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Comments 951 to 1000:
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Eclectic at 06:13 AM on 18 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
OnePlanet @661 : yes.
Now we await Wavefunction's first piece of "justified criticism".
Patience may be required ...
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:03 AM on 18 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
Wavefunction @659 raises an important point.
As a professional engineer with an MBA I have pursued developing a well justified understanding, open to being improved by justified criticism, of what is required to develop sustainable improvements.
Everyone should welcome and engage in learning based on ‘justified’ criticism of developed beliefs and justified criticism of poorly justified or unjustified criticism. That is how ‘scientific understanding improves’, including how this site’s content has constantly improved. It is also how businesses and political groups can learn to be more sustainable (less harmful and more helpful actions have more of a future).
The persistence, and in some cases the tragic growth or regrowth, of unjustified confidence in harmful misunderstandings is an undeniable problem. An aspect of that problem is the unjustified angry responses to sensible efforts to increase awareness and improve understanding that help people learn to be less harmful and more helpful members of humanity.
Correction of tragically popular misunderstandings, especially misunderstandings regarding harmful profitable activity (including excusing or denying harm done because of perceived benefits), is essential to the development of sustainable improvements for the benefit of all children now and into the distant future.
Learning about required corrections of thoughts and beliefs is also necessary for the successful repair of the damaging results of the popularity and profitability of ‘lack of awareness and misunderstandings’. Popular and profitable lack of awareness and misunderstanding can be very resistant to ‘justified criticism that would improve and correct it’.
I welcome justified criticism to improve that understanding.
Moderator Response:[BL] I disagree that Wavefunction has raised any interesting points. He starts with an insult, continues with name-calling, and makes a wild claim that none of the "dozens of comments" he has read (on a topic that had 658 comments on it before he posted) "gives a straight answer" to some unspecified "question that's at the heart of the entire theory of human driven climate change".
- He's read a few % of the comments - seemingly only on this one thread, without looking at any of the other many sources of information on this web site.
- He can't be bothered to say which ones, or what they lack.
- He can't be bothered to tell us what he thinks the "question ...at the heart..." is.
- He thinks that moderators applying the Comments Policy are "telling people what they can and can't say". (The Comments Policy tells people how they are expected to behave - not the positions they are allowed to argue.)
The comment deserved to be deleted in its entirety, due to it's lack of anything specific, its tone, and its numerous violations of the policy - but it also deserves to be left up for anyone that reads it to see what Wavefunciton's behaviour is.
You have used Wavefunction's comment to make what are interesting and valid points. Reasonable discussion, justified criticism, avoiding angry unjustified response. All are worthwhile goals. The Comments Policy begins with:
The purpose of the discussion threads is to allow notification and correction of errors in the article, and to permit clarification of related points. Though we believe the only genuine debate on the science of global warming is that which occurs in the scientific literature, we welcome genuine discussion as both an aid to understanding and a means of correcting our inadvertent errors. To facilitate genuine discussion, we have a zero tolerance approach to trolling and sloganeering.
Genuine discussion requires a willingness to provide clear communications. Wavefunction hasn't even come close.
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Eclectic at 21:27 PM on 17 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
Wavefunction @659 :
Hmm. Now that you have vented your emotions
. . . perhaps you would be so kind as to make an On-Topic comment that is interesting and relevant.
Or try posting at the WattsUpWithThat blogsite, where about 80% of comments are venting & echo-chambering of non-science.
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wavefunction at 18:06 PM on 17 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
What an absolute joke of site this is. This isn't science, its a bunch of clowns that can't handle critisism and a hall monitor running around telling people what they can and can't say. Its no wonder that out of the dozens of comments I've read on this thresd, not ONE, gives a straight answer to the question that's at the heart of the entire theory of human driven climate change. You and those you parrot better be right.
Moderator Response:[BL] If your goal is to get banned, so you can go and tell your friends that Skeptical Science is unwilling to listen to your wisdom, then you are off to a good start. You'll save us all a lot of time if you just post a comment saying "please ban me".
If your goal is to actually discuss any of the science, then you actually have to be willing to make a specific, supported, scientific statement that is related to the discussion topic of the original post, then you'll need to read and follow the Comments Policy. There is a link to the policy above the box you used to post your comment.
The first two statements of the Comments Policy are:
- All comments must be on topic. Comments are on topic if they draw attention to possible errors of fact or interpretation in the main article, of if they discuss the immediate implications of the facts discussed in the main article. However, general discussions of Global Warming not explicitly related to the details of the main article are always off topic. Moderation complaints are always off topic and will be deleted
- Make comments in the most appropriate thread. Some comments, while strictly on topic, may relate to issues discussed in more detail in some other thread. Extended discussion of those points should be carried out in the more appropriate thread, with link backs to reference the discussion as needed. Moderator's directions to move discussion to a more appropriate thread should always be followed.
...but there are a couple more that you have violated in your brief rant. Surely someone of your great intellect will be able to read the policy and identify which rules you have broken.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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BaerbelW at 05:11 AM on 17 March 2024It's a natural cycle
Please note: the new basic version of this rebuttal was published on March 16, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:24 AM on 17 March 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
Note that in my comment at 1 the link to the report is the bolded title of the report Artificial Intelligence Threats to Climate Change.
I forgot that in these comments a bolded text string does not stand out as a link.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:20 AM on 17 March 2024Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
The link for the second item (description repeated below) highlighted from the Government/NGO section does not work for me:
The AI Threats to Climate Change, Climate Action Against Disinformation, Check My Adds, Friends of the Earth, Global Action Plan, Greenpeace, and Kairos:
The following links work for me:
Link to the Climate Action Against Disinformation webpage introduction and summary of the report (with a button linking to the report)
Link to the report from the CAAD introduction page: Artificial Intelligence Threats to Climate Change (a Friends of the Earth website location for the report)
Thank you OPOF. Fixed!
