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richieb1234 at 22:09 PM on 27 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
I am trying to find a scientific basis for the logarithmic model of the impact of CO2 on global temperature. What I found instead was this seemingly credible article from UC Santa Cruz and University of Colorado Environmental Studies Institute, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320123470_The_Relationship_
between_Atmospheric_Carbon_Dioxide_Concentration_and_Global_
Temperature_for_the_Last_425_Million_Years. , which calls into question the cause-effect relationship between CO2 and global temperature, and concludes that "limiting anthropogenic emissions of CO2 may not be helpful in preventing harmful global warming, but may be essential to conserving biodiversity." If this conclusion is correct, much of what is being done today about climate change may br fruitless.
Can someone recommend a good article that scientifically establishes the cause-effect relationship and justifies the logarithmic model?
Thanks.
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michael sweet at 13:12 PM on 27 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Ritchieb1234,
I think you will be surprised by what you find if you read the All Power plans by 2050 using renewable energy. Read a couple quickly just to get the idea.
Jacobson 2018 describes in detail how many wind turbines, solar panels and what storage is needed to generate All Power (the entire economy, electricity, transportation, industry, farming etc, not just electricity) for the world. It has previously been shown that regional grids (like all North America) is cheaper than individual grids for each country. Jacobson has 20 regions for the world. Jacobson has no bioenergy or electrofuels, he dislikes the pollution from burning. In spite of this handicap, he generates all power for the world at a reasonable cost. His paper will give you an idea of how to achieve the hardest target using only renewable (mostly solar and wind).
Connolly 2016 Smart Energy Europe Connelly generates all power for Europe. He describes the steps to follow to achieve 100% renewable All Power. Step 1 is close all nuclear plants. Connelly uses electrofuel methane for storage and peak power. Cost is reasonable.
Aghahosseai et al 2019 Optomizes a grid for all power in North and South America. He cites at least 21 All Power references. He uses no nuclear. He does not describe generating units like Jaobson, he refers to a previous paper that showed renewable energy can generate all power needed.
Current energy researchers describe continental grids powered by renewable energy. They have no problems with low energy density. They use technology that exists today. As costs cotinue to decline their costs have to be revised downward. They have shown that all the materials exist to build their generators.
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sidd at 07:07 AM on 27 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Re: new nukes are better
1) Stipulated for the moment that the technology is superior. But in light of the abysmal track record shown in the Bloomberg article and Jaczko's skepticism together with huge cost overruns on existing new construction, why should we trust the industry to build them safely or within budget ?
2) Name a bank or a utility willing to finance a new nuke in the USA absent taxpayer guarantees or Price- Anderson. What is the guarantee that cost of build and cleanup is not gonna come out of my hide ?
3)What is the need for nuclear given
doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2012.09.054 , Journal of Power Sources, Budischak et al. 2012 “99.9% of hours of load can be met by renewables with only 9-72 h of storage."
doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2921 , MacDonald et al. Nature Climate Change 2016
“Our results show that when using future anticipated costs for wind and solar, carbon dioxide emissions from the US electricity sector can be reduced by up to 80% relative to 1990 levels, without an increase in the levelized cost of electricity. The reductions are possible with current technologies and without electrical storage.”
See discussion at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/08/unforced-variations-aug-2016/comment-page-3/#comment-658616 et seq.
sidd
Moderator Response:[PS] Fixed link. Please learn how to do this yourself with the link button on the tool editor.
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richieb1234 at 23:58 PM on 26 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Michael Sweet
It has been a pleasure to correspond with you. I think there are many things we agree on; most importantly that we all need to VOTE CLIMATE.
On the subject of nuclear energy, we will probably continue to disagree on some important issues. That's ok. My bottom lines are: new nuclear is far better than old nuclear; the problems raised by Abbott can all be addressed if nuclear is to be of use; solar and wind do not have the energy density to solve climate change by themselves; and we need to use every tool at our disposal. But I respect your viewpoint.
I am going back to the question that originally got me onto this site; namely the scientific basis for climate predictions.
Good luck to you. Best regards.
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michael sweet at 22:31 PM on 26 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Riecieb11234,
I recognize that you are an expert at nuclear safety. I do not like to debate safety because no-one ever changes their minds so it is a waste of time. Barry has started citing James Conca who is a lying nuclear shill. I will state my position.
I have seen the data you describe against the Linear-no-threshold model. While your position that LNT overestimates deaths can be strongly defended, I think that claiming that the radiation released at Fukushima willl cause no damage to anyone, as widely claimed by James Conca and the Breakthrough Institute, is transparently false. Lack of accuracy of LNT does not mean no damage is caused. The radiation will do some damage. The claim that no-one was or will be harmed is false and shows that the nuclear industry does not care how many people they kill.
The claim of 1000 deaths is more accurate than Conca's claim of zero.
I have seen reports recently (sorry no cite) that the combination of many small exposures to different materials, each too small to have a measurable effect, can have a large affect on health. This claim makes sense to me. Why add more radioactivity to the pile?
In 1975 I was a nuclear supporter and thought the plants were engineered to be safe. After the Three Mile Island disaster I began to question the safety culture of Nuclear plants. I realized the plants are extraordinarily complex and operate with a small safety margin. The Chernobyl disaster enforced those questions. We are talkiig world power, don't limit to the USA.
