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Stephen Baines at 11:40 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
115 @Tom Curtis Thanks for the link! Exactly what I was asking for. That matches my memory pretty well. I wonder if there would be a way to turn that info into a nice graphic. 119 @ RW1 "Science advances primarily through falsification and paradigm shifts. So-called 'consensus' has nothing to do with science." And what happens when scientific propositions survive attempts to falsify them? You get consensus. Without it you cannot have establish settled scientific propositions upon which to build future work and science essentially stops. I'm not sure how you can say consensus has no role in science. The fact is there used to be plenty of scientists skeptical about the proposition that the earth was warming and that humans were responsible. They have slowly been convinced by the evidence over time. Only a few diehards still remain concerning those two central issues. -
Eric (skeptic) at 11:35 AM on 13 May 2011CO2 has a short residence time
drrocket, the IPCC diagram that we both linked above is misleading and I should have said so instead of saying the red arrows are the "new" or ACO2. Going from the atmosphere to the ocean there 22.2 red down and 20 red up. And there is 70 black down, 70.6 black up. Those ratios cannot be different since the ocean is nonpreferential. Nor are those arrows equal ratios of the reservoirs, not that it matters. The simplest explanation of the red down and up arrows is that they wanted to show some amount of CO2 exchange but wanted the net exchange to equal 2.2 down or about 1/3 of the 6.4 from fossil fuels. Net red transfer cannot possibly differ from net black transfer, but they ignored that fact and made it different. Other than that correction, my closing remark above still stands. I didn't justify it, but other people in the thread did. It is not shilling for this site, but my own conclusion from a few facts. One fact is that the 6.4 GtC/yr released by fossil fuels and cement is an accurate estimate. The second fact is that the year to year increase in the atmosphere is about 1.9 ppm measured at numerous locations. The first fact means that the atmosphere should rise by about 3.6 ppm. The second fact means that the ocean and biosphere is absorbing some of that 3.6 so we only see 1.9 remain in the atmosphere on a yearly basis. -
Victor at 11:29 AM on 13 May 2011Models are unreliable
Here some new stuff about climate models. According a paper from J.Hansen, M.Sato and P.Kharecha most IPCC models and GISS modelE-R mix heat too efficiëntly downward through the oceans. The result is that models respond slower on forcings as the real world does. On page 18 in Hansen et al 2011 I read "Below we argue that the real world response function is faster than that of modelE-R. We also suggest that most global climate models are similarly too sluggish in their response to a climate forcing and that this has important implications for anticipated climate change." Adjustments towards less ocean heat uptake are in better agreement with observed OCH trends. Despite the slow response IPCC models do a good job in mimicing global warming. The IPCC underestimates aërosol cooling effects and some models have too large GHG forcings according Hansen. Since the oceans are NOT the favourable place for large antropogenic aërosol influences the answer may be quite more simple: Climate models are too sensitive to GHG (and other forcings) and thus OVERestimate AGW. You can read more about this in chapter 5 t/m 7 of the paper.(Excuse me if this subject is discussed before). -
Bob Lacatena at 11:04 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
86, Victor,Internal variability as a change in heat distribution around the globe also implies effects on snowcover, clouds en water vapour.
The forcing must be maintained. Clouds, water vapor, and even snow cover all react to temperature as well as affecting them. Without a continuous forcing, each of those feedbacks will drop back down....no other forcings exists?
Beyond those we know of, no. Of course, there's a crowd of people trying to come up with new ones (GCR, for example), but so far these are only unproven theories, and to date evidence contradicts rather than supports these theories.Don't forget that these feedbacks, like changing ice-albedo and watervapour, disturb earth radiation budget as well and thus act like forcings.
True, but as already stated, they respond to temperature, as well as affecting temperature. Without a non-temperature influenced, continuous forcing, they will eventually swing back (and generally fairly quickly, based on the climate's known reactions to volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiance). The factors that are long lived enough to swing the climate are few:- Anthropogenic CO2 (non-anthro, in almost all of the rest of history, has been a very powerful, long lived feedback, rather than a forcing)
- Changes in solar radiance
- Changes in insolation due to orbital changes
- Changes in insolation due to aerosols from dramatic and constant volcanic activity
Satellite measurements of reduced cloudiness (ERBE, ISCCP-clouds) implies that such internal forcings do exist.
