moisture Gradient, Hancock et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0340.1
Weakening of Western Disturbances in Response to Polar Sea Ice Melt in Climate Model Simulations, Chandra et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.70007
Cryosphere & climate change
A Comparison of South Pacific Antarctic Sea Ice and Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions Since 1900, Fogt et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-53-2024
Disappearing glaciers of Sikkim Himalaya: a multi-decadal remote sensing analysis, Baruah et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-026-02745-z
Effects of Arctic sea-ice concentration on turbulent surface fluxes in four atmospheric reanalyses, Uhlíková et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-957-2024
El Niño Events Enhance Melting of Sea Ice in the West of Greenland, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120460
Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes, Hageman et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-3991-2024
Increased Arctic Sea-Ice Variability Is Associated With Amplified Air-Sea Heat Fluxes, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119415
Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020, Otosaka et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023
Permafrost landsystems define regional variability in climate change effects on northern environments, Kokelj et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-71216-2
Permafrost thaw controls iron flux from wetlands and sulfide-bearing rocks to Arctic rivers and streams, Dial et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03450-x
Paleoclimate
Massive wildfires followed oceanic anoxic events during the Late Devonian Frasnian-Famennian mass extinction, Lu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady4534
Response of water chemistry and boron resources in boron-rich salt lakes to a warming–wetting climate on the Tibetan Plateau: modern processes and geological records, Song et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105483
Southern Asian arc magmatism drove Eocene global climate, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105474
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A review on the resilience of temperate forests to extreme precipitation and wind events, Kuzee et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1746510
Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change, Cooke et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-70064-4
Identifying suitable habitats under climate change for non-targeted demersal fish in the Mediterranean Sea, Orfanidis et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000838
Impact of heat stress on colony foundation in ants, Roux et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0016
Species Distribution Modeling Reveals Future Climate Refugia and Important Areas for Rocky Plants in Brazil's Iron Quadrangle, Francisconi et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73355
Species range shifts often speed ahead of their modeled climatic niches, Oliveira et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2515903123
The influence of climate warming on flowering phenology in relation to historical annual and seasonal temperatures and plant functional traits, Geissler et al., PeerJ Open Access pdf 10.7717/peerj.15188
Unravelling Marine Benthic Functioning Shifts Under Ocean Acidification, Carlot et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70376
Wildfire risk for species under climate change, Yang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-026-02600-5
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Continental-Scale Spatiotemporal Assessment of Atmospheric Methane over Australia: Hotspot Persistence and Priority-Area Screening, Ghahremanlou et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.121992
Ecosystem-specific patterns and drivers of global reactive iron mineral-associated organic carbon, Zhao et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-4761-2023
Erosion of Amazonian mangroves over peatlands leads to soil carbon loss, Bernardino et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.21044
Evaluation of five models for constructing forest NPP-age relationships in China based on 3121 field survey samples, Li et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-625-2024
Evidence for Long-Term Coupling of Deep Ocean Carbon Storage and Global Climate Over the Past 4.5 Million Years, Novak et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2025pa005248
Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-71321-2
Increasing carbon emissions despite declining burned area in the Northern Hemisphere wildfires, Shi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108980
Technical note: The CAMS greenhouse gas reanalysis from 2003 to 2020, Agustí-Panareda et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-3829-2023
The high-resolution global shipping emission inventory by the Shipping Emission Inventory Model (SEIM), Yi et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-17-277-2025
Underestimation of oceanic carbon uptake in the Arctic Ocean: ice melt as predictor of the sea ice carbon pump, Richaud et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023
Warming Reduces the Positive Effect of Nitrogen Addition on Soil Organic Carbon in Grasslands, Shi et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.70379
Decarbonization
Decarbonising existing buildings with heat pumps – Early evidence and policy analysis for Switzerland, Patel et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000608
Geoengineering climate
G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies, Visioni et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024
Why we need to explore conflict and competition around solar geoengineering, Möller & Young, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000869
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Dynamic Norms and the Feasibility Gap in Climate-Adapted Forest Management, Dodi Sukma et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103030
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A satellite-based approach for estimating runoff and river discharge in the Pan-Arctic region from 2003 to 2022, Leopardi et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115353
