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Comments 17501 to 17550:

  1. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM:

    Thank you for the IPCC cite on the social cost of carbon. I have taken a quick look at that section of that chapter.

    I agree there there is a great deal of uncertainty on such costs, as evidenced by the large range of values ($17/t to $350/t as you accurately quote).

    I disagree that choosing the lower limit is appropriate. That the Krewitt and Schlomann study only gave a lower limit and did not provide a best guess or upper limit is not sufficient reason to use the lower limit as a planning choice. This is akin to taking the IPCC range on temperature sensitivity, choosing the lower bound, and ignoring the high probability that the correct value is considerably larger. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the probability that the lower limit is a serious underestimate. Uncertainty is not your friend.

    The argument behind a carbon tax is to monetize the external costs. Choosing the lower limit means continuing to fail to monetize a portion of the (likely) external costs. Choosing the lower limit increases the likelhood that a large fraction of the external costs will be born by others (non-fossil fuel or reduced-fossil fuel consumers). The fossil fuel sector of the energy business has had a large competitive advantage by virtue of the fact that is has operated in a system that leaves much of the true cost externalized. Choosing the lower limit of such costs fails to level that playing field.

    In comment #53, you used the phrasing

    "...when it comes to a carbon tax on fossil fuels, I think you have to make a distinction between the costs of fossil fuels in harming the environment from a pollution standpoint from those unkown and speculative calculations of rising sea levels etc. ..."

    Characterizing uncertainties as "unkown and speculative" is also something that I strongly disgagree with. You have now used the phrasing "...the real issue is what is included in that estimate. The assumptions matter." Assuming that the lower limit should be used for planning is an extremely optimistic assumption. It may suit the fossil fuel industry, but is unlikely to be the best choice for the overall economy.

  2. 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #40

    The article presents evidence that atlantic hurricane intensity has essentially increased, (paraphrasing) but says scientists arent sure, because the data on intensity of older hurricanes is poor, and numbers of hurricanes in the past were undercounted.

    I dont see why early records of intensity  would be so inaccurate. The devices that measure wind speed, anemometers have been around for well over 100 years.

    If they missed counting numbers of some older hurricanes its likely the ones they did count would have a reasonably representitive intensity level. It appears the scientists are being incredibly cautious maybe excessively so.

    Anyway regardless of these various issues on poor data, I'm very inclined to believe IPCC projections that intensity will increase, because the science on it is so strong. 

    Compare all this to Pacific tropical cyclones. They have increased in intensity and the research appears much more definitive than atlantic hurricanes. Just one example:

    www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/warmer-waters-are-making-pacific-typhoons-stronger-180955443/

    There doesnt appear to be the same doubt about early records for some reason. And they attribute the increase in intensity  more directly to climate change rather than some 30 year ocean cycle, although with some caveats.

  3. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    Wrong. Pseudoscience. Empty assertions. Made up twaddle. 

    Go read a textbook.

    Moderator Response:

    [PS] Over the line as well. A definitive citation is preferred.

  4. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    nigellj@13

    From the cited data is evident  only that all greenhouse gases emitted during volcano eruption (including H2O and SO2) plus annual additional 34 billion tonnes of CO2 can not overcome the cooling effect of volcano aerosols and solid particles. It's impossible to say what factor is more significant because the greenhouse effect theory does not have math model to determine relation between amount of gas absorbing IR-radiattoin and temperature. 

    The absence of such model can be explained. Absorption of infrared radiation by the gas molecule changes the rotational and vibrational energy of the gas molecule, so the the molecule gains more potential energy. However, temperature is related to kinetic energy, that's why it's impossible to calculate the contribution of different gases absorbing IR-radiation to the atmosphere temperature on the base of thie IR-spectra.

  5. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Bob Loblaw @ 62

    I am now back to somewhere where I can reference the material I took along with me to read on my holiday.

    You have asked for a reference for my use of an $18/tonne cost for the direct costs of pollution.

    At www.ipcc.ch/report/srren you will be able to reference the IPCC 2014 Report on Mitigation and Costs which was kindly provided by either you or another contributor to this website. Please refer to Chapter 10 Section 10.6.2 entitled “Review of studies on external costs and benefits”. This section reviews the number of studies that have evaluated the social cost of carbon (SCC). It is very clear from this discussion that there is a great amount of disagreement as to what should and should not be incorporated into arriving at the “SCC” with ranges from $17/t, to $90/t to $350/t.

