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JWRebel at 23:55 PM on 18 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
Sauerj @4: The problem with conservative types is that they reject a revenue neutral carbon tax as one more Washington trick to increasing the regulatory and tax burden, and to decide what happens to your income and spending. It will be difficult to think of a strategy to change this perception which has been assiduously inculcated by politicians and the media since Jimmy Carter.
It is important to realize that for well-intentioned conservatives, loyalty is their strongest value, and it is possible to leverage this in favor of renewable practices. Demeaning them, criticizing them for being backwards or anti-science, etcetc., will not sway them but harden them. However if you can frame it in terms of loyalty to future generations and the fertility of the earth/creation, not squandering the "farm" that nature/God has given as an inheritance, it is possible to create strong allies — if you can persuade them. If the economics of local sustainable energy makes sense, conservatives (with the exception of the zombie army of the captive corporate lobby) will naturally favor local self-reliance over centralized coporate grid dependance. Above all, it is important not to marry climate change mitigation to other left-wing/progressive causes or political color — that will trigger a whole host of active loyalty conflicts.
Conservatives are more likely to be persuaded by examples of credentialed conservatives (or the pope, or other leaders) than by scientific facts. Like the fact that the US Air Force was forced to include the basics of infra-red re-radiation in their heat-seeking missile technology to avoid being blinded. Or that Navy admirals are already anticipating on the likely effects. Most ordinary people find it difficult to evaluate reams of scientific facts against competing disinformation claims that are regularly fed them by the media. For conservatives it will be very important to establish which sources of competing claims in the public sphere are more trustworthy: To this end it is very important to give maximum coverage to how co-opted and error-prone most Anglo-Saxon disinformation "experts" are, and how little money or ulterior motive is actually driving frontier scientific inquiry by basically humble, ordinary, plodding science researchers who are being true/loyal to the facts thrust upon them. It is therefore incumbent on experts in the field to address this "political" divide continually, especially since most are naturally geared towards sticking to the scientific discourse and staying out of political frays and other such "BS".
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John Hartz at 23:53 PM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
citizenschallenge: Your posts of yesterday have been deleted because the SkS website is not an appropriate forum for creating a political movement to prevent Donald Trump's "official" election by the US Electoral College. In that regard, your posts were "off topic" and therefore in violation of the SkS Comments Policy.
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Alexandre at 21:24 PM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
What if the man actually IS is what he said he was all along?
I wonder if the voters considered the most obvious possibility.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please use bold font to highlight words, not all-caps.
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nigelj at 09:17 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Chriskoz @3, I agree that the media failed America. I live in another country, but I did follow the whole thing, and all I heard about was emails, sexual material, and nothing much on policies or climate change. This is pandering to the lowest common denominator and sensationalism. If you feed garbage into the public, garbage will come out in the way of their voting behaviour.
As to why Clinton lost, there are many reasons. However Clinton went into the election hobbled over the email thing. I don’t think she has done anything sinister, but it seems odd to me the Democrats would risk promoting her as a candidate when there were clearly plenty of other people.
Trump has a silver tongue like a clever used car salesman, and monopolised on some genuine discontent in America with free trade, and various elites, however Trumps policies are very poor quality. This sort of populist dogma will end in tears for everyone.
Regarding The EPA, it’s chilling that Trump has appointed such an obvious and strong climate sceptic and apparent libertarian as Myron Ebell. This is a scorched earth policy which shows Trump wants to neutralise the EPA as much as he can. There’s no ambiguity or softening here, he has declared war on science, or any science he doesn’t like.
Trump is surrounding himself entirely with yes men (and the odd token yes woman) and people of almost identical extreme right wing views. We now have severe group think. Trump is like a quasi dictator in charge of America, who through force of personality is bending everything to his will. Americas system has so called checks and balances, but the Republicans have all branches of government, and soon to have a dominance of their preferred Judges on the Supreme Court, so I dont see any checks or balances.
