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Tom13 at 07:05 AM on 7 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
#2 & #3
The daily fluctuations in temps, the seasonal fluctuations in temps, the annual fluctuations in temps dwarf the amount of temp change due to global warming, which has been in the range of .5c over the last 50 or so years. Surprising how much time and effort is spent and wasted blaming something that has an extremely small probability of the cause of the decline of the bees.
Attempts to blame global warming is similar to the attempts to blame GW on the demise of the costa rica toads.
(environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/41895
Moderator Response:[DB] Please cease providing examples of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Just because, in your specific example, that AGW was likely ruled out as the explicit cause of the demise of the species in question does not preclude AGW being a causal agent in the demise of other species. Per your link:
"this does not mean that current and future global warming will not be involved in extinction. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will without a doubt contribute to stress on ecological communities that could lead to the extinction of species"
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nigelj at 05:28 AM on 7 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
Tom13 @1
"Seasonal and annual variations in temps greatly exceed anything climate change has produced in the last 100-150 years, yet somehow climate change is blamed."
You have missinterpreted the whole issue.The bee study is not looking at just one season or year. The study says long term "interannual" changes in temperatures and bee populations over several years so clearly this relates to climate change.
"In the meantime a much more scientific and reasoned study of the bumble bee decline"
You have missinterpreted the studies. That study you quote looks at impacts of pesticides on bees. The interranual bumble bee abundance research looks at subalpine species of bees, ie on high up slopes of mountains where not many pesticides would be used.
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Ari Jokimäki at 04:17 AM on 7 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
Here in Finland seasonal and annual variations in temperature are very large, and yet, during my lifetime climate has changed so much that it is very easy to see. Winters are mild and snowless and spring starts earlier compared to the time when I was young. Climate change is now so clear that you can see it even without thermometers.
The study in question seems scientific enough and well reasoned to me. They don't just "blame" climate change. Also, the fact that climate can affect bumble bee abundances doesn't mean that pesticides can't have an effect, too.
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Tom13 at 02:31 AM on 7 October 2017New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017
From the research article #35 listed above :
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12854/abstract
Seasonal and annual variations in temps greatly exceed anything climate change has produced in the last 100-150 years, yet somehow climate change is blamed.
In the meantime a much more scientific and reasoned study of the bumble bee decline,
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MA Rodger at 20:31 PM on 6 October 2017Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years
citizenschallenge @89.
Having now read Lightfoot & Mamer (2017), I can report that it is total nonsense. It is not the first nonsense from these authors which include Lightfoot (2010) 'Nomenclature, Radiative Forcing and Temperature Projections in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (AR4)' [ABRTRACT] and Lightfoot & Mamer (2014) 'Calculation of Atmospheric Radiative Forcing (Warming Effect) of Carbon Dioxide at Any Concentration ' [PDF], this last setting out much of the argument now presented in Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) (although strangely this ealrier work is unmentioned in the later). Yet the bold and revolutionary assertions on AGW within this earlier work have not set the world alight since publication, a telling result. Instead it has gone un-noticed into the oblivion of nonsense-filled literature.
And Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) will follow. It says nothing other than there is on average for any location and month much more H2O at the bottom of the atmsphere than there is CO2, and that the hotter the location/month the greater the disparity. They also arrive at the astounding finding that it is hotter in the tropics and in summer months than it is in the polar regions and winter. Further, they identify a general correlation (which they fail to actually calculate) between temperature and the angle of the sun up in the sky. (I recall noting in prevoius days that the sun is not static in the sky but appears to vary in angle through the day. Thinks - would this Lightfoot&Mamer correlation still hold for time-of-day?).
Lightfoot&Mamer fail to comprehend the concept Radiative Forcing (RF). They would greatly benefit from a quick read of UN IPCC AR5 Chapter 8 section 8.1 (which they do not cite in their paper) or a proper read of UN IPCC TAR Chapter 6 (which they do cite but somehow fail to understand). Not the least of this ignorance is their use of surface back-radiation as though it were RF when by definition RF concerns the imbalance at the tropopause (with adjustment for stratospheric influences) and has nothing to do with surface back-radiation.
