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Comments 86251 to 86300:

86251. johnny4550 at 17:40 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Rob, this totally irrelevant to the point I raised. I was not discussing the point that there is no CO2 increase, or that it doesn't contribute to stratospheric cooling or to ground warming. All this wouldn't be contradictory with the fact that the warming is still compatible with the natural variability (which doesn't mean that it proves there is no anthropogenic component), and doesn't justify the-wrong- "conservation of energy" argument. Please stick on what I'm really discussing if you want to answer me.
86252. Martin at 17:33 PM on 9 May 2011
       Why 450 ppm is not a safe target
       #43, Spherica sorry, I clicked on the wrong button before I was finished. That bit starting with 5. Interglacial ... is a quotation. And so is this bit: "We conclude that ocean cores provide a better measure of global temperature change than ice cores during those interglacial periods that were warmer than the pre-industrial Holocene." Again my question, is this preference for ocean cores during warm interglacials main stream climate science or particular to Hansen and Sato.
86253. Martin at 17:29 PM on 9 May 2011
       Why 450 ppm is not a safe target
       # 43, Spherica Actually, I do think that Hansen and Sato 2011 states that ocean cores are in some instances better than ice cores. 5. Interglacial temperatures Fig. 4 raises important questions. How warm were recent interglacial periods relative to the Holocene? Do ice cores or ocean cores yield a better estimate of global temperature change during those interglacial periods?
86254. Rob Painting at 16:59 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny - "OK since most of the comments seem to show a very poor understanding of physical processes" Yeah, right. Not only does your warming from the ocean, not cause cooling in said ocean, but for some really weird reason it seems to happen predominantly at night and induces stratospheric cooling ( a signature of the increased greenhouse effect) Note the natural variability over the last 800,000 years: Johnny and Richard Lindzen "natural variability" shown in top right-hand corner. And if you're wondering why the temperature has not yet surpassed earlier interglacials, see CO2 lags temperature - what does it mean?
       Moderator Response: [muoncounter] Changed IMG 'alt' tag to IMG 'width'
86255. johnny4550 at 16:26 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       yes, classic - from you , apparently. I'm not here to teach you physics. I was just surprised to read an argument that I didn't understand. I asked for explanations, and what I read confirms that the argument is wrong, and based of wrong pictures of what natural variability really means. Believe it or not, I don't care. I would be interested in continuing the discussion if I were sure that it could be hold in an open and peaceful way, without censorship. What I've read from the other posts shows me that it is probably not the case, so good bye.
       Response:

       [DB] You did indeed come here with a question.  One for which you received a multitude of responses all from people trying to help you.  You subsequent replies of "you don't know anything" (I paraphrase) are more indicative of equal parts:

       • poorly-framed initial question on your part
       • lack of interest in meaningful dialogue on your part

       Based on the multiple questions from responders asking you to reframe your question to better reply to it you now withdraw, claiming censorship and lack of open and peaceful discussion.  That is your right to do.  It is also your loss, for nowhere on the Intertubes exists a forum with the level of open scientific discourse free from invective and censorship (provided comments comply with the comments policy) as this one.

