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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 11751 to 11800:

One Planet Only Forever at 08:41 AM on 2 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

nigelj,

Thanks for the reply (and thanks to scaddenp, Mal Adapted, and all those I am forgetting to mention - sounds like an awards speech).

We, including scaddenp, do seem to have a lot of understanding in common. Though admittedly my thinking is more radical (less common), as pointed to by Mal Adapted (and I do appreciate that radical is not necessarily a negative term).

One minor difference in our thinking is that I believe many moderate conservatives may actually be easily 'put off' by claims like potential free-riding promoted by a Carbon Fee and Rebate system (potentially seen to be taking from the richer and just giving to the poor). In Alberta, Canada, and the USA, the conservative opposition to climate action is not opposition to net increased government revenue. The New Conservatives in Canada vehemently oppose Carbon Fee and Rebate policies, successfully appealing for support in places full of moderate conservatives like Alberta by calling the actions Tax programs that will do nothing to reduce emissions (they leave off the point about the rebate and their fans do not question it).

Another minor difference I hope you will change your mind about is what the name 'Green New Deal' means. The New Deal was the radical socioeconomic action plan developed to correct the massively harmful and unsustainable socioeconomic conditions that had developed in the USA decades ago (pre WW2). It had many opponents, including people who would probably have been thought of as moderates, because it costs the supposed economic winners of higher status some of their status relative to others (it made rich people poorer and poorer people richer, but the richer were still richer than all others). But it was undeniably required at the time. A similar socioeconomic condition has redeveloped in the USA. So a New New Deal is being proposed. What is being done is the addition of the Green component because of the importance of the relatively new required corrections for climate action. It is also done because of the synergies of things like new employment in renewables and the ability to connect all the different 'helpful' interests into a common understanding. But the corrections of the GND will make some of the currently richer people signficantly poorer (especially the ones who made big bets on fossil fuels), and those threatened people are gathered in (actually pushed for the creation of) the likes of the New United Right GOP.

One of the things I need to be more aware of is that my life experience in Alberta, Canada, is probably a far more powerful exposure to the recent (past 30 years) of Unite the Right groups like the GOP developing effective resistance to the clearly required corrections that all global leaders have long been aware were required. People in other regions of the world will not have that intimate experience with that development. I consider myself to be a fiscal conservative, social progressive, who is aware of the importance of helping others, particularly the future generations of humanity. The last consideration is the reason I often comment on how much trouble the current generation is in because of the lack of consideration of the future by previous generations. I see the admission of the need for correction to be an important step (like it is for any harmfully addicted person). Some moderate conservatives may be open to admitting they were incorrect and change their mind to support corrective action on climate change. But the developed socioeconomic-political systems and the resulting Tribes that many conservative-minded people are now in are seriously stacked against that happening. Being Socially Progressive is a significant aspect of my thinking that has kept me outside of the developing New Conservative Tribes.

The collective diverse Tribe gathered under Unite the Right banners can be seen to include people who want to resist just about every correction that is presented in the Sustainable Development Goals (and the GND). And people tempted to continue to identify with the newly developed Unite the Right Conservative Tribes can only remain Loyal to the Bosses of the New Tribe by being a supporter of resistance to the required climate action corrections. Any person who does not want to be part of that resistance probably has to 'Leave the Tribe'.

The identification of the harms being done by the Unite the Right leadership are potentially the most powerful wedges available to spring moderates free from the Tribe they still try to identify with (more powerful than any amount of better presentation of technical details regarding climate science or related economic evaluations, though that work is critical and must continue). Admittedly, that may not be a simple task, even for a moderate conservative. A lot of developed perception of status is potentially at stake. And unlike political Liberals (using the current political understanding of that term) who likely only have Fairness added to the core moral objective of Helpfulness (with Fairness unlikely to be at odds with Helpfulness), a political Conservative may have to undo incorrect beliefs about the merits/value of Loyalty, Respect for Heirarchy, Perceptions about what is Pure and Good, and beliefs about Liberty (like the flawed belief that Good results will develop if everyone is freer to believe and do whatever they please).

There is potentially a lot of hard to do corrective change for a Conservative to work through. It could be perceived as significantly reducing their developed self-image. But helping them focus on helpfulness may help them understand that through the corrections they are actually developing a more sustainable and defendable self-image, participating in Tribes that are part of a larger and diverse collective of more sustainable helpful Tribes that they can proudly have Good Reasons to be Loyal to the Leadership of.

Any attendees to Davos who change their minds to more aggressively help achieve the corrections that Greta has pointed out is 'their responsibility to be clear leaders of the development of' will be able to be justifiably prouder of themselves. The others will deserve ridicule to embarrass them into behaving better (because they need to behave better).

