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nigelj at 07:09 AM on 15 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
Wow, this beaver thing really is a serious thing. I wonder if they could be introduced to the streams flowing out of the Himilaya mountains?
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michael sweet at 07:02 AM on 15 February 2020Earth is heating at a rate equivalent to five atomic bombs per second
RIP71749,
In general it is a waste of time to do your own calculations. You will be much better informed by reading more peer reviewed papers. Articles at SkS are a good place to start.
As for the melting of Greenland I saw a calculation once but cannot find it to cite. I get very different numbers than you.
First of all, you cannot use the Boltzman equation to calculate the energy absorbed so you are off at the start.
I will use 2, 850,000 km3 of ice which is the same as yours. I get 2.685E21 cm3 of ice. Times 330j/gm times 0.9g/cm3. That is 8E23 joules absorbed to melt the ice (ignoring the energy to increase the temperature) close to your number (did you account for the lower density of ice compared to water? please show your work).
You calculate the energy absorbed by using the energy imbalance of 3.7 W/m2 times the surface area of the Earth of 5.1E14m2 =2E15w times the number of seconds in a year (3E7) = 5.7 E22 joules per year absorbed. It would take about 10 years to melt all the ice in Greenland. If more CO2 is released the energy imbalance will increase and the speed of ice melt increases.
I might have a mistake since the calculation is not peer reviewed. I remember the calculation as showing the energy to melt Greenland was absorbed in a single year but it was a very long time ago and I probably remember it incorrectly.
This number can be GOOGLED if you look hard enough.
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william5331 at 06:22 AM on 15 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
With more water in the atmosphere causing heavier precipitation but ever reducing snow packs and glaciers to store this water until it is needed, we need a way to hold this water in the upper catchment and slowly release it. Add to this the precipitation coming more intermitently but more intensly, we also need a storage mechanism to mitigate down stream floods. There is a neat, inexpensive solution. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI5AjJd00cM
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rip71749 at 03:50 AM on 15 February 2020Earth is heating at a rate equivalent to five atomic bombs per second
Thank you MA Rodger. I have been trying to educate myself on CC over the past few years, pretty much working in a vacuum, on my own. I'm not quite clear on your energy balance from the 1oC increase in temp. Your 3.7Wm ^-2 seems reasonable as a new equilibrium loss to space of energy from the extra energy gained from the greenhouse effect. I view the CO2 levels as a savings account that pays out interest in heat (currently paying 1oC each year, but not carried over). Because we add an extra small amount of CO2 each year we get an extra 'small' amount of extra heat, that slowly accumulates over the decades, centuries etc (so maybe we will reach 2oC, 3oC or higher this century). Of course not all of that heat is from CO2, but its additional effects on ocean H2O (and possibly CH4 from warmer permafrost and peat). So the extra energy seems to me to be calculatable from the Stefen Boltzmann Law, as I did above. It seems to me the sun comes out every day and warms the earth according to the 'current' conditions of the earth and currently that is running 1oC warmer than recent centuries. The large energy value does not seem unreasonable given that the entire earth is warmed 1oC higher. As I understand it we are getting about (0.7)x(342 W/m^2) = 240 W/m^2 from the sun and the 3.7 W/m^2 you mention above is the new equilibrium value from the extra energy of the greenhouse effect. I am assuming that we are leaking more energy than recieved at any particular moment because some of the incoming energy is 'saved' in its warming effect from the greenhouse gases. I'm not sure why my delta = 6 W/m^2 value is not valid and my 200/1 ratio is not accurate. My calculation really does not say anything about how the 1oC increase came about, but the extra energy does seem correct (to me). A CC denier could claim that the extra energy was from Milankovitch cycles or sun spots ot cosmic rays or something else, but those seem to have been discounted from what I have read. To me, it seems the extra energy added from burning all the fossil fuels each year seems pretty trivial (the 200/1 ratio). The problem energy is the energy from the greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, CH4, etc) absorbing IR radiation and bouncing it around the atmosphere before it reaches equilibrium on its way out to space.
Also, I did do a calculation on how fast the Greenland ice could melt with temperature increases of earth of 1oC, 2oC and 3oC. I assumed there was 680,000 miles^3 of ice. I assumed it started at -1oC to calculate the energy to heat it 1oC (to compare with the energy to melt it all). The heat capacity of ice is about 2.1 joules/(gm oC) and I got a value of 5.8xx10^21 joules. Next, I caluated the energy to melt the ice using a heat of fusion of 334 joules/gram and came out with a value of 9.3x10^23 joules. Because melting is so much more energy I ignored any warming of the ice from lower temperature and only used the energy to melt the ice. I compared that with my energy calculated to warm the earth 1oC (1.0^23 joules), 2oC (1.9x10^23 joules) and 3oC (2.9x10^23 joules). I estimated that the area of Greenland was 1/280 the area of earth and used that to 'crudely' estimate the amount energy available to warm the ice in Greenland with those above energies from 1oC, 2oC and 3oC. My thinking is 9.3x10^23 joules to melt the GL ice divided by (1/280) of the extra energy from 1oC (or 2oC or 3oC) increase in energy. So I came out with 2600 years to melt GL ice with 1oC increase in temp, 1370 years to melt GL ice with 2oC increase and 900oC with 3oC increase in temp. I'm guessing that we will see at least a 3oC increase in temp (or higher, since we are not doing anything), so I went with the 3oC increase. Also, I have read that we are heating the Arctic 2-3 times faster than the rest of earth. If we assume a 24 foot sea level rise from the GL ice and simplistically plot out a straight line for 900 years we would see a 2.7 foot rise in sea level by 100 years, 2120 (or 2.1 foot rise in sea level by 2100). Those seem pretty conservative estimates because I did not consider any melt from the west Antarctic sheet or from pumped out ground water from around the world.
