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Comments 64451 to 64500:

  1. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Stevo@14 "Looking at ..... leads me to feel that the job of sowing doubt has already succeeded. Have people had long enough to make up their minds, set their opinions and move on ...?" I know it's depressing Stevo but there are positive indications. The FUD campaign on tobacco did delay action, but action was eventually taken. These clowns are now fighting a rearguard action in most countries and looking to new markets in others rather than pursuing or expanding a successful strategy. Public views on smoking changed and we now have effective programs in place. My other example might surprise you. Deodorant. No effective deodorants were available in the 50s. By the end of the 60s absolutely everybody used deodorant. Except for a few diehards .... who claimed that such fripperies were unmanly. (I worked with such a bloke in the 70s who used the 'unmanly' argument. Walking into his office on a warm afternoon when he'd ridden his bicycle to work in the morning was a great incentive for concise speech and brief conversation.) I suspect we're moving, however slowly, into the only-the-diehards-say-deodorant-is-unmanly stage of climate discourse.
  2. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    DaneelOlivaw, I would not condone this type of action and I think SkS and the rest of the (true) sceptical community should make this very clear. Sorry, but I absolutely condone this type of action. I consider it a totally valid instance of whistleblowing. Given the stakes for all life on Earth and the secrecy of groups like Heartland, I think it's not just defensible but necessary. If anyone reading this has access to similar documents, I hope you also find the courage to do the right thing. Just one man's opinion, of course.
  3. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    It seems they also have issues with freedom of information. Under "Overheads" in the 2012 budget we find:
    An estimated $36,000 to pay lawyers for litigation over whether Heartland can be forced to hand over records of conversations with a donor of some five years ago. Maureen Martin, our legal counsel, is working with a lawyer in Madison County, which is [d]ramatically reducing what would otherwise be the cost.
    They don't like the tables being turned, apparently.
  4. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    #1 Dana, Australian Dr Wes Allen "weather makers reexamined" seems to have relied heavily on Idso's misrepresentations of the science for his book of fantasy. . .
  5. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Someone asking Bill Gates about Microsoft funding Heartland? Not exactly in line with Bill and Melissa Gates Foundation I would have thought.
  6. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    muoncounter @65 Ok, I am done. Sorry for the off-topic chatter. Daniel Bailey does frequently warn me to stay on topic. Tom Curtis @63, Thanks for the link to the Konikow paper, I did read it.
  7. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    DaneelOlivaw @20, there is a difference between the University of East Anglia emails, which where hacked (aka, stolen) and these which are reported to have been leaked. As such, the proper comparison (if you want one) is not to the UEA emails, but to the leaking of the Round 0 draft of the next IPCC report. There is an issue about leaked documents, ie, do they represent an illegitimate violation of confidentiality, or are they whistle blowing on matters kept secret in which there is a legitimate public interest in their disclosure. On the other hand, there is no question that hacked information is stolen; and once stolen their leaking may be an illegitimate violation of confidentiality or legitimate whistle blowing, but that does not change the nature of the original criminal offense.
  8. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    DaneelOlivaw -- I agree that stealing is bad. Do you know these were stolen? When can it be confirmed that these documents were or were not stolen.
  9. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I would add that this documents, just as the climategate emails, were stolen. I would not condone this type of action and I think SkS and the rest of the (true) sceptical community should make this very clear. That said, Holly Sh*t
  10. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Australian readers will be interested in part of the 2012 funding for the NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change), showing links between Heartland and our very own IPA (Institute of Public Affairs):
    Table 3. 2012 Personnel Budget for NIPCC Project
    Payment/monthNameChapterInstitutionCountry
    $1,667Robert CarterCo-EditorJames Cook University & Institute for Public AffairsAustralia
    The anti-science brigade have long arms and deep pockets.
  11. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    Getting off coal and oil electricity is what I meant. The main issue with efficiency is efficiently transfering the high-energy protons to electric current. Of course, if less than 1 percent of the money that goes into Tritium-Deuterium fusion, those issues would be solved much quicker than with only 1 colege professor and 5 graduate student working on them. Here is a link to a page you might want to read. http://www.thespacereview.com/article/536/1
  12. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Norman#61: Your AGU reference points up a major flaw in your argument. “The rate of depletion increased almost linearly from the 1960s to the early 1990s,” says Bierkens. “But then you see a sharp increase which is related to the increase of upcoming economies and population numbers; mainly in India and China.”--emphasis added Here's a graph of sea level rise: -- source The sharp increase in groundwater withdrawal does not appear in the sea level curve; groundwater cannot be a significant factor. This off-topic distraction must cease.
