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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Suggested supplemental reading:

The Climate Can't Afford Another Trump Presidency His approach to the environment: ignore it. by Zoë Schlanger, Science, The Atlantic Magazine, Dec 4, 2023

[Note: This article is part of “If Trump Wins," a project considering what Donald Trump might do if reelected in 2024. These articles also appear in the Jan/Feb, 2024 print edition of The Atlantic Magazine.

Eclectic at 17:07 PM on 20 December 2023

Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back

Rob Honeycutt @15 :- Yeah, I'd have to agree.

The internet allows chain reactions of Dunning-Kruger-Dunning-Kruger-Dunning-Kruger-Dunning-Kruger.

And in more bad news for this time of the year

. . . Elon Musk announced yesterday

. . . that he has registered the name Xmas.

(Sorry)

Rob Honeycutt at 13:28 PM on 20 December 2023

Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back

@14...

More evidence that the internet is dead.

Petra Liverani_1 at 12:59 PM on 20 December 2023

Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back

Unfortunately, the argument against so-called misinformation fails to acknowledge that scientists and doctors from the getgo of germ theory have argued against it. The term "misinformation" implies that people who do not have the right credentials are misguided, latching onto false claims when, in fact, scientists and doctors far better credentialled than those making the argument for misinformation have put forward arguments against germ theory in general and the covid pandemic specifically.

Essentially, the "misinformation" argument is a very big strawman argument that does not represent in any shape or form the wealth of argument against germ theory, virology and vaccinology from scientists and doctors dating from the the mid-1800s. Of course, the fact that someone has the right credentials doesn't necessarily mean anything as those with the same credentials are arguing for the pandemic but it should be at least recognised that it is not "ordinary" people who put up the argument first against the scientific methods used to isolate the virus, show contagion and devise testing, but scientists and doctors as credentialled as those arguing for "the science".

Mike Stone, author of the site ViroLIEgy presents argument from scientists and doctors who've argued against germ theory from the getgo and has also analysed numerous documents from at least as far back as the mid-1800s and shows clearly that the scientific work done to prove the existence of various pathogens does not stand up to scrutiny. And he's only one of quite a number.
https://viroliegy.com/

I think that Skeptical Science does themselves no favours arguing for the reality of a covid pandemic. I was a gungho climate activist for a number of years and I cannot say I've switched to believing that AGW is not the emergency claimed, however, when I see the calibre of the argument against the so-called covid misinformation, it certainly gives me pause ... and people I know who were as gungho as I about climate change have simply dropped it and are as convinced it's a scam just like covid.

As Kary Mullis said: "The scientist aims to prove their hypothesis wrong."

Where is the response to the argument from the doctors and scientists dating from the mid-1800s?

Moderator Response:

[BL] Unfortunately, the Skeptical Science Comments Policy does not allow people to create multiple accounts. Specifically:

You are not allowed to create a second identity to replace an identity that has had its posting rights revoked due to an inability or unwillingness to follow the Comments Policy.

Reincarnation of a previously-banned user deactivated.

One Planet Only Forever at 15:13 PM on 18 December 2023

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2023

I highly recommend the top highlighted article "The distortionary effects of unconstrained for-profit carbon dioxide removal and the need for early governance intervention", Grubert & Talati, Carbon Management.

It is very comprehensive. I learned a lot.

The chosen quote is a very good representation of the article.

I think the following quote of the concluding statement presents the many key points made in the article:

A call to action

The structure of the CDR sector is not yet final, though current trends suggest a strong bias toward an unconstrained for-profit market model. The nascency of the sector, including the lack of entrenched interests, widespread property claims, or legal liability means that there is still an opportunity to thoughtfully design a CDR sector that both protects the climate and structurally incentivizes more just outcomes. Although the need for CDR exists because of longstanding and ongoing injustices, the sector can be designed in ways that do not perpetuate the patterns that created the conditions that necessitate it. Particularly given the clear risk for significant interdependencies to develop between CDR and the fossil fuel industries, especially oil and natural gas, identifying and avoiding such patterns early will be necessary for long-term sustainability of CDR as an atmospheric function with high potential to provide substantial societal benefits, including by stabilizing and perhaps even repairing the climate, and by providing a pathway for some form of reparations by the most responsible. For now, the nascent CDR sector is reliant on public infrastructure and public funding, much of which has not even been disbursed as of this writing. This reliance suggests a clear pathway to public ownership and public management of CDR in the long term – but one that will quickly disappear as the sector matures. CDR has the potential to be both more successful and more just if it is not developed under an unconstrained for-profit regime. The time to act is now.

