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Eclectic at 18:15 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @44 , as you see for yourself, Dr Crockford's commentary is little better than rhetoric & cherrypicking.
That is very obvious to you, me, and any scientific thinker — regardless of whether a polar bear expert or otherwise. Crockford's focus on whether some of the Beaufort bear sub-population have lost weight, is very largely an irrelevancy to the "big-picture" that she alleges to present. Even worse is her focus on extremely short time-spans (such as the 8-year period mentioned in her comments).
More puzzling, is why you yourself have been drawn-in to focus your questions on such minutiae, rather than looking at the overall situation (including the long-term situation). You appear to have allowed yourself to be hijacked by your "specific friends" — who sound like straight-up denialists/science-deniers (call them what-you-will excepting "skeptics" — for if they were true skeptics then they would have abandoned climate-skepticism 20 or 25 years ago owing to all the scientific evidence available at that stage ! )
ImaginaryNumber, move your gaze from that one small leaf. Step back, and look at the whole forest. No point (unless you want the sport) in engaging with hard-core denialists — they are impervious to reason, and you cannot change them. Sadly. Neither logical arguments nor ad-hominem arguments will get through to them.
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JohnSeers at 17:54 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
"Dismissing Crockford simply because she isn't a polar bear expert ..."
Read more carefully ImaginaryNumber. Or do not try and set up a strawman.
What Bob Loblaw dismissed was not Susan Crockford or her points but the fake sceptics claims to build her up as an expert with the same credibility as people who have specialised in the subject for many years.
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nigelj at 17:53 PM on 12 March 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #10
I can just see exactly whats going to happen: " My insurance premiums have gone up $500 and they say its climate change. Why wasn't anything done about the problem?"
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nigelj at 15:03 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM and OPOF,
Regarding the so called revenue "neutral carbon tax", this is from Naomi Kleins article.
"Meanwhile, it would offset carbon revenues by cutting taxes for big corporations, including major polluters. (According to the Seattle Times, Boeing could see windfalls of tens of millions annually.)"
This makes the tax largely self defeating imho, so maybe she was right to oppose it. Perhaps Pinker wasn't aware of this, or think's its unimportant.
While something is better than nothing, this tax looks too close to a nothing. If the tax cut was simply a personal income tax cut it, would have made more sense
I have read Kleins book This Changes Everything and it makes quite a lot of sense. Having said that, I dont think environmentalists etc should be demanding some combination of climate policies and economic reform, because it will just make already complex things into one package too huge to deal with, and would alienate The Republicans. But I do think Klein is right in many of her criticisms of neoliberalism, and something simply has to change, but as a separate things from the climate issue.
However when The Republicans point at Klein and claim that this shows climate science is really socialism in disguise, they are really using the views of just one person to create a false impression of climate science as a whole. Its a strawman and weak argument.
Norris I have bought a copy of Pinkers book. I will add it to the pile of things to read. I agree Canadas level of socialism appears sensible enough. I'm liberal, but towards the middle of the bell curve somewhere.
But America seems more to the right than NZ, even the Democrats are almost centre right leaning compared to other countries.
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NorrisM at 14:42 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
OPOF @ 29
Perhaps this will not make you Feel Good, but here is the exact quote from Pinker at pages 138-139:
"In one of the most surreal episodes in the history of environmental politics, Klein joined the infamous David and Charles Koch, the billionaire oil industrialists and bankrollers of climate change denial, in helping to defeat a 2016 Washington state ballot initiative that would have implemented the nation's first carbon tax, the policy which almost every analyst endorses as a prerequisite to dealing with climate change."
Do you think I am misrepresenting what Pinker had to say about Naomi Klien?
As to Feeling Good, I think Pinker's book Enlightenment Now might make you Feel Good about the world we live in.
On another matter, I do not think you could do better than appointing Steven Pinker as your benevolent dictator because from the general flavour I get from your comments (on many threads on this website) you do not seem to have much respect for the democratic process. This lack of respect for democracy is very troubling to me and I hope for others on this blog. Perhaps you can disabuse me of my view of your attitudes.
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ImaginaryNumber at 14:09 PM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
My thanks to all of you who have commented. I'm working my way through the links given, and will respond to those later. But first some general comments ---
Eclectic said: "ImaginaryNumber @39 , regarding polar bears, Dr Crockford is more [paid] propagandist than scientist."
I understand that, but it is irrelevant with the specific people I am discussing polar bears with. I, and they, are only interested in the scientific arguments, not with who paid whom.
Bob Loblaw said: "You use the phrase "...don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks..."
It is the fake skeptics that claim that Crockford is an expert on polar bears. It is they that present her background as evidence of that expertise. Tearing apart that "evidence" is not "ad hominem". Crockford does not present as a credible "expert".
Dismissing Crockford simply because she isn't a polar bear expert, and not specifically addressing her arguments, is an ad hominem attack. I suspect none of you (and certainly not me) are polar bear experts. But that doesn't stop us from expounding on the topic.
Again, I am working my way through the links you're provide to see if they answer the specific questions that I listed above in post 39. Thanks for your help.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:23 PM on 12 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM@28,
I am composing my thoughts regarding your recommendation of Pinker's book. I plan to complete that, and try to keep it short but will not limit the extent of logic/reason (philosophy) in it, but I wish to point out that Pinker may have misrepresented Naomi Klein's position regarding what is happening in Washington State. And I would add that it took me less than 10 minutes to look up exactly what Naomi Klein said on her website item "The Carbon Tax on the Ballot in Washington State Is Not the Right Way to Deal With Global Warming".
