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Comments 107801 to 107850:

  1. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    CO2 cannot "enter" the air, since "air" takes its definition from its constituents, CO2 being one of them. The Clean Air Act targeted CO emmissions as these are toxic. The idea that CO2 is pollutant is absurd since according to AGW if it were completely removed from the atmosphere we would all perish. First, from a lack of food and second from temperatures dropping (according to AGW).
  2. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    pbjamm, Sorry if I was not clear. Your position on this was evident to me, I was not criticizing you :)
  3. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    TIS #6: "My article on the original theory based on Arrhenius is here:" What is with the 'skeptic' tendency to focus on disputing 100+ year old science? Are they stuck in the wrong century or something? From the article; "Unfortunately it was 80 years before it could fully be proven as incorrect and as a result the flawed idea had plenty of time to become well entrenched in the scientific community." So this is to be a work of fiction? In reality Arrhenius's idea of human CO2 emissions increasing global temperatures was completely rejected based on reasonable but ultimately incorrect objections; At the time instrument quality was not sufficient to show the IR bands absorbed by CO2 but not water vapor, scientists hadn't considered that CO2 occurs at higher altitudes than water vapor and thus would have a warming impact even if they DID overlap totally, and it was believed that the oceans would be able to absorb all human CO2 emissions because they didn't consider the surface saturation rate. Et cetera. Arrhenius's theory was consequently all but forgotten for decades until the accumulating evidence proved him right. The exact opposite of the scenario presented in the story. I see below that Agnstrom is cited. It was Angstrom who made the aforementioned incorrect assumptions about the IR absorption of CO2, so apparently TIS is aware of some of this but chose to present a false narrative anyway... even claiming Angstrom's findings as correct when they've been proven to be completely wrong for many decades now.
  4. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    "The Earth was at it's warmest period from about 5,000-9,000 years ago when CO2 was in the 260-270ppm range. The Earth has cooled over the past 5,000 years while CO2 has gone up." When it was physically closer to the sun during the nothern hemisphere summer.
  5. The Inconvenient Skeptic at 05:07 AM on 5 October 2010
    Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Dana, The problem with modeling the future is that those same models cannot be used to explain the past. For instance. The warming at the end of the last glacial is a serious problem for computer models that depend on CO2 levels. If the feedback of the global climate is so sensitive to CO2 levels then the any change in CO2 would cause unbounded feedback and thermal runaway. Since the Earth is stable (within a temperature range, +/- 7C over the past 1 million years) there has never been a thermal runaway. The reason is that the Earth is a stable system. Your chart showing CO2 levels for the past 10,000 years shows a gradual increase in CO2 levels for basically the whole period until anthropogenic CO2 changed the path. The problem is that the steady increase in CO2 has not caused a steady increase in global temperatures. Temperature has been widely variable in the past 10,000 years. The Earth was at it's warmest period from about 5,000-9,000 years ago when CO2 was in the 260-270ppm range. The Earth has cooled over the past 5,000 years while CO2 has gone up. It is that disconnect between temperature and CO2 that I am referring to. While it is fun to focus on short term (our lifetime is very short scale climate wise) changes, it is the long term that matters. If the climate is so sensitive to CO2 that it was responsible for the end of the last glacial, then the increases in the past 5,000 should have caused warming. The increases CO2 for the past 5,000 years did not. Any model that tries to deal with that disconnect fails. That is why models have not been able to deal with the past. Since they cannot do that, they cannot be trusted for the future. I should have stated that the brightness temp post was the most convincing argument showing CO2 matters. Again, I don't argue the anthropogenic impact on CO2 levels, but what impact that CO2 will have on the temperature. John Kehr The Inconvenient Skeptic
    Moderator Response: See the Argument CO2 is not the only driver of climate.
  6. An underwater hockey stick
    I'm going to leave the kitchen in your hands, johnd. We're into completely different cuisine than the thread topic.
  7. An underwater hockey stick
    doug_bostrom at 04:46 AM, what is clear to me that for many people the weather and the climate is a matter for conversation or of academic interest hence the interest in the theories, formulas and peer reviewed papers and little appreciation of how it all manifests itself in the real world. On the other hand there are others who are involved in the world of weather, or whose world is subject to the vagaries of the weather and the climate, and look for explanations for what is so readily observed. This is where I would put myself accounting for the differences of our perspectives. As far as the awareness of the IOD, firstly you have to distinguish between IO data and IOD data, but go back and read that email again to distinguish between awareness and implementation.