    Here is what I think is a good summary of things from that section:

    "A German study (Krewitt and Schlomann, 2006) addressing external costs uses the values of USD 17/t CO2 , USD 90/t CO2 and USD 350/t CO2 (€ 14,70 and 280/t CO2 ) for the lower limit, best guess and upper limit for SCC, respectively, referring to Downing et al. (2005) and Watkiss and Downing (2008). The study assesses that the range of the estimated SCC values covers three orders of magnitude, which can be explained by the many different choices possible in modelling and approaches to quantifying the damages. As a benchmark lower limit for global decision making, they give a value of about USD2005 17/t CO2 (£35/t CO2 ). They do not give any best guess or upper limit benchmark value, but recommend that further studies should be done on the basis of long-term climate change mitigation stabilization levels."

    Obviously, my reference to $18/t was off from the $17/t lower limit which I quoted in my post which you criticized. But I did not make this up.

    I know you are not a fan of Lomborg but in his book, he asks an IPCC contributor to the "cost section" (he gives his name) as to what he thinks is his "best guess" as to effective "pollution costs" and I know that figure was below $20/t.

    I suspect that the “lower limit” is in fact a “cost” related to pollution and the upper limit is throwing everything into the calculation including all costs regarding sea level rises. My point was to reference pollution only as a basic starting point.

    You will see that these latter studies (Downing and Watkiss and Downing) only reference a “lower limit” and do not even give a “best guess” or “upper limit” value but recommend further studies should be done.

    So I believe that the use of $18/t for direct pollution costs was a reasonable one to use.

    I see that since my post to which you replied that there have been other figures used. Once again, the real issue is what is included in that estimate. The assumptions matter. Until the IPCC provides any more recent updates, all the rest are just “new studies” not yet commented on by the IPCC.

    I would be happy to use $30/t just to ensure that all these costs are included.  This is something you could "sell to the public" without getting into any issues of what climate change is and is not doing to our world (remember, the US public is not "sold" on what climate scientists are telling them - see Pew Research 2016).  It allows us to put a "cost" on carbon that we can clearly understand which perhaps puts fossil fuels on a level playing field with other technologies.

  6. Remembering our dear friend Andy Skuce

    My only contact with Andy was via online discussions with the Skeptical Science team and valuable comments he made regarding the information visualisations that I was involved with.

    Brings back memories of the fun we had working on the data and the projects we worked on.

  7. One Planet Only Forever at 09:02 AM on 8 October 2017
    2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38

    bozzza@4,

    The current NISDC Arctic Sea Ice News page (October 5, 2017) includes a presentation of multi-year Arctic Sea Ice.

    The 2016 and 2017 extent of ice older than 2 years (sum of 2-3 yr, 3-4, >4) are the lowest in the data record presentation that starts in 1985.

  8. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Ari Jokimäki:

    Here in Finland seasonal and annual variations in temperature are very large, and yet, during my lifetime climate has changed so much that it is very easy to see. Winters are mild and snowless and spring starts earlier compared to the time when I was young. Climate change is now so clear that you can see it even without thermometers.

    Where I live, those seasonal shifts are seen with thermometers and statistics too.

     

  9. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Eclectic @65:

    thank you for PNAS 2016 update (based on 2010 dollars).

    You're welcome, heh 8^}.

    I have to remind myself it's Social Cost of Carbon expressed as dollars per ton of CO2 (not per ton of carbon).

    Thank you! I wouldn't otherwise have noticed the error I made in my first comment. Whew! It gets complicated, doesn't it?

  10. 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40

    Another environmental initiative ruined by The White House. This is appalling scientific ignorance, and an over extended sense of business entitlement above the public good.

  11. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Mal A @64 , thank you for PNAS 2016 update (based on 2010 dollars).

    Presumably the USA figure would be not much different for the rest of the world; but perhaps higher "locally" in some Chinese cities where power generation air pollution rivals the motor vehicle contribution.

    I have to remind myself it's Social Cost of Carbon expressed as dollars per ton of CO2 (not per ton of carbon).

  12. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    I thought I'd explicitly point out that Nordhaus's 2017 peer-reviewed, updated SCC estimate of $31 (2010 dollars, since it's an update) per ton (not tonne) in 2015 was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The link I provided doesn't render well in my browser, but here's a PDF:

    http://www.pnas.org/content/114/7/1518.full.pdf

    It seems clear that nailing SCC down requires a precise vocabulary, whatever else it needs.

