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Ned at 02:01 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Earlier in this thread I wrote: I think there are no shortage of cases where people make incoherent arguments in support of mainstream climate science. (If people doubt this, I can go into detail in another comment). In case anyone doubts this, let me point to the issue of Arctic sea ice. Having just spent the summer "watching the ice melt" on a variety of blogs on both "sides" I must ruefully say that nobody has a monopoly on incoherence. Overall, at the end of the season the result was basically exactly what would be predicted from the trend over the past few decades. But the unpredictable fits and starts along the way led many commenters on each side to engage in rather incoherent and self-deceptive arguments. When the ice was doing what Blogger X wanted it to be doing, the decline (or lack of decline) was real. When it wasn't cooperating, this was due to the winds, compaction/dispersion, the Beaufort Gyre, errors in the satellite analysis, or whatever. People would focus on ice extent one month, ice area the next month. The energy put into it all was impressive, even if the arguments were not especially consistent over time. Obviously, there was plenty of incoherence on both "sides", but the ice goes ahead and does what it does regardless. The fact that Steve Goddard is routinely incoherent and illogical would not actually prevent the ice from "recovering", and the fact that Neven's commenters are often opportunistic in their interpretation of events would not somehow mean that the ice would have to refuse to decline as predicted. So by all means, let's try to be reasonably coherent in our arguments. But there is plenty of incoherence on both sides, and more importantly the fact that one's rhetorical opponents seem incoherent doesn't mean that your side will be proven right! ------------------- [No, I'm not trying to draw a false equivalence between Goddard/WUWT and the commenters on Neven's sea ice blog. In spite of the way that discussions on the latter often seemed to involve "special pleading", there was still a huge amount of value in that blog, and I look forward to reading it next summer. The same cannot be said of SG/WUWT.] -
Kaj L at 02:00 AM on 8 October 2010We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
No Little Ice Age in Japan? http://zacost.zamg.ac.at/phaeno_portal/was-so-los-ist.html In the end of the page: "Kirschblüte in Japan" In this chart there are dates of full-flowering of cherry trees in Kyoto of years 700 to 2000. No LIA, but the recent warming is visible. http://tinyurl.com/39nqn7m Flowering of cherry trees in Japan does no reveal any LIA: https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/MiyaharaHiroko08-d/AonoKazui07-Aug23-KyotoSpring.pdf http://www.envi.osakafu-u.ac.jp/atmenv/aono/KyoPhenoTemp4.html -
DSL at 01:55 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Chris, in my opinion, the most instructive exchange is in the lengthy comment stream for the RC post The Montford Delusion. -
Ken Lambert at 01:42 AM on 8 October 2010It's the sun
Ned #630 How about we agree on 0.2-0.5W/sq.m for the range of Solar forcing since AD1725. Gridding a very small scale graph I get AD1725 for when the Solar forcing crosses above the 'zero' axis which is pretty close to the end of the Maunder minimum around AD1715. KR #631 "Was the climate at equilibrium in 900AD? No. Was it in equilibrium in 1880? In 1750? No and no. But we can certainly look at changes in forcings versus changes in climate, and determine from magnitude and correlation which forcing changes are the dominant drivers of the current temperatures." Well you tell me KR. How do you know it was NO and NO? Prima facie, the zero axis on the graph implies that positive Solar forcings will add energy and warm the Earth and negative forcings will lose energy and cool the Earth. Is the 'zero' axis not the zero Solar forcing and equilibrium TSI where the Earth neither warms nor cools due to Solar?? If not what else could it be?? If you look at the areas under both Solar and 'All other Forcings' curves in Fig 613 back to the start of the current warming ARO AD1725 they both represent the energy added to the Earth system and they both add together. I don't have an electronic way of doing this but could scan this with an ACAD planimeter and get an estimate on a reasonably scaled graph. kdkd could probably do this with the raw data. Using some crude geometry I have calculated the area under the Solar curve at 9300E20 Joules and the 'All Other Forcings' curve at 10600E20 Joules. I assume that 'all other' means every forcing on your chart at #623 netted into one curve. This gives a roughly 45/55% ratio Solar/All Other for not just the first half of the 20th century - but the whole period 1725 up to 2000. My point which brought on this debate is that if the 'zero' axis on any of the forcings (but Solar is most important due to its constant presence) was shifted down or up by a small amount - a large extra slice of area is added or subtracted from the area under the curve. eg 0.05W/sq.m shift over 250 years is over 2000E20 Joules in added or lost energy. I assume you are also not including the climate response forcings (IR cooling and WV feedbacks) in this analysis which net currently is -0.7 W/sq.m and would give a significant energy loss area under its curve to add to the Solar and All Other above. We are assuming here that Volcanic evens itself out over time which curve seems to be roughly equal in area above and below its 'zero' axis. When you talk of modelling temperatures and forcings - I assume you mean land and ocean temperatures - the response of which would have a thermal lag, as 90%+ of the calculated energy imbalance should reside in the oceans which have huge thermal mass. What would be the models' general assumptions regarding thermal lags in that composite temperature? -