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Charlie_Brown at 02:31 AM on 17 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
The mention of quantum mechanics warrants further discussion so one is not baffled or misled by a misrepresentation of it. Besides, the science is fascinating, and the concept is not that hard to understand. All molecules above absolute zero have internal energy. They vibrate, bend, and stretch in a limited number of ways that depend on their structure and ability to interact with electromagnetic radiation. Absorption and emittance of a photon changes the internal energy level by a discrete amount, which gives rise to discrete absorptance/emittance lines. CO2 is a linear, non-polar molecule that can stretch symmetrically and asymmetrically, but also polarizes temporarily when it bends. When molecules in the atmosphere have absorptance/emittance lines that fall within the wavelength range of IR at moderate temperatures by the Planck distribution, they become greenhouse gases. Discrete lines for CO2 and H2O are illustrated in Figure 3 in Introduction to an Atmospheric Radiation Model.
One more comment about the “quantum process” which is described incorrectly by RBurr @ 654. CO2 is “additive” and increasing. Thus, it is affecting the accumulation term in the global energy balance. -
Charlie_Brown at 09:26 AM on 16 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
RBurr @ 654
1) CO2 lags temperature rise at the end of an ice age because CO2 evolves from ocean waters as the temperature rises. This is Henry’s Law. In that case, temperature rises first due to the Milankovitch Cycles. Note that ice age temperatures cool slowly and warm rapidly. Modern CO2 emissions are different because they come from burning fossil fuels. Therefore, temperature rises as a result of CO2. Cause and effect in both cases is clear in both cases, and different in both cases.
2) The quantum mechanical mechanism on IR radiation that explains the greenhouse warming theory has been proven. It is based on fundamental principles of energy balance and radiant energy transfer and has been verified by massive amounts of data, cross-checks, and validation.
3) The Earth’s energy “balance” is fundamental:
Input = Output + Accumulation
Output is reduced as greenhouse gases increase. Thus, energy accumulates.
4) Your description of quantum mechanics does not make sense. Quantum mechanics is fundamental to the specific frequencies (i.e., wavelengths) that are absorbed and emitted by CO2, CH4, and H2O. There is a huge amount of energy carried by IR radiation. It is naturally emitted (not dissipated) and lost to outer space by IR. By the overall global energy balance at steady state:
Input solar = Reflected solar + Emitted IR
Accumulation is zero at steady state, as before CO2 emissions of the industrial revolution.
5) The hot object in this case is the sun at about 5800 Kelvin. That is more than hot enough to warm the earth. The temperature profile is 5800 K of the sun to 288 K (60F) of the Earth 217 K of the lower stratosphere to 2 K of outer space. Increasing CO2 reduces the energy loss to space at specific wavelengths (e.g., approx. 13-17 microns). The absorptance/emittance lines in that range increase, meaning that energy is emitted from a cold 217 K instead of a warm 288 K. This upsets the energy balance. The balance is restored by accumulating energy until the surface temperature increases enough to make up the reduction by CO2. Nothing about this violates either the 1st or 2nd law of thermodynamics. Some mistake the 2nd law by describing the energy balance being at steady state, but the steady state was upset by increasing GHG.
6) Neither the Milankovitch Cycles nor the Schwabe Cycles (sunspots) explain the cause of modern global warming. The long-term Milankovitch Cycles have not been in a period of significant change for the last 12,000 years after warming from the last ice age. Measured radiosity data from the sun show that short-term Schwabe Cycles have not changed significantly either and do not explain modern warming. -
Bob Loblaw at 01:16 AM on 16 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
Ah, RBurr's comment at 654 is indeed an odd duck. While demanding "proof", he is badly short on providing any "proof" for his wild assertions. He alludes to "new research" (Where? By who? What publication?), but then just asserts a bunch of old misconceptions.
RBurr's assertions on "quantum mechanics" can be roughly lumped into a denial of the conservation of energy, a gross misunderstanding of the concept of temperature (individual molecules don't have temperature, and temperature is not a property of radiation), with a mix of "violates the second law" bunk.
There are other threads here at SkS where such topics can be discussed (and have been, at length).
- The 2nd law myth. (number 62 on the list of most common myths).
- Has the Greenhosue Effect been falsified? (number 65 on the list)
- and an example of how a cooler object can indeed lead to additional heating of a warmer object. (The Dynamics of the Green Plate Effect.)
A little learning is a dangerous thing;
drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
and drinking largely sobers us again.Alexander Pope, An essay on Criticism
English poet & satirist (1688 - 1744) -
Eclectic at 20:26 PM on 15 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
RBurr @654 : Your ideas are interesting, to some extent.
But your ideas are based on semantics, not on physics. And sadly, the Greenhouse Effect cannot simply be talked away.
Education is the path forward for you. Good luck !
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RBurr at 08:51 AM on 15 March 2024CO2 lags temperature
The analogy was cute, that the observation that CO2 rises lag temperature rises, means that the Temp rise causes the CO2 rise, is a bit like saying that chickens do not lay eggs because they have been observed to hatch from them. I would submit that, by the same token, opining that CO2 increases cause global warming is a bit like saying that chickens to not hatch from eggs, because they they’ve been observed to lay them.
This all suggests (as inferred) a co-dependent process.