RedBaron at 08:19 AM on 2 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

AEBanner @211 ,

As others have pointed out, your approach has serveral fundamental flaws, but I think conceptually your biggest flaw is in forgetting the radiative factor back into space.

You can't just accumulate all the energy accumulated between 1966 to 2016, because most of that energy radiates right back into space. Just like most the suns energy radiates right back into space.

The only thing that matters is the net. This means what matters is the greenhouse gasses. And now we are right back at CO2

Eclectic at 08:02 AM on 2 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

AEBanner @211 ,

sorry, your calculation is not even close (nor do you get even a small cigar! ).

Nor can you say that an accumulation of joules, ergs, watts, Terawatt-years (or BTU per minute) from human-caused oxidation, can be magically limited to only the thin gasseous part of our planet.

Everything is connected over time. The planetary air is pressed up against 300+ million square kilometres of cool ocean . . . and so the "careful sequestration" that you wish for, is simply impossible.

AEBanner, your idea is far from new. It's all been looked into & assessed ~ years ago.

swampfoxh at 06:54 AM on 2 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

One more thing: The Permian extinction of 249 million years ago is a pretty good example of how bad things can go when GGEs exceed "Goldilocks" conditions. Some argument exists over how long it took for the Permian catastrophe to develop before 97% of all life on earth was marched off to extinction. But, rough estimates claim the climate went from "reasonableness" to "hell" in about 120,000 years. If CO2 (in the Permian) went from, say, 170ppm to 5,000 ppm, as the seas turned purple, as the sky turned a pale green and noxious gases emerged from the dead oceans...what could we possibly do to fix a problem like the Permian when, today, we are moving CO2 from 260ppm to "whatever" at a rate possibly 43 times faster than the Permian? Is it even possible to define what it means to "slow" climate change?

swampfoxh at 06:27 AM on 2 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

TO: Nigelj

Yes, a "difficult to prove" set of numbers. Both the UN FAO and the World Bank have a separate set of numbers because they are including a different set of categories. EPA ignores animal ag's contribution to GGE in the areas of deforestation, desertification, eutrophication of the oceans, acidification of ocean water from animal ag chemicals, etc, etc, fresh water depletion and native species extinctions. Both of these studies ignore the GGE of slaughterhouses, on site refrigeration, refrigerated transport of market ready animal products and all of the people who's personal GGEs are emitted by being employed in animal ag. It probably gets worse. On the other hand, fossils fuels are easy to count because governments know how much we dig up, how much we sell, and how much money, per gallon or MCF, all governments get from producers. And yes, my population numbers are a little low...seems like I just looked them up a few months ago and they set at 7.3 billion, but by adding more than 177,000 people per day to the planet...don't take very long for things to add up.

Regards, and thanks for your continued participation in the dialog.

swampfoxh

nigelj at 06:07 AM on 2 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

One Planet Only Forever @ 51

Yes you could argue the carbon fee rebate embodies a social concern, but only to placate the Republicans ideological concerns about too much big government , and only as a necessity. There's a big difference between this, and the structure of the GND and its socio economic components.

Don't get me wrong. There is clearly a big overlap between social issues and environmental issues. The Democrats would be expected to have some Party Philosophy on this big picture and how they think things should be approached. Clearly capitalism also has some problems there is abuse of power by the rich and something simply has to be done. But this is overall party policy (and while we desperately need some idealism, hopefully they dont lurch to extremes and do daft things).

My concern is entirely "political strategy". I go along with Mal Adapated's view on the issue, more or less. The Green New Deal is by its title an environmental document yet it contains a mixture of environmental and social policies, and as has been pointed out this complicates it, and probably alienates the conservatives, and you probably have to get at least some conservative votes to get any environmental laws passed. You certainly need to get centre votes and swing votes to govern and they typically dont like extreme policies. The GND looks like borderline acceptability to swing voters.

Fortunately the group presenting the GND has toned down some of the socio-econmic goals, and its now somewhat better as here.

But all these socio-economic concerns might have been better in a separate "economic new deal" that at least makes it harder for the GOP to attack everything by associating everything together too much. Its a strategic thing.

However the socioeconomic goals in the GND do at least largely appeal to me, and The GND may gain traction simply because it takes such a bold, comprehensive stance.

I agree people can learn to be more helpful. I think it's an instinctive value and not unique to liberals or conservatives. I know of no evidence that it is stronger in one side of polictics. I see the problem more the way conservatives resent forced helpfulness like social welfare programmes for example, but at least one can make a logical and economic case for these. The majority of Americans support these things, according to polls, and its the politicians that are more divided, so its more of an issue about the power structures of Americas government and how they have become so detached from the will of the majority. But there are still ideological differences between conservatives and liberals on government programmes, and I'm not sure how that is best fixed. It goes deep.

