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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 61551 to 61600:

  1. Oceans Acidifying Faster Today Than in Past 300 Million Years
    Suggested reading: “In Fight to Save Coral Reefs, Finding Strategies that Work” posted by Dusti Becker, Yale Environment 360, Mar 13, 2012 In four decades as a marine biologist, Nancy Knowlton has played a key role in documenting the biodiversity of coral reefs and the threats they increasingly face. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, she assesses the state of the world’s corals and highlights conservation projects that offer hope of saving these irreplaceable ecosystems. To access this informative article, click here .
  2. It's not bad
    John Hartz ...and also with you. ;)
  3. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    I was surprised that Rachel did not mention the Berkeley study. I had emailed her several months ago about it, emphasizing that it was a vindication of ClimateGate, a confirmation of Global Warming, AND a defeat of the Koch Brothers - kind of a Climate Change hat trick. I thought the last one especially would get her attention, and she might do a story on it. I at least thought she would use it against Inhofe - "OK, maybe you don't trust the EPA, but how about the Koch Brothers, are they trustworthy?" Alas, I guess she doesn't read all her emails after all.
  4. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    SirNubwub, This thread is about Inhofe making misleading and fallacious arguments. Going by your odd comment it seems fair to say then that you endorse Inhofe's myths and misinformation? If not, please let us know which of his myths you do not agree with. Thanks.
  5. An Open Letter to the Future
    @10 Alces Now that Saskatchewan has found oil/oilsands in the north and shale gas in the south, we may have to re-evaluate.
    Moderator Response: [JH] Please provide source material and explain who "we" are and what is to be re-evaluated.
  6. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    SirNubwub: "The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself." FDR
  7. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    SirNubWub What is even scarier is that no one , elected or unelected, will have the political will to make the changes that are needed to keep warming to 2C or less.
  8. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    Also, to advocate for certain measures (for any purpose)--which is what I would understand as being the meaning of "we should" do this or that--is quite different from "regulation." Of course transforming our energy economy into a susatainable one will change lives. But so did public health measures--which also involved some share of regulation. It seems perverse to assume that, simply because regulation may be required to achieve some end, therefore the real end is in fact regulation.
  9. michael sweet at 03:10 AM on 21 March 2012
    It's too hard
    Eric: the CATO Institute is a right wing canned research foundation owned by the Koch brothers. You need to start citing peer reviewed articles, not Koch propaganda. I can see why you are so uninformed about so many different subjects. As far as developing economies (which are OT on this thread), if there is widespread drought caused by AGW there will be widespread disruption and starvation. Try to find some reliable sources to refer to instead of canned research.
  10. The History of Climate Science - William Charles Wells
    Love it!--and would love to hear about that sometime, too.
  11. Inhofe's Myths on Maddow
    The essay here says that you do not know what "regulate life" means. I hope you are not serious when you say you think it means regulating breathing. I hope you are just being sarcastic. "Regulate life" means that if you are really serious of really regulating carbon, you are affecting virtually all aspects of life, often to the point of regulating choices. Regulating energy use by transportation means that you affect the production of food and other business enterprises. Fuel prices affect how people commute to work and take vacations. Operating and regulating the "smart grid" to limit CO2 production means you have the technical ability to regulate when people choose to use certain appliances in their own homes and what temperature they choose to keep their homes. People have argued that to limit (regulate) CO2 we should limit the meat that we choose to eat, the types of light bulbs we choose to buy, the number of children we choose to have, the size of TVs that we are allowed to buy, the size of cars that we choose, how much vacation travel we are rationed (yes, all of these have been proposed). Someone a long time ago said that "the power to tax is the power to destroy", or in this case, the power to highly influence many personal choices we make in everyday life. The idea has been recently proposed in Scientific American that a more powerful UN or other world government body needs to be instituted to enforce CO2 regulations. Having unelected elites with such power is truly frightening.
    Response:

    [dana1981] By your definition all regulations "regulate life".  For example, environmental regulations take away your choice to dump hazardous waste into public water ways.  Also what "people have proposed" is irrelevant.  What is relevant is what is being proposed in legislation considered by policymakers.

  12. funglestrumpet at 02:43 AM on 21 March 2012
    2012 SkS Weekly Digest #11
    Just a small ammendment to comment 7, above: Change the need to rate out of 10 the factual quality of the post being commented on from 'on each post' to the first comment and make it automatically added for each subsequent comment about the particular item under discussion. This should be a required item before the post can be displayed.
