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h4x354x0r at 17:17 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Good analysis @RedBarron. I've posted less documented musings on Facebook as well. I see three strikes against rural America:
1. Wal-Mart came in, killed local businesses, depressed wages and employment, and have been extracting wealth from rural communities ever since.
2. Corporate Agriculture has gotten between urban areas, and the surrounding rural communities that ostensibly feed them, squeezing both farmers and consumers for profit.
3. Propaganda-driven ignorance, aka hate radio and fox news and their ilk, have dominated these people's media exposure for decades. Fact is these rural communities are generally subsidized by social insurance transfer payments, but they've been lied to and led to believe it's others (i.e. urban blacks) getting all the government money. So, they just cut the last thread holding their own safety net together. Trump's shaping administration is already a who's who of extreme austerity policy. The cuts in social transfer payments to rural communities are going to be devastating.
And then, automated farming will take over. Driverless cars? Driverless tractors and combines, too. Rural America. It's what's for dinner. -
RedBaron at 14:24 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
scaddep,
I am saying that profit is a primary motivator of people. So the trick is to figure out a way to get people who don't necessarily even understand climate science, motivated to do the right thing simply because it returns a good profit for their hard work. Not investment portfolios. And not some minimal wage working for some corporation or factory either. Rather instead their labor, for which they deserve an honest working man's wage, but that labor having a negative carbon footprint.
See in some ways, Butz really was a genius. He has proven that government policies can have significant effect on entire sub-populations not only in a country, but in the whole world. Now his policies where from that standpoint wildly successful. He did what he set out to accomplish. In the short term they were beneficial too. What he missed was the long term side effects, since this particular strategy had never been tried before, he had no way of knowing. People did predict it, but he didn't believe them.
Now that we know the side effects, and how effective the strategy can be; using the same exact strategy of market intervention by government policies, but with a different end goal, should be both useful and effective.
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scaddenp at 14:05 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I perfectly agree that vote for Trump had nothing to do with climate change, but as you said yourself, you also have to stop burning coal. Policies to do that require admitting first that you have to do it.
Are you trying to say that only thing conservatives will vote for is something that makes them money?
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RedBaron at 13:40 PM on 11 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Digby,
That's a pretty good summation of HPG in a brittle environment yes. Keeping in mind this was the type of grassland that always befuddled any attemps to restore it. Certain other less brittle grasslands are much easier to restore and more forgiving of poor management, but do also show improvement using HPG.
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Digby Scorgie at 13:34 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
RedBaron @ 16
I have some homework for you to review! Please see the comments after the article on "Before the flood".
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Digby Scorgie at 13:20 PM on 11 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @9
I had an initial look at all the links you provided and then a closer look at those to do with grasslands. The following is what I deduce to be the recommended method of livestock management on the relevant grasslands in the future. I have no idea if I have summarized this correctly. My background is physics, not biology, but this is the sort of description I was looking for. I would appreciate having my misperceptions corrected.
Farming in a zero-carbon world — grasslands
On grasslands subject to alternating wet and dry seasons, livestock are managed according to a holistic grazing plan. This type of plan specifies when and how long animals will be in any given area. The animals are herded in tight groups and confined to relatively small paddocks by means of fences (either temporary electric or permanent) or herding or both. The technique amounts to multi-paddock mob-grazing. The aim is for the animals to have an intense but brief impact on the land — anything from several hours to a few days. The animals eat the grasses, forbs and shrubs available — the more diverse the better.
The farmers carefully observe the plants that are eaten for signs of over-grazing and adjust accordingly the amount of time the animals are confined in any given paddock. The grazing plan is therefore not fixed but evolves continuously as the farmers monitor the impact the animals are having and the rate of recovery of the plants in the other paddocks. Over-grazing is avoided.
When and where necessary, land is rested by the complete removal of the animals. The purpose is to allow bitten plants and their roots to recover and regrow after proper grazing and animal impact. Over-resting land is avoided as much as over-grazing, however, as this also leads to degradation of grassland. The rest period may be anywhere from a month to two years, depending on various factors. This period of rest is an essential part of the process, which always includes the return of intense short-term grazing and animal impact pressure after the recovery period.
(The above summary is heavily based on the work of A Savory.)
One can add more, explaining how the above method mimics Nature (before humans screwed things up), listing the advantages (particularly from a climate-change point of view), comparing this method with typical current practice, and describing how one initiates the process of restoring already-degraded grasslands using animals.
Should I go on, RedBaron, or should I leave it to the experts?
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RedBaron at 13:11 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I'll stick with what I know, agriculture.
