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Aaron Davis at 06:51 AM on 25 December 2017CO2 limits won't cool the planet
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/08/sensible-questions-on-climate-sensitivity/https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-mars.htmPhilippe,
Thank you for your patience. I believe you and I are both serious about finding a solution to achieving a stable climate in time to make a difference.
First a comment on the super computer models: I do not have access to an array of super computers and all the configurations of climate models out there. However, I can see from Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity calculations that the variations in results are higher than the effect that it intends to discern. As the variability fails to converge with increasing trials this suggests they are not efficient estimators and may be being pushed in resolution far beyond their capacity. It is comforting that the Swinbank model has been confirmed, but for broad conclusions Swinbank may be as accurate as we need. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity.
The last 15 years shows the total annual accumulated energy of about 12.5 ZJ/year and accelerating, (mostly in the oceans and cryosphere, not the atmosphere). This is about 20x the human consumption of energy (nearly all from fossil fuels). It appears this factor of 5% factor could be stable. Therefore, before arguing about CO2 why don't Climate Scientists first try to factor-in the heat loading caused by heating from human's non-renewable energy consumption. As non-renewable human energy consumption is mostly from fossil fuels it would correlate well with CO2 accumulation. However, looking to CO2 first may be confounding the conclusion that CO2 as a principle source.
We know that nuclear energy is associated with harmful thermal pollution. So the notion that simply switching to non GHG nuclear would fix global warming is as preposterous as the notion that CO2 is big knob it's made out to be.
Can we agree therefore that to achieve thermal control while humans continue to add to the heat load we could improve nighttime radiant cooling?
You don't need an array of super computers to be convinced that only decreasing the downward flux of nighttime insulting layers, (clouds, humidity, and sea ice) will radiate enough energy to space to stabilize the climate. The near absolute zero temperature of space should be sufficient to stabilize earth's climate regardless of what happens with the sun, or the currents or CO2 concentrations. Recall that the shady regions of the poles on Mars maintains solid water ice.
If we agree with this, then perhaps we can move on to implementing a solution.
To be honest, I understand your mocking tone, Alfred Wegner's ideas about plate tectonics were mocked by fellow geologist for 45 years (from 1915 to 1960) before finally being accepted. Unfortunately, we don't have that much time to solve the global warming problem. I contend that CO2 is an unnecessary distraction and opens the community up to unnecessary charges of bias and ulterior motivations.
Here is additional information on the partial pressure of CO2 on Mars that supports the premise that reducing CO2 concentrations is irrelevant to achieving global thermal control:
The 4% of gases that are not CO2 include 1.9% argon, 1.9% nitrogen, and traces of oxygen, carbon monoxide, water, and methane. The partial pressure of CO2 on Mars is about 6 millibars, which corresponds to 6,000 ppm were it all transported to Earth.
Thinking about Mars: 3. Air | LinkedIn
http://www.answers.com/.../What_is_the_partial_pressure...Moderator Response:[TD] You wrote "Therefore, before arguing about CO2 why don't Climate Scientists first try to factor-in the heat loading caused by heating from human's non-renewable energy consumption." That has been done. Waste heat is insignificant compared to heating from greenhouse gas increases. Please read the post devoted to that topic, and put further comments on that topic there, not here.
You wrote "only decreasing the downward flux of nighttime insulting layers, (clouds, humidity, and sea ice) will radiate enough energy to space to stabilize the climate." All insulating layers operate not just at night but during the day. There is no special leverage from reducing insulation at night rather than in day. Greenhouse gases are part of that insulation, and human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are forcings. Humidity (water vapor) is a feedback not a forcing. Likewise clouds. Sea ice, too.
Please read the post about Mars.
There are plenty of opportunities for you to learn about climate sensitivity. Here is one on SkepticalScience. And Then There's Physics has a recent post that links to others you should read for background. RealClimate has a similarly useful recent post.
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nigelj at 06:22 AM on 25 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #51
Merry christmas to skepticalscience.com.
Regarding the hilarious Santa cartoon, lots of people probably say god created coal, so it must be ok to use coal. But maybe they take the wrong message. The bible also has clauses that require us to look after the environment, and think for ourselves as follows:
www.patheos.com/blogs/christiancrier/2015/06/23/top-7-bible-verses-about-taking-care-of-the-earth/
Does anyone actually read Breitbart? It looks like demented, one sided conspiracy theory piffle to me.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:40 AM on 25 December 2017How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Alchemyst, you're getting this backward. S.C.'s "pedigree" was misrepresented in the first place by pseudo-skeptics, who then used the misrepresentation as the basis of an argument from authority. Although that argument is a logical fallacy in its own right, it was also useful to examine the claim on the pedigree itself, which, as it turns out, is not all that impressive. Nonetheless, arguments from authority are still wrong. If Niels Bohr had started ranting nonsense, he would have been called on it, regardless of his previous achievements. Said achievements did not contitute a 100% guarantee on anything coming afterwards.
S.C. does not have a large body of orginal research work on polar bears. That does not invalidate by itself any claim she would make, but certainly withdraws from her being presented as an authority. I don't see anyone here "attacking" her pedigree. That's kind of impossible to do anyway. That's like attacking the sky. Her pedigree, the sum of her publications and contributions, is really a matter of public record; it is what it is. What contributors have done was to attack the idea that said pedigree granted her status as such an authoritative figure that what she said should be regarded with more respect than what any/all others say, and constitute the end all/be all on the subject. It was shown that there was no factual basis for it, and it is a logical fallacy.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:09 AM on 25 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
I fail to see how government subsidies that support sustenable energy are ridiculous. The subisidies going to fossil fuel industries seem to me much more deserving of such adjective, considering that these industries have been established for over 100 years and been able to generate gigantic net profits in a very consistent way. I have no doubt that Westinghouse presents their products in a very favorable way. They do have a pretty serious incentive to do so, as they do in these products finding a market. If I was to buy every product presented in a favorable way by its maker, I would have gone bankrupt at age 18.