My purpose on stating some people developing a conservative attitude as they age was merely to demonstrate we are not quite as unchangeable as Scaddenp thinks. Some also go the other way and develop liberal values, I have seen it. I probably chose a bad example to make the point.

As stated people are born liberal or conservative and basic leanings go deep, but some level of change is also possible it seems but is perhaps a slow process. And moralising is not pointless. We make determinations that certain thing are wrong, like stealing peoples property, and eventually all sides of politics have accepted such things, but clearly developing legal codes based on morality is a slow process. Trying to argue the climate issue in a similarly moral way seems right to me, but equally looks like it would take forever to persaude people! Maybe thats the problem.

Where Scaddenp also has a key point is getting conservatives to adopt very deep and fundammental liberal tenets, ideas, values can be "very hard work" at times and so another approach is to find common ground and justifications for ideas that might resonate with conservatives (eg renewable energy is "clean and pure" and profitable rather than promoting it simply as morally desirable, or that people who oppose it are bad people, even if they are)

I don't think you and Scaddenp are quite as far apart as you probably think. A lot of this is about being precise about definitions.

AEBanner at 04:08 AM on 2 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

Thank you MA Rodger and Eclectic for your comments, but I am afraid that you have both completely missed the point I am making.

Firstly, though, my data came from the very data set you refer to, MA Rodger; namely the BP dataset, although the one I used went much further back. I took the figures each year from 1966 to 2016 inclusive.

You both seem to think along the lines of Watts per sq.metre, which is not my approach in my work.

I simply deal with the amount of primary energy, in Joules, consumed in total over the 50 years period from 1966 to 2016 inclusive. I added up the annual figures provided by the BP Statistical Review, as mentioned in my “paper”, but separately for the two hemispheres. It is these total amounts that I am using, not these values worked in reverse to get Watts per square metre.

The total amounts of energy as calculated in my work must go, initially, into the atmosphere because that is where it starts. From there the energy is distributed into the oceans, the continents and so on, but some remains in the atmosphere. This is illustrated very well in the IPCC report
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter5-1.pdf
and scroll to 5.2.2.3 Note that this data only goes up to 2003. We find that the energy entering the oceans was 89.3% of the total anthropogenic energy, and the energy remaining in the atmosphere was 3.14%, this latter figure being subject an error of +or – 40%. This means that the proportion of the total anthropogenic energy remaining in the atmosphere was between 1.89% and 4.40% of the total. The I have subsequently used the value 3.14%.
Please note that the number of joules entering the atmosphere was attributed to Kevin Trenberth.

The resulting kinetic theory then provides the temperature increase in the atmosphere, as calculated.

A careful reading of my wordpress post

https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

makes all this very clear, and you will see that excellent results are obtained.

One Planet Only Forever at 02:10 AM on 2 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

nigelj,

Responding regarding:

Directly linking environmental concerns with social concerns
Increased conservative attitudes as people get older

I will start by pointing out the potentially radical awareness and understanding that the 'addition' of Rebate to a Carbon Fee is linking a social concern with an environmental action. A Carbon Fee alone is an economic action that can change behaviours regarding the 'environmental concern'. There is no 'environmental need' to add a rebate component. A constantly increasing Carbon Fee is all that needs to be implemented (not some calculated carbon cost, just the Carbon Fee increasing as required to achieve the required result). Of course, just focusing on the environmental concern also leads to the obvious result of 'acceptable' actions being whatever the powerful winners of the competitions for status are happy with. And the logical conclusion of that competition is people with higher status not being happy with anything that would reduce their developed perceptions of status. The winners can be expected to only be happy with maintaining and increasing their perceptions of status regardless of 'consequences suffered by Others'.

Conservative attitudes will definitely been seen to develop as the part of the brain that allows rational consideration of the potential consequences of an impulsive thought becomes a working part of the human brain. That capability develops in most minds by the age of 25. And that development 'would make a person more conservative than they were before it fully developed'. But the socioeconomic-political environment a person develops in can also significantly affect their development of helpful critical thinking (as opposed to the type of critical but incorrect rationalization that can so easily be done instead). And admittedly in cultures with competitions for impressions of status relative to others that allow more freedom regarding actions and perceptions of status, many people will resist putting that ability to helpful purpose, because they have been building personal perceptions of status on understandably harmful actions. And some people will resist giving up developed perceptions of status for themselves or the group they have joined (or created to help them resist losing understandably undeserved perceptions of status)that is well used by many people.