In 1945 27% of farmers in US were forced to work off farm to earn a decent living. By 2002
93% of farmers had off-farm income to make ends meet.Source: Compiled by Economic
Research Service, USDA, using
data from Census of Agriculture
and Census of the United States52.2% of those farmers principle income was off farm and only 46.1% of farmers earn net positive income from farming.
Source: USDA-NASS, Census of Agriculture
In 1950 farmers received 41% of the food dollar spent by consumers. Now it is 17.4% on average. Certain things like commodity grains even as low as 3%.
Source: USDA-ERS
In 2012 the average age of farmers was 58.3 with over 20 times more farmers over age 75 as under 25. This has been growing steadily every year, as income:cost of living ratio has dropped and the next generation simply can't afford to farm. If the next generation can't get in, then the old generation can't get out. I suspect it is probably 60 by now.
Source: USDA-NASS, Census of Agriculture
Now check Wikipedia for the source of all these problems:
“Earl Lauer Butz (July 3, 1909 – February 2, 2008) was a United States government official who served as Secretary of Agriculture under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. His policies favored large-scale corporate farming and an end to New Deal programs, but he is best remembered for a series of verbal gaffes that eventually cost him his job.”
“For example, he abolished a program that paid corn farmers to not plant all their land. (See Henry Wallace’s “Ever-Normal Granary”.) This program had attempted to prevent a national oversupply of corn and low corn prices. His mantra to farmers was “get big or get out,”[6][7] and he urged farmers to plant commodity crops like corn “from fencerow to fencerow.” These policy shifts coincided with the rise of major agribusiness corporations, and the declining financial stability of the small family farm.[8]”
Now look at those maps that went to Trump. Small town and rural America almost all went Trump. Have you been to small town rural America recently? Clearly Earl Butz's policies had their intended results as evidenced by the stats I posted above. But what is missing from those stats is what it did to the whole economic structure of rural and small town America. Every one of those farmers forced off their land ("get big or get out") + nearly all farmers children and grandchildren, a whole culture, should be happily working the land, building houses, visiting the local hardware store, feed store, equipment supplier, sale barn, grocery store etc etc etc.... and now forced to take substandard jobs at walmart and McDonalds etc.... because when they left the farm to go work at the factories, they found the factories shut down and moved to Mexico and China? So now they are completely displaced. Off the land and no where to go!
In my opinion the vote for Trump had absolutely NOTHING to do with climate change. Denialism or full belief 100% is irrelevant. You really want to put forth a proposal that gets support? Figure out a way to end Butz's highly destructive policies. Replace them with policies that allow farmers back on the land and pays them to put carbon back into those depleted soils. I doesn't even need to be money from the government. Actually better if it isn't. Just end the subsidies keeping them off the land. Organic food already commands premium prices. You'll soon have an army of extremely motivated workers mitigating AGW. And you sold it as a jobs program for rural America. Doesn't even need to necessarily contain a whisper of the word "climate change". They start making money again, and that money will circulate through all those rural economies multiplying the effect.
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h4x354x0r at 12:46 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Here to echo Straight Talkin @ 13 here; didn't the Great Recession end up causing the single largest drop in global emissions we've seen so far? IIRC it was nearly 10%. Most of us are probalby aware that significant conservation will be required to reduce emissions quickly; energy replacement can't ramp up fast enough without significant conservation to meet in the middle. Too bad so few people seem willing to do that, because forced conservation sucks. But, it would still reduce emissions.
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Digby Scorgie at 12:36 PM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Straight Talkin @13
I've been thinking the same thing for a long time. The sooner global civilization collapses, the less damage humanity will inflict on the planet. But is this true? I've not seen any investigations of the topic. Does anybody know?
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Straight Talkin at 11:55 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
As the world economy is in what Chris Martenson at PeakProsperity calls a 'Predicament' (no escape from final destination) and the most likely outcome, as outlined on Ourfiniteworld, is a worldwide societal collapse Trump's contribution may be to speed up that process. This would probably lead to a massive reduction in greenhouse emissions, although not in a pleasant way.
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John Hartz at 11:30 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
@Synapsid #5: Recommended reading:
Five things that explain Donald Trump’s stunning presidential election victory by Anthony J. Gaughan, The Conversation US, Nov 9, 2016
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nigelj at 10:15 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Red Baron @ 6, nice thoughts, but hasn't Obama pushed clean energy partly on the basis it creates opportunities for profit? And it does. And Hilary Clinton has done the same.
Nothing seems to get through to the Republicans on climate change.