86256. Tom Curtis at 16:17 PM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       lucia @198, in attempting to rebut a prior comment you argued that an upper limit could be placed on the probability that 2007 was the peak value over the period, which said was derived by the formula "( 1- 0.975^20) = 0.3973 as the probability all previous 20 are lower". In fact, the probability that all 20 previous values within the range of statistical significance are lower, is just the probability the 2007 was higher, or using your simple test of the upper bound of that probability, 0.975^20 =~= 0.60. Reducing the number of years within statistical significance to eight increases the upper bound of that probability to approx 0.88, ie, it effectively halves our uncertainty. What is more, it effectively halves the uncertainty that 2010 has the highest value of those years which are within statistical significance relative to 2007 regardless of what that probability (using your naive assumptions) regardless of what that probability is for the excluded years (those years for which 2007 is within their 95% confidence limit, but 2010 is not) because all of those years are very close to being at the 95% confidence limit for 2007. So I was careless in my wording. I should have said that our uncertainty halves rather than that our certainty doubles. And I should also have restricted that claim to your naive interpretation. But the increase in certainty is real, and significant. I say your naive interpretation, of course, because it assumes the difference between actual and reconstructed values follows a normal distribution (which is unproven) and that the values are independent, which is known to be false in that there is significant autocorrelation in the series, particularly once the effects of major tropical volcanoes are excluded. (As there are known to have been no major tropical volcanoes in the period 1920-1960, the latter is particularly important.) It assumes that the values determined by satellite observation have no uncertainty. It also assumes that the method of reconstruction is not biased in favour of high values in the middle of the twentieth century, whereas I suspect there is reason to think it is. (Note, I am not making any claim of wrong doing, only of statistical bias that resulted from perfectly reasonable methods.) Now if you where to calculate the autocorrelation of the series excluding the three years after any major tropical volcano, and use that autocorrelation in determining the probabilities of any given year exceeding the 2007 (or 2010) value, I would be very interested. I am, unfortunately, not mathematician enough to do that myself; but I am logician enough to know that without factoring autocorrelation in, your probability calculations are effectively worthless.
86257. dana1981 at 16:06 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Ah yes, the old "I'm right because I'm smart and you're dumb" argument, along with a little "if you're too dumb to understand what I'm saying then I'm not going to bother trying to explain it to you." Classic :-)
86258. johnny4550 at 15:48 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       KR : "Well then, pray, expound! Natural variability includes things like the ENSO, where energy shifts between ocean and air and back again. How would heating in one area not be reflected in cooling in another and not violate conservation of energy? " This is a very bad description of ENSO cycle, and there is no "conservation of energy" in open systems. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/elninosfc.shtml "El Niño episodes also contribute to large-scale temperature departures throughout the world, with most of the affected regions experiencing abnormally warm conditions during December-February." Some regions can cool, like the Gulf coast, but not because the conservation of anything : the overall warming is positive (it should be zero if it were only a heat transfer from one region to another). I'm not offering my own theory of GW : you are stating that Lindzen is grossly and obviously wrong, and you believe you can demolish it with a crude argument that a first year student should understand (if it's getting warmer somewhere, it must cool elsewhere ! ) -but this argument is simply wrong ) and shows you have little grasp of what you're discussing.
86259. adelady at 14:51 PM on 9 May 2011
       What scientists are saying about Skeptical Science
       So it's not just us who think highly of your work. The fact that you've attracted so many good writers is an endorsement in itself. Good work everyone. And it's nice to know there are lots of readers as well as commenters.
86260. Albatross at 14:44 PM on 9 May 2011
       What scientists are saying about Skeptical Science
       Congrats John, I hope that more endorsements keep rolling on in.