I don't know what this means. Can you clarify? -
Bern at 10:59 AM on 13 May 2011Book reviews of Climate Change Denial
mclamb6: you're absolutely right, it's not difficult to see which is which. That's why I come to sites like this one, or Real Climate, or Tamino's Open Mind, or many others (there's a great listing of links in the right column on Real Climate, for example). They're always eager to discuss the latest developments in the science, and many of them do it in a surprisingly accessible fashion for the non-climate scientists like myself. The Ville: The podcast will be available at The Science Show's website. It's a great radio program, I've been listening to it for many years (although I have to say I'm well behind in listening to the podcasts). It's also available on iTunes. -
RW1 at 10:58 AM on 13 May 2011Could global warming be caused by natural cycles?
Robert S (RE: 193), "No, it can't. I think you're confused as to what a trend represents -- it's the average slope, not the temperature [anomaly] at a point in time." No, I fully understand the what a trend represents. I've never not understood what a trend represents. Yes, a trend does not represent a temperature anomaly at a point in time. I fail to see how this in anyway contradicts anything I've said. "If that were the criteria we would never be able to discern a trend in any observational series. I'd feel a whole lot better about my stock portfolio over the past 4 years." We are talking about natural variability here, not whether or not there is trend. The point is when the trend amount is less than or equal to the observed short term variations over the whole of the trend, it can't really be distinguished from random natural variability. Contrast this with a trend of 3 C over 30 years. This is much more likely to be outside the range of natural variability since the trend amount is so much greater than the short term, random variability.Moderator Response: You have been told before that it is not legitimate to offhandedly dismiss a trend merely because the noise seems large. There are rock solid statistical methods for computing probability of the trend over a given amount of time, given the particular noise level. -
Bob Lacatena at 10:51 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
120, apiratelooksat50, Sorry about your Achilles. That's got a long recovery time, but I know a few people who have done it, and they were all fine (eventually). Prove/Disprove: 1) Bigfoot- Prove: Find physical evidence, such as a carcass, skeleton, DNA, or live specimen
- Disprove: can't ever be done (unless maybe you can program an army of surveillance robots capable of scouring the entire northwestern part of the continent, leaving no stone unturned).
- Prove: This is a case where real science comes in, because one can rarely ever "prove" anything, and even when you do, that "proof" is founded on other "proven" hypotheses, so if one of them is overturned, everything else collapses as well. But after a while, a compilation of confirming evidence and a paucity of contradictory evidence strengthens the case to the point where one no longer feels that "proof" is needed.
- Disprove: First you need an alternative hypothesis, whether it be a variation on or complete refutation of evolution. Then you need a compelling body of evidence supporting that hypothesis and unambiguously contradicting that of evolution. As an example, Intelligent Design will never be proven or disproven, unless God comes down and interrupts a science lecture at MIT to assume the role of guest speaker.
- Prove: We already have substantial evidence, but this can no more be "proven" than one can "prove" evolution. It's better to speak in terms of "confidence" than "proof."
- Disprove: The answer is the same as with evolution: a feasible hypothesis with supporting (but unambiguous) evidence.
