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Rob Honeycutt at 05:30 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Poptech... HK is not part of the SEZ. It just happens to be the "gateway" to the SEZ. You may note that Shenzhen (on the HK border) has grown from a small fishing village into a metropolis of nearly 10 million since the SEZ was established. And that's not even counting the growth of the other cities included in the SEZ. THAT has driven the prosperity of HK. HK would have prospered regardless of what form of government was established there. The feather in your cap has nothing to do with Libertarianism. -
muoncounter at 05:30 AM on 26 March 2011Temp record is unreliable
Reply to comment from here. "The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project is incorporating criticism of data collection sites" And here is what the BEST project says as of today: We are first analyzing a small subset of data (2%) to check our programs and statistical methods and make sure that they are functioning effectively. We are correcting our programs and methods while still “blind” to the results so that there is less chance of inadvertently introducing a bias. The Berkeley Earth team feels very strongly that no conclusions can yet be drawn from this preliminary analysis. -- emphasis added Best to wait until there's a finding before rushing to judgment. But then, you're reading Watt$. -
damorbel at 05:26 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #843 Response: '[Dikran Marsupial] You are still not making the distinction between the "effective temperature" of a photon/emitting particle and the temperature of the emitting body.' Sorry, I must have missed something; "effective temperature"? I had not realised this matter had been commented on. Can you help me?Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] I think you need to read the article that you introduced to the discussion here a little more carefully. Note the author talks about the 'temperature' of a photon, the quotes imply that the meaning of temperature was not the usual meaning of the word.[muoncounter] The article uses 'equivalent temperature,' rather than 'effective temperature'.
[Dikran Marsupial] You are quite right, mea culpa - oh the irony! ;o)
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muoncounter at 05:25 AM on 26 March 2011Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer
Reply to cjshaker #8 on Surface temperature record thread. -
muoncounter at 05:19 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
PT: "... an irrefutable direct correlation" You link to a Heritage Foundation graph of GDP per capita vs. 'economic freedom score', whatever that is. Your 'irrefutable correlation' boasts an R^2 of 0.45; hardly proof of anything other than the existence of dots on a page. But based on prior PT discussions, I'm assuming you didn't actually look at the graph before linking to it. -
y-not at 05:18 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
I love the term "Gish Gallop". Maybe it would be useful to have an extensive set of such labels, and a lexicon, for the processes that skeptics use. This could then be used to build a matrix to classify the skeptic and/or the article/publication, to help avoid getting bogged down in some of the recycled detail.Moderator Response: [DB] Over on the 2nd Law, Meet the Denominator and Waste Heat threads we have PRATT in action... -
Rob Honeycutt at 05:15 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Lest we forget... All property in HK is owned by, yes, the HK government. In HK you can only lease your property from the government. How does that jibe with Libertarian ideology? -
muoncounter at 05:10 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Gilles: "The amount of available FF is increasing with time. And there are not one, but two excellent reasons for that - ... we're becoming more and more performant to drill oil wells very deep in the ocean, extract hydrocarbons from shale, and so on... so actually for a given quality, they become cheaper and cheaper" This Gillesian logic is based on the usual paucity of facts: Do you have any data on the full-cycle finding and development cost per boe? Do you know that this cost has increased 6-fold in the last ten years? Do you know the average 'break-even price' continues to increase at a rate comparable to the market price per boe? " - increasing the efficiency raises the wealth produced by unit energy, so increases the cost of not using them." As far as the increasing cost of not using fossil fuel, that's a concept that is only fit for use on the Bizarro planet. -
cjshaker at 05:03 AM on 26 March 2011Most of the last 10,000 years were warmer
