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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 108051 to 108100:

  1. There is no consensus
    BP #238 Perhaps you're unaware of the immediate retraction and apology concerning the video by the 10:10 group? Certainly puts your shrill hand wringing in perspective. #236 Maybe - I'm still not convinced. But your google search was misleading as it showed participation in the campaign by a bunch of local government groups. Even adding the word "funding" or "financing" to your search doesn't clarify at all.
  2. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    doug_bostrom at 05:22 AM, on the contrary I think most people do have at least a basic grasp of of physics, and of mathematics as well, as climate science is all about reducing an extremely complex system to a number of basic laws and mathematical equations. However the computation of such in combination is far beyond the capacity of a single human mind. In addition the depth to which those not involved in the actual research is limited to analysing the completed studies, the conclusions reached, often only the abstracts. Few people have the opportunity or ability to explore and analyse the essential elements such as the raw data, the proxies being developed or any of elements of the mathematical models constructed, these are often tightly held by the scientists themselves, not even shared with other scientists. Spencer with the work he does on feedbacks has commented that even other scientists are no able to grasp the essential elements of his work, and I think that is a very telling point. Spencer understands the perspective from which other scientists apply the accumulated laws of physics and mathematical equations, but he sees that the order in which are inserted into the "critical path", for want of a better term, may not be the correct order, and inserts them in a different order. He sees confusion between cause and effect and apparently not all scientists it appears are able to adjust their mindset to his perspective that would enable them to judge his work without bias. If it is difficult for scientists who specialise in the physics involved to be able understand the perspective of a fellow equally qualified scientist, then that puts the average poster commenting on their works at aqn extreme disadvantage leading to a situation where what they present to support an argument is more due to their opinion on the relative merits of the conclusions drawn by any study rather than any intimate knowledge of the inner workings that are generally not available to those outside the working group.
  3. An underwater hockey stick
    doug_bostrom I think that would be highly unlikely, assuming currents at the golf have remained consistent, as it would require negative entropy through the system. It will more likely be the result of changes in one or more of the currents feeding into the gulf. Either way, it does corroborate that the warming starting at the end of the 19th century, is unmatched during the last 1000 years. But this could be showing a strengthening of the THC at that time. All sorts o possibilities, but not enough info at this time to draw any concrete conclusions from it.
  4. Berényi Péter at 09:38 AM on 3 October 2010
    There is no consensus
    #237 doug_bostrom at 07:20 AM on 3 October, 2010 My, what a political turn this thread has taken. It's still about how to make consensus. The particular method promoted by the 10:10 team is proven to be effective in the short term multiple times throughout history, particularly here, in Central Europe. Should I say we are all too familiar with it? Unfortunately however, it may not work so well in the long run, as sooner or later people are prone to come to their senses.
  5. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    Robert Way, Why focus on the summer minimums? If you look at the two illustrations, the one on the left (as well as a higher extent) has clearly more high concentration ice (up to 100% shown by the grey colour) than the one on the right, which has more ice of lower concentrations (as shown by the brighter greens & reds). There are even areas of low concentration close to the North Pole. The dates were chosen more or less at random. In 2010 the ice is thinner and more spread out. It is a rough corroboration of the PIOMAS model, which shows the fall in volume.
  6. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    "the science is abdominal" - based on gut feelings perhaps?! A case of projection?
  7. An underwater hockey stick
    Joe, don't take my word as worth anything but the first thing that comes to mind for me when looking at fig. 1 of the paper is the confined area; I'm left wondering if the connection to the rest of the abyss is such that we're looking at what is effectively a semi-isolated pool of water, able to warm more quickly.
  8. An underwater hockey stick
    Thank you Doug for the link to the paper. Riccardo, this paper has found a direct correlation, to the deep water T's at the gulf of st lawrence vrs northern hemisphere atmospheric T's... i think it is a very interesting paper! It is a little complex though, in that it is the result of the mixing of several currents. For the oceans to show a much greater anomaly than atmospheric T's, would be a physical impossibility for it to be driven by LW forcing. But this is showing a change in current strengths, driving warming of deep waters... Whats caused it? Why isnt it lagging? It raises a lot o questions to my mind...
