Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #18 2026
Posted on 30 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming, Tang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
During July–August 2024, East Antarctica experienced the most intense winter heatwave in the 46-year satellite era, with regional mean surface air temperatures across Dronning Maud Land exceeding the climatological mean by more than 9°C for 17 consecutive days. To explore the physical drivers and quantify the anthropogenic contribution to this unprecedented event, we propose a multi-model, multi-method attribution framework integrating regional climate model-based storyline attribution, circulation analogues, and large-ensemble probabilistic attribution. The results show that a pronounced weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex initiated a quasi-barotropic high-pressure anomaly, which enhanced meridional heat and moisture transport and accounted for approximately 50% of the observed surface warming. Across different models and attribution methods, synthesis of the attribution results indicates that anthropogenic warming intensified the event by approximately 0.7°C and more than doubled the likelihood of such exceptional winter heatwaves in the current climate. Probabilistic attribution further indicates that, compared to a natural climate without human influence, the likelihood of such events increases from 2–3 times today to ~6 times under moderate emissions and up to 26 times under high emissions by 2100. These findings reveal how human-induced warming is transforming even the coldest regions, with implications for ice shelf stability and predictability of future Antarctic extremes.
A recent stabilization in the lengthening of the Arctic sea ice melt season into a highly variable regime, Boisvert et al., Communications Earth & Environment
The melt season length of the Arctic sea ice is an important indicator and driver of large changes occurring in the climate system. Since 1979 the melt season has lengthened by ~40 days, driven mostly by delayed freeze onset (~ 34 days) compared to earlier melt onset (~ 7 days). However, since 2010 the melt season length has stabilized (~ 108 days), showing no consistent change over the years, instead becoming highly variable (+/− 11 days), largely driven by a loss of multi-year ice in 2000–2009 and a small change in the freeze onset (~ 2 days). There is a stark difference between the decades, where the largest changes in the melt season occurred between 2000–2009 (+ 25 days) and the smallest occurred between 2010–2023 (−2 days). This leads us to believe that, while there might be some periodicity in the processes that control the decadal variations in the melt season length, anthropogenic forcing has altered the Arctic background state and led to a new Arctic melt season that is much longer with a much thinner ice pack that is more susceptible to external forcings.
Field Observations of Sea Ice Thickening by Artificial Flooding, Hammer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans
Arctic sea ice is retreating at a high rate, also due to the positive ice-albedo feedback loop: as ice melts and disappears, it reflects less sunlight, further accelerating ocean warming. One proposed way to slow the retreat is by thickening sea ice in winter, increasing its chances of surviving summer melt. This could be achieved by artificially flooding existing sea ice with seawater pumped from below, allowing it to freeze at the surface through exposure to cold air and thicken the ice layer. However, the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain, as numerical models show contrasting results and few field experiments have been conducted. This study examines the growth and melt of ice through spring and summer after artificial flooding covering , resulting in thickened (+26 cm) snow-covered first-year sea ice. Observations were carried out in Vallunden Lagoon (Van Mijenfjord), Svalbard, from 20 March to 24 June 2024, with flooding and intensive in situ measurements from 11–15 April. Artificial flooding significantly heated the upper two-thirds of the original 90 cm thick ice, increasing salinity. Surface albedo evolution was influenced by specific events such as slush formation, snow drift, and a major meltwater drainage event in spring. Artificial flooding resulted in thicker ice and delayed rotten ice formation by 6 days, but did not delay the disappearance of ice in summer compared to a non-flooded reference site. Experiments at other scales and locations could help reveal how local conditions and flooded area size influence results and the potential of this method.
The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios, Millman et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 report (2021) provides a range of projections on greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and the consequential impact on global sea level through thermal expansion of sea water and by glacier and ice-sheet mass loss. This paper assesses the likelihood of lower IPCC sea-level rise scenarios (SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6) in light of current ice-sheet observations and model limitations, alongside today’s emissions trends and current shortfall of climate commitments. We conclude that ‘low-end’ projections may underestimate the true pace and magnitude of future sea-level rise and, if we continue on today’s mid-higher emissions pathway (SSP3–7.0), sea-level outcomes of more than 1 m by 2100 should be planned for. The worst can still be avoided through rapid deep emissions reductions, but it is essential that the IPCC continues to reflect these true risks for decision-makers, with rises of more than 2 m this century and several metres thereafter a real possibility.