It appears that the modern temperature record being posted above may not be very accurate. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project is incorporating criticism of data collection sites from Anthony Watts and his team (wattsupwiththat.com) "NEW - There have been many criticisms of station quality. How can you be sure that your results will be good if you are including stations that do not meet NOAA’s criteria for station quality? One of the elements that we plan to study is temperature records from just the very best sites (as classified by Anthony Watts and his team) contrasted with the poorer sites. We will include this comparison when we release our analysis. Each of our 39,028 sites has also been classified as urban or rural using the map published by the Modis satellite team, and we will use that classification to look for differences. " http://www.berkeleyearth.org/FAQ The most recent post I've found on the topic "In the next picture, Steve shows what Briffa and Osborn did – not only did they truncate their reconstruction to hide a steep decline in the late 20th Century but also a substantial early segment from 1402-1550:" [SNIP] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/steve-mcintyre-uncovers-another-trick/ Chris ShakerModerator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Quoted accusation of dishonesty snipped. Lets keep it to the scientific issues only please. -
dana1981 at 05:00 AM on 26 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
We've been meaning to do the extreme weather rebuttal, but there are only so many hours in the day. We're only human. The research is out there though, I've previously read a number of studies on the subject. I just can't produce them without re-doing a Google Scholar search, which you could do just as easily as I could. One quick example I can provide is Peduzzi 2004. -
Rob Honeycutt at 04:54 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Poptech... You have a complete and total concept of what will lead to economic disaster. And Hong Kong? How much time do you spend in HK, Andrew? I spend a lot of time there. I speak Cantonese. My wife is Chinese. How you come to the conclusion that HK is some bastion of Libertarianism it totally beyond me. Do you think that, you know, just maybe HK has prospered because it has been the gateway city to the economic development in Shenzhen and the entire Pearl River Valley? (Dong guan, Guangzhou, etc.) You remember? The "economic development zone" set up by the (ahem) Communist Chinese Government. -
johnd at 04:52 AM on 26 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
re "Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See the thread on Extreme weather." There seems to be a lack of links to studies there also, something pointed out, but remains unaddressed. -
pbjamm at 04:51 AM on 26 March 2011Meet The Denominator
Please let this tread die. It is more maddening than the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics thread since it is all opinion and devoid of science content. -
Rob Honeycutt at 04:32 AM on 26 March 2011Meet The Denominator
WSteven said... "So, yes you did unless you've reinvented english and logic." Ding! Ding! Ding! Yes, Johnny, we have a winner! This is exactly Poptech's calling card. The alternate reality of Poptech logic. -
johnd at 04:30 AM on 26 March 2011Zero Carbon Australia: We can do it
Ken Lambert at 23:55 PM, just to add a point about the use of coal globally. In Asia more and more electricity is being produced by IPP's (independent power producers) who compete to supply power generally to the government authority for distribution. They are totally commercial profit making operations. Those that use coal have to pay world prices for it even if it is being mined in country, so there are no subsidies there, especially now with the global demand for coal. Ah, yes, the RSI outbreak, an interesting study of human behavior I thought. As an aside, what was the plant you were involved in the commissioning of? -
Rob Honeycutt at 04:21 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Poptech... I realize there is more than one macroeconomic theory. Do not underestimate my knowledge in this area. I know about the Austrian School and Mises. And the Chicago School and Keynesianism. You are mincing words with a broad axe. The point being, Libertarianism today is a guise for setting up a Plutocratic state. Most who profess to believe in Libertarian values do not even have a concept of what they are asking for. This is quite well evidenced through the article here. So, in a way you are correct. No one is talking about true Libertarian ideals, any more than Communism ever had that much to do with Marxism. My problem with Libertarians is, like Communism, it will never be applied as defined and will never work. It's a recipe for economic collapse. -
johnkg at 04:19 AM on 26 March 2011Meet The Denominator
#782 Alarmists do not use the UAH satellite record but instead use the ones that show a more pronounced warming. ergo, the IPCC are not alarmist. -
les at 04:00 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Gilles, there are so many reasons I don't understand what you're saying, it's unimaginable; but not sharing in your confusion on economic growth (and many many other issues) isn't (aren't) amongst them. Anyway, nice to see that your knowledge of economics is right up their with your physics and stats. -
Gilles at 03:55 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
DM : "No, that would only be true if it burned cleanly and completely, which generally is not the case (e.g. carbon monoxide in car exaust fumes). " i'd like to strongly discourage you from thinking that you can reduce the CO2 by increasing CO - fortunately CO is slowly oxidized by radical reactions in the atmosphere (much like CH4) and ends up also as CO2. " Tar sands produce less energy per unit carbon than natural gas because you need to expend (vastly) more energy extracting it." If you think a little bit more of what you're saying, you will see that it's exactly what I am saying : all the carbon extracted gives eventually CO2, the only drawback is that less usable energy is produced with it. Tar sand do not emit "more CO2" per unit C - they only produce less usable energy per CO2 molecule.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] I have rarely seen such an obvious example of trolling than suggesting anyone would think that increasing CO emissions would be a way of reducing CO2. Sorry, I am issuing a nolle prosequi on that one! ;o) -
