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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 20801 to 20850:

chriskoz at 08:10 AM on 10 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

John Mason@4,

You know better than me that Slow Carbon Cycle, no matter how far back we can look into the past has never had the sequestering rate (maily silicate weathering) nearly as fast as to make any difference in the current antropogenic release, the release comparable to largest LIPs on record.

Therefore, there is no point talking about silicate weathering in th econtext of carbon cycle balancing we are facing in antropocene: it will never help us. All CC perturbtions in geo-history were fast releases (LIPs) and slow drawdown (increased weathering). Increased drawdowns (changes in weathering rates) never matched the changes in releases (LIPs), weathering were always slower by a factor of 100.

Boost230 at 08:01 AM on 10 March 2017

How Green is My EV?

How about an article that reviews the carbon impact of building an EV compared to a regular gas or diesel vehicle to really determine whether it is truly green? That is something brought up a lot to discourage EVs And I don't know what the difference truly is.

Thanks

PluviAL at 05:45 AM on 10 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

I hang around Skeptical Science and learned a lot from the pill size tweets, so I think this is a really good idea, although I seldom use tweeter.

Mark Schaffer at 03:14 AM on 10 March 2017

How Green is My EV?

Time for you to get a solar PV system and a Tesla Powerwall installed on your home.

citizenschallenge at 23:58 PM on 9 March 2017

Whistleblower: ‘I knew people would misuse this.’ They did - to attack climate science

Speaking of communicating clearly - what responsiblity do scientists have in that regard? Specifically I've spent a lot of time looking at Fyfe 2016 and it is about a poorly and counter-productively written as I can imagine - but better not call them on it. All ya get is hurt feelings and slammed doors, no matter how carefully or constructively one constructs their arguments.

Fyfe et al. 2016: stamp collecting vs informing and clarifying. Examining a failure to communicate
... and a question of perspective.
Alternately, Behold Seepage in Action.

(Skipping my introduction here)

Fyfe 2016 introduction:
It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming (b) slowdown or hiatus (a)(e), characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming (c), has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims (d).
_______________________________________________________

The problem >>>

Why the labyrinthian phrasing? Simplify wording. Clarify meaning.

(a) Creates a false equivalence between “slowdown” and “hiatus” - hiatus means STOPPED! But, Global Warming never stopped!

(b) Creates a false equivalence between “global warming” and “global mean surface warming.”

(c) Furthermore: “early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming” - implies “surface” warming slowdown (or faux hiatus) is a symptom of a “global” warming slowdown.

(d) “Evidence presented here contradicts these claims.” Given the paragraph's convoluted wording one could easily conclude this is saying: the “hiatus” (that is global warming stopping) is not contradicted

… which is exactly what the contrarian PR machine was hoping they could twist any science into. Why make it so easy?

(e) Why even use the politically charged term “hiatus” beyond a footnote? What possible purpose does it serve other than to fatally wound clarity and invite gross misinterpretation?

This paper seems a textbook example of “seepage” in action. Or as I would phrase it, unconsciously adapting the contrarian’s script. Please keep this in mind as you continue.
_______________________________________________________________________
Fyfe: ¶1 A large body of scientific evidence — amassed before and since the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5)1 — indicates that the so-called surface warming slowdown, also sometimes referred to in the literature as the hiatus,
__________________________________________________________
“sometimes referred to...” ? What purpose is there in reinforcing the faux “hiatus” meme?
_______________________________________________________________________
Fyfe: was due to the combined effects of internal decadal variability and natural forcing (volcanic and solar) superimposed on human-caused warming2.
__________________________________________________________

“internal decadal variabilities” - that would be heat transport?

Why not get explicit and point out that Atmospheric Physics are what's causing Global Warming - not Heat Transport between the oceans and the surface?
_______________________________________________________________________

But that's just the beginning highlights. For the entire exercise in futility visit: http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2017/03/fyfe2016-stampcollecting-vs-informing.html

John Mason at 19:17 PM on 9 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

Doug, the Slow Carbon Cycle is called just that for fairly obvious reasons. Yes it does mostly operate on geological timescales, but there is evidence for periods of highly enhanced weathering. These are considered to be preserved in the Sr isotope record e.g. in the run-up to the Hirnantian glaciation/extinction (ref below). The complex process of Ca-bearing silicate weathering by atmospheric CO2 dissolved in rainwater through to deposition of carbonate sediments is an overall remover of carbon, locking it up within limestone. Since Ca-silicate weathering and limestone deposition are both ongoing processes worldwide, there is a continuous flux of carbon from the air into the lithosphere. The quantity of carbon thus stored away in limestones is phenomenal. You will note that I talk about carbon as opposed to carbon-bearing species, as regardless of your points it cannot be denied that the process begins with carbon in the form of CO2 and its interactions with water and calc-silicates:

2CO₂ + 3H₂O + CaSiO₃ = 2HCO₃ ^– + Ca²⁺ + H₄SiO₄

and ends with calcium carbonate deposition:

2HCO₃ ^– + Ca²⁺ = CO₂ + H₂O + CaCO₃

2 moles of carbon (as CO2) at the start; 1 mole returned as CO2 at the end, 1 mole locked away in calcium carbonate. Overall, that whole bit of the Slow Carbon Cycle results in a net loss of atmospheric CO2.

