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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 107051 to 107100:

  1. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    Excellent, looks as though there's broad agreement that sea level is increasing. Except... BP, my point about tide gauges is rooted in the observation that the gauge network has been heavily skewed in density toward stations located in upper latitudes of the NH, for cultural reasons. Whatever conclusions may be drawn from tide gauges as a statistical population need to account for this. You say that sea level rise is not accelerating, but does your assertion take into account the density distribution of the gauge network? I think we can dismiss the "all continents are sinking" concept, unless we can posit some enormous addition of mass occurring simultaneously on all continents. Strictly speaking, as we're not speaking of falling sea level but rather accelerating increase of sea level, probably further exploration of this ought to take place at the conveniently named How much will sea levels rise in the 21st Century?
  2. Berényi Péter at 03:12 AM on 11 October 2010
    Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    #89 Albatross at 10:04 AM on 10 October, 2010 extrapolating that polynomial curve out to 2100 was a poor joke It was. But it's not a poorer joke in any way than the conclusion of Church 2008. "In situ and satellite data indicate an increase in the rate of rise since 1870 and that the sea level is currently rising at a faster rate than at any time during the last 130 years. The sea level is projected to continue to rise at an increasing rate during the 21st century." The reality is that although there is a considerable interdecadal variability in the rate of sea level change, it has not accelerated in any meaningful way during the last century. So even if sea level is projected to continue to rise at an increasing rate, this projection is not based on empirical evidence, but something else. Whatever this something else may be, it is surely incompatible with the time tested scientific method. And while we are at it, "projection" itself as it is used here is not a traditional concept of natural sciences and as such, has an ill-defined meaning. Therefore it should never be used in scientific papers. One is either able to predict what would happen or not. In the latter case it is a perfectly legitimate and acceptable scientific position to express it as we do not know. On century scale linearity and interdecadal variability of sea level change see: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L01602, 2007 doi:10.1029/2006GL028492 On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century S. J. Holgate "Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, the mean rate of sea level rise over the period 1904-2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/yr after correction for GIA using the ICE-4G model and for inverse barometer effects using HadSLP2. The mean rate of rise was greater in the first half of this period than the latter half, though the difference in rates was not found to be significant." "it is found that the high decadal rates of change in global mean sea level observed during the last 20 years of the record were not particularly unusual in the longer term context" "The highest decadal rate of rise occurred in the decade centred on 1980 (5.31 mm/yr) with the lowest rate of rise occurring in the decade centred on 1964 (-1.49 mm/yr)." Departure from a linear trend may not be significant, but it is not accelerating either.
  3. CO2 is not increasing
    Canadell et al. 2007 document the degrading of carbon sinks since 1960: We estimate that 35+/-16% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 growth rate between 1970–1999 and 2000–2006 was caused by the decrease in the efficiency of the land and ocean sinks in removing anthropogenic CO2 (18 +/- 15%) and by the increase in carbon intensity of the global economy (17 +/- 6%). The remaining 65 +/- 16% was due to the increase in the global economy.
  4. Global warming is accelerating the global water cycle
    #2 Spencer Weart at 02:49 AM on 8 October, 2010 says "Yes, too noisy to say anything very strong about a trend; the statistics must be marginal. Too soon to declare this another sign of AGW, it would be embarrassing if a couple years from now the trend turns down... " Au contraire, the paper claims the trend is very strongly supported by statistics, p<0.001. Actually they declare not one but THREE trends, all p<0.001. You don't have to wait a couple of years for a downtrend. The paper found a downtrend for the last 7 years of the study period, with significance p<0.001. "An increase in the ensemble mean of R is evident from 199412–199906 (2,904 km3∕y2; p < 0.001), followed by a decreasing trend (−756 km3∕y2; p < 0.001) through the end of the study period (199907–200611). The trend for the entire 199412–200611 study period is 540 km3∕y2 (p < 0.001)."
