Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2026
Posted on 16 April 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural phenomena, causing substantial economic damage and severe impacts on human life and infrastructure. Prolonged extreme ocean temperature events, known as marine heat waves (MHWs), affect 52% of landfalling TCs globally and provide favorable conditions for TC rapid intensification (RI). Here, we use four decades of global data to demonstrate that TCs experiencing RI during MHWs resulted in 60% more billion-dollar disasters compared to those without heat wave influence. Our analysis reveals these costlier storms produced consistently higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates. We found that, for billion-dollar TCs, even controlling for similar levels of coastal development, MHW TCs cause significantly higher damages than their counterparts, confirming that their enhanced intensity characteristics amplify economic impacts beyond what would be expected from exposure alone. These findings underscore the critical need for improved disaster preparedness as MHWs increasingly supercharge TCs’ intensity, leading to more frequent billion-dollar disasters.
Attributing and projecting record-shattering September tropical night events in East Asia, Seo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes
In 2024, East Asia experienced an unprecedented nighttime heatwave during the summer. This study analyzes the features of 2024 tropical night events in July-August (JA) and September (SEP) and projects their future occurrence under different global warming levels (GWLs). The analysis reveals that the daily minimum temperature and specific humidity reached unprecedented levels in both JA and SEP in 2024, remarkable in SEP with breaking records by four or more standard deviations. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, the 2024-like tropical night events exhibit zero probability of occurring under the historical climate with natural forcing only and remain rare even under historical climate involving anthropogenic forcing, particularly for SEP tropical night. Under future warming scenarios, the return period of 2024-like event drastically shortens, reaching 71, 10, and 2.5 years at 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C GWL, respectively, implying that such events could become frequent and nearly regular event under higher warming levels.
Sensitivity of Heatwave Characteristics to the Climatic Baseline, Fraser-Leonhardt et al., Atmospheric Science Letters
Temperature extremes are usually defined relative to conditions during a past baseline period. Due to global warming, different baselines produce different results for heatwave frequency, intensity, spatial extent and duration. This study investigates how the choice of baseline affects summer heatwave metrics across Europe from 1950 to 2023. We evaluate regional and temporal differences in heatwave characteristics using both grid-point analysis and a case study of the 2003 European heatwaves using observational daily maximum summer temperature for three different baselines (1961–1990, 1981–2010 and 1991–2020). Results show that more recent baselines yield a substantial reduction across Europe in observed heatwave frequency, of up to 12 days per summer in some southern European regions. The average intensity of heatwaves relative to the 90th percentile decreases by up to 2.0°C when using more recent baselines. The largest reductions are observed in southern and central Europe. The spatial extent of the 2003 European heatwave declines by more than 0.5 million km2 if using more recent baselines, and the duration shortens by up to 2 days as conditions that would have been extreme in the past are nearer the new normal. However, 2003 is still classified as a mega-heatwave under both baselines. Comparisons of fixed, detrended and rolling reference approaches show that methods that vary baselines, assuming linear warming—despite its unrealistic nature—yield similar results to rolling reference windows from 1960 onward.
A topographically-controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice-sheet melt, Petrini et al., The Cryosphere
A major impact of anthropogenic climate change is the crossing of tipping points, which may have severe consequences such as the complete mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). At present, the GrIS is losing mass at an accelerated rate, largely due to a steep decrease in its surface mass balance (SMB; the balance between snow accumulation and surface ablation from melt and associated runoff). Previous work on the magnitude and nature of a threshold for GrIS complete melt remains controversial. Here, we explore a potential SMB threshold for complete melt of the GrIS; the impact and interplay of surface melt and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in determining this threshold; and whether the GrIS exhibits characteristics commonly associated with tipping points, such as sensitivity to external forcing. To this end, we force the Community Ice Sheet Model v.2 (CISM2) by cycling different SMB climatologies previously calculated at multiple elevation classes with the Community Earth System Model v.2 (CESM2) in a two-way coupled CESM2–CISM2 transient simulation of the global climate and GrIS under high CO2 forcing. The SMB calculation in CESM2 has been evaluated with contemporary observations and high-resolution modelling and includes an advanced representation of surface melt and snow–firn processes.