"The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere system due to the perturbation in or the introduction of an agent (say, a change in greenhouse gas concentrations) is the change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus long-wave; in Wm-2) at the tropopause AFTER allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropo-spheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values." UN IPCC TAR (2001) Section 6.1.1
Their fraught calculations of the H2O/CO2 ratio do not apply to the tropopause. Their discussion concerns the properties of back-radiation which result from surface air temperature (SAT) but they rather overlook the physical mechanisms that maintain the SAT which are all to do with the atmosphere above, all the way up to the tropopause.
Whichever way you cut it, Lightfoot&Mamer(2017) is a rich vein of total nonsense.
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NorrisM at 18:29 PM on 6 October 2017Factcheck: Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming
Very interesting. Will read more carefully later. But I have to admit that even for a layman, when I read the paper this discrepancy of 2015 and 2020 stood out like a sore thumb.
In the paper it says average increase per decade has been close to. 2C so on this basis you could assume this really is .2C rather than .3C.
But there have to be reasons why 23 scientists chose HadCRUT over another measurement. They must have thought it was the most representative.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:15 AM on 6 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM: "As soon as we move from a carbon tax that only charges for costs of pollution to one that charges for everything else..."
You have previously made that point, and you have claimed that the costs of pollution are only $18/tonne (unless I am misunderstanding you). I have challenged that $18/tonne figure, and until you can back it up with a reference that is more than just your "understanding", then please stop making that argument. Repeating an unfounded assertion does not make it true.
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scaddenp at 09:20 AM on 6 October 2017Arctic sea ice has recovered
See here for discussion of this. In particular, check the MASIE documentation page and what it has to say about the applicability of the data sets for analyzing trends. Then look at some datasets that are fit for purpose and draw the obvious conclusions about reliability of climatedepot.
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nigelj at 07:29 AM on 6 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Aleks @12
Just briefly the sort of volcanic eruptions we typically see decade to decade dont emit enough CO2 and other greenhouse gases to make much difference as below from an article on this website:
"Published reviews (on volcanoes) of the scientific literature by Mörner and Etiope (2002) and Kerrick (2001) report a range of emission of 65 to 319 million tonnes of CO2 per year. "
The burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use results in the emission into the atmosphere of approximately 34 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year worldwide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm
They do emit enough aerosols to cool the climate dor a year or two.
Some massive volcanic explosions like Krakatoa have emitted enough CO2 to get really significant, but they are infrequent. In fact theres evidence that a massive and frequent series of volcanic eruptions millions of years ago in Asia caused a period of global warming, but the modern world is very unlikely to experince something like that, because geological conditions are now very different.
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nigelj at 07:09 AM on 6 October 2017Factcheck: Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming
Lets just admit the Millar paper just doesn't make much sense. There, I said what nobody really wants to say.
Very clear graphs. Obviously temperatures are tracking models quite well. It wont ever be 100% perfect due to short term natural variability, but they are doing well enough longer term. Any climate sceptic now claiming models are failed is being deliberately obtuse.
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sailingfree at 06:47 AM on 6 October 2017Arctic sea ice has recovered
Can anyone comment on this:
http://www.climatedepot.com/?mc_cid=b0364d923e&mc_eid=1bbdb183a9
Based on MASIE data, they claim not much decline recently.
Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice
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aleks at 06:22 AM on 6 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
During all volcano eruptions so called greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, SO2,etc.) are emitted in great amounts. May be, any supporter of the greenhouse effect theory can explain why all eruptions caused cooling of the Earth's climate. The effect of sulfuric acid aerosols and other solid particles (volcanic ash, soot) is, of course, important, but why we don't see the vidence of greenhouse effect in this case? As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to comments policy. Thank You!
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nigelj at 05:30 AM on 6 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Noris M @60
"There is an accelerated deduction compared to how depletion is charged under usual accounting rules."
Thanks, but the fine detail is not the point here Norris. Canada get a whole lot of other sunsidies as well totalling billions. America gets 20 billion of subsidies through tax deductions on exploration etc and direct grants. Countries in latin america and asia get billions in subsidies by artificially keeping the price down.
Countries get more obviously if you include the unpaid cost of emissions. You can call it a subsidy or something else but that doesnt change the nature of the beast.