It is never too late to act to limit harm done. But in cases like the governing of CDR the opportunity for significant benefit is reduced the longer that global leadership fails to focus on effectively limiting the harm done and maximizing the benefit of the new development.

Leadership, in politics or business, that mistakenly believes that unjustified developed popular perceptions are worthy of being promoted, conserved, and excused can be very damaging.

One Planet Only Forever at 14:43 PM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

I wish to clarify that in my comment @12 I inserted the wording in square brackets in the part requoted below:

In effect, unconstrained for-profit governance of CDR allows for luxury consumption to colonize [and tragically abuse] an emergent global commons.

It is my attempt to indicate that this is a 'Tragedy of the Commons' matter.

One Planet Only Forever at 14:37 PM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

michael sweet,

I agree that focusing on building the renewable energy systems, along with reducing unnecessary ‘luxury’ ghg emissions, is the most rewarding action, from the perspective of the future of humanity. It is far better to do that than build partial fixes like Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) in an attempt to make ‘parts of unsustainable damaging systems – like the fossil fuel systems – appear to be ‘helping to achieve’ global net-zero.

In addition to wasting effort attempting to prolong an unsustainable damaging developed system with CCUS, getting those parts of the fossil fuel system to appear to be net-zero will require significant amounts of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR).

A serious concern is the use of CDR to make those parts of the ‘system that is still, all things considered, very damaging’ appear to be excusable/acceptable. The article I linked to in my comment @3 explains things well in the following quote from the part titled A CDR thesis:

CDR is a limited resource [Citation14]. For-profit goals inherently prioritize the activities for which some entity will pay the most, which are likely disproportionately related to compensatory removals in high wealth contexts. Allocation of more CDR to compensatory functions constrains availability for drawdown while increasing overall demand for CDR and CDR scaling. These incentives create a structural bias toward providing offsets to high-wealth emitters who can provide ongoing revenue streams, and away from offsets for low-wealth emitters or remedial drawdown activities. In effect, unconstrained for-profit governance of CDR allows for luxury consumption to colonize [and tragically abuse] an emergent global commons.

Another example of plans, not started to be built, for a major CCUS operation with an eventual demand to unnecessarily consume CDR resources is the action plans of the Alberta oil sands operators in Pathways Alliance. Refer to this linked CBC News article “Oilsands giants continue work on proposed $16.5B carbon capture project, despite lingering questions”

Alberta already has some CCUS, similar to the Middle East capture of CO2 and its use to produce more oil or gas. But a major collective CCUS project, subsidized by public funding, is the first part of the Pathways Alliance plan to be able to claim to be ‘net-zero’ producers of exported fossil fuels by 2050.

By 2050 there will hopefully be a very small market for exported fossil fuels. And that fossil fuel use would hopefully be restricted to assisting people who live less than basic decent lives.

The Alberta oil sands operators, with the support of government in Alberta and Canada, plan to compete to be exporting 5 million bpd or more in 2050 and beyond (being an exporter of choice). Other regions with already discovered exportable fossil fuel resources can be expected to do the same. Who would give up on such a potentially lucrative opportunity? And they will all potentially end up fighting to be among the few who end up with the least ‘stranded fossil fuel reserves’. Tragically, that marketplace for-profit competition to be the biggest winner will also consume massive effort and resources, public and private, to build CCUS facilities that will also end up ‘stranded’.

If, instead of being assisted to build CCUS, they were required to build DAC facilities, those DAC facilities could continue to be beneficial after the need for ‘dead-end fossil fuel extraction for export’ is substantially ‘transitioned away from’ (by 2050).

Global leadership focusing on rapidly building the transition away from fossil fuels, along with reducing unnecessary energy demand, will reduce the unnecessarily tragic damage being done to the global commons by making the ‘deservedly tragic future’ of all the ‘pursuers of maximum benefit from fossil fuels’ harder to deny.

guyho at 07:38 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

I should have added to my comment ... that I'm following my own advice by volunteering with a local Adopt-a-Stream organization in monitoring my local waterway. In doing so I'm meeting wonderful folks who are of the "regenerative systems" mindset (and expert in it) and learning from them. I'm also learning through one of my connections how he is aiding some of the indigenous peoples in the US state of South Carolina relearn some of their lost knowledge about their lands by teaching them about their native plants and geology, and how the systems of their land work. That amazes me.

guyho at 06:32 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

As I've been involved as a volunteer in helping researching and writing a paper with IEEE's Planet Positive 2030 initiative I've come to learn a great deal that I hadn't considered beforehand regarding approaches to addressing climate change:
1) Mass education - education that teaches/reminds us all to become planet stewards in the context of each our our own local environments.
2) Context matters - its important for people to learn within our own surroundings, to make it real. Dig our hands in our own soil, speaking figuratively AND LITERALLY.
3) Ensure all levels of education are trans-disciplanary. Societies, especially in Western affluent societies, are over-specialized resulting in intelligent, yet nonsensical solutions, similar to what Climate Adam describes with CCS.