Rising flood risks in semiarid South Asia driven by changing intraseasonal oscillations under global warming, Xie et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aea0082
Twenty-First-Century Hydrological Trends in the Mississippi River Basin Intensify the East–West Moisture Gradient, Hancock et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0340.1
Warming and Wetting Induced by Urbanization and Anthropogenic Heat over a Fast-Developing Large River Delta, Lai & Gan, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0138.1
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Households’ intentions to adopt low-carbon technologies: the role of discounting and anticipated regret, Mariani et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115282
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change-induced emergencies and inequity: The role of emergency management governance in Canada, Goulet & Birchall, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000887
Climate-related in-situ displacement, Savelli et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2623631
Performance of tree canopy cover in mitigating future extreme heat across local climate zones: A case study of Guangzhou, Fan et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102880
Revisiting the Climate-Migration-Conflict Nexus: Community-Level evidence and contextual pathways in coastal Bangladesh, Laila et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100813
Theoretical and conceptual evaluation of climate-related displacement and mobility, Türke? et al., The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196261434015
Uneven Climate Adaptation: Mapping Socioinstitutional Vulnerability across Europe’s Secondary Cities, Michalak, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0107.1
Climate change impacts on human health
Expert insights into the health and societal risks of a potential AMOC collapse in Europe: Focus on Germany, Mirow, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000735
Climate change impacts on human culture
An Atlantic eco-poetics of relations: Intercultural communication and Caribbean decolonising approaches to face the climate crisis, Jerez Columbié, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000187
Other
Who will act for climate resilience? Predictors of community engagement and gaps in climate-related action, Shapira et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000874
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Preparing for a potential crossing of an AMOC tipping point, Nummelin et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000881
Toward Improved Understanding and Attribution of Large-Scale Circulation Changes and Associated Extremes: Challenges and Opportunities, Findell et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-26-0009.1
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Retail Electricity Price Trends and Drivers: Data Update−2026 Edition, Wiser et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and
National-average nominal retail prices have spiked in recent years, though the increases have largely tracked inflation, but with a bump 2025. Residential customers have faced larger recent retail electricity price increases than have commercial and industrial customers. Residential retail electricity price increases have been significant: broadly in line with some other household expenditures but higher than others. National residential electricity costs as a fraction of personal expenditure and income trended down for decades, but increased in 2025. National trends mask stark differences in state-level all-sector average retail electricity prices in 2025. Changes in average state-level, inflation-adjusted retail prices vary widely: many more states with increases in last year than 2019-2025.
Opportunities Exist to Improve the Department of Energy’s Oversight of Demonstration and Deployment Projects, Office of the Inspector General, Department of Energy
The Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (Nuclear Energy) awarded a $1.36 billion cost-share financial assistance award to the Carbon Free Power Project, LLC in October 2020 to demonstrate and commercially deploy an economically competitive and viable first-of-a kind NuScale Power, LLC Small Modular Reactor plant at the Idaho National Laboratory. The authors found that Nuclear Energy did not effectively manage the Project, and lessons learned can be applied to future awards. Specifically, the authors found that Nuclear Energy did not effectively evaluate critical risks prior to award, structure the award to monitor risks, perform sufficient oversight of the Project, and ensure costs were allowable. They attributed these issues to Nuclear Energy not following existing requirements and guidance regarding merit reviews, project performance risk, risk management and evaluation, reducing perceived bias, and enforcement of award terms. Also, Nuclear Energy agreed to front-load the cost-share, placing the Government at risk of losing almost $143.5 million since the Project terminated.
Regulation of Coastal Weathering in Massachusetts, Murthy et al., Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
Carbon dioxide removal (“CDR”) will be needed, alongside emissions reductions, to achieve global climate objectives. One such technique is coastal enhanced weathering (“CEW”), which looks to accelerate the natural processes of weathering of alkaline-rich rocks to remove and sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This natural weathering process occurs slowly — over centuries to millennia — but scientists have suggested the possibility of speeding it up by finely grinding alkaline rocks and spreading them in the coastal zone, where the natural wave and tidal forces will catalyze weathering. As the alkaline rocks weather, they convert carbonic acid present in the ocean into carbonate and bicarbonate ions, reducing the acidity of the ocean and increasing its ability to uptake additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, CEW presents a number of challenges and risks that require further research before deployment at scale can occur.