  8. An underwater hockey stick
    TOP, try to get your terminology correct. "Skeptics are often wrong" is not an ad hominem attack, nor is saying "skeptics often scurry to the refuge of claiming to be the victims of an ad hominem attack" the real article. In the specific case, I was remarking on a general feature you'd just demonstrated, namely that skeptics are frequently found demanding that others answer questions they're capable of answering themselves. On the other hand, saying "TOP is stupid" while ignoring your errors would be an example of an ad hominem attack. Also, temperature times mass times specific heat equates to energy, TOP. Sometimes it's possible to get so tangled in terminology that one misses the point.
  9. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    I agree that the 3 year period is far too short to show anything useful and that choosing mid 2007 as a start date would be cherrypicking. I only mentioned it because of the comments by nofreewind @25.
  10. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    Riccardo #19 "I'd love to read more thoughtful comments here at SkS" Warmest actually have it pretty easy since they only have to convince politicians who know nothing about science. Is that thoughtful enough?
  11. An underwater hockey stick
    TOP #54: Again, your claim that the oceans are accumulating heat faster than the atmosphere is true, but not at all "curious". That is an expected result of global warming. You seem to claim that it is NOT due to global warming, but dance around precisely where this energy is supposed to be coming from. Are you hinting at sea floor volcanism driving observed warming? It'd be a bad joke if you were, but you don't really say. As to the semantic flim-flammery with temperature vs energy... sorry, can't be bothered.
  12. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Incidently The Inconvenient Skeptic, is your post not merely link baiting?
  13. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    The Inconvenient Skeptic, 'debunking' Aarhenius is all very well but his work has been superceded by others many times over. I would recomend Ramanathan and Coakley as a good place to start getting up to speed on the modern (i.e post 1905) science.
  14. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Byron - thanks, and fair point. I didn't intend to imply that the increased extinction rate was solely due to climate change. I'll modify the wording.
  15. An underwater hockey stick
    Was that supposed to be a dramatic unveiling, JohnD? I'm sorry, I just don't get the "ah, hah!" What I read is that there's a lag in incorporating theoretical treatment of Australia's regional climate and its external influences into models used by the Australian weather bureau. Is this supposed to be a black mark on climate science in general? Extending our food fun, "where's the beef?" I see a bun but no patty, it's not the meal I was promised. I think I understand from your general remarks here that you're involved in agriculture in Australia. If I'm right, inter-annual climate/weather predictions having to do w/Australia are certainly going to be near and dear to you. Supposing I'm right, I speculate perhaps you're so close to this subject that it's relative importance in the grand scheme of things is viewed very differently by you as opposed to folks in the wider world. On a more general note, your quote seems to indicate a general awareness of the IOD, hardly bolstering your case that it's been studiously ignored or exemplifies a black hole of ignorance in Australian climate research circles. Speaking of red herrings, exactly what does all this have to do with the topic of this thread?
  16. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    John Kehr - I suggest you click some of the links in this article. You might learn something. Your claim "The only empirical evidence you have ever posted is based on differences in brightness temperature" is false and refuted by those links. As for the accuracy of climate models, in addition to the 'fingerprints' article linked in this rebuttal, I also suggest you read the Advanced rebuttal to 'Hansen's 1988 predictions were wrong'. I'm not sure why you seem to consider Judith Curry the world's foremost authority on climate models, since unlike James Hanse, she's not even a climate modeler. As Senator Pat Moynihan once said, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts."
  17. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Excellent post Dana (once again!). Just a small point: is it worth pointing out that the extinction rate is currently primarily due to habitat destruction/land use change, plus widespread agricultural practices? Climate change will increasingly contribute to this and exacerbate the problem, but as it currently stands it is not the top driver, let alone the only driver, as is possibly implied by your current wording. Keep up the great work!
  18. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    Shouldnt all kinds of land tracts be getting freed up of ice compensating loss of coastal regions?" There's this odd tendency, on the "skeptical" side of the argument, to see all types of land as basically equivalent: If you lose some habitable space here, you simply make it up there. Wetlands flooded? Move everyone inland and northward, to the convenient "tracts" of melting permafrost! I generally expect "skeptics" to overlook biodiversity and ecosystem services. I'm more surprised by how often they overlook the logistical difficulty of the adaptations they suggest. Especially when it comes from people who see mitigation measures as seriously if not fatally disruptive to The Free World, the relatively sunny outlook re: climate-forced migration is really puzzling.