I have to say, what Naomi Klein says appears logical and well reasoned. It appears you either misrepresented what Pinker had to say about Naomi Klein, or you were uncritically reading Pinker, maybe because it made you Feel Good.
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nigelj at 12:33 PM on 12 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Riduna @15, just to be clear by rapid sea level rise I mean several metres per century. I agree its certainly very possible, but surely low probability as against high probability?
For example the last IPCC report had the upper limit at 1 metre so clearly by implication they think chances or probabilities of more rapid sea level rise are low.
We dont know rates of sea level rise in the Eimean. This was a period of many thousands of years. However its certainly at the very least suggests current temperatures will lead to several metres of sea level rise, its just the speed thats in question.
Current rates of acceleration suggest 600mm to 1000mm by end of this century. Which is bad enough. Loss of ice shelves in Antactica could well lead to more rapid sea level rise, but the current real world data is suggesting nearer 1 metre.
However, just in case I wasn't clear in some way, (I thought I was) even low probability of rapid sea level rise, or uncertainty about the chances, is still extremely concerning, because the consequences of rapid sea level rise would be truly devastating. So people need to be thinking in those terms, and risk management principles and the precautionary principle need to apply. I hope I dont need to clarify this again.
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Riduna at 09:35 AM on 12 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
nielj - ‘Imho probabilities of extremely rapid sea level rise may be small’
This is similar to saying that the probability of sustained polar ice mass loss may be small. Among the reasons why I think this is unlikely:
- The level of greenhouses gasses already in the atmosphere is well in excess of levels prevalent during the Eemian when SLR was 6-9 metres higher than at present.
- Warming of the Arctic and loss of sea ice mass and extent is now occurring more rapidly than previously expected and is likely to accelerate GIS mass loss and release of greenhouse gasses from permafrost.
- Loss of ice-shelves is promoting faster glacier discharge in Antarctica and formation of relatively warm bottom water likely to erode the West Antarctic ice sheet more rapidly than hitherto thought likely.
Analysis by Dr Rignot of possible polar ice mass loss arising from these effects also suggests that SLR could occur rapidly and is likely to result in a multi-metre rise during the latter half of this century.
The present rate of SLR does not suggest this. This is because loss of land-based ice has been slow - starting off at a very low rate towards the end of last century but, 20 years later accelerating at a rate sufficient to give rise for concerns about SLR over the rest of this century.
A sea level rise in excess of 3 metres by 2100 is possible, even if deemed impossible 10 years ago and regarded as highly unlikely by many to-day. We can certainly delay this development beyond 2100 but can we prevent it? Possibly.
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Bob Loblaw at 00:22 AM on 12 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @ 39:
You use the phrase "...don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks..."
It is the fake skeptics that claim that Crockford is an expert on polar bears. It is they that present her background as evidence of that expertise. Tearing apart that "evidence" is not "ad hominem". Crockford does not present as a credible "expert".
The "fake expert" is a common tactic in the so-called debate on climate change:
https://skepticalscience.com/Resources-when-facing-firehose-of-falsehoods.html
You have been pointed to subtantive take-downs of her arguments. Read them.
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Eclectic at 19:15 PM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber @39 , regarding polar bears, Dr Crockford is more [paid] propagandist than scientist.
You will notice the [Desmog] comment that Crockford (despite some expertise in evolution) has never published an article on polar bears in a peer-reviewed journal. Nevertheless, she has received money/benefits (from blatantly anti-scientific organizations) and has written very one-sided propaganda reports that are at odds with the mainstream opinions of scientists who possess actual polar bear expertise. Her "reports" are strong on propaganda rhetoric, and are weak on overall science.
She does indeed bring (as she claims) "a unique 'big-picture' perspective to the issue of polar bear conservation." ~ More is the pity !
On the particular faults of her statements :-
ImaginaryNumber, you will especially notice how she conjures with very short-term periods (e.g. 8 years of polar sea-ice) and draws a long-bow assessment that "all is well: no problem to see here". In typical rhetorical propaganda style.
You would normally think that a zoologist with an interest in evolutionary development would instead be thinking & talking in terms of centuries and millennia (and multi-millennia of glacial/interglacial cycles). In other words, she completely fails to present the 'big-picture'.
She also plays fast-and-loose with polar bear numbers (and the equally important question of their condition/fatness). Polar bears' numbers are difficult to ascertain by ordinary aerial survey; and their actual condition is vastly more difficult to assess properly. Bears with year-on-year poor condition can very suddenly crash in numbers. At which point, the problem is much more obvious — even to propagandists.
Yet Dr Crockford is buoyantly optimistic about the overall situation, and she seems to turn a blind eye to the long-term decline of arctic sea-ice (the polar ice for which the very-white polar bear has evolved — and has also evolved to a highly-specialized meat/blubber diet rather than the omnivorous diet of the brown bear species).
As you see from its coloration and lifestyle, the polar bear is an ambush predator. It relies on ambushing seals which surface to breathe at small polynyas and ice-leads and smaller breathing-holes. (A bear may even dig through shallower ice to produce an "attractive" breathing-hole.)
Yet the relation between polar bears and the ice-environment is not as simple as other species/habitat ratios (e.g. orangutans and hectares of forest). Normally you would think that "specialized apex predator" versus "shrinking environment habitat" . . . equates to high risk of extinction. But with polar bears, we need to look at the interaction of bear/environment with seal/environment — it can indeed be complex, depending on the foraging/breeding abilities of the seals in low-ice conditions (low-ice conditions which at the same time severely handicap the polar bears).