I am sorry for deluge of estimations, but this has been bottled up inside me for a few years, since I am working on my own, and I'm jumping at the chance that you can provide some feedback in case I am going off the tracks. This is the first time I have posted on Skeptical Scientist, but the 'atomic bomb' reference caught my attention since I had also used a Hiroshima atomic bome as an energy ruler. Also, I had read the Hiroshima abomic bomb was 12,000 tond TNT (called little boy) and the Nagasaki was 15,000 tons of TNT (called fat man), so that may be the difference in size of atomic bombs. The biggest US nuclear bomb was castle bravo at 130 Megatons in 1954. The Russian created the biggest nuclear bomb ever, the Tsar Bomba in 1961, at 50 Megatons (the heigth of the blast actually reached the edge of earth/space, over 211,000 feet). That's a whole other problem. Again, I thank you for the taking the time to provide feedback.
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SirCharles at 23:23 PM on 14 February 2020Climate goes extreme!
Global Temperature Jazz - Paris Climate Accord Into the Twenties
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Jonas at 11:20 AM on 14 February 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #6, 2020
As a small multiplicator, I am very grateful for the work of the SkS team:
thank you for Rebuttals, New Research, News Roundup, Posts, Material, ...
I donate regularly to support the site and I want to inspire other readers
to do the same if possible: we still need Sks a lot, unfortunately .. -
Eclectic at 10:25 AM on 14 February 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Tokenterprises @133 , It's worse than that.
Even the bubbles you absorb from your Coca-cola ;-)
(But isn't most synthetic fertilizer a nitrogen-based compound ~ though admittedly there's a huge amount of fossil fuel usage in the production.)
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MA Rodger at 10:21 AM on 14 February 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
tokenterprises @133,
While it is an interesting consideration that you make, is it not the case that the "majority of fertiliser", while manufactured from natural gas, does not inherit carbon from that natural gas? Thus the carbon in human respiration is not FF carbon. The hydrogen obtained from the natural gas is FF hydrogen but the FF carbon release is a by-product of the process. The argument thus rests on that the FF hydrogen requiring the FF carbon release (and this can be released as CO2 if the CO is used to extract further hydrogen from water) but that 'requirement' is also present for the burning of FF to power the tractor to plough and harvest the crop as well as to bring the crop to the factory to be processed, the powering of that processing, and so on....
I think your argument would stand up only if firstly there was direct use of FF carbon on the fields that ends up in the food consumed by us respiring humans, and secondly where that FF carbon ending up in the plant is not a direct substitute for atmospheric/soil carbon. Such conditions might hold less with fertilsers that contain carbon but with the CO2 used in greenhouse operations. ("The most common method of CO2 enrichment for greenhouse application is the combustion of fossil fuel.") Yet there is a further condition which would be met ony if this were the 'majority' situation, or at least some significant part of it. I would think it isn't a 'majority' situation but solely some small proportion of the planet's vegitable consumption. The area of greenhouse cultivation is 500,000 ha which, if it all used enhanced CO2, should be compared with the 1,600,000,000 ha of global croplands, just 0.03%.
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tokenterprises at 09:00 AM on 14 February 2020Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't human respiration contributing to the accumulation of CO2 per the simple fact that the majority of fertiliser used in commercial farming is derived from fossil fuel sources?
Annually, more than 200 million tonnes of synthetic fertilizer is used to produce plants consumed by humans. Granted, that carbon is accounted for in natural gas consumption statistics, and therefor can mathematically be cancecelled out if we declare human respiration as carbon neutral. That doesn't make human respiration technically carbon neutral, however. -
scaddenp at 07:12 AM on 14 February 2020Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
I have found Chris Colose's explanation very useful, particularly the last diagram on effective height.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:58 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
JoeZ @79,
I support Enviro's who push for 'reduction of energy consumption First - then the least harmful and most sustainable production of that reduced amount of energy'.
And I would add that it is undeniably harmfully foolish to believe that 'competition for perceptions of superiority relative to others any way that can be gotten away with' will produce better results than 'collaborative competitions to see who can be most helpful at developing solutions to sustainably improve the collective global future of humanity'.
History is full of proof that divisive individualism and the Negative-Sum Game Playing of Me Firstism only develops harmful failures that Collaborative Altruism (Internationalism pursuing things like Human Rights and the Sustainable Development Goals) has to correct and clean up after before it can make more Progress towards the required sustainable Improving future for humanity.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:45 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
In my comment @78, I was of course meaning Jeffrey D. Sachs. Automated assistance like Autocorrecting can be helpful, but I need to spend more time being sure it "corrected correctly".
In addition to the massive potential for 'non-intermittent' hydro-power generation in Canada to provide the energy used in Massachusetts, and other states in the region, there is substantial potential for off-shore wind energy generation in that region. And there is potential for non-intermittent tidal power from locations like the Bay of Fundy.