INNOVATION INTERRUPTED: The Lasting Impact of Grant Terminations and Freezes at the U.S. Department of Energy, Tarak Shah,, US. Department of Energy Alumni Network
The Scale of Terminations and Funding at Risk is Massive: DOE has announced the termination of 356 awards since January 2025, totaling $12.5 billion in federal funding. It has also threatened to terminate an additional 303 awards worth $12.2 billion. This action is part of a larger pattern of disruption that includes freezing projects at stage gates, not finalizing conditional awards, and reducing new solicitations, which puts Congressional goals for our energy sector, infrastructure, and domestic manufacturing at risk. Long Term Repercussions Exist for U.S. Energy Innovation: DOE’s actions profoundly undermine the reliability of federal grants as a mechanism for achieving national energy goals. This disruption has created deep uncertainty among private sector partners, with some awardees stating they will no longer pursue future DOE funding, posing a long-term risk to domestic energy innovation and deployment.
Report to Governor Katie Hobbs, Mahoney et al., Arizona Energy Promise Taskforce
The authors provide a pathway to optimize Arizona’s deployment of existing and emerging energy technologies, eliminate bottlenecks in energy generation and transmission processes, and protect ratepayers from shouldering costs caused by large energy users such as data centers.
The electric fast-track for emerging markets. How electrotech can serve the billion people left behind by the fossil system and open up a faster path to prosperity, Walter et al., Ember
Smaller emerging economies have long struggled to climb the energy ladder. Electricity demand per capita in low-income countries, for example, has declined since 2010. More than 700 million people still have no electricity, and many of those connected face frequent outages. This challenge is most visible in the 74 member nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF). Together, they are home to over a fifth of the global population but account for under 5% of global GDP and electricity demand. These nations represent three-quarters of the world's population living on less than 1 MWh of electricity per capita. A different path is now available. Rapid cost declines in electrotech – such as solar, battery storage, and electric end-use technologies – are reshaping the economics of energy in these markets. These technologies are scalable in small increments from the ground up. The opportunity is not undercutting fossil fuels; it is pricing in the billion people the fossil system left behind. The shift is already under way and moving faster than many recognize.
Americans’ Shifting Views on Energy Issues, Brian Kennedy and Emma Kukuchi, Pew Research Center
The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who say the country should prioritize oil, coal and natural gas over wind and solar power has doubled to 71% over the last six years. Majorities of Republicans see wind and solar power as less reliable than other energy sources, and decreasing shares of Republicans say wind and solar energy is better for the environment. An overwhelming majority of Democrats continue to prioritize wind and solar power and say the federal government should encourage their development.
U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: Special Edition, Climate Care Consulting
This special edition looks back on the impacts of climate hazards on human health in 2025, featuring stories on Climate Central's Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding, and hurricanes.
March 2026 U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health, Climate Care Consulting
The authors examine drought, wildfire, and cold weather in March along with information on spring pollen season and a projected transition in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate phenomenon.
Carbon markets and food systems, Nathanaël Pingault and Christopher Martius, The Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry
Carbon markets are increasingly recognized as a central instrument of international climate cooperation, yet their potential to support the decarbonization of food systems remains largely untapped. Food systems—spanning agriculture, land use and land-use change and forestry, energy, industry, and waste—account for around one third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, while offering substantial mitigation opportunities across production, value chains, and consumption. The authors provide one of the first comprehensive assessments of how food-system-related mitigation activities are represented in international carbon markets. Drawing on an original merged database covering more than 9,200 projects from both UNFCCC mechanisms (notably the Clean Development Mechanism) and major independent standards, the authors analyze nearly 4.9 GtCO?e of issued carbon credits through a food- system lens. The authors introduce a simplified typology of project scopes and types and examines the geographical, sectoral, and technological distribution of food-system-related projects.
