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higgijh at 12:07 PM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
This is a good article and I appreciate the information. However, I still have a problem with the IPCC 2014 report. (1) On page 43 of the Synthesis report there is a graph showing the predicted degrees C change in temperature per decade of climate models for 1998-2012. All of the models are predicting temperatures that are too high for that time frame excepth possibly one. Most of them get the number many times too high - like factors of 3 to 8 all the way up to 10. I don't have any problem with constructing a model of past climate and including effects as they are better understood. I do have a seious problem with using such models to extrapolate far into the future. This is particularly true when the extrapolated models are so far off at the point where they go from modeling the past to predicting the future. (2) Another question I have that is a problem for me is: "What is a climate temperature number?" Core samples, whether ice cores or sediment cores, generally give proxy temperature numbers that are averages over many years - sometimes one or two thousand years. So is a climate temperature an number measured today somewhere in the middle of the Pacific ocean? Or maybe an average over a year. Or averages of global temperature measurements over a year or a decade or a century, ... , or maybe a millenium? (3) Finally, there is another interesting graph in the 2014 IPCC report on page 43 of the summary report. This graph shows that the OECD-1990 Countries have held their emissions nearly constant as a group since about 1970. That same graph shows that Asia has been increasing their emissions by about 12 Gt/Yr over the same period. I think that this points to a serious problem over which we have very little control. A switch by Asia from coal to natural gas would probably hit the emissions problem where a punch would do the most short term benefit.
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scaddenp at 09:35 AM on 31 May 20192015 SkS Weekly Digest #38
I dont know about "quietly". Problems with coal estimates from a grossly inefficient bureaucracy were uncovered by IEA in 2013 and they have steadily working on fixes since then. Big revision in 2015.
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litvichar at 09:25 AM on 31 May 20192015 SkS Weekly Digest #38
In May, China's statistical agency quietly raised estimates of how much coal the nation has burned since 2000.
SOurce: https://laffaz.com
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scaddenp at 07:43 AM on 31 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Do you have a reference for full gas fluxes under a property you consider to be HM with high rates of C sequestration? I was also noting that high rates of C sequestration go with N input both from observational evidence and biological fundimentals. For any farm, you still have a stocking rate of total animal-days/total land. However, I agree that continuous versus rotational grazing is going to be important and it is hard to find that in the Conant paper. The Mandan and Cheyenne data which are best for length of time and gas flux are both continuous seasonal grazing.
If most land has no animals for most of year, then that is very low stocking rate in my opinion.That would imply very low productivity per hectare. Yet (quite a while ago), you were saying that dairy productivity (milk solid per hectare) in your systems were on a comparable rate to NZ rotationally-grazed pastures?
Can give a paragraph on difference between HM and MIRG? I find it frustrating in papers (eg Briske Teague controversies) where lack of good definitions muddy the waters.
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nigelj at 07:08 AM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Agree with BB. While the article is great and the headline is technically correct it gives a bad message that volcanos are a big factor in long term warming, and it will delight climate denialists. We know people often only read headlines.
It might have been better to word it differently like "new study better explains early 20th century and recent arctic warming"
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Bill Bishop at 03:05 AM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Dana, it's great to see another article of yours in the Guardian!
The headline is misleading as it implies that 1.) volcanoes cause warming, and 2.) that the warming they cause is comparable to the impact of human emissions. While the article explains that a lull in volcanic activity in the mid-20th century caused less cooling, describing this as a heating effect can misinform laypeople scanning the headlines.
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JohnSeers at 02:26 AM on 31 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
@Ddahl44 @153
The significant point about "stasis", that is no change, is that there will not be a temperature rise. The situation is static.
In a changing system, if you add a molecule of water vapour to the atmosphere it will be rained out very quickly in a matter of hours/days and the system will still be at the same temperature. The carrying capacity of the atmosphere will not have changed.