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JoeZ at 02:48 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
One Planet Forever #78
Here in Mass. the enviros don't want hydropower from Canada. I think it's a great idea. And, the enviros in NH and Maine also fought to stop it because of the need for new high tension lines. Regarding American Exceptionalism- it's now a powerful force- more than ever with Trump and he's likely to win again. Regarding economic growth- isn't it Nepal that has a "happiness index" instead of a GNP? In 77, Ecletic suggested sacrificing 10% of the landscape for wind and solar. Good theory. But the reality is most people don't want it next to their homes. As I always say- I've asked the enviros and legislators in this state if THEY want it next to THEIR homes. Never got a favorable reply. So, we need to understand that what's theoretical and what's the reality of what people will accept and be willing to pay for may not be the same. I suggest that when the media publishes scare stories and we see Greta Thunberg making demands on world leaders- that doesn't help the cause of having a carbon emissions free world.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:21 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
JoeZ,
Regions like Massachusetts can get all of their energy from Hydro-power in Canada, just north of them. There is a massive potential up there. And not promoting its development and buying it at a price that is beneficial to "Canadians" is the sort of harmful Negative -Sum Competitive behaviour that the likes of Trump pursue. Negative-Sum Game Playing is pursuits of perceptions of superiority relative to others that actually make everyone, including the perceived winner, worse off.
All that is required is for people to realize that Internationalism is the Future, not the unrealistic and incorrect beliefs in American Exceptionalism, Manifest Destiny and the related foolish attitude of America First Competing to Win Any Way That Can Be Gotten Away With in pursuit of a return to those beliefs about Increased Personal Wealth being Proof of the Providence of God, and any failure being blamed on Those Infidels.
A lot can be learned by reading the knowledge shared by people like Jeffrey D. Sacks. His most recent set of knowledge sharing, through the past decade, is quite comprehensive. He provides evidence-based understanding of what is going on. And all of it is built on the expanding awareness and understanding of Sustainable Development, developments that will provide lasting improvements for humanity.
The key is understanding the need to constantly achieve and improve on:
- Economic Growth - Measured as Improvement of life circumstances which is understood to not be measured by GDP. A more accurate indication is elimination of poverty.
- Social Inclusion - Understanding and accepting a robust diversity of ways of being human.
- Environmental Sustainability - The total actions of the entire global population being less than the understood sustainable planetary impact boundaries. Each nation doing what is best suited in their region.
Achieving what is required requires Good Governance, not limited government focused on building the military might to "be balanced with perceived military threats" or the more troubling belief that a nation's best future is achieved by being the "potentially most harmful pursuer of perceptions of superiority on the planet"
Expanded awareness and understanding directed towards helping develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity leads to the clear understanding of the need for collaborative altruism to govern and limit the powerful tendency for people to be divisively Individualistic and harmfully Tribal.
There is a high likelihood that many people who resist learning about and accepting the developing constantly improving understanding of climate science are motivated by a harmful developed personal interest. They resist understanding that they really should change their mind and give up undeserved perceptions of prosperity and opportunity.
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Eclectic at 01:39 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
JoeZ , the world is changing, and not just Massachusetts will see changes (some bad, maybe some good). And it's probably be too late to save the Maple Syrup industry, anyway.
Things will get worse for the southerly states, especially. I wouldn't like to see your own state forests altered ~ in tree species (or insect pests). Nor a few million climate refugees settling in Boston and the hinterlands.
Would you be prepared to sacrifice 10% of woodlands to PV panels and windmills, in order to save the rest from major alteration? Not an easy decision ~ particularly in view of the uncertainties. One thing's for sure: we can't just close our eyes and carry on with "business-as-usual".
We've dawdled too long . . . and now we need all hands to the pumps.
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JoeZ at 00:31 AM on 14 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
Eclectic @ 75. It's .1% now but the state will soon be passing a bill requiring the state to have no carbon emissions by 2050. Currently, solar only produces a few percent of the power grid so many more acres of forest will be converted. How many? I wish I knew. I keep asking the legislators, state agencies, and enviro groups but they don't reply. It's a fair question, right? A solar "farm" was built next to my neighborhood several years ago. That land has gone from forest, to fields, to gravel mine- but much of the mined ground had returned to forest without help from anyone- now turned into a solar "farm" on bare sand. Local zoning here did not requier soil restoration first. And so I'll be accused of being a NIMBY- but nah, I don't like them anywhere: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYYVZKgusU4&t=7s. I also ask if any legislators or enviro leaders would like a big, ugly solar "farm" next to their house- in this densely populated state- so far, no takers.
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Eclectic at 21:46 PM on 13 February 2020Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Unsure @388 , I will add in some extra food for thought.
The "greenhouse" planet-warming effect of the GHG [GreenHouse Gasses] molecules is not simply explained in a single sentence (or three). But once you get your head around how it works, you will see that it is a straightforward basic mechanism.
You will need to do some more of reading & thinking it through. Several points to keep in mind :-
(A) InfraRed photons are emitted in all directions by the CO2 molecules ~ when each molecule has enough energy to emit an IR photon. Emission rate depends on local air temperature.
(B) The energy (to produce an IR photon) for each CO2 molecule ~ is gained from collision with neighbouring "air" molecules (almost all of which are nitrogen and oxygen). Likewise, when a CO2 molecule receives/gains an IR-photon's worth of energy, the CO2 molecule immediately distributes energy to neighbouring "air" molecules, by collision. In other words, a CO2 molecule can warm the neighbouring nitrogens/oxygens when it receives an IR photon . . . or it can (by emitting an IR photon) cool its neighbouring nitrogens/oxygens.