Climate Action needs to be understood to be an 'added required correction' to the other identified changes of direction of development and corrections of what has developed that are presented in the Sustainable Development Goals (and all of the other similar presentations of what is needed for humanity to have a sustainable better future). The GND is a sub-set of the SDGs (the SDGs are more comprehensive than what is in the GND and the developed understanding is that achieving all of the SDGs is required - only achieving some of the SDGs actually achieves nothing sustainable). But the GND is a Good Step in the Right direction for correcting leadership thinking and for correcting the system that has been incorrectly developing popular thinking in the USA.

Greta was correct to declare that the problem was 'the lack of responsible leadership by the attendees at Davos'. Some may be trying to behave responsibly. But obviously only having some winners have to admit (because of popular pressure) that they need to correct things in ways that will be helpful to the future of humanity and diminish their developed perceptions of status, particularly the ones unjustifiably fighting against a 'loss of undeserved status within their Tribe of Winners' is not Good Enough.

Climate Science has unwittingly exposed the unacceptability of the socioeconomic-political systems that have developed, and exposed the reality that many people and groups with developed perceptions of higher status are not deserving of their perceived status (and will fight to Conserve their undeserved Winning, including taking control of or forming United Conservative Labelled Tribes that will support Their resistance to being corrected). That will not be corrected by 'clearer presentation of technical facts'. The resistance to correction is not playing a fact-based game. Exposing the type of game actually being played is required. It is a misinformation game filled with appeals related to incorrectly developed harmful perceptions of "Values", incorrect perceptions used to trigger resistance to the developments and corrections identified in the SDGs. Note that the SDGs are open to improvement (that is how they developed), and so is the GND. But those improvements will not negate any of the key awareness and understanding that has already been established (just like new climate science is highly unlikely to not change the majority of the currently developed awareness and understanding of climate science and the required corrections of developed human activity).

One Planet Only Forever at 01:15 AM on 2 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

scaddenp,

All 'learning' involves improving (increasing and correcting) a person's awareness and understanding. And learning can be accomplished at any age.

Being helpful can be learned, especially when awareness and understandings have been established (that are open for continuous improvement) that can be used as the basis for better identifying what is helpful (like the Sustainable Development Goals).

Achieving the economic corrections required to keep the global warming below 1.5C or 2.0C in ways that do not make more people desperately poor is the required solution.

Other actions that pragmatically side-step the social circumstances can trigger or fuel (has triggered and fuelled) violent actions, like the yellow-vest protests in France (and worse in Syria and the Sudan).

And a carbon tax and rebate is less action than what is now required because of the pragmatic leadership actions through the past 30 years. And the conservative middle appears to have little will or ability to support even a weak implementation of Carbon Fee and Rebate in the USA (the middle appear to have become powerless pragmatics remaining loyal in the New GOP or retiring from politics).

The social elements are probably in the GND for Good Reasons. Pragmatic leadership actions can be seen to have made WW2 the debacle it became (corrective actions were started too late). And the inattention by Republicans and Democrats to the plight of the poor propelled Trump to the Thin Win of the Presidency he achieved, not because he cared to help the poor, but because he took advantage of the tragedy that had been created by Pragmatic Leadership on both sides.

Admittedly, resistance to correction is a powerful thing. There is indeed plenty of evidence that it is very easy to tempt people to believe that they do not have to correct their thoughts. However, pragmatically 'getting along' by letting people be harmfully incorrect is not very helpful, and is potentially very harmful (in spite of developed perceptions misleading people to want to believe otherwise).

Things like the GND and SDGs justifiably question and challenge developed perceptions of how Good the developed political leadership Really is in the USA and around the planet. The likes of Trump are right about change being required, but their type of change (increased resistance to correction of awareness and understanding) is not helpful.

As to the question of me becoming like a climate science denier in a Red State: The scary thing is the way that Sally Kohn's "The Opposite of Hate" exposes how even people who were Good Neighbours can be tempted to do horrible things to their neighbours. It is even easier to get supposedly Good People to do harm to people they do not know (Sally's book also exposes how people who have behaved horribly can learn to become helpful). I would hope that I could not be tempted to become like a harmful denier in a Red State or a member of a harmful political tribe (or a harmful radical Eco-warrior that would cause harm to loggers by putting spikes in trees). I hope to resist having that happen to me by striving to constantly improve my awareness and understanding of how to be helpful (having that objective over-power the Other Moral Urges that can lead to the systemic development of harmful Values that can be hard to correct but do need to be corrected).