The nuclear industry claims they design to 1in 10,000 year events. The actual tsunami danger in Fukushima was:
"Three tsunami deposits have been identified within the Holocene sequence of the plain, all formed within the last 3,000 years, suggesting an 800 to 1,100 year recurrence interval for large tsunamigenic earthquakes. In 2001 it was reckoned that there was a high likelihood of a large tsunami hitting the Sendai plain as more than 1,100 years had then elapsed.[71] In 2007, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 8.1–8.3 was estimated as 99% within the following 30 years"
Where is the safety culture? This data was ignored to make more money.
When Conca says nuclear waste is no problem, no-one was killed at Fukushima and massive releases of radiation do not hurt anyone I think the nuclear industry executives are a pack of liars (that does not apply to safety professionals).
Sidds article says 90% of US nuclear plants are underdesigned for flooding by their own reckoning!! What would an independant study find!! And the NRC overrules safety experts (like you) and says do nothing. Tell me again why NuScale is so safe when the IRSN says they see no benefit.
Every atomic armed nation in the world has civilian power plants. More nuclear in the world will lead to more bombs. Iran is a perfect example.
The nuclear industry has a long, poor record on safety.
I always argue that nuclear is too expensive and takes too long to build to contribute to a solution to Global Warming. Abbott makes the case that there are many technical reasons why nuclear cannot be widely adopted. I would like to continue the discussion on those arguments.
Moderator Response:[PS] Over the top.
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Ddahl44 at 21:55 PM on 26 June 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
From Schmidt:
[17] If the absorbers are grouped in a simple manner, i.e., water vapor, clouds, CO2 and all other factors, and some simplifying assumptions made, it is relatively straightfor- ward to infer the overlaps and estimate the net attribution of the total greenhouse effect to the individual constituents. Following KT97, given an overlap between two absorbers, an obvious allocation is to split the difference, i.e., if 5% of the net LW radiation could be absorbed either by water vapor or CO2, then each is allocated 2.5%.Moderator Response:But following KT97, that is splitting the overlap at the probability level. Concentrations still matter.
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Ataluma at 20:23 PM on 26 June 2019Antarctica is gaining ice
MA Rodger@490, thanks for the info re Bill McGuire. Cheers
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plincoln24 at 15:27 PM on 26 June 2019The Trump EPA strategy to undo Clean Power Plan
jedaly: Perhaps you missed the 4th and 5th paragraphs of the above article. The EPA determined that CO2 poses a danger to the public and should therefore be regulated as a pollutant. Whether we label CO2 as a pollutant or not, knowing that it is a danger to the public is enough in my mind to warrant its regulation.
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barry17781 at 10:38 AM on 26 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
richie,
you quote suicide and stress as a death from the nuclear incedent, but surely these should be attributed to the alarmist who spread these roumours that nuclear energy is dangerous. As we can see from the statistics it is far safer than wind energy.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory and sloganeering snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.
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Doug Bostrom at 09:57 AM on 26 June 2019New Research for week #25, 2019
Thanks for the suggestion, Synapsid.
As the current perpetrator of Research News I've been thinking hard about this, flipping and flopping.
In days gone by I was in the broadcasting business, sucked in from engineering and onward into management, unavoidably becoming involved with music programming schedules thereby. In music there was an instinct to divide music presentation into genres, which has its ups and downs. The "up" is that listeners with a particular interest could spend an hour per week hearing their favorite style. The downside was that those listeners never heard anything else because we made it so easy for them to avoid anything new, thereby helping them miss much.
In a way the situation in broadcasting and choices there are redolent of the modern condition of the internet, where the decapitation of the editorial class has ended up inadvertently compartmentalizing thoughts and beliefs into what seems to be growing mutual intolerance and ignorance. Bumping into things can be a feature and not a bug.
As with music such as AA, jazz etc. there are scientific players working with different instruments, covering different beats but exploring realms sharing commonality. Meanwhile our fault as a species qualified for management of the planet seems significantly to lie in failing to see the big picture.
The long way of saying: the current disorder is an engineering choice. :-)
But I'm still thinking about it; engineering is never finished. As it stands, articles are being presented in their default order as found in journal feeds so they are categorized at least by what is accepted by particular publishers and their respective journal families. It should be possible to make it work acceptably for specialists and generalists; I'll bend my mind to that.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
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Synapsid at 08:11 AM on 26 June 2019New Research for week #25, 2019
I applaud your continuing this column. I'd suggest for a start retaining Ari's subheadings. They make scanning the posts a good deal more productive, preventing the mind's snapping back and forth among a large number of fields of research.
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richieb1234 at 08:10 AM on 26 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Michael Sweet
""the mid-range estimate for the number of future mortalities is probably closer to 1000" from radiation released in the accident."
The estimates of future mortalities stated in the article you cite, and those by Ten Hoeve and Jacobson which are discussed in the cited article, are based on the assumption that deaths from cancer will result if large numbers of people are exposed to de minimus amounts of radiation. This is the so-called Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) model of radiation health effects. This model is questionable at best; and realistically not credible. It has greatly overestimated cancers from Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Chernobyl. The WHO and other credible organizations have warned against making estimates based on this model. It appears that the dominant health effects from Fukushima were the deaths as a result of the evacuation, which you rightly state should be counted as nuclear deaths. These include suicides due to the stress and other factors.
Best regards
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scaddenp at 08:02 AM on 26 June 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
" But surely the most important greenhouse molecules must be those closer to the earth’s surface, where weather is created and the heat is felt."