86261. KR at 14:33 PM on 9 May 2011
       What scientists are saying about Skeptical Science
       Thumbs up, John.
86262. KeenOn350 at 14:28 PM on 9 May 2011
       What scientists are saying about Skeptical Science
       Nice accolades, John, and well-earned. DaveW
86263. lucia at 12:52 PM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Tom That difference approximately doubles our confidence that the most recent peak value is in fact the actual peak value over the entire period, at least using Lucia's simplistic interpretation of confidence intervals. I'm not sure how you are getting "doubles" our confidence the most recent peak value is in fact the actual peak value or even how you are defining doubling our confidence. If we were remotely confident year X was a peak year (thought the probability was greater than 50%) we could hardly double our confidence to more than 100%. Using the actual reconstructed, the uncertainty in the reconstruction based on the residuals to the reconstruction and the 2007 melt index value values, I get a very low probability that 2007 exceeded the melt index during the years for which FKM provide reconstructed values. (I get the probability 2007 actually is the peak value near 12-13%). So, 2007 was probably not a record. On the other hand, It occurred to me that in addition to estimating the probability it's a record, I could also estimate where it stood in the distribution of likely "true" (not reconstructed) values of the melt index. (This turns out to be very easy to do and I'm going to discuss this likely on Tuesday.) I'm also getting that 2007 is probably in the top 2.5% of all values in the period of the reconstruction. What actual numerical value are you getting for 2010 using your graphical method? I can check whether your estimate of 2010 would likely be a record. (Knowing numerical values, I think the result will be that 2010 is also probably not a record, but who knows? I'm sure since your estimate for 2010 is higher than 2007, too is in the top 2.5% of all values in the period of the reconstruction. )
86264. Albatross at 12:42 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Ken, "This kind of remark might appeal to the emotions Daniel,.." Actually, I thought it rather useful to help people grasp the energy involved-- all this talk of W m-2 might make sense to scientists, but does not necessarily resonate will lay people. I have heard of similar example given for the amount of energy in a typical thunderstorm or a tropical storm. So it seems to me that you are arguing a strawman when you complain about the alleged "appeal to emotion". Interestingly, appealing to emotion is something that Lindzen is rather good at: "For a lot of people it is also something I call “the quest for cheap virtue”, people need a cause…and they sorta feel puffed up by having a cause like saving the Earth, and they don’t really care that they are hurting people, that they may be involved in an immoral cause, and so on, they’re perfectly happy to just go along with it because they were told it’s virtuous."
86265. Albatross at 12:25 PM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Hi Ken, Not that I'm saying your wrong, but can you describe how you arrive at the numbers you reported @40 please? And another question, I'll ask of you the same question that I asked of Johnny here. Thanks.
86266. Ken Lambert at 11:20 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Daniel Bailey response #18 "[DB] The rate of energy building up since 1970 is equivalent to 2.5 Hiroshima bombs every second. Nope, not significant" This kind of remark might appeal to the emotions Daniel, but can be rebutted in similar fashion. We are looking for 25 Hiroshima bombs every second and can only find 2.5 below 1000m in the oceans. The Earth also has an energy flux flowing in and out of the atmosphere of 6000 Hiroshima bombs every second in each 24 hour rotation.
86267. KR at 10:10 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       johnny - ""If natural variability is in play, warming in some regions should be offset by cooling areas in others" again : wrong. " Well then, pray, expound! Natural variability includes things like the ENSO, where energy shifts between ocean and air and back again. How would heating in one area not be reflected in cooling in another and not violate conservation of energy? Are you speaking of natural variation in insolation or IR radiation to space? If so, please describe what you are discussing, rather than casually dismissing others statements. Personally, johnny, I am sensing a concern troll, rather than honest questions, given that you have simply dismissed pointers to more information rather than discussing them.
86268. Berényi Péter at 09:48 AM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       
       Response:

       [DB] Anyone who wants to respond to this needs to do so on the Tracking-the-energy-from-global-warming thread, where this subject more properly belongs.  Thanks!

       I'm open to advice. It's done.
86269. Berényi Péter at 09:44 AM on 9 May 2011
       Tracking the energy from global warming
       The issue is spreading misinformation in another thread: "Satellites have measured an energy imbalance at the top of the Earth's atmosphere". It's not allowed to challenge this proposition where it occurred, we were redirected here. Therefore let's reiterate the references given there. See e.g. Trenberth 2009: "There is a TOA imbalance of 6.4 W m^-2 from CERES data and this is outside of the realm of current estimates of global imbalances that are expected from observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere". Or Trenberh 2010: "The difference between the incoming and outgoing energy -- the planetary energy imbalance -- at the top of the atmosphere is too small to be measured directly from satellites". From this it is crystal clear that satellites in fact have not measured an energy imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere, which is inconsistent with the claim they have. So far so good. But we can certainly do better than that. There was an interesting presentation on the 12th CERES-II Science Team Meeting Wednesday, November 4, 2009, Marriott Hotel, Fort Collins, CO at 9:30 am by Paul Stackhouse et al.: FLASHFLUX Update. They merged three datasets.
       1. CERES Terra EBAF Edition 1A (3/2000 - 10/2005)
       2. CERES Terra ERBE-like ES4 Edition2_Rev1 (1/2003 - 8/2007)
       3. FLASHFlux Terra+Aqua (7/2006 - 9/2009)
       They used overlap periods to remove mean difference between datasets and anchored the entire time series to the absolute values of the EBAF. Their (improved) result is seen on slide 21. At the moment we are only interested in the lower panel, the net TOA radiation balance. Unfortunately it is only a picture one can't do much with, other than staring at it. Therefore it had to be re-digitized: Net_TOA_Imbalance_Stackhouse_2009.txt. As accuracy of satellite radiative imbalance measurements is very low, the baseline is of course arbitrary. It is simply aligned to EBAF and has nothing to do with the actual imbalance. However, since precision is a bit better, we can still use it to track changes of this imbalance over time. To anchor the baseline to reality we need another data source (not considered by Stackhouse et al.) Fortunately we have quarterly data for the heat content anomaly of the upper 700 m of oceans since 1955 at the NOAA NODC Global Ocean Heat Content page. OHC (Ocean heat Content) anomaly is perfect for intercalibration purposes, because it is a linear function of the temporal integral of radiative imbalance at TOA. That is, the average slope of OHC in a time interval is indicative of average imbalance over the same period. For intercalibration we need several full years, because Stackhouse et al. only provides deseasonalized data while Levitus et al. of NODC include seasonal signal. It is best to use data from the ARGO period, because prior to that OHC is poorly and sparsely measured by diverse systems while ARGO provides a homogeneous and dense dataset. Now, before about mid-2003 ARGO coverage was not yet global, so we have to settle to the 6 years between 4. quarter 2003 and 3. quarter 2009. In this period (taking into account the error bars provided by NODC) slope of the OHC anomaly curve (for the upper 700 m) is -1.8±9.6×10²⁰ J/year, which translates to an imbalance of -11±60 mW/m². That is, in this period the climate system was probably losing heat, not gaining it, but the gain, in any case was more than an order of magnitude smaller than Trenberth's 850 mW/m²: "The TOA energy imbalance can probably be most accurately determined from climate models and is estimated to be 0.85 ± 0.15 W m^-2". Therefore heat accumulation for this period can be considered zero well within error bounds. It is fortunate, because only a fraction of the net heat content anomaly is realized in the upper 700 m of oceans, the rest comes from or goes to elsewhere (deep ocean, land, ice sheets), although at least two third remains in the upper ocean. Average of Stackhouse's net TOA imbalance for the 72 months between October 2003 and September 2009 is 202 mW/m², that is, their baseline is probably too high. If 213 mW/m² is subtracted from each of their values, it brings net TOA radiative imbalance in line with OHC data. Now, that we have the correct offset for TOA imbalance, we can calculate heat accumulation for the entire timespan covered by Stackhouse's data. It looks like this: As you can see the story the data tell is somewhat different from the standard one. Heat content of the climate system is not increasing, but decreasing. What is more, the radiative imbalance at TOA during the satellite era is about -0.26 W/m², which is, according to Trenberth, inconsistent with the 0.85±0.15 W/m² determined from climate models. Furthermore, if we suppose about 2/3 of heat content changes are realized in the upper 700 m of oceans, it turns out satellite radiative imbalance measurements at TOA are also inconsistent with pre-ARGO OHC measurements. It probably means before about mid-2003 OHC data are absolutely bogus and unusable for model testing and calibration.
86270. Albatross at 08:06 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Oh my, "OK since most of the comments seem to show a very poor understanding of physical processes,..." Dunning-Kruger or concern troll or both? This person originally state that they " I have no idea of the natural noise of the system, so I can't answer you clearly - I'm just trying to understand what is wrong with what he's saying...", and asked to be shown some more estimate as to the magnitude of the "natural noise. When presented with the evidence, they then simply dismiss out of hand a whole lot of science and observational data. But it seems that the point is not to make a valid or substantive argument, it is to fabricate faux debate and to distract us from yet another of Lindzen's failed hypotheses. Stephen @33-- "As far as I know, no one has been able to produce a model with realistic physical constraints that by internal dynamics alone can produce anything like the recent changes in temps." Not to mention being unable to explain the known fingerprints associated with a stronger "greenhouse effect" because of anthro GHG forcing. So there are two critical tests that the "skeptic" myth fails. Phil @36-- I think the other point of the Lindzen supporters here is to keep us guessing as to what the mystical forcing it could be, anything but anthro GHGs of course ;) But as DSL noted @35, we are probably "cruelly" destined to keep guessing, because of our ignorance of course. You see, if we were geniuses then we would understand Lindzen and Spencer ;)
       Response:

       [DB] I did find out johnny wasn't from Missouri...

86271. Bob Lacatena at 07:54 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       34, johnny,

       ...since most of the comments seem to show a very poor understanding of...

       It's not a good idea to simply assume that others are wrong, and that there is nothing at all that you yourself are failing to grasp.