(C) Each layer of air is receiving and radiating IR from/to the layers above and below . . . except for the uppermost layer, where the CO2 is so "thin" that some of the radiated IR photons can escape to outer space, through the "gaps" between the nearby CO2 molecules. (Lower layers with denser concentrations of CO2, in effect have "no gaps".)
(D) All of the above, also applies to IR emission/absorption by other GHG's e.g. methane, water vapor ~ but for each of these other compounds, the corresponding "uppermost thin layer" is at a different altitude (than CO2's "Top Of Atmosphere" emitting layer). O3 is rather a special case, being mostly in the stratosphere.
And I will stop at that point, since the consequence of all this is the higher heat concentration at the planet's surface i.e. the so-called (and poorly named) GreenHouse Effect.
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MA Rodger at 19:38 PM on 13 February 2020Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
unsure @388,
The essential characteristic of GHGs is that they do not absorb sunlight. They do absorb (and re-emit) the long wave infrared. With an increase in CO2, there isn't directly an increase in the 'intensity' of this long wave infrared, be that up, down or sideways. That is, there are more CO2 molecules emitting, but there are also more CO2 molecules absorbing. The extra absorption means the higher number of emitted infrared photons have a reduced pathlength. So at any point, the surface say, the infrared recieved is unchanged by simply adding CO2. Something else has to happen to increase the infrared 'intensity'.
What does cause this increase in infrared (up, down and sideways) is an increase in global temperature. The temperature rises because the extra CO2 increases the height in the atmosphere at which the CO2-emitted infrared has a clear shot at space. This means the CO2 molecules shooting out to space are in a higher colder part of the atmosphere. Cold gases emit less than warm gases, so to balance the global energy equation the planet has to warm, thus boosting the infrared emissions into space, from all sources, not just CO2. Note that because the temperature boost to infrared is across all sources and this is to balance the reduced infrared from CO2 alone, there will still be less CO2 emissions out into space when the balance is restored.
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Ger at 19:07 PM on 13 February 2020Why coal use must plummet this decade to keep global warming below 1.5C
How about reducing coal use in the cement and steel industry? For fuel, those are using 20% of the won coal. Cement is also producing CO2 from the lime used. Actual emissions of cement (and steel) are even higher as both do require good quality coal with high carbon content. Processing such coal at the mine will also give extra CO2 emissions.
For existing steel one could use hydrogen as reductor, but will lack coke gas to produce electricity in the mill. Existing cement could switch to biomass (rice husk etc) as fuel and feedstock amendment but still, CO2 output, though biogene. For the carbon budget, the source of the CO2 doesn't matter. So both industries should have CC(S)U. Reuse of carbon-dioxide in concrete hardening. Planting a lot of trees/biomass to fix the carbon budget in the shortest time possible.
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unsure at 18:52 PM on 13 February 2020Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
If greenhouse gases such as CO2 are absorbing the sun's radiation and emitting it as long wave infrared radiation as the post suggests, why would an increase in atmospheric CO2 translate to an increase in downward longwave emissions but a decrease in upwards longwave emissions attributed to CO2 as measured via Satelite? Again, as the post suggests, greenhouse gases absorb the sun's radiation and then these same gases emit that radiation in all directions (not favoring up or down). Wouldnt an increase in atmospheric CO2 (and O3, CH4) result in an increase in both upward and downward longwave emissions for their respective greenhouse gases?
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Eclectic at 08:34 AM on 13 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
JoeZ @74 , the USDA Forest Service states that the Massachusetts forest land comprises 3.0 million acres. Of which your figure of 3,000 acres would represent around 0.1%
. . . so I guess the real questions are ~ how much further is a planned expansion of solar farms going to go, and will any extra PV developments be done in an intelligent and considerate manner. And in tradeoffs (and drawing a long bow), what effect on the forests & timberlands of Massachusetts would come from a regional climate warming of around 4 degreesF over about 100 years? (We can reasonably assume 4*F would kill off the maple syrup industry. But what forest/tree-species changes ~ good or bad ~ would be likely to occur?)
Tradeoffs are a ripe area for argument !
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JoeZ at 07:23 AM on 13 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
Much better description of climate skeptics.
Now regarding "mass deforestation" - now we're my area of expertise. I've been a forester for 47 years. It's not just deforestation that is a problem but possibly even more so- really bad forestry pracitices which lower the health of the forest which reduces carbon sequestration. I suggest that the vast majority of "forestry" is abusive. I've been arguing FOR imporved forestry practices all that time with immense resistance. Also, in the name of producing "clean and green" energy- forests are being destroyed to install solar "farms". About 3,000 acres of forest in tiny Massachusetts, where I live, have been converted to solar "farms" in the past several years. Not only are the trees cut- but they need to bulldoze the site to level it for the panels. Doing so releases much of the soil carbon. And, let's remember that forests produce oxygen in addition to sequestering carbon. I think we all like oxygen. And, the forests produce ecosystem services. I'm not saying this shouldn't happen- but at least those promoting solar "farms" where there now are forests shouldn't pretend this conversion is totally "clean and green". An honest evaluation of the tradeoffs is necessary.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:53 AM on 13 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
Would it be better to say: "Climate 'skeptics' come in a diversity of forms including people who vigorously attack any evidence for man-made global warming and people who uncritically embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that supposedly refutes global warming."?