  9. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    I'm not sure that presenting data from the same calendrical date separated by 30 years is "cherry picking," Robert. That's easily enough time to capture a trend. All the same, looking at the same delta from a graphical perspective and being more inclusive is arguably better in terms of eliminating ambiguity. A classic example of "cherry picking" would be to take data from 1987 to 1989 and claim that was a "recovery," or 2007-2009 for that matter.
  10. We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
    cruzn246 - "is there a tipping point for solar" - Well yes, on it way to a red dwarf, the sun will eventually boil the seas and that surely is tipping point. Not one that need concern us much however. This sounds like a continued effort to explain warming from solar effects. Lets try the science approach. What would we predict to occur, from considerations of past solar warming and from basics physics? Warming more pronounced in tropics; warmer days rather than warmer nights; summers warming faster than winters; and the biggy - the stratosphere warming not cooling. Observation dont match these predictions but they do match the predictions for GHG-driven warming.
  11. The Phony War: Lies, Damn Lies and the IPCC
    CW - been away for a few days. Interesting argument for a more extreme HCO climate. I would like to make a couple of further points though. Firstly, I can't comment on NH proxies for HCO temperatures but we do have evidence for warmer temperatures here (NZ) 5-6000 kpa. However these are glacial records and it was pointed out to me that by topographical and ablation considerations, current glacial retreat will likely exceed those boundaries within decades - without any FURTHER warming. It would be interesting to whether same was true for NH proxies. Secondly, I dont think HCO is useful analogue. We are heading back to pliocene CO2 levels, not HCO and more importantly, it is the RATE of change that is important, not where it goes. Milankovich cycle driven change is slow. Thirdly, if we continue to emit, we will be back a Miocene levels. Milankovich cycles operated then - the big difference between then and now is the composition of the atmosphere.
  12. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    Lets not cherry pick particular dates please unless you're using the summer minimums...
  13. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    What would [KL's] conclusion have been concerning AGW had the graph terminated circa 1985 or circa 1995, for example? So many recoveries from which to choose! Every few years, another ray of hope. Truly we live in the best of all possible worlds.
  14. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Hi everyone, The "wiggle" is real, and is just that, a wiggle. Additionally, as has others have quantitatively shown here (and as has Hansen et al. 2010), it is not of statistical significance. The long-term trend remains positive and shows no signs of slowing. Regardless, how did KL fail to notice the other wiggles in the same graphic? What would his conclusion have been concerning AGW had the graph terminated circa 1985 or circa 1995, for example?
  15. There is no consensus
    My, what a political turn this thread has taken. If the scientific case against anthropogenic climate change is weak and one has ideological reasons to ignore that, I guess any opportunity for advantage must be seized.
  16. Berényi Péter at 06:39 AM on 3 October 2010
    There is no consensus
    #232 kdkd at 13:00 PM on 2 October, 2010 That's local government agencies who have decided to participate in the campaign, not providers of sponsorship. You are kidding, are you? David Cameron announces his ambition spon·sor
    1. One who assumes responsibility for another person or a group during a period of instruction, apprenticeship, or probation.
    2. One who vouches for the suitability of a candidate for admission.
    3. A legislator who proposes and urges adoption of a bill.
    4. One who presents a candidate for baptism or confirmation; a godparent.
    5. One that finances a project or an event carried out by another person or group, especially a business enterprise that pays for radio or television programming in return for advertising time.