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Bob Lacatena at 10:35 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
119, RW1, You have it upside-down. We don't have a consensus because we need proof, we have a consensus because we have proof. There is also a consensus on lung cancer, ozone and CFCs, the right ways to construct buildings, fly planes, prepare food, etc. The only reason we don't discuss the consensus on those issues is because there aren't masses of people who have been fooled into thinking there's actually any question in those matters. The only reason we do discuss the consensus behind climate change is because of the number of people who so adamantly refuse to look at, understand, and accept the science that proves the facts behind climate change. -
apiratelooksat50 at 10:20 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
This question may not be that well thought out, but I am asking mercy. I ruptured my Achilles tendon and recently had surgery and the Lortab sometimes REALLY has an effect. Let's take 3 situations: AGW, evolution, and the existence of Bigfoot. I believe in AGW (to a limited effect). Definitely believe in evolution. And, I think the existence of Bigfoot MIGHT be a possibility. All have multiple lines of evidence and the first 2 have scientific consensus. All are currently a theory or maybe hypothesis. What would it take to prove or disprove any of the 3? -
RW1 at 10:15 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
This is utter nonsense. Science advances primarily through falsification and paradigm shifts. So-called 'consensus' has nothing to do with science. 'Consensus' is pure propaganda. The bottom line is you don't use consensus if you have proof. -
Harry Seaward at 10:07 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Albatross @ 100 You are so intent on making your point that you are not reading what I posted. I knew you had your list waiting and to clarify my response to that let me state the following: "the organizations may be endorsing their support of catastrophic AGW, but there are individuals within those organizations who do not." Your task was: "Please list for us all the professional scientific societies of the same standing as the American Meteorological Society (for example) who state that human emissions of GHGs are not contributing to global warming." I replied: "I don't know of any scientists period that would make that statment." You replied: "Bad news, I'm a scientist and I made that statement. But then again, you don't know me ;)" If you would slow down and read what is posted instead of anxiously waiting to cut and paste your trump card, you might finally understand that we really aren't that far apart. I've said it before and I will say it again - human activities do have impact on the global climate. We disagree on the level of impact, future ramifications, and current strategies to cope with those anticipated changes. -
Bob Lacatena at 10:00 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
111, JMurphy, Back in the 80s (in hang gliders in Chicago) I launched two ways, from the Indian Dunes by foot, or by tow off the back of a station wagon on an abandoned army air strip (basically, a long, straight dirt road through the fields). The dunes were low, so I could carry the glider the 100 feet up. The north wind coming in over a smooth-as-glass Lake Michigan, hitting the sand dunes that had been built over the millenia by that same wind, produced tremendous lift, especially in the natural "bowl" where we launched. Landing was actually a problem, because the lift was so strong in the bowl, but it was the only safe place to land. The shore line itself was too narrow, crowded with beach goers, and you were likely to drown if you ever had to try to come down there. Of course, it was over an hour and a half drive to the dunes from Chicago, with the glider on the roof. And launching at Lookout Mountain in Tennessee required an SUV to get up the mountain (after having driven 6-8 hours to get there). Basically, the hobby used a lot of fuel, even if the actual flying was "emissions free" (not counting the energy expended in constructing the high-tech glider to begin with, of course). -
Tom Curtis at 09:56 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud @87:"It is irrelevant how many scientists there are in total nor how many are "climate" scientists. It only takes one experiment by scientist or non-scientist to prove them all wrong. Consensus is not part of scientific method. Consensus is a political process."
Consensus does not make anything true, but it was (and is) a fundamental assumption of the enlightenment and of science (which grew out of it) that close examination of the evidence with an open mind will lead people to the same opinion. The will converge on truth. So, arriving at a consensus by negotiation is a political process; but arriving at a consensus by independently examining the evidence is the hallmark of science. It is a sign that the consensus theory accurately represents the available evidence, which in turn means any superior theory is not likely to be very different in its predictions. As can be seen from the evidence in my preceding post, the consensus on global warming was reached slowly and arduously. Slowly, one scientist after another has moved from rejection or agnosticism about the theory to endorsement, and what has moved them is the accumulation of evidence. You would be arrogant indeed to think that you no better without a full and detailed knowledge of the evidence; and any politician who bases their policy on the consensus being wrong is a fool. -
Victor at 09:53 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
I'm not convinced why Lindzen is 'wrong'. "Internal variability means that heat is just being moved around from one part of the Earth's climate system from another, i.e. in Lindzen's example, from the deep ocean layers to the surface." "Clearly this warming of the entire global climate system must be caused by an external forcing, and the radiative forcings over the past century have been dominated by greenhouse gases. " Why is an 'internal' forcing ruled out? Internal variability as a change in heat distribution around the globe also implies effects on snowcover, clouds en water vapour. This in turn changes the radiation balance and an internal forcing is born. There is obviously some long term warming trend due to increased GHG's but does this mean that, besides the known external forcings (solar cycle, aërosols), no other forcings exists? Climatologists widely believe that the initial forced GHG-warming will be amplified by a factor 2 to 4, the positieve feedbacks. Don't forget that these feedbacks, like changing ice-albedo and watervapour, disturb earth radiation budget as well and thus act like forcings. It seems to me rather odd that only and only temperature can change these parameters. Satellite measurements of reduced cloudiness (ERBE, ISCCP-clouds) implies that such internal forcings do exist. -
~Qt~ at 09:47 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
By the way, I love the Lindzen's Illusions button!!! -
~Qt~ at 09:42 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
I meant to include this link with my previous post: Dessler and Davis (2010) - full paper -
Tom Curtis at 09:41 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Stephen Baines @84:"What I would like to see someday is a historical perspective of how the level of consensus has changed over time."