If you add a molecule of carbon dioxide it will stay in the atmosphere for a long, long time (100000 years?). In that time it will capture (and release) a photon many times and add a small amount of heat to the system. It will slow the escape of heat to space. The temperature will not return to equilibrium like the water vapour molecule. In addition the carrying capacity of the atmosphere for water vapour will have increased which leads to a feedback rise in temperature.
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MA Rodger at 18:55 PM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddah144,
Your initial comment on this thread @142 made quite an issue of "the moon’s huge day to night temperature swings" which doesn't seem to have been addressed properly. You correctly point out that the massive size of the change in lunar day-to-night temperature is due to the month-long Lunar day. The graph below shows the equitorial lunar temperature and the temperature range remains high all the way from the equator almost to the poles - even at 75º of latitude it has only dropped from a 300K swing to 200K.
The portion of this lunar graphic of interest when considering the equivalent effect for a 24 Earth-hour rotation would be the 0.8 Lunar-hours centred on the Lunar average temperature. That would suggest a day-to-night equatorial temperature range of something like 80ºC. A more accurate calculation (the graphic below provided by climate skeptic Roy Spencer) shows an equitorial range of about 70ºC, a lot lower than the actual range for a planet with a GHG atmosphere. For instance Singapore has (or more correctly 'had') an average daily maximim of 30.3ºC and daily minimum of 23.5ºC, thus a range of just 7.2ºC.
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RedBaron at 17:52 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
The reason you cant find stocking rates for HM is because HM doesn't have a stocking rate. Stocking rates are for putting an animal on a pasture at a certain number of head per acre and the most common "improved" rotational system being "rest rotation" mentioned above in a few of the sources which involves moving the animals once a year.
Most HM animals are moved daily and most the land has no animals on it most the year. This is why it does not have the issues with NO2 you are attempting to raise. No piece of land can get over saturated by urine if the animal is present only a day and none returns for weeks or months or more. And as I explained already, it doesn't get agrochemicals either.
It's not an issue. This issue is found in lessor management strategies. But again. I want to stress this yet again.... The net is still negative even in somewhat lesser management strategies. These are not emissions sources either way. It's net negative. All the argument involves is good vs better.
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scaddenp at 14:42 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Firstly, I am not considering any data where any artificial fertilizer of any sort is used. The paper definitely points to management where N2O is reduced - this is management with lower stocking rates. I dont know how the stocking rate data for reduced N2O compares to HM.
Grazing adds natural N fertilizer, with higher stocking resulting in higher N input, so N input must be considered. What struck about the study was high C and N sequestration also went with higher N2O emissions. However, the lower stocking rates at Cheyenne still produced big increases in C and N sequestration but not as large as high stocking rates. If this is HM, then great. Just not sure how well low stocking rates goes down with farmers.
While the calculation of "net cooling" from the C, N and N2O fluxes ignored CH4 emissions, I agree that C sequestration is way better than agrochemical supported cropping. However, farming practises thatsupport cropping and increased SoC are well known (if not necessarily done). I havent tracked down much on gas fluxes in these systems.
I am being highly critical of HM, but that is because I want to believe it can be made to work. I am pushing anyone I can think of to look at zero-input, SoC increasing research here.
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RedBaron at 13:58 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Not sure why you insist on this idea when even in the abstract it clearly states,
"Conversely, reduction of N2O fluxes in grassland soils brought about by changes in management represents an opportunity to reduce the contribution of grasslands to net greenhouse gas forcing."
It's almost like you are happy to cast doubt on HM due to implied hints that in general terms certain types of management increase NO2 emissions, yet completely ignore the fact that HM is both lower than other types of management, and even the other conventional GAP methods are still net negative, although not as good as HM.The evidence is clear though, both in correlation like in your review, and also the causation is known as well.