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Eclectic at 14:38 PM on 24 December 2017How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Alchemyst @2 , please note that there is no meaningful comparison between the ordinariness of Susan Crockford and the outstandingness of Neils Bohr. It is a logical non-sequitur to suggest that Bohr's brilliance somehow adds lustre to Crockford. Nor is she a Galileo !!
Please look at the faulty/unscientific nature of her assertions — assertions which are also strongly outlier to the views held by the generality of polar bear experts.
Although the white polar bears are specialized in diet and are of fairly recent evolutionary divergence from the "colored" bears, yet they managed to survive through the recent (Eemian) interglacial period — a period which was distinctly warmer than the present Holocene interglacial. How so? It seems that the Arctic region during the Eemian had disproportionately cooler temperatures, owing to "a reduced intensity of Atlantic Ocean heat transfer to the Arctic" [ Bauch et al., 2012 ]
The big picture presently is that: (A) despite wishful thinking, we have a very incomplete idea of polar bear numbers & population dynamics,
... and (B) the polar bears [as mega-fauna carnivores with a highly-specialized diet/lifestyle ] are facing almost 100% loss of their habitat during the next century or two. Crockford as well as anyone, should know that habitat loss is the biggest threat to endangered species. Yet she still makes soothing noises to the denialists.
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nigelj at 08:35 AM on 24 December 2017How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
Alchemyst @2
"Could we have an article regarding the polar bear counts etc"
As you can see from this study some populations of polar bears are currently declining, and a couple are increasing, and for many we don't have good data. The decline of polar bears is associated with climate change, particularly due to declining food resources like declining seal populations.
Projections are that all populations of polar bears will eventually decline.
"The deniers seem to point out that during other times the bears survived through warmer times with less snow"
The bears survived through warm temperatures after the end of the last ice age. We are heading to much higher temperatures, and less sea ice than this, by 2100.
Susan Crockford hasn't published any science on polar bears related to climate change, and very little research on any aspect of polar bears. Perhaps you should bear that in mind when you read research and opinion. Who has more basic credibility, the expert or non expert?
Of course people like Crockford might be onto something, but given she is a non expert I suggest look at every single thing she says carefully and double check it against what the research and what others are saying. Check her source dara carefully, to see if its reliable and properly relevent and not cherry picked. Her various claims do not stand up to even the most superficial scrutiny IMO.
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Dugga12 at 07:32 AM on 24 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Okay, I give up, and will unsubscribe myself from commenting on articles of interest to me, but I will continue to read them. I am no climate change denier, rather I readily accept that AGW is real and the issue needs to be addressed urgently. I am after all a grandfather concerned for the future of my grandchildren and the world in which they live.
I have installed pv panels on my roof, and because of ridiculous government subsidies, courtesy of the poor taxpayer, I no longer pay an electricity bill. I am indeed fortunate that I have the financial resources to have been able to pay for the capital cost of my system, but there are many others unable to do so. In the end, everything comes down to money, whether mine or the taxpayers.
I am no economic or financial genius, so I have to rely on experts for my advice. I have taken an interest in the arguments over cost of renewables, but have come to rely on recent reports put out by Lazard, with their two most recent ones - Levelised Cost of Energy LCOE 11 and Levelised cost of storage LCOS 3 - which attempt to strip out the cost of energy and storage sources without any subsidies.
The latest opinion from Lazard is -
“Although alternative energy is increasingly cost-competitive and storage technology holds great promise, alternative energy systems alone will not be capable of meeting the base-load generation needs of a developed economy for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the optimal solution for many regions of the world is to use complementary conventional and alternative energy resources in a diversified generation fleet.”
If some conventional energy sources contribute to global warming and other conventional sources contribute less, surely the latter sources ought to receive more consideration in providing base-load generation. Comparisons between conventional sources then come down to costings, which the Lazard papers provide.
I try to keep an open mind on most issues, which does become somewhat harder at 75 years of age. However, I’ve always kept in mind a little piece of advice given to me by the high school inspector, after I had attended a workshop given by an older science teacher colleague on grinding lenses for telescopes. I was obviously over enthusiastic about getting students involved in this project, when the inspector drily remarked “Remember, the only difference between a groove and a grave is one of depth”. In other words, read widely, and keep up to date, which was advice I passed on to my students.
For those who might want to find out what the latest development in nuclear power generation might include, consult the Westinghouse web site for the eVinci mini generator.
Over and out, goodbye and good luck.
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Alchemyst at 07:26 AM on 24 December 2017How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
I am interested in whether polar bears are declining. This is an opinion poll and not scientific fact. Could we have an article regarding the polar bear counts etc and the relative merits of the various arguments? At the moment I seem to be inclined to think that polar bears will always need ice, but how much do they actually need? The deniers seem to point out that during other times the bears survived through warmer times with less snow. Could we have a comparisom of the data?
The dig at Susan C again was not merited. Someone coming in fresh to a subject does not invalidate their work. I seem to recall reading in his biography thatNiels Bohr moved from Cambridge as his ideas were not well recieved by Thomson and moved to Manchester, that was at the time regarded as an upstart university and became part of a group that made history.