What these simple steps aim for is helping people redirect their thinking of climate change as an abstract idea for which they feel compelled to be "for" or "against" it (what a waste of brain energy), rather to have them engage in the present, in their surroundings, learning how the planet works such that more of us appreciate the earth's interconnected systems, and how we're a part of those systems.

My thinking is the inertia of the gradual behavior change could be dramatic in improving the climate we all need to sustain our species. We might all get along better to boot.

nigelj at 05:51 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

M Sweets reasons sound quite convincing. There may be additional factors with CCS. The development of CCS applied to fossil fuels generation has been very slow. Probably a good thing given it is such a band aid solution. Perhaps it's partly because it requires politically unpopular subsidies. The public generally dislike the corporates getting tax payer money, in New Zealand anyway.

Or alternatively where CCS is incorporated into emissions trading schemes, this isnt working, because currently forests appear to provide lower cost offsets, and the free market dogma says allow the lowest cost alternative in the short term to prevail. Im not so sure the dogma makes complete sense, but it's good if its delayed CCS.

And renewable energy is now cost competitive so for aging coal fired plant it might make more sense to just build a wind farm. In comparison it looks like its much harder reducing the costs of CCS, which is not so surprising when you look at the technology and the processes.

Once we run out of land for forests, there may be serious interest in CCS, but by then, how many coal fired power stations will be left anyway?

One Planet Only Forever at 05:22 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

nigelj,

Agreed about potential limits for DAC operations. The research article I refer to in my comment @3 includes information regarding the limits of all the potential CDRs, not just the mechanical ones like DAC facilities.

CDR being a ‘limited’ opportunity is mentioned in the selected quote (stating that CDR is “limited resources”) presented on the Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2023 page.

If you do pursue a more detailed evaluation of the limits of DACs the article may provide helpful references for you, particularly in the section headed “CDR as a limited allocable resource”.

michael sweet at 03:59 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

A more reliable source states China will install 230 GW of wind and solar in 2023. This compares to 75 GW in Europe and 40 GW in the USA.

michael sweet at 03:11 AM on 18 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

It seems to me that to find the bottom line for carbon capture used to keep fossil fuel production going in the future all you have to do is look at the production facilities that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the oil majors have built or planned. As I understand it, they combined have about one large facility world wide. They recover CO2 from their refinery operations and pump that back into the ground to recover more oil, but that is not carbon capture and storage.

If the fossil fuel produceers were serious about carbon capture there would be many facilities planned or under constrution. These facilities take 5 years or more to build, and longer to plan and permit. The lack of proposed facilities indicates that this is the last gasp of the oil producers hoping everyone will look at the squirrel instead of installing solar and wind.

The only realistic solution is to build out wind and solar as fast as possible. If all fossil fuel subsidies were transferred to building renewable energy we would finish the system in a decade.

China alone will install over 300 gigawatts of renewable energy this year. If the entire world put in as much effort as China we would be in a much better place. The fossil plants China is building will be obsolete before they are commissioned.

Pierre-Ernest at 20:46 PM on 17 December 2023

At a glance - Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?

As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!

BaerbelW at 19:44 PM on 17 December 2023

It's methane

Please note: a new basic version of this rebuttal was published on December 17, 2023 which includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance

nigelj at 10:53 AM on 17 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

OPOF @4

Thank's for correcting the math. I think I know what happened. I scribbled some numbers and calcs. for different scenarious on a piece of paper and came back to it later, and transposed the wrong number into the computer. The main thing is the total is 925,000 DACs, or even more using the assumptions in your copy and paste.

We clearly need some sort of way of extracting CO2 from the atmosphere. But the thing I was trying to get across about the DAC industrial plant option is that 925,000 DAC's would clearly require a vast quantity of materials and energy, and over a 30 year span if its function is just to offset certain emissions. These plants are not small. Photo of worlds largest existing instillation here.

For comparison purposes the world currently has 600,000 bridges and about 24,000 coal fired power stations built over our entire history. The issue is whether the world has enough materials and spare energy for something like 925,000 DACS, - especially if they are all built over about 30 years. Remember we are also building renewable energy at the same time.

Known reserves of concentrated deposits key minerals are only expected to last another century or two at current rates of use. There are enough apparently to build out a renewable energy grid, (Jacobson) but add in 925,000 DAC's and its another matter entirely. I'm not a minerals depletion pessimist and we will probably discover new reserves, but it intuitively looks like we might not have enough materials to do everything.