In the overall picture, the polar bears will suffer severe decline (and likely extinction in the wild) as the planet approaches "prolonged zero" summer sea-ice over the next 100 years or so. Note: the polar bears survived through the [hotter-than-present-day] Eemian Interglacial 120,000 years ago — but arctic conditions at that time were able to maintain some coastal ice, owing to a a different set of marine currents.
But all that is unimportant to Dr Crockford : she seems intent on using the [short-term] polar bear situation as a propaganda proxy-argument to "dismiss" AGW.
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NorrisM at 14:12 PM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj @ 27
One more book to add to the list given that the son of my best friend (no surprise, a judge) recommended that book to him. I left Vancouver before he had had a chance to read it.
As to Pinker, I am not sure that I have an issue with libertarianism if it is combined with utilitarianism which I also see in Pinker. He clearly believes in a social security net to the extent it can be supported long term. His Jewish grandparents are Canadian from what I gather having escaped from Europe well before the Holocaust so he comes from an interesting background. I appreciate that this is a similar background of Ayn Rand but I do not see that kind of philosophy in Pinker. I would call this philosophy rather than politics although obviously they overlap. As in many things, it gets back to the continuum of personal liberties versus the collective good. Where are each of us on this scale? We clearly know where the Republicans are on this continuum which is problematic for the world. Ayn Rand was at one end and Karl Marx at the other. Most of us are somewhere in between and it clearly impacts our views on climate change.
Reading in Pinker's book that Naomi Klien led a group successfully opposing a carbon tax in the State of Washington astounded me. She objected to it according to Pinker because it did not punish the polluters enough. As Pinker points out, this was a pure example of pushing a broad political agenda which plays right into the hands of those Republicans who say the climate change debate is all a massive scheme to impose socialism on the US. I personally think the level of socialism we have in Canada is a good thing but it is anathema to Republicans as we all know.
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Digby Scorgie at 14:04 PM on 11 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
One day's jet fuel requires 34 223 acres of sugarcane. But I have a question: do you get 2500 litres from one acre every day or only when you harvest? The article does not make this clear.
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nigelj at 13:09 PM on 11 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Riduna, great interview particularly the staged press conference. I think America has at least 3 issues flowing from this.
1) Climate models don't fully include all possible feedbacks and tipping points and are likely to be conservative, that is the message I got.
Imho probabilities of extremely rapid sea level rise may be small, but given the repercussions are so severe, you have to elevate this low level of risk to something of high level of concern. People in government who don't understand this need to get out of the way.
2) Who regulates the environment, federal or state agencies? This appears to be at the core of the Trump and Republicans concerns about the issue. I acknowledge its a difficult one, and we have to avoid too much centralised power if possible, however environmental problems do not recognise borders, and this strongly suggests it has to be largely at federal level. This is just the reality of the situation, regardless of ideology.
3) The election cycle means 4 years of climate progress, 4 years going backwards, rinse and repeat. The problem is these political systems are no longer adequate to deal with large scale, long term multi generational environmental problems. The UK has recognised this, and given over climate mitigation to an independent body, and its probably no coincidence that they have cut emissions significantly, without economic problems. Instead of attacking the EPA in America, it should be strengthened.
4) The Republcans are very rigid on the climate issue. Sure try to convince them through explaining the Bible would promote conservation, and the security threats posed by climate change, but I don't know if this will do that much. Everyone in the country needs to be telling the Republican leadership that they are simply wrong about environmental issues. Nothing will change until they are under real pressure and are totally isolated.
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John Hartz at 10:05 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
From the Climate Feedback Reviews section of the 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9:
Climate Feedback asked its network of scientists to review the opinion piece, Polar bears keep thriving even as global warming alarmists keep pretending they’re dying by Susan Crockford, Financial Post, Feb 27, 2018
Three scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be 'very low'.
A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Biased, Cherry-picking, Misleading.
Review Summary
This article in the opinion section of Financial Post, written by Susan Crockford, claims that rather than being threatened by declining Arctic sea ice, polar bears are “thriving”.
Three scientists who reviewed the article explained that this article fundamentally misrepresents research on the topic. The author exhibits poor reasoning in arguing that polar bear population loss projected for 2050 should have occurred already if that science was accurate. Researchers do not ignore the evidence Crockford claims they do, but instead incorporate all published research on polar bear populations. Despite the article’s statements to the contrary, research shows that polar bear populations will struggle as ice-free periods (during which they cannot hunt for food) grow longer.
Financial Post publishes misleading opinion that misrepresents science of polar bears’ plight, Climate Feedback, Mar 2, 2018
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John Hartz at 09:51 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
ImaginaryNumber:
As has already pointed out to you, Crockford's psuedo-science poppycock has been thoroughly refuted by Dr Shaye Wolf* in:
Polar Bears at Ground Zero for Climate Change and Climate Science Deniers, Opinion by Shaye Wolf, DeSmog UK, Mar 5, 2018
Wolf draws from a number of peer-reviewed scieintific studies to rebute Crockford's propaganda.
*Shaye Wolf, PhD, is the climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity. She graduated with a bachelor's in biology from Yale University and received a doctorate in ecology and evolutionary biology and a master's in ocean sciences from the University of California, Santa Cruz, where she examined the effects of ocean climate change on seabird populations.
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ImaginaryNumber at 09:25 AM on 11 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Daniel and Bob, thank you for your comments. I'm no friend of the Heartland Institute, nor generally of those they support. But the skeptics I'm discussing the polar bear issue with don't take kindly to ad hominem attacks. So I was hoping that you at Skeptical Science could help me understand any possible flaws in Susan Crockford's arguments, as they pertain to the paper I linked to.