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Greg13940 at 10:12 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I understand the backlash against the defeatism of the article, but I understand the defeatism as well. Generally speaking, cap-and-trade and carbon taxes are the conservative, market-friendly solutions. Republicans, or at least the current Republican leadership, have rejected those as non-starters, and have made clear the only acceptable solution to them is denying the existence of a problem. It doesn't leave a lot of room to work with.
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nigelj at 10:10 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Scaddenp @4, I agree and would add this. I struggle to see how bringing back tariffs will help anyone. Tariffs will increase the price of consumer goods, and thus inflation and interest rates, and thus mortgage rates. Everyone suffers.
The Economist.com have calculated that 60% of manufacturing job losses in America are due to automation and robotics and only 30% to immigration and "free trade".
Even if you put back tariffs I think the only jobs they will create will be low pay production line jobs, and bringing back more automation to America from Asia obviously doesnt really create jobs.
I feel sorry for blue collar workers because they are the victim of things beyond their control, however the real answer is government help for people hurt and left behind, but this is on nobodies agenda!
I dont think it helps to politicise who voted for Trump, and their ideological leanings, but its fair to say they now bear considerable responsibility for the negative effects of climate change. I have been prepared to support government initiatives and their costs, and I feel let down.
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scaddenp at 10:03 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
RB - you have agree that a problem exists before you can solve it. Good luck with that in Congress. Pigovian taxes, cap and trade, emission trading all give profits those who mitigate, all designed to appeal to right-wing, - and going nowhere. Basically all of those depend on government intervention. I wrote an article here, indeed looking for solutions that were acceptable to the political right, especially liberatarians. Reading the comments is depressing, -it would appear that if a cheap technological fix were possible, then that is okay but otherwise it is la la la - but mostly you cant get the right wing to even consider solutions because denial is so much easier. Ie if there isnt a solution to a problem that conforms to my ideology, then problem doesnt exist (as opposed to "my ideology needs to change"). I cant my head around the mindset at. I dont even get why people buy into an ideology in the first place.
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Dcrickett at 09:24 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
What I find specially disturbing is that a knowledgeable, capable and respectable voice on the Climate issue writes such a misguided opinion piece. Blaming it all on conservatives is doubly inexcusable. First, because it is factually wrong (which the author weakly acknowledges). Also, because there are approaches of a more conservative orientation that need to be considered.
I continue to be an admirer of John Abraham's writing and climate work.
(My own political orientation, like my sexual orientation, is blatantly obvious to all who know me and utterly irrelevant to Skeptical Science.)
I was intellectually prepared for a Trump victory in my country’s presidential election. But emotionally I was utterly unprepared. On the day after the day after, I am still in a state of shock and unable to wrap my consciousness around it.
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RedBaron at 09:15 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
John,
Conservatives own climate change.
Conservatives own the consequences of climate change.
They own the increased droughts, more severe storms, sea level rise, and floods.
They own the heat waves, the loss of habitat and the shifting climate zones.
They own the climate refugees, the resulting political strive, and climate conflicts.
They own it all.
OK, that's what happened and for at least 2 years they will also own congress. This is potentially the greatest opportunity ever actually, or the biggest disaster ever, depending on how it is handled. The mitigation plans must be carefully crafted in such a way as to be acceptable to a conservative business slanting government, maybe as a business stimulous package? Trump pledged to cut taxes, so maybe huge tax cuts for businesses with a negative carbon footprint? This way he does what he said and at the same time addresses mitigation. Maybe as I have stated many times, change the subsidies on the buffer stock schemes surrounding "king corn" along with a tax credit for verifiable increases in soil carbon on agricultural soils? That could actually lower taxes. Or approach it from Trumps promise to rebuild infrastructure? Infra structure could look very different according to what it is designed to support. It's possible some ways to address that, could also at the same time address CO2.
I did not vote for Trump by any means. Be sure. Not with his crazy conspiracy theory blaming AGW on the Chinese. But I have been a conservative my whole life, and I am certain that it is possible to come up with a conservative acceptable mitigation plan. So instead of crying from shock, and proclaiming the end of the world, why not sharpen your pencils and find a new approach to mitigation that is acceptable to conservatives? Since they own the presidency and both houses, any plan you come up with that really is acceptable to conservatives is bound to pass right through. We could potentially flip the script on climate change in a matter of months!
I'll even give you a hint, if the plan includes big profits for those mitigating AGW, it will be at least considered.
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Synapsid at 09:12 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I would not agree that consevatives elected Trump. What elected Trump was the repudiation of Clinton plus the conservative vote.
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gws at 08:57 AM on 11 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
ah, sorry. meant cogeneration. IIRC, cogen is the most efficient use of the fuel's primary energy content, especially when relatively small plants are used to provide district heating (neighborhood scale).