The point is its billions of dollars in subsidies no matter how you measure it. With the possible exception of a deducation for research and exploration, they are all economic distortions and crony capitalism. But if we are trying to reduce fossil fuel use no subsidy on fossil fuels makes sense because they just encourage the industry. In some cases they are the only thing keeping it profitable. How is that not socialism for corporates?
How can some of you people so miss the point so consistently?
Carbon taxes aren't out of bounds given the article is about a form of carbon tax. I think you would look at the full costs of fossil fuels on society including health costs and climate change costs and say that tax, or "fee" would need to reflect that and be increased in stages.
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flehner at 03:21 AM on 6 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Thanks for the comments and feedback.
Indeed, with "global temperature" we mean "global surface air temperature" throughout the article, which refers to an estimate of the air temperature 2 meters (~6.5 ft) above ground. Also, we should have clarified that we mean Northern Hemisphere/boreal winter.
@DrivingBy: you might be thinking about the Yale climate opinion maps: http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/
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John Hartz at 03:15 AM on 6 October 2017They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
citizenschallenge: Generally speaking, we ought to stick with the IPPC/WMO's official definitions of global warming and climate change as embedded in this site's Glossary of Terms.
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MA Rodger at 01:56 AM on 6 October 2017Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years
citizenschallenge @89,
I haven't read it yet, but the full Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) paper is available here. It's findings as you set them out @89 appear highly implausable but I'm sure a read of the full paper will inform us all a lot better.
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citizenschallenge at 01:41 AM on 6 October 2017They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
Yes I know that's what the article was trying to explain, sorry I got caught up in some of the comments and an ongoing argument that drove me to this post in the first place.
Daniel ;-)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carbon-dioxide-and-climate/
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citizenschallenge at 01:36 AM on 6 October 2017They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'
NO, no, no. "CLIMATE CHANGE" is a result. It is not a driver, it is a descriptive word. "GLOBAL WARMING" is the active agent, the driver!
It's muddled language like that, which simply mimics the dog-chasing-tail talking points contrarians are dedicated to injecting into this discussion. It's help created today's hideous and totally unnecessary public confusion.
>>> Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases, slow heat's escape to space, warming Earth's complex climate engine, which in turn drives cascading consequences we call Climate Change. <<<
Moderator Response:[JH] All-caps snipped. The use of all-caps constitutes shouting and is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. To emphaize a word or words, please use bold font.
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citizenschallenge at 00:48 AM on 6 October 2017Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years
Speaking of CO2, any chance of someone serious doing a critical review of:
Lightfoot and Mamer, 2017"Back Radiation versus CO2 as the cause of climate change"
No tricks zone (July 31, 2017) has a glowing write up - comments point out some flaws but it would be good to have someone give it a serious closer look and critique of the tricks applied by Doug Lightfoot in the paper.
(1) Robust scientific evidence shows the sun angle controls water vapour content of the atmosphere, the main component of back radiation, as it cycles annually.
(2) Water vapour content measured as the ratio of the number of water molecules to CO2 molecules varies from 1:1 near the Poles to 97:1 in the Tropics.
(3) The effect of back radiation [water vapour] on Earth’s atmosphere is up to 200 times larger than that of CO2 and works in the opposite direction.
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citizenschallenge at 00:26 AM on 6 October 2017Remembering our dear friend Andy Skuce
Yes, thank you for sharing. It was good to learn a little more about Andy, who's article I alway for interesting and informative, but very sad to hear of his passing. My condolensces go out to his wife and family.
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NorrisM at 00:02 AM on 6 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw et al
Will get cite for IPCC rate when I get back from holiday. There was a range if I recall. All this IDC discussion is the same point I made. There is an accelerated deduction compared to how depletion is charged under usual accounting rules. But many industries in Canada get accelerated deductions for capital expendituresbeyond what would be normal depreciation rates for accounting purposes including wind and solar expenditures.
As soon as we move from a carbon tax that only charges for costs of pollution to one that charges for everything else that could be related to GW then we really are talking about what is the most efficient way to move from FF to some other form of energy. I thought that was out of bounds on this website.