The other options you list for extracting CO2 from the air ( biomass, soil sinks, enhanced rock weathering, marine storage, etc ) look interesting an dpotentially useful, and intuitively look less materials and energy intensive given natural processes do some of the work. But they are very land intensive. DAC does have the advantage that its a rapid extraction, and less land intensive and CO2 storage is permanent or close enough.

I might try and find or calculate some comparisons of materials and energy required if I have time.

One Planet Only Forever at 08:44 AM on 17 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

nigelj,

While reading the report I mention in my comment @3, I came back to re-read your comment.

There is indeed a concern about the scale of required DAC's. But the math appears to be:

currently 37 Gte of emissions
20% assumed to be impractical to stop is 7.4 Gt, not 4,625 Gte
Number of 8 kte DAC plants is 925,000 (as you correctly indicated)

The report I refer to @3 indicates a higher possible range of required Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in the following quote:

Thus far, estimates of how much CDR might be needed range from almost none up to more than 300 gigatonnes (Gt) cumulatively by 2050, or over 1,200 Gt cumulatively by 2100 [Citation10] – that is, up to about 10–15 GtCO2/year starting immediately, contingent on simultaneous rapid emissions mitigation, to meet 1.5° or 2 °C targets. Such estimates are purely mathematical, balancing positive with negative emissions: in theory, CDR could be used to counteract any emission (currently about 60 GtCO2e/year [Citation5]). As such, CDR requirements will be higher for less rapid and/or lower levels of emissions mitigation. To date, binding requirements for decarbonization that clearly articulate which emissions should be mitigated and which remain residual emissions to be addressed via CDR [Citation12] are rare, and CDR remains voluntary, contributing to a lack of clarity on necessary scope, scale, pace, and degree of resource competition.

Also note that the author's CDR includes many actions, not just mechanical DAC, as described in this quote:

Here, we define CDR to mean intentional, additional actions taken to capture CO2 from the atmosphere (either directly or via intermediaries like biomass or the ocean) and permanently store it such that the CO2 will not return to the atmosphere on time scales that at least match the lifespan of its impacts on the atmosphere and ocean [Citation5]. Commonly proposed approaches that are potentially capable of delivering CDR include (but are not limited to) direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS); biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS);Footnote1 direct ocean carbon capture and storage (DOCCS); enhanced rock weathering (ERW); forestry; and soil carbon management. Some storage mechanisms, particularly those that rely on biological sinks like forests and soils, are not permanent in the sense of matching the lifespan of CO2’s impacts. As such, we distinguish between CDR-capable interventions (e.g. an afforestation project) and actual CDR, which might entail consistent rehabilitation or replacement for projects where CO2 is stored for less than geologic time (and which necessarily imposes greater administrative burden for strategies requiring relatively short replacement intervals).

One Planet Only Forever at 11:11 AM on 16 December 2023

CO2 limits will harm the economy

PollutionMonster,

I agree that Jason Stanley's book, How Fascism Works, is recommended reading.

I recommended How Fascism Works, along with Timothy Snyder's book On Tyranny, in a comment I made in 2021 on a different SkS item, "The New Climate War by Michael E. Mann - our reviews". My comment there is @17 (linked here). Note that Bob Loblaw makes an additional excellent recommendation, for "The Authoritarians", on that comment string.

We are indeed in "Strange Daze" (Days misspelled intentionally) full of examples of trouble-makers succeeding in "Strange Ways". Maintain your focus on learning to be less harmful to others. And help others, including trying to help them learn to be less harmfully misled (admittedly you will encounter some Almost Lost Causes - People very deep into the delusions and fantasy beliefs of misinformation and disinformation).

PollutionMonster at 08:59 AM on 16 December 2023

CO2 limits will harm the economy

One Planet Only Forever @121

I am still reading your post and sources. I recommend a book by Jason Stanley. How fascism works explains how the Merchants of doubt borrow fascist strategies to spread disinformation and fearmonger. Combine this with the communist technique of the fire-hose of falsehoods and no wonder they are such a formidable adversary.

I also heard on NPR that we need to "phase out fossil fuels anything else is a distraction." From arguing with deniers a carbon tax is a snake pit argument like AGW deaths with too many ways to be derailed. Thank you for talking to me. :)

One Planet Only Forever at 03:16 AM on 16 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

The top item (the first Open Access Notable) in the Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2023 appears to be a comprehensive presentation of understanding related to and aligned with my comment @2.