  5. Global warming is accelerating the global water cycle
    The water cycle is SLOWING, not accelerating according to NCAR: http://feww.wordpress.com/2009/04/22/surprise-worlds-largest-rivers-drying-up/ "Climate change drying up world’s 925 largest ocean-reaching rivers. About 72 percent of the world’s 925 largest ocean-reaching rivers are drying up, most of them because of the climate change, according to a report by National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado." and "Annual freshwater discharge into the world’s oceans decreased during the 1948–2004 research period as follows" And here's a graph of global freshwater discharge from a 2010 study by Trenberth. It tells a rather different story than the Syad2010 that is the topic of this post. source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/ClimateChangeWaterCycle-rev.pdf
  6. It's the sun
    @Ken: "No, I hear what you say architeel - and it is wrong." You may hear what I say, but you clearly don't understand it. "So in fact for the AG forcings - the RELATIVE value IS the ABSOLUTE value because none supposedly existed in AD1750." The graph (assuming we're still talking about KR's graph at #623) doesn't show "AG forcings", it shows "well-mixed greenhouse gases" forcing. The fact that all forcings start at the same point should give you a hint that they are all relative values. Also, this tidbit after the graph is pretty clear: "This starts from a baseline of 1880 (where the "zero" is set), showing deltas (changes) from those values." What's the use of stating all kinds of numbers if you don't get simple logic?
  7. It's freaking cold!
    #20: "Should we expect a dynamic system to respond only linearly?" Who said anything about climate responding linearly? There are multiple inputs (solar variation, GHGs, aerosols, etc) and a complicated output. Hot years, cold years, differential heating from one part of the globe to another: Any understanding of that system requires two things: 1 - we must look at the long term trends, not the daily (or even annual) variation and 2 - we must base our understanding on the work of the scientists who are the experts in these things, not on the vaporings of those who cherry-pick data or see everything through their pre-conceived notions.
  8. It's the sun
    CBD #651 Yeah I had read the advanced version. Where did you get the TSI in AD1750 at 1365.5? The charts show it at or below 1365W/sq.m. Dr Trenberth calculates his climate response due to IR cooling at -2.8W/sq.m based on a surface warming of 0.75degC (close enough to 0.8). He equates this surface warming increase to the increase in the radiative equilibrium temperature of the planet. This figure is then used to subtract from the AG forcings from IPCC AR4 Fig2.4 which we know are referenced to AD1750. I have made the rash assmption that the surface warmng since AD1750 is 0.75degC (0.8degC for short), otherwise Dr Trenberth would not be adding or subtracting apples from apples, would he?
  9. It's freaking cold!
    Yes, for sure, I see that a vast majority of records are high. I just wonder. The climate is dynamic, not linear. We are changing more than one factor, the concentrations of more than just one greenhouse gas. Should we expect a dynamic system to respond only linearly? If the posts in the URL I just gave are records for locations then why did they miss the all time record low set at Los Angeles International airport this year or the ones in San Diego county or in other countries? In that other thread my messages never post to be deleted. You can see that has led others to cross post here too. If that is not being banned from that thread then I have to seriously consider that this whole endeavor is dysfunctional, it is not working as the moderator suggests.
    Moderator Response: Remember that moderation is dynamical, too. Overly-tight moderation constricts the mutual discussion of the science (and provokes questions as to motivations; a no-win scenario). Under-moderation results in chaos. We're human, and as such do the best we can, making allowances for the same by commenters. Keep your comments focused on the post topic and everything should be fine. Also realize that sometimes comments are deleted within seconds of being posted--perhaps before you have a chance to see them. And be sure that after you click the Preview button and verify that your comment appears as you intend, that you then click the Submit button to actually post it.
  10. Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect
    Re: jonsblogger1980 (59) TSI is the measurement of solar activity, rising and falling with the 11-year solar (sunspot) cycle. For the 30 years or so of accurate measurements, TSI and sunspot activity are in good agreement. As such, sunspot activity is used a surrogate marker, or proxy, for TSI for periods predating the instrumental record. TSI has been static (actually, fitting a trend line to TSI levels show it declining slightly) while global temps go up. As you can see here: This has been thoroughly discussed by dana1981 here. As Ray Pierrehumbert said about solar warming,
    “That’s a coffin with so many nails in it already that the hard part is finding a place to hammer in a new one.”