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KingInYellow at 17:28 PM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Direct link to Bethke et al: LINK
Moderator Response:[TD] Replaced link because it was breaking page format.
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wili at 14:32 PM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
"One scenario to think through could thus be a major eruption occurring during a La Niña this coming winter." Should probably be "...coming north hemisphere winter."
And "global temperature" near the beginning of the last paragraph should probably be "global atmospheric temperature" since this is later contrasted with global ocean temperature.
Those interested in the possibility that large volcanic eruptions may be able to actually trigger El Nino conditions might be interested in the physorg article linked here: phys.org/news/2017-10-large-volcanic-eruptions-tropics-trigger.html
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bozzza at 13:08 PM on 5 October 2017Right-wing media could not be more wrong about the 1.5°C carbon budget paper
addendum..
..but now the world is literally out to get all of us at once!
(You don't have to believe me- it's a mass consciousness sort of thing!)
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bozzza at 13:05 PM on 5 October 2017Right-wing media could not be more wrong about the 1.5°C carbon budget paper
Richard, the world is a market place and if it weren't legal to lie then Governments would not be able to garner enough entrepreneurial spirit to build it's military complexes.
Fraud is all part of the back-slapping game: the only way the average punter can win is to unite and change th emarketpalce through demand.... because Governments follow: the people lead.
Think of it this way: the world literally is out to get you!
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nigelj at 13:04 PM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
Driving by @5
"They will do that regardless. A political position does not change based on physical evidence."
This is so true with a lot of people. Political tribalism is strong and people hold beliefs passionately, even when the evidence against is overwhelming, and you also have the pluralistic ignorance effect somebody mentioned. Sigh.
But thats no excuse. People need to work a bit harder at being less "political". I'm one of those swing voters and I just refuse point blank to be too partisan.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 12:08 PM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
' more meat, refrigerators, cars, houses, wives.'
LOL. I'm pretty sure that around half of that 7.5 billion don't want wives, more or otherwise. :-) -
DrivingBy at 11:42 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
@Nigelj - 2
If it's any comfort, the majority of the world already acknowledges AGW. Even US-based oil companies all do so privately, and some publicly (which is against their own interests). The biggest players are the likes of Saudi Aramco and Venezula, which both own the oil and oil production companies. It would be interesting to find their official statments on the matter.
I believe (mmm, can't remember where I saw the figures) that a majority of the US population considers AGW to be real. Most also have other things on their mind, such as why their school will not discipline the two kids who disrupt every class, etc. We may know that it is on track to be a huge problem somewhere in the future, but people don't live somewhere in the future. There are now 7.5 billion humans, and outside of a relative handful they all want more: more meat, refrigerators, cars, houses, wives.
Them's the breaks.
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DrivingBy at 11:27 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
@Nigelj
They will do that regardless. A political position does not change based on physical evidence.
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Mal Adapted at 11:20 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
#38 - The broader point on the fossil fuel subsidies - is that most of what is labeled as subsidies by various advocacy groups, etc are simply not subsidies by any economic definition. Many of the so-called "tax subsidies" are tax deductions for the cost of doing business. Additionally many of the so-called "tax subsidies" are deductions which are allowable to all industries and are not subsidies carved out to benefit the fossil fuel industries.
Huh. Oil Change International, the advocacy site you dismissed, defines 'fossil fuel subsidy' as follows:
A fossil fuel subsidy is any government action that lowers the cost of fossil fuel energy production, raises the price received by energy producers, or lowers the price paid by energy consumers. Essentially, it’s anything that rigs the game in favor of fossil fuels compared to other energy sources.
That seem succinct and even self-evident to me. OTOH, while I'll never claim to be an expert, the energy economics I once studied enroute to an multidisciplinary MS in Environmental Science may give me an advantage. The history of the Seven Sisters was especially edifying.
A) you cited an article from an advocacy website, even individuals without expertise should be able to recognize the bias.
B) The errors are readily apparant to anyone with a basic level of taxation
C) my explanations, coupled with a basic knowledge of accounting, should be sufficient for most individuals to quickly grasp the errors.