  19. An underwater hockey stick
    QUOTE d_bostrom It's odd, how frequently we have skeptics saying words roughly along the lines of "But this other thing might be happening, and you can't show otherwise until you've found the information I've not provided to support my hypothesis." Ad hominem attack. Timeout in the corner please. I asked scaddenp anyway. His data is probably unpublished anyway. QUOTE CB_Dunkerson but your apparent conclusion that this means the oceans are somehow 'generating' the increased temperature is clearly illogical. Straw man argument. I didn't say that the oceans were generating energy. You did. QUOTE CB_Dunkerson Instead BOTH are increasing. But what is curious is that the ocean temp increase is leading the atmosphere temperature increase. You also need to get your terminology right. Generating increased temperature doesn't make sense. We are talking about transport of energy. Temperature is not energy. TOP-skeptical about skeptical skeptics
  20. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    "We know that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is anthropogenic from a number of lines of evidence." Here's another bit of evidence, from Cerveny and Coakley 2002: The Mauna Loa MSR [a statistic developed by the authors] curve (figure 1a) strongly suggests a prominent seven-day cycle in CO2 concentrations. Friday through Sunday experience the lowest values of CO2 while Monday through Wednesday has highest values. ... Such a weekly cycle would be due to either local causes or hemispheric causes. Such weekly cycles were also reported for NO2, which is clearly a pollutant, by Beirle et al. 2003: In the cycles of the industrialized regions and cities in the US, Europe and Japan a clear Sunday minimum of tropospheric NO2 VCD can be seen. Sunday NO2 VCDs are about 25–50% lower than working day levels. Metropolitan areas with other religious and cultural backgrounds (Jerusalem, Mecca) show different weekly patterns corresponding to different days of rest. In China, no weekly pattern can be found. Since the former work was based on surface measurements and the latter based on satellite measurements, with VCD='vertical column density', it would seem that 'measurement error' or 'sample bias' is not an issue with these conclusions.
  21. The Inconvenient Skeptic at 04:30 AM on 5 October 2010
    Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    I agree that CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere as a result of human activity. After that we disagree. The science behind CO2 as a problem with warming is absurd. If the basis that it causes warming is the only reason for it being a pollutant then you have nothing. My article on the original theory based on Arrhenius is here: http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2010/09/the-extremely-flawed-foundation-of-global-warming/ You can argue all you want about the water vapor feedback, but the simple fact is that no model has ever been able to predict the impact of CO2. Even Judith Curry is not convinced the models can show anything useful. The only empirical evidence you have ever posted is based on differences in brightness temperature which is independent of infra-red energy transmission. If the atmosphere is not absorbing more energy as a result of higher CO2 concentrations, then there is no such thing as global warming. My article tomorrow will be about pollution and CO2 emissions. You should read it because it focuses on what matters. I will gladly discuss science on any topic. Should be fun. :-) John Kehr The Inconvenient Skeptic
  22. We're heading into an ice age
    Good point Mr. Murphy. Not much registering of broken records in those articles. It is me stretching that probably they were but not recorded. Sorry about that. I do think though that, so far I have answered your question "Do you have any evidence for any of those claims of "wide spread record cold?" in the affirmative at least a bit since your question is relatively extreme. Hope to cement that a bit more with time. Really should go do some physical work on my B100 consuming car. Got a schedule to keep.
  23. We're heading into an ice age
    It strikes me that the combination of Tom's articles in with what looks like an innocuous slight negative anomaly over parts of South American serves as a handy reminder that seemingly insignificant average anomalies can translate into dramatic local weather events.
  24. We're heading into an ice age
    That GISS link Doug provided in #67 makes about how the question, 'was weather event XYZ caused by global warming', is usually answered which has bothered me for a long time; ------------------- "Finally, a comment on frequently asked questions of the sort: Was global warming the cause of the 2010 heat wave in Moscow, the 2003 heat wave in Europe, the all-time record high temperatures reached in many Asian nations in 2010, the incredible Pakistan flood in 2010? The standard scientist answer is "you cannot blame a specific weather/climate event on global warming." That answer, to the public, translates as "no". However, if the question were posed as "would these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?", an appropriate answer in that case is "almost certainly not." That answer, to the public, translates as "yes", i.e., humans probably bear a responsibility for the extreme event."