  13. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    $18/tonne carbon equivalent is slightly more than half the estimate newly obtained by Nordhaus for Social Cost of Carbon:

    The study estimates that the SCC is $31 per ton of CO2 in 2010 US$ for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3% per year over the period to 2050.

    $31/tonne is roughtly the figure adopted by the EPA after SCOTUS upheld its legal obligation to regulate CO2 as a pollutant.  While I'm having a little trouble navigating government sites, this Nature editorial from last January states "At present, the US government’s central estimate of this is US$36 per tonne of carbon dioxide."

  14. Alarming new study makes today’s climate change more comparable to Earth’s worst mass extinction

    In 1000 years or more the surface of this planet will be too hot to live on.  A remnant of a mutated human species (already happening due to mutagenic chemicals in the environment) will then resort to living in caves, of which there are some very large systems.  They will subsist on GM fungi the size of Saguaro (spelling??) cacti.

    Psychokinesis removes the need for large muscles.  Hence a slim build.  A diet of fungi removes the need for a large mouth and teeth, resulting in an almond shaped face.

    Dim light underground requires very large eyes.  Life in relative darkness results in a typical pallor.

    Development of travel backwards in time via flying saucers results in these descendants appearing in our time in order to collect pre-mutation DNA from cows and people.

    Wishing to warn us of this future they send symbolic messages in the form of crop circles.  Telepathy has by their time removed the need for words and a written language, hence they resort to such symbolic communication.

    We call these people 'E.T.'s.  They are of course 'endoterrestrials'.

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] This venue is based on credible evidence for claims.  Thus, it is about science, not science fiction.  Please keep comments on-topic.

  15. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Tom13:

    Largo Florida is an Island in the Florida Keys.  It is over 200 miles south of Tampa where I live.  It is generally known that it is warmer closer to the equator. 20 years ago it was too cold in Tampa for trees like coconuts and mangos.  It is now common to see these planted in Tampa. If you do not know what you are talking about you should not comment.

    My trees are only 10 years old.  They require about 150 hours of cold in winter to produce fruit.  20 years ago we regularly got 200 hours here but for the last 10 years it has not been cold enough.

    Moose are currently going extinct in Minnesota because the winters have warmed up enough that ticks are no longer killed by winter cold.  The ticks are killing the moose.

    It is common knowledge that pine beetles are killing millions of pine trees across North America because they survive the warmer winters.  They used to be killed by cold.  It is closer to 2C warmer on average in winter now.  That is enough to kill the moose and enable the pine beetles to survive.

  16. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Tom13@7

    "You might find that the .5c change has had zero effect on peach production - after you plant the new trees."

    Pure unsupported, unscientific speculation,  and not really comparable to changes in bee populations. And completely missing the point that if you have a change in some environmental factor, the change will still be there even with a new crop of trees.

  17. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    #6 - the bumble bees range is quite large, as shown for the eastern common bumble bee.  A global temp change of .5c over the last 50 or so years isnt going to make an iota of difference. 

    A Broader knowledge of basic science should help differeniating good studies from speculative.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombus_impatiens

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] That source does not explicitly support your contentions.  Either concede the point or actually support your position with a relevant citation to the primary literature.

    Further, Joe, please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right.  This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.

    Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit off-topic posts, intentionally misleading comments and graphics, operate multiple user identities, continually ignore when their points have been rebutted by others or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
     
    Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion.  If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.

    Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it.  Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.

  18. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    #5 - Michael - Getting you up to speed on basic horticulture.

    A) Here is a picture of coconut palms in Largo FL, from the 1950's - 67 years ago, ( a little more than 20 years ago).

    www.etsy.com/listing/226165236/ca-1950s-palm-garden-restaurant-largo-fl

    B) peach trees have an average  life span of 12-15 years of which only 10years or so are productive.  Try planting some younger peach trees and the new ones will start producing in their 3rd year.  

    You might find that the .5c change has had zero effect on peach production - after you plant the new trees.  

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] That is not a credible scientific source.  Either concede the point or actually support your position with a relevant citation to the primary literature.

  19. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Tom13@4

    "The daily fluctuations in temps, the seasonal fluctuations in temps, the annual fluctuations in temps dwarf the amount of temp change due to global warming,

    It doesnt matter if daily fluctuations in temperature are greater than climate change over the last 50 years. Daily fluctuations in temperatures are of no relevance to changes in temperature over time, and how that affects bee  populations. This should be self evident. This website need a borehole like RC for outrageously stupid posts.