Audience engagement with climate change content on YouTube: an analysis of video attributes and user interactions, Aharonson et al., Frontiers in Climate
Results indicate that videos presented by scientists are significantly more likely to elicit positive audience attitudes than those presented by politicians or other public figures. Solution-focused framing is strongly associated with positive engagement, while blame-oriented framing is associated with negative responses. Additionally, threaded comment discussions show a higher proportion of positive attitudes than independent comments, suggesting that conversational interaction enhances constructive engagement. These findings highlight the importance of expertise-based communication, solution-oriented narratives, and interactive discourse in digital sustainability communication. The study contributes both methodological tools and practical insights for designing climate change communication strategies that foster informed and constructive public engagement.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Trust, Media Habits, and Misperceptions Shape Public Understanding of Climate Change, Marryam Ishaq and M. Speiser, ecoAmerica
A hidden climate majority exists. Most Americans are concerned about climate change, but they do not realize how widely that concern is shared. This perception gap (pluralistic ignorance) masks a strong hidden consensus on climate concern. Trust in information and personal concern about climate change reinforce each other. Americans who trust the information they see or hear are far more likely to be concerned about climate change (79%) — and those who are climate-concerned report higher trust. This creates a reinforcing loop between trust and concern. Media ecosystems shape climate beliefs. Where Americans get their news influences what they believe about climate and energy. While mainstream national media, local news, and social media remain the most widely used sources overall, partisan and age differences shape which sources are most relied on, which in turn shapes climate beliefs. Americans trust the information they encounter but doubt others’ ability to recognize climate misinformation. While many Americans trust the information they personally consume, they are far less confident in others’ ability to distinguish climate fact from fiction — especially when they perceive others as less concerned about climate change. Mistrust of others and misperceptions are core barriers to climate action. Rather than a lack of concern, some of the biggest barriers include eroded trust and misperceptions. Misperceptions about energy sources and others’ climate beliefs, combined with low confidence in the public’s ability to navigate climate misinformation, suppress visible engagement and slow individual and collective action.
People and Climate Change, Ipsos
As temperatures rise, the individual responsibility to act has fallen. The past 11 years have been the warmest in the modern era, but people increasingly place less responsibility in needing to act. In the last five years, all countries surveyed in the report in both 2021 and 2026 have seen falls in the proportion who agree that individuals would be failing future generations by not acting against climate change. Short-term fear is countering long-term preparation. While climate concern remains present – 59% on average across 31 countries say they country should be doing more in the fight against climate change - more immediate risks are seen as greater priorities. Our What Worries the World survey finds concern about climate change in 11th place, behind more tangible, immediate worries issues like crime, unemployment, and inflation. The energy transition is at a crossroads. Public support for transitioning to clean energy is increasingly conditional, contingent on affordability, reliability, and security trade-offs. The Ipsos Energy Transition Barometer finds one in two (50% across 31 countries) support governments prioritizing low energy prices even if emissions increase.
Climate Change and Migration from Central America: Insights from Migrants in Mexico, Kerwin et al., UC Berkeley School of Law
The authors examine how climate-related harms intersect with and exacerbate violence, exclusion, discrimination, and weak state protection to drive migration from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Drawing on interviews, desk research, and surveys with people on the move in Mexico, the authors show that climate change rarely operates as a single cause of displacement. Instead, migrants consistently describe how environmental shocks—such as droughts that destroy crops, storms that damage homes and livelihoods, and deforestation and extreme heat that undermine health and economic stability—exacerbate existing insecurity and hardship. The authors focus on Mexico as both a transit and destination country for Central American migrants impacted by these dynamics. The findings demonstrate that better understanding how climate change intensifies vulnerabilities to violence, insecurity, and loss of livelihood—and integrating that analysis into refugee and immigration representation and adjudication— can improve access to protection and to regular migration status under Mexico’s existing legal framework. The authors also offer specific recommendations to strengthen institutional responses to climate migration by the Mexican government and civil society actors to climate migration.
