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SingletonEngineer at 10:35 AM on 2 October 2016Sensitivity training
This article is much appreciated. It typifies those which make this site so very informative.
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chriskoz at 09:19 AM on 2 October 20162016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #40
Jim Hansen is working on a new paper, where he will claim that
the temperature in 1940 - 45 is exaggerated because of data inhomogeneity in WW II
In the preview BetterGraph he shows the monthly running means smoothing annual & 11y cycles, as well as annual Jan-Dec averages. A very pretty graph indeed, showing the AGW signal at interplay with seasonal, ElNino and solar cycles. I like Jm's (likely Makiko's) pictures that are easy to read and thought me a lot.
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:04 AM on 2 October 2016Sensitivity training
Art Vandelay @1,
The amount of moisture in the atmosphere is more likely to be a function of how warm the air is than the wind speed evaporation rate.
As the atmosphere warms up there should be more moisture in the air regardless of the rate that wind evaporation creates it.
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mbryson at 08:25 AM on 2 October 2016Sensitivity training
@DrivingBy: I believe Alan Robock (at Rutgers) has worked on the potential climate impact of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. As I recall, the impact could be substantial.
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nigelj at 08:23 AM on 2 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
JW Rebel @10, I agree that politics and group identity play a big part in climate change denialism, and that this apples to everyone, religious or otherwise.
I would add the costs of a transition to fossil fuels worries everyone, possibly some people more than others depending on world views and priorities and fears about government impositions. This leads them to attack the science.
However religious conviction is an issue with young earthers and Christian fundamentalists. They see climate change as a threat to some very basic religious convictions as follows. It’s not that they look at the age of the earth as such. Instead, they have a strong conviction that god created the world largely as it is quite recently and that god wouldn’t allow us to substantially change the world. This would make us as powerful as god, which doesn’t fit with the bible as a whole. There are gradations of belief in this, but it sums up a large viewpoint. This is all foreign to me as an atheist who believes in evolution and I don’t understand how they think that way, but they do very deeply.
The best approach may be to argue that humanity has clearly altered the atmosphere with particulate emissions from coal etc, so carbon dioxide is a similar issue, and steer clear of suggesting we have irrevocably altered the climate permanently or interfered with gods plan.
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Dcrickett at 05:51 AM on 2 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Many decades ago, my son played football on his HS team, which brought him into contact with people he would/could never meet in the Chess Club, etc. He was amazed to hear from them that virtually none of them "believed" in Evolution; they "believed" in "what the Bible said."
A week or two later, he heard from them enough to convince him that they knew virtually nothing about Evolution. About as much as what they knew about "what the Bible said."
Many years later, with a brand-new PhD in ChE (Yale), he lived in his old area for a few months. His old team mates (and veterans from rival teams) loved to bend elbows, talk old times, and celebrate a Local Boy Who Made Good. In short order they all believed not only in Evolution but also in Climate Trouble.
There are lessons aplenty there.
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DrivingBy at 04:26 AM on 2 October 2016Sensitivity training
Not to be flip, but if Pakistan tries to nuke India and India responds before their command/control is toast, would that put enough smoke into the atmosphere to get ice recovery for a year or two? Would the effect just dissapear into the noise of year-to-year variance, or would it be larger (say, -1C). Would there be a residual cooling beyond, say, one year?
Of course I'm not hoping this will happen(!), mentioning because such speculation has been in the news recently.
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michael sweet at 03:51 AM on 2 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
JWRebel,
In my experience many young earth believers make religion their first priority in any decision. They sometimes will not listen to any argument that they feel conflicts with what they think the Bible says. If you say it is the hottest it has been in 100,000 years you lose them immediately.
Tom, don't you have experience discussing evolution with this crowd? What do you think?
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JWRebel at 22:11 PM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Fascinating. I would surmise that much of this young earth belief is very thin. It reminds me of youTube videos where they ask Americans at 4th of July parties from whom Independance was declared, etc., and getting no decent answers, not even people teaching at college, until they run into a 70 year old black grandpa from the south who probably never got beyond grade school, and knows the exact story and all the relevant facts. We cannot conclude that all these people do not believe in Independance. Chronology of biblical events is a subject on which no two theologians agree and hardly belongs to some shared core of beliefs. Certainly the murderer on the cross to who Jesus said that he would be in Paradise today was not grilled about any of his mental representations of time lines.
So here's my thesis: I bet there are a lot of these people that can be convinced about atmospheric physics (if you can get them to pay attention) without first having to address "core" beliefs about why paleontology is all about things that do not exist. Their resistance will be more about political and group loyalties than about values they cannot surrender.