GHG at all levels, capture radiation and cause re-radiation downward. Upper level GHG are very important.
"Schmidt splits the effect of CO2 and H20 for their shared wavelengths 50/50." No he doesnt. See table 1.
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scaddenp at 07:48 AM on 26 June 2019Models are unreliable
Weaknesses with models is hardly news - ask any modeller. what you are looking at is the processes by which models get better. Numerous studies have shown that basically models suck at regional-level prediction for reasons including difficulties with ocean circulation. They are also hopeless at decadal-level prediction. If the models were better, we would have such a wide range on ECS estimates.
However the models have plenty of skill at many other important variables and are by far the best tools we have for predicting future climate (ie 30-year averages).
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DinkDink at 05:20 AM on 26 June 2019Models are unreliable
Just some food for thought... These published studies raise plenty of questions about the validity of the the models being used and the accuracy of the historical data being inserted into them.
The role of historical forcings in simulating the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
Moderator Response:[DB] Please be specific and provide a rationale for each of the studies you linked to and why you feel that they support your claims.
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michael sweet at 03:34 AM on 26 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Eclectic,
I thought it was interesting that utility scale solar, which is most of the solar industry, was left off the list from James Conca. He also does not count all the people killed in the evacuation of Fukushima as killed by nuclear.
If you don't count the people you kill, you can get any result you want. From people who care about how many people die: Accounting for long-term doses in “worldwide health effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident” "the mid-range estimate for the number of future mortalities is probably closer to 1000" from radiation released in the accident. James Conca says none.
James Conca never addresses the fact that nuclear power has priced itself out of the market.
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David Kirtley at 03:29 AM on 26 June 2019New Research for week #25, 2019
I always vote for clicking leading to a separate tab/window.
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Ddahl44 at 00:52 AM on 26 June 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
scaddenp,
I read the article, thanks. From what I understand of it, eclectic, water and CO2 are in competition because they share some wavelengths of absorption. What I find troubling is Schmidt splits the effect of CO2 and H20 for their shared wavelengths 50/50. How can this be if there are 70x as many water molecules as CO2? I realize, too, that H20 vapor does not hang out in the upper levels of the atmosphere. But surely the most important greenhouse molecules must be those closer to the earth’s surface, where weather is created and the heat is felt. The “hot” CO2 molecules ahigh are less abundant at lower pressures and have less to bounce into, right? JohnSeers, I realize there is a water cycle just as there is a CO2 cycle. But at any one time, despite evaporation, rain, and ocean CO2 absorption, there are still 70x as many water molecules as CO2. Before we leave the moon, I just saw a Business Insider article that linked higher temperatures on the moon with astronauts stirring up dust on their brief visits. So man is causing lunar warming?! (would link it but couldn’t). Thanks all.
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jedaly at 00:19 AM on 26 June 2019The Trump EPA strategy to undo Clean Power Plan
It seems even more muttled than nijelj suggests.
I'm a phycisist, and the first question I have in reaction to this article, is this: How can CO2 be confused with air polution? This false premis seems to invalidate the entire rest of the discussion.
Moderator Response:[TD] Please read the post before commenting.
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Eclectic at 23:08 PM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Thank you for those (up-thread) death figures, Barry.
(Anecdote) A relative of mine worked for many years in tunnel construction, in various countries. He said the death rate always averaged out to "a man a mile" (for well-regulated worksites). These are deaths closely connected with the tunnel itself (not for transport crashes off-site).
I guess it's a matter of the aim (and the cost/benefits), as to what you consider "acceptable". And what we are accustomed to consider acceptable. Compare for instance the death rate (crashes) for motor vehicle transport ~ about 1.3 million deaths annually, worldwide. Not to mention the larger rate of ruined lives from permanent disability and consequent poverty.
btw, I must say the 440 figure (worldwide annual deaths from "solar rooftop" does sound rather low, in view of the dangers of working on roofs . . . I should imagine (without substantiation) that a similar or greater figure would come from elderly householders up ladders, simply cleaning leaves out of their roof-gutters.
All-in-all, Barry, the figures you quote should probably bear a greater degree of fine analysis, to separate the deaths (and severe disabilities) resulting directly & inherently from the energy production . . . away from those deaths which are more truly at arm's length (i.e. "distantly incidental").
Costs, benefits, and risks.
As you are well aware, there is always a groundswell of concern about risks with "nuclear". Risks of long-term pollution (soil and groundwater), and risks of terrorist actions (small . . . or horrifically large). As one says about the stockmarket ~ past performance is no guide to future events.
Then there are the long-term risks of mass-migration of refugees fleeing the tropical regions where more frequent & intense heat waves make life unlivable for part of each year, as global temperatures rise. Droughts, floods, urban water shortages. Social and political "unrest" (a bland euphemism indeed).
How do we stack those uncertain risks, up against the relatively low risks of nuclear power generation? But as has been much discussed previously ~ can a nuclear power solution be carried out quickly, in a timely manner to forestall those geo-political risks? . . . and without the enormous opportunity cost, for money/resources diverted from more immediate renewables usage?