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/359/6375/568
https://polarbearscience.com/2018/02/01/polar-bear-specialists-double-down-on-message-of-future-starving-bears/
,
Apparently Pagano found that polar bears were sometimes not capturing enough ringed seals to maintain weight. (I haven't read the Pagano study because it is behind a paywall) Crockford wondered why Pagano didn't mention that typically Southern Beaufort Sea polars bears would have an abundant supply of ringed seal pups to eat during the spring of the year, and thus not have to depend on capturing adults. (Crockford provides references for her claim, which I can't verify.)Crockford then provides maps showing sea ice thickness for the years under study. These maps seem to show that sea ice thickness just offshore of the Beaufort seas was up to 5 meters thick. I don't know if this ice thickness is typical or atypical for this area? She then suggests that the thick ice played a significant role in forcing the seals to go elsewhere to give birth to their pups, thus creating a local shortage of prey for the polar bears.
Crockford then goes on to quote other reseachers (Stirling) who found that when they studied polar bears in the 1970s, during years of severe ice the number of ringed and bearded seals fell, and as a result so did the number of polar bears.
So my questions to you good folk of Skeptical Science are:
Is Susan Crockford missing critical information that would otherwise explain why some, but not all, polar bears lost weight?
And, did Pagano overlook any important factors in their study, such as ice thickness?
Moderator Response:[DB] "I haven't read the Pagano study because it is behind a paywall"
A full copy of the Pagano paper can be found here. See for yourself.
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nigelj at 06:29 AM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @26
Yes the enlightenment was very important, and numerous books have been written about it. Sad that America now seems to be going in the other direction.
Pinker is indeed more historical in prespective, and I do think it's good to acknowledge the positive achievements of humanity, and that many things have indeed improved. The media does give the opposite impression of course. As long as we have some healthy scepticism on some claims, like eclectics point about how povery is measured, something I have looked into myself. Things have improved overall in this regard, but not quite as much as some people like to claim.
I do give Pinker top marks for trying to be logical and balanced and avoiding taking a left or right perspective. It gives value and credibility to his work.
However I see a blunt libertarianism creeping in that I dont entirely like, and which is political ultimately, and it reminds me of Ayn Rand. But Pinker still does better than most in terms of avoiding political bias.
There is generational doom mongering, reinforced by a media eager to get attention. An economist pointed out to me theres always an economic crisis somewhere, but the world still moves forwards. I think the truth is in the middle on this sort of thing. The 2008 gfc was still pretty serious, and came close to a catastrophic disaster. It always comes down to detailed analysis of whats going on, and the best way forwards. Climate and economics are no different in this regard.
Best book I have read in years: "Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind, by N Hariri." Very wry humour and easy to read style. Good bits on the enlightenment, climate and environment.
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nigelj at 06:02 AM on 11 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
An area of sugar plantation the size of France and Spain is about half the size of the Amazonian Rainforest. There just isn't spare unused land sitting around anymore for biofuels.
You dont want to be cutting forests down or using arable land that is already cultivated, so sugar plantations will have to be on grasslands. We end up with less meat consumption which may not be a bad thing.
But nobody seems to have a global master plan for best use of land. Market forces are not appropriate in an unusual situation like climate change, and will just lead to destruction of forests.
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NorrisM at 04:46 AM on 11 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj and eclectic
Looks like Goldin's book is another one to pick up. Both articles are very interesting. Will get back to Pinker. I have read Shermer's earlier book and should also pick up his new one.
Will probably summarize my thoughts on Pinker's discussion of climate change once I am finished the full book.
My sense is that Pinker is primarily looking back at where we have come from and Goldin is attempting to look at the future. Obviously not all of man's developments can be attributed only to the Enlightenment but I think what Pinker is saying is that the Enlightenment changed the way we look at the world relying much more on science and reason rather than irrational beliefs (including religion) and superstition but also a higher respect for human life. I have not finished the book yet but if he does not credit Darwin's (Wallace) theory of evolution and natural selection with a major influence I would be very surprised.
But the facts presented by Pinker about our past are pretty encouraging that we can solve the ones in the future. I think that every generation has felt that the world is coming to an end. It is part of our apocalyptic nature I am afraid. It does not mean that we do not have real problems to solve but I think they can and will be solved (with the only asterisk relating to avoiding nuclear destruction).
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laurencerhunt at 03:49 AM on 11 March 2018Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise
Multiple factors are accelerating, and in some cases, interaction effects could increase the rate of acceleration (e.g., flows of warmer air and sea currents into the Arctic, combined with declining sea ice area, volume and quality, reduced albedo, sunlight penetration into open water, interactions with seabed carbon, etc.). One has to think systematically when making predictions for rate of sea level rise.
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william5331 at 19:29 PM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
If we are going to use the term Ice Age for the icy period between the previous interglacial (the Eemian) which occured about 125,000 years ago and the present interglacial (the holocene) then we must find another term for the two to three million year period in which there have been betwen 30 and 50 cycles of glacials and interglacials (or glacial periods and interglacial periods if you like). If you want to see why this is important, look at the BBC production Ice Age Giants to see how not using the correct terms confuses the true situation.
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william5331 at 19:18 PM on 10 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
The holy grail is a cost effective method to turn all the bagass as well into jet fuel. Sugar cane is a C4 plant which means it can turn much more sin into biomass than C3 plants.