We find a positive SMB threshold for complete GrIS melt of 230 ± 84 Gt yr−1, corresponding to a 60 % decrease in SMB and to a global mean warming of +3.4 K compared to pre-industrial CESM2–CISM2 simulated values. In our simulations, a small change in the initial SMB forcing (from 255 to 230 Gt yr−1) and global mean warming above pre-industrial levels (from +3.2 to +3.4 K) causes an abrupt change in the GrIS final volume (from 50 % mass to nearly complete deglaciation). This nonlinear behaviour is caused by the SMB–elevation feedback, which responds to changes in surface topography due to surface melt and GIA. The GrIS tips from ∼ 50 % mass towards nearly complete melt when the impact of melt-induced surface lowering outweighs that of GIA-induced bedrock uplift and the (initially positive) SMB becomes and remains negative for at least a few thousand years. We also find that the GrIS tips towards nearly complete melt when the ice margin in the central west unpins from a coastal region with high topography and SMB. We show that if we keep the SMB fixed (i.e. no SMB–elevation feedback) in this relatively confined region, the ice sheet retreat is halted and nearly complete GrIS melt is prevented even though the initial SMB forcing is past the threshold. Based on the minimum GrIS configuration in previous paleo-ice-sheet modelling studies, we suggest that the surface topography in the central west might have played a role in preventing larger GrIS loss during the last interglacial period ∼ 130–115 kyr BP.
From this week's government/NGO section:
The President and the Power Grid, Alexandra Klass and Dave Owen, SSRN
There is a sharp discontinuity between the second Trump administration's electricity policies and those of previous presidential administrations. President Trump has directed the Department of Energy to use statutory authority designed for wartime conditions and sudden emergencies to prevent electric utilities from retiring aging coal plants. In doing so, he has elevated the President's role in electric grid governance and reduced the primacy of the independent expert regulatory agency-the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-that Congress authorized to govern electricity markets and grid reliability. This Essay places these actions in historical context. It recounts the executive branch's role in electricity policy during the first part of the twentieth century, when the federal government responded to wartime crises by building new electricity supplies and actively managing existing electricity infrastructure. While these early and mid-twentieth century executive actions may superficially resemble present-day events, they were, in fact, profoundly different. Even amid the urgency of wartime, the executive branch was laying the foundation for an integrated grid managed by expert government agencies, not through direct presidential decrees, and it was working for technological progress, not regression. Building on this history, this Essay then explains why the present-day shift from expert agencies to presidential power in electric grid governance matters. The most obvious reason is that it will carry heavy financial and environmental costs to consumers and the nation. But the increased assertion of presidential power in electric grid governance also has doctrinal significance in light of recent developments in Supreme Court jurisprudence surrounding statutory interpretation and presidential use of emergency authorities.
Understanding the Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Restrictions: Evidence from Indiana, USA, Hicks et al., Center for Business and Economic Research, Miller College of Business, Ball State University
The authors summarize the findings of a broader empirical study examining the how county-level restrictions on utility scale wind and solar facilities affect economic activity. The results consistently show that counties adopting renewable energy restrictions for either or both wind and solar experienced weaker economic performance than counties without restrictions. Differences are most evident in employment outcomes and GDP, with effects concentrated in manufacturing and related sectors. Employment effects are mostly negative. Although 113 jobs were added in the agricultural sector, the total number of jobs in manufacturing and transportation/ warehousing declined by 8,841 exclusively in counties with restrictions), resulting in an overall net loss of 8,728 jobs. Counties with wind and solar energy restrictions experienced an aggregate net loss of $204 million in GDP, while adjacent counties experienced a GDP gain of $13 million. Counties with these restrictions also experienced slower growth in assessed value and local revenue. Over time, the reduced tax base can constrain the local government’s ability to fund public services or maintain infrastructure without raising tax rates.
