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Adri Norse Fire at 21:31 PM on 10 January 2017CO2 lags temperature
If we have verified that CO2 follows the increase of the global temperature in the ice cores with a determined time delay, it is evident that it is not the CO2 that causes the temperature increase, but the opposite. It is a proof that the temperature causes the increase of CO2. So far we are all agreed. But how do you know that CO2 is responsible for current climate changes? Because it is a greenhouse gas? Of course, all greenhouse gases produce a warming (if the theory of greenhouse effect is true) in the global temperature. But, how do you know that the current increase in temperature (+ -0.5 ° C since the end of the Little Ice Age) is due to the action of the tiny fraction of the atmosphere composed of greenhouse gases and among them the tiny part composed of CO2 and within the CO2 of the tiny percentage produced by human industrial societies and not due to the action of other more widespread greenhouse gases or to the huge natural emissions of CO2 or the undisputed influence of the sun on global temperature wich in turn raises the atmospheric CO2 level?
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adamski5807 at 16:12 PM on 10 January 2017Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools
Tom @30. U.S. Intel Chiefs have a history of deceiving the public ( Glenn Greenwald). Who can forget James Clapper performance before Congree regarding the NSA in 2013?? So then - where is the evidence?? The latest report again says nothing on this, a report which was claimed to be why the 35 diplomats were deported. The phrase “we assess” was used 19 times without a single fact to demonstrate Russian involvement. In other words we, the intelligence community, have made a judgment, and you, the American people, must take it on faith. NSA even gave it a moderate vote of confidence.
So lets look at your reasons.
Malware - It cannot be claimed that tools such as X-Agent have been exclusively sourced by Russia when it can be shown others have access and these tools and the infrastructure the DNC hackers allegedly used are not evidence that points to any specific actor. Indeed any cyber-crime actor, like the NSA, seeks to disguise as a different actor when committing attacks. Something that "proves" that A did it is likely to have been created by B, C or D to disguise as A. All such hacking tools use freely available infrastructure like TOR or rented networks from cyber-crime wholesalers like the recently exposed Israeli denial-of-service franchiser.
Crowdstiker - FBI claims that democracts refuse full access to DNC servers. Did C/striker get this? How do you do a thorough investigation without full access?
Putin - stated that he would like a cooperative relationship with US. With Clinton comparing him to Hitler, naturally look to the othr side. How many time have we heard the US state thier preferred candidate.
Assange - WikiLeaks conducted themselves as actual journalists, not stenographers for the CIA and Pentagon, and made the secret documents public, damaging the candidate who was the overwhelming favorite of the military-intelligence leadership. If you think the publication by WikiLeaks of US military and diplomatic communications that document war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan and conspiracies against governments around the world is treasonous, then you and I have a major difference.
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Tristan at 14:40 PM on 10 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
@RedBaron
Maybe this is simplisitic, but it seems that to advance your position you need to have references for the following things, and a discussion on the significant caveats:
A) Carbon capacity of existing temperate pastoral grassland (seems like Jobbagy and Jackson (2000) has you covered)
B) Carbon capacity of the proposed C4 pastoral grassland.
C) Cost/time associated with converting the grasslands of A) to the grasslands of in B). -
michael sweet at 10:27 AM on 10 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Red Baron,
It appears to me that you feel that your opinion is the only thing that can be accepted science and everyone else is incorrect. Since I am not expert in this area, I have to go with the consensus opinion. If your soil claims have merit keep on presenting them to others. Scientists accept new proposals once they see convincing data. "Potential climate wedges" from supporters is not very convincing.
I think you should stop your very loud criticism of others based on your assumption that you know it all. Perhaps there is some merit in others experience. Voicing the mainstream scientific opinion cannot be called "false myths". Perhaps I have misread your posts.
From our previous discussion it is clear that you greatly underestimate the amount of carbon that has to be removed from the biosphere and overestimate how much soil can remove. In the end we will have to implement everything that removes carbon so perhaps your ideas will be seen as beneficial. In any case it will probably improve the soil for those who can implement it.
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william5331 at 05:13 AM on 10 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
I suppose they could fill the bottom floors of tall buildings with concrete and enter at the second floor. Wharves could be built to moor boats and singing boatmen imported from Florence. Going with the flow so to speak. There should be a great business opportunity for raising houses a few meters and putting piling underneath. Could be quite exciting too. There should be an influx of crocodiles and water moccasins and even the giant hybrid pythons. Mangroves will become the favored (or only) garden plant that will grow. Spoon bills and other birds will use them to nest and the area will become a naturalist paradise. "always look on the bright side of life"
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RedBaron at 04:56 AM on 10 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Tom,
I have no fundamental problem with Jobbagy and Jackson. It is of course discussing the highly degraded current state rather than prior to industrialized agriculture, overgrazing, undergrazing and various other human impacts. So you sould be careful in the conclusions you draw from the paper. But I can certainly accept in the most general terms the data while still disputing certain conclusions some might draw from it.
As far as your claim of typically about 1% SOC found in mollic epihedons. That of course is the problem. When soils that historically contained 6-10% SOC prior to human impact are currently holding 1% SOC we have a serious problem. Basically farming on subsoil.
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Tom Curtis at 03:54 AM on 10 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
RedBaron @14:
"Now the last thing for you to connect all the dots is understand what biome builds soils, forests? or grasslands? This is again 100 year old science. Mollic Epipedon"
While Mollic epipedons are formed in grasslands and have a high (>0.6% , typically about 1% SOC according to one source I saw) SOC, Folistic epipedons are mostly composed of organic material and consequently, have SOC in the 10's of percents. They, or course, are formed in forestland.
That goes to show that just citing the high SOC values of Mollic epipedons, or that they are generated in grasslands has no evidentiary value. What is required is an actual stocktake of total carbon reservoirs for typical environments, as is provided by Jobbagy and Jackson (2000).
They show that temperate grasslands store 19.1 kg/m^2 of carbon in the first 3 meters (Table 3), with a further 5 kg/m^2 above ground (Table 4). In contrast temperate deciduous forests store 22.8 kg/m^2 of carbon in the first 3 meters, with a further 129.2 kg/m^2 above ground. Temperate evergreen forests also store more carbon in the soil than do temperate grasslands, and considerably more in the total ecosystem (although not as much in either as do temperate deciduous forrests). Similarly tropical forests (deciduous and evergreen) store more carbon in the first three meters of soil than do tropical grassland/savanna, and massively more when the whole ecosystem is taken into account.
You are welcome to say that that data is out of date, and link a more up to date source, but unless that source details total ecosystem storage for all relevant ecosystems, it does not supplant Jobbagy and Jackson.