That's the process going one way. But perturbations of the Slow Carbon Cycle in the opposite sense can occasionally be much more rapid - the Siberian Traps magmas cooking a thick oil/coal-rich sedimentary basin sequence being one example. Mankind's burning of the fossil fuels is another. The point is that the Slow Carbon Cycle both stores and releases carbon continuously, but great big carbon burps can occasionally occur, for which the consequences tend not to be pretty!

Ref: Young, S.A., Saltzman, M.R., Foland, K.A., Linder, J.S. and Kump, L.R. (2009): A major drop in seawater 87Sr/86Sr during the Middle Ordovician (Darriwilian): Links to volcanism and climate? Geology, October 2009, v. 37, p. 951-954.

Glenn Tamblyn at 12:47 PM on 9 March 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9

OMFG :-(

Nice catch Tom.

Doug Mackie at 12:32 PM on 9 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

Weathering basalt so slow it is OBFUSCATION to mention. Weathering limestone releases bicarbonate; insignificant to CC on human time scale

Moderator Response:

[JH] All-caps snipped.

Amended: Because the commenter is posting a mock tweet, they will be allowed.

Doug Mackie at 12:30 PM on 9 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

Calcification (formation limestone) removes 2 bicarbonate & releases 1 CO2 in ocean. Not realistic to imply bicarbonate precursor to a GHG

Doug Mackie at 12:27 PM on 9 March 2017

To tweet or not to tweet at Donald Trump? That was the question!

Dancing around a definition like this and introducing something not previously discussed (basalt) is EXACTLY what deniers do. SHAME!

Moderator Response:

[JH] The use of all-caps constitutes shouting and is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.

Amended: Because the commenter is posting a mock tweet, they will be allowed.

Tom Curtis at 11:16 AM on 9 March 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9

While not directly related to climate science, it is a fair indication of the quality of science reporting by The Australian Newspaper that they reported today that Isaac Newton discovered the laws of thermodynamics. C.P.Snow would be rolling in his grave.

This atrocity of fake facts should at least illustrate the quality of reporting in The Australian with regards to science in general, even when they find The Australian's reporting of climate science so genial to their prejudices.

nigelj at 06:49 AM on 9 March 2017

Explainer: How much did climate change ‘cost’ in the 20th century?

Much depends on where you live.

I live in a temperate climate region, and face costs from sea level rise, more storms and floods, reflected in insurance policies and rates. I face lower heating costs in winter, but these would not be that much lower, and I would have to buy air conditioner in summer. I think on balance I will be significantly worse off due to climate change. The costs of climate change also seem to me to be insidious and hidden.

Of course the billions in tropical and arid climate zones are even worse off. It would not be humane to ignore this.

People in Canada and northern parts of Russia would maybe do ok. This probably partly explains their rather climate science sceptical attitude.

barry1487 at 01:27 AM on 9 March 2017

The Skeptical Science temperature trend calculator

UAHv6 has finally been published. Kevin C has updated his temp trend app to include it. Could we have that updated at the SkS app, too?

chriskoz at 20:34 PM on 8 March 2017

Explainer: How much did climate change ‘cost’ in the 20th century?

To further elaborate on Gavin's point about these models'simplistic approach, I must once again bring the article about Samson 2011:

co2-limits-economy-advanced.htm

If the models consider the impact on the emitting nations themselves, they are simply bogus because impacts disproportionately affects non-emitting (e.g. African) nations.

sidd at 16:10 PM on 8 March 2017

Explainer: How much did climate change ‘cost’ in the 20th century?
One difficulty I have with integrated assessment models is that they seem to underestimate the unnerving possibility of sea level rise increasing by a factor of ten and remaining elevated for half a millennium. And Dr. Schmidt is quite correct about the self referential bit. Personally I find reading Tol exhausting. Given his history of erroneous results, I find myself compelled to check every claim, and too often the claims rest on previous work by Tol and so on.I am glad there are more competent people checking his work.sidd

chriskoz at 12:12 PM on 8 March 2017

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #9

A big report from Australia. Climate Council (former gov Climate Commission now defunct thanks to current govs' denialist attitude):

Angry summer is the new normal

In it, the usual critique of "Clean Coal" nonsense put forward by Malcolm Turnbull. But one point worth quoting here is:

Despite Australia's commitment to decrease its production of greenhouse gas emissions at the Paris international climate change talks in 2015, our emissions rose by 0.8 per cent last year.