Phosphorus and Nitrogen Regulate Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Petunia hybrida
Excess nitrogen that is susceptible to producing increased NO2 emissions also has the negative side effect of shutting down the symbiotic relationship between the AMF and the plant. This symbiosis is what gives grasslands their much higher net carbon sequestration rate. Too much soluble nitrogen (or phosphorus) therefore will still improve biomass carbon, but it reduces the LCP.
Now you could be tricked into thinking applying extra fertilizer is beneficial, because biomass increases. Also the soil becomes more acidic and compacts more, becomming more anoxic. This slows down the saprophytic fungi responcible for decomposing biomass in the carbon short cycle (labile carbon). O-horizon carbon can show an increase. But this responce is temporary and in the long term sequesters far less long term Carbon deep into the soil profile.
Still in all cases it is far far more beneficial carbon footprint compared to cropping systems which almost all use agrochemical fertilizers and which almost all are net carbon sources... It's just that the case of HM the effect is universally much more beneficial over a wider range of conditions.
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scaddenp at 08:20 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 - the Schmitdt et al paper that I pointed you to in 152 has the detail for current atmosphere. Did you look at it? (short answer - the calculation is a lot more complicated than you think. You cannot treat the atmosphere as a single layer, nor are the responses to IR for each type of molecule the same).
The really gruesome detail is encompassed in the Radiative Transfer Equations. A lot of teaching resources around the net for these. eg here and here.
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Eclectic at 08:19 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 @153 ,
If I may make a brief and rather over-simplified reply :-
H2O and CO2 operate at different "transmission bands" of InfraRed radiation ~ so they are not in competition, and so can't be directly compared.
A second aspect, is that (effectively) the IR loss (to outer space) is occurring from molecules at very high altitudes in the atmosphere, where the temperatures are so cold that very little H2O is present in vapor form ~ unlike the case of CO2 (which does not condense at these temperatures, and so maintains its relative concentration of 0.04% ).
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scaddenp at 08:05 AM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
The Conant study looked at 54 studies where management practises were examined for their effect on soil. Only 16 of these involved artificial fertilizer, 9 of which included direct N fertilization. The two sites with detailed N2O direct measurement (Mandan, Cheyenne) did not use artificial fertilizer. Reduced N2O was only observed with low grazing rates.
The good news, is that many studies produced net cooling effect from grassland, (not N fertilization), but not as high as C sequestration would suggest.
Now I cannot evaluate which if any of the studies would be considered "HM", but it is clear to me that claims of the climate benefit from grazing practise need to consider other gas fluxes, not just carbon.
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Ddahl44 at 03:46 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
JohnSeers - my nonclimate scientific mind needs to understand stasis before I can understand change. Eclectic states each molecule (H2O or CO2) can absorb a photon. If this is correct, then at any point in time, assuming H2O makes up 2% of the molecules in the atmosphere, are not H2O molecules absorbing 70x the photons of CO2? How does CO2 jump from 1.5% of the work to 20%, regardless if it is doubled or not? I need to understand this before I work on feedback loops and changing the variables. Thanks.
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RedBaron at 15:19 PM on 29 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Using haber process nitrogen to boost C sequestration is a GAP, but not HM. It explains very clearly why conventional GAP that uses fossil fuels to manufacture haber process nitrogen (made from natural gas) and fertilize grasslands might appear to give good results but it is an illusion.
Instead HM uses the millions of years old symbiosis between grasses, herbivores, and mycorrhizal fugi to improve yields and sequester carbon without the NO2 offsets.
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scaddenp at 09:20 AM on 29 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
I dont see how HM "succeeds" if N2O fluxes offset the C gains.
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marksf at 04:03 AM on 29 May 2019Positive feedback means runaway warming
This was useful. Glad I read it. I'm curios about where the curve for the "blue line" comes from.
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joecjo at 16:54 PM on 28 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Sorry to hear. I really have appreciated the listings. Thank you for your ongoing commitment to climate science publishing.