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RedBaron at 23:43 PM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Michael,
When I supply a link like: Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised, what do you suppose "unrecognised" means if not missed by the accepted mainstream line? We have the situation where ~5,000 farmers and rapidly growing numbers in Austrailia, and a few case studies run by Dr. Jones for scientific verification are in fact doing right now as we speak what the accepted mainstream line completely ignores and even worse says is basically impossible. Well in my book, we can attach a high level of uncertainty to new breakthroughs like this, but it is improper to say it can't be done. That's denialism exactly parallel to AGW denialism.
Much the same, I gave you a source that claims
"The relative size of each of these pools can vary in
different soils. But in general, the size of the stable pool remains relatively constant, while the sizes
of the labile and slow pools are sensitive to management."That is the accepted mainstream line and it is what I was taught. That knowledge is 100 years old! For all that time no one really understood exactly why, but no one ever accomplish the formation of a mollic epipedon where one didn't exist. It basically was impossible. We could degrade it, but we didn't know how to bring it back. However, it is an impossible thing that several people are doing right now for the first time in human history! And you want me to hold back my enthusiasm?
It's even worse for SRI, which has over 5 million practitioners and over 700 articles in the scientific literature, yet the accepted mainstream line as reviewed by that link completely ignores it.
Did you ever wonder why I am so sympathetic to your SkepticalScience claims that "big oil" is actively obfuscating the science behind AGW? I have kept that open mind and reviewed the evidence because I know for a fact "Big Ag" is doing the same thing to soil science where ever it crosses the line in the soil they have claimed for themselves.
There is a reason I gave you that link anyway even though Daniel Kane clearly dances around that "Big Ag" minefield on tiptoe.
Currently the atmosphere and
ocean have too much carbon while soils have lost carbon at an alarming rate due to development,
conversion of native grasslands and forests to cropland, and agricultural practices that decrease soil
organic matterand
Oceans and aquatic systems are by far the largest at an estimated 38,000 gigatons (Gt)
and vegetation is the smallest of the pools at an estimated 650 Gt. Soil is about four times the size of
the vegetation pool at an estimated 2500 Gt, making it the largest terrestrial pool of carbon (Batjes,
1996).and
Historic land use conversion of native ecosystems to agriculture is responsible for soil carbon reductions as high as 60-75% (Lal, 2011).
(btw That's on land still in production. More cropland has been lost completely and abandoned to desertification than is currently in production)
So you can easily see the soil pool potential is far larger than the living biomass potential. I don't dispute that forests have greater biomass potential. I simply am saying the soil carbon potential is much greater.
Now the last thing for you to connect all the dots is understand what biome builds soils, forests? or grasslands? This is again 100 year old science. Mollic Epipedon
So when we talk about AGW mitigation strategies, do we talk about labile biomass carbon? Or the 4 times larger and orders of magnitude more stable soil carbon pool? It shouldn't even be in dispute. But by far the most common approach advocated is afforestation rather than soil sequestration. It's a zombie myth that keeps rearing its ugly head just like the zombie myth addressed in the OP!
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michael sweet at 21:14 PM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Red Baron,
Your link is not a peer reviewed source. While it is interesting it does not support your claim. You claim:
- "In my opinion, no scientist can complain about a politician like Trump getting the science completely wrong, if they also remain stuck on equally false myths like Dyson's just plant a bunch of trees to solve AGW myth."
From the introduction of your source:
- "Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that even if substantial reductions in anthropogenic carbon emissions are achieved in the near future, efforts to sequester previously emitted carbon will be necessary to ensure safe levels of atmospheric carbon and to mitigate climate change (Smith et al. 2014). Research on sequestration has focused primarily on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and reforestation with less attention to the role of soils as carbon sinks. Recent news reports of melting glaciers and ice sheets coupled with a decade of record-breaking heat underscores the importance of aggressive exploration of all possible sequestration strategies.
- Soils have the potential to sequester carbon from the atmosphere with proper management. Based on global estimates of historic carbon stocks and projections of rising emissions, soil’s usefulness as a carbon sink and drawdown solution appear essential (Lal, 2004, 2008). Since over one third ofarable land is in agriculture globally (World Bank, 2015a), finding ways to increase soil carbon in agricultural systems will be a major component of using soils as a sink. A number of agricultural management strategies appear to sequester soil carbon by increasing carbon inputs to the soil and enhancing various soil processes that protect carbon from microbial turnover. Uncertainties about the extent and permanence of carbon sequestration in these systems do still remain, but existing evidence is sufficient to warrant a greater global focus on agricultural soils as a potential climate stability wedge and drawdown solution."
My emphasis. A wedge is a small portion of the needed carbon drawdown. Your solution is described as a "possible wedge". Your chacterization of other posters as "getting the science completely wrong" is falsified by your reference. You need to stop making this claim.
The IPCC is described as discusing other methods of sequestration but not considering this method. Your method cannnot be considered as a major fix of carbon pollution as you have described when the IPCC is not even considering it. You are slandering other posters on this site who are following the accepted, mainstream line. You need to control your enthusiasm for your preferred method of farming. It is not a silver bullet.
I have been a lifelong gardener and currently have a small flower nursery (about 10,000 3 gallon pots) on 1/2 an acre. I have about 3,000 sq ft of greenhouse space. I am sympathetic to your style of farming. Good luck.
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RedBaron at 17:38 PM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Michael,
The best new review available is this:
However, it doesn't include SRI, pasture cropping, HPG, management impacts on methanotrophs and movement from the slow cycle to the stable pool or even the multispecies integrated forage cover crop/cash crop system being developed by Gabe Brown and others in conjunction with USDA-NRCS & SARE. In spite of these limitations, it is still a very good "101 primer" to get you started on understanding the vigorously debated issue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 10:48 AM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Daniel Mocsny,
Though I share some of your perspective I particularly disagree with your statement that “People are greedy and selfish.”.Since there have been studies done that confirm that altruism is an innate human trait (seen in young children), it is likely that the 'socio-economic-political' environment that a person is, or chooses to be, immersed in can significantly affect which aspects of their character are encouraged to develop and which ones are discouraged or beaten down.
From my perspective, the real problem is the popular misconception that the aspects of life that matter most are the “Competitions to Win - with the evidence of success allowed to be undeserved created impressions, particularly wealth obtained in ways that do not advance humanity to a lasting better future for all (more correctly the appearance of wealth, since money games and their rules are just made up by humans, and many cheaters prosper to the detriment of others and the future of humanity) ”.