johnd at 03:53 AM on 26 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
dana1981 at 02:19 AM, I am disappointed that you are unable to readily provide such references. That is not upholding the general spirit of SkS in that it is expected anyone making assertions,or even expressing opinions, should at least provide links to support their claims. Whilst the matter of extreme events has been raised in a number of threads, generally relating to specific weather events such as the recent floods in Australia for example, or as you mentioned, the Tennessee floods, there has been no thread that I know of that has addressed it statistically rather than emotionally. One of the points that needs to be resolved is the apparent conflict in some peoples minds of, one hand, attributing some such extreme events to conditions such as the current La-Nina for example, yet on the other hand, maintaining a general assertion that such systems are oscillations that are not indications of any trends. An event such as the Brisbane floods is a weather event, not a climate event. From an Australian climate perspective the actual event is this current La-Nina coinciding with a -ve IOD. Perhaps you would like to present such a review on extreme climate events on a new thread?Moderator Response: [muoncounter] See the thread on Extreme weather. The key take-away is, as dana pointed out, simply one of increasing probabilities of extreme events due to warming. -
Gilles at 03:48 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
"Efficiency means exactly producing more usable product per unit of input. In the case of oil, using less of it for the same output will reduce CO2 production" les, the important point is that there is no reason to keep the same output if efficiency is increased. That's the very principle of economic growth. increasing the efficiency doesn't reduce in general the energy use and keep the output constant, but quite the opposite : keep the energy use constant and increase the output. If you don't get this point, you can't really understand what I'm saying. Actually it is worse like that, because increasing efficiency does event not keep energy reserves constant : it tends also to increase it. The amount of available FF is increasing with time.And there are not one, but two excellent reasons for that - increasing the efficiency of technology tends to decrease the extraction costs : we're becoming more and more performant to drill oil wells very deep in the ocean, extract hydrocarbons from shale, and so on... so actually for a given quality, they become cheaper and cheaper - increasing the efficiency raises the wealth produced by unit energy, so increases the cost of not using them . A cost-benefit analysis will be displaced towards a larger consumption equilibrium value. For the "cost" of burning 1 t C is always the same (it can be even lowered by improving adaption and mitigation), but the "benefit" increases. So not burning this t of C is increasingly expensive. If you want an explanation of why all discussions about "reducing CO2" universally fail, these are two very good reasons - you can have a reduction of the annual rate - this won't insure at all that you will reduce the total amount, quite the opposite actually. -
jatufin at 03:48 AM on 26 March 2011The Washington Times Talks Greenhouse Law
Carbon monoxide, doh! Of course I learned as a little boy, that "when the blue flames have run out, you can close the damper". Never realized the lethal amount really is so tiny. In crowded room you could easily say: "If there were as much carbon monoxide in this room, as there's CO2, we would all be dead in less than an hour". Or on sidewalk in big city. -
michael sweet at 02:38 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
John, This was the first time I have seen your one liners to counter a long Gish Gallop. I thought that they were very effective. -
damorbel at 02:32 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #842 Bibliovermis you wrote :- "Individual photons with equal 'temperature' (energy / wavelength / frequency) are identical regardless of source temperature." This is precisely what Einstein's 1916 paper is about, he shows how the electromagnetic 'Planck black body spectrum' is equivalent to the Maxwell-Boltzmann energy distribution in an ideal gas. -
Rob Honeycutt at 02:31 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Poptech said... "any "solution" involving government fiat has nothing to do with markets and thus is impossible for it to be a "market-solution"." You're a little slim on your macroeconomics there, Poptech. You might go back are read a little Keynes. Government is very much involved in economics. The governments uses a wide variety of tools to modify desirable market behaviors. Interest rates, tax incentives, money supply, etc. If you take the government completely out of economics then the market literally becomes the government. And I think that is exactly what Libertarians want. Especially very large and powerful corporations. The term is: Plutocracy. The problem is that Libertarians rely on the mistaken idea from the Chicago School that markets are inherently rational. The last decade should tell anyone that they are decidedly not so. Even in their best Milton Freedman-esk attempt to prove it (the Greenspan years) the Fed still had to modify the market through interest rate adjustments. Don't forget Greenspan's word after the collapse. "We underestimated banks ability to police themselves." -