I note that the rise of emissions coincides with the carbon tax repeal by "CO2 is only a trace gas" & "Coal is good for humanity" Tony Abbott. In the couple previous years, following the carbon tax introduction by previous, lefty govs, the emissions were falling slightly. The so called "Direct Action" (paying the pulluters for their largely token promisses) introduced by Tony, and cherished by the "Clean Coal" Malcolm, does not generate any news, means as if it did not exist. The only implied news comes herein and confirms that "Direct Action" is not working, the expected outcome.

michael sweet at 11:23 AM on 8 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Chriskoz,

I think that we are not very different in our thinking. I look at the glass as half full now. Perhaps since Australia has so much coal, and does not have as much renewable energy as the USA does, you are more skeptical than I am. It is best to have skeptical opinions reviewed to keep enthusiasts in line.

Without seeing any calculations, I doubt that cars can contribute more than a few percent of needed power at night. On the other hand, if cars were charged during the solar maximum during the day it would dramatically lower night time need for electricity. This graph from Thinkprogress

Current Claifornia electricity use

Appears to show that the largest grid operator in California got about 9,000 Megwatt from utility solar power on March 3, 2017. The top of the demand curve has been knocked way down by distributed solar. Comparing demand at 19:00, after the sun goes down, to the graph I posted at 24, it appears that the peak demand at 14:00 was reduced by at least 4000 Megwatt by distributed solar. Total peak demand was probably about 28000 Megwatt and solar provided half of that power for several hours. Hydro and nuclear baseload would have provided much of the remaining power. California will get several hours more direct sun in June than in March.

It is still very early days installing solar. Only a few years ago solar cost twice utility power. Now you save money by installing solar on your roof. With another few years of installing solar, during the solar peak there will be no demand for baseload power. That is not even considering wind. It will be very interesting to see a similar graph on a windy day this summer. Utilities will have to lower electricity cost during the solar peak to incentivise users to charge electric cars durig the day instead of at night.

It is discouraging to have electric cars running on coal power. We have to take the long view. Both the cart (electric cars) and the horse (WWS power) have to be built at the same time.

Every method of storing electricity for windless nights reduces the final cost of the grid, even if it is a small contribution. Car batteries will not do it all but they can reduce the final cost.

Jacobson likes Hydrogen (manufactured by electrolysis during periods of high wind/solar) as the primary energy storage. The hydrogen could be stored in current natural gas facilities. Fuel cells (still in scale up from lab models) would be the most efficient method of generating the electricity. Many other methods of energy storage are being considered. Grid interconnections will allow transfer of excess wind or solar from one area to other areas. It is difficult today to predict what methods will end up being the most economic.

Moderator Response:

[RH] Adjusted image size.

chriskoz at 09:24 AM on 8 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

michael sweet@24,

ATM, I have only time to quickly acknowledge your response, thanks.

This topic can be discussed at length. Briefly, I agree with all point you make. They confirm my opinion that, contrary to how this OP was written, EV batteries cannot be and will not be the main source of grid backing. They will play only a supplementary part, and a small one. The main part must be played by all the storage options you describe, that can be far more secure to start with.

From the cother commenters I see that the way EV batteries are currently used, they are big source of energy drawdown at night while they are driving during the day: the opposite to what they should do. Consumers are absolutely opposed to exploiting their batteries the required way and don't want to discharge them to the benefit of the grid because it shortens their lifetime. So they stick to the stigma of "running EVs on coal", even though no doubt the majority of them don't like to be seen that way. It comes down to the economic insentives: if the price of the so called "off-peak" nightly tarrif (for energy generated mainly from coal in my state of NSW) was higher, much higher than the daytime energy, then those EV battery owners would do everything to charge it at day from their solars and sell the charge at night. This is the main, crucial incentive, a link to the renewable grid. A cheap, and most importantly, a secure coupled storage is another link. I don't see EV batteries to take that role as currently they are not cheap (and I don't see them becoming cheaper over time because their production require mining of rare minerals) and they are simply consumers rather than producers. We have short moments when people let them be producers when the price of energy spikes very high, like on Sandy aftermath: the energy prices went to essntially infinity. But we're not talking about disaster management here: rather about the main grid operation. I arguee once again, that for grid sustainability, we need fundamental shift of economic incentives for a large energy consumer like the EV battery fleet, to become energy producer in order to balance the grid. And that applies to other consumers cappable of energy storage, e.g. house solar batteries. In looks obvious to me, that house solar batteries (as opposed to EV batteries) have much much higher chance of becoming this "missing link" in zero energy grid in OP sense, because they can be far more reliable to start with. But I would still argue that the electric battery technology will be only a minor player in the big picture of balancing grid operations: a cheaper storage is required, and with a good energy density, although I doubt humanity ever be able to compress renewable energy on the required scale to the levels compressed in FF. But tha latter is not really required to achieve zero emissions.