Obviously humanity struggles to advance because the ones trying to win any way they can get away with have competitive advantages over everyone who honestly strives to help advance humanity to a lasting better future for all (the likely winners are not constrained by any sense of responsibility for the future of humanity). The profiteers of fossil fuel burning are clear examples of that.
Carbon taxes are not even legitimate equalizers. They sort of help the helpful, but they fail to disqualify the unhelpful.
Clearly the biggest failure of developed economic systems (and their associated political systems where politics has been perverted into being an extension of economics rather than being the monitor of economic activity and 'corrector' of failings of the economic activity to advance humanity to a lasting better future for all), is the lack of penalty for the ones who through the past couple of decades had gambled on continuing to get away with an understood to be unacceptable pursuit, a pursuit that was not advancing humanity to a lasting better future, a pursuit that was understandably detrimental to the future of humanity. Had it been clear that they would lose their bets they would have been angry, but pursued other ways of winning.
So implementing a carbon tax lets the trouble-makers keep their wealth and likely shift their focus to some other damaging unsustainable pursuit of personal benefit, because that is the type of people they have made-up their minds to be, people focused on winning any way they can get away with.
Climate science and the many other cases of the unacceptability of what is going on politically and economically are more than enough evidence that major fundamental changes need to occur. The younger and unborn generations need to “Win the defence of their future and get current day efforts focused on actually developing a better future for them (or at least not making things more difficult for them).”
As stated in my para-phrasing of the title of Naomi Klein's book “This (hopefully) Changes Everything”. The future of humanity requires changes of the socio-economic-political games to happen, the sooner the better, as long as the change is objectively focused on advancing humanity to a lasting better future for all. Any other objective is worth-less and is likely to be damaging.
The economy does not need to shrink, the economic game needs to change, and many of the current day perceived winners need to be clearly seen to be losers.
And increased learning in real world matters like the many fields of climate science are essential to ensure that humanity actually advances regardless of how popular and profitable it is to try to dismiss or discredit the elites (the actual best of a group - not the ones who think they are winners or better than others) and experts who can explain the unacceptability of popular and profitable aspects of developed human activity in the made-up human economic games.
However, I do agree that there is a potential need to 'shrink the developed economy', particularly the 'technological mass-consumption mass-marketing aspects'. Economic activity that keeps humans fitting in as part of life on this planet is essential for the future of humanity. Being apart from life, a damaging potential side-effect of technology, is detrimental to humanity.
It is simply unacceptable to attempt to justify or prolong 'current day activity that is understood to be creating challenges for others including future generations' by claiming that 'some current day perceived prosperity or wealth would have to be given up to avoid creating those challenges or costs'. The economic game only works well if the ones benefiting from an activity will be the only ones suffering any potential consequence.
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:54 AM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
The following statement in the OP incorrectly refers to 'terms' as 'phrases'.
"Moreover, the scientific community adapted the use of inaccurate phrases like “hiatus” and “pause” to describe what was..." -
michael sweet at 06:54 AM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Baron,
While you have a lot of interesting links in your post, none of them appear to me to support your claim that grasslands are the primary carbon storage method in nature. You have no link to the IPCC report that discusses this type of subject. You make very strong claims on very old, unrelated links that discuss grasslands generally, but do not make the claims you are trying to support.
Your link to biosequestration, which seems to be most on topic, discusses reafforestation as a primary method of fixing carbon first. It later mentions grasslands and herding animals but your claim that grasslands are the best pathway is not supported.
Please link to citations that specificly claim that grasslands are the best method to fix carbon in soil. The links should not be more than 5 years old without more recent support.
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bjornstjerneb at 06:24 AM on 9 January 2017Rose and Curry Double Down on Global Warming Denial
Last link in article is broken, I believe this is the correct one: https://www.carbonbrief.org/this-weeks-top-six-rebuttals-to-david-roses-warming-has-stopped-claim
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RedBaron at 05:10 AM on 9 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
@nigelj As I have pointed out many times on other portions of this website. You got the wrong biome. It is not the forests that can be a significant mitigation tool, but rather a different biome. We already have discussed this in detail. It’s called C4 perennial grasses in symbiosis with AMF. [1]
C4 carbon fixation - Wikipedia
C4 metabolism originated when grasses migrated from the shady forest undercanopy to more open environments,[2] where the high sunlight gave it an advantage over the C3 pathway.[3]
… Today, C4 plants represent about 5% of Earth's plant biomass and 3% of its known plant species.[4][5] Despite this scarcity, they account for about 23% of terrestrial carbon fixation.[6][7] Increasing the proportion of C4 plants on earth could assist biosequestration of CO2 and represent an important climate change avoidance strategy.
Glomalin is Key to Locking up Soil Carbon
Of course that “mitigation tool” while capable of cooling the planet: Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic Cooling it is currently plowed, herbicided, burned, overgrazed, undergrazed, eroded, paved over and otherwise molested to the point that it basically no longer works very well.
If you seriously want to claim that we don't need to entirely eliminate fossil fuel use due to fixing the other side of the biological carbon cycle, please at least get the correct biome and correct biochemical pathway. Otherwise your arguments are quickly and easily shot down once the details and quantified impacts are put pencil to paper. Using the bucket analogy, reforestation give you a slightly bigger temporary sink. But they do very little in the way of removing carbon from the short term cycles and into the long term cycles. Gives you a bigger bucket but doesn't impact fluxes much once that bucket saturates.
In my opinion, no scientist can complain about a politician like Trump getting the science completely wrong, if they also remain stuck on equally false myths like Dyson's just plant a bunch of trees to solve AGW myth.
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nigelj at 14:42 PM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Donald Trump will no doubt be "tweeting" climate zombie myths on a weekly basis. America is a lost cause on climate change for at least 4 years. The guy has a terrible range of policies on absolutely everything from climate change to economics, because he doesn't correctly diagnose any problems.
I actually think this aircraft travel issue is another climate myth where people claim it can't be solved. Firstly you dont have to eliminate all air travel to stop dangerous climate change, just reduce it moderately. This has been documented in numerous reports.
Secondly we don't have to stop using air travel. There are numerous mitigation strategies including carbon sinks like planting forests, and use of alternative low carbon or zero carbon fuels like ammonia based fuels (which are viable for short to medium distances). I'm not saying any of this is easy, just that the problem is not insolvable, even just with existing technology.