    It's not the sun. Further discussions on TSI should probably be carried over to the It's The Sun page. The Yooper
  11. It's the sun
    Sorry for the double post at #664 My browser was showing nothing after page 13 - so I tried again. #665 Archisteel No, I hear what you say architeel - and it is wrong. There were none or negligible AG forcings BY DEFINITION in AD1750 because CO2 levels were steady at about 280ppmv and sulphate aersols, methane etc were not changed by large human release fossil fuel burning. This would be not much different in AD1850. So in fact for the AG forcings - the RELATIVE value IS the ABSOLUTE value because none supposedly existed in AD1750. Get it - anthropogenic forcing is supposed to be a human fossil fuel burning effect. So if you then use these AG forcings to illustrate the portions of warming contributed by each - you need to compare them with the ABSOLUTE value of Solar forcing to effectively compare apples with apples.
  12. How do we know CO2 is causing warming?
    OK TTTM. The analogy wasn't intended to demonstrate anything other than the problem of trying to get comparisons or measurements from a paper that intended to do neither. Sorry that wasn't clear.
  13. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    Re: kdkd (94) See Albatross's comment currently at 93 above. The 2 comments were deleted by request. The 2 posts are still visible in the Deleted Comments bin. The Yooper
  14. It's El Niño
    #7: "I read a myriad of studies suggesting this." It would be helpful if you would provide some references, rather than just 'a myriad.' "But in recent years that trend seems to be dissipating or is too short of a time period to make any meaningful judgements?" Look at the graph in #6. What 'trend seems to be dissipating' are you referring to? Also note the 2nd and 3rd points from the Timmerman paper: - year-to-year variations may become more extreme and - with strong cold events (relative to the warmer mean state) becoming more frequent. Or to put it in terms of a 'forecast': Continued warming with a 30% chance of occasional heavy snow in some areas. 50% chance of record droughts and/or record flooding. 95% chance of skeptics refusing to look at the long term and seizing on minimal data to say 'No its not!' 100% chance of inaction on the part of the US government.
  15. It's freaking cold!
    17: "I wonder what is wrong with the data on this site that suggests all time record cold was recorded in the following countries during 2010:" Perhaps nothing is wrong with the data, but something is wrong with the approach you've taken. Refer to the key line at the top of this posting: A local cold day has nothing to do with the long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.
  16. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    Any thoughts on having an Open Thread, where you can move comments that are off-topic and have no easily-identifiable thread to which they can be moved ? Or where general enquiries/legitimate moans can be posted ? By the way, I would be very surprised if any of the 'resident skeptics' ever managed to come up with a credible guest post...;-)
    Response: It would've been an interesting post and I was encouraging him to post it as it would've stimulated lots of interesting discussion. You never know, he still might, I expect he's reading this thread and knows what we're talking about :-)
  17. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    The kink in the "hockey stick" graph appears to be at the end of 2009. Related to this perhaps ?
  18. How do we know CO2 is causing warming?
    johnd in practice they work much better at sea than in a millpond, given that oceans mix much more than millponds.
  19. It's freaking cold!
    Tom Loeber wrote : "I wonder what is wrong with the data on this site that suggests all time record cold was recorded in the following countries during 2010: Cuba, Philippines, Russia, Namibia, Antarctica, Australia, Bolivia from http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm" You've virtually answered your own question there ! Those few countries had record lows in one, two or three locations (depending on which country you look at), to give a total of 13 minimum records - none of them all-time records. The rest of the list shown ('Records registered during 2010') are for maximum temperatures (I haven't counted them all but there has to be about 350 of them), and include (unlike the minimums) all-time records. Surely the difference is obvious ?