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michael sweet at 22:05 PM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Ritchieb1234:
This headline in my local paper today gives me hope:
"Climate change expected to take center stage during this week’s Democratic debates
Recent polls show that the issue is a litmus test for many Democratic voters, and the party’s candidates have responded with more detailed and aggressive proposals than were imagined even four years ago."If we all work hard the damage can be limited. Vote Climate
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michael sweet at 21:52 PM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Barry,
A bit of advice from someone who has posted at SkS for a long time:
If you continue to complain about the moderation they will ban you forever. It is a very hard job to moderate and they get little in return for their hard work. If you limit your comments to what you think is important you will be more effective in the end.
The facts speak for themselves. Adding moderation complaints detracts from your posts.
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barry17781 at 20:05 PM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Here are the death rates with an USA viewpoint, please moderator do not try and hide the death rates from wind
Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
Wind 150 (2% global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)
Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)
Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#625337e9709b
Moderator Response:[DB] If you're to present a fair-balanced argument, it needs to be a global one, for ALL forms of energy production. More than the US is involved in the replacement of the usage of fossil fuels.
Moderation complaints again snipped.
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nigelj at 18:54 PM on 25 June 2019New Research for week #25, 2019
Regarding : I’ll See It When I Believe It: Motivated Numeracy in Perceptions of Climate Change Risk.
This excellent study just confirms what I and probably others suspect intuitively. We know that many people centre their lives on a collection of fundamental ideological beliefs, and are reluctant to change their beliefs, probably because of the effort and perceived risks involved and the risk of alienating themselves from their tribe, given these shared bottom lines define the tribe. If data comes along that suggests a belief may be wrong, the smarter people are the smarter they are at fooling themselves about the data, which shouldn't actually be too surprising!
It's possible to train yourself out of this motivated reasoning, and be objective. Scientists are taught to do it. But it has a cost because it can mean criticising the views of friends and colleagues, and can alienate people from the group and the prevailing group think, so perhaps this is why its so prevalent particularly in the general public. It's just easier, but unfortunately the consequences of motivated reasoning can be serious..
All this appears to be a risk factor for both liberals and conservatives however conservatives look to me like they have particularly complex ideological belief systems, so this possibly explains the stronger motivated numeracy among the One Nation people compared to the Greens, although nobody is immune from the phenomenon. In my experience everyone has at least some cherished beliefs.
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dana1981 at 15:34 PM on 25 June 2019The Trump EPA strategy to undo Clean Power Plan
Hi nijelj. Well, the problem is that the US is left with basically nothing. As you say, Congress was unable to pass a climate bill, which left the Obama EPA with the responsibility to address the problem. If Congress could implement a price on carbon then eliminating the Clean Power Plan wouldn't be much of a problem. Unfortunately that's not the reality we currently inhabit. If we're lucky, maybe in 2021.
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barry17781 at 09:40 AM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Here is an extract regarding Wind turbine fatalities for comparison(world wide i'm afraid)
http://www.caithnesswindfarms.co.uk/accidents.pdf
Of the 192 fatalities: 120 were wind industry and direct support workers (divers, construction, maintenance, engineers, etc), or small turbine owner /operators. 72 were public fatalities, including workers not directly dependent on the wind industry (e.g. transport workers). 17 bus passengers were killed in one single incident in Brazil in March 2012; 4 members of the public were killed in an aircraft crash in May 2014 and a further three members of the public killed in a transport accident in September 2014. This includes several suicides from those living close to wind turbines.
Moderator Response:[DB] Comparing global supposed wind turbine fatalities to supposed similar numbers in just the US is disingenuous.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit posts with inflammatory tone and fallacious rhetoric. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
Non sequitur snipped.
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barry17781 at 09:12 AM on 25 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
The safety culture in the US civilian nuclear industry is very high, they have had only one fatality ( 2013) in the last 30 years. Please compare this to any other industry.
(the previous fatality was in 1988)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reactor_accidents_in_the_United_States
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Estoma at 07:45 AM on 25 June 2019We're heading into an ice age
I was sure cherry picking was involved. I searched Tamino's site before posting here but didn't come acoss the article you posted. My search skills need improvement.
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nigelj at 07:09 AM on 25 June 2019The Trump EPA strategy to undo Clean Power Plan
Quite some history, and very convoluted, and like a huge tug of war. The history of the clean power plan initiative also includes the fact it all started when Democrats wanted a federal cap and trade scheme, but that was defeated, and so Obama was understandably frustrated so retaliated with the clean power plan idea.
It's interesting because the USA has the Environmental Protection Agency, and the UK also have a bipartian body set up to deal with climate change issues and make decisions without government interference, so the general idea is not unique to the USA. What seems to cause trouble in the USA is 1) The President has the power to select who runs the EPA and has elected fossil fuel cronies like Scott Pruitt (gone now) and Americas constitutional system allows things to be challenged by the courts seemingly forever, so ending with a stalemate and in the case of the CPP the crazy system has allowed weak and ineffectual legislation to be passed by essentially finding loopholes in the law. The UK's independent bipartisan climate body and parliamentary democracy is not as susceptible to these outcomes because it is structured differently.
But given the CPP was never the preferred option, does it matter if it gets killed off? And the regulatory mechanism in the plan is not ideal. It's more important to have a price on carbon which suggests either a cap and trade scheme or a carbon fee and dividend. The other option is for the government to simply subsidise renewable energy (the Green New Deal more or less promotes this) and given the structure of Americas constitution and its tribal politics this might be a useful approach. Both sides of politics have embraced various subsidies so the precedent is there.