With due deference, your errors are readily apparent to anyone who grasps the implications of the Keeling Curve. For you to apprehend them, it will be necessary to acknowledge that some people, conventionally regarded as climate scientists, may know more about this stuff than you do. Failing that, you'll need to become a working climate scientist yourself. While you're putting the time in on that, you can trust that SkS contributors recognize the bias on priceofoil.com. Regardless, the site attempts to document the electoral influence trading, in all its protean guises, that distorts the 'free' market in fossil carbon's favor.
Note, lastly, that priceofoil.com's definition of subsidy does not include the political freedom to privatize the full marginal benefit of the energy in fossil fuels, while socializing the marginal climate-change costs right out our private tailpipes.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:00 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
This is a timely and useful article. If Mt. Agung erupts and there is temporary cooling, the denialista will regard any such explanations as "making up excuses after the fact". The fact that this very same volcano has been studied in the past shows that pre-bunked argument for what it is.
I remember Mt. Agung being discussed in climatology classes back in the 1970s and 1980s, when I was at university. One of the references listed here is from 1978, fer christ's sake.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:54 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM: "Tom13 is discussing the US tax situation regarding subsidies under the US tax code."
That may be what he wants to discuss, but from my perspective he is dodging the discussion on carbon taxes. He's claimed that they are just a wealth transfer, He's now gone "Look! Squirrel!" and started talking about subsidies. You've fallen for it.
...but while we are on the subject of subsidies, the list at the web page given by nijelj@56 does not mention royalty reductions (AFAICT). When I lived in Alberta, one of the favourite government actions to promote oil and gas activity was royalty reduction programs such as this one. To put it simply, the people of Alberta, who own the gas and oil, sell it more cheaply than at regular market rate. As this is run through government, it sounds an awful lot like a subsidy to me. The government isn't feeding money into gas and oil, but it is taking out less than it would normally. Gas and oil are on sale.
In fact, such reduced-rate subsidies are at the heart of the never-ending US-Canada softwood lumber dispute that has reared its head again. One of the frequent US claims is that Canada's low stumpage fees (payments to government for cutting timber on Crown land) constitute a subsidy that the US considers unfair, and the US places tariffs on wood products as an anti-dumping action.
As to your claim of an IPCC carbon cost of only $18/tonne - that seems awfully low to me. This Environment Canada site gives estimated costs of $34/t in 2010 rising to $75/t in 2050 as central estimates, with 95th percentile estimates going from $131/t to $320/t.
..but you used the phrase "...the IPCC ballparks this former cost at ..." [bolding mine]. Why did you use the word "former"? What are you implying? Is this only the cost of damage so far, for what has been emitted so far? Does your estimate ignore the future costs of previously-emitted carbon?
Please provide a source for your $18/t number. Your "understanding" isn't a very strong argument. And what Lomborg says isn't worth an ounce of spit.
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scaddenp at 10:34 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
A respite from warming is good news. Really. However, if emissions continue unabated there will be even more GHG when the aerosols abate and we will rapidly warm again. One can hope that time will be used wisely rather than listening to idiots who are going to deny no matter what.
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Esop at 07:12 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
I had exactly the same thoughts, nigelj.
Just wait.... and the press will lap it up.
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nigelj at 06:57 AM on 5 October 2017Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung
So in other words we could get a combination of a volcanic eruption, and a la nina, thus two or three years of quite low temperatues, and the climate sceptics will start chanting "global warming has stopped" and "liberal scam" and "greenhouse effect falsified" all over again. It's enough to make you weep.
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scaddenp at 06:37 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Michael, yes, and contrary to what Tom13 has stated, it seems that FF get some special support:
"The largest source of support to the oil and gas industry that we quantify in our analysis is the practice of expensing intangible drilling costs (IDCs). Only items with no salvage value can be claimed as IDCs, such as wages, fuel, and repairs, relating to well drilling.