Philippe Chantreau at 02:29 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
This has gone on long enough. I would like to encourage all to abide by this principle we keep on talking about yet keep on ignoring: DNFTT. Of course, every time we try, they spew another humongous piece of absurdity and we can't help but point it out. We have to stop doing that. They have all done has done an excellent job of demonstrating the extent of their confusion and no amount of redirecting can reconcile them with reality. At some, point, one's mind must be acknowledged as having declared itself. We're long past that. -
dana1981 at 02:29 AM on 26 March 2011Pre-1940 Warming Causes and Logic
Gilles #72 - if you had read my link, you would have seen"it is very unlikely that [transient climate response] is less than 1°C"
This is a minimum transient climate sensitivity parameter of 0.27 Wm-2K-1. For an increase in CO2 from 280 to 310 ppm (pre-industrial to 1940), the minimum anthropogenic warming by 1940 is 0.15°C. Or if you just look at the increase from 1900 to 1940, the minimum warming is 0.07°C. So it depends whether you're considering the anthropogenic contribution to 1940 from pre-industrial, or from 1900. But there is a minimum transient response. -
damorbel at 02:27 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #840 in Response: [Dikran Marsupial] you wrote :- "No, it means they have the same "equivalent temperature", it does not imply they were emitted by bodies of the same temperature." Photons are generated in different ways, but when they are generated by molecular motions they have energy directly related to the temperature of the particles. Einstein wrote a paper about this in 1916 "Zur Quantentheorie der Strahlung" and I've never seen it contradicted. Photonic energy is regarded as electromagnetic, although when they are created they take mechanical momentum from the emitting particle and give it (the momentum ) up when absorbed. But photons are not mechanical 'objects'; they have no mass, so they can't collide. Collision is how mechanical particles exchange momentum (thus energy), according to kinetic theory. Temperature is essentially a mechanical concept, that is why the energy of a photon gives it an 'equivalent' temperature.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] You are still not making the distinction between the "effective temperature" of a photon/emitting particle and the temperature of the emitting body. Oh well, you can lead a horse to water... -
Bibliovermis at 02:20 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Discussing an individual photon's 'temperature' is a bit of semantic play, which is why quotes are used. Individual photons with equal 'temperature' (energy / wavelength / frequency) are identical regardless of source temperature. -
Byron Smith at 02:19 AM on 26 March 201110 key climate indicators all point to the same finding: global warming is unmistakable
Here is a possible 11th indicator: wave height. -
dana1981 at 02:19 AM on 26 March 2011Preventing Misinformation
johd #67 - not off the top of my head, no. You could find them as easily as I could. Google Scholar is your friend. -
Byron Smith at 02:18 AM on 26 March 201110 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
Oops - posted on wrong thread. The above link should be on ten indicators of a warming world. Sorry. -
damorbel at 02:16 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #838 in Response: [Dikran Marsupial] you wrote :- "I suspect there is a good reason the article talks of an "equivalent temperature" rather than simply a "temperature"." There is. Photonic energy is regarded as electromagnetic, although when they are created they take mechanical momentum from the emitting particle and give it (the momentum ) up when absorbed. But photons are not mechanical 'objects'; they have no mass so can't collide. Collision is how mechanical particles exchange momentum (thus energy), according to kinetic theory. Temperature is essentially a mechanical concept, that is why the energy of a photon gives it an 'equivalent' temperature. -
Byron Smith at 02:14 AM on 26 March 201110 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change
Here is a possible 11th indicator: wave height. -
dana1981 at 02:10 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
Ken L #4 - the Knox and Douglass paper you reference was a horrid example of cherrypicking. See Monckton Myth #1, Cooling Oceans for a better analysis of all available data. -
caerbannog at 02:03 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