  20. The first global warming skeptic
    chriscanaris @15. You have the jist, but as The Ville suggests, some of the detail is a little awry. Firstly the Sun emits little or no IR radiation; photosynthesis absorbs a lot of visible light (not green, obviously!). Subsequent processes such as respiration convert that energy to vibrational (IR) radiation which the atmosphere can absorb. It is this asymmetry between incoming (visible) and outgoing(IR) radiation that allows the greenhouse effect to function. Burning fuel does not, of course, result exclusively in IR radiation; you may have noticed that gas burners produce blue visible light, log fires yellow and embers red as well as heat.
  21. How do we know CO2 is causing warming?
    The article "Does Back Radiation Heat the Ocean" referenced by Tom Dayton at 09:18 AM provides a couple of interesting charts. The first one shows the rate at which solar radiation is absorbed as it penetrates below the surface. About 13% of the total energy has been absorbed in the top 1mm, or nearly 25% by the 5cm depth at which the bulk temperature was measured in the experiment under discussion. The second one shows the absorption of the DLR which is totally absorbed in the first 10μm in the skin layer. The skin layer is also where the evaporation process takes place extracting heat in the process. One wonders whilst all theses measurements seem able to be clearly defined on paper just how well it works out in practice with a surface that is generally anything but a millpond. ....
  22. The first global warming skeptic
    chriscanaris, thank you for noticing the age of the paper quoted in my post. I could have found more recent and accurate papers, but I wanted to show that the basic physics is quite old and solid. In the seventies the post WWII huge increase in CO2 emissions had just started and the understanding of the impacts on climate was in its infancy. Honestly, it was too early to call for a radical change in the way we use energy and resources in general. Now we have no excuses. RSVP thank you. As for your question, had you read the paper you would have found the answer (pag. 239): "But such experiment have not been made as yet, and, as they would require very expensive apparatus beyond that at my disposal, I have not been in a position to execute them". Never think that scientists are not aware of the problems and limitations of their work.
  23. The first global warming skeptic
    Thanks Phil, that clarifies that issue for me.
  24. jonsblogger1980 at 21:56 PM on 10 October 2010
    Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect
    Perseus asked: "Could this same 40 year lag in increased tempeatures be used as an 'explanation' by a sceptic for the Solar influence which peaked way back in the last century?" Response: "No, the way climate time lag works is when the planet is in energy imbalance (eg - more energy coming in than going out), the planet steadily accumulates heat and warms. As it warms, it radiates more heat out to space until eventually, the energy out equals the energy in and the planet is back in equilibrium. So the way climate time lag works is the planet gradually warms over decades and the energy imbalance gradually shrinks. That's not what we've seen over the last half century. After solar activity peaked in the mid-20th century, the planet's energy imbalance - rather than shrink - has actually increased as CO2 levels have increased." If you look at solar activity, to say it peaked in the mid-20th century you must be referring to sunspot activity. Whilst this is true in absolute terms, the average has continued to rise over the past 50 years, and would suggest the energy imbalance continues, as you have found. Average monthly sunspot activity from 2000-2010 is the highest seen since records began in the 1700s, and there was a rising trend since 1950, only starting to level off in the last few years since the Sun's activity has started to stall. So we could see another 40 years of warming due to the Sun.
  25. The first global warming skeptic
    The Ville @14 asks about emission. A CO2 molecule could "relax" from its excited state emitting a photon of IR, which would obviously be the correct frequency to be absorbed by another molecule: In more technical language: The rules that allow transitions between states in the molecule (known as "selection rules") apply to both absorption and emission. The molecule can also loose energy by collision with other molecules loosing its vibrational(IR) energy by dissipating it into smaller rotational and translational energy. As Riccardo states above, upward conversion of photons is unusual, so this pathway will not lead to photons that can be reabsorbed by CO2 vibrations.
  26. The first global warming skeptic
    I'm not sure you would call it IR energy chris. The plant would retain some of the energy from a visible light photon and re-emit at a less energetic frequency, retaining some of the energy for the processes that it requires to produce glucose etc.