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scaddenp at 08:53 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
But what the blue collar have been sold is that their jobs are going and wages stagnant because immigrants are taking their jobs and companies are shipping jobs offshore. Trump is gonna fix that (right). While that is partially true, it ignores much bigger job loss to automation and fact that people prefer cheap to homegrown. Trump isnt going to fix that.
Essentially same issues with getting people to understand climate issues - much more appealing voices telling stories to further their political aims.
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calyptorhynchus at 08:49 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I agree, but we also need to remember that many centerist or left of centre governments around the world did little on climate change during the period 2000 - now. They said many fine things about the need for action, but then did too little, or put it in the too-hard basket.
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nigelj at 07:16 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
Some of us in countries on the other side of the world are in deep shock and despair as well. Trumps policies on climate change, social issues, and economics are all a giant leap backwards for America, but they have vast and negative global implications as well.
I want to pick up on one point in the article. I'm reasonably well off financially, so also insulated from the negatives. I feel sorry for blue collar people in America as they have been sucked in by economic "snake oil" and the policy platorm proposed can only hurt them badly financially. They will also be the least able to cope with climate change as money gives people flexibility.
But what is done is done. You cannot save people from their own stupidity. It's up to the rest of the world to see the way emotion and poor reasoning has clouded Americas political thinking, and not be influenced by the outcome. We have to go our own way and push ahead with climate change mitigation, and hope Trump only lasts 4 years.
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scaddenp at 06:04 AM on 11 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
gws - "power NG plants are rarely planned as combined cycle,"
I would stunned if there were gas power stations being built that werent CC. It doesnt make economic sense. Can you provide examples please?
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Jonbo69 at 04:09 AM on 11 November 2016Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
I'm doing my best here in the UK by contacting groups such as Greenpeace UK with a plan of activism. My simple idea and hope is, the moment Trump as president makes it clear he is not going to adhere to the pledges made in the Paris agreement, there should be a campaign aimed at the UK public asking them to boycott all goods and services manufactures or delivered by American owned companies.
Trump ran with the campaign slogan 'America first' so I'm suggesting there could be a campaign called 'Planet first'. If we could start it off here in the UK maybe it could spread to other countries. I know there will be many scientists, liberal politicians and environmental activists in the US protesting against the Trump plan. They are going to be subjected to demonization and misinformation campaigns and it won't be enough - Trump & the GOP will do nothing unless the majority of American public opinion is against them. International governments may make protestations about US policy, but ultimately will do nothing, that's why there has to be a campaign organised by the people for the people.
Here in the UK, as in many countries, we are not doing enough to meet our climate targets, but the path America has chosen takes things to a whole new level. In the UK in the 1980's we still had racism; that didn't mean that we didn't have the right to campaign against apartheid in South Africa - a campaign that was ultimately successful.
Everyday Americans who don't realise the scale of problem may only be drawn to it if they witness palpable large scale anger and resentment in other countries. If US corporations such as Coca Cola, Starbucks and McDonalds are taking a major hit in their international operations then they'll be on Trumps back.
Anyway, those are just my thoughts for the moment.
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Rob Honeycutt at 01:24 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Sorry, ABloke, but there is nothing about a Trump presidency that changes basic physics.
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gws at 01:23 AM on 11 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
jpbpawley
yes, a point not addressed in the article. The current issue is, however, AFAIK, that power NG plants are rarely planned as combined cycle, and also too large, undermining the flexibility and targeted role as renewables backup you are highlighting. So that harks back to the last sentence in the post ...
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ABloke at 01:20 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Well I must confess to being slighly bemused Mr or Ms Moderator, having read you comments policy. 'On Topic' well everyone seemed to be discussing the effects of Donald Trumps presidency on 'Climate change'. My comment were appropriate to the thread, not repetitive, No sloganeering, unless you count 'collapse like a deck of cards'?!!! No link, no picture, no accusations of deception, no attacks. Political rants? No, bearing in mind the whole thread is tiled the 'President Trump would make America deplorable again' (a bit political and ranty, no?). All caps? No. Profanity/inflammatory? No. Dogpiling? No. Multiple identities? Not even mild schizophrenia. Copy/pasting? No. Spamming? No. Valid email address? Yes. So dear moderator exactly where have I transgressed 'policy'? I was merely expressing an opinion, as are others in this thread, as to the future of AGW now Trump is in the white house.
Moderator Response:[RH] Moderation complaint.
[PS] Sloganeering is making statements/assertions, without providing evidence to back them up. Shooting the messenger will not make a problem disappear.
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gws at 01:18 AM on 11 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
william, I think this article may be helpful.