"CO2 was higher in the past" In addition to the Sun being cooler, the Earth was hotter -- at times a *lot* hotter -- than it is now. According to Dr. Richard Alley (in his memorable 2009 AGU talk), sea surface temperatures approached 100F in the tropics during the Cretaceous Hothouse period. But along with 100F sea surface temperatures, you will get dangerous levels of atmospheric heat and humidity, as in dew points well over 90F. Once the dew-point hits 95 F or so, *everyone* caught outside in conditions like that for more than a few hours will die of heat-stroke. Everyone. To keep your body's core from overheating, your skin temperature needs to be kept at 95F or below. Get dew points near or above 95F, and this becomes impossible. If we woke up to a Cretaceous Hothouse climate tomorrow, billions of people would die of heat stroke long before they had a chance to starve to death. A CO2 hothouse climate is incompatible with human existence. This was covered nicely in this most excellent skepticalscience piece last year: Heat-stress-setting-an-upper-limit-on-what-we-can-adapt-to Now, how to summarize all this in a nice sound bite... Maybe something like this? "CO2 was higher in the past" --> "It was also hot enough to kill most humans in a few hours."Moderator Response: [DB] Hot-linked URL. -
BlueRock at 01:59 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
scaddenp: > Well David MacKay's "Sustainable Energy without the hot air" most certainly considers it. MacKay's book has been accepted with a puzzling level of passivity. Most people seem to have simply assumed it's an unbiased, factually infallible work. A few people think otherwise: * David MacKay's "...inflated demand figure of 490 GW is nowhere near our real energy demand, and has mislead people into believing the myth that Britain’s energy demand exceeds its renewable resource, whereas the reverse is true: our renewable resource is much greater than our energy demand." http://www.energynumbers.info/british-energy-demand-and-professor-mackays-estimate-of-it-an-explanation-of-the-differences * 'No Hot Air' About Renewable Energy While Blowing Smoke: David Mackay plays 'Brutus' to the Sun's 'Caesar'. http://www.justmeans.com/-No-Hot-Air-About-Renewable-Energy-While-Blowing-Smoke-David-Mackay-plays-Brutus-Sun-s-Caesar/27338.html -
damorbel at 01:59 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #839 Bibliovermis you wrote :- "Individual photons of equal wavelength are identical regardless of source temperature." If photons of 'equal wavelength' are 'identical' then they have the same energy also, which according to the link means they have the same 'temperature'. The only difference betwen a photon and a particle moving at less than c is that a photon must be absorbed to give up its energy. When you talk about 'curve matching' and 'spectrum' you are no longer talking about individual particles (including 'photons' as particles). These terms form part of statistical mechanics, the science of large collections of particles. But the concept of temperature is not confined to 'large collections of particles', temperature is an intensive property, meaning individual particles have a temperature also.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] No, it means they have the same "equivalent temperature", it does not imply they were emitted by bodies of the same temperature. -
Bibliovermis at 01:39 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
damorbel, That article is talking about curve matching an observed wavelength spectrum to a known emission profile at a given, not the temperature of an individual photon. Individual photons of equal wavelength are identical regardless of source temperature. -
IanC at 01:29 AM on 26 March 2011Why we have a scientific consensus on climate change
@ Arkadiusz 98 I don't really understand the point you are getting at in your first paragraph. Which is the "imperfect" model are you referring to? As DB said, when you are interpreting the result of the model, you should keep in mind what feedback the model captures. Is 1.94 degrees that far from the range? As someone pointed out elsewhere (don't remember where I read it), you should also keep in mind the model assumes that foliage increases, which is not necessarily true. Regarding the coal-fire plant paper: The paper says that while the emission of pollutants may induce a cooling effect in the short term, the control of pollutants down the road will remove this effect. And as far as I can tell the authors didn't suggest that the models don't capture the effect, it's just that the current way of quantifying the effect doesn't not reflect the regional variation. Regarding black death: So despite the long list of criticism of Scott and Duncan's hypothesis, despite the lack of concrete evidence, and despite the strong evidence of Y. pestis being the cause, you think Scott and Duncan overturned the consensus because you LIKED their writing? -
SNRatio at 01:24 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