  25. An underwater hockey stick
    doug_bostrom at 04:06 AM, perhaps the words of a researcher, Harry Hendon from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research division of BOM might enlighten you. However given your criteria you will probably consider him a definite crank. Hope you don't choke on your red herring.:-) His details are at http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/hhendon.htm, contact him and ask him to verify that the following comments he emailed to another researcher, Gary Meyers, Director, Integrated Marine Observing System, University of Tasmania are indeed correct.............. Gary, I was thinking about the official seasonal forecast issued from BoM (which is currently based entirely on empirical relationships). They don't even factor in the IOD. They assess the likely state of El Niño, and the likely state of the subtropical Indian ocean (the so called Nicholls dipole), which was shown to have a relationship with Australian winter rainfall in an older Nicholls paper (which I think is now regarded as a bit of a red herring as far as predictive capability is concerned). The importance and predictability of the IOD has not percolated up (or down) to those who issue the forecast. I guess that's the fault of the researchers (like me) in BMRC. For those interested, I include a link to the official BoM seasonal forecast issued last July 2006, when we knew we going to have a pIOD. As you can see from reading the justification of the BoM forecast, http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20060725R.shtml the warm loading onto the subtropical IO was an important factor. This link shows what this SST pattern is in the IO http://cas.bom.gov.au/misc.dir/atlas.dir/index.html , which you can see has nothing to do with an IOD. So, in the official BoM forecasts, there is no mention of the IOD. Of course as it turned out last year, the official forecast for the SE of Australia wasn't too good: we had a pIOD and record drought. Ideally, in the near future the Bureau will switch their official seasonal forecast to the direct output from the dynamical ensemble system (single model or multi-model), for which the hindcast skill is well documented. In this case, we won't selectively call out a dipole event or El Niño event, rather, we will directly provide the regional climate predictions (e.g. pdf of eastern Australian temperature and rainfall) that result from prediction of the entire coupled system. Harry
  26. We're heading into an ice age
    Tom Loeber, your first newspaper article mentions some days of low temperatures due to a cold front in certain areas of Southern Brazil, Northern Argentina and Uruguay, and one claim of worst for 47 years - lots of dead fish in Bolivia. Your second article mentions "coldest winter in [Argentina in] 40 years". Your third piece is a blog which re-iterates the number of dead fish in Bolivia (See your first link also). Your last link mentions "coldest temperatures in 10 years" in Argentina and a general "cold spell" in South America. The LAHT link about Peru wouldn't load for me but I doubt whether there is anything there more unusual than the rest of your links. So, am I right in thinking that when you mention "widespread record cold" you are basing your views on newspaper articles ? What records have been broken in any of those articles, that can compare to record high temperatures ? You know, the temperatures that have been the highest in ALL records ?
  27. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Just another thought. Even though we may not be past the danger level, I'm sure that a 2°C is still going to put us on a roller coaster. Therefore, I'm guessing that more than a 2°C rise will put us past a tipping point. Some say we may have already passed a tipping point but reversibility may still be an option. Sounds bad to me!
  28. We're heading into an ice age
    Oops, sorry! Here you go: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: 2010 — How Warm Was This Summer?
  29. We're heading into an ice age
    Cool, I see a blue smudge over Australia too. Could you post the source of that please?
  30. We're heading into an ice age
    You beat me to it Doug! :)
  31. We're heading into an ice age
    Tom, Cherry-picking at its extremes and confusing regional weather events with long-term global trends. Did you know that 2010 likely going to be the warmest year in the instrumented record? Did you know that 17 nations this year have set all time record high temperatures, while only one nation has set an all time record low? (H/T Jeff Masters) Did you know that: "The June–August worldwide land surface temperature was 1.00°C (1.80°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F)—the warmest June–August on record, surpassing the previous June–August record anomaly of 0.92°C (1.66°F) set in 1998." [from NCDC] Did you know that so far this year the S. Hemisphere has had its second warmest year on record? [NCDC] Please read this and have a look at the figure below: Also look at Fig. 21 in this