Bray, 2010, "The scientific consensus of climate change revisited" draws on three surveys by Bray and Storch, the first in 1996 and the last in 2008, to answer your question. It turns out that: 1) In 1996, just over 60% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; just under 40% believed humans where responsible; and just under 60% believed the IPCC was an accurate reflection of the science. 2) In 2003, just over 80% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; around 55% believed humans were responsible; and around 75% believed the IPCC reports accurately reflected the science. 3) In 2008, around 95% of climate scientists believed the Earth was warming; just under 90% believed humans where responsible; and 80% believed the IPCC reports accurately reflected the science, or understated the risks. Based on Doran and Zimmerman, Bray indicates that the proportion of climate scientists believing humans where responsible for global warming had risen to around 95% by 2009. (All data from Figure 1 in the paper.) Robert Lichter (2008) also compares the results of a 1991 Gallup Poll of climate scientists to his 2007 Survey:"We repeated several of their questions verbatim, in order to measure changes in scientific opinion over time. On a variety of questions, opinion has consistently shifted toward increased belief in and concern about global warming. Among the changes: In 1991 only 60% of climate scientists believed that average global temperatures were up, compared to 97% today. In 1991 only a minority (41%) of climate scientists agreed that then-current scientific evidence “substantiates the occurrence of human-induced warming,” compared to three out of four (74%) today. The proportion of those who see at least a 50-50 chance that global temperatures will rise two degrees Celsius has increased from 47% to 56% since 1991. The proportion of scientists who have a great deal of confidence in our understanding of the human-induced sources of global climate change rose from 22% in 1991 to 29% in 2007. Similarly, the proportion voicing confidence in our understanding of the archeological climate evidence rose from 20% to 32%. Despite these expressions of uncertainty, however, the proportion which rating the chances at 50-50 or better that the role of human behavior will be settled in the near future rose from 47% in 1991 to 69% in 2007."
There is a clear pattern of a rising consensus as scientist by scientist is driven by the evidence to conclude that temperatures are rising, we are responsible, and it is dangerous. -
~Qt~ at 09:38 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
@ Climate Watcher 22 Paltridge et al. found that specific humidity in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis declined between 1973 and 2007. However, this reanalysis is incredibly biased and almost certainly inaccurate for several reasons. 1) Other reanalyses indicate that the long-term water vapor feedback is positive, as chris noted. 2)The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis was solely dependent on radiosonde humidity measurements to constrain upper tropospheric humidity. As you note, there are problems with these measurements. 3) While the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis showed that the long-term water vapor feedback is negative, it also indicated that the short-term feedback is positive. This makes very little physical sense. 4) Newer reanalyses include improvements that are designed to increase the fidelity of long-term trends. Thus, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is not as accurate as the newer reanalyses which indicate the existence of a positive feedback. -
Tom Curtis at 09:02 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
funglestrumpet @82, quoting Tyndale is all very well, but their are deniers who believe that the climate response for a doubling of CO2 is around 0.5 degrees C after feedbacks. Indeed, I recently came across one who claimed increasing CO2 reduces the temperature. There is no way that you will convince such deniers and their gratefully hoodwinked political allies that reducing CO2 emissions will be a cost effective means of combating rising global temperatures. This is particularly the case seeing the same people also tend to believe that the major drivers of increasing temperatures is natural, and is in the process of reversing, ie, entering a sustained cooling period. You certainly would not convince me, if I believed those falsehoods, to reduce CO2 emissions without first convincing me that those beliefs were false. That is because I am rational. Further, Stephen Baines @85 is entirely correct. This is my last comment on this topic which is OT on this thread. I recommend, however, that you become familiar with the arguments deniers actually present before you recommend how we can overcome their political effect. -
Tom Curtis at 08:49 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Albatross @100, I believe Harry Seaward was playing coy. Your statement was:"Please list for us all the professional scientific societies of the same standing as the American Meteorological Society (for example) who state that human emissions of GHGs are not contributing to global warming."