107 articles in 53 journals by 763 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in ENSO-Induced Ocean Heat Content Redistribution under Global Warming, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0184.1
ENSO’s Strengthened Control over Global Climate Anomalies in a Warmer World, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0550.1
Future Warming of Circumpolar Deep Water Linked to Surface Buoyancy Forcing, Meng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023319
Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Xing et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz7738
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems, Ritchie et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-14-669-2023
Synergistic impact of marine heat waves and rapid intensification exacerbates tropical cyclone destructive power worldwide, Radfar et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu1733
The Time-Dependent Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to Pacific SST Forcing. Part I: A Conceptual Framework, Lin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0536.1
Observations of climate change, effects
Attributing and projecting record-shattering September tropical night events in East Asia, Seo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100900
Delta Blue Intensity chronologies from Siberian larch reveal robust summer temperature signals across northern Eurasia, Agapova et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111171
Long-term drought dynamics and agricultural implications in eastern Amhara Region of Ethiopia (1901–2020): Insights from the Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, Asfaw Eshetu et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000878
Observed multi-decadal trends in subsurface temperature adjacent to the East Australian Current, Hemming et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1145-2023
Reduced Spring Extratropical Cyclone Activity Over the East Asian Subtropical Region has Suppressed Regional Precipitation From 1979 to 2023, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045731
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Perspectives on university-based climate service providers in the United States, Leinberger et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-026-04150-3
Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer, Guinaldo et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-19-629-2023
Sensitivity of Heatwave Characteristics to the Climatic Baseline, Fraser?Leonhardt et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl2.70017
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Future Meteorological Droughts and Local Adaptation in the Social–Ecological Participatory Observatory Mapimí in Arid Northern Mexico, Arriaga et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0124.1
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015, Breil et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-21-811-2024
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Dynamical Model of the Tropical Pacific Zonal SST Gradient Change Under Global Warming, Ying & Watanabe, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120397
Assessing Aerosol Wet Removal Efficiency in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of the Community Earth System Model, Banks et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117102
Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models, Asaadi et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-411-2024
Comparative Assessment of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM Downscaled Surface Temperature over the Conterminous United States, Sun et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0176.1
Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM), Chao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0656.1
How Well Do CMIP6 Climate Models Simulate the Cold Air Outbreaks in East Asia?, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0424.1
Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science, Carslaw et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-4651-2026
Simulations of summer ENSO events with different evolutions of equatorial Pacific SSTAs in CMIP6 models, Ge et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109009
Cryosphere & climate change
A topographically-controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice-sheet melt, Petrini et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-63-2025
Evaluating Arctic sea ice and snow thickness simulations: methodological insights from MOSAiC and CMIP6 data, Trivedi et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1744420
Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), Berdahl et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
Four North American glaciers advanced past their modern positions thousands of years apart in the Holocene, Jones et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-5459-2023
Global Warming Amplifies the Risk of Uncertainties in Projections of Deepened Summer Thaw Depth Across Northern Hemisphere Zone, Sun et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006192
Hydraulic suppression of basal glacier melt in sill fjords, Nilsson et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-2455-2023
Impact of the Nares Strait sea ice arches on the long-term stability of the Petermann Glacier ice shelf, Prakash et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-5255-2023
Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections, Gao et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
Projections of precipitation and temperatures in Greenland and the impact of spatially uniform anomalies on the evolution of the ice sheet, Bochow et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5825-2024
Reduced glacier mass loss rates on the southern Tibetan Plateau during a global warming hiatus, Zhu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105476
Snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change during compound cold–hot and wet–dry seasons in the Pyrenees, Bonsoms et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-1307-2023
The Weddell Gyre heat budget associated with the Warm Deep Water circulation derived from Argo floats, Reeve et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1083-2023
Underestimation of oceanic carbon uptake in the Arctic Ocean: ice melt as predictor of the sea ice carbon pump, Richaud et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2665-2023
Sea level & climate change
Institutional Barriers to Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Towns: A Systematic Review of Academic Literature, Kazeminia & Mortreux, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70053
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Changes in Japanese quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica) blood gases and electrolytes in response to multigenerational heat stress, Truong et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000144