    The British government signs up to 10:10, assuming responsibility for the campaign and the group behind it, including a promo depicting reluctant kids to be blown up. A rather generous publicity boost for a private company while shooting themselves in the leg. Hilarious. "Further, and crucially, the solution to carbon emissions will eventually be technological not ideological. Most personal efforts to show willing will in the long-run make no meaningful difference [...] their lobbying activities encourage empty promises rather than sustainable change"
  17. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    @NETDR: "When people like Al Gore go to congress and ask for reparations for Peruvians who are freezing to death because of our CO2 climate scientists are silent." "If a volcano erupted in Iceland one day the next day there would be a study claiming that volcanoes are caused or at least made more frequent by global warming." "The extremists are ruining the credibility of the real climate scientists who are too frightened to speak up." Please provide actual evidence supporting any of these allegations. Oh, and what does "the science is abdominal" mean, exactly?
  18. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    ... trust has been seriously shaken by the scientists own inaction. More incoherence. Scientists should involve themselves in policy decisions. Scientists should not involve themselves in policy decisions. It all depends...on what? Ideology? If a volcano erupted in Iceland one day the next day there would be a study claiming that volcanoes are caused or at least made more frequent by global warming. Don’t climate scientists know this makes them appear foolish ? What an embarrassingly crude and wrong fabrication.
  19. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    @johnd: "I think you missed the point my earlier comment was making." No, I think I got it quite right. It's you who seem to misunderstant my intent. "it was all about the apparent opinion you hold in that other posters here, especially those who are on the same side of the debate as yourself, are simply incapable of deciding for themselves whether or not there is any merit in what NETDR was posting" I certainly do not have this opinion. Rather, the opinion I hold was simply that it's better not to respond to troll, and I was arguing the merit of having that opinion. It is precisely because I believe people on this site are quite intelligent that I argued in favor of ignoring what I consider to be a troll. By presenting them with rational arguments to support my opinion, I am trusting their good judgement will cause them to agree with me. "and whether or not they should respond to his posts without having to be told by somebody who has appointed themselves as their apparent guardian." So, in your opinion, to make a suggestion that we should ignore someone is "appointing" oneself as their guardian? You've got a pretty skewed view of reality, if I may say so myself. Either that, or you're (ineptly) trying to shame me into silence, which is a much greater threat to free expression than what I'm suggesting. Tell me, how long have you been posting on Internet forums such as this one? "They are not as naive or as stupid as you seemed to allude to." I have never alluded to this, and I would appreciate if you stopped insinuating that I do. I consider such an accusation to be rude, and uncalled for. "As for your comments about unspoken rules amongst contrarians, that may be how you see it, but that doesn't mean there is any such thing, I certainly don't think there is." How many times have you corrected an incorrect statement made by a contrarian? By "unspoken rule" I don't mean some sort of conspiracy, just the very human tendency not to criticize those who are on the same side of a divide as us, even when they make clearly false statements. "Sceptics by nature are willing to consider alternative ideas. In fact if you think about it, the range of views held by sceptics precludes it," Right. Does the range of view preclude you from correcting other contrarians when they say something erroneous? Because I don't remember you ever doing so. "it would be more something held by those who are united in one belief, people such as yourself." We are not "united in one belief," we agree that the evidence supporting AGW is strong, and we accept the theory is likely true. Anyway, enough on this off-topic distraction. You are free not to follow my advice and argue with NETDR all you want. I have to say, however, that so far your actions seem to closely follow my suggestion. :-)
  20. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    J Murphy What we post on this site is not very important in the wider world but you do bring up an important point. When people like Al Gore go to congress and ask for reparations for Peruvians who are freezing to death because of our CO2 climate scientists are silent. But Al Gore isn’t a scientist but by their silence they allow him to speak for them. Silence means consent in this case. When John Holdren speaks of “climate disruption “ or as some call it “weirding weather” [so now weather IS climate?] no one stands up and corrects him. The extremists are ruining the credibility of the real climate scientists who are too frightened to speak up. I have news for you John. No warming no disruption! If a volcano erupted in Iceland one day the next day there would be a study claiming that volcanoes are caused or at least made more frequent by global warming. Don’t climate scientists know this makes them appear foolish ? As someone once said of a huge complex and probably wrong computation of the effects of nuclear weather. “The science is abdominal but I don’t want to appear in favor of nuclear war.” Climate policy is based upon trust of the scientific community and the trust has been seriously shaken by the scientists own inaction.