However it is stated: People resisting expanded awareness and improved understanding and its application to help develop sustainable improvements for the benefit of the future of humanity, including making rapid corrections to limit the harm done by harmful unsustainable but popular and profitable developments like the burning of fossil fuels and mass deforestation that are the major causes of human-induced global warming and the related climate changes - are a serious problem that humanity has to over-come, the sooner the better for the future of humanity (even if the corrections are a set-back for current day people who have harmfully over-developed perceptions of personal status - the Richest being Less Richest).
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JoeZ at 02:14 AM on 13 February 2020Welcome to Skeptical Science
"Climate 'skeptics' vigorously attack any evidence for man-made global warming yet uncritically embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that supposedly refutes global warming."
That's a bit severe. Other sciences don't have vast political implications as climate science does. Hence, little need for the general public to be concerned about the work of chemists and physicists. Many climate skeptics DO NOT "vigorously attack any evidence....". And many do NOT "uncritically embrace any argument....". So, describing all climate skeptics this way isn't helpful nor will it convince skeptics that non skeptics are playing fair. It's also the fact that not all skeptics are deniers which seems to be the belief of this blog. I find it also severe that this site implies all skeptics are fools and ignorant.
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Paul Pukite at 00:42 AM on 13 February 2020Murry Salby's Correlation Conundrum
There's a well-known physical argument for understanding why the airborne fraction of CO2 hangs around 50% having to do with diffusional random walk. When CO2 enters the ocean, it can either diffuse downward or back upward. This is the nature of a pure random walk, with the likelihood of either direction being ~50%.
So as CO2 moves so slowly to sequestering sites, when it randomly walks back upwards it has a chance to get released back to the atmosphere.
Incidentally, this diffusional process explains why the sequestering of CO2 has such a fat-tail for an adjustment time, running to thousands of years. Again this is well known diffusional physics and I can provide a citation on request.
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MA Rodger at 23:12 PM on 12 February 2020Earth is heating at a rate equivalent to five atomic bombs per second
rip71749 @16,
Your arithmetic look fine although the numbers you input are not those I would use.
While the yield of the Hiroshima bomb is not known with any certainty, the usual figure bandied about is a little higher than the figure you use at 6.3e13 J.
Conversely, your calculation of FF energy production is well done given the approximations you run with. Using BP's FF energy use for 2018, it works out at 4.92e20 J for the year.
I'm not sure of the value of your 200:1 ratio. Your sixty-two bombs-per-second is calculated using, not the global energy imbalance or the climate forcing, but the extra IR emissions up from the surface resulting from a +1ºC temperature rise. We do see such a rise but it results from many years of FF burning. If calculated for +1ºC at the top of the atmosphere, the well-known 3.7Wm^-2 value would appear rather than the 6Wm^-2 for the higher surface temperatures. The surface value is not a net value, of course, as there is an equally large increase in the back-radiation coming down from the atmosphere which has also heated by +1ºC. The five bombs per second of the OP is calculated using the global energy imbalance, a far smaller quantity.
Perhaps more meaningful than the 200:1, an interesting calculation is the time required for the climate forcing from the resulting GHGs to trap an equivalent amount of energy as produced from the FF burning. Assuming those 2018 emissions were responsible for a 2.25ppm CO2 increase (mind if there had been no emissions through the year, the level of atmospheric CO2 would have dropped, so the 'responsible' level is entirely academic), the forcing would be some 0.03Wm^-2, globally 1.5e13 W. Thus the forcing would accumulate energy globally equal to the annual FF power generated every 385 days.
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SirCharles at 23:01 PM on 12 February 2020Why coal use must plummet this decade to keep global warming below 1.5C
The Minerals Council of Australia and fossil fuel lobby groups have been undermining political action on climate change for decades. It’s time to end their stranglehold on our politics.Rio Tinto, as a leading member of the Minerals Council of Australia to cancel their membership and stop paying them to undermine action on the climate crisis. Tell them:
https://act.350.org/sign/ask-rio-tinto-leave-minerals-council-australia/
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Eclectic at 17:20 PM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
Rose @18 , I understand how you feel Andrew Bolt [Australian far-right-wing columnist and radio "shock jock"] qualifies for inclusion in the list of journalist science-deniers.
And you are correct that he is a "piece of work" as a virulent & self-satisfied science-denier . . . as well as being generally nasty-minded (especially re Ms Thunberg).
But myself, I would vote against placing him on the list. Really, he is a "lightweight" ~ a nonentity at the international level. Basically he is just a loud-mouth fish in a small pond. Small beer.
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Rose at 16:16 PM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
Thank you for your excellent post explaining the basis for your collection of climate -denier statements. You offer a wonderful service with such accurate refutations of the myths that somehow never go away. When you have some time on your hands (???) please add Andrew Bolt to your list of journalist deniers. He is a serial offender in the worst way and not only denies science but attacks those who champion action on global warming. His nasty criticisms of Greta Thunberg are a case in point. Keep up the good work.
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Rob Honeycutt at 15:42 PM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
It's interesting how, through this whole thing, neither Pielke nor Curry addressed any substantive errors presented in any of the SkS articles.