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shoyemore at 08:56 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
chriskoz,
What was astonishing about that Muslim lady was her criticism that Obama's social programs were insufficient to her needs. She was seemingly not aware that Trump's Congressional Republicans plan to gut those same programs, and Trump made not a single promise to defend them. She could not afford Obamacare, but under Trump she will even lose that aspiration to have health insurance, as there will be no program at all - at least that is what he said during the campaign.
She seemed a very good example of a general electorate who vote from their intuitions or heuristics - fast thinking, in other words, instead of the slow thinking where the policies of both candidates are rationally evaluated. The last is the ideal of the electorate in a democracy, which exists nowhere.
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John Hartz at 08:39 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
chriskoz:
Here's another perspective on why many voters flocked to Trump.
Trump’s anti-intelligentsia revolution, Op-ed by Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg View, Nov 14, 2016
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Lionel A at 08:36 AM on 18 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
Monckton has been writing silly things about John Abraham, amongst other things, below that Carbon Brief article.
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chriskoz at 08:16 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
John's resentment of US president elect (especially his final conclusion, snipped here, that you find in the Guardian) is no dobt shared by all of us. I resent this president and his office more than John does, up to the point that I think he does not deserve to be called by name (T-word, is in my household a forbidden swear word, just like N-word) and I extend that practice to my posts on SkS.
But contrary to John, I have no illusion that the new president be "contrarian to the contrarians" only to be even more disappointed later. Instead I concentrate on the reasons behind such absurd election results: what happened to the US voters that they elected the most unimaginable clown that ever existed? This outcome did not come from "deplorables" (eg. white supremacits such as KKK), these are marginal poeple. The outcome came from average decent people but blind GOP supporters and from DEM supporters who turned away from Clinton for various reasons. Here is a confession from such an average voter that I cite after smh:
I'm a Muslim, a woman and an immigrant. I voted for Trump
This woman is from Muslim Reform Movement, and voted unreasonably, because he didn't like Clinton's dealings with Arab states and her lack of rejection of radical Islamism. Well, as muslim reformist, she should have listened to someone like Sam Harris, and unreasonably, she didn't but that aspect is not to be discussed on SkS. The important aspect is that she said she accepts climate science and is concerned about AGW but clearly voted irresponsibly against her own concerns here.
That should tell us that voters still place AGW very low in their priority list. Concerns like muslim reformation, lost emails, or other petty concerns are higher than the most important issue facing policy makers in this century. Where was the media whose job was tohighlight it during the campain? They concentrated on "pussy bus" instead. Although itself disqualifying the actors (including Bush) of that comedy from any public office, the media should cut the show short with the statement: such clowns are unable to grasp any serious issues like e.g. AGW.
The media failed us. Our job is to continue remind voters to sort their priorities according to the common good, not the petty concerns, in the next election to eliminate the root of the problem we're in.
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nigelj at 08:02 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
I'm fast losing hope as well. Remember half the population have a limited education, and I would say they figure high in Trumps supporters, and you only need to look at the demographics and groups who supported him. And they are preyed on by ignoramuses like Rush Limbaugh, and will be exploited, fooled, and walked all over by people who actually weild power in Congress.
Trump and the Republicans are retreating into a giant intellectual, economic, and cultural bubble. They have become massively defensive, and are hunkering down. Yes globalisation has hurt some groups, but they are selecting exactly the wrong mindset and responses.
By flooding their ranks with such same minded people, like the appointment of Myron Ebell, they will generate the most destructive form of group think imaginable. Braver and smarter people ensure they have a range of advice.
Remember Trump is a business person, and is used to abrupt decisions and risk taking. This is part of the business ethic, but Trump does it on largely gut instinct and is taking a huge risk with the climate and also his protectionist trade policies.
The devil is in the detail, and I can see from his rhetoric that he is definitely incorrect on many details, crucially important details, so the sum of the parts will be a disaster. Trumps business history came close to bankruptcy several times. America, what have you done electing this guy?