  13. Global Sea Level Rise: Pothole To Speed Bump?
    Enginerd @72, it's a bit hard picking out that blue dot siting astride the end of the trend line. But yes, it's there, and the highest to date.
  14. Global Sea Level Rise: Pothole To Speed Bump?
    For what it's worth, the latest data point for sea level was just posted---and it is the highest observation in the period of satellite record. One data point, I know, but we may indeed be heading out of the "pothole". [This is my first time posting a hyperlink using HTML. Forgive me in advance if I botched it...]
  15. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Dale @15:
    "John Cook should also specify where all his funding is coming from."
    Skeptical Science doesn't receive any funding.
    "How many billions a year do Governments spend propping up the AGW message?"
    Um, roughly zero?
    "Also I can't believe you're making a mole-hill over a few million a year."
    Just "a few million" from one of the many climate denialist think tanks. Denialist damage control has begun.
  16. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Tom Curtis @55 Are you certain of your claim in point 1)? "Groundwater is water located beneath the ground surface in soil pore spaces and in the fractures of rock formations." Because it is located beneath the surface of the Earth, it is not subject to evaporation" Here is a study that directly contradicts your view. "Soil evaporation is a significant loss or depletion from the water balance. Most often, this water balance component is lumped together with plant transpiration into the collective term “evapotranspiration (ET).” However, because evaporation and transpiration are distinctly different phenomena, it is useful to consider evaporation explicitly and separately." source. I am sorry to continue to pursue this line of thought but you do question my integrity and indicate I am a dishonest person your quote: "But you have dug your heals in either because you are so intent on deception you do not recognize how transparent you have been, or because you are so foolish that you genuinely do not know what cherry picking is. In either case it makes no difference for the reader, your word, and your data is not to be trusted because you will not, or are incapable of handling it with integrity." I do like your points Tom but it is unpleasant that you think the worst of me. The final point. I reread the post you are bringing up and making the claim I am dishonest. Post @31 here is my claim in that post: "This means that the water pumped out of this aquifier will indeed add to the surface water amount. Yes it will add to the surface storage, the atmosphere and yes the ocean as well." There is nothing false or misleading in this statement. It is a factual comment based upon the evidence presented. The water pumped out of the Ogallala Aquifier will increase surface water storage. What is misleading in that comment or point? That is the only point I made in comment@31. I did not use this example to calcualte SLR, I only may the postive statement that from this particualr aquifier, it will add to the surface water.
  17. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Dale @15, neither John Cook nor any other genuine scientist receives money conditional on their "...focus continu[ing] to align with [donors] interests." Evidently funding to and from the Heartland Institute does. This does not mean the individuals involved hold their ideas in order to receive a pay check, but it does mean that their pay check is conditional on their continuing to hold certain ideas. In contrast, scientists are not funded to hold specific ideas, but to test them and see if and how they are flawed. What is more, the quickest way to prominence for a scientist is to show how a widely accepted theory is flawed. Thus the payoffs in finances and prestige work in exactly the opposite direction to the payoffs from the Heartland Institute. The former work in favour of critiquing ideas, while the later works in favour only of preserving certain ideas from well grounded criticism.
  18. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    DougH @13, So WUWT is now confirmed to be part of the disinformation machine. Anthony Watts also is lined up to receive almost $100 000 for developing a web-site dealing with surface temperatures. Roger Pielke senior was closely tied to Anthony's surfacestations.org, I wonder how much (if anything) he receive for his efforts. This "debate" is not about science for the fake skeptics-- it is about spin, disinformation, advocacy, ideology and money. EOS. I'd like to see their reports circa 2009. I wonder whether or not hacking the CRU was on their agenda? ;)
  19. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    @15, And predictably the fake skeptics/trolls descend to try and defend the indefensible and dismiss this. LOL.