JMurphy at 01:29 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
chriscanaris wrote : "...I'd be interested in a link to Judith Curry's misadventures/misdemeanours on RealClimate." Just in case Mike's away at the moment, and without getting into page numbers, etc., I think you will find a good round-up, including relevant links, at Climate Progress, if that is a site that you don't object to. -
Ned at 01:24 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
chriscanaris writes some nice things about my excessively long rant earlier in this thread. He then tries to disagree with me on some points: Actually, with respect, I think there is far too much labelling of positions taken by various players. I would suggest that this "labeling" is largely an outcome of the exact situation I was lamenting. That is to say, even though we don't have little colored icons next to our names saying "Ned is on Team A, So-And-So is on Team B" most people self-organize into those groups anyway, based on their behavior here. I think this is a bad thing. I would like to break this pattern. chriscanaris continues: I often feel I have to couch what I say with great care to maintain credibility as a poster - far more care than if I was perceived as a card carrying warmist. [...] Overall, this site is far more tolerant of sceptics than the other players in the AGW team. Still, the feeling of differing standards and expectations doesn't go away. I can understand all of that. I would like to think that this site does a pretty good job of encouraging polite discussion, thanks largely to (a) the requirement that people register before commenting, (b) the fairly rigorous comments policy, and (c) the example set by John Cook, who always seems to administer this site with grace and good humor. At the same time, I know that these efforts aren't perfect, and that for a number of reasons it probably feels subjectively less welcoming to someone on the "skeptic" side than to those of us who are already predisposed to agree with the overall weltanschauung of the site. That disparity will probably never be eliminated, though we should do what we can to minimize it! A note, though, about your comment re: maintaining credibility. Credibility is, of course, in the eye of the beholder, and on this site, judgments of credibility will obviously involve both science and "style" (for lack of a better word). Being polite, thoughtful, reasonable, and careful in how you "couch what you say" will all help, of course, but that can only get you so far. -
gallopingcamel at 01:12 AM on 8 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Even though I am usually swimming against the tide here, I hope you will accept my heartfelt congratulations. Great job! -
chris1204 at 01:08 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Mike, I didn't see your commented until after I'd finished writing my bit but I'd be interested in a link to Judith Curry's misadventures/misdemeanours on RealClimate. -
chris1204 at 01:02 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Doug, to my surprise (thanks to Google), I discovered that 'post-normal science' rates a page in Wikipedia’ which states: 'Post-Normal Science is a concept developed by Silvio Funtowicz and Jerome Ravetz, attempting to characterise a methodology of inquiry that is appropriate for cases where "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent" (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991). It is primarily applied in the context of long-term issues where there is less available information than is desired by stakeholders.' Moreover (in the same article): 'Few mainstream scientists advocate the approaches taken by post-normal science, even among those who agree with the goals of Funtowicz and Ravetz, though the idea has gained some publicity in recent times, appearing prominently in an article published in The Guardian in March 2007... Some... argue that there seems to be little to distinguish post-normal science from the 'skewed cargo cult science’ described by Richard Feynman in 1974.' The latter was used 'to negatively characterize research in the soft sciences (psychology and psychiatry in particular) - arguing that they have the semblance of being scientific, but are missing "a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty".' I'd certainly agree that some of what passes for research in my field readily meets the definition of cargo-cult science :-\. People design research projects which generate lots of numbers which allow for sophisticated statistics which often bear a tenuous relationship to clinical realities. I would also acknowledge that much of the clinical decision making in psychiatry comprises 'post-normal science' in which the diagnosis and treatment of a patient equates to a hypothesis which is at best testable 'on the run' - you try this treatment hoping it works - if it doesn't, you try something else, and so it goes. 'Post-normal science' and 'cargo cult science' seem to me to be rather different beasts. 'Post-normal science' seems a concept very much applicable in the context of the understandable urgency that many feel when approaching AGW given the perception of many that dire outcomes will follow if we don't act now. 