BILLHURLEY13951 at 05:50 AM on 8 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

Also, I've had some luck by admitting I firmly beleive man has caused Global Warming - but if we differ on that, so what? It's still a problem! And it's exacerbated by more GHGs.

Often the other side, pauses and rethinks their entire conclusion (which is what we want - right?)

OK, I say: "If a tornado is heading my way, I won't sit there until I figure out how it started. "

Is that maybe a good way to argue?

BILLHURLEY13951 at 05:43 AM on 8 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

Great topic. Americans opinions on CC are broad but shallow. IE since it's a distant problem, God or technology (or both) - will come thru for us so it's not an immediate concern. But it is a 'concern' and we need not forget it.

That's my experience listening to most serious voters here in Texas. The majority don't dispute the problem. Just the solution (the ones they hear anyway) turn them off.

But there is a overwhelming problem. The biggest mismatch seems to be a lack of understanding for biodiversity, the "web of life" relationships and basic science stuff (when an individual link stops working- the chain weakens).

nigelj at 05:19 AM on 8 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

Stephen Baines @2, you make the point regarding the narrow majority believing we are altering the climate, but the larger majority wanting renewable energy. You appear to say the numbers might suggest people may accept the science, but be relutant to openly admit we are altering the climate because they don't want to be seen as identifying with the liberal elite, but find it easier to say they support renewable energy. It's a good point.

They may also be unwilling to accept that humanity has potentially done something wrong, or have religious convictions that humans could not possibly alter Gods creation (I say this respectfully), but are still able to support renewable energy. It's a peculiar and contradictory mental state, but entirely possible, because humans are knownfor being able to hold contradictory views in their head,without being bothered by the tension of this. I read a psychological article on this somewhere.

However we also have the situation where only a narrow majority believe we are altering the climate, but a bigger majority want carbon emissions cut. This is harder to explain, and suggests they are confused, or half sceptical, and are kind of "betting a dollar both ways".

PluviAL at 03:00 AM on 8 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

Right on, M. Sweet, this is what jumps out from the maps at me too. Regions strongly affected can be won over with message targeted at their cultural concerns.

Once on board, the Senate will move to rapid action, because it is strongly controlled by the rural parts of the nation: 2 Senator represent 38 million Californians, whereas an equal number of 2 senators represent the scant population of Wyoming.

The presidency will go the same way too because of the electoral college system distortion.

fpjohn at 01:27 AM on 8 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

It strikes me that those more inclined to acceptance of CC and regulation of CO2 emissions are geographically distributed in regions increasingly subject to drought and coastal or regional flooding. Perhaps direct experience is the relative demographic parameter?

yours

Frank

michael sweet at 20:50 PM on 7 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

I have seen reports that white, non-organic farmers are aware that the weather is changing. For political reasons they do not talk about climate change, they say "unusual weather we have been having lately". SInce it is for political reasons that they do not argue for changes, more data is unlikely to change their minds. It is not clear to me why they would notice weather changing, which is critical to their business success, but not take action to preserve the weather we have.

A new message has to be developed to reach this important group of people who already know that the weather has changed. Since you have experience with these groups of people, can you suggest a message that will counter the fossil fule story? Perhaps the next severe drought in the Midwest will convince them to take action.

Tom Curtis at 20:35 PM on 7 March 2017

Global warming theory isn't falsifiable

stephen baines @80, thankyou. I must reject the accolade, however, in that I have not kept up with the last 20 years of philosopy of science, so it is not really a review. Philosophy Now has this summary of the more recent developments in philosophy of science:

"The first of these questions is the one with which the likes of Popper and Kuhn wrestled in the past (see previous page), but the debates have moved on. As David Papineau, of King’s College London, remarks, “Nobody works with Popper’s assumptions any more.” These days, the debate is between instrumentalists (not of the musical variety) and realists. Instrumentalists argue that scientific theories do not tell us what the world is really like but they do allow us to make predictions about the world. Scientific theories are instruments for making predictions about the world. Their opponents, who are called realists, believe that scientific theories in fact describe the world and that the ability of a theory to make accurate predictions is an indication that it is successfully describing the world.
Bas van Fraassen takes the position that what scientists are trying to do is to describe the way the world really is, not merely to make mathematically accurate predictions. However, he agrees with the instrumentalists that one can never know the truth of such claims and can only judge theories on how good they are at making predictions. He calls this position ‘constructive empiricism’."

stephen baines14492 at 14:48 PM on 7 March 2017

Global warming theory isn't falsifiable

That's a great succinct review Tom!

Applying the strict Popperian criteria of falsifiability in a blanket sense to complex topics like climate change is a common trick of all science skeptics. It's also common trick used by those challenging evolution, who claim that every uncertainty or gap concerning the mechanisms which give rise to new species, adaptation or novel traits should be taken as disproof of decades of research supporting central role of evolution in biology.