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RedBaron at 16:02 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@30 scaddenp,
No. I do not challenge the data. I claim the data supports Holistic management and further reinforces the dichotomy between conventional GAP and Holistic management and explains very clearly why conventional GAP fails where HM succeeds.
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scaddenp at 13:49 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
RedBaron - I still think we are at cross-purpose here. Can we focus on the Conant review for a moment. A substantial conclusion is:
"Results from this work demonstrate that even
when improved management practices result in
considerable rates of C and N sequestration,
changes in N2O fluxes can offset substantial portion
of gains by C sequestration"Are you challenging the data of this review? ie are you disputing that management practices which improve C and N sequestration (good) unfortunately result in increased N2O fluxes (bad)?
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RedBaron at 12:03 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Well I wrote a long formal rebuttal again and lost it again because I took too long and forgot to save a copy. So here is the quick and dirty version.
That highlighted statement taken at face value is fine. I have no issues CONSIDERING those impacts. But just keep in mind that after considering them, it in more evidence to support Savory's work.
under dry conditions net CH4 uptake can increase with increased soil moisture
Climate change reduces the net sink of CH4 and N2O in a
semiarid grasslandSo lets look at the soil moisture under Savory's Holistic managed grazing as compared to conventional rest rotation and also total rest as a control.
While soil type and shrub cover were effectively the same across the study area, mean %VWC differed. Pair-wise comparisons indicate that mean %VWC for the SHPG treatment pasture was significantly higher than that found in either the RESTROT or TREST treatment pastures while mixed procedures models in SAS revealed strong environmental as well as treatment effects.
Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho
So in this case when you consider these additional greenhouse gasses it supports Savory's claims even more so. This is indeed part of the biophysical causation for the results in the field Savory observed.
So yes. Consider it. But then acknowledge that after considering it, the results provide additional support for Holistic management and additional evidence the OP here by Seb V is falsified by published evidence.
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barry17781 at 11:55 AM on 28 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
nigel,
my understanding of the methane balance is that the main form of destruction is by UV and oxygen in the atmosphere , not in the soil.
The increase in methane in the last few years is from the east where paddy fields are probably the major contributor, not cattle and sheep belching. It is called marsh gas for a reason in that marshes (and paddy fields ) are a major source.
Nevertherless cattle pooing on the land is a natural way of mainaing fertility and I would be interested in finding if the carbon maintained and sequestered on pasture offset the methae imbalance.
Of interest the destruction of the vast herds of herbivores in the americas by the clovis event and then by the destruction of the bison in the 19th century have been attributed to blips in the climate record
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scaddenp at 08:04 AM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Redbaron - I dont follow you. First I dont dispute the measured fluxes in C. I am extremely heartened to see it from european pastures. I am not sure which paper you think is based on model responses? My attention is drawn instead to the changes in N2O fluxes that accompanies increased C sequestration and at least partly offsets it. This is from referenced literature review of Conant et al 2005. Hence the "Policies intended to offset GHG emissions using C sequestration must therefore consider impacts on other biogenic GHGs like N2O and CH4." statement.
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egmart50 at 04:54 AM on 28 May 2019Beleaguered journalism interests seek to aid ailing planet
This thought seems appropiate to the Climate Change situation: "One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlaton power over you, you almost never get it back." ____ Carl Sagan
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:26 AM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Developing an improved understanding of what can be achieved through revised farming practices is important.
But the basic understanding is that changing farming practices can result in Carbon Sequestration ... as long as something like increased global warming does not undo any benefits achieved that way.
The real focus still needs to be rapidly ending the addictive abuse of fossil fuels. In parallel with that, farming practices need to be corrected in ways that help reduce the harm being done to future generations by unsustainable activity (and in parallel with that, actions are required that will rapidly achieve and improve on all of the Sustainable Development Goals).
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RedBaron at 19:56 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Yes Scaddenp. I also know about that one too. But keep in mind this exact quote from the paper I referenced:
Carbon sequestration in grasslands can be determined directly by measuring changes in C pools and indirectly by measuring the net balance of C fluxes.