       "If natural variability is in play, warming in some regions should be offset by cooling areas in others " again : wrong

       And this is a perfect example of something you don't appear to understand. I would suggest asking clear questions, carefully studying the answers, and then asking more questions, until you reach a point where everyone recognizes where the confusion lies. Simply declaring everyone else wrong is obviously a bad direction to take, especially when this train of comments began with you asking a series of questions. Did you really want answers, or did you just want to set up a scenario where you could declare that everyone else was wrong?
86272. logicman at 07:48 AM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       #193 - citizenschallenge Thanks for reminding me of a point I forgot to address. #164 - Chip Are you endorsing the worldclimatereport article that you link to? It affords me an opportunity to demonstrate the methods used by deniers to obfuscate, deny and delay. The political intent behind the article is to show that coastal erosion in the Arctic is not new - which I do not dispute. However, the implicit suggestion that a former moderate rate of erosion from one cause is equivalent to a current high rate from a different cause is a leap of illogic which I am unable to accept. In support of the notion of 'nothing new', the author/s present cherry-picked selections from 'Arctic' and conclude with: [quote] Hume et al. (1972) include this photograph (Figure 1) with the caption: “Aerial view of the bluffs near the village recently settled. One building collapsed and one has been moved from the bluffs as a result of the 1968 storm. The beach formerly was 30 m. in width at this point. Photo taken in August 1969.” The authors go on to add “The village will probably have to be moved sometime in the future; when depends chiefly on the weather…” [endquote] Unfortunately for the author/s, the storm events and prior erosion to which they refer are widely known. The major causes of erosion studied in Hume et al (1972)are storm erosion and erosion due to the use of beach materials for construction. The full citation, cut off in its prime by the denier/s is: "The village will probably have to be moved sometime in the future; when depends chiefly on the weather, but also on man's use of beaches." (my emphasis) The erosion was formerly due to human removal of natural coast protection materials, storms and natural summer melt of permafrost in that order of importance and ranged up to ~3 meters of bluff erosion per year. The greatest driver of erosion today is global warming and the rate is up to ~10 meters per year. denier article: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/... Hume et al (1972): Hume et al For the benefit of any reader who would like to see how many other cherries were picked, here is the complete index of free to download Arctic journal issues: Arctic Archive
86273. Phil at 07:28 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       My reading is that johnny is postulating some form of short term external variability, given his insistence on the fact that the Earth is not closed. As to what it might be, who knows ? Its not solar cycles - reading deep between the lines he seems to be suggesting some sort of variability in the earths albedo due to cyclic processes on Earth ? Perhaps ? ??
86274. Steve Bloom at 07:15 AM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Tom, this paper, to say nothing of Mchaels' and Knappenberger's entire careers, is an effort to mislead the unwary, so dismissing that as you do is entirely missing the point. An amusing exercise for those moderately informed about the details of the science is to read through a bunch of World Climate Report posts and spot the central lie. The vast majority have one.
86275. DSL at 07:02 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Perhaps you could enlighten us, rather than cruelly leaving us to wrestle with our primitive science. What does natural variability have to do with the current global warming trend, Johnny? Perhaps, since you have a better grasp on the physical processes, you could give us a theory that explains the current situation.
86276. johnny4550 at 06:42 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       OK since most of the comments seem to show a very poor understanding of physical processes, it is probably not useful to continue the discussion. Daniel : " If natural variability is in play, warming in some regions should be offset by cooling areas in others " again : wrong.
86277. Stephen Baines at 06:15 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       I wanted to follow up with an example. "Chaos," and "non-linearity" does not mean "unfathomable." There are ways to ascertain the importance of internal variability relative to external forcing -- as long as you can contrain some model parameters pretty well. Take, for example, a choatic predator prey system that is highly unpredictable on the sort term. Despite the appearing randomness of the dynamics, the flow of material and energy between the predator and prey, and between the organisms and their environment, must obey certain rules governing by the physics and biology of the organisms. If you observed more predator biomass than could be explained by their consumption of prey given those rules, you could infer that some subsidy must be present to explain the discrepancy. That subsidy would be a form of forcing acting on a chaotic system. Likewise, in the climate system, you basically have the balance of heat coming into and out of the system, and the shifting of heat among compartments within the system. Non-linear dynamics affecting temporal distribution of heat between ocean and atmosphere can influence the atmospheric temperature, but that kind of dynamic would have specific signatures (in ocean currents, chemistry and temperatures) that we could detect and which should fall within bounds set by conservation of mass and energy. The temperatures in both the ocean and atmosphere are unlikely to go up at once without their being a change in the overall forcing. The models we have in hand reproduce internal variability pretty well. As far as I know, no one has been able to produce a model with realistic physical constraints that by internal dynamics alone can produce anything like the recent changes in temps.