I have only read the introduction of The distortionary effects of unconstrained for-profit carbon dioxide removal and the need for early governance intervention, Grubert & Talati, Carbon Management.

After I have read the full item I will make any further comments about how Carbon Dioxide Removal will hopefully be managed/governed to limit harm done to the future of humanity on Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2023 (based on reading the Intorduction, I expect to learn a lot and may have nothing more to add).

MA Rodger at 18:48 PM on 15 December 2023

Greenhouse effect has been falsified

Is it healthy to pander to crazy sock-puppet nonsense by discussing 'what-if' ideas when the sock-puppet is wedded to a 'surely it is' idea?

The idea that the existing GHE can be attributed to 50% water vapour, 25% cloud and this forced by 25% CO2 which thus attributes cloud as a warming agent does overlook the full impact of cloud on planetray albedo and which could be used to calculate cloud as a cooling agent.

The sock-puppet @176 suggests a cloudless Earth would see albedo drop from 30% to 15%, the latter being roughly the Moon's effective albedo which would suggest the Moon woud have an average temperature of 267K. However the measured temperature of the Moon averages at 201K and this because the Moon rotation is so slow that it sheds massive amounts of energy during its day with Moon equatorial temperatures reaching 390K.

Of course, the Earth spins fast enough to prevent such a large duirnal range and if there had never been CO2 to form a GHE, there would never have been oceans to slow it down from its 4 hour day back when the Earth-Moon began.

But unlike the Moon, there is a lot of water on Earth and the albedo of ice is high. That is reduced by the dust which would cover the ice on a GHE-free Earth but albedo would remain high, and perhaps higher than today. De Vrese et al (2021) suggests the albedo of 'meteoric ice' is 65% which, if the Earth's albedo, would indicate a 250K Earth and a GHE of 38K.

Rob Honeycutt at 00:54 AM on 15 December 2023

Greenhouse effect has been falsified

CTS @176... "The often-quoted 255K black body temperature of the earth is wrong..."

That which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

Eclectic at 17:46 PM on 14 December 2023

Greenhouse effect has been falsified

CTS @176 :

an iceball Earth (at 255K or 271K) has how many clouds?

Have you really thought this through . . . and published?

ClimateTruthSeeker at 16:43 PM on 14 December 2023

Greenhouse effect has been falsified

The often-quoted 255K black body temperature of the earth is wrong and the 33K GHE is overstated. This is due to the albedo being too high in the calculation which is meant to show what the temperature would be if the earth had no atmosphere at all.

However, the calculation falsely uses the albedo when an atmosphere exists, completely ignoring the fact that if there is no atmosphere, there are no clouds. Using a conservative estimate that 50% of albedo is attributed to clouds, this decreases the albedo from 0.3 to 0.15 resulting in a black body temperature of approximately 268K, reducing the GHE to 20K.

However, there would be further impacts on ice and water, and a more realistic albedo when there is no atmosphere at all is 10%, as others have postulated. This leads to a black body temperature of approximately 271K (-2.15C) and a theorized GHE effect of 17K, just over half of what was previously estimated.

Moderator Response:

[BL] Return of another sock puppet.

One Planet Only Forever at 15:21 PM on 14 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

Excellent point Nigel.

I would add that the lack of reduction of climate change impacts by the portion of the global population that benefit most from the harm being done has made 'Carbon capture from the atmosphere and locking it away' an essential action to bring the level of impact back down to 1.5 C.

The people today who have benefited most from the damage done to date owe the future of humanity a significant number of DAC facilities being built and beginning operation in the near future, no matter how expensive that is.

Excessive levels of impact, far beyond 1.5 C, are now almost certain. The accounting of credit for actions to limit the harm done during the curtailing of human caused climate change impacts, during the transition away from unsustainable developed activity, needs to exclude any 'credit' from DAC facilities (or extra trees planted). Those CO2 removal actions need to be understood to be a 'debt penalty owed' in addition to the Loss and Damages penalties owed.

nigelj at 12:31 PM on 14 December 2023

Climate Adam: The tough reality of Carbon Capture & Storage

Informative video as always. Its true that fitting CO2 capture technology to coal fired power stations isn't compelling because it just prolongs our reliance on coal fired power and the technology is plagued with problems. DAC (direct air capture) that removes CO2 directly form the air sounds helpful in dealing with areas of the economy that are hard to decarbonise. Or would it? Consider the maths:

We emit about 37 giga tons of CO2 globally each year.
Lets assume we use direct air capture to extract 20% of this each year, so 4,625 giga tons, because about 20% of the economy is really hard to decarbonise.
There are about 20 DAC facilities operating globally. The largest existing DAC facility extracts 8,000 tons CO2 each year. And this plant is large and complex and energy intensive.
This means you would need 925,000 DAC plants!!!!!