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Tom Curtis at 14:34 PM on 8 January 2017Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools
adamski @29, I refer you to my comment @ 13. With regard to the idea that the emails was leaked, leakers do not leave the footprints of malware on the targeted computer. They certainly will not leave malware used by hackers associated with the Russian government. So, if we assume that Craig Murry is being truthful, and that his source was being truthful, we are then left to believe that Russian hackers penetrated the DNC files at the behest of the Russian government, but that their nefarious aims were preempted by an internal leaker. We are also to assume that the leaker coincidentally took an action that would damage Hilary Clinton, and help Donald Trump when public statements by Putin show that is an outcome he would have been very happy to achieve. Further, we must assume the internal leaker had complete access to the DNC computers, so would be easilly identified if it was revealed that there was a leaker, which he himself reveals.
At the same time, if we believe that the alleged internal leaker exists, we also have to beleive that the purported Romanian hacker Guccifer 2.0, who also claims credit is lying (even though he made the claim, and released some documents four weeks prior to the wikileaks leak). (With regard to the relationship between Guccifer 2.0 and the Russians, see here.)
I do not consider that credible.
What I do notice is that Julian Assange's leaks are exclusively damageing to the US and its allies. No leaks of Chinese or Russian material are, apparently, to be found. He is an intelligent man, and must realize he is being used as a pawn for some power inimical to the US, and conincidentally to Australia. That he continues to release the material on those terms makes him not a champion of free information, but a selective releaser of confidential material of the US and its allies, and therefore a traitor to his own nation (Australia). Any close associate such as Craig Murry is tarred with the same brush. Given that assessment, it is no surprise that they would attempt to disassociate their source from the Russian government; even if the data was dumped in their files anonomously.
In short, I do not believe the alleged leaker to have been dishonest because I believe the allegations of the existence of the leaker to be fictions.
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chriskoz at 13:39 PM on 8 January 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1
rkrolph@1,
It would be good (for AGW mitigation efforts) if Judy retired completely (i.e. do not utter any word about climate science anymore and spend the rest of life e.g. fishing) but that's not the case according to this article:
She's instead going to focus on growing her private business, Climate Forecast Applications Network, which provides insights into climate and weather risks for agriculture and energy companies.
So, now she's going to be a consultant for energy companies, likely downplaying the impact of their business, like Bjorn is doing. Cross "agriculture" from the above because it may not work due to conflict of interests.
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chriskoz at 13:10 PM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Daniel Mocsny @3,
We might see a "global warming stopped in 2016" denier argument, but maybe only if we get another 10-year or longer pause in surface warming... We might not get another 10-year pause in the near future. The odds went down with Trump getting elected. If positive feedbacks start kicking in, the base rate of warming might increase, shortening the time before the trend overrides short-term noise.
To better understand the impact of new US presidential term on global CO2 emmisions and consequently future warming, read this:
Trump carbon and the Paris agreement
which postulates that said impsact will be minimal, at least in the short term.On the other hand the impact on the level of scientific understanding of AGW in this administration cannot be any starker: from a decent, appropriate level (Obama), to the utter moronic ignorance of everything that a selfish 12y old childish brain cannot grasp. Such mind is able to deny not just AGW and the social origin of this problem but also all elements of human morality and decency. In such environment, as opposed to in previous environment, I'd argue that all AGW myths, including "global warming stopped in XXXX" myth, has better chances to come back, even regardeless of what will happen with surface temperatures. That's because the new perpetrator is a crackpot, denying everything that's inconvenient to his 12y old childish brain. He's shown time and time that he does not care about reality when it comes to his opinions, so all climate myths have much higher chance of resurfacing under his administration, regardeless of the reality. Therefore, I think your statement I quoted above (that the caption myth will die due to realities of AGW) is incorrect, or at least very improbable. It would be probable if DEM (who do not deny the reality) had won the election.
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adamski5807 at 12:09 PM on 8 January 2017Russian email hackers keep playing us for fools
Nigelj @ 27 - i dont think Clinton spoke about policy during the campaign. Dont recall her raising the issues about wealth inequity, corporation not paying tax, wages, globalisation and the rise of part time/casual employment. I do recall her stance on foreign policy in terms of being more aggressive which concerns me.
Tom @ 25. Sanders did really well considering he openly declared himself as a socialist, (which in america equates to being the devil), the backing of wall street for the clintion campaign and with 95% of U.S. media backing Clinton during the campaign.
Have you read Craig Murry blog where he states that he has spoken wih the democrate who leaked the emails? Wouldnt this seem a more plausible explanation of what happen with a member upset with the rigged DNC election process rather persuing cold war mcarthyism.
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Tom Curtis at 10:13 AM on 8 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Further to Echo_Alpha_Zulu @7:
1) Echo_Alpha_Zulu, in a confused passage, says that he won't dispute my data because it is correct, but then disputes that current NH temperatures are greater than those shown for circa 900 AD (he continues to insist the graph shows temperature 2000 years ago); and that furthermore my "correct" data is misleading because:
"Even the past 400 years temperatures have been at a steady incline. I do not argue that. The point I am making is that this warming period has little to do with us. It would have happened even if humanity didnt exist."
Here is the graph in question:
First, it is evident from that graph that the Greenland borehole data shows an increase in temperature, followed by a sharp decline until about 150 years ago. The "hockey stick" (Mann Bradley and Hughes 1999) shows declining temperatures until about 130 years ago. The "multi-proxy" (Moberg 2005) shows essentially flat temperatures, with a sharp rise starting about 1850. Finally, the instrumental record (HadCRUT3) shows declining temperatures from 1860-1900, a sharp rise to the 1940s, followed by a plateau for about thirty years followed by another sharp rise. The only "steady incline" over 400 years is from the "worldwide boreholes" (Pollack and Smerdon 2004), but that is because conduction within the rocks smooths out the signal so that no detailed signal can be expected. In short, Echo_Alpha_Zulu's claim to find a "steady incline" over 400 years comes in complete disregard of the information he himself presented.
It also disregards more recent multi-proxy temperature reconstructions such as the Mann (2008) global EIV reconstruction:
That, again, shows effectively flat temperatures from 1600 to 1900. Echo_Alpha_Zulu's "steady incline" in temperature over 400 years is a fiction.
Second, as already noted that HadCRUT4 temperature for the Northern Hemisphere "... shows an anomaly of 1.041 C for 2016, with all annual anomalies from 2001 forward being 0.554 C or higher". That is much more than the 0.3 C increase of the scaled ice bore temperatures (Left hand side of the graph). It is not more than the unscaled values (Right hand side), but the unscaled values differ between the two bore holes. That emphasizes the point that these are purely regional records, not agreeing in absolute value of change even between two fairly close locations in Greenland. So, if Echo_Alpha_Zulu insists that is the relevant scale, he needs to point out why we should expect Northern Hemisphere temperatures to match particular, different regional values. Failing that, his refusal to accept the actual data showing NH temperatures to be 0.2 - 0.7 C greater than the scaled borehole temperatures as showing they are in fact greater shows him to be in simple denial of the actual data which he vaunts himself on consulting.