Large capital assets always have a mixture of tangible and intangible investments, and in most other sectors these are all capitalized into the cost basis that is written down over time. In contrast, producers are allowed to deduct from taxable income IDCs associated with investments in domestic oil and gas wells. These costs include a fraction of exploration and capital expenses for a given well up to the installation of a wellhead. Independent oil and gas operators are able to expense all IDCs immediately, while integrated oil companies may expense 70% of IDCs. The remaining 30% of integrated producers’ IDCs still receive special tax treatment, as operators can depreciate IDCs over five years instead of recovering these costs through depletion." -
nigelj at 06:28 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Norris M @53, you claim the only fossil fuel subsidy in Canada is a very small tax deduction on oil and gas exploration. Looks mistaken to me. The following research says Canada have 6 separate subsidies on fossil fuels, totalling about 3 billion dollars per year. Other research has much the same.They itemise each subsidy and its recent information.
www.iisd.org/faq/unpacking-canadas-fossil-fuel-subsidies/
There is nothing speculative and about sea level rise. Models are not speculation. At the very least even if you just project the last 20 years linear trend forwards, you get significant sea level rise, and only a fool believes the rate over the last 20 years would stop or slow. Its only really a question of which model simulation of accelerating sea level rise proves most accurate, but none are looking good for humanity. Its important to also remember small changes to rates of sea level rise add up significantly analogous to compound interest.
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jja at 05:57 AM on 5 October 2017Inside the Experiment: Abrupt Change and Ice Cores
one of the potential kinds of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation patterns could be the observed water vapor and heat transport into the arctic beginning with the December 2015 Event and lasting through the winter of 2016
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nigelj at 05:39 AM on 5 October 2017Inside the Experiment: Abrupt Change and Ice Cores
MA Rodger, thanks for the links. I agree prediction is not the best word.
There still seem to be many unknowns about exactly what caused rapid temperature fluctautions during the ice ages. The article says essentially that one 'possible' cause is due to the extensive land based ice caps melting and in turn affecting temperatures, and of course theres less ice now to trigger the same things. Hopefully then that was the cause. But there are still unknowns about what really caused the abrupt fluctuations, so we cant be entirely sure such things could not occur in our future.
No criticism of anyone intended. The research work that has been done is mindboggling and people should read some of it explained in popular science types of articles.
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michael sweet at 03:02 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
NorrisM,
This New York Times article documents current damage from sea level rise and the decline in sales of real estate threatened by sea level rise. These are not "speculative" damages, they are already realized damages. Since the sea continues to rise, these damages must increase. The issue is how much the damages will increase to. Miami Beach is currently spending hundreds of millions of dollars in a futile attempt to hold back the sea.
Articles speculating on a collapse of real estate values threatened by sea level rise are becoming common. Just the possibility of a collapse is damaging to the economy and costs everyone else money. The fossil fuel industry should pay for the damage they currently cause.
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michael sweet at 02:27 AM on 5 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Here is a link to a free copy of the article Scaddenp refers to at 51. The supplemental information (free) documents how they calculate subsidies to oil production. They do not include environmental damage as a subsidy of the oil industry.
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Dcrickett at 00:43 AM on 5 October 2017Why the 97% climate consensus is important
"Pluralistic Ignorance" is a helpful concept here. The great contribution by Frank Luntz to Denialism's staying power was straight from Gen'l Nathan Bedford Forest's alleged dictum: "Get there fustes' with the mostes'." The part about the credibility of scientists and their concensus is important but fairly obvious.
Thus, propagandize that there is no concensus first, then "everybody" will believe that "everybody else" believes it. "The rest is commentary."
Separately, I love that comic strip linked in #4.
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RickG at 00:21 AM on 5 October 2017Why the 97% climate consensus is important
Scaddenp @4
Absolutely, I agree.
One approach I would like to see taken "full throttle" is to use one of the skeptics own tactics against them, and yes skeptical science does an excellent job of that by showing what is being said and pointing out what is wrong and showing why. However, my suggested approach is to address the sources specifically. Who they are, a list of their deliberate falsehoods and how easy it is to show that such claims are false. And I think those falsehoods in particular should be the ones that accuse scientists and climate organizations of manipulating data. True, there is a lot of confirmation bias performed by the skeptics, but in all honesty, I think the ones that cause the most public doubt are the ones who "deliberately" accuse scientists and organizations (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, etc., of misdeeds, when it is they who are the ones engaged in misdeeds.