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Ntabenende at 14:42 PM on 12 February 2020New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
The Holistic Management debate continues. In the late seventies a large ranch in southern Matabeleland had adopted HRM and ran more and more cattle as the seasons were favourable. Then in 1982, 1983 and 1984 there were three consecutive droughts and the herd was decimated from approximately 120 000 head to 30 000 head. A US trained doctor of rangeland science employed in Govt. told me that the HRM on Liebigs Ranch, Towla had completely collapsed and was a complete failure and disaster. By then the “HRM Driver” had gone off to the USA to go again. Similarly it is reported that the HRM trial at Charter was carried out in a season when there was a 75% above average rainfall season. The suggestion that bare dirt can have its sticking rate quadrupled is an interesting evangelical environmental claim? What do the cattle eat on Day 1 of HRM? 90 000 HRM cattle were sent off property at a loss rather than perish and now we read of the suggestion to quadruple the stocking rate - again? Sceptical Science has to be the best forum for HRM because SS digs deep. Reading the HRM book could be as useful as believing the election results in Zimbabwe. The book does not mention the failure at Liebigs was on a 1 000 000 acre ranch and the general manager was fired after this exercise. Now the property is a wild life conservancy - there are no cattle and it looks beautiful.
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rip71749 at 13:42 PM on 12 February 2020Earth is heating at a rate equivalent to five atomic bombs per second
I use the Hiroshima atomic bomb (HB) analogy as an energy ruler when talking about climate change energies. The energy in the HB is listed as 12,000 tons of TNT (trinitrotoluene) and 1 ton of TNT is listed as 4.2 gigajoules (4,200,000,000 tons = billions). That works out to 5x10^13 joules = 50,000,000,000,000 joules (trillions). The difference in the HB and climate energy is intensity. Assume the HB energy is released in 1 second. That is enough energy to level a 6 mile^2 area. In Hiroshima 140,000 people died and in Nagasaki 80,000 people died (about half by radiation poisoning), which shows the deadly result of intense energy. Climate change energy is larger but not usually so intense, released over decades, centuries, mellinia, etc.
Assume 40 Gigaton of CO2 released in 1 year = 8x10^14 moles of CO2. Use octane, C8H18, as a proxy for all fossil fuels then 1x10^8 moles of octane were burned (Hcomb = 5,000,000 joules/mole). That works out to 5x10^20 joules released in 1 year of fossil fuel burning (500,000.000.000.000.000.000 joules = 500 quintillion). Divide 5x10^20 joules/year FF combustion by 5x10^13 joules/bombs/year = 10,000,000 bombs/year FF combustion. If there are 32,000,000 seconds/year then that energy = 1 HB every 3 seconds.
Next use the Stefen-Boltzmaann Law to calculate the energy if earth's temperature is 288K. Energy = (5.7x10-8 W/(m^2 T^4))xT^4 which is 392 W/m^2. Do the same for T = 289oC (1oC increase in earth's temperature) and I get 398 W/m^2. That is a difference of 6 W/m^2. I calculate about 5.2x10^14 m^2 as the area of earth and 3.2x10^7 seconds in a year for a total increase in energy for 1oC for the earth in one year of 1x10^23 joules (100,000.000.000.000.000.000.000 joules = 100 sextillion joules). Compare that to all of the energy of all fossil fuel combustion in 1 year = 1x10^23 joules / 5x10^20 joules = 200/1 ratio. Instead of 1 HB every 3 seconds it comes out to 62 HB every second for the extra energy from 1oC increase in earth's temperature. Look at it another way. If you eat 2,000 calories a day, you would have to up your calorie intake to 200 x 2,000 = 400,000 calories a day (every day). Pretty intense eating. If you do the calculation for 2oC increase, it comes out to a 370/1 ratio (116 HB per second) and a 3oC increase comes out to 580/1 increase in energy (181 HB per second). Also, you'd have to eat the equivalent of over 1,000,000 calories /day for a 3oC increase in energy. Some different ways of looking at the energy of climate change. Hope my calculations are correct.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:59 AM on 12 February 2020Murry Salby's Correlation Conundrum
Max:
You've been through all this over at AndThenTheresPhysics:
You are just as wrong here as you were there.
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Max Polo at 08:13 AM on 12 February 2020Murry Salby's Correlation Conundrum
I think that Dikran Marsupial's mass balance argument is fundamentally flawed. Here is why, based on his mass conservation equation referred to a certain period of time.
dC = Ea + En - Un
dC = increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over a certain period of time
Ea = total human emission in the atmosphere over that period
En = total natural emission in the atmosphere over that period
Un = total CO2 absorbed by natural sinks over that period
But we must not forget that Un is the total natural sinks uptake, that obviously must account for both "natural" and "human" contributions :
Un = Unn + Una
Unn = “natural” carbon that would get absorbed by natural sinks in absence of human emissions (over that period)
Una = portion of human emitted CO2 that gets absorbed by natural sinks (over that period)
Thus :
dC = Ea + En - Unn - UnaBy definition, the variation of CO2 concentration due to just the net “natural” carbon flux is :
dCn = En - Unnso, rearranging earlier equation :
dCn = dC - Ea + UnaSince dC is measured to be approximately one half Ea, then this equation shows how nature can be a net emitter (dCn > 0) if the portion of Ea that gets absorbed (= Una) exceeds (approximately) 50% of the total human produced carbon Ea.
Therefore, the mass balance argument in Cawley’s paper, in this website, and other websites as well, is wrong, and does not prove anything.
Moderator Response:[DB] As has been noted, you've already been through this with other learned individuals who pointed you straight.
It's one thing in life to of necessity to occasionally reinvent the wheel.
There's no need to reinvent the flat tire.
Continuing to tilt against the iron windmill of science with a wet paper lance is sloganeering and in violation of this site's Comments Policy. Please familiarize yourself with it and construct any future comments here to adhere to it. And above all else, when given good advice such as reading technical material to gain a background understanding of a matter, please avail yourself of the opportunity.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:43 AM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
NoctambulantJoycean: "This reminds me of the debates on "free speech" vs. "freeze peach"..."