114 articles in 55 journals by 1150 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Climate feedback of forest fires amplified by atmospheric chemistry, Chen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-026-01926-1
Differences in actual evapotranspiration and responses of pure and mixed forests to climate change on the Chinese Loess Plateau, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111210
Imbalance Trajectories of GPP–TER Coupling Under Global Warming, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70857
Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Patterns and Mean Warming on Past and Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, Levin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0635.1
Mechanisms for Decadal Variability of Ocean Heat Uptake Inferred From Adjoint Sensitivities, Köhl & Fernández, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119283
Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty, Tam et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-4289-2026
Ocean Meridional Heat Transport Estimated from Energy Budget Constraint, Pan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0522.1
Poleward migration of warm Circumpolar Deep Water towards Antarctica, Lanham et al., Apollo (University of Cambridge) Open Access pmh:oai:www.repository.cam.ac.uk:1810/400387
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Asymmetric impacts of forest gain and loss on tropical land surface temperature, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01423-3 53 cites.
Observations of climate change, effects
Climatology and Trends in Spatial Scales of Extreme Precipitation Over Land in the Contiguous US, Chatterjee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120662
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence, Forster et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023
Persistent 2023–2025 Wildfire Extremes in Canada Produced Unprecedented Emissions and Air-Quality Impacts, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70891
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide ignites metal mobilization in acid mine drainage, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03551-7
Spatiotemporal Trends and Urban-Climate Interactions of Land Surface Temperature Dynamics Across Bangladesh, Haque et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100547
Unprecedented 2024 East Antarctic winter heatwave driven by polar vortex weakening and amplified by anthropogenic warming, Tang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01392-x
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Increasing Risk of a “Hot Eastern?Pluvial Western” Asia, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef004333 14 cites.
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
An observational record of global gridded near surface air temperature change over land and ocean from 1781, Morice et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-17-7079-2025
ENSO contribution to the assessment of long-term cloud feedback on global warming, Liu et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5589-2026
Global open-ocean daily turbulent heat flux dataset (1992–2020) from SSM/I via deep learning, Wang et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-2929-2026
Mapping sea ice concentration using Nimbus-5 ESMR and local dynamical tie points, Tellefsen et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-2891-2026
Reanalyses in the Age of Machine Learning: Why Dataset Curation Matters Now More than Ever, Abel et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0149.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Russian collaboration loss risks permafrost carbon emissions network, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02001-6 15 cites.
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Identifying atmospheric rivers and their poleward latent heat transport with generalizable neural networks: ARCNNv1, Mahesh et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-3533-2024
Large and projected increases in compound heatwaves-extreme precipitation events driven by anthropogenic emissions, Liu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100908
Projected Future Changes of Atmospheric Rivers by a High- and Low-Resolution CESM, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0377.1
Rising Temperatures Will Amplify the Risk of Future Compound Dry–Hot Events over the Mongolian Plateau, Kang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0592.1
Seasonality and scenario dependence of rapid Arctic sea ice loss events in CMIP6 simulations, Sticker et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-3259-2025
The burden of El Niño–Southern Oscillation-related dengue attributable to anthropogenic climate change: a multicountry modelling study, Li et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101454
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Emergent Constraints on Future Projections of Tibetan Plateau Warming in Winter, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl108728 16 cites.
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Signal-to-Noise Problem in Model Simulation of Decadal Climate Modes, Clement et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0190.1
CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities, Dingley et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2945-2026
Comments on “Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble”, Vicente-Serrano et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0055.1
Development of the global chemistry-climate coupled model BCC-GEOS-Chem v2.0: improved atmospheric chemistry performance and new capability of chemistry-climate interactions, Sun et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-2111-2026
Enhancing Urban Near-Surface Temperature Simulations through Anthropogenic Heat Parameters Adapted to Local Climate Zones, LV et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0224.1
Physics-based models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes, Zhang et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18929001
Reply to “Comments on ‘Mediterranean Drying by a Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Trend over the Last 65 Years Is an Extreme Outlier in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble’”, Seager et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0138.1
Successes and Failures of Current AI Climate Models, Scaife, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122615
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling, Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-16-2007-2024 27 cites.