However, this overlooks the same thing that MOST public blogs overlook, and that is the quantum mechanical mechanism on IR radiation (per greenhouse warming theory) has never been proven, and is actually false. New research indicates the fundamental error in the theory, presumes that Heat is ADDITIVE (eg. The Earth’s energy ‘budget’). The quantum process for Thermal transference is not additive. It is a function of frequency resonance. This is why microwave ovens work. Solar heating occurs because the spectrum of frequencies included in sunlight (which reaches the Earth’s surface) sets the maximum temperature which the recipient object may reach. An object in an oven set to 400 degrees will never reach 500 degrees no longer how long it is in the oven, because heat transference is not additive over time. The low energy IR waves received by CO2 molecules will naturally dissipate into the atmosphere with negligible net effect upon the atmosphere, but will never cause planetary ‘heating’ because, per thermodynamic law, no object can heat something beyond the temperature it possesses. Irradiated CO2 molecules can never heat the earth beyond the temperature frequency that already exists within the earth, which generated the IR light waves to begin with. IR Radiation does not raise the temperature of the Earth. The greenhouse warming theory is flawed. THAT is why the universally accepted historical record shows zero correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and average temperature over the entirety of the past 4 Billion years. Zeroing in on the last 400k or 800k years, and pointing to an anomaly amounts to cherry picking, which disregards the other dynamics in play, such as Milankovitch Cycles. Note: Ozone depletion CAN increase surface temperatures because the range of UV frequencies that reach the surface is expanded. -
One Planet Only Forever at 05:14 AM on 12 March 20242024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #10
Jim Eager.
I agree, with a slightly different perspective.
A better question is: How much of the harmful public misunderstanding and lack of care about the future is due to the deliberate development and dissemination of disinformation by the likes of Exxon anti-leadership and the political misleaders who chose to join the anti-leadership team effort?
I use the term anti-leadership because, from an ethical perspective, leadership obviously needs to responsibly pursue and promote improved awareness and understanding of what is harmful and unsustainable, learning and teaching how to be less harmful and more helpful. As justification for that perspective I would suggest that any organization that does not have that type of leadership may temporarily appear to be successful. But it will ultimately be unsustainable.
I learned that understanding in the marketing course of my MBA education in the 1980s. That course began with the professor stating we would learn about the science of marketing . We would learn about the powerful ability to fool many people some of the time by being misleading. But we would also learn that abusing that 'marketing science knowledge' should not be done because it would ultimately be unsustainable. (Also, the Ethics course started with the professor stating that there would be a lack of case study examples of 'ethical business behaviours'. Admittedly some case study examples of ethical leadership have developed since the 1980s).
Moderator Response:[PS] Slight edit to fix an unfortunate typo.
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Jim Eager at 04:43 AM on 12 March 20242024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #10
Sorry, but actually Exxon CEO Darren Woods may be right that consumers are too stupid to understand or want sustainable energy supplies, or at least too uninterested or too unself-aware.
If you want evidence you just need to get out more.
I wish I had a dollar for every small p**** in a big black tricked-out pickup truck that I've seen floor it to get around my hybrid EV just to beat me to the red light, and then floor it again when the light turns green, or push that 3 1/2 ton behemoth along at 80 on the highway.
You want consumers to understand or want sustainable energy supplies?
Double or even triple gasoline prices and maybe, just maybe it will get their attention.
Not that this absolves Exxon's Woods and his ilk one iota, mind you.
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BaerbelW at 20:25 PM on 10 March 2024There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on March 10, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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John Mason at 01:28 AM on 9 March 2024At a glance - What has global warming done since 1998?
While working on a vaguely-related project I updated this rebuttal AGAIN, despite it being less than 12 months old, because 2023 smashed temperature records. Depressing business this, sometimes! No need to do anything with this post as it's timestamped. Anyone wanting to read the updated version will find it here:
https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm -
Evan at 23:48 PM on 8 March 2024All this climate data is wild
There are even data loggers for tracking the migration of Monarch butterflies (read here).
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Evan at 21:34 PM on 8 March 2024All this climate data is wild
wilddouglascounty@3 Good question. The pack was too small to contain continual broadcast. It needed to be small for a Purple Martin to carry it. It stored GPS data on a chip and could only be retreived were the bird found again, as it was in our case.
From what I've read, the current backpacks are able to transmit live so that the bird does not have to be caught.
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wilddouglascounty at 03:23 AM on 8 March 2024All this climate data is wild
2/Evan,
You got me wondering: were they able to retrieve the data from the backpack? Or did they already gathering the data as the bird flew around?
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Evan at 21:40 PM on 7 March 2024All this climate data is wild
While cleaning out our Purple Martin house one spring, I found a Purple Martin that had unfortunately died. I noticed it was tagged, and emailed the tag number to the US Department of Natural Resources. They politely thanked me for the information.
A day later I got a very excited email from them asking if there was an antenna protruding from its back. Sure enough, there was. A bird as small as a Purple Martin had been fitted with a small backpack to gather data on its migration, tracking its flight from Minnesota all the way down to Central America and back.
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BaerbelW at 07:15 AM on 7 March 2024All this climate data is wild
This article brings back memories from almost 10 years ago, when I was lucky enough to get in touch via email with scientists doing just this kind of research, tagging elephant seals in Antarctica with sensors to gather data. Here is the link to the resulting blog post:
Seal of approval - How marine mammals provide important climate data
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gerontocrat at 03:48 AM on 7 March 2024At a glance - Human activity is driving retreat of arctic sea ice
And some unusual evidence on the NW Passage hot off the press from "The Guardian" newspaper.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/06/gray-whale-nantucket-extinction
Gray whale sighted off New England 200 years after species’ Atlantic extinction
Scientists confirm cetacean’s presence but cite impact of climate change which has made North-west Passage ice-free in summerScientists have confirmed the presence of a whale off New England that went extinct in the Atlantic Ocean two centuries ago – an exciting discovery, but one they said that illustrates the impact of climate change on sea life.