  21. There's no empirical evidence
    The link to Law Dome Ice Core under Figure 1 points mistankingly to Taylor Dome Data. This is the correct link to Law Dome Ice Core data.
  22. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    JohnD, you have led yourself to a place you probably did not intend to go. Based on your latest remark, it's apparently your opinion that most people are fundamentally too unintelligent to be able to understand some first principles of physics and then be led through a process of exploration and elucidation by researchers to follow these principles to some conclusions that are beyond the realm of "opinion." That's a remarkably insulting opinion, but perhaps I'm wrong. Can you explain where the gulf of understanding arises here, follow the science back to the point where the average man in the street is too dull to follow the plot? On a side note, your apparent belief that you yourself are able to discern useful facts from pointless speculations suggests you believe you're in command of ground truth. Coming from a person who based an "alternative" hypothesis for energy transport to the top of the atmosphere on a failure to understand the difference between latent and sensible heat, I find this conceit quite remarkable. But again, perhaps I'm mistaken and you do not believe yourself to be uniquely intelligent.
  23. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    johnd wrote : "As for your comments about unspoken rules amongst contrarians, that may be how you see it, but that doesn't mean there is any such thing, I certainly don't think there is. Sceptics by nature are willing to consider alternative ideas. In fact if you think about it, the range of views held by sceptics precludes it, it would be more something held by those who are united in one belief, people such as yourself." I struggle to think of more than one or two times that I have seen any so-called skeptics on this site arguing against any of the wilder claims posted from time to time. Perhaps you don't think it's your job to do so ? As for sceptics naturally considering alternative ideas, that probably explains the acceptance by some that the greenhouse effect is false. That is certainly an 'alternative idea' ! How about the earth being flat; or the moon being made of cheese - alternative enough for you to consider ? Finally, "the range of views held by sceptics", especially when more than one are held by the same person at once, certainly precludes rational discussion. As is the case with the theory of evolution, if you have one theory accepted by the majority (especially in the scientific world) and many counter-theories (mainly involving religion), it is easy to determine where the rationality lies and where the blind belief is. Isn't it ?
  24. IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?
    ...would'nt it have been easier for the IPCC to have simply restricted itself to past climate history, instead of making projections for the future? Sort of like insisting that we all buy and use seatbelts, without explaining why we should.
  25. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    GC, the IPCC did at least bother to spend a few words exclusively dedicated to uncertainty. Not enough, clearly, or not effectively in any case. That said, always nice to see our opinions roughly in alignment, heh! Like some sort of infrequent astronomical conjunction...
  26. IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?
    RSVP wrote : "Aside from all this, would'nt it have been easier for the IPCC to have simply restricted itself to past climate history, instead of making projections for the future? If a chemistry investigation leads to knowing that a particular product or chemical causes cancer, that information is plenty for people to take action." I disagree. I think it would have been daft, and left the IPCC open to accusations of only doing half a job, if they had stated only what you think they should have stuck to. If they were only to mention what has happened and what is happening, the next question would be - 'What is going to happen ?'. It all follows, one after the other. Who do you think should be answering that question ? Also, how can you really judge if a product actually causes cancer unless you set up some sort of trial which can give some form of statistical significance to the question ? How can you judge whether people living in an area with Radon as a constant background radiation are rationally doing so because the risks are far outweighed by the benefits ? You start with what you know, determine what you need to know, make projections, carry on studying and act accordingly as and when deemed necessary. In the end, surely, most risks have to be judged as much on their potential for causing future harm, which is why I always have a little chuckle when a so-called skeptic (as evidenced on another of these threads) reckons that the danger from an extraterrestrial object is more immediate and therefore should have more money pumped into a solution than is being presently 'wasted' on the projected AGW dangers. But just how are either of those dangers determined if not by future projections based on known facts; and surely a scientific consensus among many disciplines determines which is a more immediate threat ?