Criticise her work and results but not her pedegree.
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chriskoz at 06:50 AM on 24 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
Everyone's obviously ignored the irrelevant, alternative reality troll bozzza@14 above. I suggest mods to enforce comments policy and delete the troll (and this message) in their passing. Thanks.
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sgbotsford at 06:36 AM on 24 December 2017It's not bad
Additional reference:
http://biodiversityandclimate.abmi.ca/
This is a mixed group of scientists trying to figure out the impact of climate change on Alberta. As part of this, they have constructured sets of maps corresponding to cool, medium and hot scenarios and have plotted changes in rainfall (not much different), temperature (scary difference, and ecozone shifts (really scarry difference) for the 2050's and 2080's. Note that each of these maps you can choose between the cool, medium and hot scenarios. The third link is with the hot scenario shows southern Alberta's desert regions (much like central Montana or Wyoming) will in places be up to the northern border.
I live an hour from Edmonton, pretty much in the center of the province. We're looking at a 6 C temperature rise in the next 70 years.
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sgbotsford at 06:15 AM on 24 December 2017A Rough Guide to the Jet Stream: what it is, how it works and how it is responding to enhanced Arctic warming
I have followed this discussion with some interest.
My thanks to the author for the fine overview. After I re-read it a few more times I may start to understand it. At present I understand each chunk separately, but trying to see it all together still escapes me. Keep it up.
My thanks also to the moderator for valiant efforts to minimimize the throwing of brickbats, and keep discussion on a civil plane.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:47 AM on 24 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Dugga12,
Fundamentally, nuclear power would not pass a 'Sustainable Development' evaluation (refer to the Sustainable Development Goals for details). The Affordable and Clean Energy Goals require renewable/sustainable energy generation and nuclear generaton consumes non-renewable resources and produces wastes that are not currently able to be safely completely neutralized.
A related problem of nuclear power is potential for the related production of nuclear weapons, something that is clearly contrary to a Sustainable future for humanity.
Those evaluations must be the first screening of what is acceptable. Then there can be economic comparisons of the options that have been 'determined to be Susainable Development'.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:34 AM on 24 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
nigelj@1,
In addition to assisting all poorer populations develop improved ways of living, it is important that the help to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is maximized. Thta would include maximizing the development of local business and industrty to produce, install, and maintain any new facilities.
And you are correct about the fatal flaw of pushing 'major infrastructure' like centralized large power generation facilities and the required high capacity distribution networks.
Decentralized power generation with low capacity interconnection as back-up to provide any short-term regional power assistance is likely to be a more sustainable way to assist the poorer people in Africa (and many other regions - even well developed areas).
The desire of major multi-national corporations to 'profit from building major infrastructure' needs to be pushed aside no matter how much more 'profitable for the nation providing the supposed assistance' it is to have a corporation the 'assisting nation benefits from benefit from 'supposedly providing development assistance'. In many cases that push to build major infrastructure with loans from entities like the IMF and World Bank has put many nations into financial slavery, being controlled by external pressure to do what external pursuers of Private Interests that are contrary to Sustainable Development want done (including imposing austerity measures to reduce funding for education, health care and other assistance to the less fortunate that is essential to Sustainable Development).
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bozzza at 19:44 PM on 23 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
“Lost in the weeds” is a great saying because it perfectly explain the irrationality of groups.
Education is one thing,.. but individuals undertake such concepts- not random groups of voting consumers!
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citizenschallenge at 13:09 PM on 23 December 2017It's cosmic rays
https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/cosmic-ray-theory-of-global-warming-gets-cold-response
Danish theorist’s latest paper overstates the effects of solar activity in climate change, critics say.
Tim Wallace reports.__________________
https://gizmodo.com/no-supernovae-arent-changing-earths-climate-1821439511
No, Supernovae Aren’t Changing Earth’s Climate
Ryan F. Mandelbaum_________________
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/12/22/galactic-cosmic-rays/
Galactic cosmic rays
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nigelj at 12:14 PM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
The nuclear power idea looks dead and buried.
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RedBaron at 09:29 AM on 23 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
@37
Exactly. In one respect it doesn't even matter who or what eats them. Excepting people do need to eat and farmers do need to sell food to make a living themselves. But ruminants are part of a artificial agricultural biome that when functioning fully can sequester 5-20 tonnes CO2/ha/yr + or more. It also restores the functionality of the water cycle replenishing critically desertified areas. It also is a net sink for methane.
Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho
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michael sweet at 09:16 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
igel,
Your 5000 nuclear power plants would only be able to generate the electricity used, not all the heat and industrial power. You need 15,000 running nuclear plants to generate total world energy. Even then you would only generate the average power, not the peak power. You would need storage for peak power (just like with wind and solar). You would expect a major accident every month.
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nigelj at 08:43 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
If nuclear power was a great option, generating companies would build more plant. But they aren't, so that tells us something.
There are 449 nuclear power stations globally, according to the nuclear energy institute. This provides 11% of global nuclear energy production.
So crudely calculated we would need something like another 5000 nuclear power plants spread all around the world, over the next 50 years. This does not appear easy, given slow building and regulatory approval process and high capital costs. Such large numbers of reactors also puts pressure on prices of reserves of uranium. The risk factor from accidents would certainly become very 'significant'.
Nuclear power only makes sense to me if its the cheapest option in a few countries with limited other alternatives.