Researchers with the New England Aquarium in Boston found the gray whale while flying 30 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, on 1 March. The whale, which can weigh 60,000 pounds (27,215kg), typically lives in the northern Pacific Ocean.
The gray whale vanished from the Atlantic Ocean by the 18th century, but there have been five observations of the animal in Atlantic and Mediterranean waters in the last 15 years, the aquarium said in a statement. The whale found this month was probably the same animal spotted in Florida late last year, the aquarium said.
The researchers who found the animal off Massachusetts said they were skeptical at first, but after circling the area for 45 minutes, they were able to take photographs that confirmed it was indeed a gray whale.
“I didn’t want to say out loud what it was, because it seemed crazy,” said Orla O’Brien, an associate research scientist with the Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium.
Scientists said they were thrilled to see the animal, but its presence probably has to do with the warming of the planet. The North-west Passage, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Arctic Ocean in Canada, has lacked ice in the summertime in recent years, they said."
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:04 PM on 6 March 20242024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #09
Efforts to fight disinformation and the resulting tragic popularity of harmful misunderstanding, especially the application of Cranky Uncle beyond the important climate science matters (as highlighted in The Story of the Week), are highly valuable (tragically not valued by all leadership competitors). They help promote learning to improve the future for all children on this amazing planet which may be the only viable place for children to continue to be born to live on as sustainable parts of an amazing robust diversity of life. (tragically not the objective of all leadership competitors)
This new CBC News article: After Mulroney, being a 'green' PM got a lot tougher presents a history lesson about the need for the development of Cranky Uncle, and more like it, to try to counter-act tragically popular and profitable harmful developments and resistance to correction of damaging unsustainable misunderstandings over the past 30 years.
The CBC story is about a major political group in Canada, a nation that many people would currently mistakenly consider to be quite advanced. Before the early-1990s the group that Mulroney led pursued ‘learning to develop improvements for all children, including leadership actions to limit Canada’s ghg emissions’. But the group was rapidly captured (taken-over) by interests that oppose leadership actions that are being learned to be required to ‘develop sustainable improvements for all children’. (Note that the related concern about ‘harmful capture’ of potentially helpful learning institutions is highlighted in Academic capture in the Anthropocene: a framework to assess climate action in higher education, Lachapelle et al., Climatic Change:, the 3rd open access notable item on Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2024.)
The following quote from the CBC article highlights this tragic transition:
Mulroney's Progressive Conservative government also enacted the Canadian Environmental Protection Act to manage toxic substances in the environment, and the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act to review the environmental impacts of major projects.
It established the International Institute for Sustainable Development — still a leading voice on global environmental policy — and launched the National Roundtable on the Economy and the Environment (NRTEE), an expert advisory body that published analysis until Stephen Harper's Conservative government abolished it in 2013.
The Harper Conservatives were what the Mulroney PCs had transformed into. And the opposition to learning to be less harmful and more helpful has increased in the Conservative Party of Canada since Harper stopped being its leader. See the following string of quotes from the article:
In 1990, the federal government released "Canada's Green Plan," a 174-page statement of intent to deal with a host of environmental problems, including global warming. That plan set a lofty goal of stabilizing Canada's greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2000 — the first of several targets Canada would announce and fail to pursue seriously between 1990 and 2015.
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The Green Plan touted the possibility of pursuing an emissions "trading" program — what we would now call a cap-and-trade system, one of two primary methods for establishing a price on harmful emissions."There is evidence that a market-based approach to the problem can be quicker, more efficient and more effective in reducing emissions and the costs of achieving these reductions," the PC government wrote.
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It would be another 29 years before the federal government [Liberal-led] finally applied a "market-based" approach to carbon emissions, through the current government's carbon tax. But now the future of that policy is very much in doubt — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, Mulroney's [and Harper’s] political heir, has loudly and repeatedly vowed that a government led by him will "axe the tax."This tragic transition of a major political group that was ‘striving to be more helpful and less harmful’ into ‘harmful disinformation producers’ trying to ‘oppose and delay learning to develop improvements for all children’ can be seen to have happened (still happening) in many other nations.
The undeniably high-value leadership goal of ‘Learning to improve the future for all children’ is tragically opposed by special interest groups with ‘Other interests they consider to be important enough (to them) to justify being damaging rather than improving the future for all children’.
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scaddenp at 04:55 AM on 5 March 2024Climate Adam: Are food influencers wrong about climate change?
Given long term nature of experiment, I wasnt expecting much in updates. I am not in communication.
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ChangeTheName at 11:20 AM on 4 March 20242024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #09
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
The term "climate change" is an Orwellian BENIGN and VAGUE term for a civilization threatening DISEASE.
A medical approach to naming this disease would result in a term such as "Atmospheric Carbon Poisoning".
Atmospheric is the LOCATION of the POISON
Carbon Gases (CO2 and CH4) are the NAME of the primary POISONS.
Poisoning is an unequivocal declaration of dangerous toxicity.
A skeptical scientist should think about telling the public the TRUTH and not shy away from naming the disease like a good scientist would. Climate change is clearly vague and inadequate. The generally public is woefully ignorant about this DISEASE.
https://www.change.org/p/change-name-of-climate-change-to-atmospheric-carbon-poisoning?recruiter=261487266&recruited_by_id=d2d62b10-d0fa-11e4-b3f4-bd4f0f527c9b&utm_source=share_petition&utm_campaign=share_petition&utm_term=petition_dashboard_share_modal&utm_medium=copylink&utm_content=cl_sharecopy_37915781_en-US%3A3
Moderator Response:[BL] When you signed up for an account here at SkS, you were expected to read and follow the Comments Policy. Two of the items in that policy are:
- No ALL CAPS. You can't have a civil, constructive discussion if you're shouting.