Cryosphere & climate change
A recent stabilization in the lengthening of the Arctic sea ice melt season into a highly variable regime, Boisvert et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03534-8
Antarctic grounding zone and bedrock: the interplay shaping Antarctic sea-level contribution, Nowicki & Seroussi, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0544
Assessment of snow model uncertainty in relation to the effect of a 1 °C warming using the snow modelling framework openAMUNDSEN, Rottler et al., SHILAP Revista de lepidopterología Open Access pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:6ac18b8f1acb47c891ce634ea62de79e
Far-reaching effects of Tibetan warming amplification on polar sea?ice retreat, M et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03542-8
Field Observations of Sea Ice Thickening by Artificial Flooding, Hammer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022738
Glacier-level and gridded mass change in the rivers' sources in the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETPR) from 1970s to 2000, Zhu et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-17-1851-2025
Hard rocks and deep wetlands beneath Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, Zeising et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03502-2
Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+), Jordan, Cronfa (Swansea University) pmh:oai:cronfa.swan.ac.uk:cronfa71766
The impact of ice structures and ocean warming in Milne Fiord, Bonneau et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-2615-2025
Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections, Caillet et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0543
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate projections of the Adriatic Sea: role of river release, Frontiers in Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1368413 31 cites.
Sea level & climate change
The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios, Millman et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0565
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing coastal flood risk under extreme events and sea level rise in the Casablanca-Mohammedia coastline (Morocco), Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-024-06624-y 6 cites.
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
East Antarctic Ice Sheet Variability In The Central Transantarctic Mountains Since The Mid Miocene, Bromley et al., Climate of the past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-21-145-2025
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Stable isotope evidence for long-term stability of large-scale hydroclimate in the Neogene North American Great Plains, Climate of the past, 10.5194/cp-20-1039-2024 7 cites.
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A Modern Ghost Story: Increased Selective Mortality of Salmon Under Climate Extremes, Sturrock et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70854
Adapting Species Risk Assessments to a Changing Climate: The Underestimated Vulnerability of Foundational Trees, McLaughlin et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70866
Amazonian understory forests change phosphorus acquisition strategies under elevated CO2, Martins et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72098-0
Estimating the total mortality of seabirds following a marine heat wave, Lavers et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70273
Evolutionary conservation hotspots: key areas for threatened Neotropical glassfrogs under climate change scenarios, Vega-Yánez et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.21165
Global Conservation Status of Key Areas for Climate Diversity, Junjun, Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.17744471
Imbalance Trajectories of GPP–TER Coupling Under Global Warming, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70857
Interacting Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Warming Reshape Thermal Environments on a Coral Reef, Rogers et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120406
Phragmites australis and Argyrogramma albostriata Suppress the Invasion of Solidago canadensis in China Under Future Climate Change, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73573
Predators Can Reverse the Effects of Warming on a Marine Ecosystem Engineer, Malakooti et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70846
Relationships Between Water-Use Efficiency and Climatic Factors in Conifers From Different Genera in China, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2026jg009734
Shifting snake ranges in a warming world, Wan et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70293
Warming advanced leaf senescence in alpine plants through advancing leaf emergence and increasing soil drought, Chen et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70325
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Interactions between climate change and urbanization will shape the future of biodiversity, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-01996-2 69 cites.