MA Rodger at 00:14 AM on 2 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

If you look up 2017 Primary Energy Use from the table on page 8 of the BP 2018 Review of World Energy (13,551 million TOE or 157,000 TWh or 17.9TW or 0.035Wm^2) it comes out below 20TW.

As this SkS graphic (perhaps a little out-of-date now) shows (from this thread), Primary Energy Use is tiny on a global scale.

Global Energy Inputs

John Hartz at 00:06 AM on 2 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

Recommended supplemental reading:

The Green New Deal and the Strength of Ambiguity by Alan Neuhauser, US News & World Report, Mar 1, 2019

Teaser: The proposal is forcing Democrats to pick a side and propelling the environment into a top 2020 campaign issue.

Eclectic at 23:51 PM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

Apologies ~ that should have been Terawatt-years annually

. . . or just plain Terawatts, of course.

Eclectic at 23:36 PM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

AEBanner @207 ,

on my back-of-envelope calculations :-

Earth surface area : 510 million sq. Km

multiply by +2 watts/squ. meter (of solar-origin greenhouse) imbalance

= 1020 Terawatt-years of warming.

The ubiquitous Wikipedia shows humans' energy consumption about 20 Terawatt-years. (You could probably add slightly to that, to allow for an inefficiency fudge factor . . . but then you probably ought to subtract hydro power and a tiny amount for solar power etc.)

So ~ human "industrial" heat production would be roughly 50x smaller than the additional warming "from AGW".

AGW effect was less than 1 watt/squ.m. say fifty years ago . . . but human industrial power was also much less, then, too.

Overall, your energy idea seems dead in the water. ( Barring an embarrassing error on my envelope! )

AEBanner at 22:24 PM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

Anthropogenic energy could be causing global warming

AEBanner

The sum total of all the primary energy used since 1966 is enough to explain the measured warming of the Earth's atmosphere. Energy data was taken from the BP website.

I have corrected the link to my post on wordpress, as below.

https://wordpress.com/read/blogs/154908990/posts/50

I should be very pleased to receive constructive comments here.

Eclectic at 21:45 PM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

Nowhearthis @11 ,

you made a lengthy post earlier today on another thread.

The essence of your post, was that the recent rise of atmospheric CO2 from 280ppm to the modern-day 400ppm . . . had only a small component due to human burning of fossil fuels.

It follows, that you are asserting that the 280 up to 400ppm rise has a mostly natural causation.

Please, Nowhearthis, inform the readers here at SkS about the natural mechanism you believe is predominantly causing that large atmospheric CO2 rise. (And preferably show it in a "confirmed" way . . . and without using terms like "may be".)

If you cannot demonstrate such natural mechanism, then your whole argument that the observed global warming is uncorrectable . . . does simply fall flat on its face.

Or were you also trying to argue that CO2 has inherently negligible global warming effect anyway? (An argument which would leave you with zero logical credibility.)

MA Rodger at 21:31 PM on 1 March 2019

New research, February 4-10, 2019

nowhearthis @21,

You appear to exhibit all the markers of someone in denial over AGW.

To pick up on one comment you make:-

" We mus also understand the CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control."

What do you mean by this statement concerning the "most generation" of CO2? The 'generation' of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels over the last century or so is all due to humankind. So presumably you are talking of something else. As you insist "we mus(t) understand", what is it you are actually talking about?

nigelj at 16:20 PM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

"What demonstrated proof exists to show the GND will reverse climate change."

None. We cannot test the Green New Deal on some artifical planet in a laboratory. We only have one shot at this thing, the real world.

Neither could we be sure the very first experimental vaccines or the very first motor car would work. We had to build one and try it out.

What we know for a fact is certain aspects of the green new deal would work. More renewable electricity generation would be built assuming political support continued for the plan. We also know for a fact this would at least slow down climate change. We can't guarantee exactly how much, but we can estimate approximately and sufficiently for practical purposes. We can also have good confidence in the other aspects of the GND.

You got a better plan? Do you appreciate the considerable risks climate change has for humanity?

(I dont agree the Green new Deal is entirely the best approach but its certainly one possible way. The socio-economic provisions complicate the plan.)

nowhearthis at 15:40 PM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

I asked this fundemental question on another topic and got lots of avoidance and reinforcment of the causes of CC, but no actual answer/citation. I'll tune it to this topic: What demonstrated proof exists to show the GND will reverse climate change.

Please omit claims that use terms like "can", "may", 'appears', etc. and state "does", "confirmed", "has" etc. The former is 'faith' the latter is 'reality'.