- No profanity or inflammatory tone. Again, constructive discussion is difficult when overheated rhetoric or profanity is flying around.
SkS has a post about the use of the terms "climate change" and "global warming". It would serve you well to read that post and reflect upon the meaning of the various terms.
The wording of your post and your suggested terminology represents a level of hyperbole and rhetoric that is neither scientific nor constructive.
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Nick Palmer at 02:20 AM on 4 March 2024Climate Adam: Are food influencers wrong about climate change?
Scaddenp @3
Has anyone had any recent communication from Scott yet? -
BaerbelW at 21:08 PM on 3 March 2024It's albedo
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on March 3, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:42 AM on 3 March 2024Why Biden’s pause on new LNG export terminals is a BFD
The point I meant to highlight in the last quote is as follows:
And that [climate impact] chaos threatens to push countless species to extinction. What’s more, building new LNG export terminals will lock in the use of fossil fuels for decades to come — ironically delaying the transition to renewable energy to which natural gas was supposed to be a bridge.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:40 AM on 3 March 2024Why Biden’s pause on new LNG export terminals is a BFD
This article is another of the ‘far too many’ presentations of damaging developments, and resistance to limiting harm done, due to interests that are in conflict with learning to be less harmful and more helpful to others. These developments collectively compromise efforts to ‘improve the future for all children’ – an undeniably worthy objective. And the problem can be understood to permeate institutions of higher education, as presented in Academic capture in the Anthropocene: a framework to assess climate action in higher education, Lachapelle et al., Climatic Change:, the 3rd open access notable item on Skeptical Science New Research for Week #9 2024.
The following statements from the article can be used to better understand the problem.
“We will take a hard look at the impacts of LNG exports on energy costs, America’s energy security, and our environment,” Biden said in a statement. “This pause on new LNG approvals sees the climate crisis for what it is: the existential threat of our time.”
...
“As scientists,” they wrote, “we are telling you in clear and unambiguous terms that [these projects] will undermine your stated goals of meaningfully addressing the climate crisis.”
...
Of course, all revolutions have winners and losers. The obvious big winner of the export boom is the oil and gas industry. Revenues for U.S. LNG exports went from essentially nil in 2015 to about $10 billion in 2021. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, export revenues shot up to more than $35 billion that year as big European importers of Russian natural gas began switching to U.S. suppliers.
The primary loser, to put it in the starkest possible terms, is the global environment.
...
And that [climate impact] chaos threatens to push countless species to extinction. What’s more, building new LNG export terminals will lock in the use of fossil fuels for decades to come — ironically delaying the transition to renewable energy to which natural gas was supposed to be a bridge.A path to better understanding starts with the point I emphasized in the last quote. The concern about the more harmful activity being locked in is valid due to the history of leadership actions excusing harmful profitable and popular developments. Those leadership actions include ‘compensating people who developed perceptions of personal benefit from harmful activity’ for any ‘perceived loss of benefit or status due to leadership actions that would reduce harm done’.
A root of the problem is presented in the second last quote. It is the systemic failure of competitors for popularity and profit to effectively and rapidly learn to limit harm done. That competitive market failure requires ‘leadership action and correction’. And the legal and regulatory systems do not help if they ‘strive to balance benefits obtained (by some people – not children) with the damage done (to other people, especially to people who do not vote – all children, especially people in future generations – all children)’ by dismissing (disrespecting) the parts in brackets.
And a major systemic failure is the failure of the competition for profit and popularity to effectively and rapidly limit the harm done by the development and dissemination of disinformation and the resulting harmful popularity of misinformation (harmful misunderstandings that resist being corrected).
All of that better understanding raises valid concerns about the first quote. Taking a ‘hard look’ could mean that LNG use and export will not be limited as rapidly as it could and should be because of harmful pressures to maintain and increase profitability (GDP) and popularity. Also, the statement restricts the concern to today’s beneficiaries and voters in America, potentially dismissive of global and future concerns – because all other leaders and the populations they lead are harmfully selfishly interested like that too eh – tragedies of the commons all over the planet? (especially if voters can be misled that way).
A serious part of the problem is ‘competitors for status and power’ who strive to benefit from promoting desires to personally benefit from understandably unsustainable beliefs and potentially popular misunderstandings.
The concerns that are accurately expressed by scientists in the second quote are unlikely to be a significant factor in the evaluations by leadership ... unless disinformation and misinformation regarding harmful activity is effectively limited – by All Leadership/Status Competitors.
Cheaters can and do prosper ... for as long as they can get away with it ... creating and excusing as much damage as they can get away with benefiting from causing.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:13 AM on 2 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
In addition to what OPOF says about ozone, it should be noted that ozone in the stratosphere is an important absorber of UV radiation as well. Not that absorption of UV radiation in the stratosphere causes any noticeable heating. Oh, wait. It does.
As for the errors in using % or ppm as a measure of CO2 quantities, I'll beat my own drum and point to this blog post from a couple of years ago.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:52 AM on 2 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
JJones1960 @48,
I hope the following helps you understand that John and Bob have correctly pointed out that you have made a very weak counter-presentation regarding the significance of small amounts. The points presented in the Argument effectively counter the simplistic and understandably incorrect belief that the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is too small to make a difference.
A major weakness of your counter-presentation is that you appear to lack even a small amount of knowledge regarding the matter, here’s why:
You stated • You don’t use trace amounts of ozone to trap a significant amount of heat
That belief is contradicted by improved evidence-based understanding (contradicted by learning what is already known). One of the many presentations about the global surface temperature impacts of ozone is the NASA Aura item: The greenhouse effect of tropospheric ozone. It opens with the following:
Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Ozone absorbs infrared radiation (heat) from the Earth's surface, reducing the amount of radiation that escapes to space.