  32. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    @KL: Consider the two following graphs. The first shows the UAH series from January 1979, with trends (to the present day) from that date as well as from 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2007: What we see is an increasing of the slope in the 1990-present day series (blue), a slight decrease in the 2000-present day series (purple - note it is still higher than the 1979-present day trend), a 2005-present day trend that is nearly identical to the overall trends (cyan), and a dramatic increase in the 2007-present day trend (reddish-brown, if my eyes don't deceive me). Now let's look at PDO trends for the same period of time (for clarity's sake I have the data and overall trend start in 1975 - the trend from 1979 overlaps almost perfectly with the 1990 and 2000 ones, making them harder to see): Here we seem to have an overall negative trend in green (who should thus influence temperatures negatively, but clearly not enough to counter the warming). We then have dip in the 1990-present day trend (blue), a further (very slight) decrease in the 2000-present day trend (purple), a strong decrease in the 2005-present trend (cyan) and a moderate upswing in the 2007-present day trend (reddish-brown). Now, I know that shorter trends are not statistically significant, but it does seem as if the very slight slowdowns in the overall warming trend have been affected by the cooling effect of the PDO, though not enough to cancel the overall warming. Given this, how can you argue a) that the warming is showing enough signs of slowing down to warrant predictions of continuing "flattening", and b) that the slowing down was *not* due to the cooling effect of the PDO? To the moderator: I am terribly sorry if this has veered off-topic. If there is a better place to post this rebuttal, please indicate it to me and I'll move it there. I'd ask that you not delete it before I move it, however, as I took some time in carefully (and patiently) responding to Ken's erroneous argument. Also note that Ken argued it's not the PDO, so it doesn't really fit in the "It's the PDO" thread... :-/
  33. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Hi Dana, This means that the human race needs a long term plan to reverse the warming trend because this still seems to be too much of a rise of sea level in several centuries. And of course, we could be in for some rude surprises! I know that reversal of the warming trend is asking too much since we can't even get the ball rolling for stabilizing the temperature at 2°C
  34. An underwater hockey stick
    JMurphy at 09:21 AM, that is the article I mentioned earlier in johnd at 05:42 AM. If you have any awareness at all of the timeline of the research that identified the IOD and continues on, and the parties actively involved, then surely it is obvious who are the parties ahead of the game and who are those behind the game. The debacle in 2006 when BOM issued a seasonal forecast based primarily on the ENSO that turned out to be totally wrong whilst forecasts for the +ve IOD turned out as being correct was perhaps the point at which realisation hit for those behind in the game.
  35. We're heading into an ice age
    Note the blue smudge over South America in the map at lower right. Always good to look at all the data.
  36. An underwater hockey stick
    I'm a "resident expert," JohnD? Hardly. I'm simply a person who does not disagree with experts when I'm perfectly aware of my limitations, of the fact I'm not an expert. I could only wish that more people shared my inhibitions. Bothering to attempt answering your demand for some sort of "demonstration" would presuppose your premise is valid. Based on the provenance and content of literature discussing Indian Ocean influences on Australian climate, you don't seem to have a valid case. I can however offer that if you found yourself getting the cold shoulder from researchers by naively asking them questions posed from the perspective that you were bringing them novel information of which they've actually long been aware, you should not have been surprised or puzzled by their reaction. I wouldn't call you a crank, but that sort of behavior is after all -one- diagnostic of a crank. On a general note it's surprising to see a person who has elsewhere expressed a dim view of modeling insisting that a weather forecasting service precipitously incorporate what is described as a powerful new mechanism into a model, even criticize them for failing to do so, when in fact that person is selectively dismissive of the utility of models when applied to other purposes and has also made remarks to the effect that such models are overambitious. Why would such a person invest so much faith in one model in particular? Finally, concerning the late, lamented video, did you happen to notice that the researchers were speaking of a latitude shift in global circulation patterns, one that will change the climate regime of locations spanned by that shift?
  37. We're heading into an ice age
    Record cold in a number of S. America countries. 8/5
    Argentina is colder than Antarctica. 8/3
    Huge fish & other wildlife die-off from cold in Bolivia. 8/3
    State of emergency due to cold for 2/3 of Peru. 7/27
    6 country S. America cold snap kills 175+. 7/20
    I'm just getting started. Give me some more time and I'll stretch that back some more where, if I recall correctly, you see widespread record cold happening in all of the places I mentioned. Amazing that colony of endangered penguins was hurt hard by a widespread cold snap in South Africa recently. Penguins, hurt by cold? Wow. Australia is the sketchy part of my claim however we'll see as I go through my archive. I do seem to recall some widespread record cold on its West and North coasts. Hmmm, come to think of it, on their northeast coasts as well. Hope to give that some substance shortly but, I do have a life you know. :~)
  38. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Thanks doug. Yes it's really a silly argument to begin with. Just because something has beneficial effects doesn't mean it can't be bad in excessive quantities. Bob - true, but it will take several centuries for sea level rise to reach that level. We're looking at probably less than 1 meter by 2100 if we keep temperatures less than 2°C higher. Thus it's a reasonable limit for the short-term.