Climate change rather than grazing dominates the declined resilience of Chinese grassland, Liu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105483
Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms, Angeli et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73411
Climate warming strengthened but droughts eliminated the coupling between productivity and tree growth in semi-arid plantations, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03483-2
Delta Blue Intensity chronologies from Siberian larch reveal robust summer temperature signals across northern Eurasia, Agapova et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111171
Differentiation of cognate bacterial communities in thermokarst landscapes: implications for ecological consequences of permafrost degradation, Ren et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-4241-2023
Eastern North American Liana Distributions Reveal Conservation and Climate Mitigation Potential, Peters et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70188
Editorial: Forest growth in a changing climate: insights from predictive modeling and adaptive strategies, Ebrahimi & Rahemi, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1807606
Fir (Abies sibirica Ledeb.) in a Changing Climate Hydrothermal Regime and Effects of the Ussuri Polygraph (Polygraphus proximus Blandford), Kharuk et al., Contemporary Problems of Ecology 10.1134/s1995425525700994
Vulnerability of marine megafauna to global at-sea anthropogenic threats, VanCompernolle et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70147
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Asymmetric carbon response to the 2019 extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Kang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01402-y
Attributing 2019–2024 methane growth using TROPOMI satellite observations, He et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz9007
Climate and soil texture collaboratively shape important components of biocrust soil carbon cycling globally, Wei et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1746275
Continuous weekly monitoring of methane emissions from the Permian Basin by inversion of TROPOMI satellite observations, Varon et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-7503-2023
Differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimates explained, Lamb et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-2549-2026
Disentangling methane and carbon dioxide sources and transport across the Russian Arctic from aircraft measurements, Narbaud et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-2293-2023
Global patterns and edaphic-climatic controls of soil carbon decomposition kinetics predicted from incubation experiments, Xiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-37900-3
Impacts of land-use change on biospheric carbon: an oriented benchmark using the ORCHIDEE land surface model, Dinh et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-17-6725-2024
Legacy permafrost conditions limit deep carbon decomposition in thermokarst peatlands and ponds, Heffernan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03467-2
Measurement-based assessment reveals key drivers and mitigation potential of methane emissions from China’s wastewater treatment, Sun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec0536
Nuclear waste radionuclides unveil three decades of anthropogenic carbon in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean, Payne et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-71115-6
Physical and Ecological Forcings Drive the Particle Dynamics and Enhanced Carbon Export Efficiency in the Tropical Marginal Sea, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118489
Reconstructing the ocean's mesopelagic zone carbon budget: sensitivity and estimation of parameters associated with prokaryotic remineralization, Baumas et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-4165-2023
Rethinking Termite Methane Emissions: Does the Mound Environment Matter?, Yatsko et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70838
Satellite-Based Detection of Methane Emissions From Permafrost Peatland Warming, Nassar et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119600
Soil moisture and temperature effects on seasonal and diurnal fluxes of methane and other greenhouse gases from a temperate woodland, Batten et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111185
The biogeochemical model Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 provides plausible and accurate simulations of the carbon cycle in central European beech forests, Mergani?ová et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-17-7317-2024
The underappreciated importance of small wetlands in global methane emissions, Li et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02609-w
Towards a global assessment of coastal dissolved organic carbon, Toming et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2026.115388
Towards Right Answer for the Right Reasons in Global Land Carbon Sink Estimates, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70840
Uncertainty in Parameterized Convection Remains a Key Obstacle for Estimating Surface Fluxes of Carbon Dioxide, Schuh & Jacobson, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-6285-2023
Understanding the balance between methane production and oxidation from wetlands: insights from a reduced process-based model, McNicol et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-2309-2026
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Mobilizing carbon dioxide removals (CDR): getting the policies right, Winkler & Michaelowa, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2655517
Decarbonization
Bird collisions with wind generators in China: a review of avoidance and minimization measures, Friedrich, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10661-026-15193-5
Comment on “Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions” by Ocko and Hamburg (2022), Duan & Caldeira, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-6011-2023
From marginal renewable to strategic asset: Tracing the evolution of EU policies on biogas and biomethane, Shan et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115294
Geospatial green ammonia co-firing in China’s coal power fleets to avoid CO2 emissions lock-in, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-71625-3
Implications of the solar rebound effect for the European energy transition, Delic & Bucksteeg, Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-026-02031-8
Land Surface Temperature Shows Negligible Difference Between Inside and Outside Photovoltaic Power Plants in China, Duan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046444