2025 Hurricane Season, Cangialosi et al., National Hurricane Center
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season featured 13 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes, but was distinguished by three Category 5 hurricanes—the second-highest total on record behind 2005. While NHC issued fewer forecasts than average, official track forecasts were more accurate than the 5-year means at all lead times. In addition, track skill values are near historical highs and substantial long-term improvements continue across all forecast periods. Official forecasts generally outperformed most dynamical and consensus models, though the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) showed slightly better short-range performance. In contrast, intensity forecasts were more challenging, with errors exceeding the 5-year means, particularly during numerous rapid intensification (RI) events. Despite increased difficulty, intensity skill remained near all-time highs, and official forecasts demonstrated improved RI prediction relative to model guidance. Wind radii forecasts continued their gradual long-term improvement, and genesis outlooks were generally well calibrated at 48 h but exhibited some low bias at lower probabilities in the 168-h product. Overall, the 2025 Atlantic season highlighted continued gains in track forecasting, ongoing progress in intensity and wind radii prediction, and the operational challenges posed by an unusually high frequency of RI cases.
Seizing the Data Center Buildout for Grid Modernization An American Grid Infrastructure Fund to Leverage AI Growth for Public Benefit, Jane Flegal, Searchlight Institute
The U.S. has the capital, technology, and private sector motivation to build a modern electricity system capable of powering AI growth, electrification, and energy security. What has been missing is the institutional architecture to convert those inputs into grid investment at the pace and scale the moment demands. There is a narrow window during which policymakers have real leverage to steer grid buildout for data center development in publicly optimal directions, but it will close soon. Policymakers have an opportunity to use their leverage to finance the grid modernization the country so desperately needs, and provide much-needed relief to ratepayers. What is needed is a dedicated vehicle to finance and coordinate grid investment at the scale and speed the moment demands, in a way that ensures the American public benefits from the infrastructure built to serve large new loads, even if any individual load exits early or fails to materialize. An American Grid Infrastructure Fund could begin to address this immediately. The current approach to data center buildout means that, to the extent it is allowed, growing demand produces a relatively narrow set of public benefits: local tax revenue, construction employment, and load growth that justifies investment that may or may not serve broader grid modernization goals. The Fund would seek to systematically expand these benefits.
Under the Weather: India’s Climate-Health Intersections and Pathways to Resilience, The ClimateRISE Alliance
As understanding of the links between climate change and health in India deepens, this critical intersection remains underexplored in philanthropic investment. The authors make the case for integrating a climate lens into health system responses to build both short- and long-term community resilience. It highlights how evidence can be translated to guide investments, inform programmatic decisions, and strengthen health system preparedness. As philanthropy remains nascent in the climate-health context in India, the authors outline how it can help scale proven interventions, foster cross-sector collaboration, and channel resources toward underserved priorities.
The Case for Commercial Recycling of Used Nuclear Fuel: Assessment and Recommendations, Leggett et al., Energy Innovation Reform Projec
Recent technological advances, market shifts, and geopolitical factors make commercial used nuclear fuel recycling both feasible and strategically urgent for the United States. EIRP produced the report in partnership with advanced reactor developer Oklo.
Climate Change and Extreme Heat: Strengthening Resilience and Adaptive Capacity in the Southern African Development Community, Singh et al., Academy of Science of South Africa
This consensus study examines extreme heat as the defining climate and health challenge for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. It introduces the concept of extreme heat as the integrator hazard – the cross-cutting risk through which vulnerabilities in health, labor, energy, food systems, wildfire dynamics, and urban environments intersect. Extreme heat is reshaping the lived realities of millions across SADC and driving widening inequities, yet it remains one of the most preventable climate-related threats. Through evidence synthesis and expert deliberation, the authors offer clear, actionable pathways to strengthen heat-health preparedness and build a more resilient, equitable future for communities across the region. Information in the report supports policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and communities in strengthening resilience and promoting equitable adaptation across SADC Member States.
Healthcare System of Systems Vulnerability, Thacker et al., Global Center on Adaptation and Oxford Infrastructure Analytics
The authors assess health system vulnerabilities to climate change, and its dependencies on failures in supporting systems (energy, transport, digital, water, waste).
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