2) Echo_Alpha_Zulu says:
"The sun is now just exiting one of the most violent maximums ever recorded in history. Fewer sun spots but the amount of energy released from CME's and solar flares was something we have never seen."
In fact the (possibly) most recent Solar Maximum had the lowest energy output of any since instrumental records of Total Solar Insolation began. That, however, is not what Echo_Alpha_Zulu is discussing. He limits the discussion to solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections only. Unfortunately it is difficult to get direct information on that. Wikipedia states:
"In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003. This event saturated the GOES detectors, and because of this its classification is only approximate. Initially, extrapolating the GOES curve, it was estimated to be X28. Later analysis of the ionospheric effects suggested increasing this estimate to X45. This event produced the first clear evidence of a new spectral component above 100 GHz.
Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20), October 28, 2003 (X17.2 and 10), September 7, 2005 (X17), February 17, 2011 (X2), August 9, 2011 (X6.9), March 7, 2012 (X5.4), July 6, 2012 (X1.1). On July 6, 2012, a solar storm hit just after midnight UK time, when an X1.1 solar flare fired out of the AR1515 sunspot. Another X1.4 solar flare from AR 1520 region of the Sun, second in the week, reached the Earth on July 15, 2012 with a geomagnetic storm of G1–G2 level. A X1.8-class flare was recorded on October 24, 2012. There has been major solar flare activity in early 2013, notably within a 48-hour period starting on May 12, 2013, a total of four X-class solar flares were emitted ranging from an X1.2 and upwards of an X3.2, the latter of which was one of the largest year 2013 flares. Departing sunspot complex AR2035-AR2046 erupted on April 25, 2014 at 0032 UT, producing a strong X1.3-class solar flare and an HF communications blackout on the dayside of Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the explosion."
Note, however, that the solar flares from preceding solar maximum were far more energetic than those currently. Further, wikipedia is also clear that the largest flare observed was the September 1, 1859 Carrington event, a flare so large it was visible to the naked eye.
Given this, Echo_Alpha_Zulu's claims are at best, unsupported, and likely false. Absent his citing and linking to a credible source for this claim, I think we should regard it, as so many others of his claims, as so much spindrift.
(Note: I say "possibly" because it is not yet certain we have reached the maximum.)
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nigelj at 10:13 AM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
Daniel Mocsny @3
I was also thinking that the global warming has stopped argument may be getting weak. I won't speculate on temperatures in the coming decade, but basically the staircase pattern has become more clear over time, and can't disguise an obvious longer term increasing trend.
However there are many other zombie arguments with no sign of them stopping. There are powerful vested interests at work related to this climate issue.
"The only way to shrink emissions fast enough to avoid cooking civilization - since we've left it for so long now - is to shrink the economy."
You offer no evidence of this. The Stern Report found it is possible to stop dangerous climate change at the cost of 1.5% of global gdp per year. This equates very approximately to 1.5% of our incomes, so is not onerous, and theres no evidence this would shrink the output of the economy. Even a higher figure than 1.5% is something most people could live with, and poor people could be compensated.
Remember the cost of renewable electricity has fallen a lot since the Stern Report.
It is also possible to stop dangerous climate change without drastic changes to air travel, provided other measures are comprehensive. Read the various research on the issue such as the Stern Report.
Greed and selfishness is a part of the issue, but like most of your comments you stop with this considerable simplification and also offer no solutions. Nobody wants to sacrifice a plane trip for a very small change to emissions, thinking they may be the only person who does this, and that it won't make much difference. It would possibly be ethically right to stop flying but it's not entirely logical. This is why it's important to have things like carbon taxes that put the pressure on people bt using a price signal.
It has been pointed out to you by several people now that this is not all about personal choices or morality. Of course we all want people to take climate change seriously and alter their lifestyles or "do the right thing" without coercion, but in the real world carbon taxes make plenty of sense. And only governments can promote renewable electricity and this then makes electric cars a more viable option.
I don't think you are listening to what people say.
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rkrolph at 09:57 AM on 8 January 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1
Apparently, Judith Curry has retired. The interview in the article was interesting. On one hand, she thinks scientists are overstating the human effect on global warming, and then admits they may be right, in which case the Paris Agreement falls way short of what would be necessary to effectively change anything. She doesn't then say what should be done. Seems a bit strange to me.
Sorry if the link is not working.
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798
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Daniel Mocsny at 09:53 AM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
The jobs issue promises to get worse going forward. I'm reading the book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. It is basically 350 pages elaborating on the themes that also appear briefly in the YouTube video, Humans Need Not Apply.
Trump got elected partly by hammering on voter fears of job insecurity, although Trump, being either misinformed or a liar, blamed the problem solely on global trade, regulation, and outsourcing. Technological progress and right-wing policies have also played critical roles in hollowing out the middle class and wiping out well-paying manufacturing jobs. People who are gainfully employed are often anxious, because a surprising number of people even in wealthy countries are in financial distress. See the book: Financially Stupid People Are Everywhere: Don't Be One Of Them and the Neal Gabler article: The Secret Shame of Middle-Class Americans. Gabler writes: "Nearly half of Americans would have trouble finding $400 to pay for an emergency. I’m one of them."
Rise of the Robots paints a grim picture of increasingly capable robots and narrow-AI software systems wiping out category after category of jobs that were previously beyond the reach of automation. Switching to a green economy doesn't really address this beyond perhaps delaying job losses for a few years. Robots are just as happy to take a clean job as a dirty job, and perform it at a fraction of the cost of a human worker.
What's the political landscape going to look like in a future when unemployment hits 50%? Even before the problem becomes a crisis, a demagogue like Trump can get elected by playing on just a small version of the fear. To get people to care about the climate, we have to move that concern up their list of priorities. If they are in fear of losing their jobs, incomes, homes, etc., it's hard to see people focusing on much else.
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Daniel Mocsny at 09:21 AM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
We might see a "global warming stopped in 2016" denier argument, but maybe only if we get another 10-year or longer pause in surface warming. The argument worked better the first time around, since before 1998 the global warming argument was fairly new. Public awareness of climate change was still new enough in the 2000s that people didn't have a memory of an earlier version of the denier argument that had been destroyed in 1998. (Such as "warming stopped in 1988" or whatever the previous hot outlying year was.)
We might not get another 10-year pause in the near future. The odds went down with Trump getting elected. If positive feedbacks start kicking in, the base rate of warming might increase, shortening the time before the trend overrides short-term noise.