The conclusions you posted are based indirectly on models, and the paper I gave you is directly measuring pools. Same goes for my previous papers I referenced.
Now the results from each would be perfectly fine if the simulation model was accurate in simulating holistic managed land, but as Dr Jones noted, the Roth C model being used to project these fluxes is inadequate to simulate the LCP, while still being perfectly good at simulating O-horizon fluxes primarily caused by saprophytic micro-organisms.
This is the reason for the dichotomy
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Ari Jokimäki at 16:05 PM on 27 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Thank you both! :-)
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scaddenp at 13:25 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Interesting for its studies in cooler European environment. Following the cites are interesting too and we find that the author (Soussana) has some caveats in a later paper.
"Sequestration of C in grassland soils by changing management practices is widely seen as a way to offset CO2 emissions. However, previous studies indicate that the projected increasing frequency of drought and heat wave events may turn grasslands into C sources, contributing to positive carbon-climate feedbacks (Ciais et al. 2005; Soussana et al. 2007). In addition, the combination of long-term effects of drought with high atmospheric [CO2] could decrease soil microbial biomass (Loiseau and Soussana 2000; Pinay et al. 2007) and promote shifts in functional microbial types (Barnard et al. 2006), thus leading to changes in biogeochemical cycles and C sequestration. Moreover, Conant et al. (2005) showed that even when improved management practices result in considerable rates of C and N sequestration, changes in N2O fluxes can offset a substantial portion of gains by C sequestration. Policies intended to offset GHG emissions using C sequestration must therefore consider impacts on other biogenic GHGs like N2O and CH4."
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RedBaron at 13:10 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
I found yet another confirmation that the range measured by Dr. Jones (5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr) was completely independantly repeated.
Mitigating livestock greenhouse gas balance
through carbon sequestration in grasslandsThis time between 7.3 and 7.9 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr
Approximately 8 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr is the target number concerning land currently in food production. That's not even counting the vastly larger area of degraded land destroyed by mankind that Savory has proven can be restored to fertile grassland by proper management.
So yet again it is not Savory being refuted, it is this article by Seb V.
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Eclectic at 11:52 AM on 27 May 2019There is no consensus
JoeZ @801 ,
Yes, there are "scientists who aren't part of the consensus" ~ but there are hardly any climate scientists who would fit in that category. That is why the Consensus is only 99+% , not absolutely 100% . Far worse for your unstated position, JoeZ, those very few scientists had all produced hypotheses which have been thoroughly disproven (see Svensmark, Lindzen) . . . and worse again, they contain a high percentage of religious crackpots who are not strictly scientific in their mode of thinking.
Are they "stupid"? Well, stupid is a rather elastic term. I myself know a fellow who has a PhD and spent decades in scientific research [but not in climate-related matters] and yet he is a member of the local Flat Earth Society. Unsurprisingly, he is also in denial about global warming.
Is he stupid? He is pleasant, sociable, and intelligent ~ but that doesn't stop him from being quite wrong about important issues. Just like Lindzen & his comrades who are over-influenced by irrational religious beliefs or extremist political beliefs. They put their ego ahead of scientific thinking.
Also rather like your Mr Alex Epstein (who is an author, not a philosopher) who chooses to write a book, not submitting his ideas to the point-by-point criticism which would occur in the process of peer-review in a scientific paper. JoeZ, it is easy to write a book and have your unbalanced rhetoric sweep your ill-informed readers into a state of intellectual submission & adulation . . . just as it is easy to make a "documentary" film about a subject [ here, "The Great Global Warming Swindle" comes to mind ] where severely-doctored graphs and fallacious logic are employed. The general reading/viewing public are not to know how fake it all is, unless they take the trouble to apply critical thinking and to educate themselves on the basics of the issue.