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MA Rodger at 19:52 PM on 4 October 2017Inside the Experiment: Abrupt Change and Ice Cores
nigelj @1,
Climate science is not unaware of the potential for abrupt change. Of course, back in the ice-ages there was more ice sat on more bits of land available to inject fresh water into northern oceans. So, even though their cause is not understood, the chances of a Dansgaard–Oeschger event or a Heinrich event happening today is not a serious consideration. Yet there remains the melt-event described in Hansen et al (2016) which would see this coming century's warming replaced by rapid sea level rise and superstorms. Hansen et al acknowledge they are at variance with IPCC ARs, stating:-
"These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions."
Myself, I would say "prediction" is the wrong word to use.
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NorrisM at 18:29 PM on 4 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Bob Loblaw @ 25
Tom13 is discussing the US tax situation regarding subsidies under the US tax code. I am in Canada and can only reference the Canadian situation. In that I am involved in the Canadian oil and gas business, I can certainly say that the only "subsidy" that the oil and gas industry receives is by receiving a "deduction" for exploration and development expenditures which, in accounting terms" is on capital account and not ordinarily deducted from income in calculating same for accounting purposes. But, in accounting, capital ultimately gets deducted from the calculation of income from deductions for depreciation (buildings) and resources (depletion).
So the only "subsidy" is the accelerated deduction received from deducting depletion at a faster rate under the Income Tax Act in Canada through deductions of oil and gas expenditures (CEE, CDE, COGPE). With the exception of dry hole drilling expenditures (CEE), these have to be deducted over a number of years, usually on a 30% per year on a declining balance basis.
Therefore, the only "subsidy" is the difference in the "time value of money" which certainly is not irrelevant. But logically, deducting dry holde expenditures, as and when expended, seems to be the right thing. In Canada, the Trudeau government is gradually whittling down the 100% CEE deductions, but retaining the 30% per year CDE deductions.
As for Bob Loblaw's point, when it comes to a carbon tax on fossil fuels, I think you have to make a distinction between the costs of fossil fuels in harming the environment from a pollution standpoint from those unkown and speculative calculations of rising sea levels etc. My understanding is that the IPCC ballparks this former cost at something around $18 per tonne. Even Bjorn Lomborg agrees with a carbon tax at this level.
Carbon taxes beyond this level are proposed for an entirely different purpose. They are imposed to discourage the use of fossil fuels. Whether this is the proper approach is an entirely different issue. Lomborg and others suggest that it is not.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:15 PM on 4 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Based on my experience as a Professional Engineer with an MBA, I offer the following more specific response to Tom13's Econ 101 'efficiency' promotion.
Professional Engineering 101 is the pursuit and application of constantly improved awareness and understanding to develop new things, governed by Ethics 101 which is to protect the public interests from the potential harm of competitors in Econ 101 and PoliSci 101 (particularly when those competitors try to temporarily be perceived to be the Winners by abusing Marketing 101).
The constraints on Engineering 101 by Ethics 101 include ensuring that only the options that do not impede or harm the achievement of public interests, including all of the interests presented in the Sustainable Development Goals, get to compete in evaluations to determine the 'best option'. An unsustainable or harmful activity would not pass that Ethics 101 screening in Engineering 101 no matter how much cheaper or quicker it was (no matter what the Econ 101 and PoliSci 101 want to believe or what popular support they can develop through the abuse of Marketing 101). And any already developed item/activity that is discovered to be unsustainable or harmful would be taken out of service or repaired.
Econ 101 has to be Ethically externally constrained because it is understood that the competitors and consumers (the players in the game) in Econ/PoliSci/Marketing 101 can be expected to push to get the most competitive advantage they can, including pushing to benefit from behaving as unethically as they think they can get away with.
The global effort to figure out how to develop a lasting constantly improving future for humanity has its origins many decades ago.
- In 1965 the Scientific Advisory Panel to US President L.B. Johnson formally warned about the global warming/climate change impacts of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.
- The 1972 UN Stockholm Conference formalized the global effort to better understand the required restrictions on the results of competition in Econ 101 and PoliSci 101, including restricting CO2 from burning fossil fuels.
- The 1987 UN report "Our Common Future" included the blunt statement that "... We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions".
- The most comprehensive presentation of that pursuit of increased awareness and better understanding is the Sustainable Development Goals established by the UN in 2015.