The other trick is to claim that consensus formed through years of testing and rejecting alternative hypotheses results in an unfalsifiable hypothesis, as if the previous testing never occurred. It's an effective attack (on purely rhetorical grounds) when targeting those unfamiliar with the history of disciplines in question. It plays well in the atmosphere of cultural division that we now see.

wili at 14:47 PM on 7 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

Interesting in the first map where (outside of the NE) you find rural counties with relatively high percentages understanding climate science: predominantly Black counties in the deep South; predominantly Latino communities in, for example, Texas; predominantly Native American counties in say Arizona and South Dakota; centers of organic farming such as SE Wisconsin and thereabouts. So...it's white, non-organic farmers and their communities we have to work on, it seems. Any ideas?

stephen baines14492 at 14:32 PM on 7 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

I have a slightly different take. I'm not sure people are that skeptical of scientists - trust is at 71% afterall, which is darn high. But what they think scientists believe is different from what scientists actually believe, and not by a small amount. While 53 % thought climate change was human caused, a marginally smaller fraction (49%) think scientists agree with that proposition. People have an imaginary scientist in mind when they trust them!

Three possible explanations non exclusive explanations.

1. We and the press have done a terrible job at emphasizing the degree of consensus about the issue. The simplistic equal time approach of most journalism is a factor. Also, obviously, the intense counter PR by fossil fuel companies.

2. The fact that "climate change" has become a code word in the culture wars pitting so called "coastal elites" against small town "common folk." (As I supposedly come from both, I hate those terms!). That is part of a larger PR campaign, it's true, but one that amplifies pre-existing divisions in US society - and maybe across the Western World. But it may explain why people are fine with approaches that address anthropogenic climate change without having to admit to it.

3. People like to believe their position is right and claim science supports it to buttress their case.

The degree to which each hypothesis is correct may suggest different approaches to addressing the problem.

Tom Curtis at 08:46 AM on 7 March 2017

Global warming theory isn't falsifiable

Synthetic Organic @77, it is impossible that falsifiability be "the very definition of science" given that as a criterion, it was not invented till the 1930s in Austria by Karl Popper. A great deal of what is still considered some of the best science peceded that invention, including the discovery of relativity (special and general) and of quantum mechanics. That science was carried out by people who had never heard of falsifiability, let alone imagined that "it was the very definition" of the activity they devoted their lives to.

The key point here is that Popper was just one philosopher of science, who proposed what he considered to be a non-falsifiable methodology of science. That is, by his own words, his theory of the method of science was not scientific.

More importantly, his proposed methodology was not agreed to by all, or even most, philosophers of science, and was shown to be methodologically inadequate, and false as a description of the actual methodology of science by his student Imre Lakatos. That was also shown by Thomas Kuhn, and arguably (although his thesis is far too strong) by Paul Feyerabend.

There is a lot of confusion on this point, both because many scientists are indifferent philosophers of science (although a rare few are very astute), and because Naive Falsificationism (which Popper also rejected) is often seized upon by pseudoscientists as a criteria to (incorrectly) reject genuine science, and also by disciplines of disputable scientific merit (economics, psychology) in attempts to show that they really are scientific.

Leto at 08:17 AM on 7 March 2017

Global warming theory isn't falsifiable

Synthetic Organic, your post sounds very reasonable, and prompted me to go back and read the thread. In the broad context of the whole thread, there was ample evidence that PanicBusiness had a foolish notion of what science was, how it should proceed, and whether AGW should count as science. The suggestion that he had not got past introductory science classes was, perhaps, ad hominem, but if he did get past those classes he clearly failed to develop a mature understanding of the nature of science.

Among his comments from 2014 was this: "I personally find it very likely that in the coming five years there will be no significant warming or there will even be significant cooling. If that happens I want the CAGW community to not come up with additional excuses, and hand-waving like it was totally expected."

In hindsight, he looks especially foolish given the string of record global temperature records that have occurred since he made his prediction. (It's comically ironic, really, that his own worldview was so rapidly falsified.)

Besides, he was a sock puppet, so all of his posts were tainted with dishonesty. Those who engaged with him probably picked up on that dishonesty, recognised him as a troll, and reacted accordingly.

I agree it would have been better if the ad hominem elements had been left out. On the other hand, I think the SkS regulars are remarkably patient with folks like PanicBusness. It is not surprising that an ad hominem flavour crept into the thread, given that the regular SkS commentors were dealing with a dishonest fool pedalling a tired denialist meme.

nigelj at 06:54 AM on 7 March 2017

Americans are confused on climate, but support cutting carbon pollution

So this is the general picture in summary: A narrow majority of Americans think we are altering the climate, and not that many are concerned about the future, yet a large majority want action on climate change ( a great thing in my opinion).

It's intriguing and contradictory, but there are possible explanations. Firstly It suggests whatever some people think about causes of climate change, they see value in renewable energy for a variety of other reasons.