Plus we have many other indicators of warming that aren't subject to similar pauses, such as sea level rise. Every year the king tides along America's east coast get higher. Flooding under a clear sky is pretty definitive, since there's nothing abstract or relying on complex models about it. Anybody can see that the familiar road, pier, seawall, etc. that people built to stay above water is now routinely getting submerged in fine weather.
Eventually the deniers will quit trying to deny on the basis of any scientifically testable claim - because they can't, and they don't need to. They'll retreat to their last and insurmountable line of defense: jobs.
Despite the hypothetical promise of green jobs, we still have an 85% fossil fueled economy. The only way to shrink emissions fast enough to avoid cooking civilization - since we've left it for so long now - is to shrink the economy. This is easy to see living on your carbon fair share (the globally equitable individual greenhouse gas emission allowance), or less than two tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. You just can't buy most of the stuff you see advertised. You'll save gobs of money - fixing the climate is not "expensive", but if everybody does this then most of the economy goes poof. For starters, there can't be any flying. A single jet flight can blow your entire carbon allowance for the year, leaving nothing for, say, eating food. Since the overwhelming bulk of flying is unnecessary, the first tiny measure of our willingness to take climate change seriously is to shut down all the airports. If we won't even take that first baby step, then we're just marking days off the calendar on our way to cooking civilization into nonexistence.
People are greedy and selfish. That's why the climate gets destroyed. If selfish people could get more of what they want by not destroying the climate, then they wouldn't destroy it. It's easy to focus on explicit deniers, but the climate gets just as destroyed by the person who pays lip service to scientific reality and then jets off to the holiday spot or scientific conference anyway.
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Doug Bostrom at 09:20 AM on 8 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
A lot of "maybe" there, KGB. Maybe we're all living in a simulation and somebody will tweak our code, fix everything.
"Maybe" doesn't apply when you're standing on the smooth spot where your home was, or skimming sediment out of the living room. Try "maybe I'll sleep on my wet, fungus-ridden mattress." Does it sound appealing? Maybe not.
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nigelj at 06:26 AM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
The global warming zombie myths persist. This is partly because plenty of people spend most of their time on facebook, or reading about Kim Kardashian, as opposed to reading something informative.
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william5331 at 03:33 AM on 8 January 2017Prepare for reanimation of the zombie myth ‘no global warming since 2016’
With the crazy ice behaviour this year, there is more than a reasonable chance that the coming northern hemisphere summer will see unprecidented ice melt and hence unprecidented world heat gain as the Arctic ocean turns into a giant heat collector. If so, the step function may turn into an exponential function. While this will be great for shooting down the deniers, it is a hollow victory if we have now exceeded one of the coming cascade of tipping points. We can all stand together in the ever warming pot like frogs, croaking, We told you so. The one necessary condition to sort out this CF we find ourselves in is to get vested interest money out of polics. Without that we are pushing a huge pile of the brown stuff up hill with a spoon.
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gws at 02:13 AM on 8 January 2017It's cosmic rays
It may be useful to add that the CERN group has long since dropped the argument that cosmic rays affect climate. Their latest paper (with Kirkby a co-author) in Science summarizes (abstract):
"... A considerable fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied, variations in cosmic ray intensity do not appreciably affect climate through nucleation in the present-day atmosphere."
... and that position has been in place for some time.
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michael sweet at 22:48 PM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
KGB,
All data has bias. Scientists work hard to collect the best data possible and then they review the data carefully to find any new biases that appear. There was never a "mistake" in this data. New data aways has to be compared with old to ensure it is exactly the same. In this case there was a very small difference. Since the difference was small it took some time to measure and correct it.
In this case, new bouys were put in place to monitor sea surface temperatures. iIt was known that parts of the ocean were not being monitored as well as could be done by the old method. The new data stream was added to the existing data stream. The old data was primarily from ships. The data was carefully compared when it was obtained and was very similar, so they were just added. After the passage of 15-20 years, much more data was collected. This data was carefully checked and a very small adjustment was made to the record. The old record was not bad but it turned out that the bouy data was very slightly colder than the ship data. It was determined that the ship data was slightly warmer than the ocean really was. Data sets are updated like this all the time. Usually no-one notices these changes because the data for surface temperature is so good that the adjustments are very small.
The reason that there has been so much talk about this particular update is because it contributes to the argument that there was never a "haitus" in global temperature rise. Tamino (who is a very good statistician) and many others have shown that there was never a "Haitus" in the original data set. The update makes Tamino's argument stronger, but the old data set never really showed a haitus in AGW anyway. Deniers complain because their incorrect argument has been affected by this change. They hope people will disregard all the data because of this minor update.
Scientists know that there remain minor issues with their data sets. They continue to review them and correct them. The corrections to the surface data set (the data set we are discussing) have been very small since around 1990. If you use the raw data (which is available on the internet) the increase in temperature is greater than using the corrected data. You reach the same conclusion. There was never a "haitus" in either data set.
We always have to use the data we have. Would you prefer to not correct for known issues in the collection of the data? Go with the raw data which shows much more warming. Scientists try to use the best corrections possible and keep in mind that there might still be some issues.
For comparison, major changes in the satallite data sets are made all the time. Deniers claim these data sets are better to use because they are noisier and it is harder to clearly show the warming.
Keep reading here and you will learn more about how to interpret data sets in the real world. Data is never perfect, but the surface temperature data set is very solid and has not had major changes for decades.
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Tom Curtis at 21:27 PM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo_Alpha_Zulu, I have discussed your views on cosmic rays on a more appropriate thread. I also recommend you read the advanced version of the main article on that thread, in addition to the first link by Tom Dalton @11.
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Tom Curtis at 21:21 PM on 7 January 2017It's cosmic rays
Elsewhere Echo_Alpha_Zulu is arguing that cosmic rays "...play more of a role in climate than anything else". He attributes that view to unnamed "CERN scientists", and provides no links or citations so we can confirm that that is indeed what "CERN scientists" are saying. Curiously Echo_Alpha_Zulu says, "I am a real scientist I study the data itself. I dont rely on some 'Expert' to interpret the data for me". Despite this claim, he provided no relevant evidence with regard to cosmic rays, instead rellying on the authority of "experts" who are carefully kept of page and uncited.
Echo_Alpha_Zulu may consider that characterization unfair, given that he linked to this graph, which is a truncated version of Figure 1 from Kirkby (2008):
However, that graph shows nothing interesting because, the temperature proxies do not agree among themselves about the temperature pattern over the last 1000 years, let alone with the cosmic ray proxies.