Perhaps I'm wrong, but it seems logical to have either one scheme or the other, or two schemes at the most, not a confused muddle of multiple different schemes all with weak settings.
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vacnol at 07:09 AM on 25 June 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
I made an account just to post this comment. Nice work, but I have to raise question to the statement made on carbon emmisons being the highest the've been in 15-20 millions years. While I do agree humans have been doing their part to upset the balance, while I don't feel like doing the research, I'm fairly certain major volcanic eruptions and cosmic events such as Toba and the astroid that ended the Younger Dryas period would have launched more gas into the atmosphere. May be wrong, but we always overplay the power we have vs what Earth and space are capable of.
Moderator Response:[PS] Welcome to SkS. You should do your own research if that is what you believe. It requires a certain hubris to believe that you know more than scientists working their careers in this. For volcanoes, see here. For CO2 at Younger Dryas (asteroid theory is contentious), see here. If you are going to make claims, you must support them with evidence otherwise it just sloganeering. (see the comments policy).
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Daniel Bailey at 02:23 AM on 25 June 2019We're heading into an ice age
The change in solar forcing is about -0.1W/m2, which would be made up in just 3 years of current CO2 concentration growth:
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022022
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD028922
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JazminePerkins at 00:33 AM on 25 June 2019We're heading into an ice age
In regards to the "what would happen if the sun went through another Maunder Minimum?" question.
Maunder minimum,is an unexplained period of drastically reduced sunspot activity, this has previously occurred between 1645 and 1715. In theory we know that the warmth of the sun can affect the earth. Thus a lack of sun could lead to decreased glacial melting and allow glacial production to increase and push outwards.
Moderator Response:[TD] A Maunder Minimum type event would merely slow down warming a little bit for one or two decades. Type “Maunder” into the search field at the top left of this page.
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Estoma at 23:27 PM on 24 June 2019IPCC is alarmist
Hope this thread is appropriate.
Over the years I've used the SKS escaltor in my blog posts from time to time. Recently I recieved a reply "it is a great example of cherry picking noisy high/low points along a period when first the PDO and then the AMO moved into their positive phases. If you remove the noise then the escalator magically disappears. What's left is two step rises. The first from 1976-1980 was the PDO going positive. The 2nd from 1993-1995 was due to the AMO going positive.
Moderator Response:[PS] Try here. Cherry picking by the way is making an argument by selecting only the part of the dataset that supports your argument. Real statistician have removed noise rigourously. See here. Sks escalator is that only deniers believe in step changes. The science shows that when internal variability is removed, then temperatures steadily rise with the increase in CO2.
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MA Rodger at 23:27 PM on 24 June 2019Antarctica is gaining ice
Ataluma @489,
Concerning ther seismological part of your comment, a 2012 book 'Waking the Giant: How a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes' by Bill McGuire has a CarbonBrief assessment here.
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richieb1234 at 20:11 PM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
sidd
Great article by Bloomberg. I have been retired from NRC for 12 years. This makes me want to get reengaged.
Thanks.
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Ataluma at 16:56 PM on 24 June 2019Antarctica is gaining ice
If you semi inflate a soccer ball then put it on the floor with a weight on it , it will deform to roughly the same shape as the earth. Take the weight off and the ball becomes more of a globe shape rather than a flattened pear. When the localised weight of the Antarctic ice is removed, what happens to the rest of our connected planet . My bet is that this will give rise to a global redistribution of surface tension and an associated rise in tectonic and volcanic activity. Also possibly the weight of other continental plates will cause them to sink lower than their present position re the geoid and thus contribute to an increase in apparent sea level rise caused by continental sink. Thoughts?
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MA Rodger at 16:54 PM on 24 June 2019Planetary health and '12 years' to act
Philosopherkeys @9,
You begin your comment with a question:-
Being that the ice core samples from Greenland show that over the last 10,000 years, the earth has been on average 3 degrees celcius warmer than today, how can anyone conclude this current round of warming is entirely manmade?
The basis for this question, that Greenland core cores show today's temperature 3 deg celsius below the average of the last 10,000 years: this assertion has been addressedby Daniel Bailey @10 with a corrected version of the Easterbrook graph. Yet even the Easterbrook graph does not show today's temperature 3 deg celsius below the average of the last 10,000 years. Even the maximum of the last 10,000 years is not 3 deg C warmer than today.
So my question is: - Can you provide the source of data that does show today's temperature 3 deg celsius below the average of the last 10,000 years?
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sidd at 15:01 PM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Safety standards for nukes relaxed:https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-nuclear-power-plants-climate-change/
Tell me again about strong safety culture ?
sidd
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sidd at 14:45 PM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Here is a former chair of NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, USA) until 2012 : nukes should be bannedhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/i-oversaw-the-us-nuclear-power-industry-now-i-think-it-should-be-banned/2019/05/16/a3b8be52-71db-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html
sidd
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nigelj at 13:33 PM on 24 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
OPOF
"And defending the freedom to get away with misleading political marketing is one of the greatest harms humanity has ever inflicted upon itself.'
Yes however I feel its in the general publics hands. They need to stop voting for ignorant people who have no integrity, and who cherrypick and deceive. The public need to stop rewarding people who are dishonest and incompetent. Political Parties need to put up candidates with a record of integrity otherwise we end up with the absurd scenario last election in the USA where it became the choice of the lesser of two evils. People need to stop seeing elections as a gladatorial contest for their amusement, and realise awful candidates are exactly what they appear to be, awful, and that it will have nasty repercussions for their lives.