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Riduna at 17:44 PM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The Science Show, broadcast by the ABC on 10 March, includes a ‘must listen to’ segment on climate change – now occurring ten times faster than in nature. It is available here
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Eclectic at 17:43 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @23 , thank you for the suggestion re the Pinker book. If you are already well into devouring it, then I will first await your summation of the gist of his ideas. Regardless of whether his ideas for solutions to current problems turn out to be conservative or revolutionary in method, I hope the warmth of your advocacy will provide a worthy distillation of Pinker's thoughts. We certainly need all the intelligent analysis available.
The analysis of solutions. Toujours de les solutions.
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nigelj at 17:22 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
Norris @23, I had a really good quick read of Pinkers book (I know the owners of the shop) and overall its a good book. I have also read his wikipedia page. Like I said he makes lots of good points, and he is a quality writer. You are mistaking a criticism or two of pinkers book, for a total rejection.
He is right that human nature is complex, however human nature is not totally genetically determined, and is more of a combination of nature and nurture. Some of his views are a little too libertarian for me, but he talks more sense than many people.
I'm a supporter of humanism in some respects, and science and I was already familiar with many of his ideas and the history of declining violence.
I did some psychology at university and I'm familar with ideas about language aquisition. I really like psychology, but a lot of it's still speculative and contentious. Remember this.
Read this article Norris, just for the alternative point of view "The limitations of Steven Pinker’s optimism. Ian Goldin questions an oversimplified model for our complex era."
Pinker and climate change. This is an interesting article: He does indeed push nuclear power, but windpower and battery technology has improved and reduced in price since his article was written.
Pinker also says "New fourth-generation nuclear designs, a decade away from deployment, will burn waste from today’s plants and run more cheaply and safely." Now a decade is a long time in terms of the goals of the Paris accord, and you can probably double fourth generation nuclear power to two decades away at least. It's been promised for ages now, and still hasn't materialised.
However I agree with pinker that linking the climate issue to problems of corporate greed etc (still very serious problems I might add) is probably not the right approach.
So yeah it's interesting. Like I said, I'm reading a similar book by Shermer so Pinker will have to wait!
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NorrisM at 16:29 PM on 10 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj @ 21 and eclectic @ 22
If you actually want to read a book that makes you feel good about where we have come from (based upon factual statistics and charts) I suggest that you both buy Pinker's book rather than just skimming it at a bookstore.
Pinker is ranked by Times and Foreign Policy as one of the world's most influential thinkers. His book the "The Blank Slate" was a very interesting but challenging book to read on an entirely different topic.
Pinker is not a climate scientist (he is a Professor of Psychology at Harvard conducting research on cognition, language and social relations) but has been writing and conducting research for this book for the last three years (this according to Sam Harris). He clearly has a significant research staff behind him. If you want backup for statements made in the book, you will get the references in dividends.
I have now got past Chapter 10 of "Enlightenment Now" where he deals with the environment. There is not anything in that chapter that I disagree with. I appreciate on this website that this might not be the strongest incentive to read the book but sKs gets a positive footnote reference in the book. He clearly is a strong proponent of the future potential of nuclear power as well as other possible solutions. I do not think any of the main contributors to this website would disagree with his analysis of the problem of AGW. They may disagree with his suggested direction for solutions, especially nuclear power and the (last ditch) possible solution of climate engineering.
But anyone who wants some perspective on where we have come in 250 years thanks largely to the Enlightenment he or she will be in for a very enjoyable and educational read.
eclectic, I challenge you to read something that is not from some conservative think tank but from a highly intelligent person (clearly left of centre) who is dealing with many issues in this book that affect our world and not just the climate. I trust you agree there are other issues in this world that we have to consider. See if your views are not at least modified somewhat after reading this book. My guess is that you will not take me up on my challenge. However, I suspect that nigelj will be so tempted.
To escape the danger of living in an echo chamber we have to challenge ourselves to read things that we might not like but whose thoughts are from rational persons (with no axe to grind) who also backup their factual statements with references.
You can disagree with what you take from the facts that Pinker lays out (I challenge you to disagree with his analysis of the facts) but see if you do not somewhat agree with his analysis of where we go from here on both climate change and other areas of human endeavour.
I personally think that this book will have a major influence on political discourse in America and elsewhere in the world. You are cheating yourself if you just stand at a bookstore and read Chapter 10.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:55 AM on 10 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
SirCharles @1
I was wondering about that too. One barrel equals 159 litres.
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nigelj at 09:24 AM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The drought in Syria has been linked to both climate change and their terrible civil war.
www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-hastened-the-syrian-war/
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Bob Loblaw at 08:30 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
What Daniel Bailey said.
FYI, Desmog UK has published another polar bear post, including discussion of Crockford and her credentials.
https://www.desmog.uk/2018/03/08/opinion-polar-bears-ground-zero-climate-change-and-climate-deniers
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Riduna at 08:26 AM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
The article claims that the effects of ‘business as usual’ could result in reduction of the human global population. It is likely that this will arise as a result of a combination of factors associated with climate change and SLR including:
- Increased spread of vectors resulting in more rapid spread of diseases, exacerbated by the effects of heat-waves
- Reduced capacity to produce and distribute food due to loss of arable land and infrastructure caused by SLR and climate severity.
- An increase in the incidence of famine and growing inability of the international community to respond.
- Hostilities and warfare as communities and nations compete for increasingly scare essentials of survival, particularly food and shelter.
Very early stages of these developments are already in evidence in parts of Africa (S. Sudan warfare, Sahel drought) producing famine conditions. Reduced food crop production due to heat waves, drought and scarcity of water essential for irrigated agriculture is also evident.
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Daniel Bailey at 07:32 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Probably because Crockford's "blog" isn't credible. Nor, due to obvious entanglements with FF concerns, is she.