That lack of correlation can be seen in modern records where, if the theory had any substance, the more accurate records should make the connection obvious. Instead, taking the montly values of the OULU neutron record and the Berkeley Earth Land Ocean Temperature Index, a regression analysis shows a positive trend of 7.4 (+/- 6) x 10^-5 C/(Count/Min). That is the opposite of the negative trend predicted by the theory. Worse, the correlation is just 0.097 with an R^2 of 0.009 indicating cosmic rays to be a negligible causal factor with regard to global temperatures, if relevant at all.
It becomes a little more interesting when we look at the timeseries of the BEST LOTI and the inverted OULU Neutron count:
Here we see that where there may have been some slight justification for the theory in data up to circa1995 (Regression: -1.9 (+/-0.47) x 10^-4; correlation: -0.388; R^2: 0.15), thereafter temperature continues to increase steadilly while the inverted cosmic ray count plummets. The complete breakdown of the relationship post 1995 shows the weak statistical relationship apparent beforehand to have been largely coincidental.A simple linear regression is not the only test that could be applied to the data, but no theory which claims cosmic rays "...play more of a role in climate than anything else" survives the data shown. At best, the relationship is that found by Tsonis et al (2015), who write:
"Our results suggest weak to moderate coupling between CR and year-to-year changes of GT. They resonate with the physical and chemical evidence emerging from laboratory studies suggesting a theoretical dynamic link between galactic CR and GT. However, we find that the realized effect is modest at best, and only recoverable when the secular trend in GT is removed (by first-differencing). Thus, it is important to stress that they do not suggest that CR influences can explain global warming and should not be misinterpreted as being in conflict with the IPCC. Indeed, the opposite is true: we show specifically that CR cannot explain secular warming, a trend that the consensus attributes to anthropogenic forcing. Nonetheless, the results verify the presence of a nontraditional forcing in the climate system, an effect that represents another interesting piece of the puzzle in our understanding of factors influencing climate variability."
(My emphasis)
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KGB at 18:03 PM on 7 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
humans fear factor, everyone just seems take it for granted that nothing can change, what would cause a ice age, if earth is warming don't the core warm also? Maybe a super volcano soon, maybe someone will make a simple spray released from aircraft that break CO2 down, maybe we could just vent it into space just run some long pipes lol
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KGB at 17:17 PM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
You state that the old data has a cold bias so scientists data was off, how could the scientific community make this mistake and how are we suppose to know they haven't made another mistake?
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Glenn Tamblyn at 15:13 PM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo_Alpha_Zulu
Aside from generally following Tom Dayton's advice and looking at the various rebuttals, here is some actual data relating to your claim about volanoes and CO2. From the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases, run by the Japanese Meteorological Agency here.
Measurements of CO2 from Cape Grim in Tasmania. 1992 was one of the biggest volcanic eruptions this century - Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines.
Spot the huge volcanic spike EOZ? No trace, nada of a volcanic component. -
nigelj at 06:05 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo Alpha Zulu @7 says:
"According to borehole samples collected from Greenland only temperature anomolies still have not increased to what they were 2000 years ago. I am not invalidating your data as it is correct, it is just misleading."
Echo, Greenland is just one place, and could be an anomaly as different places change at different rates. You have to look at a wide selection of countries, and reach an average. Many studies of the medieval warm period do this, and find it was a weak event, eg Briffa, Esper, Jones. Unfortunately it is your post that is misleading.
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Tom Dayton at 05:34 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, for global temperatures extending far earlier than the previous 2,000 years, see the post on "the wheelchair" graph.
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Tom Dayton at 05:16 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, for information about the Sun's role in recent warming (not just how a grand solar minimum would affect temperature), see the post about that--Basic, then Intermediate, then Advanced tabbed panes. Comment on that topic there, not here.
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Tom Dayton at 05:11 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, you wrote "CERN found that cosmic rays play more of a roll [sic] in climate than anything else."
You are incorrect. See the post about that, both Basic and Intermediate tabbed panes. For more thorough and more up to date information about cosmic rays' influence on climate (not just CERN results in particular), see the Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced tabbed panes on the post about that. And if you want to discuss those topics, do so in the comments on those posts, not this one.
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Tom Dayton at 05:04 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, you wrote "A single major Volcanic eruption can put more CO2 and other "greenhouse gasses" into the atmosphere than humanity has done it's entire existance this is a fact."
But no, that is not a fact, it is a myth. See the post about that (Basic tabbed pane, then Intermediate one), and if you want to comment on that topic, do so there, not here.
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Tom Dayton at 05:01 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, you wrote "Just like the upcoming mini ice age....The sun is now just exiting one of the most violent maximums ever recorded in history. Fewer sun spots but the amount of energy released from CME's and solar flares was something we have never seen. Now we are entering a solar minimum. Which is expected to be one of the weakest since the maunder minimum or last mini ice age."
In fact, the amount of cooling that would result even if there is a reduction in solar output similar to that of the Maunder Minimum would be zero--no cooling, because the rise in warming from greenhouse gases would swamp the cooling from lower insulation. All it would do is temporarily and slightly reduce the rate of warming. See the post on the effect of a grand solar minimum. If you want to discuss that topic, do so in the comments on that post where it is on topic, not this one.
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Tom Dayton at 04:56 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo, you wrote "I will ask you to provide us with a chart of temperature records over the past 2000 years." Okay--see the post on the Medieval Warm Period. After you read the Basic tabbed pane, read the Intermediate one. For more information about the PAGES 2K study that is cited and graphed there, see a post on that. If you want to discuss those topics, do so in the comments on those or similar posts, where your comments will be on topic.
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Echo_Alpha_Zulu at 02:47 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
First off let me start off by saying this graph was provided by the scientists at CERN. Im not invalidating your data because it is correct. According to borehole samples collected from Greenland only temperature anomolies still have not increased to what they were 2000 years ago. I am not invalidating your data as it is correct it is just misleading. Even the past 400 years temperatures have been at a steady incline. I do not argue that. The point I am making is that this warming period has little to do with us. It would have happened even if humanity didnt exist. Just like the upcoming mini ice age. There are multiple naturalally occuring events that directly impact our climate. The sun, Cosmic Rays, Volcanic and seismic activity and Pole instability. A single major Volcanic eruption can put more CO2 and other "greenhouse gasses" into the atmosphere than humanity has done it's entire existance this is a fact. The sun is now just exiting one of the most violent maximums ever recorded in history. Fewer sun spots but the amount of energy released from CME's and solar flares was something we have never seen. Now we are entering a solar minimum. Which is expected to be one of the weakest since the maunder minimum or last mini ice age.
Prior to the maunder minumim we see an increase in Volcanic activity paired with a decrease in solar activity. This is the exact scenario we are facing now.