In the end, JoeZ , it all comes down to evidence. And evidence is the thing lacking in the positions taken by those "non-consensus" scientists. The climate consensus exists because of the climate evidence.
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JoeZ at 10:17 AM on 27 May 2019Tree-rings diverge from temperature after 1960
From the essay at the top, "Tree growth is sensitive to temperature." I've been a professional forester since Nixon was in the White House and I know that there are many variables that influence tree growth. I wouldn't place too much faith in the relationship between tree growth and temperature. Other factors include soil moisture, age of the tree, competition with other trees (is the forest dense or has it been thinned either naturally or by cutting?), pathologies which may be temporary like gypsy moth, air pollution and the level of atmospheric CO2. Some research shows trees growing faster with higher levels of CO2.
Moderator Response:[PS] Funnily enough, the importance of other factors is well known and using tree rings as proxies requires careful selection. See here for example and more detail.
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JoeZ at 09:14 AM on 27 May 2019There is no consensus
I have a few quotes from the article to comment on.
"Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing." But the arguing continues. When it stops you have orthodoxy and heretics.
"But the testing period must come to an end." I suspect a lot of testing and improved model building is needed which should keep the testing going.
"That’s why those who oppose taking action to curb climate change have engaged in a misinformation campaign to deny the existence of the expert consensus." Hey, that's quite a claim. Maybe they believe what they say?
I don't have a fixed position yet on global warming. I have been looking at some of the scientists who aren't part of the consensus. I hope it's not considered dangerous to look at their views- do we get excommunicated for doing so? Whenever I mention any of the non conforming in other forums- the biggest comeback is that they're all on the take from the fossil fuel industries or they're just stupid. I don't really care who pays them and I'd hardly consider anyone with a Phd as stupid.
Aside from the many non conforming scientists- I've found one interesting guy, Alex Epstein, a philospher by training who has published his book on the subject, "The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels". I watched him debate Bill McKibben back in 2014. It's on YouTube. I think he held his own in that debate. I don't think it's fair to instantly dismiss such thinkers. He admits upfront that he's had connections with that industry- so no need to point that out. He has a very interesting perspective- worth looking at, even by those convinced of the existential threat of climate change. It doesn't hurt to see what the opposition is up to. I found his book so interesting I'd like to get a discussion going on this forum, if that's possible- but it probably isn't.
Moderator Response:[PS] This thread is for discussion of consensus studies. Please take any discussion of a moral case for fossil fuels to the weekly roundup thread.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:42 AM on 27 May 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21
Here is an article from March this year that relates to the Editor's Pick this week. It is from the BBC Future section, dated March 19, 2019. "Why we need to reinvent democracy for the long-term"
The problem of a lack of leadership interest in correcting harmful developments and developing sustainable improvements for the benefit of the future of humanity requires socioeconomic-political system change.
Ethically and Morally, every future human deserves consideration (and future humans massively out-number any current day population). Based on 'proportional consideration (equality and fairness)' there would be no justification for any unsustainable or harmful pursuits of personal interest, especially pursuits that are detrimental to the future of humanity in ways than are worse than just reducing future access to non-renewable resources (burning buried ancient hydrocarbons reduces future access to that resource).
Financial evaluations that discount future harm done then compare that reduced value (probably significantly low-balled before discounting), to evaluations of current day lost opportunities if the harm is not done (probably significantly over-estimated), is an example of improper consideration of impacts on the future.
Sustainable activity being improved by the development of better sustainable activity is the required objective (achieving and improving on the Sustainable Development Goals). That means that Negative future consequences are simply unacceptable.
Until that system correction is any developed perceptions of progress, including technological advances and supposed 'fixes' to developed problems, will continue to be fatally incorrect, just making the future worse.
The recent surge of populist United Political Right groups is likely connected to an attempt by the greedier and less tolerant (more selfish) leadership (wealthy influential people) to impede the development of the required socioeconomic-political corrections. They want a Status-Quo that undoes much of the progress of humanity that has been occurring, and that resists any other Progressive improvements. Tragically, they are able to mobilize support from less fortunate desperate people who can collectively have influence.