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John Hartz at 00:43 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
ABloke #12: You would do well to read:
Physics Doesn’t Really Care Who Was Elected by Brian Kahn, Climate Central, Nov 9, 2016
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John Hartz at 00:33 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
JonBo 69 @#1: You asked:
Are we likely to see climate scientists face prosecution?
If you mean criminal prosecution, I sincerely doubt that would occur in the US.
For a more detail explanation of what might actually happen, see:
What Trump's Surprise Victory Could Mean for Science by Ryan F. Mandelbaum, Scientific American, Nov 9, 2016
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RedBaron at 00:26 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
@Haze,
What now as the questions about what Trump will do are clearly no longer "rendered moot"?
Sharpen your pencils and come up with a mitigation plan that is acceptable to conservatives. I highly recommend you don't use the word "tax" anywhere in the plan, but something similar could be in there somewhere.
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John Hartz at 00:25 AM on 11 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Haze @10: My new crystal ball has not yet arrived. My old one disintegrated as the election results came in..
Seriously, I am as concerned as you are about what a Trump Presidency means for international and national efforts to mitigate manmade climate change. In fact, I have been posting links to numerous articles about this topic on the SkS Facebook page over the past few days and will continue to do so.
Here are the ones I have posted to date:
US election: Climate scientists react to Donald Trump’s victory by Carbon Brief Staff, Carbon Brief, Nov 9, 2016
Trump Victory in Presidential Race Stuns Climate World by Zahra Hirji, InsideClimate News, Nov 9, 2016
The Paris Agreement will survive President Trump by Thomas Hale, Climate Home, Nov 9, 2016
What it would really mean if Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 8, 2016What Trump's Surprise Victory Could Mean for Science by Ryan F. Mandelbaum, Scientific American, Nov 9, 2016
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ABloke at 22:46 PM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
The whole 'Climate Change' thing is over. Trump will pull the funding, funding to the UN, withdraw from the Paris agreement. The UK have already closed down the Dept of Energy and Climate Change, Malcolm Roberts is precipitating change in the Australian Government. The whole thing will collapse like a house of cards.
Moderator Response:[JH] Sloganeering is prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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chriskoz at 17:46 PM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Haze@10,
Do you really want to drill on the consequences of that sad morning of a new 9/11 (as 9th of Nov is written by the rest of the world)? What's the point?
Just re-read the OP replacing "would" with "will". As I mentioned somewhere else, climate mitigation will be the very first casualty under the new administration because there is not opposition in Congress to the raving of the irresponssible man, particularly in thsat area of policies. This is especially sad. The only good news is that Paris agreement signed by Obama administration thankfuly went into force Nov 4 for the next 4 years, so the irresponsible administration will not be able to withdraw US from it, at least not immediately...
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Haze at 11:58 AM on 10 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
John Hartz@2 "I personally believe that your questions/concerns about what Trump will do as President on the climate change front will be rendered moot after the votes are tallied tomorrow and Hillary Clinton is declared to be the "President-elect."
What now as the questions about what Trump will do are clearly no longer "rendered moot"?
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jbpawley at 11:42 AM on 10 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
I hate to say anything to support fracked NG but:
It is really not just a matter of whether or not it replaces coal. NG can replace coal in 2 major ways: 1) as the fuel to a boiler that could otherwise use coal or 2) being burned in a gas turbine hooked to a generator with the hot exhaust then used to boil water into steam fed to a steam turbine/generator. The latter is called a combined-cycle setup and it is a very different animal. In particular, it can be turned off and on rapidly (Minutes?) and after warmup, it can provide a combined thermal efficiency close to 60% versus about 40% for a steam only plant.
This makes combined cycle a very useful method of filling gaps in renewables caused by changes in the weather.
So, the discussion of utility of NG isn't just about methane leaks and the fact that burning it produces relatively more heat for a given amount of CO2.
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Rocketscientist at 09:31 AM on 10 November 2016No longer taken seriously, we're seeing the last gasp of climate denial groups
Your ‘congregation’ could do with a little more of a balanced assessment of the points raised by Ridely (and many others).
I have a degree in Physics and helped developed the first satellite communication satellite systems used around the world i.e. so while not an expert I can understand the science involved. I'm also a greenie, left winger by nature and was initially at least very concerned by Al Gore’s ‘famous’ work. After spending a LOT of time and effort looking into the issues involved I came away impressed by much of the science of global warming - particular the ice age reconstructions - but extremely disappointed by much of the work on 'climate modelling'. The CO2 modelling fails the most basic of tests in that it HAS CONTINUNALLY FAILED to predict current trends or more importantly replicate the past paleoclimatic cycle data. To match the short term recent temperature data the models have continually required after the fact hindsight tweaking to match the data or the data has required tweaking.