  13. The History of Climate Science - William Charles Wells
    Have a go - it's very easy to make the box (or cylinder) out of a large sheet of polystyrene foam usually sold as an external house wall insulator. I guess an optimal shape for the box or cylinder would be a trapezoidal prism or truncated cone with outwardly sloping sides covered in aluminium foil that would also bounce out any laterally incoming incident IR. Instead of my wok, a polished aluminized satellite dish placed at the bottom should really get the temperature down at the focus - perhaps even more than 20C below ambient. On a still clear night, the cooled air in the box would be retained, but if there is a slight breeze then perhaps an IR-transparent version of cling film could be used as a lid. Keep the focus out of sight from any other external objects. For really optimal performance, add a CO2 scrubber! :-) However, the wok served well as a proof of concept. Might be too late to patent it now, but it was fun. Also a great experiment to teach kids about radiation and energy balance. How can it make ice without electricity when the temperature is well above freezing point? One could try pumping in some CO2 to see what effect it would have at different concentrations. I also made a very scary death-ray out of a 1.2m diameter satellite dish... but that's another story! :)
  14. New research from last week 11/2012
    The "Carbonic Acid Gas" phrase reminds of the half-wit on one forum who tried to argue that Tyndel did *not* detect the radiative nature of CO2, but that of carbonic acid. Yes, Virginia, science-deniers really are that dense and/or self-deluded.
  15. It's not bad
    mohyla103: One out of twelve of the Apostles was a "Doubting Thomas." May the Force be with you.
  16. New research from last week 11/2012
    Apologies for the OT post here -- but I just found out that "Lord" Monckton will be appearing here in San Diego on the 24th. Details here: http://octeapartyblog.com/event/lord-monckton-at-university-of-san-diego/ Monckton will be giving a presentation at the Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace and Justice Theatre, 5998 Acala Park, University of San Diego, Saturday Mar 24 at 7PM. A California Assemblyman from east San Diego County (our own "cultural" outback) will be MC'ing the event. Of course, I don't expect that folks from Down Under will be likely to pop by ;) ;), but if anyone here knows any San Diego area scientists (like folks at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography -- SIO is just a few minutes from USD) who might be interested in "crashing Monckton's party", please pass this along to them Rather short notice, but this event is being promoted to Tea-Partiers and right-wing GOP types here (with very little notice being given to the general public). Like I said, apologies for the OT post here -- this may not be something that genuine scientists would want to bother with, but I thought I'd try to get the word out anyway.
    Moderator Response: [JH] For future reference, consider the comment thread of the most recent SkS Weekly Digest to be an "Open Thread" for purposes of posting of notices such as this.
  17. It's not bad
    I see! So when a previous poster said that rain simply "runs off a glacier" this wasn't entirely true, and it's the drainage system within a glacier that can actually help prevent floods by slowing down the rate at which the rain can flow downhill. I guess this is what Tom Curtis was talking about. It makes a lot more sense now; thanks for the explanation mspelto! ====== A little aside here: While many may blindly accept the existence of AGW and accept any predictions of what the future holds for the planet simply because they hear about this in the mass media or pop culture, I cannot blindly accept it. This is not to say that I *will not* accept it, as has been implied here by at least one person. My position is simply that I won't accept something until I first see the evidence. Others telling me that there IS a mountain of evidence is still not going to sway me. I need to examine and try to understand it firsthand. That is why I am here on this site after all: to get deeper into the real evidence, all the while looking at it critically until I have a clear understanding of it one way or another. Skeptical Science really is an apt name for this website. As an analogy, many people believe aliens have visited Earth, but I'm not going to believe that just because others do, no matter what their number. The same applies to AGW and its predicted consequences. I'm not going to believe it simply because others do, no matter what their number. There is a difference though: there is actually a fairly solid scientific consensus on AGW and its consequences, as well as an abundance of published literature, so it is actually worth my time to go and exam the evidence. This seems like a reasonable position to me. I hope everyone on this board understands where I'm coming from now and if I ask any seemingly ignorant questions you will know my intentions are sincere. Thanks to those who have actually clarified things for me. You have not only helped me gain a deeper understanding, but the countless other "skeptical" visitors to this site who may be reading these posts.
  18. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    West129, I try not to waste too much time with people who are completely ignorant of the realities behind climate science, and yet saunter in to write long, authoritative, declarative speeches about how things really are and how dumb everyone else is. Other readers can take what they choose from what you say. To my mind it speaks volumes in identifying how entrenched the ignorance is among those who adamantly don't want to understand or recognize the climate science... and these are the same small, easily-manipulated minds that are such easy prey for predators like Inhofe. You would do well to turn your critical, un-accepting eye on Inhofe and his ilk, rather than on the climate scientists.