  20. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Tom13:

    You are making a completely wild, unsupported claim that animals (in this case bumblebees) are not affected by the over 1C increase in measured temperatures.  You are arguing from ignorance since you do not understand the ecological effects of an increase in temperatures.

    Please provide a citation of a scientific study that supports your absurd claim that a 1C chage in climate will not affect the abundance and range of animals.

    Where I live in Tampa, Florida, coconuts now grow when just 20 years  ago it was too cold.  Meanwhile, Florida Peaches no  longer produce in my yard because it is too warm for them in the winter.  

  21. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

     #2 & #3 

    The daily fluctuations in temps, the seasonal fluctuations in temps, the annual fluctuations in temps dwarf the amount of temp change due to global warming, which has been in the range of .5c over the last 50 or so years. Surprising how much time and effort is spent and wasted blaming something that has an extremely small probability of the cause of the decline of the bees.

    Attempts to blame global warming is similar to the attempts to blame GW on the demise of the costa rica toads.  

    (environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/41895

    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Please cease providing examples of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.  Just because, in your specific example, that AGW was likely ruled out as the explicit cause of the demise of the species in question does not preclude AGW being a causal agent in the demise of other species.  Per your link:

    "this does not mean that current and future global warming will not be involved in extinction. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will without a doubt contribute to stress on ecological communities that could lead to the extinction of species"

  22. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Tom13 @1

    "Seasonal and annual variations in temps greatly exceed anything climate change has produced in the last 100-150 years, yet somehow climate change is blamed."

    You have missinterpreted the whole issue.The bee study is not looking at just one season or year. The study says long term "interannual" changes in temperatures and bee populations over several years so clearly this relates to climate change.

    "In the meantime a much more scientific and reasoned study of the bumble bee decline"

    You have missinterpreted the studies. That study you quote looks at impacts of pesticides on bees. The interranual bumble bee abundance research looks at subalpine species of bees, ie on high up slopes of mountains where not many pesticides would be used. 

  23. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    Here in Finland seasonal and annual variations in temperature are very large, and yet, during my lifetime climate has changed so much that it is very easy to see. Winters are mild and snowless and spring starts earlier compared to the time when I was young. Climate change is now so clear that you can see it even without thermometers.

    The study in question seems scientific enough and well reasoned to me. They don't just "blame" climate change. Also, the fact that climate can affect bumble bee abundances doesn't mean that pesticides can't have an effect, too.

  24. New research, September 25 - October 1, 2017

    From the research article #35 listed above : 

    onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12854/abstract

    Seasonal and annual variations in temps greatly exceed anything climate change has produced in the last 100-150 years, yet somehow climate change is blamed.

    In the meantime a much more scientific and reasoned study of the bumble bee decline,

    www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0260-1

  25. Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years

    citizenschallenge @89.

    Having now read Lightfoot & Mamer (2017), I can report that it is total nonsense. It is not the first nonsense from these authors which include Lightfoot (2010) 'Nomenclature, Radiative Forcing and Temperature Projections in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (AR4)' [ABRTRACT] and Lightfoot & Mamer (2014) 'Calculation of Atmospheric Radiative Forcing (Warming Effect) of Carbon Dioxide at Any Concentration ' [PDF], this last setting out much of the argument now presented in Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) (although strangely this ealrier work is unmentioned in the later). Yet the bold and revolutionary assertions on AGW within this earlier work have not set the world alight since publication, a telling result. Instead it has gone un-noticed into the oblivion of nonsense-filled literature.

    And Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) will follow. It says nothing other than there is on average for any location and month much more H2O at the bottom of the atmsphere than there is CO2, and that the hotter the location/month the greater the disparity. They also arrive at the astounding finding that it is hotter in the tropics and in summer months than it is in the polar regions and winter. Further, they identify a general correlation (which they fail to actually calculate) between temperature and the angle of the sun up in the sky. (I recall noting in prevoius days that the sun is not static in the sky but appears to vary in angle through the day. Thinks - would this Lightfoot&Mamer correlation still hold for time-of-day?).