'Post-normal science' in short sounds like the sort of work a nation might undertake in wartime. The Manhattan Project, while soundly based in physics, might I suspect partake of this category (superb science undertaken in a climate of urgency and uncertainty with horrible outcomes but that's not germane to my point - the project had a specific goal which it attained in spectacular fashion). It certainly wasn't 'cargo cult science.' By contrast, wartime analyses of the carpet bombing of Germany undertaken with ultimately similar goals in mind would be a good example of 'cargo cult science.' The effectiveness (let alone morality) of strategic bombing of Germany’ with their enormous civilian casualties has been the subject of much debate. German production rose despite the bombings and civilian morale held up remarkably well. The belief that Allied bombing efforts were meeting their goals despite a massive cost in aircrew and aircraft reflected a great deal of wishful thinking. In short, a policy decision (strategic bombing)based on military science as then understood undertaken in conditions of a 'post-normal' decision making framework in retrospect seems to have degenerated into a horrific 'cargo cult science' scenario. So to come back on topic, 'post-normal' science need not be a pejorative term. I practice 'post-normal' science daily striving to avoid 'cargo cult science.' Equally, those who practice 'post-normal' science often are not aware that this is what they are doing. They need to be be reminded of the fact and of the limitations this imposes on them. My colleagues in internal medicine and surgery would probably be quite offended if I suggested to them that much of modern medicine despite the plethora of highly sophisticated investigations actually fits into the paradigm of 'post-normal science.' This applies all the more in an age when the prevailing mantra in medicine and psychiatry is 'evidence based treatment' often based on analyses of highly selected populations bearing little semblance to real patients in real clinical settings. I haven't had the opportunity of acquainting myself with Judith Curry's battles in the blogosphere (I'm still very much a newcomer to this area). However, I can see how the notion of 'post-normal' science might raise hackles. Whether it ought to do so is another question. -
The Skeptical Chymist at 00:41 AM on 8 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Chris @43, 51 Everyone who approaches commenting on these sites from a position of intellectual honesty should be prepared to call out incoherence, even if it's from their own "side". However, I would wager that the motivation to rebut a comment is somewhat proportional to how wrong it is and so most of the slap-downs on this site are for the most incoherent comments, which tend to be from "skeptics". In any dialogue, tone, thoughtfulness and a lack of crazy go a long way, even when you disagree. For this reason I actually read your comments, while I may skim over those from people who mostly just repeat zombie arguments. With regard to Judith Curry, the way I see it, when you are a scientist, commenting in your field, then people are going to expect you to act like a scientist. Doesn't mean you have to be nice, but you should attempt to be accurate. When Dr Curry made (clearly incorrect) statements at RealClimate and then admitted she was essentially just repeating claims in a book she had read, she failed to show proper scientific skepticism IMHO. This can happen to the best of us and could have been fixed if she had taken responsibility and admitted she was wrong (calling out her own incoherence if you will) but unfortunately she didn't. -
Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
RSVP - You might want to review the "Common Sense" fallacy. It is, unfortunately, rather common... Too much CO2 is now known to cause a number of harmful consequences, albeit with the exact scale of warming (climate sensitivity) not as well established as we would like. It's entirely reasonable to call that a pollutant. -
JMurphy at 00:35 AM on 8 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
You have it just right, I think. I used to read and comment on the 'Comment is Free' section of The Guardian (UK) but it got too tiring and boring reading the same old zombie arguments (repeated by the same people), or wading through the flood of one-off comments from people who can register and post immediately, and who then disappear. I think The Guardian is simply after traffic but it means that any articles by the likes of Monbiot or Hansen, for example, are immediately swamped in denial from whichever denial website has asked their readers to flood the comments with bizarre, bemusing and befuddled views. You sometimes get the odd flood here but there are more than enough articles and more than enough intelligent and rational posters to mop up any stray bizarreness ! Keep up the good work. -
Alexandre at 23:52 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Way to go. Keep it draconian. Keep it worth reading. I wonder why you had a slight drop (Younger Dryas!) in comments just after the iPhone app was released. -
Doug Bostrom at 23:36 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Harald, sorry to hear it, but looking at it from the optimist's viewpoint perhaps folks in Norway are more inclined to subscribe to newspapers across the board (I have no idea of the reality behind that speculation). Here in the U.S. we have a very depressing situation with newspaper circulation numbers, and publishers don't seem to understand that responding to that problem can't be solved by firing newsroom staff so as to prop up profits. A death spiral, very sad, bad for our system; I don't think specialist websites and the like are a substitute. -
Harald Korneliussen at 23:04 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Doug Bostrom: That may work for New Scientist, but one of the main newspapers in Norway, Dagbladet, did the same. Their comments are abysmal. Looks like racists, conspiracy theorists and political extremists of all stripes are willing to fork over $1 per month for a podium. -