86278. Rob Painting at 05:55 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny @23 -again the Earth is not a closed system, you seem to imply that heating of one part implies cooling of another part Err, no, that's your misunderstanding. No one is claiming that heating of the Earth, via the greenhouse effect, will stop because of internal variability. If you remove heat from one location (the ocean) and put into the atmosphere, the ocean would be expected to cool, at least somewhere. The fact that the ocean and the atmosphere are warming (i.e. not losing heat) shoots rather large holes in Lindzen's claim. "variations of the heat content can occur with small imbalances due to any cause of variability (for instance oceanic circulation), without "cooling" anything anywhere." The variation we are referring to here, is a loss or gain of heat. How do you propose the ocean can undergo variation (heat loss) without cooling?. Just to remind you, the oceans are warming.
86279. michael sweet at 05:48 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Jonny at 22 and 23, You need to think through what you are saying. At 22 you say "I even don't see any possibility that heat would flow from the deep cold ocean layers to heat the warm surface, this would contradict the second principle ! so obviously internal variability does not transfer heat from deep ocean, upwelling of lower layers can only cool the surface" If upwelling from the deep ocean to the surface slowed that would slow cooling and cause the surface to heat. At the same time it would get cooler in the deep ocean. Thus changes in deep ocean circulation can "heat" the surface, by cooling less. By careful measurement scientists have tracked the energy and know where it is going. When you talk about the second principle you appear to have little understanding of what you are discussing. The natural variation depends on whether you add in volcanic eruptions and solar or just count internal climate variability like ENSO. What do you want to count?
86280. Stephen Baines at 05:37 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny, predator prey systems still have to obey conservation of mass and energy as well as the second law of thermodynamics. Predators cannot obtain more energy or resources than the environment (including their prey) affords. That's why density dependence occurs - organisms run out of resources (energy, nutrients, space). That's also why food chains can't be infinitely long and why biomass of consumers declines with ecosystem photosynthesis, and photosythesis scales with nutrients and precipitation. So despite those crazy potential predator prey dynamics, even ecological systems, complex as they are, display certain dynamics consistent with what one might call energetic or material forcing. They tend to be more likely to display regularities when looked at over larger time scales or when characerized by aggregate variables (like biomass). In a way, the situation is much like that in weather/climate science. On the short time scale one can get chaotic dynamics as energy or materials shuffle between one compartment of another...but when those variations are averaged over time, space and taxonomic groups, you get see something more predictable.
86281. dana1981 at 05:07 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       johnny - although the Earth isn't a closed system, if something outside the 'system' is causing a temperature change, that's not internal variability. That's an external forcing.
86282. WheelsOC at 04:41 AM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Logicman @ 186: "Scientists, as humans, make judgemental errors. But what is odd about the UN is that its gaffes are all in one direction. All are exaggeration of the effects of climate change." One of the more publicized retractions lately was of a paper that significantly underestimated sea level rise and therefore found agreement with the IPCC's 2007 underestimate. This happened back in 2010 and was even covered in the mainstream media a bit, and certainly must have made the rounds in more climate-geeky circles. Presumably that includes Pat Michaels. I see that Pat's piece claiming the IPCC never underestimates the dangers of climate change was published this April, more than a year after coverage of the Siddall et al. retraction and several years after widespread acknowledgement that the IPCC's 2007 sea level predictions were too low. There's no excuse for this, I have to conclude that Michaels is simply lying. Terms like distortion, misrepresentation, spin, etc. don't cover it.
86283. johnny4550 at 04:00 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       well thanks. My comment on the posts would be : http://www.skepticalscience.com/christy-crock-3-internal-variability.html : of course short term cycles can not explain long term trends since they are .. short term. To exclude long term trends, as far as I can judge, the argument is mainly based on computations. Not very reliable ... http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.htm : I mainly disagree with the assertion : A natural cycle requires a forcing. Unforced variability is by definition... unforced. Meaning without change of forcings. Non linear, chaotic systems can exhibit a lot of spontaneous variability with the same external conditions (see the predator-prey system for instance. An interesting sentence however : "The Little Ice Age following the Medieval Warm Period ended due to a slight increase in solar output (changes in both thermohaline circulation and volcanic activity also contributed" In my sense, changes in thermohaline circulation are an unforced variation ! so it seems to contradict the first assertion. http://www.skepticalscience.com/internal-variability.htm : basically, same as #1. http://www.skepticalscience.com/Could-global-warming-be-caused-by-natural-cycles.html same as #2. Anything else as a "strong" counter-argument ?