  19. Daniel Bailey at 23:45 PM on 20 March 2012
    It's not bad
    mohyla103, please note that mspelto is a widely respected, practicing/publishing glaciologist who is kind enough to make himself available here at SkS from time to time. Some of the above links I gave you refer to his work. He is also the author of several posts here at SkS and at RealClimate.
  20. It's not bad
    mohyla I admire your persistence. Glaciers that do receive large rain events are generally in temperate settings. Take southern Alaska. During such rain storms not only do we have the precipitation from rain, but this also causes quite a bit of snow melt. Thus, the actual water that will drain off per unit area can be greater than elsewhere. However, glacier plumbing systems filtering the water through the snowpack etc is slow. This spreads out the increased discharge and does not lead to a spike that triggers floods. If we take the Himalaya summer monsoon than rain only falls low on the glacier and again the drainage system is not as efficient as non-glaciated areas.
  21. Eric (skeptic) at 23:24 PM on 20 March 2012
    It's too hard
    michael sweet, I appreciate your feedback in the other threads on ocean warning and developing economies. The developing economies do not need to build cars nor completely convert their economies from agriculture, but they can move a step up from subsistence agriculture and add considerable robustness to environmental catastrophe. Thailand is a good example of bouncing back after their floods. Industry can also include business process outsourcing that is non-energy-intensive. CATO published a well-balanced article http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa659.pdf pointing out some of the drawbacks and benefits to globalization. One drawback is rising wage inequality (that may be a persistent feature of capitalism). The main benefit is economic robustness which helps to tackle present and future problems including problems resulting from warming, especially in developing countries.
  22. The History of Climate Science - William Charles Wells
    I must say, that's a version I hadn't heard of! Very ingenious--it makes me want to 'try it at home.' I suppose that in 'throwing away the energy,' the important point is that you are locally decreasing entropy.
  23. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    West129 wrote: "...the whole climate science appears to be at a similar stage where e.g. chemistry was with alchemy. From my perspective and considering its age this is in deed still true. Otherwise, why does research continue if we already know it all" So from this we must conclude either that: all research in the field of chemistry has ceased or you are making a blatantly irrational argument. I wonder which it could be.
  24. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    West129 wrote : "...the whole climate science appears to be at a similar stage where e.g. chemistry was with alchemy. From my perspective and considering its age this is in deed still true. Otherwise, why does research continue if we already know it all, and why do the predictions become revised or outdated so fast?" Could you substantiate that a bit further by telling how old you think "climate science" is, and how old it would have to 'become' before you would accept it in the same you can accept Evolution or the prevailing Cosmological Model, for example ? (That's assuming you do actually accept them in some way ?) By the way, neither of the latter can or have actually been 'proved' - that is not how science works, as explained by the letter from 255 members of the US National Academy of Sciences : For instance, there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5bn years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe was born from a single event about 14bn years ago (the Big Bang theory), and that today's organisms evolved from ones living in the past (the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category: there is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend. What are your arguments against that statement ? West129 also wrote : "...I pointed at the two factions of the present while you point at the scientific battle between two camps in the past. That past battle isn't over. As you well know, the center of the universe was or is the earth. But that merely depended what point one picked as a reference. Believe it or not, now science tells us we are wrong again and our universe isn't the center either. Also, may I remind you, by “scientific consensus” the earth was declared to be flat much like what climatologists attempt with AGW-CO2. History tells us not to swallow any proclaimed axiom or rally behind a science that appears to be more destructive than the CO2 itself." Historical arguments/controversies about the Earth's place in the universe or its shape had/have nothing to do with science (if you can even call it that) and everything to do with religion. When rational investigation had taken place into those questions, they came to the conclusions that later scientific investigations 'proved'. See the 'battle' between Geocentrism and Heliocentric at the Wikipedia page, where you will see that both systems had merits and had been debated for many centuries even up to the 17th/18th Centuries. You can read about the Myth of the Flat Earth at another Wikipedia page. Ultimately, in both cases it was science which prevailed, as it does with regard to the Theory of AGW - unless, of course, you know of any science which says otherwise ? And do you have any further information about your belief about "a science that appears to be more destructive than the CO2 itself" ? What does that mean ?