So, when 'sceptics' point this out give them a little credit and admit the science is far from perfect. I've quoted your own assessment of Christies report below to point out the problem. You should acknowledge and THANK him instead you denigrate!
'So, this recent paper did a few things. First, they took the contrarian argument that the mid-troposphere temperatures have been rising at only 1/3 the rate predicted by models. They found that Christy’s team neglected the contamination of the cooling in the upper stratosphere. When they applied this correction, they found that Christy’s claim was incorrect. Differences between modelled and observed warming rates were much smaller, and had known explanations'.
The abstract is also provided below
‘We use updated and improved satellite retrievals of the temperature of the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT) to address key questions about the size and significance of TMT trends, agreement with model-derived TMT values, and whether models and satellite data show similar vertical profiles of warming. A recent study claimed that TMT trends over 1979 and 2015 are three times larger in climate models than in satellite data, but did not correct for the contribution TMT trends receive from stratospheric cooling. Here we show that the average ratio of modeled and observed TMT trends is sensitive to both satellite data uncertainties and to model-data differences in stratospheric cooling. When the impact of lower stratospheric cooling on TMT is accounted for, and when the most recent versions of satellite datasets are used, the previously claimed ratio of three between simulated and observed near-global TMT trends is reduced to ≈ 1.7. Next, we assess the validity of the statement that satellite data show no significant tropospheric warming over the last 18 years. This claim is not supported by our analysis: in five out of six corrected satellite TMT records, significant global-scale tropospheric warming has occurred within the last 18 years. Finally, we address long-standing concerns regarding discrepancies in modeled and observed vertical profiles of warming in the tropical atmosphere. We show that amplification of tropical warming between the lower and mid- to upper troposphere is now in close agreement in the average of 37 climate models and in one updated satellite record.’
To get the models to match it was also necessary to mess with the basic satellite data itself as well - probably for good reason but none the less more after the fact hindsight fiddling - yet AGAIN. Now all this is fine - that's how science and the models advance but at least acknowledge the problem and the fact that the science is NOT OVER. (PS the factor of 3 error was reduced to 1.7 – WELL DONE)
The other major problem is that none of these, what I call CO2 forcing factor driven models have manage to replicate the past ice age cycle data. Especially if the CO2 levels allowed to 'free run' rather than being artificially forced to match the ice core data response. The problem with the later should be obvious – does CO2 drive temperature or does temperature drive CO2 – obviously, a combination of both but the two factors need to be isolated.
This is basic 101 stuff - you have to validate major model assumptions before they have any credibility. The ONLY work that managed to do this as far as I've been able to determine was a paper (peer reviewed) published in 2013 in Nature. ' Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.' This to me was a major piece of work which has largely been ignored. This group finally managed to replicate the past ice age cycle behaviour largely using insolation factors coupled with isostatic rebound of the continental plates. I'm sure you'll be aware of this work and its potential importance. Basically, they appear to have demonstrated that you do NOT need to assign an artificially high forcing factor to CO2 to replicate the cycles. As they noted from their sensitivity runs 'Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.'
FINALLY, you avoided the other incredibly important issue totally - which is to question whether a warmer, wetter planet with higher CO2 levels is a BAD outcome. The greening of the planet since the end of the last ice age has directly enabled us to develop agriculture and societies to the point that we now all enjoy. Past geological data also readily indicates the planet has been much warmer in the past and lush as a result. Plants have done an incredible job in terraforming the atmosphere reducing CO2 to TRACE levels. I noticed that there was no response to Ridley’s and other’s arguments in this respect.
These are important issues and as Ridley rightly points out the concern is that attention and resources are being diverted from much more important ecological and social concerns.
PS I wonder whether this post will survive your ‘peer’ review?Moderator Response:[RH] Multiple breeches of commenting policies. Please try again after reading policies.
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Bruce Frykman at 08:50 AM on 10 November 2016Paris climate agreement enters into force: international experts respond
Its a good bet with James Inhofe Having president Trumps ear, funding for climate science will be reduced from a torrent to a trickle, maybe even zero as budgets compete for dwindling tax revenues.
In that this is a world crisis can we expect most of our climate experts to continue to work in this vital area of survival strictly as volunteers who will fund their own travels and expenses.
Perhaps they could show us how little money it takes and how small a carbon footprint climate science can make.
Would climate scientists object if their thousands of meetings were by teleconference?