Doug Bostrom at 22:51 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Pretty amazing, NewYorkJ. Not so long ago, New Scientist changed their arrangement so that only formal subscribers to the magazine may comment. In other words, making comments was no longer "free" as in free beer but indirectly involved forking over some money. The slump in the number of comments was astonishing, the improvement in quality (not surprisingly) remarkable. I've often wondered if setting a budget on the number of comments allowed per user over a given time span would help solve the "tragedy of the commons" effect on public discussion sites. If for instance one had the opportunity to make just 4 comments per day, I have to think it would have a positive effect on the quality of remarks. However, such a policy ought to also somehow recognize merit, and doing that is a bit of a problem because it calls for judgment. -
Doug Bostrom at 22:39 PM on 7 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Chris, my observation is that unless used very carefully, remarks about "tribalism" and "post-normal science" exhibit the same properties as "process corruption" and "publication bias" or "group think." I don't think Juditch Curry intends it this way, but for many of her on again, off again enthusiasts, focusing on "tribalism" is a way of casting aspersions on research findings in general without actually showing how any specific research finding is unreliable. Vaguely targeted innuendo is a rhetorical magic trick. -
CBDunkerson at 22:26 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
RSVP #115: "It doesnt take facts; just common sense." I think I'll go with the facts any way. One man's 'common sense' is another man's 'sheer lunacy'. -
Doug Bostrom at 22:23 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
t doesnt take facts; just common sense. Labelling CO2 as a pollutant is absurd. That's funny! One of GOP political consultant Luntz's suggestions in his advice on how to delay creating regulations suggested by scientific findings is to invoke "common sense." RSVP's referral is coincidence, I'm honestly sure, but amusing all the same. Meanwhile, even though RSVP's been provided w/links straight to EPA's finding and support information, notice how RSVP still can only say "it's absurd" without actually saying why. "I doubt it" is not an argument. -
Doug Bostrom at 22:16 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
Nice illustration of one of the main points of the post, there, BP. For the rest of "us," please note that BP's graph shows a little slice of the record in the longer graph above. BP's particularly fine place kick: Make a slanted (curved) point by truncating data, kick the ball right offsides by positing an absurd extrapolation. -
Turboblocke at 22:07 PM on 7 October 2010There's no tropospheric hot spot
That's amazing: a year later and you are so right. Now it's the ratio of the surface and tropospheric trends. http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/9/2148/pdf -
Daniel Bailey at 21:42 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
Re: TimTheToolMan (51)"Perhaps our understanding of ENSO really isn't as sound as you'd like to believe."
You made some typo's. You spelled it O-U-R when you should have spelled it M-Y, and used Y-O-U-'-D instead of I-'-D. Here's a corrected version:"Perhaps my understanding of ENSO really isn't as sound as I'd like to believe."
There, that's better. In all seriousness, now, what on Earth would lead you to make such a statement? The Yooper -
Daniel Bailey at 21:37 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
Re: Berényi Péter (49) I'm going to be kind & assume you are being fascetious with your comment. Otherwise, that was the looniest comment I've ever seen you make. Perhaps I missed a few, though. The Yooper -
Berényi Péter at 21:21 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
#50 kdkd at 21:05 PM on 7 October, 2010 It's very poor form to show data without properly attributing the source of the raw data You are right. It's the Sea Level Change page at the University of Colorado at Boulder site. You can also find the data file there. The method was simple least square fit for a parabola. -
TimTheToolMan at 21:11 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
@adlady Perhaps our understanding of ENSO really isn't as sound as you'd like to believe. -
kdkd at 21:05 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
BP #49 It's very poor form to show data without properly attributing the source of the raw data (there's something in the graph title but this is not really good enough). Also poor form is to show a curve fit without explaining the methodology used to fit the curve. I'm happy to do some regression diagnostics to see if the curve fit is justified if you point to the location of the raw data (it's not terribly easy to find from a google search of the graph title). -
Berényi Péter at 20:45 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
#42 doug_bostrom at 16:47 PM on 7 October, 2010 Notice, sea level sort of bounces along, upward The satellite record shows otherwise. If it goes on like this, in 2100 sea level would be below its present day value by 27.5 cm. Nothing scary, really, although it may kill off some shallow coral reefs by exposing them to air. However, by the year 3000 it would drop by 56.6 m, which is deep ice age. In this case I guess Canada should join the Estados Unidos Mexicanos as soon as practicable, then reclaim Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah along with parts of Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas and Colorado.