    Lightfoot&Mamer fail to comprehend the concept Radiative Forcing (RF). They would greatly benefit from a quick read of UN IPCC AR5 Chapter 8 section 8.1 (which they do not cite in their paper) or a proper read of UN IPCC TAR Chapter 6 (which they do cite but somehow fail to understand). Not the least of this ignorance is their use of surface back-radiation as though it were RF when by definition RF concerns the imbalance at the tropopause (with adjustment for stratospheric influences) and has nothing to do with surface back-radiation.

    "The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere system due to the perturbation in or the introduction of an agent (say, a change in greenhouse gas concentrations) is the change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus long-wave; in Wm-2) at the tropopause AFTER allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropo-spheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values." UN IPCC TAR (2001) Section 6.1.1

    Their fraught calculations of the H2O/CO2 ratio do not apply to the tropopause. Their discussion concerns the properties of back-radiation which result from surface air temperature (SAT) but they rather overlook the physical mechanisms that maintain the SAT which are all to do with the atmosphere above, all the way up to the tropopause.

    Whichever way you cut it, Lightfoot&Mamer(2017) is a rich vein of total nonsense.

  26. Factcheck: Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming

    Very interesting. Will read more carefully later. But I have to admit that even for a layman, when I read the paper this discrepancy of 2015 and 2020 stood out like a sore thumb.

    In the paper it says average increase per decade has been close to. 2C so on this basis you could assume this really is .2C rather than .3C.

    But there have to be reasons why 23 scientists chose HadCRUT over another measurement.  They must have thought it was the most representative.

  27. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    NorrisM: "As soon as we move from a carbon tax that only charges for costs of pollution to one that charges for everything else..."

    You have previously made that point, and you have claimed that the costs of pollution are only $18/tonne (unless I am misunderstanding you). I have challenged that $18/tonne figure, and until you can back it up with a reference that is more than just your "understanding", then please stop making that argument. Repeating an unfounded assertion does not make it true.

  28. Arctic sea ice has recovered

    See here for discussion of this. In particular, check the MASIE documentation page and what it has to say about the applicability of the data sets for analyzing trends. Then look at some datasets that are fit for purpose and draw the obvious conclusions about reliability of climatedepot.

  29. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    Aleks @12

    Just briefly the sort of volcanic eruptions we typically see decade to decade dont emit enough CO2 and other greenhouse gases to make much difference as below from an article on this website:

    "Published reviews (on volcanoes) of the scientific literature by Mörner and Etiope (2002) and Kerrick (2001) report a range of emission of 65 to 319 million tonnes of CO2 per year. "

    The burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use results in the emission into the atmosphere of approximately 34 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year worldwide, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm

    They do emit enough aerosols to cool the climate dor a year or two.

    Some massive volcanic explosions like Krakatoa have emitted enough CO2 to get really significant, but they are infrequent. In fact theres evidence that a massive and frequent series of volcanic eruptions millions of years ago in Asia caused a period of global warming, but the modern world is very unlikely to experince something like that, because geological conditions are now very different.

  30. Factcheck: Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming

    Lets just admit the Millar paper just doesn't make much sense. There, I said what nobody really wants to say.

    Very clear graphs. Obviously temperatures are tracking models quite well. It wont ever be 100% perfect due to short term natural variability, but they are doing well enough longer term. Any climate sceptic now claiming models are failed is being deliberately obtuse.

  31. Arctic sea ice has recovered

    Can anyone comment on this:

    http://www.climatedepot.com/?mc_cid=b0364d923e&mc_eid=1bbdb183a9

    Based on MASIE data, they claim not much decline recently.

    Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice

  32. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    During all volcano eruptions so called greenhouse gases (H2O, CO2, SO2,etc.) are emitted in great amounts. May be, any supporter of the greenhouse effect theory can explain why all eruptions caused cooling of the Earth's climate. The effect of sulfuric acid aerosols and other solid particles (volcanic ash, soot) is, of course, important, but why we don't see the vidence of greenhouse effect in this case? As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to  comments policy. Thank You!

  33. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Noris M @60

    "There is an accelerated deduction compared to how depletion is charged under usual accounting rules."

    Thanks, but the fine detail is not the point here Norris. Canada get a whole lot of other sunsidies as well totalling billions. America gets 20 billion of subsidies through tax deductions on exploration etc and direct grants. Countries in latin america and asia get billions in subsidies by artificially keeping the price down.

    Countries get more obviously if you include the unpaid cost of emissions. You can call it a subsidy or something else but that doesnt change the nature of the beast. 