  20. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Norman @61, Bierkens and Beek, the authors of the poster to which you linked, are co-authors of Wada et al. They use a slightly refined version of Wada et al's method, adding only the use of water demand as a proxy for abstraction. As such, the are subject to the same criticisms as Wada et al as detailed in the quote of Konikow in my preceding post. Read that quote carefully. Better yet, read Konikow 2011 carefully and pay attention to everything. Finally, water held in dams is water not being held in the ocean. It does not matter where the water comes from.
  21. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    I hate to be the fly in the ointment here, but I wonder if this revalation is already too late. Looking at reader comments on news sites and blogs over the last couple of years leads me to feel that the job of sowing doubt has already succeeded. Have people had long enough to make up their minds, set their opinions and move on to other, more recently newsworthy topics? I hope not. I cannot back up my conclusions with data but feel that the denialists have given themselves a very strong lead and that few in the media will be bothered to return to climate science as a newsworthy topic. Sorry to be so uncharacteristicaly pessimistic.
  22. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    KR @58, for the first time I am going to disagree with you (but not by much). Specifically, I am suggesting that Church et al, 2011 probably gives more accurate figures than Milly et al 2010. There results are as follows: The figures are not strictly comparable due to differing time periods, so convenience I have calculated Milly's figures for the 1993-2007 interval as a weighted average ((2*1993-2003 +2003-2007)/3). I have also combined contributions from all forms of ice melt, again for convenience of comparison. Finally, I have placed the difference between the equivalent Milly and Church figures (Milly - Church) in brackets after each figure: Observed: 2.9 mm/year (-0.32 mm/year) Thermal Expansion: 1.18 mm/year (+0.3 mm/year) Glaciers & Icesheets: 1.5 mm/year (-0.23 mm/year) In each case Milly's results are within the error bounds of Church et al's analysis, hence the small disagreement. In both cases, the GRACE analysis discussed in the OP strongly suggests that they have overestimated the contribution of ice melt. Specifically, over the period of the GRACE analysis, total ice melt contribution to sea level was 1.5 mm per year. Over the most comparable period from Milly et al (2003-2007) the combined ice contribution was 2.1 mm per year, suggesting Milly has over estimated the ice contribution by 40%, while Church has overestimated it by 61%. That would suggest that Church et al's residual for tidal gauges and satellite measurements should be around 1.35 mm per year, which is a large hole in their budget. It should be emphasized that these figures are approximate only because, firstly the periods of analysis do not strictly correspond, and secondly because of the short duration of the GRACE study which means it is significantly influence by short term effects. In particular, the GRACE analysis includes the very wet Asian Monsoon of 2010 which is likely to have contributed substantially to snow fall in the Himalayas, significantly altering the glacial mass balance compared to the preceding decade. Never-the-less there is clearly still some way to go before we can be entirely confident in Sea Level budgets. Finally, you will have noticed that Church et al show a greater contribution to sea level rise from ground water depletion than to Milly et al, but that net contribution from terrestial storage is negative. Church's estimate is based on that in Konikow 2011, with Konikow being a co-author of Church et al. (More on Konikow 2011 later.) I notice that Norman now pins his confidence in Wada et al, 2010. In doing so, he ignores the careful analysis by Wada comparing (surprise, surprise)recharge to abstraction (withdrawals). Further, he quotes a document that concludes global groundwater depletion was 243-323 km^2/year with an annual contribution to sea level rise of 0.8 mm/year as supporting his claims that groundwater depletion was about 545 km^3/year, and the sea level contribution was 1.52 mm/year. He is also citing a paper that claims that groundwater depletion averages at 40% of total withdrawals in support of his methodology of ignoring recharge. Apparently he has no sense of irony. Given Norman's reliance on Wada (a distinct improvement from his previous position if he actually accepts their results), it is worthwhile quoting Konikow's critique of Wada et al:
    "The first two estimates are based on a limited number of direct aquifer evaluations. The estimate of Wada et al.[2010] is derived using an indirect, flux‐based water budget approach that assumes that groundwater depletion is equal to the difference between natural recharge and withdrawals—an approach that is not based on observations of groundwater conditions. Recharge values are derived from global‐scale modeling designed to estimate “diffuse” recharge from climatic data and soil properties [Döll and Fiedler,2008]. This methodology does not calculate recharge from surface‐water bodies, nor adjust depletion estimates in accordance with Theis’ [1940] principles, which are applicable regardless of climate (Wada et al. [2010] only allow this for humid climates). Even in the Nubian Aquifer system—the classical example of a fossil groundwater aquifer having no modern recharge—about 25% of the total withdrawals in 1998 were offset by (and derived from) reductions in natural discharge from the system (such as to springs and oases) [CEDARE, 2001]. The global modeling approach to estimating natural recharge also does not account for “non‐natural” non‐diffuse recharge, such as leakage from canals, sewers, or pipelines, or from artificial recharge—none of which depend on climate and soil characteristics inherent in their recharge estimation model. Hence, the flux‐based water budget approach of Wada et al. [2010] can substantially overestimate groundwater depletion. Problems with the approach of Wada et al. [2010] are illustrated by examining their results for areas in the US where depletion data exist. Figure 2 of Wada et al. [2010] shows highest rates of depletion in four areas in the US (red zones, rated at 300–1000 mm/yr of depletion), which appear to include the Los Angeles and San Diego areas of southern California. In the Los Angeles area, depletion is closely tracked by local agencies. These data and analyses (see auxiliary material) indicate that from 1961 to 2008 the cumulative change in storage was an increase of ∼0.20 km3, and in 2000 was a decrease of ∼0.04 km3/yr. This corresponds to a rate of depletion of less than 20 mm over the area of resolution of the map of Wada et al. [2010]. In the San Diego area, there is no large‐scale development of groundwater, and no reported depletion problems of significance."
    Konikow uses empirical measurements of groundwater depletion in the US to calibrate his estimates. While superior to Wada et al, this approach of assuming the USA is typical of global ratios between depletion and withdrawals is dubious. Consequently we should also expect further improvements on Konikow's, and hence Church et al, 2011's, estimates of groundwater depletion.
  23. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Not to mention the admission of the existence of a denialist army, as they say they are working in
    coordination with external networks (such as WUWT and other groups capable of rapidly mobilizing responses to new scientific findings, news stories, or unfavorable blog posts)
    (my emphasis added). Do they fund the inciters of hatred, who post email addresses such as Katharine Hayhoe's? Where's my share of the billions supporting AGW 'alarmists' we are always hearing of? I could do with $80K to build a new web site ... tax free, of course.
  24. Climate mythbusting at Lane Cove, Sydney on Feb 28
    Shame I can't get to Sydney on that date (was there last week). I'd take you up on the challenge. Come to Melbourne, John.
  25. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    KR @60 Since you are done posting on this topic. I still feel the need to defend myself from your claim that I am not taking in groundwater replenishment. Also on the impoundment equation, unless they use groundwater specifically for filling of a reservoir, the -0.25 given for impoundment would include all sources of water not just ground water. Reservoirs are generally filled by river flow and the source of this preciptiation is not singular to groundwater, melting ice will also contribute via evaporation of ocean water. Anyway here is the link that shows water abstraction and recharge rates on a global scale. This piece does address clearly Tom Curtis's objection. Nonrenewable water abstraction. Another article from the American Geophysical Union that is supporting the point I had made. American Geophysical Union paper. Considering there are experts in the field that are indicating that a quarter of current SLR may be caused by groundwater mining, maybe you should not be so convinced my position is wrong. It could be wrong but you should be open to that as a real possibility and in the future with more study I believe it will be demonstrated that the position I have taken is the correct and scientifically supported one. Wait and see but keep an open mind to this possibility before you slam the messenger. Thanks.
  26. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Deniergate. Heartlandgate. These are incredibly devastating revelations-- next a list of all those fake skeptic scientists who have ties with Heartland please. "This influential audience has usually been reliably anti-climate and it is important to keep opposing voices out." This shows the fake skeptics to be total hypocrites when they falsely claim climate scientists play gatekeepers-- they are accusing others of doing exactly what they are doing (also in terms of Heartland et al. falsely claiming that climate scientists are "in it for the money"). It also calls into question the relationship between Forbes and groups like Heartland and WCR. Who else has fallen under Heartland's spell? Why was this information hidden from people? So many questions just waiting for some good investigative reporters to sink their teeth into.