Secondly it suggests some people are sceptical about the science, but want emissions reduced "just in case" the science is right. So people are sort of half sceptical, and very confused or uncertain in America (and probably some other countries) and this is hardly surprising, given an irresponsible, self interested campaign to spread doubt about the science, and generally politicise the climate issue.

SyntheticOrganic at 05:46 AM on 7 March 2017

Global warming theory isn't falsifiable

Tom Dayton said: "You are incorrect that falsifiability is "the very definition of science." That is something you would know if you had gotten past introductory science classes in college. (It is sad that such fundamentals of science are inadequately taught at the introductory course level."

I resent your comment. First of all, it is an ad hominem (and hence should have been deleted), because it clearly implies that PanicBusiness never got past an introductor science class n college. Also, it implies that PanicBusiness was never taught the fundamentals of science.

Your argument is also fallacious because it asserts that PanicBusiness' statement is wrong without explaining why. Rather, you simply assert that his statement is false, then go on to conclude that he hadn't gotten past introductory science in college. Whether PanicBusiness even has a high school diploma or not is irrelevant. What is relevant are his reasons for claiming that falsifiability is "the very definition of science."

I assure you that I got well past introductory science course, so I must say that I am offended by your implication because by extension I believe you are also suggesting that I never got past introductory science classes in university or that I do not understand the fundamentals of science. I believe that your ad hominem extends to me because I basically agree that falsifiability is an excellent criteria for differentiating between science and non-science.

The wordpress article you linked to does not really explain why you are so disdainful of PanicBusiness' idea that falsifiability is "the very definition of science." I disagree that it is "the very definition of science" but your response is just a dismissive ad hominem that doesn't explain or clarify.

I am also a little disappointed by the "Response" (in green) found within PanicBusiness' comment. I think the idea of falsifiability being crucial for differentiating between science and non-science is well enough know that a source should not be required and it would have been more appropriate to clarify or explain that Karl Popper wasn't suggesting that falsifiability is "the very definition of science itself."

I am disappointed that Tom's post wasn't deleted because I think it is clearly an ad hominem, but I suspect that it was allowed to stand because PanicBusiness seems to be arguing that the theory of anthropomorphic global warming (AGW) is not scientific. This appears to me to be a bias in the application of the rules.

I think PanicBusiness is wrong to say that the AGW theory is unfalsifiable because it clearly makes predictions which are falsifiable.

In addition, alternative explanations for global warming often make predictions which are simply false, so the AGW theory stands as the best explanation.

The AGW theory of global warming is falsifiable, hence it meets that very crucial criteria of a scientific hypothesis or theory. The AGW theory is also the best explanation for global warming.

Moderator Response:

[PS] Moderation complaints are always offtopic. Moderating is an onerous task for which we dont always get it right but a lengthy post complaining about comments made more than 2 years ago does not contribute much to the discussion. Your main points are fine.

John Hartz at 05:23 AM on 6 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Suggested supplemental reading:

UBS Analyst Gets Future Investment Costs For Tesla Supercharger Network Super Wrong by Loren McDonald, Clean Technica, Mar 5, 2017

michael sweet at 21:23 PM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

In my post above it should say "generation that covers the peak load during the day will only have to generate 50% at night".

Shifting charging times of electric cars and other flexible energy use would significantly lower usage on windless lights beyond current usage. Baseload plants currently pay users to use excess electricity at night. Renewable energy plants would compensate users differently to adjust total power loads.

michael sweet at 20:57 PM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Chriskoz,

We need to consider the entire future grid. Storage of electricity in cars will not be the only method of storing electricity. If the only action that people take is to stop charging their car when electricity supply is low, that will help support the grid a lot. Many people with a Bolt (240 miles per charge) who only use 40 miles a day will be able to easily go over several days without charging their car. I do not fill up my car with gas until it gets low, do you imagine that everyone will require daily charging for electric cars? Like the airconditioner mentioned above, with a small incentive people will delay charging until they need the fill up. Transportation uses approximately 29% of total US power. It would be possible to delay a large fraction of that use for a few days until a new weather system arived to spin the wind generators.

More electricity is used during the day than at night. There is no reason that we need to generate as much electricity at night as during the day. Power demand curve Generation that covers the peak demand during the day will only have to generate 25% at night to cover needs. It is never windless over the entire USA, especially those areas that ae naturally windy.

Other adjustments will be made to cover windless nights. Currently hydro power is primarily used to cover peak power from 11:00 am to 7:00 pm. there is nothing stopping hydro from running fom 7:00 pm until the wind picks up. Since hydro currently generates about 5% of total power, it could generate almost all of electricity needed during most of your windless night. No new hydro needs to be built, we only need to change the time of day the turbines are run. It is also possible to cheaply add turbines to current dams to increase the peak power they can generate for the rare windless night. Hydro would then be run at minimum flow rates for several windy nights to allow the reservoir to refill.

I took a rafting trip down the Colorado river many years ago. There is a strong tide on the river as each days peak generation surge of water goes by.