  27. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    archiesteel at 00:25 AM, I think you missed the point my earlier comment was making. It had nothing to do with whether NETDR was presenting valid arguments or not, it was all about the apparent opinion you hold in that other posters here, especially those who are on the same side of the debate as yourself, are simply incapable of deciding for themselves whether or not there is any merit in what NETDR was posting, and whether or not they should respond to his posts without having to be told by somebody who has appointed themselves as their apparent guardian. They are not as naive or as stupid as you seemed to allude to. As for your comments about unspoken rules amongst contrarians, that may be how you see it, but that doesn't mean there is any such thing, I certainly don't think there is. Sceptics by nature are willing to consider alternative ideas. In fact if you think about it, the range of views held by sceptics precludes it, it would be more something held by those who are united in one belief, people such as yourself.
  28. We're heading into an ice age
    Perhaps SkS should start a separate thread on noctilucent clouds, which apparently are predicted to be both more common as well as moving into lower latitudes w/warming of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, here's an intriguing article about a powerful laser being borrowed from Europe by the Australians and hauled to Antarctica with the objective of further investigations: Scientists use giant laser to measure cloud temperature
  29. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    #48:"The earth will be hit by a comet or asteroid large enough to destroy civilization. The question is not if but when. ... CAGW will have to get in line with all of mankind’s other problems. " This is utterly nonsensical non-reasoning. The case of comets or asteroids is a low probability event; the case of global warming is a high probability (if not already certain) event. Never mind that those 'trillions of dollars' might have beneficial results: development of more efficient, less carbon-intense alternative energy sources for one. Maybe that's the real reason for such fierce denialism: fear of losing one's carbon-based paycheck. As far as getting in line is concerned, in the US that line goes through Congress, where even such obvious things like relief for the Haitian earthquake refugees are blocked by obstructionists.
  30. IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?
    Yes, RSVP, you're right in your hypothetical. However, that hypothetical as an analogy for GW doesn't work. Here's a better one: my dad died of small/oat cell lung cancer last year. Ninety-seven percent of the people who have/had that type of cancer are smokers or were smokers. My dad was a smoker. He was warned thirty years ago. He didn't believe the science. He died a very painful death (I gave him morphine every hour for the last day). When the activity gives pleasure, and the consequences seem distant and unbelievable, it's tough to alter behavior. Even being confronted with facts can sometimes backfire. Even this analogy isn't good, because GW will have (is having) social, not simply personal, effects. The social mass is notoriously difficult to motivate, and particularly so when the core of that mass is (and will be) well-insulated against the worst of the change.
  31. We're heading into an ice age
    Thank you JMurphy for the heads up about the Rwanda gorillas. Robert Felix's web site slants news to suit his theory and I grabbed that off of there as a recent phenomenon. As far as noctilucent clouds, does the IPCC use them in their considerations? I know Robert Felix doesn't mention them at all in his ramblings. Here is an article that wonders why the thermosphere is shrinking more than expected from just the solar minimum alone. Carbon dioxide build up is blamed for that cooling but only partially. Something else in the make up of the thermosphere is leading it to shrink, to cool. Shrunken Thermosphere Appears the increase in noctilucent clouds comes from rising methane emissions and it is thought that the disturbances from rising carbon dioxide lead to weather extremes that push water itself up to the mesosphere. Here is an article talking about unusually low, split and faster jet stream leading to weather extremes: Wayward Jet Stream Possibly noctilucent clouds are a missing piece of the puzzle that cinches the Hamaker hypothesis which is detailed in a 1989 film you can get here: 1989 film "Stopping the Coming Ice Age" Incidentally, those ice crystals of the noctilucents, they apparently collect dust from micrometeorites as well as stuff maybe that gets blown up from the surface turning them into first surface mirrors. Seems increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its consequences are coating the planet with highly reflective mirrors far above the greenhouse gases: Why noctilucents are inordinately reflective.