You would not agree with that statement, and neither would Lindzen or Christie (although I know of some scientists who would). I believe the question should be:"Please list for us all the professional scientific societies of the same standing as the American Meteorological Society (for example) who state that human emissions of GHGs are not the major contributing factor to global warming."
All of the scientific societies you listed endorse that human emissions of GHG is the major contributing factor, as of course, do you. -
KR at 08:48 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Tom Curtis, Rob, etc. - Take a look at the Sunseeker, a solar powered glider which crossed the US on solar power in August 1990. See also the Sunseeker II and other projects on that page, including the Sunship - a solar powered dirigible. -
JMurphy at 08:46 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Sphaerica wrote : "Except to do any gliding you need power to get the glider aloft (or for a hang glider something to lug you and the glider up to a launch point, and then go pick you up where ever you wind up landing)." The last time I went gliding, I was launched by a winch, which is like launching a kite. I suppose the winch still needs fuel for the motor but, apart from that, and presuming a landing back on the airfield where you start, the carbon footprint should be very small ! Best way to fly, unless you need to get somewhere... -
KR at 08:43 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Sphaerica - There's a lot going on in terms of electric airplanes, which can address at least small craft in the forseeable future. I believe there were several present at Sun-and-Fun this spring, and more to appear at Oshkosh. But battery recharge times limit distance traveled per day, which means even the best won't be replacements. For general and commercial aviation, however, we're more likely to end up with either biofuels or solar/wind generated (carbon neutral) liquid fuels. For example, there's a pretty serious effort by Swift Enterprises to certify their 100LL replacement (propeller driven planes), which is a biofuel, for FAA approved use. They're in testing now, and should have that cleared fairly soon - and it appears to be price competitive. I expect some kerosene/jet fuel replacements hitting the market in <5-10 years as well. -
Tom Curtis at 08:40 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Rob @104, I have always wondered about the viability of an electrically powered ducted fan based on a glider frame and with PV cells in the wings. Sphaerica, most air transport needs could be met with derigibles again propelled by ducted fans and powered from battery power with PV cells recharging the batteries during daylight hours. Granted it would take five days to cross the atlantic, but that is almost irrelevant for freight; and if you need a faster personal meeting, there is skype. -
Bob Lacatena at 08:17 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
106, Albatross, Except to do any gliding you need power to get the glider aloft (or for a hang glider something to lug you and the glider up to a launch point, and then go pick you up where ever you wind up landing). One of the big sins (I think) about how we're wasting fossil fuels today is that they're the only practical solution to powered flight. We're wasting it all puttering around to the corner store, when a hundred years from today people are going to regret all the things that can't be done because flying is so prohibitively expensive (because there's so little fuel left to meet the needs of aviation). -
Chris G at 08:15 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
@Dana 21, Just to connect some dots, that is the same link posted by dankd, whom I suspect is the same climate researcher who studied under Lindzen as a graduate student about the time that the 1993 discussion and unpublished AGU presentation were written. So, I suspect that Dan has a better understanding of what Lindzen's views are, or were, than anyone other than Lindzen himself. Which makes the AGU presentation, where he is the primary author and Lindzen the second, interesting. -
JMurphy at 08:15 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
In fact, the AAPG have decided that it would be best if they just didn't get involved in trying to work out where they stand : Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee ...as a group we have no particular claim to knowledge of global atmospheric geoophysics through either our education or our daily professional work. For our members who want to follow the climate change discussions there are numerous, easily accessed Web sites. If there’s a demand, and if it helps us to find hydrocarbons or characterize potential sequestration reservoirs, AAPG can host climate-related technical sessions at our meetings – but like our other sessions, they should be composed of presenters who are doing the primary research. In the meantime, the Executive Committee saw no advantage and several significant potential pitfalls in maintaining an AAPG Global Climate Change Committee. The AAPG Global Climate Change Committee has fulfilled its mission with passion and energy, providing lively debate. The members are sincerely thanked for a job well done. The Professional Geologist And that is pretty good, coming as it does from such a group (geologists), some of whom are die-hard so-called skeptics - *cough* Plimer... -
Albatross at 08:11 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Rob @104, There is always gliding :) -