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Eclectic at 08:31 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Dugga @2 , the Nuclear industry is dying. Like a critically-endangered species, its growth rate is tapering off toward zero. The number of planned new plants is small — plans are being cancelled or put on indefinite hold. Nuclear (fission) cannot meet world electricity demand in a timely manner — the commissioning/build timing is decades too long. The cost blow-outs too huge.
Already about half of the USA nuclear plants are not profitable. Not profitable, Dugga — and that situation will worsen as wind/solar grows cheaper by the year.
Dugga, you simply haven't noticed that nuclear (fission) generation has been extensively discussed on SkepticalScience threads. Dugga, your advocacy comes 25 years too late. "Nuclear" is a very bad choice — it is simply not economic; it is too slow to build (to counter the global warming) ; and it is not "distributive" enough for impoverished nations.
And there is another concern. Would you like to see many Third World [in its usual pejorative meaning] nations like Zimbabwe, Angola and Chad — in possession of breeder reactors? And who will pay for these massively costly reactor plants? We are already having enough difficulty getting First World nations to donate the small sums required for solar panel installations in Africa !
Dugga, your advocacy is hopeless, in the face of reality.
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michael sweet at 08:29 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Dugga12,
There are a certain number of nuclear proponets that post at SkS. I have asked at least four of them to write a post supporting nuclear power Not one of them has felt that it was worth the effort to write something in support of nuclear power. Perhaps you can write such a post. If you provide links to peer reviewed literature it is likely to be put on the site. I await your subission. (If you only link industry propaganda it is much less likely that your article will be posted).
Most energy researchers do not consider nuclear any more. Jacobson (summary powerpoint) concluded that the very long build cycle for nuclear plants meant that more CO2 was emitted while the plants were under construction than if wind and solar were used. Abbott 2011 lists 15 reasons why it would be impossible to build enough nuclear power to generate a sigificant (>10%) amount of power using nuclear power.
There are currently about 2 nuclear power plants under construction in the USA, they are 5 years behind schedule (for a 3 year schedule), billions over budget and look most likely to be cancelled. 2 other plants were cancelled last year after billions were wasted. I know of two plants under construction in Europe, Both are enormously over budget and years behind schedule. Westinghouse, the primary builder in the USA, has declared bankruptcy and might take all of Toshiba with it. Nuclear is not economic.
You will have to address these primary issues in your article:
- Nuclear plants take so long to build that it will be too late by the time they are done
- They are too expensive and not economic.
- There are not enough rare elements like hafnium and berrilium to build out nuclear plants.
- There is not enough uranium.
- To power the entire world we would need nuclear plants in Syria, North Korea and Iran. That is generally considered unsafe.
If you send in an article I will bring up the remaining dozen items on Abbotts list.
The people at SkS are volunteers. If you do not think it is worth writing in support of nuclear why should they?
Good luck with your article. I look forward to reading it.
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chriskoz at 08:13 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Dugga12@2,
Please pay attention to your words. In last paragraph, you called those who accept climate science or renewable energy "climate change supporters". That is very misleading, even insulting term, against those who try to teach the truth about AGW and the urgent need of AGW mitigation. Any honest person in your shoes would issue an appology here. You sould have used a term "climate science supporter" if you have science teachers in mind or "climate action supporters" if you have activists in mind.
Sorry for my nitpick, if your error is, as I hope a genuine typo and not deliberate repeat of a misleading, insulting term. This term was coined by AGW deniers who not only don't understand science but also don't care about the meaning of their words.
As for the issue you raise, a lack of interest about nuclear energy on SkS, the reason for it is that that form of energy is in decline and more expensive than solar thermal or PV or wind, and even more expensive than gas, when all cost of setup, production and decommissioning taken into account. Numerous articles have been written on nuke economics and why it is on decline. Others may point the sources. If you have sources that point out otherwise (e.g. what your "levelised costs" means) plaese elaborate. Better if you do it on the appropriate thread, if mod points to you. Otherwise, your talk is an empty hand waiving.
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Digby Scorgie at 08:10 AM on 23 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
RedBaron @ 32
Do I understand correctly? Properly farmed beef cattle result in an increased ability of the land to sequester carbon. Such farming can therefore be considered a method for sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. The fact that people can eat the meat is almost incidental.
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Digby Scorgie at 07:54 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
Dugga12 @2
I don't think anyone disputes that nuclear power is carbon-free — if you discount the mining, transportation and processing of its fuel — but it takes a helluva long time to plan and build a nuclear power station. By the time you have enough new stations up and running we have to be at zero carbon anyway. What do we do in the interim? We might as well just go full bore for solar and wind power. I've also seen indications that the latter is becoming comparable in cost to nuclear power.
I would argue that if you have a nuclear power station, keep it going, but for any replacements for fossil plants, go for solar and wind.
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Dugga12 at 06:55 AM on 23 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!
Let us assume that AGW is accepted as a universal truth on the worldwide stage. Action then has to be taken to slow down, or even stop, the rate of CO2 production. Clearly with the significant impact of fossil fuel burning now accepted, surely we must turn attention to alternative forms of electricity generation. The sceptical science team seems to have its focus firmly fixed on wind and solar electricity generation systems, but little evidence is presented on the most obvious source of non-carbon generation, namely nuclear generation.
Why is this? Is there an ideological bias against even mentioning the word “nuclear”? Or is the discussion of nuclear power versus wind and/or solar power too embedded in economic arguments to be of limited interest to those commentators who are scientifically trained and inclined?