  25. Ari Jokimäki at 20:55 PM on 20 March 2012
    New research from last week 11/2012
    I guess I could have indicated more on the content of the classic but I thought I'd surprise you. :)
  26. Dick Veldkamp at 20:41 PM on 20 March 2012
    The Big Picture (2010 version)
    Excellent summary of the issue! I found a typo you may want to fix: "there is a there is a" (under 'There are legitimate unsolved questions").
  27. The History of Climate Science - William Charles Wells
    Thanks Doc, I enjoyed this, particularly where he described what I know as a "Cold Collector". I didn't know that the idea was so old. I made one once about 15 years ago, out of a large metal wok and 5-sided cubic polystyrene box with thick walls open to the sky. I put the wok in the bottom of the box, and suspended a jar of water roughly where the wok focus was and left it overnight in the garden away from any overlooking objects. The outside temp was around 8C, but the water inside had frozen solid by morning. Most impressive. Free ice without a fridge! The International Space Station uses something similar to regulate heat, but I'm wondering if a cold collector could be scaled up and used to radiate Earth's excess heat. Use a heat exchanger to concentrate energy at a focus to radiate. The scale required would be quite unimaginable though. It could perhaps replace powerstation cooling towers that affect climate, and also be used for radio astronomy at the same time. Still seems such a shame to throw away energy!
  28. Doug Hutcheson at 20:12 PM on 20 March 2012
    Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    West129 @ 35, you say:
    History tells us not to swallow any proclaimed axiom
    Surely, history tells us not to accept anything uncritically, but to confirm our theories with evidence, evidence, evidence. Then you say:
    or rally behind a science that appears to be more destructive than the CO2 itself.
    I take this to mean that you would reject a science which gave you answers you didn't like? Clearly, science is not destructive in and of itself: it is merely enquiry and understanding. CO2 is not destructive in and of itself, but the result of adding too much to our atmosphere looks like being destructive of ecosystems we value. Thus, it would be correct to say that failing to act upon the warnings science is giving us is what would result in destruction, not the science itself. What we know (scientific learning) does not matter; what matters is what we do (public policy) with what we know. You may be willing to proceed through life ignoring the best available advice, but I hope our political leaders will follow a more prudent course. For the same reason, I buy insurance for my home and my car, even though I consider the risk of loss to be low. The future cost of governments acting as though there is no problem and being wrong is unimaginable.
  29. Doug Hutcheson at 19:41 PM on 20 March 2012
    New research from last week 11/2012
    Bernard J. @ 1, I am currently in "discussion" with a similar person on a site I visit regularly. This classic reference is a real gem, which I will drop into the "conversation" at a suitable moment. Thank you for pointing it out - I probably would not have followed the link! My bad.
  30. New research from last week 11/2012
    @1 Bernard J. No, they are not behind. They are just returning to the roots. The grand plan behind right wing climate skeptic ideology is to throw out all scientific and technical achievements made during last two hundred years. They want us to give up our cars and cell phones, and return to pre-industrial golden age. You know: Horse carriages, blood letting and men in tights. They promote pure naturalistic life style, where corrupted liberal science will be substituted by the Wisdom of the Ancients. So Aristotle it will be, not Newton. Four humors teached in medicine schools, and our brightest minds concentrating to the number of angels dancing on pinhead. Some entertaining witch burning for masses, of course.
  31. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    West129 You cite "There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change." from an overview of climate science. I'd suggest that a very similar statement could be published from any number of medical science overviews. "There is still an incomplete understanding of the many interactions of the dozens of hormones and their precursors and their role in fertility, psychiatry, obesity, allergies, arthritis, cancer and other instances of physical health or ill-health." And they'd be right. But we still go to doctors and specialist endocrinologists or oncologists or rheumatologists or allergists and send blood samples off for pathology tests of various kinds. The view of experts in these fields is exactly that. The view of experts. Their job is to identify areas of further research which might or might not apply to us personally nor to the daily practice of clinics and hospitals. But they would never say 'we have no idea why the spleen is where it is let alone what it can and can't do'. And the same thing goes for climate science. The UN happens not to have established an overview group for endocrinology in the same way as it has for climate. But you can be absolutely sure that if they did produce such reports, non-experts would wonder when they read them how anyone ever got diagnosed with diabetes let alone geto prescribed an accurate dose of insulin. Medical science has a lot still on its plate. As does climate science and every other area of scientific endeavour. They all suffer the same fate. The more you know, the more you find questions that need answers. This indicates neither ignorance nor immaturity. It's just science.