The counterfactual policy scenario: are renewables cheaper?, Simshauser & Gilmore, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115253
Geoengineering climate
The Holton-Tan mechanism under stratospheric aerosol intervention, Karami et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023
Black carbon
Atmospheric black carbon in the climate system, Gustafsson et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00773-3
Aerosols
Anthropogenic aerosols override greenhouse gases in Sahel climate change, Nnamchi & Fiedler, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03474-3
Uncertainty in aerosol–cloud radiative forcing is driven by clean conditions, Gryspeerdt et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-4115-2023
Climate change communications & cognition
How do students and pre-service teachers perceive the climate crisis and global warming through the IPCC Lens?, Cebeci & Çal??kan, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1794627
Navigating climate change: a narrative analysis of the public tipping point discourse, Hansson et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2026.2655961
Risks and limits from a securitisation framing of nature and biodiversity crises: Lessons from climate change, Tebboth et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000873
The weather today rocks or sucks for my tree: Exploring the understanding of climate impacts on forests at high school level through tweets, Mölg et al., Geoscience Communication Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-7-215-2024
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Farm workers and the structural basis of climate change perceptions, Mortell et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103155
Harmonized European Union subnational crop statistics can reveal climate impacts and crop cultivation shifts, Ronchetti et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-1623-2024
Multimetric analysis uncovers time-dependent climate forcings from China’s 2.3-fold cropland reactive nitrogen emissions, Xu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2526386123
Potential dynamic changes of single-season rice planting suitability across China, Li et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02462-y
Trapped in Irrigation: Future Irrigation Expansion Amplifies Food–Water–Energy Policy Trade-Offs in Germany, Heilemann et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007226
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Future Meteorological Droughts and Local Adaptation in the Social–Ecological Participatory Observatory Mapimí in Arid Northern Mexico, Arriaga et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0124.1
Long-term drought dynamics and agricultural implications in eastern Amhara Region of Ethiopia (1901–2020): Insights from the Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, Asfaw Eshetu et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000878
Climate change economics
Safeguarding macro-financial stability under carbon pricing and rapid energy transition, Fierro et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03209-4
‘Net zero’ isn’t madness: the staggering economic costs of climate change, , Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/d41586-026-01020-x
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Climate risk and firm environmental accountability: Evidence for energy transition policy, Benkraiem et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115292
Deep Decarbonization Pathways for national development consistent with carbon neutrality, Waisman et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2026.2653898
From least-cost to SDG-optimal sectoral allocation of Paris Agreement-compatible mitigation efforts, Van de Ven et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3
Governance challenges for a rapid and just solar energy transition, Martin et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115312
Potential dynamic changes of single-season rice planting suitability across China, Li et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02462-y
The impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate green governance, Fu et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1746608
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Extreme heat reduces and reshapes urban mobility, Renninger & Cabrera, PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag078
Institutional Barriers to Sea Level Rise Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Towns: A Systematic Review of Academic Literature, Kazeminia & Mortreux, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70053
Lethal heatwaves are challenging India’s sustainable development, Debnath et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156
Risk without place: Why most climate risk assessments fail to support place-based adaptation, Anderson & Logan, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100816
Climate change impacts on human health
Increased Risk of Work Safety Accidents During Extremely High Temperatures, Zhu & Zhang, Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70251
The heat is on: Understanding public responses to heat-health alerts in England, Assan et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104685
Climate change & geopolitics
Climate club politics - the challenges of making a small group work on a global issue, Unger, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104684
Other
Is climate-related risk gender differentiated? An assessment at the sub-national level in India, Aggarwal & Kher, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2650761
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Compound Hot-Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low-Income Nations, Cai et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118822
Opinion: Beyond global means – novel space-based approaches to indirectly constrain the concentrations of and trends and variations in the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), Duncan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-13001-2024
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Afghanistan, Brodtkorb et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The authors focus on Afghanistan and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the country. They offer a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Afghanistan faces severe climate vulnerability while being more exposed to extreme weather events and natural hazards (including droughts and floods) than the global average. This has been compounded by environmental degradation caused by prolonged conflict, poor natural resource management and limited resilient infrastructure. Together with complex humanitarian and economic crises and mass returns of Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, all these factors deepen the population’s vulnerability to overlapping crises.