  39. An underwater hockey stick
    doug_bostrom at 09:09 AM, doug, actually the whole point is whether or not BOM or CSIRO have a good grasp of the literature you referenced. In fact the question you should be asking yourself seeing you are defending them as their resident expert, and I'm now asking you to demonstrate, is why BOM hadn't incorporated the information presented in the papers you referenced in to their forecasting models. Why the gap between the academic and the real world? It's ironic that the other source you referenced, the UNSW, in this article published by them, which I referred to earlier, http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-drought/ actually supports that point, and this was published just early last year. There is no doubt that within BOM there were people who felt that the Indian Ocean was a far greater factor than officially recognised, as indicated by the papers you referenced,(I know of one of them, (not an author of those papers), and often reference his work), and it was the failure of BOM to incorporate IO data into their modeling that led him to resign and set up his own meteorological services. My criticism of UNSW is that they are some years behind in coming to the realisation of the influence the IO has on Australian weather. What they saw last year as a breakthrough, had actually been the same findings that the ex BOM officer referred to earlier had written about in about 2002 IIRC. The other criticism of UNSW is that in the video they mentioned how the IO dipole was changing Australia's weather pattern, yet if you read the UNSW article referenced above, that shift is merely repeating a cycle evident over 100 years ago and repeated a couple of times since, so it is not something that is new or unusual.
  40. We're heading into an ice age
    Tom Loeber wrote : "There was wide spread record cold in the southern hemisphere this last winter, Africa, South America, New Zealand, Tasmania, Australia and I understand even Antarctica had record cold." I have previously commented on your "widespread record cold", i.e.it's not true, so I don't understand how you can repeat that without coming up with some evidence to back up your assertion. Do you have any evidence for any of those claims of "wide spread record cold" ?
  41. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Hi Ken and the group, Ken, it is not just kdkd who has an issue with your repeated misguided claims made here. Pretty much everyone has patiently and politely shown the err of your ways and misunderstanding of the science and data. Please don't deny that, the evidence is here for everyone to read. In fact, given the circumstances, I'm surprised just how polite and patient most people have been with you. It boils down to this: AGW is not going to manifest itself as a monotonic increase in global temperature (or SL or OHC). The climate system is quite noisy with variability increasing as the time scale decreases from inter-decadal to inter-annual, to intra-annual. That is why climate scientists are required to look at long term trends (20 years plus) to extract statistically significant trends/signals from the noise. Now I am at al loss to explain why you stubbornly refusing to accept that well-established fact. Perhaps it is because you are not familiar enough with the science to grasp these elementary, yet critical concepts? I just don't understand. What I do understand is that your presence on these thread is becoming increasingly disruptive, redundant (i.e., repeating the same fallacious claim) and as such is not conducive to constructive debate. Anyhow, in an effort to get back on topic-- this thread is about paleo reconstructions. May I humbly suggest we take this debate about OHC to the appropriate thread-- not that the misunderstanding surrounding the OHC data have not already been discussed ad nauseum there.
    Moderator Response: Excellent point about staying on-topic. As it's largely dedicated to resolving errors versus variability, probably the best place to take further discussion of OHC measurements themselves is the Robust warming of the global upper ocean thread.
  42. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    I quote from above "This 2°C warming level is considered the "danger limit". During the last interglacial period when the average global temperature was approximately 2°C hotter than today, sea levels were 6.6 to 9.4 meters higher than current sea levels." If a 2°C in the past caused a 6.6 to 9.4 rise in sea levels, doesn't it intuitively seem that 2°C is past the danger limit?
  43. Jeff Freymueller at 03:00 AM on 5 October 2010
    Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    You are right, pbjamm (30). In fact, it looks like the rate over the last 3 years is even higher than the average rate because of the dip in the curve in mid-2007. There's no way that variations over such a short time span would be significant, though, so its really a moot point.
  44. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    pbjamm @30, You are reading the graph correctly. Be careful about eyeballing though, best to calc. the OLS line. But, yes, it does seem that if one cherry-picked mid 2007, one could argue that SL rise was accelerating. It may be, but that is way too short a time frame for the trend to be statistically significant, and to draw that conclusion based on such a short window would be misleading. Interesting how you and I and the scientists do not make that mistake, but that the 'skeptics' do repeatedly identify short term windows to find trends (no matter how statistically insignificant) to support their misguided claims. I honestly cannot believe to what lengths some people will go to rationalize their belief that global sea level rise is slowing. Even some very smart people like Pielke Snr have made the same mistake.