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michael sweet at 09:49 AM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Richieb1234,
If you use CO2 from the air to make electrofuels (this could be methane, methanol, gasoline or diesel) when the fuel is burned the CO2 returns to the atmosphere. That is called "carbon neutral" because you do not add or remove CO2 from the aiir. If you capture CO2 from the air and then pump it into the ground, intending the CO2 to stay there forever, that is "removal" of CO2. Removal is often called "sequestering" the CO2.
I misunderstood you when you said "removal" of carbon from the air. Carbon neutral electrofuels seem like a good idea to me although they are not very efficient. (electric motors are over 90% efficient while internal combustion motors are often less than 25% efficient). It is also very cheap to store massive amounts of power as liquid electrofuels.
If you just pump the CO2 into the ground you have no product to sell (except cleaner air) so a tax wuld be necessary to fund the project. Most scenarios that limit warming to 2C or less include massive amounts of sequestering of carbon.
The fracking industry has never turned a profit!!! and here and Wharton. They have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars and make no money. They will never be able to pay back their loans, the wells rapidly go down in production. They must drill more and more wells to keep up production. The entire industry is a big Ponzi scheme. I Googled "how much money has been invested in fracking". Half the articles describe frackig as a scam.
If the money wasted in fracking had been invested in renewable energy we would currently generate most of our electricity with renewable energy. Obviously there is enough money to invest in renewable energy since all the fracking money will be written off in the end.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:07 AM on 24 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
nigelj @5,
I like to pair the explanation that 'everybody's actions add up to be the future' with dramatic but true points made like BBB does.
It highlights that the lack of correction to date is the problem. And a continued lack of correction of how people act continues to rapidly make things worse. That makes it clear that there is never a time when 'it is too late to make corrections'.
The pairing of that type of understanding can also clearly point out that the less corrected people are the 'worse the worst will be' and the more dramatic the required correction becomes. Today's climate impact emergency developed because, 30 years ago, global leadership of the supposedly more advanced nations did not start responsibly leading the understood to be required 'significant correction', because the understanding and correction were easily made unpopular because harmful unsustainable activity had become profitable and popular.
And there in lies the biggest barrier to improving climate science understanding. Understanding what has been happening undeniably requires accepting that freer competition for popularity and profit will develop harmful results that can be very difficult to correct. And defending the freedom to get away with misleading political marketing is one of the greatest harms humanity has ever inflicted upon itself.
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nigelj at 07:34 AM on 24 June 2019In 1982, Exxon accurately predicted global warming
DrivingBy @11, good points and I agree.
I feel companies have a moral duty to keep shareholders informed of looming problems like that oil is impacting the climate, but I would agree it is the shareholders decision as to what to do about things.
But companies do also have a legal duty to inform shareholders if there are potential financial implications and I think some oil companies have been sued on their failure to do this. I stand to be corrected.
The oil companies may not have broken the law, and have a duty to shareholders and to maximise profits, but it shows how the profit motive and paychecks crush any idealism and worse is having some real damaging effects on the environment. Perhaps the problem could be solved with laws that require greater transparency with shareholders on problems, and laws that prohibit funding think tanks if there is a possible conflict of interest. However real change is probably going to require a change of attitudes and some way of putting environmental goals on an equal footing as profit goals at the very least. Im not sure if this could be done with the law or is something that may emerge as a more voluntary thing. Some companies are at least trying this.
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nigelj at 07:11 AM on 24 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Regarding BeezelyBillyBub's list of factoids. It creates a graphic picture of our dillema, but it is so "full on" people might say we are doomed, and its pointless doing anything, and this is is why I avoid writing lists like this. I would be interested in what other people think?
If we concentrate on all the considerable challenges in developing renewable energy, the small ammount so far developed, and roadblocks in the way like oil exporting countries, do we risk creating a self fullfilling prophesy of failure ?
I'm not a natural optimist, but I prefer to at least try to take a positive view and solutions focussed approach. And it's definitely not too late to mitigate the climate problem.
However we obviously shouldn't understate the problem either. Fear does motivate people, and people have a right to know about plausible worst case scenarios and can't be treated like children.
Some of the factoids in BBB's list create a false impression. Yes humans are a huge part of the earths vertebrate biomass, so were dinosaurs once, etcetera. So what? We have evolved to be the dominant apex predator and lifeform so we have to manage the situation so as to not wreck the planet in the process. We have no other choice.
Agree with OPOF's comments especially that we need a nuanced and accurate definition of hothouse earth. It's most certainly is a big problem for humanity, but it is better defined as a tropical earth with parts of the earth essentially uninhabitable for humans, but it is extremenly unlikely to turn the earth into Venus. Hyperbole will give denialists ammunition to make scientists look foolish.
We can most certainly still avoid a hothouse earth scenario. My understanding is that for hothouse earth conditions the permafrost and certain other tipping points have to be crossed and this is thought to be at plus 3 degrees c above the pre industrial basline so we still have a chance to stop this.
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william5331 at 06:31 AM on 24 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
The solution for the sea turtles is simplicity itself, technically, but as usual really hard in practice. Collect eggs from sea turtle beaches and transfer them to other beaches all over the place and make these beaches off limits for people (almost impossible). Presumably the turtles will return to the beaces where they have hatched and some beaches will be at the right temperatures.