Currently existing gas peaker plants can supplement hydro while renewable energy backup plants are built. It is currently not economic to build out a lot of renewable storage because you make more money just selling the electricity on the open market. Once wind and solar have displaced baseload power it will be more economic to build out other methods of storage.

Many other methods are available to store electricity for windless nights. Focusing on a single, new, limited method of storing energy, as several posters have done on this thread will always result in finding that the method fails. No-one suggests using a single method of generating power on widless nights.

Jacbson and Budischak both use zero batteries in their plans to power the world with renewable energy. Budischak finds batteries too expensive to build. This OP suggests a way to add significant battery power to the grid for free. The batteries are built for another purpose entirely and excess capacity is used to support the grid. That can only reduce the cost of a renewable grid as proposed by researchers like Jacobson who have conservatively left out htis option.

I have also seen it proposed to use old batteries from cars, which have 75-80% of their storage left, as backup for the grid. Since the batteries have already been used their cost would be low.

Think through these proposals. Cars alone cannot support the grid. That does not mean that the grid cannot be supported, it means that cars will only provide a fraction of the needed support. Since it would be free to use car batteries as described that would lower the cost of any renewable grid. Just shifting charging time lowers cost significantly.

nigelj at 10:09 AM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Chriskoz, you have delivered some much needed scepticism of the logical kind. My immediate reaction was the whole use of car batteries to power the grid would be too complicated to make work.

Regarding whether people can be relied on to plug their cars in. You could probably determine a level at which you have high reliability (at a comparable level to the conventional grid) but it might deliver low participation, and so not much electricity.

But being sceptical of your and my own scepticism, maybe there could be incentives to encourage participation, and a contractual agreement, and Trump won't be there forever. He is an anomaly (please I hope so, there can't be endless complete idiots).

The ideal solution is a better battery. While I'm not a technology dreamer that thinks anything is possible, it seems odd that we can't devise some cheap form of battery of high capacity. Perhaps there are such things, but the oil companies have bought up all the patents.

Or perhaps conventional batteries could close much of the gap in supply. For very extreme conditions maybe we have to rely on fossil fuels like gas, that can be turned on rapidly, and sequester this carbon in the ground or something. But again, this creates a technically complex system, and would have to get through all the political complexity as well. We could be stuck with coal like you say, but that's so depressing.

chriskoz at 08:39 AM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Glenn Tamblyn@10,

It's worth noting that your Phase 2 was already resolved for more than 60 years - diesel electric railway locomotives - the most efficient self-contained ground transportation technology today.

Why Phase 3 (I understand you mean EV carying its own electric charge) did not happen in rail transport yet? Answer is in my post above: it's next to impossible to recreate the miracle of energy density and convenience of diesel fuel. Of course we have pure electric locomotives (they came, not surprisingly, even earlier than diesel electrics. But they cannot be self contained: they must consume external energy via an overhead wire or a third rail.

chriskoz at 08:14 AM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Tthereaer two issues ignored in this OP.

1. Amount of power transfer between grid and EV batteries needed to balance the grid. To achieve zero emissions, substantial part of the total power output of the economy (in US it's a staggering verage 10kW/person) must be supplied by car betteries overnight when the sun is not shining and in the event the wind is not blowing. That drawdown at night must be ballanced by twice the production during the day (20kW/person) even ignoring seasonal/weather fluctuations. If taken into account, those fluctuations (e.g. extreme heat or winter snow when days are dark/short) multiply the demand on the grid several folds. How much solar pannels installations do we need to supply that energy - at least an average power of 20kW/person? How big the transmissions lines need to be to supply that energy from car batteries to hungry energy customers, e.g. alluminum smelters? Then comes the question of energy security: what happens if majority of population forgets to "re-plug-in" their cars in the evning, or decides not to do it because of some massive hysteria (e.g. inspired by an irresponsible presidential tweet), or simply in the name of american freedom to drive their car wherever and however they want as Henry Ford thought them? The result: total grid collapse. I think from the energy security standpoint alone, the idea of substantial grid backing by EV batteries is just pure utopia.

2.Energy density of oil/petrol and associated convenience of its transport and almost instantanous re-energising at the bowser cannot be replaced by the existing EV technology. The miracle of that energy density compressed into oil (and to coal) by 100Myear long geo-processes is difficult to reproduce in a timescale of days (e.g. by solar panels) needless to say a few minutes by a customer at the bowser. At the moment, the only imaginable solution would be to lift the battery with a crane and replace it with another one. Say, it's about 400kWh of energy (equivalent of 8litres of petrol/2gallons of gasoline for a very, very efficient car). If a servo station performs about 100 such operations per hour (average traffic on petrol stations I witness arround my neighbourhood) then each of them must have the rechyarging power supply of 400kWx100=4,000kW. That's a signifficant infrastructure. Until it is not built, we are stuck with proverbial EV "runing on coal".