  45. We're heading into an ice age
    Looking at some of the assumptions that seem to underly the lead article, NOAA used to have a page on their web site where a credentialed scientist was lamenting how the Milankovitch theory of ice age cycling was used to date ocean sediments then the sediments' dating used to bolster the Milankovitch theory but that page disappeared during the last Bush administration, apparently. Ever hear of the Devil's Hole Nevada crystals analysis for oxygen isotopes ratio over the last couple of hundred thousand years that was released in 1988? Devil's Hole Oxygen isotope ratio analysis. Do some in depth research into it and you find their resulting time line puts the start of the last two major ice ages at peak concentrations of carbon dioxide. That study has been repeated with analysis of similar crystals from deep pristine wells around the planet with some rather convincing agreement but, seems the Milankovitch theory still predominates despite the accumulating evidence that atmospheric gases concentration plays the major role in the cycling of the ice ages: Carbon dioxide concentrations play leading climate determining role.. The Milankovitch theory totally lets the fossil fuel robber barons off the hook so, is it any wonder you find recent studies purporting to prove it on the basis of an announced match of one cycle change?: Milankovitch theory proved? Want to buy some swamp land?. There are coral deposit studies that suggests major ice ages start immediately after global warming: Global warming starts ice ages? How long do we have to wait for the science to take hold and blow all these fossil fuel serving lies to smithereens? Who knows. It has been found though that major swings to ice age conditions can happen quite fast, like, within a years time: One of actually many findings that ice ages can come on incredibly fast. From Jared Diamond, in his book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," one can see that climate change plays a major role in how human social experiments end. A "Secrets of the Dead" PBS program shared some convincing evidence how climate fluctuation was perhaps the major reason why Rome fell. Human social experiments simply don't have the information handling acumen to predict and prepare. What with the fossil fuel companies basically ruling behind these ruses we call societies today, is it any wonder the very dangerous repercussions of carbon dioxide increase would be squelched, nay, suppressed, censored? There was wide spread record cold in the southern hemisphere this last winter, Africa, South America, New Zealand, Tasmania, Australia and I understand even Antarctica had record cold. What's going to happen to the north hemisphere this winter? I'm afraid you wont see much of it on the war profiteering fossil fuel controlled media channels but you might just feel it or get to see some of your family die from it.
  46. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    @KL: "And I am not really interested in whether or not you are interested in my offerings on these issues." Sure you are, otherwise you wouldn't have answered. "I note archisteel that you are not engaging on the numbers." I don't need to, others have done it for me, and very convincingly might I add. "There is a flattening of SLR, temperatures and probably OHC (although inadequately measured) over the last 10 years." 10 years is not long enough to make a statistically-significant slope, therefore your argument is invalid. I could just as well argue that the last three years show a dramatically increased warming slope... "This cannot be ascribed to ENSO, La Nina, PDO, AMO and other circulations and re-distributions of existing heat energy within the Earth system" Actually, we can. The PDO entered a cold phase right about that time, and reduced the warming (which continue to rise). "I have never claimed that CO2GHG do not contribute to increased surface warming by increasing the T1-T2 differential across the atmospheric column." You like to wrap your posts in jargon to give yourself more credibility, but the fact of the matter is that someone who understands the science well can also explain it clearly for others. Recourse to highly technical jargon in a layman's discussion usually indicates a desire to obfuscate. "I have claimed that the proportions of AG forcing and Solar forcing are not accurately known and that this is critical to predictions of the 'equilibrium' temperature rise." What's the "equilibrium temperature rise," exactly? "There is great uncertainty in the WV and ice albedo positive feedback and the cooling effect of cloud albedo." There is uncertainty in everything, that's quite a meaningless statement. Get to the point. "Relatively simple first law thermodynamics and heat transfer analyses can be made to check some of the claims of 'scientists'." Scientists in quotes? Right, they're all either idiots or conspirators in your world view, right? I believe conspiracy theories falls into the "Political comment" zone. "Claims like 'hottest year on record' and 'hottest decade on record' are not inconsistent with warming being slowed or flattened or plateauing." ...just as a temporary slowdown or plateau is not inconsistent with warming - especially since the slowdown has all but ended in the past couple of years. "If you climb a slope and reach a plateau you will be on the 'highest spot in your particular universe' until you climb down." That is completely irrelevant. If you're climbing a mountain you get to see whether or not the slope continues ahead of you. Here, you *don't* know if the warming trend will increase or decrease, even though you seem certain it's the later (betraying the bias that clouds your judgement). The fact of the matter is that the *only* indications we current have is that the warming appears to have resumed with a vengeance. "Your huffing and puffing will not change the fact that the more accurate measurement has become in recent times - temperature, SLR and OHC by Argo - the flatter the rise in all three." ...only if *you* get to cherry-pick the time frame, which you have consistently done in these threads. Oh, and I'm not "huffing and puffing." Just like you seem to have a false idea of the current warming trend, you have no idea of my state of mind, and attempts at suggesting I'm being emotional is just another rhetorical trick of the trade. Fortunately, Daniel, Adelady, Ned and Doug have done an excellent job of demolishing your arguments, and I note you haven't been able to come up with convincing counter-arguments to challenge their rebuttal. Don't go "huffing and puffing," now!