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richieb1234 at 05:16 AM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Michael Sweet
I cannot keep up with all the traffic. I have lost the thread completely. :-) Nevertheless, I am getting great insights from everything I see on this site.
"The problem with removing carbon is the immensity of the task and you do not make any money sequestering carbon."
I have seen papers that claim fuels from recovered CO2 can make money by competing with fossil fuels. But I have not seen any analysis to back that up.
"They think the fracking scam will go on forever."
Why do you say fracking is a scam?
Best regards
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michael sweet at 03:27 AM on 24 June 2019Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Richieb1234,
From your post 65:
I have to be optomistic or it is hopeless. There is no question that the situation is much less hopeless today than it was ten years ago.
I am not very familiar with the IEA. The US Energy Information Administration outlook 2019, linked in the OP, is even worse. The USEIA has consistently been years behind the curve on the adoption of renewable energy and the collapse of coal. They think the fracking scam will go on forever. I hope the IEA is also too conservative.
The IEA report clearly states that current efforts are too little. 10 years ago I do not think they would have made such a strong claim. Authorities now recognize there is a problem although they have not taken serious action.
The Lazard 2018 report (also from the OP) has a better reputation for accuracy and forecasting future trends. This graph
Shows that in the USA total renewable energy costs less than most coal and nuclear operation and maintenance costs with no mortgage. Coal and nuclear also receive very large subsidies so I think comparing subsidized renewable to the coal and nuclear is fair.
Worldwide numbers are harder to glean from Lazard but renewable is cheapest in most locations world wide. It seems to me that a carbon tax or similar regulations are very likely to be implemented in many locations in the next 10-20 years. That makes renewable the clear choice for future energy builds. Fossil plants planned 10 years ago are being finished but few new builds are starting that are not renewable.
Here is Lazard's cost comparison for all technologies:
The fact that renewable energy is the cheapest makes me hope the market will start to help correct the problem. When renewable energy was more expensive it looked hopeless.
Every year for the past 10 years I am amazed at the decline in renewable energy costs. The IEA report thinks renewable can continue to decline for more years. The lower renewable energy gets the faster it will replace fossil fuels.
I agree that we need agressive regulation to adress this emergency. Vote Climate. Carbon negative actions may make sense after all carbon generating activities have been superceded. I think wind and solar will be much cheaper to use for those activities. The problem with removing carbon is the immensity of the task and you do not make any money sequestering carbon.
I have seen a picture of the sculpture you describe. It is only too true.
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DrivingBy at 03:00 AM on 24 June 2019In 1982, Exxon accurately predicted global warming
"You would think that a fossil fuels company like Exonn knowing there was a global warming problem while knowingly funding think tanks pretending there wasn't a global warming problem infringes some form of law because it's making a misleading representation."
They were following the law which requires them to act as fiduciaries to those who buy shares of the company. I don't like their conduct in this instance and I believe they could have followed the fiduciary law without contributing to denialist think tanks, but they aren't free to publicly disparage their own product.
If Exxon had began a campaign which had the affect or even intent of convincing the public to not buy their product, management would then be putting their interests above the people that entrusted their cash to the company. Such managers would be self-branding to jump ship to the next generation of energy company, whatever that turned out to be, while trashing the value of share investors bought. The company belongs to the owners (anyone who buys shares), which is in turn mostly retirement funds. Managers are prohibited from working against the shareholders.
Fiduciary duty doesn't, at least in my mind, require political action using misleading or deceiving tactics to promote the shareholder's interests, and I think that people in responsible positions have a moral duty to interpret the laws in a moral way, e.g. "Let your yes be your yes, and your no be your no", etc. Unfortunately the idea of being honest and placing anything above material success, fame or reputation is considered horribly old-fashioned, possibly racist or at least colonial now.
From my idealist perspective, Exxon made a sad turn. In contrast, the company has an excellent record in their core business. Exxon began a comprehensive safety culture after the Valdez grounding and are known to have above-industry standards for drilling and shipping of oil. They could have complemented that by starting a renewables division while removing themselves from the public discussion of the climate issue. But ideals like that melt pretty fast in the heat of politics and paychecks, it was probably never going to happen.
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Daniel Bailey at 02:55 AM on 24 June 2019Planetary health and '12 years' to act
Global temperature reconstructions show this to be untrue.
"how can anyone conclude this current round of warming is entirely manmade?"
Because actual scientists, using the well-understood physics of our world, have established that it is only when the anthropogenic forcing is included that the observed warming can be explained.
Natural vs Anthropogenic Climate Forcings, per the NCA4, Volume 2:
Fun Factoid: Changes in the sun's output falling on the Earth are about 0.05 Watts/meter squared.
By comparison, human activities warm the Earth by about 2.83 Watts/meter squared (AR5, WG1, Chapter 8, section 8.3.2, p. 676).
"What also troubles me is the fact that the Medieval Warm Period was written out of the history books by the IPCC hockey stick graph. As well the impact of the 500 year period of cooling known as the Little Ice Age"
Another meme. Here's the "Hockey Stick For The Most Recent 1,700 Years", from the Trump Administration in 2017:
"the Earth was a lot warmer when the Vikings settled Greenland and Iceland"
Alreay refuted, but here's global temperatures with the period of the Viking occupation of Greenland highlighted:
And here's the temperatures from the GISP2 core from Greenland, with the instrumental temperature measurements taken from that same location added in for context:
"the Earth was a few degrees warmer during the Medieval Warm Period than it is today, then the polar ice cap was smaller and thinner than even now"
Your temperature claims were already refuted, but we have observational data to 1850 and proxy data going back millennia documenting Arctic sea ice extent changes over time.