Nothing I said was contradictary. I have done a significant amount of research on the topic and my data even though provided by CERN is apparently not satisfactory so I will ask you to provide us with a chart of temperature records over the past 2000 years. This way you can not blame me for not having peer reviewed material. I will be more than happy to elaborate on any of the points I just made.Moderator Response:[JH] The many assertions contined in your post lack proper references and supporting documentation. Your personal beliefs carry little weight on this site.
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Tom Curtis at 01:31 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Echo_Alpha_Zulu @4 claims, "I am a real scientist I study the data itself"; but he does not present us with this data, only a graph from a non-peer reviewed paper from 2008. Of that graph he says, "This is a link showing the data for the past 2000 years", but the data only covers the period 1000 to 2000 AD, ie, the last one thousand years, not the last 2000 as he would have it.
Further, on the basis of that graph, he then claims, "We have not even reached a warming point that we were at 2000 years ago". The graph, however, compares three proxy series to the instrumental record (red), and of those three series, the most recent date on the instrumental series is greater than any value over the last 1000 years. His claim is only valid, therefore, if the strictly regional Greenland ice sheet data gives a better presentation of hemispheric temperatures than do proxies from across the hemisphere. What is worse, the instrumental series used (HadCRU Nothern Hemisphere) shows an anomaly of 1.041 C for 2016, with all annual anomalies from 2001 forward being 0.554 C or higher. That is, for the last 16 years NH temperatures have been 0.2 C or more higher than the greenland ice core data peak around 1000 AD. Indeed, you have to go back 20 years to 1996 to get a NH temperature as low as the peak shown by the Greenland data. So when Echo_Alpha_Zulu says "We have not even reached a warming point that we were at 2000 years ago" he is contradicting the data he presents.
Of course, he may well not be aware of that, given that he bases his analysis on eyeballing graphs rather than the actual data itself.
Of couse, a real scientist, ie, somebody with an advanced degree in science who works professionally in the field, and actively publishes in the literature, would know not to make that mistake. Echo_Alpha_Zulu's claim to be a "real scientist" is therefore revealed as a falsehood used (ironically) to plump up his authority lest we should look at the data ourselves.
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Echo_Alpha_Zulu at 00:33 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
Zeke, Kevin this is why your charts only go back the past 20 years. Because thats the only way your "Evidence" shows any credibility at all. Amateurs
Moderator Response:[JH] Inflamatory statements of deception snipped.
You are already on the cusp of relinquishing your privilege of posting on this website. Three strikes and you are out.
Warning #2
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Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Echo_Alpha_Zulu at 00:30 AM on 7 January 2017NOAA was right: we have been underestimating warming
The earth is warming but its about to stop and start cooling. Actual science suggests that earth is headed for a mini ice age. CERN found that cosmic rays play more of a roll in climate than anything else. The sun was at its maximum and is now entering the minimum. Volcanic activity is higher than it ever has been.
https://regmedia.co.uk/2009/11/16/sven_northernhemi.jpg
This is a link showing the data for the past 2000 years. We have not even reached a warming point that we were at 2000 years ago. Humans had 0 effect on climate then. If you are going to promote global warming you need to think of better lies than that. I am a real scientist I study the data itself. I dont rely on some 'Expert' to interpret the data for me.
Moderator Response:[JH] Link activated. Inflamatory accusation of deception snipped.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Rob Honeycutt at 14:06 PM on 6 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
Glenn... Totally right. And not only that, often companies, and even entire industries, become resistant to change. Keeping things the same is easy. Changing is hard. The auto industry is a perfect example.
Back in the 1970's the US auto industry would swear up and down, and until the cows came home, that "Americans love big cars!" Truth was, they couldn't efficiently produce a small car profitably. But rather than try to learn how they merely relied on this "big cars" rhetoric.
The Japanese auto companies did figure out how to make small cars efficiently and as a result they ate the US auto industry's lunch.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 11:55 AM on 6 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
Daniel Mocsny
"even though the goal of all the high-level actions is to nudge individuals to burn less fossil fuel"
I disagree somewhat. That is one of the goals. Individual changes contribute, but there are limits to what an individual can do to burn less. Smaller car, better insulated house, walk more etc. But they can't individually drive the bigger changes, and certainly not quickly.
Take for example their car. They can buy a smaller car, they maybe can buy a more fuel efficient car. But the best they can do is buy the best that is available on the market. If car companies aren't investing in the design of seriously more efficient cars, the consumer can't buy them. So taxes and other policies need to pressure the companies as much as targeting consumers. So too electricity generation, will a utility build a coal plant, a gas plant or a wind farm. Its all electrons to the consumer.
Policy is aimed at a mix of influencing individuals and influencing organisations and companies. And a broader range of policies can be employed against the organisations than individuals. -
Tom Curtis at 11:18 AM on 6 January 2017Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 7
Daniel Mocsny @18, one point you are missing is that the price of an item gives a signal as to the amount of resources, including energy and labour resources, used in manufacturing the item. Currently that signal does not include any information about carbon pollution generated by the item. A carbon tax changes that. It means that, all else being equal, an equivalent product with a lower price also generates a lower carbon foot print.
Given the complexity of the manufactoring process of most modern items; and the contradictory claims made about what goes into their manufacture; it takes substantial research to determine which of two otherwise equivalent products has the lower carbon footprint. You need to research the sources of material, transport methods and distances, energy mix at point of manufacture, energy source at point of production of raw materials, and so on. These problems apply even if you are not avaricious, and own relatively few goods. They are excacerbated in that manufacturers often try to conceal this data so as to avoid being excluded from consideration by ethical purchasers.
A carbon tax, however, would introduce a signal on carbon production in manufacture and transport that could not be concealed. It would be imperfect because of other price inputs, but it would be there. It follows that a carbon tax is helpful for those who are interested in doing the right thing ethically. Indeed, even if 100% of consumers were determined to act ethically, a carbon tax would still be a good thing. That it would also shape the behaviour of those who had no interest in ethical consumption is a bonus.
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timeforarks at 10:29 AM on 6 January 2017As Seas Rise, Miami Development Continues Unabated
Developers in South Fla are already having trouble with financing coastal development with out requiring overly large pre-construction down payments ! The Federal Flood Insurance is already deep in debt and only meeting current needs by using private reinsurance ! These private rates are rapidly increasing and I believe the Fed Ins is up for renewal this year and they had a hard time passing the previous legislation ! Our Coastal Condo dropped its flood ins policy last year due to cost increase ! The Coastal Cities tax base are going to crash as values drop and these properties become tax liabilitys !
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