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william5331 at 05:11 AM on 10 November 2016So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
What is a little disquieting about all of this is that the world output of Carbon dioxide has apparently been decreasing over roughly the same period. Yet despite this, if you look at the Mana Loa site for Carbon dioxide increases from Jan2015 to Jan2016, Feb2015 to Feb 2016 etc, the jump is far greater than for similar intervals in the past years. What is happening here. Is it simply an effect of the severe El Nino we have just gone through or is something more sinister happening. Have one or more Carbon dioxide sinks started to shut down. We will have a better indication as the 2016-2017 figures start to come out next year as the effect of the El Nino fades away. If this is indeed a persistant trend, and continues at the same rate as it is doing now, it halves the time we have to reach whatever maximum allowable Carbon dioxide ceiling you subscribe to.
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Haze at 18:18 PM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Well it's all over bar the shocked horror of those so confidently predicting a Clinton victory, much like the shocked horror of those predicting the UK would remain in the EU. In reality though I suspect the rhetoric of Trump the campaigner may not be his language now he is President. This unexpected result does show however, that the world's journalists are not very good at predicting the future. Will this result have an impact on the world's actions on climate change especially as the Republicans now control the Senate and Congress `as well as the Presidency? Personally I think having so much control is not a good thing
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Jonbo69 at 18:10 PM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
OK, so the American people have spoken; fair enough. It looks as if the US is going to go rogue on climate. Our politicians will do nothing so, for those of us living outside of the US, at some point in the near future there needs to be a call from the people to the people to boycott goods produced by American companies, incuding the ones we all love - coke, pepsi, perhaps even going as far as not watching movies made in Hollywood, and to not use American owned businesses - Starbucks, McDonalds etc. Simple as!
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nigelj at 08:09 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
William @6, you are right when Obama was first elected he sought consensus, and probably alienated some of his supporters. But if he had taken a more combative approach at day one, he would have alienated the Republicans in congress and got even less legislation passed. So he was caught between a rock and a hard place.
Obama also doesn't decide between Hillary or Bernie Saunders.This is decided by the super delegates who clearly favour Hilary. I doubt if Obamas opinion would have persuaded them otherwise, so its probably unfair to blame Obama too much.
Remember The Democrats are not a left leaning party like Labour in Britain. The Democrats are liberals and would be seen as almost mildly centre right in many countries. They are mildly left leaning on some issues. So I assume Sanders would be a lot for them to support.
This is just my understanding of the situation. I'm personaly sympathetic to Sanders and he did have a good level of public support.
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william5331 at 05:41 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
Sadly this whole debacle can be sheeted home to Obama. At the beginning of his presidency, because of a lack of experience he pursued the very laudable goal of getting the GOP on side to run America for the benefit of her citizens. He had a stary eyed view of his ability to create consenses as any reasonable man would. Arguably, as a result he lost his majority in the first mid terms because of his innefectiveness. He couldn't even shut down Guantanamo. Now, in his final major act he behaved as a politician instead of as a statesman and supported Hillary instead of Bernie. If Bernie had been the Dem candidate, Trump would have been history already and Bernie would have been on the way to the largest majority that any president has ever had. The only appeal that Trump has is his shared distain of the beltway with the American people. That is the total base of his success. Now Hillary will be president and that is not a pretty prospect. Whichever candidate wins today, America will have dodged a bullet.
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RedBaron at 03:05 AM on 9 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Tom,
If my soils tests out at 8% soc and I lose it so that later my soil tests out at 4% SOC as I gradually destroy the topsoil or lose it to erosion. That is still arable gound. In fact with heavy fertilizer use I can probably still farm for a whileIn arable ground statistics you won't see it lost, only degraded. Further if I plow a former grassland or forest, (which starts the degradation process) it will actually show in statistics as arable ground increasing. This explains the apparent paradox you are seeing. Nor do I claim that the carbon vanished completely, some entered the atmosphering pool, some entered the ocean pool, some is redeposited only floodplains like the famous Nile Delta, etc... but sediments in rivers lakes and the ocean are a very large part.
However, the soil that has degraded down to as much as 1-2% SOC due to agriculture (basically farming on subsoil) can be managed in a different way to start increasing SOC. Is it too much of a stretch for you to believe that it might be capable of reaching that % SOC found historically? After all the subsoil is roughly the same parent material in roughly the same locations. It reached those higher SOC levels at one time. Why would you think it impossible to do it again with an agricultural system using biomimicry?