  32. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    chriscanaris #39, You give Hegel a pass because of the "standards of a different era", then you used Newton's dabbling in alchemy to bolster your case, even though he lived 100 years before Hegel!! Shouldn't we judge Newton by the standards of his religion-obsessed era, also? To return to the present, the "weightings" to give to climate feedbacks should be determined scientifically. I think you are confusing those with the political weightings that will guide action in the real world. As we all know, some groups are "more equal than others" in the political sense. Thanks, I will watch Schneider and Julian Simon. Simon was an economist (or at least a professor of business management), who is usually identified with "Cornucopianism", the theory that the Earth can support humanity foreven in the manner to which we have become accustomed. Simon was the ultimate anti-Malthusian, in fact. I doubt if climate feedbacks form part of the discussion. I (and I think any scientist) would be wary of "synthesizing" scientific theories and ending up with a plastic fuzzy. The fact that Newton's theories arise as a limiting case of General Relativity is not a synthesis. Political synthesis is to be expected, yes, but on conditions of justice and fairness. "Social Democracy", for example, is often presented as a synthesis of Communism and Classical Liberalism, retaining the best features of both.
  33. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    @KL: "that 'flattening' wiggle at the end of Albatros' (Post #55)temperature curves for the last 10 years is difficult to ignore." That flattening isn't statistically significant. It is not very different from the dip in the mid-80s, or other slight "corrections" of the temp increase (to use a financial term). Cherry-picking time frames in the historical record, one can find many examples of flattening, dips and the like - yet, temperatures have kept going up. About SLRs, it seems you are wrong as well. From the Pew Center on Global Climate Change: "More accurate satellite measurements indicate that global sea level has risen by 1.2 inches over the past decade, about 70% faster than the 20th century average." As far as OHC goes, the Purkey and Johnson study gives a good hint as to where the "missing heat" is hiding (with troubling implications).
  34. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    @NETDR: you failed to address a *single* of The Ville's counter-arguments.
  35. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    @johnd: "So whilst you may consider that science is not about opinions, how different contributors select and present supporting arguments on this site is most definitely all about opinions." You're stretching the meaning of "opinion," here. There's a difference between citing scientific work because you have the opinion that it addresses a certain point, and basically stating your opinion that (for example) CO2 is not a greenhouse gas without providing actual evidence to support that opinion. For example, you objected to my earlier post where I gave my opinion that NETDR is a troll. That is an example of an opinion that, according to you, has no place on Skeptical Science, and to a degree I do agree with that evaluation - I wish I didn't have to make those kind of posts, but when trolls start to take over comment sections you have to act. I'm curious, though: can you explain how NETDR has helped move the scientific discussion forward? Do you agree with the arguments he's posted? If not, why didn't you say so? Could it be because of the unspoken rule among contrarians that you never argue with someone on "your side," even if they say thing that are clearly false? I would expect serious skeptics like you, BP and others to be the first to correct erroneous claims from posters like NETDR - after all, their unsupported attacks reflect badly on *all* skeptics.
  36. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Ken #116 You'd be better off admitting you got it wrong. If you like you can look at it as an estimated baseline. Still nothing to do with equilibrium. It's a point estimate. By definition the rate of change of a point estimate is zero, because it has precisely 1 dimension. One could run a model to estimate what the climatic response to a constant CO2 concentration since 1750 would be. I would imagine that a reasonable answer would be forthcoming from such a model. You can probably dig around the literature to work out what value that would be if it's of interest to you. However this is still nothing to do with your illogical search for the mythological equilibrium. You have misunderstood how the system is modeled.