A New Era of Manufacturing for Public Good: The Case for the California Grid Manufacturing Initiative, Moynihan et al., Climate and Community Institute, United Auto Workers Region 6, and The BlueGreen Alliance Foundation
California faces intertwined crises of accelerating climate change and rising cost of living. Major bottlenecks in the supply chain for critical electricity grid components—including transformers, switchgears, and more—delay required grid modernization and stall the deployment of significant renewable energy and battery storage projects around the state. Not only are parts delayed, they have become increasingly expensive, driving up the cost of electricity for ratepayers. A new state-level bill (AB 2516) would establish the California Grid Manufacturing Initiative (CGMI) to address these challenges and proactively plan ahead to avert supply chain crunches that burden ratepayers and slow the green transition.
The Impact of Federal Permitting on Clean Energy Development, Crux Climate
The authors examine the impact federal permitting on clean energy developers, specifically those developing solar and/or wind projects, with and without storage, who develop and hold or develop and sell projects. Nearly 80% of all clean energy developers surveyed reported having encountered federal permitting-related issues, suggesting these challenges are pervasive across the country.
The President and the Power Grid, Alexandra Klass and Dave Owen, SSRN
There is a sharp discontinuity between the second Trump administration's electricity policies and those of previous presidential administrations. President Trump has directed the Department of Energy to use statutory authority designed for wartime conditions and sudden emergencies to prevent electric utilities from retiring aging coal plants. In doing so, he has elevated the President's role in electric grid governance and reduced the primacy of the independent expert regulatory agency-the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-that Congress authorized to govern electricity markets and grid reliability. This Essay places these actions in historical context. It recounts the executive branch's role in electricity policy during the first part of the twentieth century, when the federal government responded to wartime crises by building new electricity supplies and actively managing existing electricity infrastructure. While these early and mid-twentieth century executive actions may superficially resemble present-day events, they were, in fact, profoundly different. Even amid the urgency of wartime, the executive branch was laying the foundation for an integrated grid managed by expert government agencies, not through direct presidential decrees, and it was working for technological progress, not regression. Building on this history, this Essay then explains why the present-day shift from expert agencies to presidential power in electric grid governance matters. The most obvious reason is that it will carry heavy financial and environmental costs to consumers and the nation. But the increased assertion of presidential power in electric grid governance also has doctrinal significance in light of recent developments in Supreme Court jurisprudence surrounding statutory interpretation and presidential use of emergency authorities.
Responding to climate change-related insecurity in the Lake Chad region, de Coning et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
The aim of this study is to contribute to generating evidence-based knowledge on the most effective strategies for preventing and managing climate-related conflict and instability. We focus on the Lake Chad region and its Regional Strategy for Stabilization, Recovery and Resilience of the Boko Haram affected Areas of the Lake Chad Basin Region (RS-SRR). The authors selected this case because the Lake Chad region is highly exposed to climate change and environmental stress, and the RS-SRR represents a concerted cross-border, multi-dimensional and multi-scale effort to improve the security and stability of the region. We found that the implementation of the strategy has contributed to reducing armed group related violent conflict and fostered pathways toward recovery. However, climate and environmental stressors undermine the sustainability of gains recorded thus far and contribute to new inter-community conflicts. Overall, they identified three strategy implementation gaps.