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Jonbo69 at 02:33 AM on 9 November 2016President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
@villabolo,
Hi,
I didn't mean European governments, they won't do jack; I meant a call from the people to the people to boycott American businesses and goods produced by American firms, and for climate activists to have ongoing campaigns outside American owned businesses. Anyway, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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Tom Curtis at 01:42 AM on 9 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron @25 and 27, by talking about the potential size of the Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) reservoir as a sink for carbon emissions, you have changed the topic. Your evidence for the existence of a reservoir of that size is the purported loss of SOC to that extent due to agricultural practises, but in that event SOC loss represents have cumulative emissions approximately 4 times those from all other anthropogenic emissions. Worse, it means you need to find an additional 1550 GtC in known surface carbon reservoirs, ie, more than twice the size of the Dissiolved Organic Carbon reserervoir. Apparently over (at least) 800 GtC, having left the soils has "softly and silently vanished away" without going into any reserservoir.
Asked to defend these figures you point to a peer reviewed article which only claims a 50% topsoil loss for Iowa, not globally. That article further asserts that "per capita food supply has been reduced over that last 10 years [ie, 1985-1994] and continues to fall", whereas modern data shows the opposite:
It also claims that arable land is being lost at a rapid rate, but if so it is being gained at an even faster rate, for total arable land increased at a rate of 2 million hectares per annum from 1961-2013, while total agricultural land has increased at a rate of 10.6 million hectares per annum (FAO data). Further, the article does not directly discuss loss of SOC, and while its claimed 75 billion tonnes per annum of top soil lost from agricultural lands represents a problem, that loss is mostly from the 10.5% of the land area under cultivation. Most of that top soil would be deposited as silt in flood plains, or over land (if wind blown) so it does not represent the global loss of soil, still less that of SOC. In short, the paper does not appear to be reliable, and is certainly not directed to the point of discussion; on top of which you overstate its claims.
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RedBaron at 18:41 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Read up on it.
The numbers are 20 years old. It's even worse now.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 17:20 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
RedBaron
Your numbers don't seem to add up. If carbon lost from the soils is 10 times what we see in the atmosphere, given that known human emissions from fossil fuels are only about 1/2 of what we can see in the atmosphere, that means that 10.5 times the visible extra in the atmosphere has gone somewhere else. 150 years isn't long enough for significant transport to the deep ocean so where could all that carbon be?- Upper levels of the ocean?
- Surface vegetation?
- Where?
No way the ocean could have taken up that much carbon and not be noticed. Gas exchange balance with the atmosphere would mean that concentrations in the atmosphere should be significantly higher. Or if it was organic carbon in the oceans, it would be visible. The graph Tom highlighted doesn't suggest anything like that level. And there is a balance between dissolved organic carbon in the ocean and marine biota. More DOC would produce huge blooms that metabolise a lot of it, converting it to inorganic carbon, entering the carbonate system and being detectable.
Your argument seems to violate mass balance.
What I would question, though I don't know the details, is the claim of 50% loss of topsoil in the last 150 years. Is that 50% of area or volume? Loss of top soil is certainly an issue - an oft quoted figure is 1/3rd of farmland is losing soil faster than it is created. But 50% already lost? Sounds too high. That would suggest that a reasonable proportion of the planet is back to bedrock.
Do you have a source for that number? -
RedBaron at 15:42 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Scaddenp,
Right then basically the same yields per acre but with no inputs and better soil carbon sequestration.
Tom,
Sorry but not sure what you are missing, Of the ~2,700 Gt of C stored in soils worldwide, ~1550 GtC is organic, which is approximately double the current atmospheric C which is ~780 GtC.
This in not counting soil carbon held in peat and wetlands (150 GtC), inorganic C in soils (950GtC) and in plant litter at the soil surface (50 GtC).
~1550 GtC is the current levels but 1/2 of the topsoil on the planet has been lost in the last 150 years. So the size of the sink would be at least ~1550 GtC or greater before we need to worry about saturation, with all the carbon in the atmosphere only ~780 GtC and all we need to remove? What? Maybe 150-200 GtC. So the sink is approximately 10 times larger than it needs to be.
So at this point the main factor is rate of flux out of the atmosphere and into the soil. i am guessing maybe 40 years or so. However, emissions would thwart that time frame, melting cathrates could too. And I am no expert but I am told the ocean which is now a sink would turn into an emissions source should we start drawing down atmospheric carbon.
So maybe we will need all of that spare sink capacity?
Ultimately my statement was not false. We are missing 10 times more carbon from our soils as there is extra in the atmosphere.
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scaddenp at 13:07 PM on 8 November 2016Watch: Before the Flood
Redbaron, our average was 2.9 cow/ha in 2013 with 1060 kg/ha of milk solids, much of it on podzols. I dont see anything in your resources that doesnt sound like common practise here - except that now they get stocking increase with inputs as well. Irrigators are taking dairy into areas with 18-25" rain pa.
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