  37. IPCC Reports: Science or Spin?
    To say that CO2 is a greenhouse gas is as meaningful as stating that air acts as a heat or electrical insulator, or that salt water acts as an electrical conductor. While these words contain truth, the facts in themselves are insufficient for making system level determinations. Yet this is exactly how AGW was originally formulated and currently being defended. Aside from all this, would'nt it have been easier for the IPCC to have simply restricted itself to past climate history, instead of making projections for the future? If a chemistry investigation leads to knowing that a particular product or chemical causes cancer, that information is plenty for people to take action. I suspect in the case of climate change, even though warming has already impacted our lives, these changes have not been dramatic enough relative to other negative stresses. Therefore in order to gain attention, pessimistic projections into the future are required.
  38. An underwater hockey stick
    Surprising how fast the oceans respond? I don't know about fast. But I am a bit concerned about our current inability to determine if or when another 1998 style el Nino could come roaring out of the oceans. Another jolt to remind us to get on with the job of measuring just how much energy can accumulate down there. I'm not terribly keen on seeing another spike like that.
  39. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    CBD #114 CBD - "A forcing of zero indicates no CHANGE in temperature... not no temperature." Strictly no CHANGE is energy added or removed. Who is claiming 'no temperature'?? CBD - "If we choose the total solar irradiance in 1750 as the baseline then the climate forcing for solar irradiance in 1750 is zero... by definition." The TSI is AD1750 is not accurately known - so the problem is twofold - what was it then, and what value of TSI was required to get no heating or cooling of the Earth system in the absence of any AG forcings. Or put it this way - if the industrial revolution never happened and the CO2 was still at 280ppmv today with other GHG unchanged - would the Earth have warmed or cooled since AD1750?
  40. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    John T Here's a side by side picture of Arctic sea ice for 20 August 1980 & 2010. Notice anything different over the 30 years on say the east of Greenland or in the Canadian archipelago? Or perhaps the amount of ice cover itself?
  41. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    "The Arctic ice result isn't what you claim. The Antarctic is not either." JohnT, The post's claim is that "Overall, Arctic sea ice is getting thinner." Presumably, you believe it is not. Evidence? Here is sea ice concentration (30% or more) and extent for two dates 20 years apart. Spot the difference?
  42. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Ned #108 We have done this extensively elsewhere - but that 'flattening' wiggle at the end of Albatros' (Post #55)temperature curves for the last 10 years is difficult to ignore. Oh I know that you need 14 years to be 'statistically significant' or whatever, but Jason SLR is also flattening over the last 8 years, and linear temperature trends are probably approximations of a non-linear system in any case. OHC since Argo is certainly not confirming anything but flattening.
  43. gallopingcamel at 23:47 PM on 2 October 2010
    Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
    Ned (#34 etc.), "I know that "skeptics" like to claim that the only choices are burning fossil fuels or de-industrializing." I think you are making an unjustified generalization about "skeptics". Some of us advocate a drastic reduction in CO2 emissions without destroying our energy based civilization. This blog is not into "solutions" so I won't elaborate other than to say that the solution is to "build a Nuke a day". For those interested check out a typical thread on "Brave New Climate": http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/09/28/2060-nuclear-scenarios-p1 Here is a link to a paper by George Sanford et al. that contains some amazing speculations: http://tinyurl.com/jtop6
  44. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Ken #113: "Well Ned, if there was zero forcing for GHG's in AD1750, is not the conclusion that the Earth was neither heating or cooling from GHG's?" No. A forcing of zero indicates no CHANGE in temperature... not no temperature. "My point is that since the Earth has warmed a claimed 0.8 degC since 1850, a finite amount of energy has already been absorbed to effect that warming and the proportion of that energy attributable to Solar forcing is underestimated if such forcing was above zero in AD 1750." If we choose the total solar irradiance in 1750 as the baseline then the climate forcing for solar irradiance in 1750 is zero... by definition.