  27. The first global warming skeptic
    Riccardo, Interesting article. Although it's hard to understand why Arrhenius himself did not take charge of experimentation and run these tests for himself.
  28. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    RSVP, while you're eating, try not to worry about any fillings you might have that are 'polluted' with mercury, or that any fish you might be eating might be 'polluted' by lead from fishing-tackle.
  29. The first global warming skeptic
    Thanks Riccardo - so absorption is the key variable. Clearly then, in burning fossil fuel or biomass, we release IR energy which has been 'absorbed' via photosynthesis (some also sequestered via conversion to fossil fuel) but much more importantly release CO2 which increases absorption of further incoming IR which in remaining IR will cause increased temperature. Interesting looking at Hulbert to see how 'old' the science is. I guess for many folk it's all Climate 101 but it's helpful to get one's mind around the concepts. What's even more interesting is how little of this was in public consciousness back in the seventies (which was when I had my last formal exposure to physics).
  30. How do we know CO2 is causing warming?
    @adelady, Actually your analogy is off. A soup on the stove heats by conduction and then convection whereas the ocean specifically doesn't heat by conduction/convection from the downward LW radiation. Thats why they did the experiment at all. There may be some amount of mixing down of the slightly warmer (but still colder than the bulk) skin due to the LW but according to the RC article, essentially the "warming effect" is one of reduced cooling rather than actual "warming".
  31. The first global warming skeptic
    I like Kooiti Masudas description but have some questions: If you had pure CO2, would photons be emitted and absorbed between the CO2 molecules until a path out of the gas was found? Or is the photon frequency degraded when emitted, to a point where it is no longer the correct frequency to be absorbed by another CO2 molecule?
  32. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    Glenn #29 Yeah, I'd love to see a public sin-bin, but I suspect that would have counterproductive consequences.
  33. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    #136, #137 Words influence perception, and this ultimately affects social action. For this reason, terminology can make a difference. As I dine, I will henceforth muse how my soft drink is "polluted" with CO2.
  34. The first global warming skeptic
    chriscanaris, the conversion of UV or visible photons to IR is mediated by absorption and heating of something, earth surface or molecules in the atmosphere. You cannot have (to first order) the "upward" conversion, like from visible to UV or IR to visible. The light from the sun contains UV and visible frequencies; the former is absorbed in the stratosphere by ozone, the latter reaches the ground. Both results in warming where they're absorbed. (On passing, Hulburt 1931 pointed out the essential role of ozone in determining the structure of our atmosphere). In a few words, frequencies that are not absorbed retain their characteristics; if they are absorbed, they produce warming and then increase the IR emission.
  35. Global warming impact on tropical species greater than expected
    Probably safe to say Chris' immediately local population statistics were not influenced by global warming, more a case of natural variability. :-)
  36. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    I'm surprised he used 12 data points when 2 would have been just as authoritative. Steve Goddard obviously has no pride; this is by no means his first foray into obviously bogus pseudo science.
  37. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    kdkd @22 Perhaps, in an ideal blogosphere world, a deletions policy would show an 'audit trail' of what was deleted and why. However, see my comments to John about Functionality Creep.
  38. The first global warming skeptic
    I'm curious about one thing (evidence of my ignorance, no doubt). While energy is transmitted to the earth in a range of wavelengths, are we right to assume that the same energy retains the same wavelengths once in the troposphere? Presumably some UV energy may convert to IR energy and some visible light to UV. Does anyone have any idea of the extent radiation retains its wavelengths and how much if any impact this has on radiative transfer? For example, visible light becomes co-opted by photosynthesis into glucose which in turn powers the creation of complex carbohydrates, formation of proteins, etc, becoming dissipated through the biosphere. However, much of this would be potential energy which is presumably now in forms which would not affect our radiative budget greatly (or does it?). So what happens with visible light, UV light and other wavelengths?