Often found running in company with "freedumb," wherein freedom to speak and worship without interference from the state is confused with freedom to dump sewage just out of sight, where it becomes a problem for somebody else.
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dana1981 at 05:20 AM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
NoctambulantJoycean @11 - indeed, at one point Pielke described me as "some blogger without a PhD & never having worked in a university". The only accurate part of that description is 'without a PhD' (I have a Master's degree). I'm an environmental scientist and climate journalist, and I worked for many years at UC Davis prior to graduating, including doing cosmology and astrochemistry research. But I'm not going to get in a pissing contest with Roger. Whose PhD is in political science, for the record.
There was another Tweet in which he belittled the whole SkS team in a rather inaccurate way, but I didn't find it in a quick search.
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dana1981 at 05:05 AM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
sailrick @ 8: while one would hope that would be a typo, it's not. It's a quote from Judith Curry using a double-negative to suggest global warming had stopped.
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william5331 at 04:50 AM on 12 February 2020Why coal use must plummet this decade to keep global warming below 1.5C
Coal doesn't have a chance. The only question is whether or not it will decline in time. With new solar and wind generation coming in cheeper than new coal generation the writing is on the wall. The only remaining question was how do we store the energy to use it when it is needed. The mega battery in Aus has answered that problem. It is on track to return almost a third of it's capital cost in revenue in the first year of operation. Economics is vastly more powerful than all of our articles and demonstrations. What CEO would have the stupidity to advocate the installation of a coal powered power generation station now. In fact in some places, it is less expensive to install wind and solar than to continue to use old coal power stations.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:14 AM on 12 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
ajki... There is a very long list of tasks that those with coding skills have to do to keep up this site. I believe this one has been on the list for a long time but it's been a lower priority. Being that we were previously hacked there's a lot of effort that goes into ensuring that can't happen again.
Roger is an interesting case on a lot of levels. He definitely agrees with all the existing science. He believes we need to be cutting emissions much faster than we currently are. But, he seems to continually present materials that minimizes climate impacts.
An example was a piece he did in a short stint he had work with the political website 538, where he claimed there was no correlation between climate and severe storm damage, kind of implying "so, what are we worried about?"
Lots of people hit the roof over that and eventually 538 asked leading expert Kerry Emanual to write up a piece explaining how Roger got it wrong.
My point here is, he hasn't changed since 2013. If anything he's only become more angry. Similar with Judith Curry.
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SirCharles at 00:08 AM on 12 February 2020Why coal use must plummet this decade to keep global warming below 1.5C
Australia is world's biggest exporter of coal. The country is just preparing a new mammoth project.
Take action! Stop Adani’s Carmichael coal and rail project!
=> https://www.marketforces.org.au/info/key-issues/theadanilist/
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MA Rodger at 00:00 AM on 12 February 2020CO2 effect is saturated
dlen @582,
The difficulty I have with this discussion is that it is attempting to provide an analogy for the GHG mechanism, something which can never be exact because if it were, it would be too complex when its puropse is to be simple to understand.
You say "So the heat energy has to propagate via multiple absorptions to the top layer" with CO2 acting to "hamper this propagation process."
This is not the best of wording. It is true that the planet sheds energy solely by radiation, something like 240Wm^-2 to be in equilibrium. Yet within the planet's energy flows, very little of this outward energy is 'propagated' from the net radiative energy flux from the surface. The surface is only radiating a net 60Wm^-2, of which 40Wm^-2 is the radiation passing through the "the transmission window" (so plays no part in the GHG mechanism) leaving just 20Wm^-2 which "has to propagate via multiple absorptions to the top layer." Joining this surface radiative energy flux as it 'propagates' upward is 100Wm^-2 of convective and insensible heat transport from the surface as well as 80Wm^-2 from direct solar heating of the atmosphere to yield the full 200Wm^-2 being radiated from the atmosphere out into space. And in being able to radiate at atmospheric temperatures, CO2 does not "hamper" the process but instead assists it.Your fouth-last paragraph is entirely wrong. It is not the CO2 which warms the atmosphere (ie the troposphere) and determines its temperature profile. The temperature profile (lapse rate) is well balanced so as to hold convection back from running amok. (We would live in an interesting surface environment without this balance!!) The temperature profile (as opposed to the temperature) is certainly not determined by radiation.
The planet surface and atmosphere does of course have to warm because an increase in CO2 results in it emitting into space from higher cooler parts of the atmosphere. While CO2 is well mixed up to perhaps 50km, the effective emission altitude for CO2 is nothing like that high - more like 10km. And while the whole climate system (up to the tropopause) will warm as a result of increased CO2 to allow the radiative balance to be restored, the flux within the CO2 waveband will still remain smaller than previously, while the flux elsewhere (where the effective emission altitude remains unaffected) will be greater.
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ajki at 20:17 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
#1: "... section ... looks very out of date ..."
#1 has a point in that regard. It is true that a voluntary (free-time) approach can't keep the data up to date - but it appears to be an abandoned section.
I've noticed this myself recently in a kind of "discussion" where a "pro nuclear" guy defended Mr. Pielke, Jr., against any sort of dis-/misinformation regarding "Climate Change". When I cited some items of the Pielke, Jr., section I noticed that everything there was dated far back. That itself isn't problematic - what has been said should be noted. But the question is if (e.g.) Mr. Pielke, Jr., did something in the mean time, what Nuccitelli/Cook said above could be done by someone who made erroneous claims in the past: s/he could have corrected her-/himself in the time since then. This may be unlikely or even absurd, but it can happen.