I feel the number speaks for itself. Yes you would not necessarily rely just on DAC but even so it would be a collosal challenge.

One Planet Only Forever at 04:12 AM on 14 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

MA Roger,

Thank you for pointing to alternative approaches to global warming scenario development. And thank you for pointing out those justified concerns about how the limited scope and method of presentation of an evaluation can be misleading.

In all honesty, I conceptually created the 3 situations to try to make the point that how we get to a global warming impact temperature value at 2100 and what is done after 2100 makes a difference. I hoped to present the understanding that there are a variety of ways of achieving a value of 2100 warming impact, with an ‘important differentiating consideration’ being what happens beyond 2100. And I simply chose to call the three created example situations ‘scenarios’.

I chose 1.7 C in an attempt to be brief but clear that I am not referring to any of the formally presented scenarios. I am pessimistic that the 2100 warming impact level of SSP1-1.9 is likely to be achieved. But I am hopeful that something better than SSP1-2.9 can be achieved. The important point is that there are many ways to conceptualize getting to the same 2100 impact result. And the variety of ways of getting that 2100 result, including what happens after 2100, are not ‘equivalent levels of harm reduction’.

I will add that my MBA included Organizational Behaviour and Design where I learned that it is incorrect to believe that a specific set of policy or operational rule changes can be certain to produce a desired ‘objective change’ (I believe this is part of the reason for the range of results for each IPCC scenario). New policies and rules may result in changes, or they may not, or they produce unanticipated changes.

When there is a need to change the collective behaviour of the members of any organization, including the organization of all of global humanity, a diversity of hoped to be helpful policy and rule changes can be conceptualized. And some of those changes would be based on improved understanding developed in the very hard to investigate fields of social, political, and economic behaviours where irrational behaviours can, and do, significantly occur. Irrational behaviour, including resistance to learning to be less harmful and more helpful to others, can especially occur due to the potential to benefit unjustifiably, especially from from secrecy (people less aware than they could be) or the popularity of misunderstanding (abusing the powerful science of marketing).

Therefore, when pursuing an objective correction of unsustainable or harmful developed behaviours by changes of policy or rules it is important to diligently monitor the changes that actually occur and revise the policy and rule changes as required to increase the chances of achieving the desired correction of collective behaviours. (hopefully accomplished by each COP session).

I have to add that when I got my MBA education in the 1980s it was rather rare to have the MBA program include ‘social and psychological’ considerations. Most MBA programs of the time, particularly the most prestigious programs, were focused exclusively on ‘maximizing making money matters most’, like Economics, Accounting, Finance, Efficiency of Operations and Material supply, Marketing, and Legalities related to financial activities and contracts.

MA Rodger at 19:46 PM on 13 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

One Planet Only Forever @3,

Where do you source your "set of scenarios with equal 2100 temperature values of 1.7 C" ?

I do note the use of IAMs to create scenarios & MAGICC to calculate the climatic outcomes does provide a route to developing such scenarios with a lot less effort than the SSP -> GCM approach. And I also note the rather worrying way such scenarios are presented simply as % cuts by 2050 along with a temperature rise. This is worrying as the cuts required over shorter and longer timescales are airbrushed away, this often along with the substitution of CO2 emissions timings for CO2(equivalent) emissions which can be very significant (as per AR6 WGIII Fig3.6 below). IPCC AR6 WGIII FIG3.6

nigelj at 05:38 AM on 13 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

The information on earth system sensitivity of 5 - 8 degrees C is very sobering. There are many accounts of what a 6 degree world is like easily googled and its very inhospitable for humans and other species. Because ESS develops on long time frames we might adapt to some extent, but that doesn't really make it any less inhospitable.

This is one authors depiction of a 6 degree world based on available research. The description is based on such a world developing over the next couple of centuries and a failure to curb emissions, but even if it takes thousands of years as a result of ESS, many of the outcomes would be similar.

"Special coverage is given to the positive feedback mechanisms that could dramatically accelerate climate change. The book explains how the release of methane hydrate and the release of methane from melting permafrost could unleash a major extinction event. Carbon cycle feedbacks, the demise of coral, the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and extreme desertification are also described, with five or six degrees of warming potentially leading to the complete uninhabitability of the tropics and subtropics, as well as extreme water and food shortages, possibly leading to mass migration of billions of people."

LINK

The IPCC seems to have focused most attention on warming and sea level rise rates by 2100. We have projections of around 3 degrees C of warming and worst case about 5 degrees, and SLR around 1 metre with a worst case 2 metres. The details on longer term trends several centuries into the future, or millenia into the future like earth system sensitivity, are buried away in their reports or not given much attention.