  39. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    A possibility to improve our ability to follow-up on posts we have made and on-going dicscussions would be to tie reporting of comments to out past activity. Once I am logged in, new comments to threads that I have commented on would be useful. Also, possibly a reply option would be interesting. We can reply to comments rather that simply add more comments at the end. And I can then see all replies to my comments, even for quite old posts. This is important. Some serious comment trails can die just because the participants are only able to blog sporadicaly - my life being a case in point. To have the tools to carry on a slow motion conversation would be great, not just respond to the latest and greatest post. As an old IT guy, let me qualify these suggestions with the caveat. Welcome to the wonderful world of Functionality Creep! Keep up the good work man!
  40. Global warming impact on tropical species greater than expected
    chris, all :-) :-)
  41. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    Huba Huba John A Really Nice Trend I Like at SS is the diversification of the sources of articles, not just the rebuttals of sceptic arguments. Compare that with the limited range of Authors at WUWT or JoNova for example. Dialog, rather than preachers at the pulpit. An interesting direction might be to invite 'civilised' sceptics to make posts.
    Response: After some email correspondance, I had invited one of our 'regular skeptics' to write a guest post but he baulked at the idea. In his defence, a number of people who've emailed me thoughts about climate have run from the room screaming when I suggested they write a guest blog post.
  42. Global warming impact on tropical species greater than expected
    johnd, I wouldn't have a clue if it was an El Nino or La Nina - I was so climate illiterate then! Possibly the fact that my son was born means it must have been an El Nino while my next child was a daughter so you might just be right about the transition from an EL Nino to an El Nina. However, the hotel I'd checked into was called the Gateway which I thought was deeply symbolic - I passed :-) while my colleague who checked into a hotel called The Terminus failed :-(. All very pregnant with meaning :-)
  43. It's aerosols
    This paper probably goes more to the heart of your ponderings, Karamanski: Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives As well, see: Uncertainties in climate stabilization
  44. It's freaking cold!
    Ah, I still can't post in that other thread. I wonder what is wrong with the data on this site that suggests all time record cold was recorded in the following countries during 2010: Cuba, Philippines, Russia, Namibia, Antarctica, Australia, Bolivia from http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm Maybe I am just interpreting that wrong? I mean, at first, I was thinking I was responding to the claim that record lows didn't happen in countries and then I see the claim appears to have shifted to record lows for within an entire country and not just locations. I just got to leave this alone. I find forums and message boards are not functional in general.
    Moderator Response: You are not banned from posting in any threads. You, and everyone else, have your comments deleted when they are off the topic of that particular thread. Most of the threads on this Skeptical Science site are narrowly focused on particular topics. You need to pay attention.
  45. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    Something has gone wrong with the comments here... My comment #91 referrs to a different comment #90 from Albatross. I guess when albatross gets back we can salvage some sense with the help of moderators and reconstruct something that makes sense. In the mean time, from memory it seems that Albatross' regression model shows that there's no reasonable justification to perform a quadriatic fit, and that a linear fit is better suited to the data set.
  46. Global warming impact on tropical species greater than expected
    chriscanaris at 15:35 PM, taking you mean 1988, of all the memorable events of that October, which would you attribute to the declining El-Nino and which to the emerging La-Nina. ;-)
  47. Global warming impact on tropical species greater than expected
    Echoing Sphaerica, I've been carefully watching Sydney's deciduous plants - specifically frangipani and jacarandas. It may be just a subjective impression but they seemed to retain their leaves longer and while the frangipani lost all their leaves, many jacarandas seemed to retain leaf cover through winter. I know the jacarandas bloom earlier further north - I remember distinctly from an early October visit to Brisbane just twenty two years ago to be surprised to see the whole city in bloom. The visit and its timing were memorable for the fact that I passed my psychiatry exams in Brisbane and my son was born a few days earlier :-). Admittedly, I haven't made a conscious effort to watch the timing of the shedding and flowering before this year (but I've been inspired to do so by some of the posts on this blog). The difficulty of course lies in the fact that we tend to look out for anomalies when we worry that something may be going amiss. At any rate, I found evidence of earlier seasonal flowering in some settings here and delayed flowering in other settings here both attributed to warmer springtime conditions. Interesting times indeed.