  47. Carbon Dioxide - Everyone's Favorite Pollutant
    Nicely comprehensive. I suppose it goes without saying that almost anything is a pollutant if it's found in the wrong place and/or at the wrong concentration. Skeptics are fond of referring to the naturalness of C02. C0 is also found in the atmosphere as a natural constituent, so I guess by the same logic as that applied to C02, sitting in one's garage with the engine running and the doors closed is perfectly ok.
  48. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Blithe spirits assume that XBT-Argo transition artifacts explain the steep slope in OHC ca ~2002-2004 and that axiomatically this must indicate the heat content caught by the span of the measurements does not exist. This seems to presuppose that XBT was more accurate than Argo as a means of measuring OHC. There are a number of problems with that assumption beyond the simple issue of XBTs being an inferior means of measuring OHC. Most of all, the discontinuity is not found by oceanographers to represent a spurious measurement of OHC not in existence, rather to the extent the temporal change in slope is an error, it appears to signal a defect in our ability prior to Argo to assess OHC. Focusing on the discontinuity is not an argument that OHC is declining, rather it calls attention to an improvement in our ability to measure heat as well as an actual addition to the inventory of heat identified. People whose business it is to know of these things say: The XBT was designed primarily to estimate ocean sound speed for submarine warfare. As XBT data began to be used for more sensitive climate research of the sort discussed here, partly correctable temporal and spatial biases in both XBT temperature and XBT depth were discovered ( Lyman et al ) Not surprisingly, the addition of a new source of OHC data not only was an improvement in accuracy of measurements, it allowed us an independent means of validating measurements from XBT data and thus allowed oceanographers a way to begin fixing problems with XBT data. This has been the topic of fairly intensive effort: In Situ Data Biases and Recent Ocean Heat Content Variability* Identifying and estimating biases between XBT and Argo observations using satellite altimetry Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise (skeptics should pay close attention to this one) Etc. Regarding Argo, experts as opposed to blog commenters say: The flattening of OHCA curves also occurs around the time (2004) that the Argo array of autonomous profiling floats first achieved near global coverage and became the primary source of OHCA data. The Argo array affords year-round sampling of the temperature and salinity of the ice-free oceans over the 0–2,000-m layer, with a nominal separation of 3u in latitude and longitude.The transition from an ocean temperature record consisting primarily of ship-based XBT data to one dominated by high-quality conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) instrument data from Argo floats occurred between roughly 2000 and 20059, and marked a revolution in ocean observing. ( Lyman et al ) What's notably absent from that expert commentary on the XBT-Argo transition is any mention of concern about a false assessment of total OHC introduced by the XBT-Argo transition. That is to say, oceanographers are not concerned that the discontinuous jump visible in graphs of OHC is a false addition to our measurement of OHC; the heat content visible at the right end of the graph above is real. It's pretty funny that "skeptics" love to point out this "offset error" when in fact it reinforces the case for a warming ocean.
  49. What constitutes 'safe' global warming?
    adelady (you from my home town, SA?), to play devil's advocate, you could argue that we'd relocate farmland to the green zones as they move to higher latitudes, and relocate some of the millions of people flooded inland by rising seas to to higher altitudes. Still doesn't answer the problem of the cost/rate of change, of course, and the stress this moving around would place on societies and economies. When we were nomadic we could follow the weather, but as humankind's dominion is a patchwork of state borders, trouble will come when rivers dry up in one country and are filled in another. There have already been wars over water resources. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_conflict
  50. Climate Cherry Pickers: Falling sea levels in 2010
    nofreewind @25 I am no expert but i believe you are reading the graph @18 incorrectly. The rate of change is indicated by the slope of that line, 3.2mm/year over the last 17 years. To get the rate for the last 3 years you would have to draw another line from your start point (Jan 2007) to the end. It appears from eyeballing this that it is almost exactly on the same 3.2mm/year trend. If you start from mid 2007 then the slope (rate of change) is actually greater. Someone please correct me if it is I who am misreading the above graph.

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