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nigelj at 07:28 AM on 18 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
Sauerj @4, everything you say makes plenty of sense. Part of me wants to take that optimistic view as well. However as you say lot of this issue depends on what the world says, and the pressure they put on America.
And it all depends on how people advise Donald Trump to do better on climate change. I would say do a lot of ego stroking and flattery because Trump has the sort of personality that responds to that. However add a bit of shouting at him as well, because he wont respect people who are timid. This guy has to be handled properly.
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scaddenp at 06:52 AM on 18 November 2016Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Lets not get into handwavy arguments. The relevant diagram is already on this thread here. Long term burial of carbon by plants etc takes place at rate about 0.2Pg C per year. Emissions from fossils fuels and land use change are about 9Pg C per year.
Not to mention the obvious fact that CO2 levels in the atmosphere are rising, and that the isotopic composition of CO2 in atmosphere is consistent with addition coming from FF.
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sailingfree at 02:10 AM on 18 November 2016Trump begins filling environmental posts with clowns
Upon reading and listening to the reasons that Trump's supporters give for backing him, I have lost all hope.
His supporters brains have been hijacked by Breitbart, Limaugh, and Fox. When things get bad, those "newscasters" will find a way to blame it all on Obama. Eight more years?
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sauerj at 02:04 AM on 18 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
I am hopeful (naively) that with the GOP now fully 'on the hook' for the path forward that they will step back from their political obstructionism, re-calibrate their priorities and seriously evaluate the gamut of carbon cessation policy options so to unbiasly work out the best strategy for the most carbon emission reductions (nationally & globally), the least GDP-impact & the most equitable. An optium path that considers all 3 constraints (or more if required).
Before, acceptance of CC & then CC action (via executive order type policies) was a politized gridlock. That political excuse (that political football) has now been taken away from the GOP. Maybe those in their ranks who aspire to true conservatism (a true sense of sustainability) & a true sense of fair skepticism can persuade the rest of the GOP to step back, and re-calibrate its old ways. This re-calibration might make them think about CC strategy like a business problem, with constraints as follows: 1) Meet set carbon reduction goals, 2) Do so in the least economic burdensome & most equitable way as possible, and 3) Assist the global nations (especially the highest emitters) to do the same through technology sharing & funding (if necessary).
What is missing from this is the economic driving force to push toward the best solutions. Why? Because the cost of FF's today does not include the future cost of tomorrow's CC impacts. We are allowed to litter CO2 to the atmosphere for free. Because of this, wrong business decisions (based on cost vs return evaluations) are being made everyday all over the world by everyone. When the cost of energy is wrong, no one can escape these wrong decisions. Once the future cost of FF's is put into this price (on a ramped slope set so that technology development can keep up w/ demand), sustainable energies will start to florish, along with improvements in efficiency and reductions of discretionary & other wasteful consumption practices (those which provide no improvement to the quality of life). All fueled by the switch-over of investor capital, thus spurring organic entrepreneurship, technological ingenuity & industrial drive. Ultimately, the best, most sustainable solutions will become the most profitable, and therefore the most pursued.
Once the cost of unsustainability is included in the consumption of energy (increasly so until the use of FF's is eventually reduced to sustainable rates), then carbon cessation will start to take care of itself, on the best solution path possible. Of course, like today, business regulations will still be required to maintain just & equitable business practices (this is a piece of the policy negotiations but should not stalmate all movement toward significant and abtainable reductions in carbon emissions). A revenue-neutral carbon tax (fee & dividend, or an equitable offsetting of state sales tax, etc) is a good way to insert the future cost of FF's into their price. Once done (& ramped up at a rate that businesses would use in their capital plans), then business decisions will move away from today's wrong ones toward the right (sustainable) ones.
I am hopefully (again naively) that now that the GOP has the entire football and that some in the ranks are reasonable and with growing political & economic pressures from the rest of the world, that those in power will have a serious re-think, re-calibration on this whole issue. I am not sure that pressure from within their ranks is enough, but pressure from the rest of the world might cause them to totally re-think their strategy.