    The point is its billions of dollars in subsidies no matter how you measure it. With the possible exception of a deducation for research and exploration, they are all economic distortions and crony capitalism. But if we are trying to reduce fossil fuel use no subsidy on fossil fuels makes sense because they just encourage the industry. In some cases they are the only thing keeping it profitable. How is that not socialism for corporates?

    How can some of you people so miss the point so consistently?

    Carbon taxes aren't out of  bounds given the article is about a form of carbon tax. I think you would look at the full costs of fossil fuels on society including health costs and climate change costs and say that tax, or "fee" would need to reflect that and be increased in stages.

  34. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    Thanks for the comments and feedback.

    Indeed, with "global temperature" we mean "global surface air temperature" throughout the article, which refers to an estimate of the air temperature 2 meters (~6.5 ft) above ground. Also, we should have clarified that we mean Northern Hemisphere/boreal winter.

    @DrivingBy: you might be thinking about the Yale climate opinion maps: http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/

  35. They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'

    citizenschallenge: Generally speaking, we ought to stick with the IPPC/WMO's official definitions of global warming and climate change as embedded in this site's Glossary of Terms.

  36. Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years

    citizenschallenge @89,

    I haven't read it yet, but the full Lightfoot & Mamer (2017) paper is available here. It's findings as you set them out @89 appear highly implausable but I'm sure a read of the full paper will inform us all a lot better.

  37. citizenschallenge at 01:41 AM on 6 October 2017
    They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'

    Yes I know that's what the article was trying to explain, sorry I got caught up in some of the comments and an ongoing argument that drove me to this post in the first place.

    Daniel ;-) 

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carbon-dioxide-and-climate/

  38. citizenschallenge at 01:36 AM on 6 October 2017
    They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'

    NO, no, no.  "CLIMATE CHANGE" is a result.  It is not a driver, it is a descriptive word.  "GLOBAL WARMING" is the active agent, the driver!  

    It's muddled language like that, which simply mimics the dog-chasing-tail talking points contrarians are dedicated to injecting into this discussion.  It's help created today's hideous and totally unnecessary public confusion. 

    >>>  Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases, slow heat's escape to space, warming Earth's complex climate engine, which in turn drives cascading consequences we call Climate Change.  <<<

    Moderator Response:

    [JH] All-caps snipped. The use of all-caps constitutes shouting and is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. To emphaize a word or words, please use bold font.

  39. citizenschallenge at 00:48 AM on 6 October 2017
    Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years

    Speaking of CO2, any chance of someone serious doing a critical review of:
    Lightfoot and Mamer, 2017

    "Back Radiation versus CO2 as the cause of climate change"

    No tricks zone (July 31, 2017) has a glowing write up - comments point out some flaws but it would be good to have someone give it a serious closer look and critique of the tricks applied by Doug Lightfoot in the paper.

    (1) Robust scientific evidence shows the sun angle controls water vapour content of the atmosphere, the main component of back radiation, as it cycles annually.

    (2) Water vapour content measured as the ratio of the number of water molecules to CO2 molecules varies from 1:1 near the Poles to 97:1 in the Tropics.

    (3) The effect of back radiation [water vapour] on Earth’s atmosphere is up to 200 times larger than that of CO2 and works in the opposite direction.

  40. citizenschallenge at 00:26 AM on 6 October 2017
    Remembering our dear friend Andy Skuce

    Yes, thank you for sharing.  It was good to learn a little more about Andy, who's article I alway for interesting and informative, but very sad to hear of his passing.  My condolensces go out to his wife and family.

  41. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Bob Loblaw et al

    Will get cite for IPCC rate when I get back from holiday. There was a range if I recall.  All this IDC discussion is the same point I made. There is an accelerated deduction compared to how depletion is charged under usual accounting rules. But many industries in Canada get accelerated deductions for capital expendituresbeyond what would be normal depreciation rates for accounting purposes including wind and solar expenditures. 

    As soon as we move from a carbon tax that only charges for costs of pollution to one that charges for everything else that could be related to GW then we really are talking about what is the most efficient way to move from FF  to some other form of energy.  I thought that was out of bounds on this website.

  42. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    Direct link to Bethke et al: LINK

    Moderator Response:

    [TD] Replaced link because it was breaking page format.

  43. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    "One scenario to think through could thus be a major eruption occurring during a La Niña this coming winter." Should probably be "...coming north hemisphere winter."