I think there is a lot of unecessary speculation here. First, there is, technically, no need of using FF at all in the long run, even with current combustion technology. Bio-substitutes are already important in the fuel mix in several countries, and they can be produced entirely from inedible raw materials, so there is no inherent competition with food use. Rather the contrary whenever the use of waste like straw from grain production makes agriculture more profitable. Second, the price increase due to increasing FF energy use is a problem for using gas/oil as industry raw materials - it is no longer the case that raw material use of hydrocarbons is not able to pay for itself. So if we want to promote that use, we avoid using gas for power plants and oil for gasoline. But the increasing gas prices also makes bio-mass more competitive for raw materials, which is probably not a bad thing. Third, if we use energy efficiently, the current world population could probably have the western living standard. Space, not energy, restrictions is what will make adaptation of the western life style impossible. For example, in Norway, less than 1700 kWh/person is used for air transport, and the demand is almost surely higher than will be the world average. It's not that hard to produce that amount of biofuels if people are willing to pay, and most other transportation could be electrified. Fourth, FFs can surely help in the transition, and it is not their use in itself, but the enormous levels of CO2 emissions that constitutes the problem. And it is not true that development of renewable energy has to take an enormous amount of energy and raw materials, compared to other enterprises. For a large part, renewable energy is already used to produce equipment for renewable energy, and if this is done consciously, it can speed up development greatly. Gas and coal fired backup for renewable electricity production will be important for quite a while, but not indefinitely. Fifth, those who advocate the use of nuclear as necessary baseload with renewable energy have surely not studied the field very well. For example, in Europe, pumped hydro can easily do all the necessary regulation itself, if a Europe-wide network of offshore wind turbines is used as a basis, and simple, economically motivated, measures are taken. Like intelligent grids and photovoltaic generation balancing air condition use, domestic heat pumps run in daytime against accumulation tanks, etc. I reallly can't get it: People are thinking and talking about renewable energy as the distant and unknown future, whan actually today, ca 20% of EUs electricity is already renewable, and the fraction is rapidly increasing. At today's pace, EU renewable electricity (610 TWh) will bypass nuclear (1000 TWh) in less than twenty years. With no policy changes. And we know that time is working for the renewable alternatives. The potentials are huge, which is why we don't really have to care too much about the future total consumption - the most important thing is faciliating change. And in this respect we have already proven tools, like predictable feed-in tariffs. The important question for me is: Why don't we use them more? Even China has a generous feed-in tariff for wind power... -
damorbel at 01:23 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Re #835 & #386 If you find what I wrote in #833 unclear check this link and find - when a cosmologist talks - . when a cosmologist talks about the 'temperature' of a photon Then tell me what the problem is with 'the temperature of a photon'.Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] I suspect there is a good reason the article talks of an "equivalent temperature" rather than simply a "temperature". -
CBDunkerson at 01:12 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
Ken, you could try clicking on the link to the full writeup on this issue. Your suggestion that it puts the warming imbalance in question is incorrect. We know there is an imbalance because we have measured that directly. What we can't measure is where the extra energy is accumulating within the climate system. -
Phil at 01:12 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Damorbel @831 Each photon is created by an individual electron that gets its energy from the particle that where the electron is found. A photons energy is directly related to the temperature of the particle emitting it. This is incorrect. Molecules emit photons when they transition from one quantum state to a less energetic one. The frequency of the photon is determined by the difference in energy between the two states, as related by E = hv. The energies of the quantum states are fixed, determined by the atomic makeup of the molecule and the strength of the bonds between those atoms. Thus the frequency (and hence energy) of the photon is not determined by its temperature. Temperature will control the intensity of the radiation at a given frequency, since that will determine the proportion of molecular in excited quantum states that can decay. IR radiation is emitted by vibration of atomic nuclei within a molecule, Microwave by rotation of the molecule as a whole, and visible/UV radiation is emitted by electrons. Two photons of identical frequency are not "tagged" by their emitting source. However the spectrum (plot of frequency versus intensity) of a given molecule (especially a gas) is a sufficient finger-print to identify the substance uniquely, and the relative intensities of the various frequency bands can often be used to infer temperature of the emitting substance. -
Dikran Marsupial at 01:02 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Giles wrote: "as far as I know, burning one atom of C does always produce one molecule of CO2 , whatever you're doing with it." No, that would only be true if it burned cleanly and completely, which generally is not the case (e.g. carbon monoxide in car exaust fumes). Tar sands produce less energy per unit carbon than natural gas because you need to expend (vastly) more energy extracting it. I would have thought that was blindingly obvious. IIRC the reason for interest in tar sands and shale deposits has more to do with security of supply than economics, although that will change as more economic supplies are used up. -