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ubrew12 at 00:48 AM on 18 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
The globe affected by global warming is mostly not the United States. Yet one country has, more than any other, caused this calamity: the United States. I should think people around the World are getting royally steamed over America's repeated intransigence. I know my own country: if you're not hitting someone in his pocketbook, he can't hear you.
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joepitts1 at 23:30 PM on 17 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
Mark has written an exceptionally insightful summary of where we stand. However, he does not address the impact of 4-years of inaction and back sliding on the part of the U.S. As I write this comment from SW Missouri at 7:30 AM on November 17 the outside temperature is 60 degrees F and the trees in my yard still have green leaves on them. Climate change is moving much more quickly than the models have predicted. Measurable action on the part of the U.S. must be implemented yesterday.
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SirCharles at 18:30 PM on 17 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
The International Energy Agency warned that reaching the ambitious targets set forth by last year’s global climate change accord would be next to impossible => Paris Climate Deal Is Too Weak to Meet Goals, Report Finds
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SirCharles at 18:21 PM on 17 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
@Eric Grimsrud
I have no time for wait and see.
Trump appointed Steve Bannon – the former chairman of Breitbart, the far-right media outlet that peddles conspiracy theories as news and advances white nationalism – as White House Chief Strategist and his Senior Counselor. Trump's top science advisor is climate change denier Myron Ebell. Mother Jones has an article here => Trump's Top Environmental Adviser Says Pesticides Aren't Bad for You
These are guys with a long history of science denial. Wait and see is not an option. Wait and see was the tenor when Hitler gained power some 80 years ago...
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:08 PM on 17 November 2016Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
Mochan
Nope. More like 100's of millions of years ago. Plants removed vast amounts of carbon over huge timescales and it has been locked away ever since. Plants today work on a carbon cycle that doesn't include that sequestered ancient CO2. So adding this carbon from long ago is disrupting the balance of that system. -
Mochan at 15:55 PM on 17 November 2016Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
Sorry, I have two eyes, and the data clearly shows me it's closer to Scenario C, not Scenario B.
Moderator Response:[PS] It is not clear to me that you have read the article that carefully. Read the comment policy- you are risking sloganeering .Scenario B is about an emission scenario. Hansen considered what would happen for 3 different emission scenarios. What we actually emitted is closer to Scenario B, so should compare his prediction for scenario B to actual temperatures for B. His prediction is too high for reasons the articles discusses.
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Mochan at 15:53 PM on 17 November 2016Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup
This rebuttal is missing something. It says that people arguing that breathing causes CO2 are missing the other half of the cycle.
By that very same logic, those who are saying we should cut down on fossil fuel use are missing the other half of the cycle — those plants that created the fossil fuels also took that CO2 out of the atmosphere hundreds of thousands of years ago. This is all a cycle and if it happens, it happens. You can't stop it.
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chriskoz at 13:18 PM on 17 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
scaddenp@14,
Indeed, note how the tip of the average green curve just "touches" the freezing blue line in summertime, which indicates how sensitive this region is changes in ice accumulation/melting in response to even small warming that shifts the green curve up and down. The simulation of such shifts (or rather changes in green curve in response to Milankovic forcings) can lead the explanation of iceage cycles. But with that model in mind, the departure of red line from green line in wintertime does not make any difference to arctic ice stability as long as it stays below freezing. The relevant summertime part or red curve follows green curve closely. So I don't understand what's a big buzz in this mistery, policy violating bozzza@112 post.
And above all, I don't understande how this graph is relevant to the topic at hand about demographic of climate science acceptance in America.
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scaddenp at 05:59 AM on 17 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
I am pretty sure it is Arctic temperatures north of 80N. See here.