  45. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    Ned #104, CBD #105 "You're right, the forcing for GHGs in 1750 is 0 ... because we've chosen 1750 as a baseline! It's not because there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in 1750, nor because they were at "equilibrium" in 1750." Well Ned, if there was zero forcing for GHG's in AD1750, is not the conclusion that the Earth was neither heating or cooling from GHG's? For sure - GHG's are in the AD1750 atmosphere at aro 280ppmv for CO2 etc. but at that long term level the Earth has reached an 'equilibrium'. If there were GHG forcing above or below zero, then the curve for GHG forcings would start at that positive or negative offset above or below the 'equilibrium' baseline. This is unlikely as most of what I have read assumes zero or negligible forcing from GHG in AD1750. Ned #107 CBD #105 NP #111 I am following the methodology of IPCC AR4 Fig 2.4 in looking at each AG radiative forcing. My point is that Solar is not necessarily baselined to zero where the other AG forcings are - and the time integral of these various forcings will sum the total radiative energy applied to the system since AD1750. Climate responses - (1) IR radiative cooling and (2) WV and ice albedo feedback, will have their own curves and the time integral of these will add or subtract energy from the AG and Solar energy applied. At the present (Dr Trenberth's Aug09 paper) these sum to a forcing of minus 0.7W/sq.m (IR: -2.8 and WV & Ice Albedo +2.1). Since the IR cooling is exponential with T^4, this cooling term will rise rapidly so the Earth system will tend to reach an equilibrium as the forcing gap closes. WV and Ice Albedo are not defined by an equation I can find. My point is that since the Earth has warmed a claimed 0.8 degC since 1850, a finite amount of energy has already been absorbed to effect that warming and the proportion of that energy attributable to Solar forcing is underestimated if such forcing was above zero in AD 1750. In that case the energy attributable to CO2GHG forcing must be less, and CO2GHG warming also less than claimed.
  46. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    The Ville 46 Wrote You are NETDR fooling yourself if you believe uncertainties are a reason to pull back. Such thinking does not occur in modern engineering and if it does you get oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico and other similar accidents. ******* Here we have the famous precautionary principal which is primarily used to justify massive expense that the science is too weak to support. The earth will be hit by a comet or asteroid large enough to destroy civilization. The question is not if but when. We should be practicing moving rocks in space right now to avoid this, in my opinion, far more likely catastrophe. The damage done to society in the form of diverted resources is far less and the benefit is greater, so where are the space ships? CAGW will have to get in line with all of mankind’s other problems. If we divert the tens of trillions of dollars from mankind’s real problems for an unlikely alternative you get starvation and even death for some. Since the subject of this article is "uncertainties" how to deal with them is in my opinion on topic.
  47. gallopingcamel at 23:22 PM on 2 October 2010
    Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    I read the RS report and can't see what all the fuss is about. I can't improve on what doug_bostrom said (#43): "Disagreement over communicating uncertainty was the impetus for an update to the RS report yet the report entirely fails to address uncertainty as a key topic." Even with the changes, the RS position is still almost indistinguishable from that of the IPCC.
  48. Does Climate Change Really Matter?
    #40: "Do you have a Climate Science 101 answer or reference for why small changes in average temperature have such a large effect on the climate? " I thought Ned made that point in #38: "a small temperature change averaged over the entire globe is actually a huge change in the climate", ie, the heat energy equivalent of 2-3C throughout the volume of the atmosphere is quite large. We're already seeing big-time changes in a mere 1C. As far as #39 "muoncounter's house destroyed by a volcano?" is concerned, I'm riding happily on the margin between stable craton and gently subsiding miogeosyncline. I'm far more likely to go due to a late-season hurricane.
  49. Irregular Climate podcast 11
    Cryptic? No. Clearly JohnT is saying that the claims about the Antarctic in the article are not true. Of course... the article doesn't mention the Antarctic at all, but that doesn't make JohnT's post 'cryptic'.
  50. Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
    @Albatross #8. Yep, probably was. Well found. But my point remains: I'm surprised that I haven't seen more of this sort of demo and discussion. To my mind it more-or-less bypasses any discussion of historical temp records.

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