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scaddenp at 07:07 AM on 27 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
For details on contribution of the gases to the overall GHE which keeps us from freezing, see this paper here. I dont see how cloud seeding would help - the amount of water in the atmosphere is dependent on temperature (Clausius-Clapyron relation) hence water vapour acts as a feedback to any other variable that is changing the temperature.
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JohnSeers at 04:24 AM on 27 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
@Ddahl44 @149
No, that is not correct. Just looking at the static concentrations does not give you the answer you want. It is the change in conditions that you should be looking at. CO2 concentration has increased so that has led to a rise in the temperature. In turn that has led to an increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, which results in even more of a rise in the temperature. So there is a feedback effect.
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Ddahl44 at 23:56 PM on 26 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Oops - the above should say “H20 60%|CO2 30%”
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Ddahl44 at 23:50 PM on 26 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
So a molecule of water can trap heat equally well as a molecule of CO2? A web search tells me H2O makes up about 2% of the molecules in the atmosphere. So shouldn’t water contribute 70x of the warming of CO2 based on atmospheric concentrations? Where are the numbers quoted in the above responses (H2O 60%/CO2 20% as relative contributions) derived? Warmer earth, more water evaporation, warmer earth, etc. Are we headed towards cloud seeding?
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EliRabett at 12:16 PM on 26 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Me too Ari. Thanks for the help
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nigelj at 08:03 AM on 26 May 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21
The relevant article from the economist.com. "Economists are rethinking fiscal policy".
You can get five free articles a month by registering.
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nigelj at 07:03 AM on 26 May 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21
Regarding the excellent article "The UN calls for enlightened self interest...."
Seems to be in very short supply.
"the UN chief stressed that “climate change cannot be stopped by the small island countries alone, it has to be stopped by the rest of the world” and that this requires the political will for “transformational policies in energy, mobility, industry and agriculture”.
So much has to be done in parallel. Who is supposed to lead the way?An uprising of school children seems to be the only thing happening. They are seeing the problem clearly, probably due to being taught the science and not brainwashed with the denialism like their parents. But its going to take more than kids protesting.
"Mr. Guterres echoed the “three urgent messages” to world leaders that he had “consistently conveyed” throughout his visit to the Pacific, beginning with shifting taxes from salaries to carbon. “We need to tax pollution, not people,” he reiterated. "
Yes taxing pollution is the economically sensible option, and may be viable in Europe, but carbon taxes are not proving popular in America even with a dividend scheme. All talk, no consensus, no action. It's due to taxes being regarded as a dirty word and the associated political tribalism that has developed. And emissions trading schemes seem to be just as hard to get through congress.
In America it might have to come back to something closer to the Green New Deal, where the government finances or subsidises climate related mitigation projects like the electricity generation and industry with deficit financing or money creation (Modern Monetary Theory is becoming a talking point lately). These things might be perceived to be less ideologically divisive and impactful on the public.
We have seeen money creation with quantitative easing and it hasn't lead to problems. Given the GOP is happy to run high deficits, it's going to be hard for them to take the idea off the table. Some evidence is emerging that deficits and government debt are not as problematic as once thought (refer to the economist.com). Not saying I personally love this thinking, but its what this respected website is saying.
"Second, he flagged that countries must stop subsidizing fossil fuels."
Yes to that. Pure commonsense. But people like Donald Trump have done a great job of convincing (brainwashing) his core voters that such subsidies are good for them. -
michael sweet at 20:54 PM on 25 May 2019New research, May 6-12, 2019
More good news on electric vehicles.
China is rapidly converting its bus fleet to electric. They are cheaper than ICE overall because maintenance is cheaper but initial cost is still higher than ICE. They are buying electric to reduce pollution in cities.