drrocket at 08:06 AM on 13 May 2011CO2 has a short residence time
Dikran Marsupial, 5/13/11, 03:37 AM CO2 residence time On 5/12/11 at 17:43, you wrote on the If this were true, then the annual rise in atmospheric CO2 would be greater than anthropogenic emissions (as both man and the natural environment would be net emitters of CO2 to the atmosphere). The second part about the natural environment conditionally being net emitter is an assumption, your assumption, and one that doesn't follow from your hypothesis that the CO2 concentration rise is surely natural. I used your exact words; there was no problem in reading or citing what you wrote, then or now. Could it be that what you object to is your assumption being called an assumption? You assumed the conclusion would follow from your hypothesis. You say, You (like e.g. Robert Essenhigh) are confusing residence time and adjustment time. They are not the same thing, both are well defined in e.g. the IPCC reports. How did I confuse what I didn't use? Here's what IPCC says on this subject: Response time The response time or adjustment time is the time needed for the climate system or its components to re-equilibrate to a new state, following a forcing resulting from external and internal processes or feedbacks. Bold added, AR4, Glossary. I was addressing nothing like the so-called equilibration time for the climate. I would have no use for adjustment time under any circumstances because the climate system never reaches equilibrium. I was talking about the average time molecules of CO2 stay in the atmosphere, and that is given by the residence time applied to some scenario for emissions. I was talking about CO2 uptake, not about climate equilibration. Your formula, dC = E_a + E_n – U_n, doesn't have enough variables. It's missing E_a altogether. Using your symbology, IPCC's ludicrous, irrational assumption is that U_a = 0.6E_a while U_n = E_n, where E_a ~ 8 GtC/yr and E_n ~ 210 GtC/yr. What you might have written is dC = E_a – U_a + E_n – U_n = 8.0 – 4.8 + 210.2 – 210.2 = 3.2 GtC/yr This is the equation for the air-sea flux in AR4, Figure 7.3, p. 515, where I happen to score IPCC's 20 GtC/yr of ACO2 flux between air and ocean as nCO2 with no loss of generality. The problem is that IPCC's ratio of U_a/E_a = 0.5 while its ratio of U_n/E_n = 1 is unjustified, if physically possible at all, considering that ACO2 and nCO2 are just different mixes of 12CO2:13CO2:14CO2. If you have any accountancy homework, just post it here, too, for lessons. -
Bob Lacatena at 07:39 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
103, cynicus, And yet even they were forced to mollify their position in 2007 because (in their words) "the current policy statement is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members." The revised statement pretty much says nothing. It says that climate has changed in the past (no, really?), that the most extreme predictions of climate change aren't likely to come to pass (no, really?), and that they support alternative energy sources and conservation (with constant references to the need for it to be economically palatable). It's hardly a resounding refutation of current climate science. -
KR at 07:13 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
ClimateWatcher - "Make the world more like the subtropics and it will cool off because it will emit more energy to space. Make the world more like the polar regions and it will warm up because it will emit less energy to space. " This is one of the more outrageous statements you've made. You are, I hope, aware of the T^4 relationship between temperature and power emitted? Of course the tropics emit more energy, they are warmer! I would rather not turn the polar regions into tropics, myself - it would have rather harsh consequences for the middle latitudes, let alone the present tropics. Moist air emits less energy than dry air at any particular temperature, ClimateWatcher. Predicted, tested, proven. -
Michael.M at 06:48 AM on 13 May 2011Climate Change Denial book now available!
Got my copy yesterday - ten days earlier than expected when ordering at amazon germany. :-) -
Rob Honeycutt at 06:39 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
DSL @ 99.... Right! I really don't think the skeptics quite understand that no one wants AGW to be real. We would all be relieved if this weren't real. I'm a licensed general aviation pilot and I'd love to feel free to burn as much fossil fuel as my little heart desires but I've grounded myself until an adequate bio-fuel alternative is on the market. My passion for aviation takes a backseat to the future my kids will inherit. -
chris at 06:24 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
ClimateWatcher, your assertion that "But even in recent decades, as the instrumentation has become more uniform, the sonde data do not show positive feedback", isn't true. For example, the radiosonde reanalysis of McCarthy et al (2009) does show a positive water vapour response to tropospheric warming. Likewise the reanalyses described by Dessler and Davis (2010). Likewise with the new radiosonde analyses described in Dai et al. (2011). Paltridge et al is not a particularly convincing example for your argument. After all the authors themselves conclude:"It is of course possible that the observed humidity trends from the NCEP data are simply the result of problems with the instrumentation and operation of the global radiosonde network from which the data are derived."