A lot can be learned from the items presented on SkS and other reliable information sources.
Learning from reliable sources can make a world of difference.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:03 AM on 2 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
JJones1960 even misses his own point.
CO2 is not "colourless" when it comes to infrared radiation. Just because JJones1960 can't see it doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
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JJones1960 at 19:30 PM on 1 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
@49: Perhaps you should have full marks for missing the point!
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John Mason at 19:06 PM on 1 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
@48: full marks for missing the point!
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JJones1960 at 17:47 PM on 1 March 2024CO2 is just a trace gas
This is a very weak article, here’s why:
• You don’t use trace amounts of blood alcohol to trap a significant amount of heat
• You don’t use trace amounts of iron to trap a significant amount of heat
• You don’t use trace amounts of ibuprofen to trap a significant amount of heat
• You don’t use trace amounts of Earth to trap a significant amount of heat in the solar system
• You don’t use trace amounts of arsenic to trap a significant amount of heat
• You don’t use trace amounts of ozone to trap a significant amount of heat
• You don’t use trace amounts of hydrogen sulphide to trap a significant amount of heatYou might be able to use a trace amount of colour to trap a significant amount of heat, but here’s the thing, CO2 is colourless.
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scaddenp at 18:49 PM on 29 February 2024Climate Adam: Are food influencers wrong about climate change?
Another couple of years for results though
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Nick Palmer at 01:24 AM on 29 February 2024Climate Adam: Are food influencers wrong about climate change?
Yup. I'm interested in Scott's results too (I 'invested' in them)...
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nigelj at 04:22 AM on 27 February 2024Climate Adam: Are food influencers wrong about climate change?
Another clearly stated, thought provoking video from Climate Adam.
Has anyone heard anything about Red Baron (Scott Stroughs) soil carbon project, and how its progressing, and whether he has any results?
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BaerbelW at 07:35 AM on 26 February 2024Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on February 25, 2024 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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BaerbelW at 07:34 AM on 26 February 2024IPCC ‘disappeared’ the Medieval Warm Period
Squiggles @8
Thanks for the heads-up! I updated the link to an archived version and also added a glossary entry for the paper while at it.
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Squiggles at 07:07 AM on 26 February 2024IPCC ‘disappeared’ the Medieval Warm Period
The Jones et al. (2009) link is broken. This link to NASA without a paywall works. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the
last millennium: a review of current
status and future prospects -
scaddenp at 06:23 AM on 26 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John, what is needed to build a station is investors. To get investors, you need rock-solid economic proposition. We are still not seeing that from you. The Lazard report on LCOE noted that costs for continuing a nuclear plant that had capital cost already written off was very low. (ie no economic case for shutting them down). I would guess that reburbishment costs are similarly economic in many cases.
What I certainly don't buy in any proposition that governments should build/pay for nuclear stations because of dearth of investors to do it privately. There are good reasons that investors are going elsewhere.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:41 AM on 25 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John ONeill is certainly persistent.
Up-page he has noted that Ontario, Canada is one of the places announcing plans for future nuclear power production expansion. Ontario recently announced plans to refurbish an existing reactor at its Pickering location. This is one of Canada's earliest nuclear power locations. It is not a new plant, although Ontario is also planning to expand nuclear generation facilities operated by Bruce Power (elsewhere in the province).
The Pickering refurbishment is expected to take 11 years, and has already been in the planning/consideration stages for several more. Hardly an example of John ONeill's claim that new plants can be brought online in less than 10 years. The Pickering plant already has many of the needed approvals, since it is an existing reactor complex.
The government of Ontario was short on budget details when making the announcement, but a similar refurbishment nearby had a budget of $12.8 billion. That refurbishment started 7+ years ago and is still not completed. Bruce Power is also in the middle of refurbishment projects that are taking many years.
...and there is considerable debate as to what this will do to power costs. This will not be a cheap process. As Michael Sweet points out, it takes government support to make this happen.
Details in this news story.
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michael sweet at 00:30 AM on 25 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
I noticed that the link to the World Nuclear Industry Status report 2023 will not open on my computer. Here it is:
https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/IMG/pdf/wnisr2023-v4-hr.pdf
you might need to download the report from here:
https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2023-.html
Moderator Response:[PS] Links activated. Please, please do this yourself.
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michael sweet at 23:50 PM on 24 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John Oneill at 357:
I note that you have made another post without a single cite to suport your wild claims.
Brandolini's Law certainly pertains to this exchange so I will be as brief as possible.
"Nuclear is not economic": All of the reactors currently being built are financed almost entirely by governments. The market has completely rejected nuclear power because it is not economic.
"Takes too long to build": According to the World Nuclear Industry Status report 2023 "For the 58 reactors being built, an average of 6 years has passed since construction start—slightly lower than the mid-2022 average of 6.8 years—and many remain far from completion." while "The mean time from construction start to grid connection for the seven reactors started up in 2022 was nine years," (my emphasis) This includes only construction time. The additional planning time, time to obtain construction permits etc is many years. Typical timeframes for nuclear are 10-15 years. By contrast, wind and solar projects typically take 2-4 years from proposal to completion.
"There is not enough uranium": According to Abbott (2012) as of 2012 there is only enough uranium in known deposits to power the world for 5 years. Nuclear supporters would not be attempting to obtain uranium from the ocean if there was enough uranium on land. You provide no references to support your wild claim that enough uranium exists. Frankly, this is common knowledge among informed people.