  27. Bert from Eltham at 12:25 PM on 15 February 2012
    Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    This just goes to show if there is a real conspiracy it will eventually leak. Bert
  28. New research from last week 6/2012
    No Lou, I remarked on much the same thing when Ari was writing the post. A cooling effect of -1.6 W/m2 is exactly the number that Hansen & colleagues have come up with too. It would also explain why ocean thermal expansion appears to have tapered off a bit in the last decade, whilst the contribution to sea level rise from ice melt has accelerated. Meanwhile, of course, the incremental greenhouse gas forcing is growing a tiny wee bit every week. (cue ominous orchestral music..........) We will get around to covering this. Like you say, it seems to have slipped under the radar.
  29. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Deep Climate has a good summary of some of the main documents as well.
  30. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    And don't miss this nugget from their Strategy Memo, which John Cook Tweeted earlier: "We are pursuing a proposal from Dr. David Wojick to produce a global warming curriculum for K-12 schools. Dr. Wojick is a consultant with the Office of Scientific and Technical Information at the U.S. Department of Energy in the area of information and communication science." "His effort will focus on providing curriculum that shows that the topic of climate change is controversial and uncertain - two key points that are effective at dissuading teachers from teaching science." Maybe a journalist should give a call over to OSTI at DOE, to get their reaction.
  31. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Oh look, another 'gate'.
  32. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Please notice a couple of things. Most obviously, they believe their own bullshit, or at least most of it. And note what is not there, There is no mention of any attempt to understand and explain climate, only of attempts tho attack the current understanding of the climate. This is, as expected, evidence of wanting science to come up with politically palatable conclusions. No consideration of the possibility that they might be up against inexorable laws of nature and might have to modify their politics accordingly. Magical thinking, if they can argue well enough against something then it must be false.
  33. New research from last week 6/2012
    Am I the only one here who thinks the Makkonen, et al.paper on the climate implications of reducing aerosol pollution is terrifying? I'm in no way questioning their conclusions, nor do I mean to suggest this is a very recent discovery. But I find it mind blowing how serious the potential impacts of this factor could be, and how far beneath the radar it manages to fly. The evidence of our "Faustian bargain", as Hansen calls it, has been right in front of us for some time. All one has to do it look at the infamous bar graph from the latest IPCC report that shows the forcing from various factors, and then realize that those shielding aerosols are a very nasty and visible form of air pollution (ask China) that various countries either have been limiting for years or are now starting to get serious about controlling.
  34. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Dana, I'd be surprised if Idso didn't act as a conduit, funneling a chunk of that money on to others. What I wouldn't give to see all of their past budgets as well. I'm sure Anthony will claim that the $88K he's getting is all going towards building this "web site." It will be very interesting to see what it looks like when it's done (if ever, and how much it really cost to put up). I think it's no surprise that their 2010/2011 review has a line item labeled "Contributions to Allies" with $0 in both years. They'd never be that obvious, even on their own reports.
  35. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    But ... but ... (splutter) ... isn't it the AGW crowd who have their noses in the trough of a well-funded conspiracy aimed at world domination? The very idea that Anthony Watts might not have the purest scientific motivations is unthinkable. No, all these documents are clearly forgeries put together by The Cabal in order to discredit the work of real scientists, like Watts and Bolt and Monckton and ... and ... everyone in the Tea Party. Hmph! This cannot go unpunished. Time for more of OUR kind of science: lawsuits and FOI claims and email hacking. We'll teach those AGW-conspiracy chappies to toe the line.
  36. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Hmm, I wonder... will the mainstream media even bother to report this? I'm thinking perhaps most of them wont, unless and until it becomes a big story through the efforts of a few.
  37. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    And they have the gall to accuse climate scientists of being in it for the money!
  38. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Additional information is posted by John Mashley at the following URL: http://www.desmogblog.com/fake-science-fakexperts-funny-finances-free-tax
  39. Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
    Stunner #1 - Craig Idso makes a six figure salary from Heartland. Stunning in the large sum of money, and the fact that he's really not that prominent. I don't think Heartland is getting their money's worth on that one!