I don't think one can dismiss the very large body of work from satellites and now from raiosonde reanalysis that global warming is accompanied (amplified) by enhanced tropospheric water vapour. -
cynicus at 06:20 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
@101 Sphaerica, I bet the "American Society of Petroleum geologists" would fit that question. Does it surprise you? -
Bob Lacatena at 06:06 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
22, ClimateWatcher, I can't believe anyone would still put forward the Partridge paper as evidence/argument for anything. -
ClimateWatcher at 05:53 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
#12 There are problems with satellite estimates of humidity also: (see slide 15 for contradictory trends between two satellites ) As to RAOB, I'm sure you're familiar with the Paltridge paper There are problems with sonde data, notably spatial coverage and instrumentation change. But even in recent decades, as the instrumentation has become more uniform, the sonde data do not show positive feedback. One should also look further. People assume that when humidity increases, infrared emission to space decreases. But we observe the opposite. Excluding cloudy areas, the moist subtropics emit more to space than do the dry polar regions. It is temperature and vertical variation of humidity that govern earth's emission amount and not to total water vapor. Make the world more like the subtropics and it will cool off because it will emit more energy to space. Make the world more like the polar regions and it will warm up because it will emit less energy to space. -
dana1981 at 05:38 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
chris #17 - interesting letter, thanks for the link. -
les at 05:26 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Chris G 16 - yes the odds are against it, but the cost of believing you're Galileo is small (is you do do quiet to your self) and the payoff is high is you are right. Well worth it! 19 - yes, it is curious and fascinating... -
Utahn at 05:14 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Harry you said earlier that one problem was that: "First,the researchers excluded from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth (i.e., solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists and astronomers)." A quick example from my field (rheumatology, a subspecialty of internal medicine): Suppose you wanted to find out the current scientific consensus on how to treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis. If you surveyed rheumatologists who treat the most patients with rheumatoid arthritis, and are doing active research on rheumatoid arthritis, you would get the most scientifically sound answer to your question. You would expect a somewhat less sound answer if you surveyed, orthopedists, physical therapists, chiropracters, sports medicine doctors, or general internists, even though they might all have something to do with "arthritis". The most scientifically sound answer would come from the ones actively working in and doing research in the field in question don't you think? -
Chris G at 05:11 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Back on Lindzen, it is a curious thing that someone whose own model of how climate works is full of incorrect premises should spend so much time criticizing the models used by the IPCC. -
Bob Lacatena at 05:11 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
100, Albatross Interesting. Are you aware of any agencies that "dis-endorse" climate change? If 97 out of 100 scientists isn't good enough for some people, how about 100 out of 100 agencies and organizations populated by large numbers of scientists, and which in and of themselves have little to gain (financially) by supporting any one theory or another? How about it? Are there any real agencies out there that have publicly refuted climate change (and we're not including organizations like The Cato Heartland Freedom and Liberty Institute for Energy, Science, and Free Markets and Definitely Against Rabid Socialism and Such [a subsidiary of Exxon Mobile])? -
Chris G at 05:08 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Les, on second, read, I think I misunderstood your point on the first go. Please disregard my last comment. -
chris at 05:06 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Here's a copy of the Nature letter (by Dr. Lindzen) and response (by Drs Hoffert and Covey) I excerpted from in my post @7 above. The Hoffert/Covey response is very good... -
Chris G at 05:02 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
Les, Not that it matters, but I think the odds are against it. As for your reference to Poptech's list, I'll admit to some curiosity about it, but he lost me when he claimed to have a better understanding of what some papers mean than the persons who wrote them. -