Your comments on renewable power are contradicted by experience. Educated readers here will not be fooled. Obviously in the 70's to the 2000's renewable sources did not contribute much because they were not economic at that time. Now they are the cheapest power in the world and are reducing carbon emissions more every day.
According to the World Nuclear Industry Status report, at least Italy, Japan and Sweden currently have no plans to build new reactors. Bertolini's Law applies, I have not checked the rest of your list. I note that France's much heralded announcement about building 6 new reactors will not replace their current 56 reactors that are at the end of their useful life. I note that over 50% of Frances nuclear fleet was offline in the past few years for unplanned repairs due to age. In addition, no money has been budgeted to build the announced reactors.
Meanwhile, according to the IEA:
"Over the coming five years, several renewable energy milestones are expected to be achieved:
In 2024, wind and solar PV together generate more electricity than hydropower.
In 2025, renewables surpass coal to become the largest source of electricity generation.
Wind and solar PV each surpass nuclear electricity generation in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
In 2028, renewable energy sources account for over 42% of global electricity generation, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25%."I note that the IEA has historically severely underestimated the amount of renewable energy that would be constructed in the future.
Whenever I examine nuclear supporters claims closely I find that they are not supported by the data.
Nuclear is not economic, takes too long to build and there is not enough uranium.
Moderator Response:[PS] Removed the "chromeextension" frontspeice from the link. Note that you have to be careful copying links to PDF from the URL bar in chrome.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:49 AM on 24 February 2024How oil sands undermine Canada’s climate goals
This is a great summary of the reasons for the persistent failure of leadership to do what could and should be done.
Another way of presenting the problem is that it is the combination of:
- the need to remain popular enough to continue to be in control of leadership actions
- it is easier to be popular by misleadingly pursuing and excusing 'increased benefits from being more harmful' than it is to responsibly lead the reduction of harm.
A minor change of the title would make the nature of the problem clearer:
How the popularity of misleading promotion of benefiting from harm undermines Canada’s climate goals
And a 2021 article in Nature: Scientific Reports "Methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production in Canada are underestimated" indicates that the way that methane emissions are estimated significantly underestimate the magnitude of ghg emissions in Canada and other nations.
But at least the current Canadian Government is doing something about the concerns raised by this Yale Climate Connections article. They have renamed the rebate - CBC News - "Liberals rebranding carbon tax rebate to ensure Canadians know where the money comes from". That action will only reduce Canada's emissions if it improves the popularity of the current government enough to avoid having the more harmful Conservative Party become the leaders after the next election. The Conservative Party has made it clear that they would 'cancel the carbon tax and rebate program' and take other actions that would result in 'more benefit obtained by some people by being able to be more harmful'.
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John ONeill at 07:32 AM on 24 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
'Nuclear is not economic' - the 17 countries building new nuclear missed your memo.
'..takes too long to build..' Mean construction time was 7.5 years, with a long tail. Countries involved in a concerted buildout do rather better - Japan averaged less than 5 years, China and South Korea less than 6. Sheffield Forgemasters, one of the few companies qualified to make reactor pressure vessels, has just demonstrated a new method of ion beam welding, letting them weld around the girth of an RPV ring in one day. This weld, on a 4 metre diameter, 200 mm thick piece, with very tight inspection requirements, would normally take up to a year. RPVs have been one of the bottlenecks for nuclear growth. Other solutions, such as the heavy water reactors used in India, don't have RPVs.
'..there is not enough uranium.' This was the perceived reality when the industry was just starting up - and when Cold War bomb-making led to a frantic search for uranium reserves, since enriching to 90% U235 bomb-grade uses up far more feedstock than does the 3-5% used in light-water reactors, or the natural uranium used in mainly Canadian and Indian heavy water reactors. At the time, it was also assumed that energy demand would keep growing at 1960s rates, and that most of the growth would be from nuclear. L Ron Hubbard's famous graph of human energy use rising sharply from a low base, as fossil fuel reserves are used up, and dropping equally sharply back to pre-industrial levels, was used by Peak Oil doomers to predict a coming crash, to be followed by unending scarcity. In fact, Hubbard original graph showed nuclear growing as fast as fossil fuel energy, completely replacing it, and then maintaining that level indefinitely. Plans were in place to switch to fast reactors, converting the 99.3% U238 of natural uranium to fissile plutonium, and to use thorium, 3x more abundant again, as fissile U233. This effort stalled when demand fell, and uranium proved to be much more abundant than thought. Until recently, global production has been well below demand, due to oversupply causing very low prices. Many high grade mines, like MacArthur River in Saskatchewan, were closed during the drop in demand after Fukushima, with the word's third and fourth largest users, Japan and Germany, temporarily shutting their whole industries. With demand now booming, these mines are reopening, and new prospecting has resumed. (Many nuclear operators are on long-term contracts, and have existing stocks, so are not immediately affected.)
Hubbard's fossil peak has been slower to arrive than expected, and so has the nuclear growth he expected to replace it. Long term though, I expect his insight to be accurate. The drive for increasing energy use is still there - nobody wants to stay poor (religious orders aside). The down-ramp on fossil use will be steeper than the rise, as climate concerns spread. Can weather-based energy fill the gap? Not judging by the view out my window (mid summer, 8/8ths cloud cover, national wind fleet at 1/3 of capacity).