86284. citizenschallenge at 03:35 AM on 9 May 2011
       Frauenfeld, Knappenberger, and Michaels 2011: Obsolescence by Design?
       Mr. Knappenberger, at #164: “Maybe you'll find this article to be of interest: "Settling on an unstable Alaskan shore: A warning unheeded".” ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ How is that 2007 article supposed to make me feel any better about the current dynamics that are unfolding in the arctic? Can explain that what are you seeing in that report that reassures you into believing current conditions are little more than but “normal” natural patterns? It’s like, what’s the point of comparing an extreme 1963 storm with today’s day to day deterioration? And how does your favored article address the various inconvenient facts pointed out at #168 & #174 Albatross, or the above fifteen key finding (#190 Daniel Bailey) of the Snow, Water, Ice, Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2011 entitled: Executive Summary and Key Messages? PS. One Directional Skepticism Equals Denial {further thoughts}
86285. hank at 03:22 AM on 9 May 2011
       Q and A with Dr Haydn Washington, co-author of Climate Change Denial
       Tom, I think more broadly, we're all being too precious. That will be obvious to the grandchildren when they look back at this stuff, if they do. If they do their question will be: "Why couldn't they have pulled _together_?" > a number of blog posts [were] published completely > dismissive of what are now seen to have been genuine > concerns. Yeah, that happens. Don't feed the trolls. Barry didn't abase himself; he did say he was wrong. Monbiot didn't abase himself; he did say he was wrong. Sure, we've got the "CO2 is Life" and "Radiation is Life" gang actively working the blogs. That stuff happens. Think about the vector sum; if we can't pull together, we can at do better than being diametrically opposed to one another. The best answer to critics nowadays, from experience: "You may very well be right about that ...."
86286. Albatross at 03:14 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny @25&26, "but of course I would appreciate if you can give me good estimate of the "natural noise"" Well, you could start off by reading the post written by Dana above. You could also read this, and this, or this, or this. The science and observations are very clear-- natural variability alone cannot account for the observed warming, not even close.
86287. snapple at 02:53 AM on 9 May 2011
       Muller Misinformation #1: confusing Mike's trick with hide the decline
       Thanks for all these explanations. I understood a lot of this from other reading, but I thought that Dr. Mann had taken off the incorrect line. I also like the Climate Crock film and will watch your new shows. I understand enough to realize that it's not the climate scientists who were trying to trick me.
86288. johnny4550 at 02:39 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       but of course I would appreciate if you can give me good estimate of the "natural noise", so that it would make easy to test Lindzen's assertion.
86289. johnny4550 at 02:37 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Albatross : I have no idea of the natural noise of the system, so I can't answer you clearly - I'm just trying to understand what is wrong with what he's saying (at least as an open possibility, if not the truth), and I still didn't get the definite counter-argument.
86290. Albatross at 02:26 AM on 9 May 2011
       CO2 is plant food? If only it were so simple
       Hi Chris @72, Just saw that paper. "We can see how much these variables affect crops... for example, for a crop like wheat, a degree (Celsius) of warming on a global average translates to about a 5% loss in production." And people are still trying to argue that AGW associated with doubling of CO2, and the associated warming and shifts in precipitation are not going to be an issue. Well, here we have evidence that agriculture is already being negatively affected. We are in the coal mine, the canary is sick, and some choose to think of every reason under the sun why it is not an issue, and that there is no reason to take preventative, prudent action.
86291. Albatross at 02:12 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny, Could you please state clearly whether or not you agree with Lindzen that the observed warming can be attributed to internal variability of the climate system-- that is, his belief that the observed warming is within the natural noise of the system. Thanks.
86292. johnny4550 at 02:11 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Rob#20 : again the Earth is not a closed system, you seem to imply that heating of one part implies cooling of another part - but this is wrong, the Earth is constantly absorbing and reemitting much more energy than it stores, and variations of the heat content can occur with small imbalances due to any cause of variability (for instance oceanic circulation), without "cooling" anything anywhere.