Here is the link for Norway electric cars. It is currently the most read link on the BBC.
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michael sweet at 20:47 PM on 25 May 2019New research, May 6-12, 2019
This BBC video discusses electric cars in Norway. The government taxes ICE cars so electric are cheaper. 59% of cars sold in one month were electric!! It is possible to convert to electric if people are motivated. And electric cars are cheaper to maintain.
The video says they need more charging statiions. I imagine the grid will have to be upgraded to transmit more electricity.
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Synapsid at 11:09 AM on 25 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Ari,
I'm sorry to hear that you won't be continuing this feature. It's been very useful to me, especially the palaeoclimate listings, and I thank you for your work.
Regards,
Synapsid
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nigelj at 07:57 AM on 25 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
And we have also degraded soils with intensive poorly managed dairy and livestock farming, and some potential exists to increase the ability of soils to sequester carbon if livestock farming is done in particular ways. I hear what RB says.
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nigelj at 07:19 AM on 25 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
Grazing livestock on open plains have been carbon neutral in the past because the methane they release breaks down to CO2 and is absorbed by natural sinks. My understanding is the problem is humans have increased the numbers ahead of what natural sinks can absorb, and those natural sinks including forests are disappearing. I stand to be corrected if someone posts links to better information.
I think the bottom line is we need to get livestock numbers down to a manageable level, and eat less meat, but getting rid of all livestock does not appear to make much sense, and thinking the whole world will become vegetarian looks unrealistic to me.
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johnthepainter at 01:47 AM on 25 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
@2wilddouglascountry
The claim that animal agriculture causes more greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels is wildly inaccurate. The New York Times finds that "Worldwide, livestock accounts for between 14.5 percent and 18 percent of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions," with US livestock emissions only about half that amount. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/climate/cows-global-warming.html
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RedBaron at 21:45 PM on 24 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
@10 cpske,
The even lower low carbon lifestyle, (only pasture raised animal products, lots of local vegetables, and biking around) is even more healthy for you.
This could provide incentives enough for citizens to switch. But if the dividend were paid to farmers for verified tonnage of carbon sequestered yearly in soils, food would be even cheaper and the reduction of greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere several orders of magnitude faster.
This is the folly of a emissions only approach.
It turns out that while much of the “pulse” of extra CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere would be absorbed over the next century if emissions miraculously were to end today, about 20 percent of that CO2 would remain for at least tens of thousands of years.
Meanwhile biology can remove that CO2 much much faster. In fact at the astonishing rate of 5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr if it includes the unique symbiosis between mycorrhizal fungi, perennial grasses, and the vast herds of herbivores that evolved on them.
You don't need to eat those herbivores since you are a Vegan. But they do have a biological function that includes the ecosystem service of soil creation and nutrient cycling... and yes that does also include removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. So we do need them to heal the planet.
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cpske at 20:06 PM on 24 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
The low carbon lifestyle, (no animal flesh, lots of local vegetables, and biking around) is a lot healthier (and cheaper) for you. This should provide incentives enough for citizens to switch. Had my cholesterol checked the other day and it was 120 and I am no longer obese. If all citizens followed my lead, we would put 90% of all cardiologists out of business. Heart disease and diabetes would effectively end as scourges to humanity.
And as a side benefit, I'd rake in the dough from this sort of revenue-neutral carbon tax.
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Postkey at 17:31 PM on 24 May 2019Climate Adam reacts to Bill Nye: "The planet's on f@*&ing fire!"
'Others' 'selfishly based on benefiting from fossil fuels.'?
"Australia is the latest democracy to discover that climate emergencies are incompatible with neoliberal inequality. In a repeat of the 2016 Brexit and Trump votes, all of the polling for last week’s general election predicted that a strong environmental platform would propel the Australian Labor Party into government. Instead, in defiance of the opinion polls, the Liberal/National coalition was re-elected with what the BBC reported as a “miracle” majority."
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