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A top-down evaluation of bottom-up estimates to reduce uncertainty in methane emissions from Arctic wetlands, Basso et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2815-2026
Canadian net forest CO2 uptake enhanced by heat drought via reduced respiration, Dong et al., MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) pmh:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3686498
Carbon dioxide release driven by organic carbon in minerogenic salt marshes, Kainz et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2865-2026
Climate benefits of lake nutrient management in China, Zhao et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01971-w
Designing National Forest Inventories for Accurate Estimation of Soil Carbon Change, Buchkowski et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70868
Disproportionate Belowground Carbon Loss and Ecotone Sensitivity in Boreal Peatland Wildland Fires: Insights From LiDAR and Field Data, Nelson et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008982
Diurnal versus spatial variability of greenhouse gas emissions from an anthropogenic modified German lowland river, Koschorreck et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-1613-2024
First global carbon dynamics from an observational and process-informed hybrid perspective: Oversimplified respiration representation likely drives divergence in terrestrial carbon sequestration across models, Zhu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111197
Global blue carbon losses from salt marshes exceed restoration gains, Zheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70158-z
Global CO emissions and drivers of atmospheric CO trends constrained by MOPITT satellite measurements, Tang et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-5531-2026
Greenhouse gas accounting in urban digital twins, Lylykangas et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae5a57
Methane leakage thresholds for net climate benefits of wastewater biogas recovery, Li et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01818-7
Microbial Responses to Warming Reduce Deep Blue Carbon Storage, Xiao et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70883
Phosphate scarcity governs methane production in the global open ocean, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2521235123
Priority research questions in global peatland science, Milner et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03321-5
Seasonal Drought Reduces Carbon Sequestration in Coastal Wetlands, Jia et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70865
Tracing carbon dynamics during vegetation succession in a subtropical forest, Chen et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70319
Why both trees and technology are important in the race to mitigate carbon emissions, Walker, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01300-6
Wintertime production and storage of methane in thermokarst ponds of subarctic Norway, Pismeniuk et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-1497-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
High-resolution US methane emissions inferred from an inversion of 2019 TROPOMI satellite data: contributions from individual states, urban areas, and landfills, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-5069-2024 56 cites.
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Hemispheric contrast in summer season duration responses to CO2 removal, Park et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.31898308
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The performance of solvent-based direct air capture across geospatial and temporal climate regimes, Frontiers in Climate, 10.3389/fclim.2024.1394728 18 cites.
Decarbonization
A straightforward trajectory strengthens support for the transition away from natural gas: a population-based survey experiment in the Netherlands, Noordzij et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104699
End of life electric vehicle batteries in China to 2060 and related resource management implications, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03555-3
Life cycle assessment across three generations of photovoltaic systems: Insights from net-zero perspective, Tan et al., Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102012
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impact of electric vehicle charging demand on power distribution grid congestion, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2317599121 84 cites.
Aerosols
Desert dust exerts twice the longwave radiative heating estimated by climate models, Kok et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-70952-9
Size-resolved condensation sink as an approach to understand pathways how gaseous emissions affect health and climate, Lepistö et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-4215-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Aerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-46635-8 25 cites.
Climate change communications & cognition
Audience engagement with climate change content on YouTube: an analysis of video attributes and user interactions, Aharonson et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1803829
Beyond broken homes: Why climate resilience must start with the human psyche, Sahu & Basu, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000908
Beyond Memory and Experimenter Demand: Scientific Consensus Messages Correct Misperceptions, Geiger et al., Open Science Framework Open Access 10.17605/osf.io/s8zgh
Narratives of youth climate activism: exploring the diversity of meaning-making on climate change and citizenship, Fonseca & Castro, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103044
Obstructing change: political inertia and the maintenance of climate inaction in Australia, Bowden et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2026.2664291
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Generative AI tools can enhance climate literacy but must be checked for biases and inaccuracies, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01392-w 48 cites.
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agrivoltaic System Potential to Mitigate Effects of Climate Change in Viticulture, Meier et al., JuSER (Forschungszentrum Jülich) pmh:oai:juser.fz-juelich.de:1050469
Deep learning model anticipates climate change induced reduction in major commodity crop yields for Canada in 2050, Bhullar et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1748516
Escalating Compound Drought-Heatwaves and Demographic Shifts Threaten Simultaneous Global Breadbasket Failures, Sabut & Mishra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118650
Fast Net Carbon Balance Recovery After Clear-Cutting but Uncertain Long-Term Carbon Accumulation in Eucalyptus Plantations, Guillemot et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70881
Harmonized European Union subnational crop statistics reveal climate impacts and crop cultivation shifts, Ronchetti et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-1623-2024
Integration of SEBAL-Derived Evapotranspiration With Climate Change Projections to Assess Basin-Scale Water Resources and Crops Yield, Mikaeili & Shourian, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70398
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate-smart agriculture: adoption, impacts, and implications for sustainable development, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-024-10139-z 114 cites.