86293. johnny4550 at 02:07 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       "Thus, the rate of energy building up since 1970 is equivalent to 2.5 Hiroshima bombs every second." Sorry but this is nothing, since the energy imbalance is supposed to be about 1W.m-2 so 1/1000th of the incoming solar power. What do you mean with your Hiroshima bombs? it's always 0.1 % of the solar irradiance ! I was just trying to understand this statement : "But if the movement of heat from the deep oceans is what's causing the surface air to warm, this hypothesis requires that the oceans as a whole and deep ocean layers in particular must be cooling." and I still don't get the point. Actually I even don't see any possibility that heat would flow from the deep cold ocean layers to heat the warm surface, this would contradict the second principle ! so obviously internal variability does not transfer heat from deep ocean, upwelling of lower layers can only cool the surface- but still why is internal variability, for instance of the surface heat transfer processes, excluded ? or rather what is its natural limit, since we seem to all agree that it exists at some level ?
86294. Albatross at 01:59 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Pete @17, "Dorlomin, certainly Lindzen must have done very good work in meteorology to have an endowed chair at MIT. But that was then, this is now." You have just hit the nail on the head. What I find bemusing is when 'skeptics' uncritically lap up Lindzen's BS (Bad Science), and worse yet, try and defend it.
86295. Rob Painting at 01:17 AM on 9 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Johnny @ 16 - "I meant barring the effect of GHG, is there still room for variability ? I still don't understand why the OHC should stay constant if there is variability?" If the OHC is so variable, where do you think all that heat could go?. Natural variability in this context simply means the exchange of heat between the oceans and the atmosphere. Consider the specific heat content of water compared to the atmosphere, if a significant proportion of that ocean heat were released to the atmosphere, we'd see rapid global warming, but the oceans would have to cool. No way around that.
86296. Tom Curtis at 01:01 AM on 9 May 2011
       Q and A with Dr Haydn Washington, co-author of Climate Change Denial
       Barry Brook @19, it seems to me that you are being too precious. You want, at the same time, to consider Dr Washington's calling nuclear a "false solution" an insult, but decree that calling Dr Washington "misinformed" is not ad hominen. Saying that something is a false solution says no more than that something appears to be a solution, but is not one. Any insult you read into what amounts to a simple statement of an opinion you disagree with is entirely your own problem. I have to say that while I am open to the use of Nuclear power as probably being necessary to avoid excessive global warming, advocates of that view have not covered themselves with glory lately. In particular, at the start of the Fukushima accident, a number of blog posts where published completely dismissive of what are now seen to have been genuine concerns. Your own claim that, " There is no credible risk of a serious accident" shows in hindsight that you have rose coloured glasses when it comes to nuclear issues. I have no problem with that. Without enthusiasms or concerns, nobody would take the effort to become reasonably informed on any topic. But when you couple that with an attitude which sees any critique as necessarily insulting and uninformed, nothing is suggested as much as a closed mind.
86297. Pete Dunkelberg at 23:30 PM on 8 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       I want to add that I appreciate Dorlomin's point and it is a good one. It's just that sometimes it isn't good enough.
86298. Ken Lambert at 23:12 PM on 8 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       dana1981 original post Both Fig 1 and Fig 2 have been discussed in detail elsewhere on this blog. Fig 1 has the dubious 'step jump' in the 2001-03 period where Argo measurement took over. The linear trend line showing a global +0.64W/sq.m for 1993-2009 is likely bogus because the step jump does not show in the satellite TOA data. Fig 2 " And Purkey & Johnson (2010) reconstructed ocean heat accumulation down to abyssal depths and found significant amounts of heat building up even at the bottom of the ocean (Figure 2)." Well they found globally a sum of about 0.09W/sq.m below 1000m which is only one tenth of the claimed global warming imbalance of 0.9W/sq.m. Not that significant at all.
       Response:

       [DB] The rate of energy building up since 1970 is equivalent to 2.5 Hiroshima bombs every second.

       Nope, not significant.

86299. danielbacon at 22:43 PM on 8 May 2011
       Climate Change Denial book now available!
       I am with the others on the Kindle version, my wife will not allow hard copies to be added our library not only for environmental reason but there is no more space in our house for more books. Any idea when or if it will be available?
86300. Pete Dunkelberg at 22:20 PM on 8 May 2011
       Lindzen Illusion #5: Internal Variability
       Dorlomin, certainly Lindzen must have done very good work in meteorology to have an endowed chair at MIT. But that was then, this is now. He is not highly cited (in the literature) for his climate work of recent years. Instead he has made a practice of saying in public things he would not even try in scientific public publication. "He says crazier things in public than he does in his papers" is very close to a quote from RC if I recall correctly. IMHO he has lost his moral bearings. As a scientist he should know that if he can not make his case scientifically (and considering the consequences for all of us if he is wrong and believed) then it is highly irresponsible to keep saying what he says in public. By the way Tamino has had enough.

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