    And "global temperature" near the beginning of the last paragraph should probably be "global atmospheric temperature" since this is later contrasted with global ocean temperature.

    Those interested in the possibility that large volcanic eruptions may be able to actually trigger El Nino conditions might be interested in the physorg article linked here: phys.org/news/2017-10-large-volcanic-eruptions-tropics-trigger.html

  44. Right-wing media could not be more wrong about the 1.5°C carbon budget paper

    addendum..

    ..but now the world is literally out to get all of us at once!

    (You don't have to believe me- it's a mass consciousness sort of thing!)

  45. Right-wing media could not be more wrong about the 1.5°C carbon budget paper

    Richard, the world is a market place and if it weren't legal to lie then Governments would not be able to garner enough entrepreneurial spirit to build it's military complexes. 

    Fraud is all part of the back-slapping game: the only way the average punter can win is to unite and change th emarketpalce through demand.... because Governments follow: the people lead.

    Think of it this way: the world literally is out to get you!

  46. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    Driving by @5

    "They will do that regardless. A political position does not change based on physical evidence."

    This is so true with a lot of people. Political tribalism is strong and people hold beliefs passionately, even when the evidence against is overwhelming, and you also have the pluralistic ignorance effect somebody mentioned. Sigh.

    But thats no excuse. People need to work a bit harder at being less "political". I'm one of those swing voters and  I just refuse point blank to be too partisan. 

  47. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    ' more meat, refrigerators, cars, houses, wives.'

    LOL. I'm pretty sure that around half of that 7.5 billion don't want wives, more or otherwise. :-)

  48. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    @Nigelj - 2 

    If it's any comfort, the majority of the world already acknowledges AGW. Even US-based oil companies all do so privately, and some publicly (which is against their own interests).  The biggest players are the likes of Saudi Aramco and Venezula, which both own the oil and oil production companies.  It would be interesting to find their official statments on the matter. 

    I believe (mmm, can't remember where I saw the figures) that a majority of the US population considers AGW to be real. Most also have other things on their mind, such as why their school will not discipline the two kids who disrupt every class, etc.  We may know that it is on track to be a huge problem somewhere in the future, but people don't live somewhere in the future.  There are now 7.5 billion humans, and outside of a relative handful they all want more:  more meat, refrigerators, cars, houses, wives.

    Them's the breaks.

  49. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung

    @Nigelj 

    They will do that regardless. A political position does not change based on physical evidence. 

  50. Climate and energy are becoming focal points in state political races

    Tom13:

    #38 - The broader point on the fossil fuel subsidies - is that most of what is labeled as subsidies by various advocacy groups, etc are simply not subsidies by any economic definition. Many of the so-called "tax subsidies" are tax deductions for the cost of doing business. Additionally many of the so-called "tax subsidies" are deductions which are allowable to all industries and are not subsidies carved out to benefit the fossil fuel industries.

    Huh.  Oil Change International, the advocacy site you dismissed, defines 'fossil fuel subsidy' as follows:

    A fossil fuel subsidy is any government action that lowers the cost of fossil fuel energy production, raises the price received by energy producers, or lowers the price paid by energy consumers. Essentially, it’s anything that rigs the game in favor of fossil fuels compared to other energy sources.

    That seem succinct and even self-evident to me. OTOH, while I'll never claim to be an expert, the energy economics I once studied enroute to an multidisciplinary MS in Environmental Science may give me an advantage. The history of the Seven Sisters was especially edifying.

    Tom13:

    A) you cited an article from an advocacy website, even individuals without expertise should be able to recognize the bias.

    B) The errors are readily apparant to anyone with a basic level of taxation

    C) my explanations, coupled with a basic knowledge of accounting, should be sufficient for most individuals to quickly grasp the errors.

    With due deference, your errors are readily apparent to anyone who grasps the implications of the Keeling Curve. For you to apprehend them, it will be necessary to acknowledge that some people, conventionally regarded as climate scientists, may know more about this stuff than you do. Failing that, you'll need to become a working climate scientist yourself. While you're putting the time in on that, you can trust that SkS contributors recognize the bias on priceofoil.com. Regardless, the site attempts to document the electoral influence trading, in all its protean guises, that distorts the 'free' market in fossil carbon's favor.

    Note, lastly, that priceofoil.com's definition of subsidy does not include the political freedom to privatize the full marginal benefit of the energy in fossil fuels, while socializing the marginal climate-change costs right out our private tailpipes.

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