  32. An Open Letter to the Future
    owl, you said it "science-fiction" - the future is compartmentalized, walled off, too much to deal with, but it comes all the same, and far too quickly. It's also uncomfortable, imagining a future world without being in it. These thoughts preoccupy me as I seek to achieve some significance and a new mission in my unusual life. It would however be nice to leave the world in a better place than I found it, and be remembered for a positive contribution to it. Maintaining a strong education and cultural system is a very high priority as we are not born with knowledge, wisdom and morality. Each new generation of humans need constant "programming" to avoid reverting to cave people. Electronic storage may be too volatile to survive, though Google and Facebook are doing a good job of archiving humanity and individuals. I hope they store the information in EMP proof shelters in at least 5 locations around the world, in case of nuclear war, or medium asteroid strike. Also consider that we are on the cusp of designing our own evolution, and traits - I think that whatever society may be around in 5000 years time will be humanoid hunter-gatherers or immortal silicon/carbon hybrid electronic lifeforms based on novel DNA, or a mixture of both, as the gaps between rich and poor, beautiful and ugly, intelligent and stupid and improved mate selection systems (dating sites) continue to increase. As our population multiplies and forms an inverted pyramid increasingly reliant on its support system being ever more efficient with fossil fuels, skills, science, optimized agriculture and transport, when something fails, it will fail catastrophically. Especially more likely if the anti-science backlash continues. I don't think the general population has any real idea of how close to the brink we are. Yes, it would be good to leave a message saying sorry - carved in stone or titanium, or encoded in our DNA... Perhaps the seed bank in Svalbard or in Yucca Mountain may be a good place to start. That's enough for now!
  33. An Open Letter to the Future
    Ron Manley - the long atmospheric lifetime of CO2 means the Earth will probably not experience another 'ice age' for tens of thousands of years. See work by David Archer & Victor Brovkin for instance. 25% of fossil fuel emissions stay around effectively 'forever' on human timescales.
  34. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    29, Sphaerica ….the whole climate science appears to be at a similar stage where e.g. chemistry was with alchemy. From my perspective and considering its age this is in deed still true. Otherwise, why does research continue if we already know it all, and why do the predictions become revised or outdated so fast? I pointed at the two factions of the present while you point at the scientific battle between two camps in the past. That past battle isn't over. As you well know, the center of the universe was or is the earth. But that merely depended what point one picked as a reference. Believe it or not, now science tells us we are wrong again and our universe isn't the center either. Also, may I remind you, by “scientific consensus” the earth was declared to be flat much like what climatologists attempt with AGW-CO2. History tells us not to swallow any proclaimed axiom or rally behind a science that appears to be more destructive than the CO2 itself. Yes, I was quoting from IPCC AR3... 2001, more than 11 years old. But not much has changed since then except the computing power. It might have increased by a magnitude making the simulations run faster but not much better. Let's understand what the computers are used for: To simulate the past (back-cast) and if it seems to fit to be able to project into the future. Nowhere in the ICPP AR4 (2007) report do I read that those calculations are forecasts. There is talk about more models and capabilities to run several scenarios or “What ifs” very fast. The models are still manipulated with assumptions, corrections compensation or amplification factors. Therefore, those computers are like any other computer: depending on the inputs they will provide outputs with multiple adjustments to produce the desired results. The limitation remains that at the current time we are dealing with an rather infantile science. Not all parameters of the climate are known nor are their actions and interactions. E.g. it may appear that it should be a simple task to use a computer as a random number generator. Does anyone have a computer yet that can produce true random-numbers? No. Why would one assume that by running a scenario on high powered computers would produces a climate forecast? Scenario, after all, is a fancy term for a “what if calculation”, a very useful research tool for the scientist but dangerous in the hands of politicians. ICPP is aware of its limitation an has never retracted its position: “... we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible”. AR4 looks to be a bit closer by harping on the term “forcing”, which is to say by considering another factor for the models but there is still a long journey ahead for them. My recommendation is not to overestimate the capability of models but to appreciate the distinction between scenario and forecast to avoid conclusions base on a misconception. IPCC, AR4 reports re-confirms that they don't have all the answers. And let's be realistic, if they would claim to know it all we are in deep trouble because we would know that they are not scientists. One most interesting admission appears to be an attempt to re-introduce solar radiation: “.... However, the relationship between the isotopic records indicative of the Sun’s open magnetic field, sunspot numbers and the Sun’s closed magnetic field or energy output are not fully understood ...” This is in conjunction with Fig. 6.13. This figure shows that +0.5 C of the Hockey stick is the direct result of the sun's solar irradiance forcing. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6-3.html ). What is one to make of that? It says that the sun influenced past climates but for some reason IPCC claims the sun is “extremely unlikely” to influence future climates. The reports serve their purpose of not being truly scientific material but means to aid those removed from the science valuable information and aid in rendering an optimum public policy decisions. At the same time the reports are more than outdated and still have that famous disclaimer everyone likes to overlook: “...the complexity of the climate system and the multiple interactions that determine its behaviour impose limitations on our ability to understand fully the future course of Earth’s global climate. There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change. Key uncertainties include aspects of the roles played by clouds, the cryosphere, the oceans, land use and couplings between climate and biogeochemical cycles. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-1.html
    Response:

    [DB] Please note that this is a website which discusses the scientific evidence for & against climate change and debunks skeptic memes about the science.  As such, it is implicit on all parties to back up assertions with citations and links to the peer-reviewed papers appearing in reputable journals that support their assertions.  Additionally, all comments made must be on-topic to the thread on which they are placed and also be constructed to comply with the Comments Policy.