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A tale of two coasts: Unveiling US Gulf and Atlantic coastal cities at high flood risk, Dey & Shao, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec2079
Climatology and Trends in Spatial Scales of Extreme Precipitation Over Land in the Contiguous US, Chatterjee et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120662
Future Changes in the Atmospheric Water Cycle Over the Tibetan Plateau, Zou et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-026-08094-3
Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility using different climatic parameters and deep learning algorithms in eastern Himalayan region, Paramanik et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1729457
Impacts of climate change on groundwater resources: a comprehensive review, Kunwar et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1606354
Projected Future Changes of Atmospheric Rivers by a High- and Low-Resolution CESM, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0377.1
Rising Temperatures Will Amplify the Risk of Future Compound Dry–Hot Events over the Mongolian Plateau, Kang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0592.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2023ef004073 10 cites.
Climate change economics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Higher education’s impact on CO2 mitigation: MENA insights with consideration for unemployment, economic growth, and globalization, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1325598 11 cites.
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal, Tagomori et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y
Strategic retrenchment in the energy transition: Shell Pernis and the emergence of second-order carbon lock-in, Unruh et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104718
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Catalysts for sustainable energy transitions: the interplay between financial development, green technological innovations, and environmental taxes in European nations, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-04081-4 34 cites.
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Disentangling urban vulnerability to rising temperatures, Achebak et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101451
Weave framework: harnessing local knowledge in donor-funded climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction projects, Yukich et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2661681
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Governance, institutions, and climate change resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: assessing the threshold effects, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1352344 23 cites.
Climate change impacts on human health
Heatwaves Constrain the Future Persistence of Mosquito Vectors in Europe, Kramer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70876
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Analysing health system capacity and preparedness for climate change, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-01994-4 31 cites.
Climate change & geopolitics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The challenges of the increasing institutionalization of climate security, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000402 7 cites.
Other
Artificial intelligence to support cross-disciplinary climate change research, Ou et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02624-x
Iron and Manganese Cycling in the Atlantifying Barents Sea: Concentrated Inputs and Emerging Limitations, Hawley et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb009031
Research on the impact of climate risk attention on enterprise energy efficiency, Song, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115325
Strengthening Climate Action through Career Aspirations: A Life-Course Perspective on Circular Citizenship Behaviours, Pribadi, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103055
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Extreme hydrometeorological events induce abrupt and widespread freshwater temperature changes across the Pacific Northwest of North America, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01407-6 14 cites.
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Avoid Sacrificing Nature to Truly Achieve Net Zero, Rigolot et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/con4.70046
Potential futures for the IPCC’s approach to artificial intelligence, Buck et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03514-y
Scientific coherence in climate change research: a meta-research perspective to accelerate scientific progress and climate justice, Acosta-Monterrosa et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1766738
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Earth Virtualization Engines (EVE), Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024 36 cites.
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Managing Natural Hazards and Climate Risks in Elections, Asplund et al., International IDEA
Elections are the cornerstone of democracy, but like all public functions they are vulnerable to disruption by events in the natural world, including earthquakes, floods, wildfires and heatwaves. As the climate changes, many natural hazards are increasing in frequency and severity, prompting electoral practitioners to seek ways to protect the vote from such phenomena. The authors survey the risk that meteorological and geological events pose to elections and offers an analysis of the strategies that electoral management bodies (EMBs) around the world have put in place to safeguard electoral processes. The authors draw on a rich database of more than 100 cases of disaster-disrupted elections between 2006 and 2025 to document the various effects that events in the natural world can have on all aspects of the electoral cycle and to delineate the range of strategies that are available to electoral administrators to minimize their adverse consequences.