For example, here's the last 1,500 years, from NOAA's Arctic Report card 2017:
You'll need to raise your game to compete in this venue. In this venue, the onus is on YOU to be able to support your claims (each claim) with source citations, preferably to credible sources. Further, many of your claims are already refuted on separate posts here (thousands exist, use the Search function to find the most appropriate post to make your claims and to stake your reputation on).
I'm sure that the moderation staff would prefer to not intervene here, but I'm equally sure that they will if you continue to post what is essentially a Gish Gallop of memes refuted many times before (PRATT).
Read the Comments Policy and construct your comments to comply with it and my advice to you and all will be fine.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:41 AM on 24 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
BeezelyBillyBub,
Improving awareness and correcting understanding need to be understood to be the objectives (of every person who is trying to be helpful).
Try to avoid using terms that are open to too much interpretation. Divisive resistance to correction and improvement thrives on opportunities to make-up misleading claims that would appeal to people who are inclined to dislike their awareness and understanding being improved in a way that would challenge their developed perceptions of status (prosperity, helpfulness, opportunity for more personal benefit, ...), for themselves or any sub-tribe of global humanity they identify with.
And it is more helpful to point people to more robust presentations of understanding like the Sustainable Development Goals.
It may take more words to describe things in more detail, but when trying to be clear, fewer words can result in run-away popularity of misleading counter-claims. Less detail can make it easier to abuse motivated reasoning or confirmation bias to dismiss a presentation of information. I support the presentation of 'worst case future results', but only with a detailed presentation of the basis for the worst case.
"Runaway hothouse earth" may be interpreted as "Earth becoming Venus".
The nasty thing about global warming impacts is indeed the way that exceeding each tipping point starts something harmful that adds to the total impacts even without more impact from humans, and may be practically impossible for humans to completely stop or reverse (unlike the ending of fossil fuel use and other harmful developed human activities). However, my understanding is that the best developed understanding is that Earth is almost impossible to be impacted by human impacts to a degree that triggers tipping-points that would result in Earth becoming like Venus. And my understanding is that the tipping-points will not do what you have claimed (5 triggered below 2.0 C warming that are unstoppable and inevitably trigger the other tipping points in a runaway warming leading to Venus-like conditions on Earth).
I see the simple undeniable beauty of the other brief points made. But the 'runaway hothouse earth' and 'runaway mass extinction' points need more details or a different simple wording (I do not have alternative simple wording alternatives to offer)
What needs to be presented is how the amplification of the feed-backs of each of the tipping points will add up, how each one takes away the potential for human corrective actions to reverse what has been done.
That concern may be well explained by starting with the understanding that future reality is the sum of the actions of every person through the string of progressive moments in time. Everybody's impacts add up. Any harmful impact that accumulates collectively contributes to the "Harm Done". That is why people cannot be allowed to 'believe what they want and do as they please' (even though that understanding is understandably unpopular). Helpful people may even be able to substantially remove CO2 from the atmosphere or other corrective actions, but if harmful people are still able to be harmful the Helpful people's actions are just attempts to try to limit how much worse things will be, not able to 'make things better'.
Every person choosing a harmful action makes the problem worse, no matter how much the helpful people reduce their own impacts. That leads to the need to explain why less fortunate people should be allowed to create impacts and must be helped by the more fortunate to live at least basic decent lives that are not harmful to the future of humanity. Claiming that the supposedly less advanced, less fortunate should know better and behave better before "all" of the more fortunate people behave more helpfully (less harmfully) is 'absurd'. Which leads to the need, and opportunity, to explain that Helpfully Altruism must Govern and Limit the behaviour of everyone, especially Governing the actions of the supposed winners/leaders (if they did not and do not Self-Govern by Helpful Altruism they do not deserve their status).
Each tipping point has a "life of its own", adding to the collective impacts. But, unlike human impacts that can be reduced and even reversed by helpful human actions over-powering the harmful impacts of Others, tipping points can be harder for humans to "put back in the box they came out of". An example is the way that changes of Ocean Chemistry due to the human production of massive amounts of excess new CO2 are very hard for humans to reverse. Even reducing atmospheric levels of CO2 would not significantly reverse the Ocean chemistry changes, or the related impacts on Ocean Biodiversity.
And added information that could be helpful would be the detailed presentation of the likely amplification of global warming by each tipping-point triggered result.
That is a lot more difficult to present than saying 'Runaway hothouse Earth'. But it can short-circuit any attempt to create a potentially popular misleading counter-claim. The refutation of the counter-claim would likely be able to be shown to be part of the initial presentation of information that the person is trying to discredit.
However, I can suggest a simple brief comment that is difficult to create misleading counter-claims of. I recommend pointing people to more robust presentations of collective understanding of what is required for the future of humanity. People should be pointed to the Sustainable Development Goals, which includes a Climate Action Goal which has things like the IPCC Reports as 'part' of its basis. The SDGs are open to improvement, but they are undeniably what need to be Governing human activity, especially the activity of Winners/Leaders who want to sustain their developed perceptions of Status.
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