    The portions of your comment in conflict with the above were struck out.  An earlier comment of yours pretty much containing the same issues was judged to be trolling and was deleted as such.  Future comments such as this will be deleted in their entirety, as will responses to it.

    Note that nearly 5,000 comments threads exist here at SkS on pretty much everything there is related to climate science.  None are closed for discussion.  Find the most appropriate thread (via the Search function in the Upper Left of every page) and place the relevant portions of your intended thoughts there.

    FYI.

  35. An Open Letter to the Future
    While Kate's concern is understandable, the situation 5000 years from now will be very different to how she pictures it; the earth will be well into the next ice age. Large parts of Canada, northern Europe and Russia will be under metres of ice. Ice core data suggest that ice ages are arid times and climate refugees will be fighting to get closer to the equator and the remaining agricultural land. Global temperatures will be lower but we will have squeezed every drop of warming fossil fuel out of earth. Those who are alive in 5000 years time will look back on our period as the age of profligacy.
  36. An Open Letter to the Future
    Where did anyone get the idea that there's no thought about thousands of years ahead? It's been a mainline theme in science-fiction for over a century. From the Time Machine to Foundation, connections of the human present to far-future consequences has been fertile ground - for everything, from archaeology missions to find out what happened, all the way to utopian fulfillment. So what's the want - an encyclopaedia message sent out (done that); a survival ark of species' DNA (got one)? Deep Thought? It it's time, effort, and money, to gain the gratitude of the future ... it's a non-starter. It's royal emotion and good conscience. The Greeks paid no attention to environmental concerns - if they could exploit, they did exploit. So did the Romans. So did everyone throughout history (the noble-savage Indian romance is someone else's storybook). The focus on the pollution problem today - affecting up to a century from now - is, and should be, the focus of everyone demanding a response.
  37. Declining Arctic sea-ice and record U.S. and European snowfalls: are they linked?
    Thanks for that, Neven.
  38. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    Interesting follow-up on the Nisbet study - one of the co-authors, Robert Brulle, considered the report trash, and apparently returned the money as he walked away from it. Check the comments out:- Christain Shorey comment
  39. New research from last week 11/2012
    Let's pause and think on that classic reference for a moment:
    As compared with the data for the earth’s surface near Stockholm, published by Palmqvist, and those for Wexholni, published by Selanders, the Andrée results, as shown in a table arranged according to the altitudes of the respective layers of air do not prove any diminution of carbonic acid gas with altitude up to the highest point, 4,300 meters, attained in these balloon ascensions. On the other hand the percentages of carbonic acid gas by volume throughout the different strata of air are very much the same as those observed at the surface of the earth. On the average we find in 10,000 volumes at the earth’s surface from 3.03 to 3.20 volumes of carbonic acid gas; at altitiides of 1,000 to 3,000 meters, 3.23 volumes; at altitudes of 3,000 to 4,000 meters, 3.24 volumes.
    So, more than a hundred years ago it was demonstrated in the scientific literature that CO2 is effectively homogeneously mixed in the atmosphere - certainly where the bulk of mass occurs. And yet we still have denialists who insist that it forms a layer at the surface because it is "heavier than air". Tim Curtin is one who comes to mind - back on a classic Deltoid thread he really didn't want to let go of his attachment to this false idea. Some folk are more than a little behind the times...