Moderator Response:

[JH] The Green New Deal is a proposal for action by the US and the US only. The mitigation of man-made climate change will require a concerted and coordinated effort by all countries of the world because the Earth's climate system is global. Your question is therefore illogical and your post borders on sloganeering which is prohibited by this site's Comments Policy.

Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.

nowhearthis at 15:23 PM on 1 March 2019

New research, February 4-10, 2019

I believe people in Africa (or any country for that matter) consume food and require crops to meet that demand. You also must understand humanity doesn't exist in a vacuum, 3rd world societies want 1st world benefits. They will work and evolve to achieve that and that's a game changer for the climate change solutions proffered today. Regardless the reference was largely related to the 'total solution' picture conveyed by RedBaron. Easily the most insightful and enlightening comments I've heard in this discussion. The reference to 'tax payer funded' is grounded in reality. Can you name a single large, scale, privately funded CO2 reduction effort?

I've reviewed IPCC documentation - NONE, shows a proven, difinitive, demonstrated solution. Certainly CO2 climate issues can be demonstrated - that is a cause NOT a cure. We mus also understand the CO2 is a small part of the atmosphere and most generation is outside human control. Additionally, that CO2 is largely the reason this planet is inhabitable. I absolutely demand validation from any medical practitioner, for their advice, therapies and medications - you don't? Few things in life are certain, but demanding reasonable proof and not operating on assumption, makes sense to me.

Re. nuclear detonations, I didn't intend to distract, only point out a possible reality. Hiroshima? It was miniscule (15kt) vs today's weapons technologies that can yield thousands of times that. A serious exchange could easily be cataclismic and render climate change concerns irrelevant.

I keep going back to the fundemental issue. I've seen no proof FF reduction cures climate change, particularly in a localized context, if you have proof provide it. If there is an IPCC paper not littered with "appears", "can", "may", etc. and uses "does", "has", "did", etc. I must have missed it, please send me the liink/reference. I hear lots of avoidance and see many pretty graphs, but nothing answering the basic question: Where is there proof the climate change mitigation strategies actually work?

nigelj at 10:58 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

Scaddenp @48, yes. I have written detailed letters to Labour imploring them to be practical and remember centre voters. If you don't win enough votes you can't to a thing. Helen Clark understood it. However there is the risk you end up with weak policies, so its not an easy balance.

Lian Dann is right. The underlying plan is probably just a cgt on investment property, probably a sellable proposition. Clobbering small business is not.

I agree I think it was a mistake to put socio-economic values in it the GND. I think what has happened in America is growing tribalism, and The Democrats are hurting form Clintons loss, and have reacted by swinging left. Some media commentary is saying this. As a result they have sort of exploded, and dumped everything possible in the Green New Deal possibly without thinking of the strategic implications.

However The Democrats did need a "branding exercise" of some sort because its become unclear what they really stand for. But better to keep it separate from environmental stuff.

scaddenp at 10:19 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

nigelj, I think things are better here because the political fights have always looked to the center and swinging voters. The policies of the extremes on either end cant be sold to the electorate and politicians know it. If for instance Labour goes ahead with a CGT, they will be committing politcal suicide if they dont make it a lot more palatable to the right (or at least centre-right). You already see the processes at work for that. I doubt even the Greens (at least ones with any political experience) would try and sell something like Green New Deal to the electorate.

scaddenp at 10:13 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

OPOF - literature doesn't usually conflate moral foundation with values but I guess idea is pretty similar. The idea that one can "govern" others is fundamentally at odds with concept. Foundations/values are what govern the pre-conscious reaction to something. Since it is pre-conscious, it is what it is, and you cant change it. What happens in the conscious mind after that is largely rationalization of the pre-conscious judgement.

Helpfulness will be used to justify that conclusion (eg a right-wing denier is going claim that peoples job, hard-earned income, and freedoms are at jeopardy thanks to leftist plot. Spot the rationalization?)

You arent going to change that with discourse. I ask again, can you think of any argument that would change your values to that of a red-state denier?

John Hartz at 09:57 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

scaddenp: recommended supplemental reading:

Our kids need us to act fast on climate change by Heather McGhee, Grist, Feb 27, 2019

nigelj at 09:47 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

Scaddenp @44

"The drivers which switch behaviour though depend on working with human psychology rather convincing people to do things because it is "morally right".

True in the main. One example in NZ is conservatives, despite being tribal, and historically a bit sceptical of immigration and multiculturalism have become more accepting of immigration and multi culturalism, and why? Not so much moral lecturing I admit. It's the potential to make money! And to be seen to be open minded?

But I think over time this all alters the psche as well, and deeper lingering xenophobic attitudes possibly disappear as well.