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JWRebel at 05:55 AM on 17 November 2016What President Trump means for the future of energy and climate
Trump may be susceptible to the idea that the US is going to lose its role as a leader in emergent technologies, such as solar and renewables. His views on climate amount to a few goofy one-offs ("Where is global warming when you need it" –- everybody in Russia and Canada has said that sometime in their life) and ignorance: He thinks that if the weather breaks a record that was last set in 1896 it proves that there is nothing novel about weather extremes (which is true — but not germane). If not completely beholden to fossil fuel interests or campaign promises there is some hope for a learning curve if he runs into advisors with an educational streak. He's also likely to be in for a surprise when calculating how many "hundreds of billions" can actually be squeezed from subsidies (and coal substitution). Further hope can be garnered from the fact that he is likely to favor States' and local autonomy, which means a lot of initiatives will carry on despite new policy. Just saying, the cause has not yet been completely lost.
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rkrolph at 05:13 AM on 17 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
The chart @12 needs some explanation. As in, what is it?
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shastatodd at 04:38 AM on 17 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
"But given Trump’s comments on the campaign trail, the US’s recent reputation under Barack Obama as a nation serious about tackling climate change now looks to be in peril."
im sorry, but donald trump does not dicate my energy consuption/ carbon footprint choices. -
One Planet Only Forever at 04:29 AM on 17 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Trump's plans for coal is likely to stop any transition of existing coal burners in the US and motivate utilities to maximize their use by ending laws and enforcement that make coal burning less profitable. However, his main plan would likely be to maximize exports of coal and us US influence to keep buyers of US coal from reducing their burning-blaming them and excusing the US.
Bottom line is Trump is bottom line popularity and profit guy who has a history of not caring how popularity gets drummed up or how unsustainable or damaging a pursuit of profit is understood to be. He has proven that popularity for nationalism can override any better understanding that what is being promoted will not advance humanity to a lasting better future. Tragically in Germany White Nationalists were twice proven to respond even more as the damaging absurdity of the Weimar and Nazi Regimes claims were ramped up.
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Lionel A at 01:37 AM on 17 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
Visiting the original article at Carbon Brief I note that somebody using the name 'monckton' has opened the comments batting with long debunked disinformation for which his Lordship is so well known.
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bozzza at 20:24 PM on 16 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
Enough, it's time to do something!
Moderator Response:[RH] Adjusted image size. Please keep image limited to 500px.
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John Hartz at 11:53 AM on 16 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
nigelj: You state:
Somebody needs to talk to Trump about climate change, but it needs to be kept to just a few key points. He will not have time for a massive lecture.
According to the following article, President Barak Obama is doing just that.
Here's how Obama's trying to persuade Trump not to abandon the Paris climate deal by Brad Plumer, Energy & Environment, Vox, Nov 15, 2016
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nigelj at 08:11 AM on 16 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
Trump does indeed have a history of unusually flexible views on most things. It all makes Trump hard to predict.
Somebody needs to talk to Trump about climate change, but it needs to be kept to just a few key points. He will not have time for a massive lecture.
Two main things convinced me fossil fuels are causing global warming. Firstly a graph showed that over the warming period since 1975,solar irradiance has been falling slightly. Secondly the warming is stronger and increasing more at night which suggests an increasing greenhouse effect. I don't have a physics degree, but I could easily relate to these issues.
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nigelj at 07:19 AM on 16 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Michael Sweet @ 12, I didn't realise there was such a strong consensus on global warming in the 1960s, but I accept your evidence.
I was really just reacting to Driving By. He made an initial claim that warnings about warming made in the 1960s were ignored by the Democrats, as they were more interested in their progressive agenda. This annoyed me.
But it shows an important point. Both Republicans and Democrats have been in denial about climate change at various times. The elite become tied up in their own narrow agendas, whatever they may be.
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perseus at 05:15 AM on 16 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
Trump won in areas with less educated, older, whiter populations with fewer immigrants.
It was exactly the same with Brexit in the UK. No wonder he's such buddies with Nigel Farage.
Interestingly UKIP, the neo-fascist party he used to head, obtained only one Member of Parliament (one MP is allocated per seat or region) out of 650 in the last general election despite receiving 13% of the vote (he has never won a seat). This is due to their votes being diluted across many regions and MPs being elected by a first past the post voting system in each region. The Greens only have one MP for the same reason.