If you care to bring research published in a peer-reviewed journal of some standing, doubtless your contributions would receive a bit more play. -
ImaginaryNumber at 06:55 AM on 10 March 2018How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
As a new poster (I made my first post two days ago, right above this one) I'm wondering if the reason there is no discussion about the recent polar bear studies I linked to is because no one is following this particular blog anymore, or because the issues raised by Susan Crockford are not of interest to this group?
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nigelj at 05:25 AM on 10 March 2018Southern sea ice is increasing
Argus, you commented that the antarctic has only had low sea ice last year in 2017, and this doesn't constitute a trend. Fair enough, however the drop in sea ice last year was so dramatic it should count for something, and could be the start of a trend. Only time will confrm this of course.
Have a look at this graph.
As you can see in the article above, there are theories on why antarctic sea ice has increased that are compatible with a generally warming climate. Its a sort of anomaly.
Another example. We also see a few glaciers advancing while most are retreating globally, according to the IPPC. Sceptics somehow bizarely claim this means the climate isn't warming. Surely the obvious rational conclusion is the climate is generally warming, but local weather conditions in a few countries cause some glaciers to advance for a few years. And this is exactly what the science also says.
Most things point to global warming such as melting ice in the arctic and antarctic continent, global sea level rise, and global temperatures. There are localised exceptions, but there are good explanations for these things.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that Argus has recused himself from further participation here, due to frequent violations of the Commenting Policy here and for running a sock puppet user here in addition to his own.
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nigelj at 05:11 AM on 10 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Argus @43, the moderator said the antarctic is off topic on this page. I will post a response on the page below.
skepticalscience.com/increasing-Antarctic-Southern-sea-ice.htm
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Argus at 03:56 AM on 10 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
nigelj #39:
I did not "claim" – I quoted an exact statement from an article, as is evident from both the quotation marks, and from the link.
You say my "reference is to old data". It is from 2016, and your reference is from 2017. So, in a year my reference is already too old? Is that really how fast the facts are changing? I thought it would take decades, before you could make completely different statements about climate.
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knaugle at 01:46 AM on 10 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
#8
Nigelj - you forgot the most compelling actual risk of all - unchecked population growty, which could fall under resource limits, but any biologist worth his salt will say then the collapes comes it will be very rapid.Still, that's no reason to ignore global warming, and other factors which surely make things worse.
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SirCharles at 00:45 AM on 10 March 2018Jet fuel from sugarcane? It’s not a flight of fancy
A European perspective: According to Index Mundi the worldwide jet fuel consumption in 2012 was 5,381,000 barrels/day. When we believe that sugarcane could yield 2,500 liters of bio-jet fuel per acre of land, then we would need an area of arable land which is at least as large as the whole country Spain to plant enough crops for the annual supply. And when demand for air travel is projected to double in the next 20 years, as the author stresses, we would need an area of arable land which is as large as Spain and France together.
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nigelj at 17:19 PM on 9 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
However "humanity" faces so many potential risks, I do sometimes wonder if it has a long term future. Climate change, asteroids, resource limits, mad politicians, dangerous cosmic particles, krakatoa size volcanos. Humanity exists on a knife edge.
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nigelj at 17:08 PM on 9 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Driving By, interesting theory but maybe, maybe not. I can't see a large drop in population anytime soon. I can't see a global religious war. People don't want global wars as much as in the past, and even ISIS is hated by most moslems.
Most population trends have global population peaking at 10 billion around 2100 and then either remaining static or falling but very slowly. It will only fall if family size drops below 2.1 children so this will take time to become accepted I think. Look up population growth on wikipedia.
So it doesn't look like small population will solve the climate problem. However population growth still has to fall 'eventually', or humanity will simply run out of resources. Its about timing, and I dont think population will start falling until well into next century. That means a long time to live with climate change.
However humaity faces so many potential risks, I do sometimes wonder if it has a long term future.
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Eclectic at 17:04 PM on 9 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @19 , we should not be too quick to believe that the problem of "extreme poverty" has been almost abolished.
What has happened in many so-called Developing Nations, is that a large slice of the rural population previously existing as subsistence farmers (and/or hunter-gatherers) is now living in urban slums, in abominable conditions of housing & work-scrounging, yet earning more than the $2 per day (which saves them from being classified as "extremely poor").
As subsistence farmers, they had zero official income (plus or minus some bartering in the unofficial black economy).
But, now living in the slums, they have elevated their income from the previously impoverished zero dollars to a much wealthier $2+ per day, and they enjoy the benefits of work-insecurity / unhygienic & polluted working-living conditions / higher crime / and a rather different level of self-esteem.
They have been lifted out of extreme poverty — according to the economists who like to measure Gross Domestic Product.
As a society, we don't deserve many pats on the back or other self-congratulations, when it comes to real measures of poverty.
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nigelj at 16:48 PM on 9 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM @19
Interesting that you mention Pinker. I happened to have a look through Pinkers book "Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress" just yesterday in my local bookshop. I confess this is the first time I had heard of the guy.
I think he "makes some good points" on the case for reason and the decrease of violence etc, and its good to remind ourselves its not all doom and gloom out there, but I was not impressed by the way he dismissed the problem of inequality. But then its a strange world where we agree on absolutely everything.
And we have to be careful of not congratulating ourselves too much on human progress, and becoming in denial about various problems. I see people excuse problems with silly general statements about how things are good in some other area of life.
I'm currently reading a similar book called the Moral Arc by Michael Shermer, that also argues violence has decreased and morality has improved (on the whole, some specific aspects have not), and argues very convincingly. And it's more founded in empirical evidence, and is less preachy than Pinker.