If the same level of scientific analytical rigour in climate change research was brought to bear on economic analysis of alternative energy versus nuclear energy generation, there might be surprising results emerge that confound the conventional “wisdom” that alternative green forms of energy are cheaper than nuclear power, when levelised costs of ‘firm’ energy, LCOFE, are taken into account. In the same way that climate change science points to a complex of factors that have to be considered, so perhaps it might be the case that full consideration has to be given to non-carbon energy generation.
Unless and until climate change supporters start to open up the discussion on alternative non-carbon energy sources, we will never find the answers to creating long term, sustainable, economical, reliable and non-polluting power generation.
Moderator Response:[PS] Can you support your implied assertion that "climate change supporters" are unreasonably opposed to nuclear power? Sks has struggled to find someone that discuss the peer-reviewed literature on nuclear power alternatives in the past. This is however a specialist topic over at Bravenewclimate and perhaps is better discussed there.
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nigelj at 06:25 AM on 23 December 2017How blogs convey and distort scientific information about polar bears and Arctic sea ice
The climate denialism pie charts are very one sided or extreme, because if they admit any uncertainty in their own views, the whole denialist edifice collapses. The deniaist edifice can only survive if it takes an extreme position of conceding nothing, because it cannot withstand open discussion and application of logic.
The denialists also fail to look below the surface in terms of data. For example, the denialists claim numbers of polar bears are growing. However this is only in some areas, and is due to less hunting, etc. In areas where numbers of polar bears are falling, research has highlighted specific causative factors lined to climate change, so this is a better indication of what future trends are likely to look like for the arctic as a whole. So the denialists fail to look at the complete picture.
Anyway the denialists claim polar bears and seals will "adapt". They might adapt to some level of shrinking sea ice, but it will certainly reach a tipping point where it becomes much more difficult to adapt.
Someone said on some denialaist blog polar bears will just eat other foods like birds eggs. I doubt a few eggs will provide much nutrition, and other predators will be very well adapted to targeting those birds eggs. Yet the denialists seem immune to such obvious things.
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nigelj at 05:35 AM on 23 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
OPOF @35, beef cattle grazing (and sheep) done in the free range way does appear to have very considerable potential in encouraging deep carbon rich soils, and this makes it very significant for climate change as a carbon sink. The last IPCC report stated this.
However IMO there are problems with devoting truly huge areas to cattle farming. Its unlikely to feed a population of 5 - 10 billion because its inefficient, and build up of carbon rich soils is a very slow process that cannot stop dangerous climate change process over the next 20 - 50 years, only renewable energy etc can do this. Soils can only mop up excess carbon on multiple century time scales.
So I can't see a case for devoting truly vast areas of the planet to cattle farming, unless we fail to stop dangerous climate change and are in deep trouble as a result. I can see a case for keeping reasonable areas of cattle grazing, and farming them better.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:12 AM on 23 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
RedBaron,
The research I am aware of regarding meat consumption and health may change with new research into the changes that come about from corrections of unsustainable developed practices. I understand the health problem of the quicker cheaper and therefore more profitable way beef is fed just before being slaughtered, combined with the riskier quicker work done by cheaper workers in the slaugherhouse that often occurs (all because of the power of pursuit of profit to over-rule doing things more responsibly, less harmfully, less risk of a harmful consequence).
I am open to changing my mind based on any new learning that is consistent with, and supports, the acheivement of all of the Sustsinable Development Goals. Right now, my understanding is that reduction of Beef production, along with corrections of the way it is done, are required (as well as changes/reductions to other meat production/harvesting).
I also see no evidence that Beef production for meat consumption is a superior way to deliver food for humans. So there would need to be some pretty amazing changes regarding Beef from permaculture to make it a Winner from the perspective of efficiency of delivery of human nutrition.
However, I also do not see any harm in a responsibly limited amount of beef production. All things that 'are not harmful in moderation' are OK.
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Tom Dayton at 01:17 AM on 23 December 2017It's cosmic rays
To his credit, Watts in his WTFUWT post about Svensmark's "new" claims solicited Leif Svalgaard's opinion. Here is what Watts posted as the reply from Svalgaard:
"TSI over a solar cycle causes a variation of 0.05-0.10 degrees C. If GCRs as per Svensmark has 5-7 times the effect of TSI, that would translate to a temperature variation of 0.35-0.50 C over a cycle, which is simply not observed, hence the paper can be dismissed out of hand." -
chriskoz at 16:42 PM on 22 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
David@12,
Maybe JohnBoy@10 would better grasp the meaning of the graph 3b if he had got the δ13C unit used in the graph explained. Perhaps I'm jumping ahead here because you promissed to explain the δ13C measurement process in the next part, but JohnBoy's question warrants such jump.
As a typical isotopic measure, δ13C is a measure or enrichment of 13C in a C sample, compared to the standard sample. A standard 13C/12C, as you mentioned above, is about 1%, or more precisely 0.0112372 as explained by Wiki.
Looking in that wiki link, the isotopic enrichment of 13C is defined as (13C/12C - STD) / STD, where STD is the standard value of ~1% above. From that simple formula, you can see that standard's δ13C value is 0 (not enriched nor depleted) as expected.
The value on the graph 3b changes (in per mil) from -7.6 (in 1980s) to -8.1 (in 200s). Which means δ13C in atmospheric CO2 is always depleted (negative) compared to hte standard. But it is becoming more depleted, in accordance with the teachings of the article. So there is no error in the red scale of the graph, it is intuitively correct.
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nigelj at 11:13 AM on 22 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
Red Baron @32, in reality the best we are likely to see is to stop a huge global increase in beef production. If people eat less beef, remember population is still going to be increasing for some time, so the numbers of beef cattle might freeze, but are unlikely to drop sharply. So there will still be plenty of beef cattle. Relax.