Climate Stress and EU Cohesion. Strengthening European Resilience through Climate Adaptation, Ron Stoop and Laura Birkman, The Hague Center for Strategic Studies
The authors examine how an uneven geographical distribution of the socio-economic impacts of climate change could create conflicts of interest between EU Member States, potentially undermining the Union’s political, economic and strategic resilience. The authors map cascading climate impacts across a hierarchy of effects. First-order effects refer to the direct physical impacts of climate change, which cascade into second-order effects: the socio-economic consequences of these climate hazards. These, in turn, may generate third order effects in the form of political conflicts of interest arising from unequal socio-economic impacts. Over time, such escalating tensions can weaken the systemic political and economic cohesion of the European Union
U.S. Banking Agencies’ Participation in Climate Risk Network, Clements etal., Government Accountability Office
The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is an international network of central banks and financial supervisors that works to address climate risk management in the financial sector. Its steering committee forms working groups, which in 2024 issued 19 publications, including updates to climate-scenario analyses and guidance on sustainable investment. Established in 2017, NGFS serves as a forum for sharing best practices and conducting analysis on climate risk management in the financial sector. It has advocated for mobilizing capital for low-carbon investments. As of January 2026, it had 149 members from more than 92 countries. GAO was asked to examine the U.S. banking agencies’ membership in NGFS. This report describes why the Federal Reserve, OCC, and FDIC joined and later withdrew, and the extent to which the agencies participated in activities and shared information with NGFS while they were members.
National Renewable Energy Atlases for Wind, Solar and Hydropower – WMO Implementation Guidelines, World Meteorological Organization
This technical publication serves as a comprehensive user manual for the development and implementation of national renewable energy atlases (NRAs) for wind, solar and hydropower in WMO Members. Its primary purpose is to provide step-by-step guidance for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and other relevant stakeholders (for example, ministries of energy) to create high-resolution atlases using past and future climate data from different sources, such as simulated data, observational data and projection data.
Enhancing California’s Resiliency to Natural Catastrophes. Senate Bill 254 (2025) Study Report, Johnson et al., California Earthquake Authority, Administrator of the Wildfire Fund
The scope of this research study was expansive, encompassing a wide array of complex, interconnected policy imperatives that California must address and balance to enhance catastrophe resiliency – climate change and the attainment of long-range clean energy goals; the resiliency of communities, homes and people; the stability of the insurance market and electric utility sector; and consumer affordability. These topics impact every Californian.
Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in March 2026, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Warmest March: The contiguous U.S. (CONUS) average temperature was 9.4°F above the 20th-century average, making March 2026 the warmest March in the 132-year record. Prolonged warmth: The April 2025–March 2026 period now stands as the warmest 12-month span ever recorded for the CONUS (since 1895). Record daily heat: 1,432 counties—over half the CONUS area and one-third of the population—observed their single warmest March day on record (1950–present).
Understanding the Economic Effects of Renewable Energy Restrictions: Evidence from Indiana, USA, Hicks et al., Center for Business and Economic Research, Miller College of Business, Ball State University
The authors summarize the findings of a broader empirical study examining the how county-level restrictions on utility scale wind and solar facilities affect economic activity. The results consistently show that counties adopting renewable energy restrictions for either or both wind and solar experienced weaker economic performance than counties without restrictions. Differences are most evident in employment outcomes and GDP, with effects concentrated in manufacturing and related sectors. Employment effects are mostly negative. Although 113 jobs were added in the agricultural sector, the total number of jobs in manufacturing and transportation/ warehousing declined by 8,841 exclusively in counties with restrictions), resulting in an overall net loss of 8,728 jobs. Counties with wind and solar energy restrictions experienced an aggregate net loss of $204 million in GDP, while adjacent counties experienced a GDP gain of $13 million. Counties with these restrictions also experienced slower growth in assessed value and local revenue. Over time, the reduced tax base can constrain the local government’s ability to fund public services or maintain infrastructure without raising tax rates.
The New Twin Fossil Shock. How the energy crises of the 2020s speed up the electric age, Butler-Sloss et al., Ember
The 2020s have already seen two major fossil fuel shocks. In 2022, Russia, the world’s largest fossil fuel exporter, invaded Ukraine. In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s largest oil and LNG supply route, was shut by the US-Israel war with Iran. The parallels with the 1970s oil shocks are striking. But so too is the difference. For the first time, there are scalable, cost-competitive alternatives. Solar, wind, batteries, EVs and other electrotech offer a permanent route out of fossil dependence. The shock has jolted the electric age forward. But the response is a choice: lean into local, electric security, or reach back to the old fossil playbook.
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