You keep repeating how our progress was fuelled by the cheap energy of fossil fuels. Yes it was but 1) you need to look forwards and recognise the problems with that fuel and 2) wind power is now cheaper than coal and solar power is close. So if you are concerned about cheap electricity, there is your answer.You should at least be supporting that element of progress.
Finding cheap substitutes for aviation fuel is more challenging, but todays article on this website shows even that is getting closer.
And regardless of the climate issue, oil and coal is not a sustainable resource. British Petroleum calculates we only have 50 years supplies left, at current rates of use, not allowing for population growth. Global coal reserves are estimated at 150 years.There may be more, but when an oil company starts saying these things it is significant and theres probably not much more left.
Instead of burning oil and coal, we should conserve whats left for plastics, fertiliser perhaps, and essential and critical uses.
I have long been a futurist sort of enthusiast, and read books like limits to growth and future shock when a young teenager over 30 years ago.
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One Planet Only Forever at 16:11 PM on 9 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
NorrisM@19,
Any perceived achievement that is not truly Sustainable is not a Real achievement, it is just a perception, an illusion, a delusion.
Achiving all of the Sustainable Development Goals is what is required, even if a portion of humanity who temporarily unsustainably won by over-developing in the wrong direction loses their undeserved perceptions of superiority and prosperity when the corrections to sustainably benefit the future of humanity are rapidly implemented as required to minimize the harm done to the future of humanity.
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NorrisM at 15:40 PM on 9 March 2018Stop blaming ‘both sides’ for America’s climate failures
nigelj
On another post I indicated that I lugged Steven Pinker's Enlightenment Now down to Mexico instead of the Saposky book. So it was interesting to see Steven Pinker referenced in the Guardian article. Other than waiting for one final "instalment" on sea level rise from another website before I reply to michael sweet, the other reason for my lack of participation on this website has been reading Pinker's book which is very, very uplifting. I have not yet reached his discussion of climate change but when I read his descriptions of what we have achieved as a human race over the last 250 years since the beginning of the Enlightenment, I am very interested to see how he will prescribe a solution to our issues presented by AGW which does not "throw the baby out with the bath water" to use an expression I have used on other posts on this website. I highly recommend the book. Much easier read than Karl Popper.
Although I did not get it from this source, this book confirms my reference earlier that in the last 200 years we have reversed the 90/10 ratio when it comes to what percentage of the world now lives in extreme poverty. He does not specifically reference cheap energy as one of the main reasons but his positive description of the industrial revolution leaves no doubt that he understands that much of our progress has been because of cheap energy delivered by fossil fuels.
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DrivingBy at 13:58 PM on 9 March 2018There Will Be Consequences
Letseee heere.
2m of SLR could well put a brake on world population, due to the disruptions involved. There's vast capacity to produce more food, but give the choice, humans will usually create conflict over resources rather than optimizing them. If some event breaks out which humanity is rather prone to, such as a worldwide holy war which fragments into competing holy wars, the result could be a population decline of {pick a number} %. If that number is 75 or greater, problem solved.
If not, the population will continue to increase until it eventually leads to more intense, more destructive wars. Then, problem solved.
Earth will be just fine. Humanity will continue to multiply, but perhaps for a while by a factor of less than one.
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nigelj at 12:40 PM on 9 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Alchemyst @40
Thank's for the link on Britains weather trends.
Firstly with respect its really hard understanding your points at times. Possibly english is your second language.
Secondly I want to clear one issue up. You said the article I quoted was misleading. In hindsight, the title of the article "Arctic warming more than much of europe is a worrying sign of climate change" is not a great title, and is unclear. However that is typical of the media, as they use clickbait deceptive, silly headlines all the time.
More importantly, the body of the article was more nuanced and not misleading to me, because they said that the warming arctic was almost certainly a climate change process, and that this "could" be causing the cold weather in Europe. Please note they acknowledged it is simply a hypothesis, and we don't have enough time data yet on recent changes in the Jet stream and arctic oscillation to be sure. But personally I think its a good hypothesis.
Thirdly regarding your link on Britains cold weather history. I dont dispute its possible that if anything cold snaps like the one in the early 1960's have lessened over the last century. This is what is expected overall in a warming climate of course. Your linked article is however hard to follow and I'm just assuming its correct in its data.
Its also entirely possible that sunspots have a relationship to winter weather.
None of this is the real point. The phemomena in the arctic over the last decade appears to be a great deal of warming and changes to the jet stream and the behaviour of the polar vortex that is all quite recent. This may be now causing a new trend of colder weather periods to start in Europe, so is a recent thing. That was my understanding of the article. Clearly we need years more of data to be sure. It might not cause more cold periods either, and instead the effect may simply be longer ones that linger.
But one thing is for sure. The rate of warming in the arctic is very high any way you look at it, and we have seen a few individual years now with very high seasonal temps, and the consequences could be disastrous for the planet.
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Alchemyst at 11:57 AM on 9 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Moderator thank you for your comment
The graph indicates cold weather arriving in Britain, not jetsteram events.
The tile says "Central England Winter mean temperature 1660- 2013"
It says nothing of jetsreams so why do you imagine jetstreams.
Now what it does say is that the knock on from polar warming that is supposedly happening according to the molelers is not happening to the any extent as it did before global warming happened.
This is what I have been saying all along but somehow you and the bloggers do not seem to have understood it.