So, when all db entries stopped after about 2013, how could I know if (e.g.) Mr. Pielke, Jr., distanced himself from public claims he made in the past? (In a way I can answer that myself: on SkS I would use the "search" for all contents regarding R. Pielke, Jr., and that way I could see more recent blog posts where the name is found - but blog posts on SkS don't have the scope of watching "denialists" correcting their false claims und so there may be no such posts)
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NoctambulantJoycean at 19:06 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
Thanks for the compliment, Eclectic. I forgot to mention something else.
Roger Pielke Jr. and Judith Curry also used another tactic: saying that SkepticalScience's writers have worse academic qualifications/credentials that the people they were criticizing. To that end, Curry wrote the following to Pielke Jr. about one of the misinformers SkepticalScience criticized:
"It gets better . . . Kary Mullis is a Nobel Laureate
https://skepticalscience.com/misinformers.php "
[ https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1226225080092413952 ]For those of you who don't know: before he passed away, Kary Mullis was one of the best-known AIDS denialists, in addition to his spreading misinformation on climate science. Feel free to look up his views other topics as well.
Curry mentioned Mullis in order to criticize SkepticalScience, but she inadvertently illustrated my point from my previous post: SkepticalScience justifiably debunks the views of misinformers, even misinformers who may have some credentials. In that respect, it's like other science communication groups that debunk AIDS denialists, young Earth creationists, anti-vaxxers / vaccine denialists, etc. I suspect David Gorski, Paul Offit, and Peter Hadfield would be proud.
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Eclectic at 17:26 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
Thanks, NoctambulantJ @9 ,
it's always a pleasure to read your well-researched "broadsides" , whatever the forum. Long may HMS Atomsk keep firing !
Master "Junior" is certainly in full whine, at present. And one of his routine echo-chambers is recently re-cycling the Pause ~ in the form of "No sea level rise for 2 years". Marvellous !
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NoctambulantJoycean at 16:38 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
FYI, Roger Pielke Jr. misrepresents your post below:
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1226987527468240896This reminds me of the debates on "free speech" vs. "freeze peach", where various conservatives would act as if free speech / academic freedom entailed:
- freedom from criticism (including harsh criticism),
- no consequences for what one says,
- the ability to say whatever nonsense they wanted in any forum and under the employment of any institution,
etc.Of course, freedom of speech entails none of that.
And by the flawed logic Judith Curry and Roger Pielke Jr. have been recently using, it's bullying when:
- virologists make websites correcting Peter Duesberg's distortions,
- doctors make websites correcting Andrew Wakefield's distortions,
- biologists + astronomers make websites correcting Duane Gish's distortionsThese aren't just hypotheticals; they actually happened, and I've pointed them out to Pielke Jr. He, unsurprisingly, has no cogent response. For instance, the great website TalkOrigins has a list of creationists, and numerous pages debunking creationists' claims, including creationists with science degrees:
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/credentials.html
http://www.talkorigins.org/indexcc/By Pielke Jr.'s implausible logic, that makes TalkOrigins a malicious attempt to blacklist scientists, make them unhirable, chill academic freedom, and make TalkOrigins "arbiters of all science". That makes no sense; that's not the point of TalkOrigins. TalkOrigins is meant to correct creationist distortions for the purpose of educating the public.
It might turn out that a young Earth creationist is unable to get hired to teach biology or astronomy, because prospective employers see the creationist's publicly-stated position being debunked on TalkOrigins. But that's fine, since one should be held accountable for what one says, when what one says is relevant to the position one is applying for. That's compatible with freedom of speech. Parallel point for people being unhirable based on their position being debunked on SkepticalScience, and their being listed on SkepticalScience misinformer's pages.
And in case folks want another example: AIDSTruth + others have lists of AIDS denialists, and numerous pages debunking AIDS denialists' claims, including AIDS denialists with science/medical degrees. Is Pielke Jr. going to object to that to? Does he really not understand the important role websites like AIDSTruth, TalkOrigins, and SkepticalScience play in correcting denialist misinformation/disinformation?:
https://www.aidstruth.org/new/denialism/denialists/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1949841/
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2015.00193/full -
sailrick at 15:18 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
John Cook
There seems to be a typo here - "no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped"
I think you ment has stopped -
jgnfld2 at 15:15 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
@3
"an accurate quote ... removed from the context of what he's saying" is merely Propagada 101. All the best deniers use that technique constantly. In particular, McKittrick uses that method almost exclusively and thinks he's fooling people. He may be right in a few cases.
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Eclectic at 15:06 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
BillWalker @5 ,
there's likely some simple explanation for Watts and Morano being missing from the list.
Probably they've exceeded their quota for falsehoods & disinformation . . . and the counter needs a manual reset.
We could ask the Washington Post to keep tab on them ~ but I suspect the WaPo is much too busy keeping a tab on Someone Else's falsehoods [currently showing over 15,000]. How does the WaPo keep up?! ;-)
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BillWalker at 14:33 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
I hadn't seen the "Misinformation by Source" page before. Nice! I'm surprised to find Anthony Watts and Marc Morano missing from the list, though.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:39 PM on 11 February 2020On climate misinformation and accountability
Welp... I should have finished reading your entire comment before I commented. :-)
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