In contrast, the Scottish Nationalists obtained 56 seats with only 8.6% of the popular vote, because their vote is concentrated enough in Scotland to overcome the other parties contesting those seats.
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william5331 at 05:02 AM on 16 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
On the bright side, what politician in the rest of the world wants to be associated with Trump in the eyes of his support. Imagine some politician making some sceptical comment about climate change and the next question by a reporter. "Are we to understand Mr Minister", he asks, "that you agree with President Trump". Perhaps the law of unexpected consequensis will act in our favor for a change.
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Eric Grimsrud at 03:07 AM on 16 November 2016US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory
In spite of the more pessimistic view most of us climate scientists now have, there is, nevertheless, the possibility that President-elect Trump will change many of his views abruptly, even before he becomes President Trump. This thought is consistent with Trump’s behavior in the past. He is a self-absorbed operator who doesn’t think he owes anything to anyone. Thus, when he gets into the oval office next January, I doubt that he will feel a strong obligation to honor any of the commitments he has made to others so far. Donald Trump is clearly not a stupid person himself - he has simply shown himself to be a master at getting the votes of those who are. He might more appropriately be labelled an uneducated person. As unlikely as this somewhat more progressive view of Trump might be, there’s no harm in crossing one’s fingers and trying very hard to educate him on the issue of climate change. Of all of the issues on the table, only this one needs to be addressed immediately. All of the others can be addressed and solved in due or even overdue time – if our life sustaining physical environment doesn’t slip away. Who knows – maybe Trump will also start learning a bit about the Father of his party and be inspired by how Lincoln saved the United States of America in the nick of time. The fact that he has so little regard for what’s left of today’s Republican Party is encouraging.
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BBHY at 23:27 PM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
I tried to warn people that Clinton was trying to buck a strong hitorical trend and her chances were slim.
America very rarely elects two different Democratic presidents back-to-back. Exceptions since WWII are when Johnson followed JFK, but JFK had died in office so LBJ was able to run as an incumbent. Incumbents have an significant advantage in our elections; that's why we have the 22nd Amendment, and why Senators and Congressmen with low approval ratings stay in office for decades. The same thing happened when Truman followed FDR, he was able to run as an incumbent after FDR died in office.
To find an example that didn't involve the advantage of incumbency you have to go back over 150 years, to James Buchanon followed Franklin Pierce in the election of 1856. So this is a very strong historical trend that is extremely hard to break. Still, I thought Clinton had a chance because Trump was so bad.
What does this have to do with Climate Change, and am I about to get flagged for being off-topic? The point is, we can't wait for the perfect president, the perfect congress, or the perfect political climate. It is up to us, the people, to mobilize and move forward on fighting climate change. Where the people lead, the politicians will follow. (or "Lead from the rear" as someone put it.)
One small consulation, Trump should be the absolute last of the climate denier presidents. Sea level rise is/has accelerated and in another 8 years, (maybe only four, but don't count on it), millions of people who don't now beleive in climate change will be changing their minds. Yes, we will be in very bad shape by then, really we already are just that many people can't/won't see it.
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Haze at 23:26 PM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
Thank you for so effectively but, I suspect, unintentionally, reinforcing my point.
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DrivingBy at 22:15 PM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
"Perhaps a little less derision and outright snobbery..."
Quite so. Artisinal, focus group tested, artfully concealed derision and snobbery will be right up. Would you like seltzer with that?
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michael sweet at 20:46 PM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Nigelj,
The report was from the National Academy of Science not "a couple of scientists". They warned strongly that AGW would be a big problem in the future. It reported the consensus of scientists at the time.
It has been over 50 years since that reort was delivered to the President. Unfortunately, we are making the same argument now.
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nigelj at 17:23 PM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Driving by @9, yes a couple of scientists in the 1960s predicted global warming but there was no consensus in the science community. Maybe there should have been.