  40. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    All interesting but still doesnt address the question of would be the cost per kWh of the energy, even when considering just the mining cost alone. The bigger objection is that Kulcinski's reactor is not a demonstration of viability - it needs 3 orders of magnitude more energy than it produces. It shows He3-He3 fusion is possible but not yet that it is practical. I dont think you could regard this as "short term" solution at all. Long term, maybe. Getting off oil isnt really quite so much of the problem. (The price you will pay for it by the end of 2012 will help). Getting off coal is and I think fusion is going to have come a long way very very fast to be competitive in price with that.
  41. Peter Hadfield on Himalayan glacier melt
    andylee @ 29 Thanks for the explanation. I wondered how the ratio became so skewed. Is that a Tea caddy he is shaking, perchance?
  42. Climate change policy: Oil's tipping point has passed
    scaddenp- If sufficient manufacturing infrastructure was built on moon, it is easily conceivable that a rail-gun or coil-gun could launch simple capsules all the way to earth. They would only need a heat-shield, parachutes, and a landing area. - an He-3 reactor uses an electrostatic field to confine the plasma, since the particles are charged. Gerald Kulcinski, a professor at the University of Wisconsin, has built one in his lab. The reason that an industrial scale reactor has never been built is that the only He-3 on earth comes from decaying Tritium i.e. old H-bombs. -Also, I was mistaken when I said that all the known He-3 on the moon would power the global power grid for 1000 years. It would only power the US for that long, and since the US is about 1/4th of the global power supply, the real figure would be 250 years. But, you will frequently see in blogs that the He-3 on the moon is only about a meter deep. This comes from the Apollo core samples only going to down to 1M, and there is no reason to think that it all stops there.
  43. 2000 Years of Climate Reconstructed from Pollen
    Getting away from the details of how surface temperature varies from proxy to instrumental on Greenland, there are three proxy pieces of evidence that splat Camburn's bowhead whales of 1ka idea (let alone St Roch): 1: exposed shorelines round NE Greenland indicate ice-free conditions furthern north than present between c. 8.5-6ka BP (Funder 1989, ref in Polyak et al 2010). 2: Wood in the collapsing remnants of Canadian Arctic ice shelves is several thousand years old, indicating the shelves have been continuously stable for that period of time. 3: Small ice caps in the Canadian Arctic are exposing land not exposed for several thousand years (can't seem to locate refs, if anyone has them feel free to comment or corrent me!). Polyak et al does detail some evidence for summer temperatures in the Arctic being notably warmer than mid-20th Century at some point in the early Holocene, but proxy evidence would indicate that the Arctic has not been this warm for at least about 3,000 years, possibly longer. Since there was a good reason for the Arctic to be relatively warm in the early-mid Holocene (orbital forcing), and given the rapid trajectory of warming we are presently observing, it does not make good news, and we'll soon see the mid-Holocene in the rearview mirror too unless we can change Earth's energy balance.
  44. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Note: This will be my last post on this conversation, as it is both off-topic and, in my opinion, settled. Norman - The figures for groundwater depletion definitely have uncertainties. I have seen figures from 0.15 to 0.8mm/year, although the 0.8 you point to is, again, on the upper border. Where you are seriously distorting the data is in not recognizing or incorporating other factors, such as reservoir impoundment, or as Tom Curtis has shown, groundwater replenishment. I'll leave the replenishment portion to Tom Curtis, who has shown a great deal of the data. On impoundment, Church et al 2001 estimate a net water usage contribution of -1.1 to 0.4 mm/yr contribution, with impoundment ~-0.3 (Table 11.8), and Chao et al 2008 show an average rate of impoundment of -0.55 mm/yr. Groundwater mining, on the other hand, has been estimated at 0.2-0.3mm/yr (Vemeer & Rahmstorf 2009) - just about equal to impoundment. So yes, you are cherry-picking, not presenting all of the data. You only once mentioned increases in impoundment, dismissing it offhandedly (when it is of equal scale, and opposite in sign), and have only presented groundwater mining without replenishment. And what's worse, you continue not to recognize your cherry-picking. I no longer have any expectation that you will.