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kdkd at 19:49 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
RSVP #115: In other news, Cigarettes are good for you:
Hmm, or maybe it's just that brand ;) Presumably you're posting such ridiculous arguments to expose the stupidity of the so-called sceptic position?
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adelady at 19:41 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
So if the energy required (pick a number) can accumulate in a matter of days, how can an el Nino last for months and months? It doesn't generate its own energy. So where is it coming from, how is it sustained for such a long period, why is it sustained for so long? -
JMurphy at 19:05 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
RSVP wrote : "It doesnt take facts; just common sense. Labelling CO2 as a pollutant is absurd. Maybe you can explain why refined petrolium products or coal havent received this qualification right from the get go." So, you're saying that because coal wasn't labelled as a pollutant hundreds of years ago (before the US Supreme Court existed), and because refined petroleum products weren't labelled as pollutants at least a hundred years ago, therefore we can't label anything connected with it as a pollutant now ? Surely not. Perhaps we should still be allowed to disperse raw sewage into rivers, because it wasn't labelled as a pollutant hundreds of years ago ? -
Riccardo at 19:03 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
RSVP, don't you consider the recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill pollution? And what about oil-derived fertilizers flowing in the oceans? Oil, fertilizers, CO2 and whatever, are pollutants if they're in the "wrong" place in sufficient quantities. -
RSVP at 18:53 PM on 7 October 2010Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
michael sweet #114 It doesnt take facts; just common sense. Labelling CO2 as a pollutant is absurd. Maybe you can explain why refined petrolium products or coal havent received this qualification right from the get go. This would leave all kind of legal space for the combustion of renewable carbon sources, not to mention the peace of mind to breath with a clear conscience. -
chris1204 at 18:21 PM on 7 October 2010The value of coherence in science
Interestingly, I find myself drawn to Judith Curry precisely because she is very mainstream in relation to climate science but deals with those who aren't quite on side with courtesy and respect. I think the sceptic community value this far more than any musings on 'post-normal' science. I'm certainly not qualified to comment on her take on McIntyre - I lack the requisite background in statistics. However, no blogger proposing serious engagement with climate science can afford to leave McIntyre to out of the debate. I'm struck by the relative absence of argument as to his statistical methodology (or more accurately by my failure to notice arguments addressing the issue). Perhaps in the interests of coherence, some folk better equipped than I might care to post some comments. As far as tribalism is concerned, I have observed that those most firmly immersed in tribes/subcultures be they political parties, religious minority groups, recent immigrants to a new land, special interest groups, and the like all too often cannot see the mob mentality permeating their behaviour. Membership of a 'tribe' discourages the requisite self-reflection. As a so-called rootless cosmopolitan who has close ties with three continents and would be best described as 'non-clubbable,' I have seen tribalism operating in a wide array of contexts. Many of my patients moreover (whistle-blowers for example) suffer the consequences of expulsion from the 'tribe.' I would prefer to see myself as a member of one tribe only - the human race. For a lighter take on tribalism, see here. -
MattJ at 17:58 PM on 7 October 2010The value of coherence in science
I love this podcast! The examples of non-existent apples and cheap sheep at unknown price are great! -
TimTheToolMan at 17:57 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
What has Planck's Law got to do with the amount of energy input into the ocean from the sun? On the same day the same energy is radiated out to space minus that tiny portion that accumulates. But the point is that you wondered where the energy comes from ands the answer is that its well and truely there. -
Riccardo at 17:53 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
I'm not a fan of number of hits or number of comments races. Rather it's important that an increase in the number of comments (which is good) does not deteriorate quality. I don't know how to measure it, if even possible. With some inevitable ups and downs, it looks in pretty good shape. -
scaddenp at 17:53 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
Nope - because you cant cheat Planck's Law. Try again. -
TimTheToolMan at 17:50 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
In fact I'd overestimated the amount accumulated each year. Its actually less than 1 x 10^22 Joules. So to answer scaddenp, the "mechanism" is a single sunny day puts more energy into the upper ocean than is "accumulated" all year. -
kdkd at 17:43 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Thanks John. Yet another thing I've been meaning to mention to you but haven't due to not wanting to overwhelm :) -