Solar Permitting Scorecard. Grading all 50 states on removing obstacles to rooftop solar and home batteries, Elizabeth Ridlington and Johanna Neumann, Frontier Group and Environment America Research & Policy Center
The authors reviewed policies relating to the permitting and inspection of residential solar energy systems and battery storage in all 50 states. They found that a majority of states have done little to adopt common-sense practices that reduce the costs and delays that permitting and inspection requirements impose on families wishing to install solar panels and batteries. Only two states – California and Texas – received a “B” in the scorecard, two received a “C,” 24 received a “D” and the remaining 22 received an “F.”
People and Climate Change, Ipsos
As temperatures rise, the individual responsibility to act has fallen. The past 11 years have been the warmest in the modern era, but people increasingly place less responsibility in needing to act. In the last five years, all countries surveyed in the report in both 2021 and 2026 have seen falls in the proportion who agree that individuals would be failing future generations by not acting against climate change. Short-term fear is countering long-term preparation. While climate concern remains present – 59% on average across 31 countries say they country should be doing more in the fight against climate change - more immediate risks are seen as greater priorities. Our What Worries the World survey finds concern about climate change in 11th place, behind more tangible, immediate worries issues like crime, unemployment, and inflation. The energy transition is at a crossroads. Public support for transitioning to clean energy is increasingly conditional, contingent on affordability, reliability, and security trade-offs. The Ipsos Energy Transition Barometer finds one in two (50% across 31 countries) support governments prioritizing low energy prices even if emissions increase.
Extreme Heat and Agriculture, Simpson et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization
Extreme heat refers to situations where daytime and nighttime temperatures rise above their usual ranges for a protracted period, leading to physiological stress and direct physical damages to food crops, livestock, fish, trees and human beings. The authors examine how extreme heat ripples through agricultural systems and how heatwaves can interact with other climatological variables, including rain, solar radiation, humidity, wind and drought – to trigger compound effects that wreak havoc on individuals and entire ecosystems.
The 2026 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: narrowing window for decisive health action, Kriit et al., The Lancet Public Health
This third iteration of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Europe report systematically tracks the health effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation action, economics and finance, and the engagement of various societal actors with the climate change and health nexus, drawing on data up to 2025. The report features seven new indicators, methodological updates, extended time series for existing indicators, and highlights inequalities in health risks and impacts where possible.
Global Electricity Review 2026, Fulghum et al., Ember
75%=Share of global electricity demand growth met by solar power in 2025. 33.8%=Share of renewables in global power generation in 2025 – above a third for the first time, overtaking coal. -0.2%=Year-on-year change in fossil generation.
Climate Change and Migration from Central America: Insights from Migrants in Mexico, Kerwin et al., UC Berkeley School of Law
The authors examine how climate-related harms intersect with and exacerbate violence, exclusion, discrimination, and weak state protection to drive migration from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Drawing on interviews, desk research, and surveys with people on the move in Mexico, the authors show that climate change rarely operates as a single cause of displacement. Instead, migrants consistently describe how environmental shocks—such as droughts that destroy crops, storms that damage homes and livelihoods, and deforestation and extreme heat that undermine health and economic stability—exacerbate existing insecurity and hardship. The authors focus on Mexico as both a transit and destination country for Central American migrants impacted by these dynamics. The findings demonstrate that better understanding how climate change intensifies vulnerabilities to violence, insecurity, and loss of livelihood—and integrating that analysis into refugee and immigration representation and adjudication— can improve access to protection and to regular migration status under Mexico’s existing legal framework. The authors also offer specific recommendations to strengthen institutional responses to climate migration by the Mexican government and civil society actors to climate migration.
High Voltage. The global potential for industrial electrification, Cassandra Etter-Wenzel and Jan Rosenow, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Industrial electrification is becoming a matter of economic security as well as decarbonization. The authors argue that continued reliance on fossil fuels leaves 75% of global industry exposed to recurring price shocks, while electrification offers a pathway to stable and resilient energy costs.