All of that robustly developed better understanding has still failed to stop the unjustified damaging Winning in the games of Econ/PoliSci/Marketing 101 because of the lack of constraint of those activities by Ethics 101.
The real problem is how far things have been allowed to develop in the wrong direction in many of the supposedly 'most advanced regions of the planet - the perceived Winners'. Further development in the wrong direction only makes the required responsible correction larger and more rapid, understandably perceived to be more of a Loss, but incorrectly perceived that way because 'the starting point for the correction' was an increasingly unsustainable and damaging delusion of prosperity and opportunity.
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scaddenp at 13:30 PM on 4 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
Hmm, just noticed this paper in Nature energy on whether US new oil could survive without subsidies. Definitely considers subsidies that arent specific to FF, but interesting study nonetheless.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:16 AM on 4 October 2017Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races
A fee and dividend plan would indeed be unpopular. And undeniably it alone will not bring about the required rapid termination of excess CO2 creation. But it is undeniably a helpful action.
My MBA training in the 1980s, and life experience as a Professional Engineer, leads me to understand that people trying to be the biggest winners in the competition to benefit from the burning of fossil fuels have developed a massive mistaken perception about burning fossil fuels, incuding the mistaken claims of 'efficiency' based on 'measures of profitability', and including mistaken perceptions of personal prosperity and opportunity.
The future of humanity requires a correction of human activity so thta all of it is truly justifiably sustainable. The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals are undeniably what needs to be achieved for humanity to have a better future.
Fossil fuels are a finite resource that will only get more difficult to decently benefit from. And ultimately it will not be practical for anyone to benefit from the activity.
A new understanding that solidified in the 1960s, and has strengthened since then (with the 2015 SDGs being the latest compilation of the developed awareness and understanding), is that competitions for popularity and profit can be damagingly successfully, being won/misdirected in many ways including through the abuse of deliberately deceptive marketing that exploits triggering anxiety and knowing that many people will 'believe an unjustified claim they emotionally/anxiously respond to' more readily than they will 'accept a better understanding that is contrary to their developed desires/interests'.
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nigelj at 09:18 AM on 4 October 2017Why the 97% climate consensus is important
Scaddenp @4
Agreed. Debates are often won on inflammatory slogans, appeals to emotion, generalisations, cherrypicking,and plain falsehoods, sadly to say, as opposed to facts and reasoned argument. This is particularly the case with talk back radio. Another debating tactic is sophistry.
The frustrating thing is real scientists cannot afford to engage in inflammatory rhetoric or anything that could be interpreted as dishonest, or their jobs could be under threat. And shouldnt anyway of course goes without saying.
In contrast you get certain sceptics who get away with the most incredible falsehoods and inflammatory rhetoric, because they are assured of a job or funding from think tanks lurking in the background. Not naming names or the moderator will have a fit.
Its a most unfair pack of cards, and I dont know the answer, although I think the general public are mostly aware of this, and do make some allowances. Anyway scientists should stick to sound fact based debate I think or it will be chaos. The truth wins in the end.
People do seek out places that confirm their views and yes we are all vulnerable. The internet has amplified this, however I make an effort to look at all sides of debates and find it interesting to explore this.
The internet bubble phenomenon is also now generating fake news, and a real distortion of reality, and the answer is indeed elusive, but I can see most people getting heartily sick of this confusion, nonsense, conspiracy twaddle and and the lack of a solid base of facts, and things may swing back to the centre like the pendulum of a clock. Dont understimate the basic sanity of the silent majority. It can't happen soon enough.
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scaddenp at 08:15 AM on 4 October 2017Why the 97% climate consensus is important
Debates tend to be won by the best debater not the best argument and even if not, you "win" if you make points that appeal to your target audience and can throw doubt on your opponent even if with blatent lies. The problematic bit of our current world is that people choose media sources which give them a reality tailored to their prejudices and a symbiotic relationship sets in which polarizes views. Left and right are equally at fault. Internet makes it worse. I wish I knew the answer. The problem is that reality is not actually a consumer choice and treating it as such bites us.
And I think this comic makes courageously true statements about the problem. Well worth a read.
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