I say "in the main" because it seems to escape you that moral judgements are inescapable. Eg most of us agree stealing is wrong. This is appealing to morality and both sides have reached agreement on it. I think the issue here is it takes considerable time to solidify society wide agreement on basic morals and elements of criminal law.

"What is hard to do (impossible), is change the voter of a tribal elector. (Betrayal, Disrespect). And unfortunately a host of other things including attitudes to race where it is tied into tribal identity (apparently so in much of US)."

Yeah true, tribalism can become like a vicious self reinforcing cycle and then we have a war. Terrible thing. America are falling into this cycle.

How far can people bend? Take the UN development goals (and forget the UN label). I could believe the majority of conservatives could embrace these. There's nothing to suggest they are alien to underlying values of fairness, purity, authority etc. The main sticking point is how much should one country help another? And also how they are achieved? Is itindividual initiative or state action, and here conservatives are suspicious of "big government".

Now here is where we have a big sticking point because some things require some level of "big government", eg universal healthcare. No matter how much we try to find a psychological or economic mechanism to justify universal healthcare that appeals to conservatives (eg it gives us a strong productive population) it still comes up with a, ideological fight about big v small government ideology. How the hell does one resolve that?

Personally I think we have to make a rational case for things like universal healthcare and hope most people accept it. Fortunately in NZ both sides do seem to accept "moderately sized government" and the fight is around the edges of issues, and is not as tribal and ideologically driven as America. We are a pretty pragmatic lot in NZ.

OPOF,

Helping others is a fine basic value to encourage. I think it sits at the top of the values pyramid. The issue is conservative resentment of things like tax payer funded welfare programmes. It seems to conflcit with their deeply seated disllike of so called big government, however fortunately a rational economic case case can be made for many government programmes thus avoiding too much moralising on it.

Not that moralising and rational / economic cases are mutually exclusive. I think we can do both.

One Planet Only Forever at 09:25 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

scaddenp,

All I am saying is that all Values can be governed by improved awareness and understanding of the essential importance of helping Others including helping to develop sustainable improvements, and make required corrections of unsustainable harmful developments, for the benefit of the future of humanity.

There are indeed competing values. A set of six have been pretty well identified by studies and been presented comprehensively by Jonathan Haidt in "The Righteous Mind". What was not presented in the book is the importance of Helpfulness governing how all the other Values are Valued.

All of those Values can be, and need to be, Governed by the Value of 'Helpfulness - Do no harm', which is One of the Six.

The other values related to Fairness, Loyalty, Purity/Cleanliness, Acceptance of Hierarchy, and Liberty can all be understood to be able to be limited/governed in their acceptability by Helpfulness. Making any of the other Values more important than Helpfulness is not helpful, and can actually be very harmful. That can be understood by everyone.

Ger at 08:46 AM on 1 March 2019

Prices are not Enough

Some research done in Asia of the potential of CO2eq avoidance gives between 18.7 to 22 tons/ha/year CO2 equivalent, which can be reduced with water management (60%), removal of straw from field (30%) and slow release fertilizers. Mainly CH4 is the source.

source: Vietnam average rice cultivation emissions (https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/959124), thO2 is from own calculation for a particular area in the Mekong from the Biomass resource map ESMAP 2018.

If RedBaron is mentioning 5 - 20 ton, it will be CH4 and N2O avoidance, not so much CO2. As for avoiding CH4 etc., a mineral book keeping method does work, regulating how much minerals are optimal instead of dumping tons of manure and loads of artifical fertilizers onto pastures.

Pushing a Emissions Trading System ETS where (developing) countries can trade their (simple) avoided GHG gasses with developed countries to fund better equipment (power plants, tractors) and infrastructure (dykes, roads, efficient transport, irrigation).

scaddenp at 07:07 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

Well as per my comment elsewhere, I am not a fan. While stated green goals are laudable, it has a social agenda likely to simply alienate the centre and further polarize the politics. It makes me angry to see politicians (of all colours) choose to further cultural wars on an issue as important climate change.

scaddenp at 06:57 AM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

I cant see anything either. Doesnt matter whether I login to wordpress or google, I see nothing. You arent going to get any traction unless you put it on public site. It is likely you can see it because you are are owner and it believes you to be logged in. Trying opening it with a different browser from the one you log into it with. I suspect you also need to change the visibility settings for your blog.

scaddenp at 06:48 AM on 1 March 2019

New research, February 4-10, 2019

MA Rodgers - I grabbed the "Sustainable Energy without all the hot air" graph primarly because I knew it existed and was in a hurry. Unfortunately, the graph is developed over several pages to explain all its subtlety. This page has similar data (to 2011) but lacks the population-perspective.

scaddenp at 06:41 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

Biological determination is relatively new hypothesis, but immutability of values has been long observed. Whatever the underlying mechanisms, they seem set at an early age.