I eat a mixture of beef, chicken, and fish. Moderation in all things. Sounds 'trite' but it makea lot of sense as Im sure you would realise. I have learned the lesson from bitter experience.
There's no doubt in my mind permaculture has multiple benefits and should be promoted. Good luck with your cause.
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nigelj at 11:03 AM on 22 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
Digby @31, I'm not so sure. Get a few 'celebrities' like Kim Kardashian going vegetarian, or even just low meat consumption, and eventually the whole younger generation will follow like lemmings.
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RedBaron at 10:56 AM on 22 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
And the point most of you are missing is that if the method changes to where the raising of beef (and other animals) is beneficial to the land instead of destructive, and they regenerate and increase resources rather than deplenish them, then everything you guys are saying about reducing beef production has the opposite effect there. Less production means less land gets healed, less water to replenish criticle aquafers and springs rivers etc..., less wildlife, less AGW mitigation. All because you blame the cow and not the manager of the cow...us humans. It is denialism every bit as much as AGW denialism.
As for health effects, same there too, but that is off topic. Just suffice to say that management of the cow has everything to do with ALL the negative impacts.
There is no down side to changing how we do agriculture to regenerative carbon farming...especially beef. No other technique for sequestering massive quantities of stable carbon deep in the soil profile at rates high enough to reverse AGW even comes close.
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Digby Scorgie at 09:49 AM on 22 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
OPOF @30
Yes, so the conclusion is clear:
(1) Eating much less beef is very good for your health — and doing so reduces the demand for beef cattle, which reduces the impact on the planet.
(2) Farming beef cattle properly reduces the impact on the planet even further.
(3) It won't happen. Sigh!
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:21 AM on 22 December 2017It's cosmic rays
First thing I noticed on the link: a "LIA" period that is now considered to have lasted from 1300 to 1900 AD. That's going to impair those medival warm periods that fell right in the middle of it...
Seems it's just more recycling of the same stuff but hard to tell from the sciencedaily because that's not the paper itself. More digging in order. AFAIK, CERN has not rescinded their take on their experimental results, which weren't very supportive of the hypothesis.
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David Kirtley at 06:58 AM on 22 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
Johnboy, the values for the red scale are negative. So normally on a graph like this they would look like:
0
-1
-2
-3
...
But on this graph the red scale is reversed to show that increasing emissions of CO2 track along with the change in the 13C/12C ratio:
-3
-2
-1
0
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citizenschallenge at 06:51 AM on 22 December 2017It's cosmic rays
He's baackk,
H. Svensmark, M. B. Enghoff, N. J. Shaviv, J. Svensmark. Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei. Nature Communications, 2017; 8 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02082-2
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/12/171219091320.htm
December 19, 2017
Source:
Technical University of Denmark
Summary:
The study reveals how atmospheric ions, produced by the energetic cosmic rays raining down through the atmosphere, helps the growth and formation of cloud condensation nuclei — the seeds necessary for forming clouds in the atmosphere.Henrik Svensmark confidently broadcasts and hundreds of astroturfers are busy spreading the word: "Finally we have the last piece of the puzzle explaining how particles from space affect climate on Earth. It gives an understanding of how changes caused by Solar activity or by super nova activity can change climate." says Henrik Svensmark, from DTU Space at the Technical University of Denmark, lead author of the study. Co-authors are senior researcher Martin Bødker Enghoff (DTU Space), Professor Nir Shaviv (Hebrew University of Jerusalem), and Jacob Svensmark, (University of Copenhagen).
===========================
Links to serious critiques of this paper and ther authors claims would be appreciated.
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Alchemyst at 06:45 AM on 22 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
The comments by chrizkoz ring a familar bell. I used to work for a multinational european company. I was asked to present a talk to one of the continental partners. In order to distinguish the subtle difference between tally and count an illustrated joke suggested by my supervisor was used. This was followed later on by another joke and a red herring both to illustrate points. I passing the slides to my supervisor he then deleted the second joke stating that one was enough any further attempt at humour would not go down well. OK so it was deleted. It then came to the continental manager to check out the talk who was emphatic that the red herring be omitted as it could mislead. My reply was that it was to illustrate a point, he agreed but it had to go out since I had used up my limit of hunour stating that he understood us and was not offeneded and my bahaviour was perfectly acceptable in my country but not in his.
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nigelj at 06:12 AM on 22 December 2017Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power
One of the greatest challenges Africa has is a lack of energy infrastructure, because without electricity nothing much else can progress. Yet they have considerable solar potential.
Local decentralised solar power in small instillations can do much to help families and business, even if it just helps power medical equipment in isolated regions, or provide some light at night with a few batteries added obviously. The potential is huge, and its sad a region with great sunlight hours, does not have more solar power. Decentralised systems may be of more practical viability than large expensive centralised supply.
The economist.com did a great article recently on energy needs and solar power in Africa, here.
Africa has jumped ahead with mobile phones helping greatly with business. Solar power will help in a similar way, without needing massive investment like a hydro power station, or large cental solar array and expensive lines network.
IMO one of the best favours the western world could do is targeted assistance with solar panels in Africa and other poor countries. It will help their people as a compassionate gesture, and ultimately help them contribute better to the global economy, and we all benefit from this.
However such aid should be arranged to ensure its spent on solar power, and not going into leaders pockets or military spending. It needs monitoring and some conditions.