  40. An Open Letter to the Future
    Kate, Thanks for a thought-provoking article. Unfortunately governments have difficulty thinking beyond the next election. GaryB, Regarding your remark about "the Canadian prairies ... the heart of Canadian conservatism and anti-science" - you might want to do a bit of research on Saskatchewan, birthplace of public medical insurance. Alberta it ain't.
  41. Roy Spencer's Bad Economics
    I am convinced that we are experiencing global warming and that it is caused by greenhouse gases. But I have two concerns. The first is the estimated of the cost of the reducing the use of fossil fuels. I am not an economist, but I am a chemical engineer with over 30 years in the approval, design and construction of chemical plants. I have developed a program to compare the costs between using the current mix of energy sources and limiting the use of fossil fuels between now and 2100. This program and sources for the data can be found at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Alb0IxaBZzT8dEE4a2tOQW1OdEZYQW02blk5RlhRQUE I am sure that some of my data and assumptions may be obsolete or incorrect. You can play around with it by changing the inputs on Sheet 2 and I would appreciate any feedback on more correct information For the case shown I assumed a population in 2050 and 2100 of 10 billion and a world per capita energy usage of ½ US current in 2100 and half way there in 2050; a fossil fuel reduction from current levels of 25% by 2050 and 50% by 2100; no increase in Nuclear or Hydro; a 50/50 split between wind and solar energy to make up for the reduction in fossil fuels and I adjusted the fossil fuel cost from $0.02 sited in the source to $0.05 and the cost per KWH generated by fossil fuels from $0.087 to $0.117. In the above case the program calculates the cost of limiting fossil fuels to be $308 Trillion between now and 2050 and $1,394 Trillion between now and 2100. That equates to an average annual per capita cost of $788 between now and 2050 and $1,565 between now and 2100. All these cost are in today’s dollars. Actual numbers will be much higher. The second concern has to with land usage The IPPC says that there is currently 0.6 acres of cropland per person, but if you subtract out non-food or minimum calorie acreage (cotton, wool, tobacco, coffee and tea etc.) it is closer to 0.5 and if you add 3 billion more people it drops to under 0.4. In the US it takes 0.37 acres of wheat to supply one person with 2000 calories a day for a year. With the world average wheat yield it takes 0.75 acres. As can be seen by the previous sentences there is room for improvement in yield but there are also reports that climate change is reducing yields. A 2000 calorie/day diet based on the US food pyramid takes in the neighborhood of 1.25 acres. As developing countries become more affluent their citizens will want to improve their diet. I do not know what the total amount energy required to produce the world’s food supply is but one site said that 2% of our total energy usage is required to make the fertilizer currently consumed. I apologize for not providing references for this portion. I hope to rectify that situation in the near future. I just think it would be a real shame if the carbon dioxide we eliminate by limiting fossil fuels is replaced with carbon dioxide from changes in land used to feed the world.
  42. An Open Letter to the Future
    On a number of occasions I've made the point that humans are able to think back in history to past events, and to care about the morality/ethics of these same events, but that they are completely intellectually/culturally unequipped to project a similar analysis (and caring) into the future. The emerging sea level rise hockey stick thread is one example on Skeptical Science. The thing is, most humans seem to be as unable to perceive the significance of having such a concept pointed out, as they are of perceiving the importance of forward thinking in the first place. Is this a genetic or a cultural limitation? I don't know. Perhaps it's both. As Westerners we should be ashamed that other, non-technological cultures such as the Native American Nations - who were at the time of the peaks of their nations hunter-gatherer societies - neverthelsss had the sophistication of thought to enshrine ecological sustainability into their decision-making with a dictum to think back over seven generations of their ancestors, and forward to seven generations of their decendants. If a hunter-gatherer society can look forward seven generations, why should a global technological society not look forward to at least the time span of 70 generations, or even of 700? If we are able to (pipe) dream of one day reaching the stars, we should be simultaneously thinking about what we need to consider in order to arrive there... On the matter of the duration of a Western society remaining sufficiently intact to read a letter to the future I, along with many others, am as pessimistic as Doug H and R. Gates are above, about the chances... Combining climate change with: 1) ocean acidification 2) deforestation and habitat destruction 3) over-fishing, over-hunting, and general species loss 4) topsoil depletion 5) water depletion 5) pollution 6) other environmental/ecological destruction and there's not a lot of wiggle room left to keep an organised human society going, especially at the global level. It's only if a critcial mass of humans can very quickly start caring about what life might be like for their decendants in 3 000 years time, that there might be more than a forlorn hope for the integrity of our societies.