The IPCC have a chart buried in their reports showing a worst case of about 10 degrees C by about 2300 if equilibrium climate sensitivity turns out to be high and we just go on burning fossil fuels. Likewise by 2300 SLR could be well over 2 metres. This may be somewhat attenuated by the impacts of renewable energy already reducing projected coal use, but it would still be a big number and theres a lot of SLR already baked in even if we stop warming right now.

I wonder if this focus on year 2100 is a deliberate psychological strategy to focus on our immediate future. If they focused on the longer term trends there might be a risk that people would say why worry that won't effect me or my children.

However warming of for example 3 degrees by 2100 and one metre or so of SLR doesnt sound very scary to some people, while numbers like 5- 8 degrees longer term and SLR of 10 - 20 metres are obviously intuitively far more scary and certainly get my attention. Clearly we do need a focus on year 2100, for obvious reasons, because its in our lifetimes and adaptation would be very costly, but I wonder if a bit more attention on longer term time frames would have really shown people the huge scale of change we are facing.

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ubrew12 at 05:02 AM on 13 December 2023

At a glance - Does breathing contribute to CO2 buildup in the atmosphere?

Ian Plimer: "If Senator Wong were really serious about her science she would stop breathing..." Not unless Senator Wong is eating 'Coal-Coal-Puffs' for breakfast, Professor 'I'm-Really-Serious-About-My-Science'.

One Planet Only Forever at 03:40 AM on 13 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

Evan @2,

Agreed that the popularity of those ‘beliefs’ are a serious problem.

Those types of beliefs get some support from statements like the one included in this press release: “The giant caveat: Earth system sensitivity describes climate changes over hundreds of thousands of years, not the decades and centuries that are immediately relevant to humans.”

That correct statement regarding the developed highly influential, but undeniably harmful, attitude and restricted consideration of many people should always be paired with a clear statement of the unacceptability of any person in leadership, or of high status, thinking that way.

As an example, the likely global average surface temperature in 2100 may seem like a decent measurement point given the increased uncertainty of modelling into the future. But it is understandably not an appropriate measure of success. Here are a set of scenarios with equal 2100 temperature values of 1.7 C (not the desired 1.5 C, but maybe considered to be well below 2.0 C):

Human rates of impacts that would increase temperature are ended without temperature impacts exceeding 1.7 C. And sustainable measures are being increasingly implemented that will reverse previous impacts. The future temperature is not expected to increase above 1.7 C and will actually be reduced beyond 2100, including confidence that there will not be increasing surface temperature due to long term potential warming feed-backs.
Human impacts peaked above 2.0 C before 2100 and have been reversed and removed back down with efforts to further reduce impacts being curtailed. Less certainty that there will be no feedback warming after 2100. Part of that uncertainty regarding future warming is uncertainty about the long term impacts of the peak temperature value and duration of the higher temperatures.
Human impacts have been been successfully limited so that the total warming by 2100 is 1.7 C. But impacts are continuing to increase after 2100.

Those 3 scenarios are not ‘equally successful’ at sustainably improving the future for humanity. Only the first one could be considered to be ‘real success’. The others are just perceptions of ‘equal success’.

Note that adaptations to the impacts of climate change are 'not improvements of the future' They are attempts to maintain developed ways of living. And repair of climate change damage is also 'attempts to maintain developed stuff'. That leads to the understanding that developed perceptions of poverty reduction and perceptions of living better than a basic decent life are unsustainable if they rely on harmful unsustainable actions like the use of fossil fuels (even abated use of fossil fuels is unsustainable).

The challenge is being clear about what developed perceptions do not deserve to be maintained as the developed harming of the future of humanity is corrected.

Evan at 01:07 AM on 13 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

Some say that current CO2 emissions have no effect on future warming (global warming, climate change deniers).

Some say that past CO2 emissions have no effect on future warming (no-warming in the pipeline climate modelers).

This study suggests that maybe we are not in as much control of the environment as these other two groups of people would like to think.

MA Rodger at 19:54 PM on 12 December 2023

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44

Dessler's post does rather hedge its bets by suggesting it might be "due to natural variability persisting over an extended period" which will at some point come to an end (so as per the 2007-12 slowdown but in reverse). But he also points to the recent deep La Niña which may be amplifying the impact of the less-than-massive El Niño.

The ENSO indices do show the build-up to present weak El Niño conditions were unusually preceded by strong La Niña cinditions which had been, if anything, strengthening through the period rather than, as is usual, weakening as El Niño conditions approach. (The MEI perhaps shows this situation best.) Yet the big 1997-98 El Niño also strengthened quite suddenly and showed nothing like this 2023 bananas situation.