OPOF - what I am claiming is about values. Behaviours are mutable - provide there isnt a perceived conflict with internal values. Which is just as well because behaviours are primarily what we want to change. Changing attitudes to plastic are a good example of where things want to go. So.. these are achievable:
Recycling - if it has become the accepted thing, (people look down their noses if you dont), then a social instincts easily rule. Heavy handed forcing though might provoke backlash based on perceived loss of freedom.
Switching to electric vehicles. Same as above but if EV also has status then so much the easier.
Buying renewable power - carbon tax is your friend since buying renewable is avoidance of tax. You might even get better uptake if carbon tax revenue was spent on something reprehensible ( but a lot harder to get the tax into law).

The drivers which switch behaviour though depend on working with human psychology rather convincing people to do things because it is "morally right".

What is hard to do (impossible), is change the voter of a tribal elector. (Betrayal, Disrespect). And unfortunately a host of other things including attitudes to race where it is tied into tribal identity (apparently so in much of US).

nigelj at 05:52 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

"It targets fossil fuel use as the main problem, but animal agriculture is the main problem...fossil fuel is the lesser problem...by a fair margin."

Looks like you are wrong.

"On top of those two problems is the largest problem of all...overpopulation. The greenhouse gas footprint of humans, 7.3 billion or so (last count), is the only problem that can't be solved by fiat, policy or acceptable pain."

In fact population is already below replacement levels in countries like S Korea and Germany and we know what policies have driven this. Could be expanded globally if we wanted. The population problem is not unsolvable

Sunspot at 05:36 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

Current world population is estimated to be 7.7 billion. (Google)

william5331 at 05:24 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

Excellent program, much needed and likely to be very effective if followed. Unfortunately a complete waste of time and effort. https://mtkass.blogspot.com/2018/01/wasted-effort.html

AEBanner at 05:01 AM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

New thoughts about the cause of global warming

To the Moderator

I'm sorry you have had difficulty accessing my post on wordpress. I have again tried the following link, via Google, and it loaded without any trouble at all.

https://wordpress.com/post/hotgas.club/50

I agree that is somewhat pretentious to call my idea a theory, so I have re-phrased it simply to be "new thoughts". Clearly, I cannot cite previous work because, as far as I know, this is original. However, the figures on which the work is entirely based come directly from the BP Statistical database, as qouted in my post.

I really should be grateful for a critical review of what I have written.

swampfoxh at 04:02 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

I'm confounded. I've been tracking the literature on this site for six years. Where is it that the Green New Deal is something special? There is not a single new idea in any of it, unless we consider its ourageousness, "new". It targets fossil fuel use as the main problem, but animal agriculture is the main problem...fossil fuel is the lesser problem... by a fair margin. On top of those two problems is the largest problem of all...overpopulation. The greenhouse gas footprint of humans, 7.3 billion or so (last count), is the only problem that can't be solved by fiat, policy or acceptable pain. So, eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we shall not see the future.

One Planet Only Forever at 03:34 AM on 1 March 2019

A Swedish Teenager's Compelling Plea on Climate

scaddenp and nigelj,

As I have mentioned, my guiding objective is improving awareness and understanding to help develop sustainable improvements for the future of humanity.

A large diversity of sub-values can be gathered under that Universal Rule.

And no matter what pre-disposition a person is born with, they can learn to develop within that governing principle.

The human behaviour problems that develop are almost certainly due to the envirnment the individuals experienced and developed in. 'Breaking Cycles of Harm' is a well established understanding. And groups like AA rely on the ability of people to, with personal effort and support, behave different.

As more people become aware of that, the systems will change, and so will the types of people that develop in the socioeconomic-political systems.

Admittedly a few 'highly-resistant to correction' people will need to be kept from being able to significantly affect or influence Others (be kept from participating in public competitions for development of impressions relative to Others). But the majority should be expected to want to be more helpful, less harmful, by improving their awareness and understanding.

AEBanner at 01:44 AM on 1 March 2019

The Big Picture (2010 version)

Energy Theory for Global Warming

I should like to offer an alternative theory to explain global warming.

Please visit my post at https://wordpress.com/post/hotgas.club/50

I should like to receive your comments here.

AEBanner

Moderator Response:

[DB] Even after a mandatory login with Google, your site would not load. Unless you have observational evidence to support it, your conjecture does not rise to the level of a theory.

John Hartz at 01:16 AM on 1 March 2019

What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand

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