I've read some of Mark Jacobson's papers - all the way back to his cover article on Scientific American, in 2009. Before him, there was Amory Lovins' vision of a 'soft path' energy future, very influential on Jimmy Carter's policy. The two were actually diametrically opposite in their prescriptions. Lovins decried the cost and energy waste of the transmission grid, calling for efficiency ('negawatts'), small-scale, local wind and solar, backed by fluidised bed coal. Jacobson wants a maximal grid, moving greatly overbuilt wind and solar across continents, with probably battery backup, no biofuels or combustion energy, no new hydro. Neither prescription has done well when put into practice in reducing emissions. US CO2 emissions per capita hardly changed from the 70s to the 2000s, only falling with the switch from coal to gas (though increased methane leakage may have negated some of the climate benefit). Widespread, government-sponsored wind and solar growth, most notably in Germany, has bought a rapid rise in installation, but though the individual solar plants and wind turbines became much cheaper, their integration into the grid led to increasing power costs, while fossil fuel use persisted at a higher level than on grids that had already switched to nuclear for largely economic reasons.
Some countries whose governments had declared that nuclear power would cease have reversed course, and plan new build - notably Japan, South Korea, Sweden, and Italy. Others - Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, which had 20 to 40% of their power from nuclear - currently persist in de-nuclearising. Russia is building plants in Turkey, Egypt, Iran, India, Bangla Desh, and shortly Hungary. Russia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, and possibly soon Saudi Arabia, are building nuclear plants at home because it displaces gas, which earns much more money as exports. Japan and South Korea are building nuclear for the opposite reason - it makes power much more cheaply than imported liquefied natural gas, at East Asian prices. The important question for the future is whether nuclear can take more than a toehold share in countries like India, Pakistan, South Africa, and Indonesia, where energy use is rising fast, and coal is now the chosen option.
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michael sweet at 00:24 AM on 24 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John ONeill:
You link to a Nuclear Energy Agency report, hardly an unbiased source, that contains no data or analysis. They link to an IPCC report where the summary for policy makers alone is 24 pages long. The report is hundreds of pages. You must provide a link to an evidence based report and give me the pages that relate to the topic we are discussing. Most proposed future energy systems have a little nuclear since plants currently under construction will presumably still be running in 26 years.
Your other link, which I have previously debunked upthread, is a web piece by a completely uninformed person who has no education or experience in nuclear energy and learned everyting they know about nuclear from the internet. (If you read the rest of this thread you would stop repeating the mistakes nuclear supporters have made upthread). He models the current electrical supply in the USA. Since all cars and all heating by heat pumps will be electrical it is expected that electrical consumption in the USA will at least double. His system is much too small. He uses fossil gas for storage since the required storage would be too expensive to build. I note that a system using fossil gas for storage does not stop emitting CO2 as required. Duh! The cost is prohibitive, he assesses cost incorrectly. The ignorant errors in this analysis are too numerous to address. The fact that nuclear supporters cite this blog proves that nuclear is not economic.
Do you really want to run Afganistan and Yemen completely on nuclear? A solution that does not work for most of the world is hardly a reasonable proposal. There is only enough uranium in all known deposits to run the entire world for 5 years. (Abbott 2012). Read Abott 2012 (linked in the op).
Here is free link to the Jacobson et al 2022 paper titled "Low-cost solutions to global warming,air pollution, and energy insecurity for145 countries". Note that Jacobson describes a solution suitable for the entire world and not just the USA. Upthread I have provided at least a dozen links to free papers that describe completely renewable systems to generate all energy for the entire world. If you read Jacobson you will have more knowledge of what we are talking about. You currently are not very informed.
Here is a free link to a paper titled "On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research", one of the 59 papers that have cited the Jacobson paper. If you read it you will be more informed about what energy researchers think about future energy systems and make fewer ignorant statements online.
If you have not put in the work to learn how to find papers that support your position it is not my problem. It is not my job to spoon feed you information that you cannot be bothered to read yourself. You have to do your homework if you want to tell other people what they should do. Uninformed proposals do not help advance the discussion.
The fact that you cannot find anything to support your position demonstrates that the nuclear discussion on line is completely fantasy based and not fact based. If documents supporting the nuclear position existed than nuclear supporters would cite them. Nuclear supporters cite industry propaganda as if it were fact based information.
Whenever I examine nuclear supporters claims closely I find that they are not supported by the data.
Nuclear is not economic, takes too long to build and there is not enough uranium.
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John ONeill at 19:26 PM on 23 February 2024Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
'Please provide one example of a peer reviewed proposed future world power system that uses more nuclear than the currently built reactors.'
'The IPCC found that, on average, the pathways for the 1.5°C scenario require nuclear energy to reach 1 160 gigawatts of electricity by 2050, up from 394 gigawatts in 2020. 1 160 GW by 2050 is an ambitious target for nuclear energy, but it is not beyond reach.' https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-10/nuclear_energy_and_climate_change_-_cop26_flyer.pdf
Insisting on peer reviewed papers is a good way of ensuring that I can't read them. Here's a calculation on the cost of moving the United States to 100% nuclear electricity. As Joris van Dorp writes, it's a thought experiment on the cost of providing percentages of nuclear from 0 to 100, at various interest rates and build costs. '..It looks like solar and wind are today cheap enough to allow them to work economically as a fuel saving technology with natural gas. And if nuclear costs stay as high as they are today, it even looks as though a combination of storage, wind, solar, demand response and nuclear may be an optimal mix for a zero carbon energy system. However, this does not detract from the fact that nuclear power as a single technological concept is evidently sufficient to allow achieving a low-cost zero-carbon energy system, with no help needed at all from any wind power, solar power or anything else, which is the only thing this article was intended for.'
https://medium.com/generation-atomic/how-much-would-a-100-nuclear-energy-system-cost-3dd7703dd5d3
Moderator Response:[PS] Links activated. You have been around long enough to know that you need to create links yourself in the links editor.
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Doug Bostrom at 19:05 PM on 22 February 2024At a glance - Was Greenland really green in the past?
300!!
Thanks, Nigel. It sounds an excellent addition to a reference shelf.