Trump is possibly a pragmatist. So am I, but his changeability is so large it's not normal
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Imran520 at 16:55 PM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
The urban/rural divide was the third-strongest determining factor in the presidential election. Clinton won urban voters by 24 points; Trump won rural voters by 28 points. In many cases, cities are leading the way in taking action to curb global warming.
http://cnn.mobiletv.com.pk/
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Art Vandelay at 11:39 AM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
Trump fell slightly short of winning the popular vote but the election result itself still shows that 'climate change' as an issue is less important than other social and economic issues of today, as far as Americans are concerned.
My gut feeling is that Trump will be a 4 year President and will have little if any effect on global climate hange mitigation efforts.
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michael sweet at 11:27 AM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Wol,
In many locations, including Texas, WWS are the cheapest form of energy. In that case if Trump delays the buildout of WWS it will hurt international competitiveness. If WWS continue to go down in price they will be built out more and more.
Unfortunately, even a few years delay in installing more WWS will result in a lot more carbon in the atmosphere.
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Tom Curtis at 11:04 AM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
chriskoz @4, based on this poll, it is likely that a majority of Trump voters accept the reality of AGW, but that those that do are on average less worried about it than Clinton voters (or than is consistent with the evidence). I base that claim on the party affiliation results along with the fact that around 91% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 93% of Republicans voted for Trump, and 53% of independents voted for Trump (based on exit polls here, excluding "other/no answer").
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DrivingBy at 09:41 AM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
@nigelJ
- In the mid-60s, a presentation by a noted scientist (someone here recall the name?) to LBJ included the advisory that over the next century, the increase in atmospheric C02 would change the world's climate, with destabilizing effects, and that it would not be a temporary, reversible problem like smog. C02's greenhouse effect was discovered in the 19th century and confirmed (by Arhennious) around 1900. There's even a reference to it in the old educational film "Our Mr Sun", a suprisingly well-produced piece from our grandparent's day.
My point about the other items, wall-fence, ACA-ACA-lite is that DT really has few fixed positions; he's a combo real estate developer/reality show host. Someone called him Quantum Trump, as he seems to simultaneously hold multiple, opposing positions on a subject. That is not always a bad thing, because in politics there's often no right answer.
@JohnH:
We can hope that trade implications will enter the new Administration's calculus. If abandoning Paris turns out to be bad for business, Trump will probably change his tune. Democrats should have been helping those coal miners get jobs in the oil & gas fields or whatever emergent industry arises (wind turbine contstruction & upkeep). If Trump's administration is smart, they will offer new jobs that exist instead of old ones that aren't coming back. Trump couldn't care less about coal itself, he's looking at the communities which were formerly sustained by it, they are part of his support base. While he also couldn't care less about climate change, if ignoring CC turns out to be a drag on the economy I suspect he'll adjust.
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chriskoz at 09:38 AM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
I wonder why detailed exit polls pointed by Dana at the very top, does not specifically include the acceptance of climate science vs voting data. There are dozen (if not hundreds I'm bored to read) miniscule questions that will annoy any reader as they did myself, but the central question of climate mitigation, our central concern herein, where the new president will do most damage, is absent. That proves this poll, like the whole coverage of this election, is only about sensationalism, a reality show, or even better said a farcical comedy, rather than a serious contest of responsibility that POTUS office requires. Climate change mitigation is a number one challenge of that office but has been totally forgotten in the campaign and not even mentioned in this post-campain poll. Absurd.
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Wol at 07:17 AM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Part of any boom in the US economy under Trump would be the use of much "cheap" coal, gas and oil. The rest of the world would be somewhat shackled to increasing use of renewables, which are still presently more expensive partly because the hidden public costs of fossil fuels isn't adequately taken into account.
Having just had yet another online "discussion" with several deniers, who in the usual manner brought up all the oft-rebutted arguments, slipping from one to another at will, I see no chance that the Trump machine is in any way amenable to logical and scientific debate.