Rob Honeycutt at 04:19 AM on 5 March 2017

Climate Bet for Charity, 2017 update

dwr... I'd make a $5 side bet that KW KT (Kiwi Thinker) has to change the scale on his Y-axis before the bet concludes.

David Kirtley at 01:54 AM on 5 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Jdeutsch @16: The Union of Concerned Scientists had a report about the life-cycle costs, etc of EVs: Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave.

MA Rodger at 23:12 PM on 4 March 2017

Climate Bet for Charity, 2017 update

My own version of the progress of this bet (here - usually two clicks to 'download your attachment') provides yet a third representation of the bet. It's main benefit, apart from being far more colourful and thus more cheerful, is that it plots the contribution from each month within the decade and shows how much they each assist or not (red or blue) each side in the bet.

The present state of play is shown by the 'pyramid' trace which sets the average required from the remaining months if the outcome were to be a draw. Thus, the 'pyramid' trace being below the 2001-10 average shows the temperature-record-to-date is favoring a warmer 2011-20. And any monthly temperature above the 'pyramid' trace is improving that position. You will note that there has not been a month improving the status of a cooler 2011-20 since April 2015, almost 2 years ago.

We can expect the 'pyramid' trace, bar a big volcano going bang in the coming years, to continue to drop and at an increasingly rapid rate as the period available for reversing the 'hot' lead shrinks to zero. This of course assumes that AGW doesn't also play a role itself by bringing us a significant amount of warming in the next few years. And all that is without the doomsday scenario for the cooler bet (which is surely almost a certainty) of the release of an RSS TLT v4.0. Of course, the change from UAH TLTv5.6 to v6.0beta5 did have an opposite effect. (The 'pyramid' trace presently sits 0.08ºC below the 2001-10 average with v6.0 but it would have been down at 0.12ºC below with v5.6.)

Glenn Tamblyn at 22:24 PM on 4 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

The whole area of storage is going to take off and grow far more sophisticated. A lot of current thinking (no pun intended) is very preliminary>

I think we will see a very hybrid storage network out there. Large systems like pumped hydro, storage as heat, flow batteries, other mechanical type systems. Then static chemical batteries like Li-Ion and follow-ons like magnesium.

Also missing from this mix is consideration of ultra-capacitors. Maybe not up to storing what batteries can but really really good at the very short charge/discharge cycles. Ideal for protecting chemical batteries from short cycle effects.

Just because the battery in your car only lasts 10-7-5-3 years doesn't mean that you will need a complete new battery pack. An important development might be batteries that can be refreshed/regenerated with much less resources and effort. So when you swap the battery out, the replacement isn't brand new, its just an old battery that was sent off for a 'grease and oil-change'.

Then a wild card development might be the alternative means of charging. Inductive Charging. Non-contact, remote charging. Initially perhaps just a more convenient charging system at home or the office - park and it charges. But it can actually be extended to the roads themselves - inductive charging is possible on the move. Charge up while you sit at the lights, or cruise along the highway. Obviously a huge infrastructure roll-out but that might change the mix - cars with much less storage (I wont say batteries) that are being regularly recharged through the day. Maybe much less battery capacity needed.

dwr at 20:41 PM on 4 March 2017

Climate Bet for Charity, 2017 update

Colours refer to the lines on the chart at Kiwi Thinker's site, sorry: http://www.kiwithinker.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Climate-Bet-Dec-2016.jpg

dwr at 20:39 PM on 4 March 2017

Climate Bet for Charity, 2017 update

Kiwi Thinker's method looked good for the 'sceptics' for a a while there. Doesn't look like that green line has much chance of falling below the red one again between now and 2020.

Riduna at 17:50 PM on 4 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

The use of EV batteries to provide additional energy for the grid durng periods of peak demand could cover periods of peak demand 1. if grid management had access to EV batteries when those periods occur - most likely during the daytime and 2. if sufficient EV's were in use, which currently is not the case, though it maybe by 2025.

However, by 2025 utility-scale storage devices are likely to be available, enabling rapid access to the energy needed to cover peaks in demand and this would obviate the need to access car batteries for back-up energy.

KR at 15:17 PM on 4 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Recently, my local electric utility came by with an offer - for a small break on our bill, they installed a controller on our air conditioner that can be used to remotely and briefly shut it down during peak demand times to mitigate shortages. We agreed - It just made a lot of sense, allowing them to handle higher peak demand spikes without the cost of adding additional rarely used generators.

It occurs to me that car chargers could be made with that capability built in - 10% longer charging times on occasion would be a small price to pay for electrical utility management, and hardly noticeable.

jdeutsch at 11:59 AM on 4 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

Makes sense from an energy point of view. But we need mass transit as an alternative. BTW, any figures onlife-cycle analysis of electric personal vehicles (mining, manuracturing, recycling, etc.)?

John Hartz at 10:02 AM on 4 March 2017

Electric Cars are the Missing Link to a Zero Carbon Energy Grid

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