Ah well horses to water is what I sayModerator Response:[PS] I "imagine jet streams", because that is the topic of this article, the topic the paper referenced and the substance of nigelj newspaper article. As I keep suggesting, you seem to be tilting at another windmill. Similarly, modellers are not much involved. The variability of jetstream is directly observed in recent times and inferred from proxies in past. What modellers do is look at why jet stream variability appears to be increasing. If you do not want to discuss jet stream variability, then you are offtopic.
Sorry, I think I will make a longer comment to explain my lengthy moderation. It seems to me that if someone made the claim "We are having some extreme weather, and this is a sign of climate change", then your comments would make more sense. But that is not what is claimed. Instead, what has been observed is that jetstream "loopiness" has become more frequent, and incidentally, that brings some kinds of extreme weather (but it is not the only cause). Is this unusual and how do you tell when jetstreams havent been observed for that long? Well someone figured out how to extend the record by using paired tree ring data, and yes, it turns out to be unusual. Modellers meanwhile notice arctic changes give more loopiness in the models. Is this the cause? Well that bit is still uncertain science but what we observe is consistant with it. Discovering that unusual to have loopiness over a 300 year record is reason for concern.
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Alchemyst at 07:12 AM on 9 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Nigelj 7:22 am 2 march 2011
"The article I referenced took no liberties with the data. Climate scientists have apparently postulated that the current cold weather in Europe is related to current high arctic temperatures and jet stream changes thats all. Its quite a good theory. Are you saying they are not entitled to postulate a theory? Remember we have empirical evidence that the jet stream has changed.
Nobody has claimed all storms in Europe are being caused by recent climate change. The recent warming trend in the artic is probably just making them more frequent or longer lasting, as the changed jet stream lets more cold air move south than normal. This may also have happened in the 1940s and 1960's, but its pretty obvious that higher temperatures in recent decades can only make it happen more frequently now."Nigel, please read page 2 of the refhttps://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/abstracts/Mar/16032013-burt.pdf
In it there is a red graph that shows the 1962 incedent in context with historical events of which there were many at about 12 year intervals. It also shows that there has been no further similar events in the UK since 1963 date. the graph also show a slight hockey stick. Compared with the pre 1963 events, the 2011 event hardly registered in the graph.
The argument has not been that the arctic is getting warmer but that this is affecting western europe. The graph shows clearly that the so called more frequent events are not materialising. this is not computer modelling papers but real measurements. This is not surprising since as the arctic is warming, there is less difference in the temperature between the arctic and europe.
Please read the document fully as it predates all this new stuff by 4 years, we have seen documentaries about it
If you notice a set of headlines is given in another paper on this topic 7 march
https://www.skepticalscience.com/explainer-polar-vortex-beast-from-east.html
None of the British Papers did the same mistake of DW and linking the Beast from the East to Climate Change, because all of the Brits know that these storms were worse and more frequent before climate change. they have either lived through them or had their grandad/dad tell them and every so often theBBC will have a documentory.
We have empirical evidence that since global warming these storms are less frequent and milder.
Moderator Response:[PS]" The graph shows clearly that the so called more frequent events are not materialising"
It does no such thing. You cant make any statement about jetstream variability from one set of temperature measurement.
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nigelj at 05:18 AM on 9 March 2018What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought?
Argus @38
You claim theres been a steady increase in Antarctic sea ice. Your reference is to old data. The following national geographic article shows antarctic sea ice at record lows in 2017.
news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/02/antarctica-sea-ice-hits-record-low-global-warming/
Global temperatures and sea level rise have been incresing for decades, we have seen more heatwaves and heavy rainfall events and so on. The arctic has been warming now for decades, and its not guesswork or belief to suggest this has implications for regional weather.
Scientists have a good explanation for the changes in agw climate change with over 12,000 scientific papers on the issue, but you prefer to claim all this science is just a 'belief'. Do you not know the difference between a belief and massive scientific evidence?
Moderator Response:[PS] please put any further discussion of Antarctica on an appropriate thread.
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william5331 at 05:12 AM on 9 March 2018Explainer: The polar vortex, climate change and the ‘Beast from the East’
I have a different take on the situation or rather a different way of thinking about it. When most of the Arctic is ice covered, as has been often stated, most of the solar energy is reflected back into space. The air over the arctic radiates heat into space, becomes heavy and sinks. As it hits the ground it spreads south and coriolis veers the moving air to the right resulting in the Polar Easterlies (moving toward the SW). Air, sucked in to the poles at high altitude is also veered to the right resulting in the mentioned counter clockwise circulation at high altitude. The air moving along the ground rises again at about 60 degrees north and heads back north at high altitude, completing the circulation of the Polar Hadley cell. Jet streams occur at the junction between Hadley cells and the northern jet stream occurs at the top of this rising wall of air between the Polar Hadley cell and the Ferrel Cell. It is this wall of rising air that separates polar air from temperate air and shepherds wether systems around the world.
As the Arctic Ocean warms due to more and more open water, we should see episodes of rising air over the Arctic. This should occur when the surrounding land is colder than the ocean. This will suck surface air northward and with Coriolis, will result in SW winds (flowing toward the North East). This will suck warm air into the Arctic. The climate zones which at present are creeping northward at about a mile per year can be expected to lurch northward. Two results, particularly are of concern. One is the disruption of our delicately poised grain growing belts in the Northern hemisphere. The other is the melting of Greenland. Latent heat from water to water vapor is roughly 6 times as large as from water to ice. If we have a coupling of rising moist air over the Arctic with density currents over Greenland, every liter of water that condenses on to the ice from this moist air can melt 6 liters of ice. Add to that the heating of the air as it flows down as much as 3km of slope and we could see some spectacular melting of Greenland in the not too distant future.
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