Trust, Media Habits, and Misperceptions Shape Public Understanding of Climate Change, Marryam Ishaq and M. Speiser, ecoAmerica
A hidden climate majority exists. Most Americans are concerned about climate change, but they do not realize how widely that concern is shared. This perception gap (pluralistic ignorance) masks a strong hidden consensus on climate concern. Trust in information and personal concern about climate change reinforce each other. Americans who trust the information they see or hear are far more likely to be concerned about climate change (79%) — and those who are climate-concerned report higher trust. This creates a reinforcing loop between trust and concern. Media ecosystems shape climate beliefs. Where Americans get their news influences what they believe about climate and energy. While mainstream national media, local news, and social media remain the most widely used sources overall, partisan and age differences shape which sources are most relied on, which in turn shapes climate beliefs. Americans trust the information they encounter but doubt others’ ability to recognize climate misinformation. While many Americans trust the information they personally consume, they are far less confident in others’ ability to distinguish climate fact from fiction — especially when they perceive others as less concerned about climate change. Mistrust of others and misperceptions are core barriers to climate action. Rather than a lack of concern, some of the biggest barriers include eroded trust and misperceptions. Misperceptions about energy sources and others’ climate beliefs, combined with low confidence in the public’s ability to navigate climate misinformation, suppress visible engagement and slow individual and collective action.
Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Analysis for the United States 1990-2024, Desai et al., Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland
The authors present a comprehensive picture of greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks covering the geographical region of the United States. The data are presented for each year from 1990 through 2024, the latter being the most recent year when comprehensive data are available for the entire economy. Along with detailed results for single years and analyses of trends over time, the authors present methodological descriptions, data inputs, a characterization of uncertainties, recalculations, and improvements. The report was developed to supports comparability and continuity with past official U.S. inventories prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
From energy crisis to energy security: Actions for policy makers, Walker et al., The International Renewable Energy Agency
The current energy crisis stemming from the conflict in the Middle East re-iterates the inherent structural weakness and vulnerability of national energy systems that remain reliant upon fossil fuels, and markets where the costs of oil and gas are highly influential on electricity prices. There is an immediate opportunity, however, to urgently reassess these fundamentals and prioritize reactions that enhance long-term energy stability. The authors provide key short- medium- and long-term actions for policy makers responding to the present crisis. Policy makers must urgently consider intervening to direct investment and emergency responses to accelerate the deployment of renewable power generation capacity, and the electrification of energy-consuming processes and sectors.
State of Energy Policy 2026, Cozzi et al., International Energy Agency
The authors provide a unique review of policy progress made in 2025 across all energy sectors and instruments, with a special focus on government spending, energy efficiency regulations, and the contribution of the energy sector to nationally determined contributions and long-term net zero pledges. This year’s report brings an extensive examination of energy security policies to the period 1973-2025, from oil and natural gas to clean energy technology supply chains and critical minerals. It also spotlights the policy momentum around energy access, most particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, taking stock of the policy progress since the IEA Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa in 2024.
2025 State of the Heat Pump Water Heater Market Report, New Buildings Institute and the Advanced Water Heating Initiative
The authors discuss how residential and commercial manufacturers released more new and updated products in 2025 than any other year in the heat pump water heater's (HPWH) history. Five new residential manufacturers brought HPWHs to market, and many other established manufacturers brought updated and increasingly innovative products to market. New configurations and form factors also emerged, from flexible voltage (120-volt and 240-volt in the same unit) products, to split systems (where the compressor and tank are separated), to high temperature commercial and industrial HPWHs, to HPWHs with thermal storage.
Climate Change & Adaptation. Rethinking climate risk integration across business, finance and policy, Holloway et al., FTI Consulting
Financial institutions, corporate executives and investors are operating with climate risk models that systematically underestimate exposure by a factor of two to four times. This is not a compliance issue, instead it represents one of the most significant mispricing phenomena in modern capital markets, materializing today across credit spreads, equity valuations and capital allocation decisions. The authors analyzed 148 global companies representing $31.4 trillion in market capitalization to test whether current climate risk models provide decision-useful intelligence. The findings are stark: conventional platforms project approximately 2.0% portfolio losses, while the author's integrated analysis reveals 7.7% average exposure – a four-fold gap that stems from systematically underweighting transition risks relative to physical climate impacts.
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