  45. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    KR @58 "Norman, you continue to present just one side of the picture - and hence you are distorting it." Are you certain of this. You use this one source which uses a super low figure for water depletion that no one else seems to agree with (you can check my previous links on this if you so choose). I am not using one data point (Ogallala aquifier) to make a point. In the links I have posted, they all deal with estimates of global water depletion from aquifiers. Your article would be correct if the water depletion was at the very low value of slightly more than 61 km^3 per year but I have listed more than one source that shows it to me much higher and they are including recharge rates. They have a medium condifence for Groundwater mining even though no other source I linked to is even close to this low level. That is why they do not find any change in SL from water mining. They are using the super low value of 0.25 SLR even though other experts in the field have this number much higher. For irrigation alone the figure was around 245 km^3. Wouldn't it be a "cherry pick" to use just one source of data as your refute of mine and then claim I am wrong, when your data source is considerably lower than other researchers in the same field?
  46. NASA Mission Takes Stock of Earth's Melting Land Ice
    Norman - Let's look at all the data. I'm using Milly 2010 as the reference, rather than the dozens of papers they reviewed. This is the data I pointed Norman to, the data from which he quoted but a single number for a particular, quickly depleting, aquifer. Primary among Norman's omissions is the expansion of reservoir filling - both direct containment and in the rise of local water tables around reservoirs. I invite everyone to view this summary - and compare it to Norman's cherry-picked presentation of just aquifer depletion, just one side of the equation. Groundwater adds to sea levels (as per your reference), but reservoir filling subtracts from it - and they appear to cancel out. Norman, you continue to present just one side of the picture - and hence you are distorting it. --- External constraints - Some uncertainties, for example the recent GRACE data indicates that ice cap contributions may be ~10% lower than previously thought. Table 8.1 Sea-level rise (mm/year) / 1961–2003a / 1993–2003b / 2003–7c 1. Observed / 1.8 ± 0.3 / 3.1 ± 0.4 / 2.5 ± 0.4 2. Thermal expansion / 0.4 ± 0.06 / 1.6 ± 0.25 / 0.35 ± 0.2 3. Glaciers / 0.5 ± 0.1 / 0.8 ± 0.11 / 1.1 ± 0.25 4. Ice sheets / 0.2 ± 0.2 / 0.4 ± 0.2 / 1. ± 0.15 5. Sum of 2 + 3 + 4 / 1.1 ± 0.25 / 2.8 ± 0.35 / 2.45 ± 0.35 Note that this leaves ~0.05mm/yr +/- 0.35 unaccounted for over the last eight years, including the GRACE data. There is very little room for water usage contributions! Now looking that the Milly summary of ground water contributions, excluding cryosphere contributions: Estimated potential contributions of changes in terrestrial water storage to sea-level change during the decade of the 1990s. Trends assigned “medium confidence” are probably of correct sign and order of magnitude. Trends assigned “low confidence” cannot be constrained by available data to be smaller than multiple tenths of a millimeter per year in magnitude, nor are data sufficient to be sure that any of these terms is large enough to be a factor in sea-level rise. “Essentially unidirectional” trends are those whose sign and order of magnitude are probably dominated by decadal and longer timescales, as opposed to interannual variations. Table 8.2 1990s sea-level trend (mm/year) / Essentially unidirectional? Medium confidence Reservoir filling: −0.25 yes Groundwater mining: +0.25 Yes Fifteen largest lakes: +0.1 No Climate-driven change of snow pack, soil water, and shallow groundwater: −0.1 No Atmospheric water storage: −0.05 Yes (under projected warming) Low confidence, but possibly substantial magnitude Irrigation: <0 Yes Dam-affected groundwater: <0 Yes Permafrost thaw and drainage: >0 Yes Lake-affected groundwater: ? No Wetland drainage: >0 Yes Deforestation, urbanization: ? No Low confidence, probably not substantial magnitude Post-glacial desiccation on millennial scale: >0 Yes
  47. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    Ok, thanks Dana.
  48. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    RE - the sun's magnetic field deflects cosmic rays, which hypothetically seed clouds. See the cosmic rays rebuttal.
  49. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change
    I wonder if this is what he meant... "This is why the sun's magnetic field has continued to weaken since 2000. As a result, this magnetic field doesn't shield us against cosmic radiation quite as well, which in turn leads to stronger cloud formation and, therefore, cooling." I think he means the Earth's magnetic field, right? (which has decreased in the past few years). How would the Sun's magnetic field protect us?
  50. It's methane
    16 - Heircide Have a look at the wedges

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