Albatross at 04:44 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Harry @98, "I don't know of any scientists period that would make that statment." Bad news, I'm a scientist and I made that statement. But then again, you don't know me ;) As for agencies who have issued statements on the theory of AGW (from here) Scientific organizations endorsing the consensus The following scientific organizations endorse the consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities": American Association for the Advancement of Science American Astronomical Society American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Physics American Meteorological Society American Physical Society Australian Coral Reef Society Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO British Antarctic Survey Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Environmental Protection Agency European Federation of Geologists European Geosciences Union European Physical Society Federation of American Scientists Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies Geological Society of America Geological Society of Australia International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics National Center for Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Royal Meteorological Society Royal Society of the UK The Academies of Science from 19 different countries all endorse the consensus. 11 countries have signed a joint statement endorsing the consensus position: Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil) Royal Society of Canada Chinese Academy of Sciences Academie des Sciences (France) Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany) Indian National Science Academy Accademia dei Lincei (Italy) Science Council of Japan Russian Academy of Sciences Royal Society (United Kingdom) National Academy of Sciences (USA) (12 Mar 2009 news release) A letter from 18 scientific organizations to US Congress states: "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science." The consensus is also endorsed by a Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC), including the following bodies: African Academy of Sciences Cameroon Academy of Sciences Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences Kenya National Academy of Sciences Madagascar's National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences Nigerian Academy of Sciences l'Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal Uganda National Academy of Sciences Academy of Science of South Africa Tanzania Academy of Sciences Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences Zambia Academy of Sciences Sudan Academy of Sciences Two other Academies of Sciences that endorse the consensus: Royal Society of New Zealand Polish Academy of Sciences" -
les at 04:40 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
History shows that at least one person who thought hes was Galilao was right. It follows that "it is possible for someone who thinks they are Galilao to be right." from which we derive "not all people who think they are Galilao are mistaken". Any good? (I'm sitting for my Clinate "skeptic" exams. Think I'll pass?) -
DSL at 04:37 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Bud, Lyman and OHC are discussed here. If you still have questions, ask them there. Aye, Rob, at 94. Would it not be most excellent if it turned out that the planet isn't warming as we think it is, or that some mechanism is going to kick in and bring cooling? John's book would stop selling, but I suspect he wouldn't mind so much. Indeed, it would be the opportunity for another book: What Went Right. But everything's about probability, and right now a much warmer coming century is much, much more likely than temperature-as-usual or cooling. It also seems silly to think that climate scientists will "win" somehow by predicting a warmer planet. Such a hoax would be readily dismissed within a decade or two, and the income gained from employment would be balanced by the eventual inability to gain employment in one's chosen field. And what happens to scientists in a warmer future, if we go BAU? It's not like climatology is going to expand as a field. It's likely going to contract, as government spending will need to be shifted to mitigation, damage control, and infrastructure construction/reconstruction as migrations (forced and voluntary) occur. -
Chris G at 04:33 AM on 13 May 2011Lindzen Illusion #7: The Anti-Galileo
FWIW, I think I connected the wrong dots. Covey references Lindzen (1993), which I took to be an actual article with particulars, where he meant the same discussion piece that dankd linked in Lindzen #4. I suspect another, possibly more important piece of work, for this discussion, is referenced by Covey as Kirk-Davidoff, D. B. and Lindzen, R. S.: 1993, Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union annual Fall .Meeting, San Francisco, CA. which might also be known as Kirk-Davidoff, D.B., and R.S. Lindzen, 1993: On the Role of Meridional Energy Fluxes in Climate Change. Oral Presentation, Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~dankd/CV.pdf I have not found a publication of that paper by the same name. I'm wondering if dankd the poster here is Daniel Kirk-Davidhoff, the primary author of the paper above, and if so, if he could shed some light on the different mechanics between orbital and GHG forcings. -
Harry Seaward at 04:32 AM on 13 May 2011Infographic: 97 out of 100 climate experts think humans are causing global warming
Alb at 86 I don't know of any scientists period that would make that statment. Stands to reason the professional scientific societies would not either. I thought we all agreed that human GHG emissions are making some sort of contribution to global warming. And, remember this survey referenced in the article starting this thread is referring to this questions: "2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" Activity can mean and does imply other factors other than GHG emissions. The question is not inconvenient, it is merely inept.
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