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nigelj at 07:06 AM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
Thanks for some interesting data and a good analysis, and you are broadly correct. There are clearly huge partisan divisions that are becoming worse and worse. The days of sensible consensus seem to be evaporating.
However you miss a point that the immediate cause of Clinton’s loss was James Comey, head of the FBI. Two weeks ago Clinton was ahead by 8 points and would almost certainly have also won the electoral college. After Comey’s dropping the email bomb in the final week her vote lead dropped to about 2% in the polls. (In reality the polls were also wrong and she was only ahead 1%). Yes obviously several factors contributed to Clintons loss, and she was not a great canditate, but Comey has to be the factor that clinched things. Personally I question his motives for acting the way he did, and consider them very dubious, and they should be questioned. The trouble is the Liberals (and I lean liberal) are too nice and won’t want to rock the boat.
I agree with the comment posted above. The world needs to signal its displeasure about Trump being elected and do so forcefully and especially so over climate change. The days of playing nice should be over. These Trump supporters don’t play nice so why should anyone else? The only thing that seems to get through to them is shouting and some harsh financial consequences.
Yes blue collar workers have been hurt and free trade plays some part, but mostly its automation and robotics. Trump can’t change these things. Tariffs will do more harm than good.
The only real way to help low income, low skilled people is some government financial help with retraining allowances and relocation allowances, etc. However this requires taxation and state help, so won’t be on the republican agenda.
It’s a huge mess and blue collar workers cant seem to work out its more the Republican Party ideology thats hurt them for decades. They consistently vote against their own financial self interest. But you can only lead a horse to water and I’m beyond caring on that issue.
However climate change is a global concern, and America is a big player and its ideological world view can be influential on other countries. This really therefore concerns everyone.
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nigelj at 06:15 AM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Michael Sweet @4.
I agree. I'm aware of some of those things, and thanks for the ones I wasn't aware of. And I hope you are right in your interpretation. It's just the election of Trump put my in such a foul mood that I just didn't care to try to find any positives!
At heart the Republicans believe in free markets (at least within America) So with renewable energy and gas having fallen in price it makes sense on this alone, and will hopefully prevail.
But watch the more vindictive people in Congress try to put a spanner in the works somehow. Unfortunately emotion and settling scores as they see it against The Green Movement counts with some people.
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chriskoz at 05:58 AM on 15 November 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
Jonbo69,
Chinese are already doing it:
China Threatens to Cut iPhone Sales Over Trump Rhetoric
Maybe not in response to climate ravaging by the irresponsible con man, as you suggest, rather to his ravaging of trade agrements; but still along the lines you suggest.
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Jonbo69 at 05:36 AM on 15 November 2016On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
After having just listened to William Yeatman of the Competitive Enterprise Institute on the UK's Channel Four news emphasising the non-binding and voluntary nature of the Paris agreement and the ease with which the US can take a position of non-compliance, I would just like to add a few more words.
What Trump and co need is something radical, bold and unexpected coming at them from out of leftfield. They will have anticipated and prepared for the international criticism and the battle with internal climate activists. I think it highly unlikely they are prepared for people from countries all over the world taking it upon themselves to boycott some of the big US corporations - it may just get them on the ropes and could be a game changer.
Let's face it, those of us who worry and care about climate change tend to be wish washy liberal types and moderate conservatives who don't like conflict, much prefer to work in co-operation with others, look to find common ground, want to be reasonable and play fair. Anyone thinking that approach is going to work with Trump and co needs to get off their unicorn.
The gloves need to come off and the fight taken to Trump. Trump didn’t realise his revolution through nice words and fair play, and any counter revolution won't achieve results by those methods. There will be those who will claim that it's unfair to target the US; after all, it's not as if other countries are doing what needs to be done on climate. Tough! It's fair enough! The US is about to become climate enemy number one and they need to be dealt with before the contagion spreads.
A boycott can also serve as a warning to other countries who decide their short term interests are more important than the long term survival of the planet.
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