scaddenp at 17:42 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
TTTM - and by what mechanism "could" you accumulate that heat in days? Can we stick plausible physics? -
nealjking at 17:25 PM on 7 October 2010The value of coherence in science
To boil it down, Judith Curry is an expert in atmospheric studies, and gives mainstream views on this topic. She knows nothing special about palaeoclimate studies, and chose to accept McIntyre's version of the debate, hook, line & sinker, rather than to consult people she knows who actually work in the field. Her wallowing in the ClimateAudit mania was disappointing and embarrassing. Her postings I have seen on her new blog tend to be open-ended bringing up of issues, which she then turns over to essentially unguided commenting. It's all very polite, but I haven't so far seen anything that would lead to clarification or resolution of anything. -
NewYorkJ at 17:04 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
"My guess is this is due to our strict Comments Policy and the fact that registration is compulsory before you can submit a comment" There's a test for this effect. Old AccuWeather page with no registration required: http://global-warming.accuweather.com/ New AccuWeather page with registration required: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/Science I would estimate there are 10X as many comments on the average post in their old format. Registration probably eliminates some of the obvious trolls and noise, so I think that's a good thing.Response: 10 times as many? Yikes! -
TimTheToolMan at 16:54 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
@adelady I am continually astonished by people's misunderstanding of the energy flow associated with the earth. The earth receives about 385 x 10^22 Joules of energy every year. We had been accumulating somewhere between 5 and 10 x 10^22 Joules every year in our oceans. Not recently though. You can easily see that the earth receives from the sun and radiates away to space many, many times that which it accumulates even at the best of times. In answer to your question or rather to put it into perspective, the heat you speak of could accumulate in a matter of days if not hours. -
Doug Bostrom at 16:47 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
TTTM, look at this graph. Notice, sea level sort of bounces along, upward:
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archiesteel at 16:41 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
@TTTM: "So sea levels are dropping which is further confirmation that the ocean heat content isn't increasing." Yeah, except Sea Levels aren't dropping. That itsy bisty fact kinda demolishes your whole argument, doesn't it? -
Doug Bostrom at 16:38 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
Surely there must be some reasonably technology-neutral site for discussing energy liberation, capture, transmission, storage, general manipulation? I can't think of one but perhaps somebody else can make a suggestion. Maybe a case of "be careful what we wish for"-- too many obsessions, not enough time... -
adelady at 16:35 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
Tim TTM - just how sure are you that nothing at all is happening in the deep ocean? Unless you're involved in some measurement project that we've not heard about, I'd be a bit more cautious. Where exactly will the heat to drive the next el Nino come from? El Ninos don't create heat, they only redistribute it. Whatever process has a La Nina like the current one showing lower temperatures is the other side of the el Nino coin. After this La Nina there **will** be an el Nino. Maybe straight away, maybe 3 years. Either way, the heat released will not come from nowhere. Just because we can't identify it now doesn't mean we won't see it then. -
gallopingcamel at 16:28 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
scaddenp, Thanks for that Grootes & Stuiver paper. I hope to have something to report in about a month. Before my trip to Asheville I will be visiting a 75 MW photo-voltaic power plant and a solar generator located on an 18,000 acre site. I wonder whether these technologies come within the scope of this blog? -
adelady at 16:25 PM on 7 October 2010Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
Completely OT except it is housekeeping. The IPCC Reports Science or Spin thread is a bit mucked up, with comments and moderator's remarks blanking each other out. On Topic. Keep the moderation as it is. And if things get a bit difficult - shift (or delete) comments belonging to other threads sooner than you sometimes do. Not always necessary, but a good move from time to time. -
TimTheToolMan at 16:07 PM on 7 October 2010Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
So sea levels are dropping which is further confirmation that the ocean heat content isn't increasing. What does this say about the radiative imbalance recently? It can only say one thing...the earth is as warm as it should be. Maybe even warmer than it should be. Anthropogenic CO2 isn't heating it right now. Its ironic that the author should be criticising cherry picking so agressively and yet in the very same breath mention record hot temperatures.
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