MEI el nino profiles

The bananas (sudden appearance of an additional +0.2ºC in the global average temperatures) won't be some sudden forcing as there is no sign of anything (or things) approaching the required force. That means we have a natural wobble.

But is that wobble reversing something that has been shielding the impacts of AGW and so it won't reverse? Or is going to abate in coming months/years? Dessler looks to the climate models as suggesting it is the latter. But the question is still an open one!!

scaddenp at 14:35 PM on 12 December 2023

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44

My 2c. Very roughly, Ocean heat content increases in La Nina, decreases in El Nino (transfer heat to atmosphere). 3 La nina's in a row means more than usual heat in ocean (look at the marine heat waves). I'd say with transition to El Nino, more than usual heat is coming out of ocean to atmosphere, so higher than the value calculated from regression. It would imply that other triple La Nina's should have had above average impact on temp during following El Nino too. If I had time, I would check. On other hand, if it was that clear cut, I am sure Dessler would spotted it.

michael sweet at 11:31 AM on 12 December 2023

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44

This is the correct link to the climate brink

michael sweet at 11:28 AM on 12 December 2023

2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44

Just Dean,

Andrew Dessler, a renowned climate scientist, has a post on Climate Brink about this years heat. He discusses the items we have covered. He thinks it is not the volcano. Climate change, El Nino and aerosols are not enough to explain the extreme heat this year. He seems to suggest random shifts in climate for most of the heat. He expects it will be explained in a few years.

The Climate Brief is always informed and easy to read.

One Planet Only Forever at 08:47 AM on 12 December 2023

A New 66 Million-Year History of Carbon Dioxide Offers Little Comfort for Today

This study is an important improvement of understanding. But previous leadership actions fighting against limiting the harm being done to the future of humanity is not excused by this improved understanding only now becoming available.

As an engineer with an MBA I am focused on developing sustainable improvements by learning to limit harm done and protect others from harm. I appreciate that my developed perspective is currently not the developed norm. However, for humanity to have a lasting improving future on this amazing planet, the pursuit of learning to be less harmful and more helpful to others needs to become the dominant governing understanding.

Being a civil/structural engineer, the changes of climate conditions affecting the performance of structures and surface water run-off systems has been my immediate concern. And having an MBA has helped me understand that the pursuit of profit can develop many damaging results, including powerful resistance to correcting developed behaviour. Focusing on obtaining monetary reward, or other perceptions of status, can tempt people to compromise the pursuit of limiting harm done. And it can cause people to make up excuses for benefiting from harm done.

The following quote from the press release highlights a major issue that should concern everyone: “The giant caveat: Earth system sensitivity describes climate changes over hundreds of thousands of years, not the decades and centuries that are immediately relevant to humans.”

Saying that the distant future of humanity on this ‘potentially only amazing planet humans can survive and thrive on’ is not ‘immediately relevant to humans’ is a very dangerous thing to do even if that belief is ‘more the norm these days’. It excuses the developed callous lack of concern for ‘Others and the future’ that currently significantly compromises ‘human considerations’. It excuses the ‘discounting of future climate change impacts’ to justify being more harmful today than is ‘necessary for people to live basic decent lives’.

It is important to understand that the engineering application of science requires the pursuit of significant confidence that harmful results will not occur (a very low probability of harmful results). That is what keeps bridges and buildings standing and planes in the air. That is very different from a scientific reluctance to state the potential that harm is being done until there is significant confidence regarding the specifics of the harm.

A responsible engineer discovering that something is potentially harmful should immediately act to protect against the potential harm until there is confidence allowing them to ensure the safety of the item of concern. The continuation of the ability to live as a sustainable part of the ecosystem of this amazing planet needs to be the governing human consideration. How rich or successful some people are perceived to be is rather irrelevant.

I understandably extend my ‘engineering concerns’ to the improvement of the distant future of humanity (developing sustainable improvements), even if that is to the detriment of created ‘perceptions of advancement at this immediate moment in time’. Doing something that is considered to be ‘beneficial today’ but may be significantly harmful in the distant future is unacceptable, especially if the benefits of the harmful activity cannot continue to be enjoyed in the future.

Fossil fuel use is a doubly unacceptable activity. It produces accumulating harmful results, now and into the future. And it cannot continue to be benefited from in the future that it harms. Any ethical argument for ‘the benefits of fossil fuel use’ is understandably limited to very narrow applications like ‘temporary actions that exclusively improve the life circumstances of people who suffer less than basic decent lives’.

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