  48. It's freaking cold!
    I am not denying global warming. I know there are record extreme heat events. That recent spell in Russia was horrible, tens of thousands died. I don't know what is going to happen. Is the tipping point going to be run away global warming? Some 90% of the time for the last million years the earth has been colder than now. The interglacials have been the exception, like minor perturbations. The most stable state appears to be colder than now. I think that finding that melting of the caps immediately preceded glaciation for the last two major swings is interesting. I think I posted it elsewhere, the thread where I think I am still disallowed to post. What is wrong with the Hamaker hypothesis? The noctilucents seem to be a strong indicator that it has merit. Hamaker was apparently unaware of them and yet, their growing in frequency and duration is alarming and greatly supporting John Hamaker's thesis. I think it was Doug who posted a link to a paper purporting to explain how they don't signify any concern of climate change, the one that only used 45 years of their record out of 125 to predict they are basically of no concern. In that paper it also said they have never reached as much extent as when they first appeared. That is totally false. What leads people to give false data, to support the climate change deniers? My understanding is that fossil fuel companies pay millions each year to promote propaganda to keep us from seeking a carbon neutral future. Seen the satellite pictures of the carbon dioxide release we are doing? Who would deny that is not changing the weather, the climate? All in all, I don't know what is going to happen. I do think there is a real possibility that without much warning or set trend, the climate could tip, tip drastically and very possibly to more cold. It appears to be like a higher energy phase state of the planet, triggered by global warming that does not correct itself for perhaps 100,000 years. I don't know. I think any one who says they know what the future holds is not adhering to science. Short term trends do not show tipping, do not show any proclivity for sudden change and yet, such has happened for the planet and they are liable to happen again. I, for one, am concerned enough to have two carbon neutral vehicles, to seek wind and photovoltaics for my electricity production, to farm my own food and live in a place that is recorded as having relatively stable weather right through ice ages. I will leave you to do what you want. I think it borders on being criminal to state you know what is going to happen rather than try to weigh evidence in an attempt to find most likely theories. I wish I were strong enough to get folks off the fossil fuel habit and start respecting this biosphere as our heritage and responsibility but I think we are oh so distracted by the need for money, by the need to make wars to secure the oil and the opium poppies to get more money. We lead a token existence.
    Moderator Response: Don't stuff a single comment with multiple topics, when some of those topics are off topic for the particular post at the top of that particular page. We will simply delete the entire comment--even the part that is on topic. You need to pay attention.
  49. It's aerosols
    While it's not an answer to your questions, there's more useful background information on aerosols at How much did aerosols contribute to mid-20th century cooling? See also treatments at RealClimate: An Aerosol Tour de Forcing Aerosol formation and climate, Part I Aerosol effects and climate, Part II: the role of nucleation and cosmic rays
  50. Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    One thought I'll offer is that you might want to consider moving the recent comments list to somewhere on the home page. Perhaps cut down the recent posts a little bit and then have a recent comments section right after it. The recent comments could just have the commenter name, the name of the post on which they are commenting and then the first sentence of their comment. This would mean that when readers first land here they would see both recent posts and recent comments simultaneously. This will keep threads not on the recent posts list alive by showing if people are still commenting on them. It seems to me that the number of comments submitted that the moderator notes would be more appropriate under a pre-existing post/thread has also increased of late. I believe this is because commenters feel that their comments only have currency if they are submitted under the most recent post. I understand that you have recent comments listed only one click removed from the home page, but each click is the equivalent of another ten mile drive down the information highway. Listing both recent posts and recent comments on the home page is a technique I have seen used in sites ranging from telemark skiing tips to other climate change discussions. It seems to work well for keeping old posts alive and for keeping comments under the appropriate thread. Just a thought. What you have created is outstanding, so this suggestion might be near or in the "Don't mess with success" category. But if you feel that you are telling people more and more often which threads would be more appropriate for their comments, you might give it a try.... Thanks for your superb work here and keep up the high standards.

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