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nigelj at 05:02 AM on 22 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
NorrisM @9, ha ha, yes no doubt the Paris meetings include some of Mao's talk and spin. But at least Paris 1) has the right general idea and 2) has at least some definite projects and commitments to show for things. Things have to start somewhere. They always start slow and talky, but eventually things firm up and lead to more solid action.
Enlightened people actually do know what needs to be done in terms of international assistance to poor countries. It's a case of getting voters on board, and making them see the wider benefits more fully. One thing that would help is international auditing mechanisms that ensure money is well spent, and if specific countries are unwilling to have some accountability like this, they will risk not getting assistance. We should hep countries and substantially, but we are entitled to expect some things in return.
America is going in fast reverse on many things, and in the end may find itself isolated. Trump threatens punative actions against nations who disagree with Americas agenda on various things. He should pause and remember the world is bigger than America, and nations might decide they have had enough, and may take punative actions against America. I would of course not like to see things end up like that, but it is looking inevitable.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:53 AM on 22 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
NorrisM,
Another way of expressing the point:
Any nation that fails to have responsible leaders (in business or politics) loses the priviledge of sovereignty. So it is up to the population of a nation/region to ensure that all of its Winners/Leaders are responsible considerate pursuers of the corrections and types of new things that are consistent with and supportive of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
Any region or nation that fails to keep damaging Private Interests from Winning will require external guidance/correction. And that external action will be diplomatic to the extent that is practical. with targetted financial penalties and International Criminal Procedings as required to achieve what the future of humanity requires to be achieved.
How the USA system processes the " vs. " case will be an indication of how deserving the USA system is of sovereignty. Developing a sustainable better future for all of humanity is quickly becoming the "Global Golden Rule". Sub-sest of humanity (Regions and Tribes) that fail to adapt to or accept that improved understanding will suffer consequences.
History is loaded with examples of unacceptable pursuers of Private Interest Winning for a while even though they are understandably creating harm, but ultimately suffering failure - the learning is that understandably harmful people, 'trouble-makers', need to be 'addressed' quicker and more aggressively - though never with a Death Penalty).
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:49 AM on 22 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
NorrisM,
The global collective action against other 'trouble-makers is targetted financial penalty and International Criminal Court.
If the Trouble-makers regarding climate change do not change their ways it is ikely that the International community of responsible leaders will have 'no choice' but to implement targetted financial sanctions on the Trouble-makers and step things up to trying the worst offenders for Cries against the future of humanity.
It would be great if everyone could be expected to responsibly and considerately limit/control teir behaviour and help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. And that requirement should be increased for the wealthier or more influential people.
But realistically there will always be some who deliberately try to benefit from behaving in understandably unaccepable ways. So the financial sanctons and criminal proceedings against the worst climate change offenders (irresponsible wealthy ones and elected representatives) will likely occur in the future. And the basis for doing that is well established, and being improved/strengthened with each new international meeting regarding the Sustainable Development Goals (not just climate change).
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:30 AM on 22 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
Digby and Nigel,
I have learned similar things in reviewing published research regarding protein and meat consumption.
Though there are a variety of results because investigating complex interactions is, well, Complex, my take-away understanding regarding Beef consumption, open to new results from more robust research, are:
- Do not eat more than 4 oz (100 g) of beef (or any other meat), in a meal. The human body is unlikely to extract any benefit from a larger consumption in a meal.
- Only eat beef a few times a week. There are health risks to eating too much red meat. You should diversify the other parts of your diet in a way that ensures you are getting adequate nutrition like iron - Without taking pills.
- Severely limit consumption of processed beef such as sausage or corned-beef. This category of meat products seems to aggravate the health risks of eating beef. Probably wise to minimize consumption of any processed meats (like ham). And what humans 'think is appetizing' needs to change to maximize the consumption of every edible nutrient providing part of animals grown for consumption in ways that are 'healthy'.
- Definitely pay more for a good cut of beef to BBQ. Since you are only eating 100 g, the expensive stuff is not that expensive. And keep the BBQ temperature low and slow cook the meat. It will be more tender and will have less of the harmful mutated protiens that are created by high-heat cooking.
Everyone following the first two pieces of advice would dramatically reduce the amount of beef (or other meat) that 'needs' to be produced.
And following the 3rd piece of advice could reduce the energy intensity of the meat that is consumed. And reduced energy consumption is an important aspect of achieving the required climate action as well as many of the other Sustainable Develoment Goals.
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Johnboy at 01:58 AM on 22 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
Am I missing something? The red scale on the lower plot is not reversed.
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NorrisM at 00:41 AM on 22 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
nigel @8
Nigel, this reminds me of a quote from Mao Tse Sung (sp) when he was developing his nuclear capabilities and other nations were trying to discourage him in various ways but could not agree on how to do so. Mao's quote was: "Talk, talk, talk, spin, spin, spin!"
I am sure this quote could be adapted to nations coming together to actually commit funds to other countries regarding assisting them to advance climate change agendas.
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nigelj at 18:13 PM on 21 December 2017Research shows that certain facts can still change conservatives’ minds
OPOF @16, actually you raise a couple of good points there. Almost didn't notice anyone had added a comment to this page, glad I did.
The ox parable is of course pretty old now and more a parable of the pasasitical finance industry that exists mainly to serve itself. I liked the punch line at the end, where the ox died, in reference to the "real economy" being neglected among all the financial betting, wheeling and dealing.
The melamine scare implicated a company in my country, but it was a subsidiary of their's in China that operated largely independently. The NZ company has a good safety record on the whole, and was immediately cleared of blame. But it just amazes me how anyone could actually put such poison in baby formula, just at a moral level. Even if one is desperate for money for some reason, how could they do that? Of course it was partly due to slack oversight and so on.