Ken Lambert at 00:49 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
One of your items on the list of dud sceptic arguments is: "Trenberth can't account for lack of warming" and your answer is: "Trenberth was talking about the details of energy flow - not whether global warming was happening". Not quite true. Trenberth was highlighting the fact that in Aug09 when his now famous paper was published - he could not account for more than about 60% of the warming imbalance which was postulated by Hansen in 2005 (0.9W/sq.m) Since then; Knox and Douglas published a paper in Aug10 which showed that 2003-08 data for OHC contect was flat or slightly negative (cooling)for the top 700m and deep ocean of approx +0.09W/sq.m (Purkey & Johnson). Five Argo studies for 0-700m OHC by Willis, Loehle, Pielke, Douglas & Knox show **negative** OHC change, while von Schukmann (0-2000m) is the outlier showing +0.77W/sq.m. I would like know if the Knox & Douglas paper has been contradicted or its findings overturned by more recent studies. If not, then Trenberth's lack of warming is still with us, and in fact has gone from finding 60% of Hansen's 0.9W/sq.m to finding almost **none** of it. I would have thought this was a serious problem for the whole theory of a positive warming imbalance.Moderator Response:[DB] Trenberth discusses this issue directly here on this very recent and still active Skeptical Science thread: Teaching Climate Science; a post wholly devoted to Dr. Trenberth and his work.
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DSL at 00:47 AM on 26 March 2011The Libertarian Climate Conundrum
Not true, Poptech. You're referring to the market system as described by economic modes that rely on private property relations. Markets (and market solutions) can easily work within other modes, including those where the government has a hand in regulating the markets such that they perform optimally. A completely free market under private property relations would perform so inefficiently that people (having had the experience of government regulation in theory if not in practice) would demand some form of social regulation. The libertarian support of capitalism is one of the more bizarre philosophical moves of the last few centuries. Why encourage the concentration of real (economic) power in the hands of a small group of people who don't have your interests in mind? In other words, what's the difference between a government and a business run under the capitalist model? At least a democratic government has the ostensible job of serving the people (i.e. worrying about all that externalizing). The driving value of the business under capitalism is the generation of capital (i.e. finding ways to externalize and drive up profits). I remember a free market theorist, speaking in the documentary The Corporation, making the claim that if he could, he would turn air into a commodity (subject to the private property system). -
les at 00:42 AM on 26 March 2011A Plan for 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
Giles 58 Wrote "reducing" CO2 production means actually producing more usable energy and/or GDP per unit carbon. " les 56 wrote "terms of efficiency and reduced CO2 production" Efficiency means exactly producing more usable product per unit of input. In the case of oil, using less of it for the same output will reduce CO2 production. So I'm not at all sure what what your wrote adds. On the other hand, your remarks about coal, tar sand, natural gas etc. only goes to show that you did not understand what you wrote above... if it produces more energy per emitted unit of CO2, it's exactly what I wrote. Clearly you're so into objecting to what you think you see written (not, actually what is written) that you end up disagreeing with what you wrote your self! -
Alexandre at 00:36 AM on 26 March 2011A climate 'Gish Gallop' of epic proportions
This was truly a giant and thorough Gish Gallop (108 MB!). It even caused John to give up listing the arguments before finishing. That's a record breaker. This guy should have its name on a Gish Gallop scale - all other gallops would be measured as to what extent they compare to this one. -
Philippe Chantreau at 00:35 AM on 26 March 20112nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
Damorbel, you are digging yourself into a bottomless pit of nonsense. This sentence makes no sense, and wouldn't even if the syntax was correct: "Each photon is created by an individual electron that gets its energy from the particle that where the electron is found." You say this: "photon energy is given by the formula E = hv" That is, in fact, correct. Where in that formula is the temperature of the source hidden? In other words, what distinguishes the energy of a photon at a given frequency emitted by a source at a certain temperature from the energy of a photon at the same frequency coming from a source at a different temperature? There are only 2 terms to the energy of a photon, one is a constant. You are saying that, if the other is also kept constant, the product of the 2 can nonetheless be different according to a factor that is not part of the equation. Do you realize how idiotic that is?
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