  43. New Research Lowers Past Estimates of Sea-Level Rise
    "was posted online on Mar 14, 2912" And I just read Kate's article which starts with "To the citizens of the world in the year 5000: It’s 2012, and nobody is thinking about you" You are a third of the way there.
    Moderator Response: [JH] Unforced error corrected.
  44. It's not bad
    Daniel Bailey, thanks for your detailed explanation and links. I learned, among other things, that snow cover in the accumulation zone throughout the summer and not just snowfall in the winter is necessary to maintain the glacier's mass balance. The thing I don't understand is from post 178 from Tom Curtis. Since I'm not sure if he will answer me or not, perhaps you could help clarify this? He said that glaciers "help prevent floods, and prevent seasonal water shortages". I understand how they prevent seasonal water shortages, but how do they help prevent floods?
  45. actually thoughtful at 14:29 PM on 20 March 2012
    Interactive mythbusting in Lane Cove
    John - I am glad you did this and that it went so well. I am not sure what your skill set/career path was when you started SkS, but you are becoming a world-class expert in the psychology of educating hostile minds. I hope you find a way to make money doing that.
  46. Rachel Maddow Debunks Climategate Myths Using Skeptical Science
    JMurphy @23 What is really astounding about the statement you cite is "I was actually on your side of this issue when I was chairing that committee ... " ... a larger load of balderdash would be hard to find anywhere. He didn't become committee chairman until (albeit very briefly) 2001, and actually got to sit there for a while in 2003. Prior to that, he was best known for calling the Environmental Protection Agency "the Gestapo" and comparing the EPA administrator to Tokyo Rose. Calling the Torygraph a 'left-wing paper' seems like a mischaracterization, but he is actually so far to the political right that from his standpoint it is accurate. The scary thing is that there are actually seven sitting Republican Senators even farther to the right than he is.
  47. An Open Letter to the Future
    @5&6 - Though this is ostensibly "a letter to the future", it is, of course, first and foremost, a letter to the present, through the rhetorical device of addressing the future. @1. The ancient Greeks deforested Greece and caused the local extinction of various megafauna (including the lion). Plato was already musing on the causes and effects of deforestation. Greece has never really recovered ecologically from this, and the soil erosion it suffered as a result has been one of the sources of its subsequent poverty. @Kate. Thank you. An excellent and moving letter.
  48. actually thoughtful at 12:30 PM on 20 March 2012
    Climate Deniers Are Giving Us Skeptics a Bad Name - Fred Singer
    Thanks Michael Sweet - I am not advocating a deep ocean strategy, but I do think if we had another 100 years we would have an even easier technical solution that we have now. The fact is, we could solve global warming within 20 years - if we ever decide we want to. The technology exists now.
  49. Daniel Bailey at 12:22 PM on 20 March 2012
    It's not bad
    @ mohyla103 Precipitation falling on a glacier is a case-dependent thing. Remember that the mass-balance of a glacier is a dynamic output of gains in the accumulation zone factored against losses in the ablation zone. Other variables are temperature, insolation, form of the precipitation, etc. That precipitation falling in the accumulation as snow typically gets compacted over time and eventually is converted into ice. During the summer melt, even the accumulation zone may contain melt pools or even melt lakes. These are drained via moulins into the body of the ice mass into the internal plumbing drainwork of the glacier. That precipitation falling as rain will largely be carried off via runoff of the outside of the glacier or into the interior plumbing. Glaciers not at their terminal extent often have a lake that forms at the terminal end of the glacier, impounded between the icy tongue of the glacier and the terminal moraine of rock, silt and soil that serves the function of a dam. These glacial dam-formed lakes can empty and fill according to the mass-balance of the glacier. High melt seasons can fill the lake beyond capacity, sometimes resulting into a catastrophic collapse and flood. When these occur, many thousands of people living in the flood plains below can perish in the massive walls of water and mud that ensue. How warming is affecting alpine glaciers is the reduction of the accumulation zones and the increases of the ablation zones. The result is a tilting of the vast majority of the mass-balances of the alpine glaciers of the world. Even those of the Himalayas (a post on this is in the works). HTH. Some resources for you: http://www.nichols.edu/departments/glacier/global%20glacier%20mass%20balance.htm http://www.nichols.edu/departments/Glacier/glacier%20survival.html http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/ http://www.geo.uzh.ch/microsite/wgms/
  50. New Research Lowers Past Estimates of Sea-Level Rise
    Please note that I have amended the OP by adding the name of the source paper and a link to its Abstract.

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