The republican view in America is almost libertarian: Corporates should be allowed to do precisely anything they like with no consequences, but we will grudgingly accept they can be sued in civil court, but no more than that. They don't want any imposed state regulations, standards, fines, and inspections and so on, and see this as the work of the devil.
The trouble with civil court is only the lawyers win, and the small guys can't afford to take court action. Only huge problems that can bring class actions makes the courts. And even then, out of court settlements dominate, that mean valuable knowledge on what caused the problem is never made public, so nobody learns anything.
Sometimes cases make criminal court. Now of course sometimes thats sometimes 100% appropriate for serious situations, but if you threaten companies with such dire consequences for general routine safety breaches it can backfire and make them too cautious.
And I have noticed that governments and courts in NZ are very reluctant to even bring any criminal charges, even in serious cases, so people walk free. We have had two disasters, a mining tragedy and building collapse, and no charges were bought against anyone, much to the publics disgust, even although there was a good case against specific individuals, however the law is now being changed to make it easier to hold people and companies to account.
In some cases its better to have simple codes of practice, an inspection system, and fines / penalties, and for serious breaches a method of firing the negligent people involved. Fines are often not enough alone, because such costs can be passed onto the customer. Firing people hurts, especially if its made public with some humiliation.
The bottom line is safety and environmental breaches and negligence must have immediate punative consequnces of some sort. I agree the public should not be paying, ever. Responsibility has to be sheeted home to companies and individuals, of course proportionately to the problem we don't want to destroy people over minor things. But I'm tired of seeing a lack of accountability.
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nigelj at 15:49 PM on 21 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
Ger, Norris asked for a list of projects and some idea of funding. The link I pointed to does just this. Maybe its not perfect in the exact format that would keep Norris happy, well he is an intelligent guy and can use google to track things down.
He is also a lawyer, and I'm used to reading many documents by many lawyers, and they are mostly incomprehensible and often don't answer my questions, and are never in a form that suits me, or any normal human being, and lawyers charge a fortune. So I have no symapthy if Norris has trouble with the above article!
You also make many claims of fact about those projects that are not immediately apparent to me in the summaries.
But thank's for the link to the OECD study. I agree totally the funds allocated are well below what is required. Window dressing is too harsh, but yes so much more could be done, and has to be done. Most of the latest research evidence reported on websites like this shows an ever growing problem with the climate. But what is needed is some ideas on how to do more, not complaining.
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Ger at 14:49 PM on 21 December 2017One Planet Summit: Finance Commitments Fire-Up Higher Momentum for Paris Climate Change Agreement
Nigelj@6, what I see in that list of 25 descriptions of projects are 25 different views on projects formely known as Official Development Assistance projects. Funded by budget allocation guarantees, fully paid for by the recipients over a 20,30,40 years.
The equity of such projects is mainy paid for in kind (equipment like trains, busses, generator sets and 'Technical Assistance' in the form of consultancy on design and organisation executed/paid for from the same equity budget) often not reaching 10% of the total budget.
All costs are retrieved from local and service (maintenance, adaption, managment fees) activities which guarantees the salaries and part prices of the foreign assistance.
None of the projects specify a particular climate goal those one to reach. Sure lines have been added to show a lower CO2 eq emissions as before the project.
https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/what-you-need-to-know-about-climate-finance-ahead-of-the-one-planet-summit/ mentions that a 6.3 trillion is needed, yearly till 2030. Committed is 100 billion from 2020 onwards( not yet there): 15% and not sure it is there. The list of finance mentioned a lot of asset value of several companies but those do not even add up to the required 100 billion. Let alone that bonds on those assets do reach 10 billion. Divesting in oil & gas & coal is not 'new' money ready for investment.
So I agree that One Planet Summit is not more than window dressing, Business As Usual in a new coat. So much more could be done.
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chriskoz at 13:31 PM on 21 December 2017From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 1: The Basics
I always read scientific articles literaly. And that includes SkS. This incident of a colloquialism being misunderstood underscores the need of using precise language when talking to a large, especially international audience as is the case here.
I work for a company doing scietific research for a large Japanese company. For obvious reasons, any idioms/jokes/colloquial terms (Australian, American, British or otherwise) are forbidden in communication with our cutomer. Simple grammar and usage of words in their basic meaning only are strongly encouraged. Even with such cautionary principles, the meaning of your discourse can be lost in translation. Of course these rules are relaxed when we socialise with a sip ok sake, and we can tell jokes by then. Our Japanese collegues usually don't understand our jokes but are happy to learn them as is appropriate during partytime.
But during scietific reporting or education time (as is the case here), I learned to be very strict in such environment, hence my comment @1,
Thanks for teaching me a new idiom involving the word "weed". Like many idioms, it just does not make sense at face value. Although I acknowledge its existence, I will never use it, because it's simply silly to me, as it would probably be in any formal context to every bush or forrest regenerator.
But let's move on, because the mistake of using a silly idiom in this article can be disregarded: it does not affect the informational value of the article. And said value is excellent: clear at the intended level of understanding and accurate to the best of my knowledge, nothing to add. Lots of people will benefit from that information, so thanks David for writing it.
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nigelj at 13:15 PM on 21 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
Digby Scorgie, sorry I got the numbers a bit wrong. The article says "That’s why the Department of Health advises people who eat more than 90 grams (cooked weight) of red and processed meat a day to cut down to 70 grams, which is the average daily consumption in the UK."
I'm assuming of course NZ is similar. And your consumption is still looking low.
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