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Art Vandelay at 20:55 PM on 1 October 2016Sensitivity training
I foiund an interesting study in Nature a few year's back that adressed the observed phenomenon of a global slow-down in wind speed. Wind speed is important because it governs evaporation rates, so a slow-down due to climate change also represents a potential negative feedback, assuming that the result is less vapour in the atmosphere.
If it's actually possible to accurately measure the total amount of vapour in the atmosphere (troposphere) over time, it should also be possible to calculate climate sensitivity, and additionally, perhaps possible to correct surface or satellite temperature data.
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sauerj at 13:15 PM on 1 October 2016New MIT app: check if your car meets climate targets
Question: Does the chart's CO2/km figures include all the full extent of the manufacturing contributions (with all of the multiple upstream layers of manufacturing) in order to build the vehicle? It would helpful to have a chart with and without the manufacturing contribution included. This way one could determine when it makes sense to replace the existing vehicle in the garage (based on today's improperly priced FF costs).
Of course, all of the unknowns associated with these cost externalities (manufacturing and future operating and future environmental impact) would be put "on the table" and become completely transparent if only we had a carbon fee & dividend system where all economic costs included future environmental externalities would be included. Then, it would be obvious which way to go, and the incentive to go there would be plainly felt and therefore taken.
Since 1990, the US uses 58% less energy per unit GDP. One would expect that carbon emission would therefore be 58% less compared to 1990. Not so, US carbon emission have been a flat line since then. The reduced energy cost (by this improved efficiency) only results in us consuming more stuff, holding FF demand constant. The result is no reduction in carbon emissions. Consider what this means!
Until energy is priced sustainably positive (via a carbon tax, hopefully using the least burdensome carbon fee & dividend approach) everything we do is wrong. In fact, any heroic efforts won't make any positive difference at all; because others will simply use the FF's the hero avoided thanks to their sacrifices helping to keep the price down. Until FF's include external future costs, we will continue down our status quo path. This is because the economy will not be motivated to go down the sustainable path. Subsidies, Command & Control and Cap & Trade will be marginally successful. All are burdensome approaches.
To be effective, I highly recommend others to join the CCL CFD campaign. Join a local CCL chapter today! There is a chapter in every US congressional district. Help get endorsements from local businesses, schools & churches so to help sway your congress person! Make it clear that responsible energy pricing is actually the conservative answer to addressing climate change.
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John Hartz at 13:03 PM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Katharine Hayhoe has her work cut for her...
Four Fifths Of Evangelical Christians Do Not Believe Humans Cause Climate Change by Harry Farley, Christian World, Sep 23, 2016
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michael sweet at 12:36 PM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Tom,
i think the prevalence of Young Earthers illustrates the difficulty that Dr. Hayhoe has reaching her audience. I think it is important to point out this issue to people who read this blog who do not reside in the USA and/or are not aware of how many people have this belief. It is difficult to convince someone who thinks the Earth is only 10,000 years old (or 20,000) that snow records prove that it is warmer now than it has been in the past 700,000 years and that warmth is a problem.
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nigelj at 10:15 AM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
I just applaud Katharine Hayhoe’s views, and her ability as a Christian to accept climate science. As a very definite atheist I have my views, but as I have got older I have become less strident and why annoy somebody that is basically promoting the science? This woman is providing some leadership and seems thoroughly pleasant.
She is clearly comfortable with her position and presumably interprets the bible in a way that allows her to do this. Interpretations of the bible vary with a few Christian fundamentalists believing the world was literally created in 6006 BC through to others who simply believe God was a prime mover, and several gradations in between. The message of the New Testament seems to be one of defining greed as a sin, which could be taken to promote environmental conservation.
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Tom Curtis at 08:59 AM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
michael sweet @4, RedBaron @5, in the 2014 gallop poll, 42% of Americans believe that "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time in the last 10,000 years", with a further 31% thinking "Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process", and just 19% thinking "Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part i this process"
The first opinion does not necessarilly imply Young Earth Creationism, as it is consistent with a belief in an old Earth in which there have been successive independent creations (a view that emphasises that the Hebrew can be translated as "the Earth became without form, and void"; or with an old earth in which various animals have been created at different times, so as to approximate to evolution by creation (successive creationism); or with the view that the Earth is old, and that life evolved in a God guided process, but that Humans came into an existence due to a deliberate creative act (which is in fact the official view within the Catholic Church).
The 2013 Pew Poll indicates that 33% (32%) of American adults believe that "“humans (animals) and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time.” Agreement with those questions requires belief in Young Earth Creationism. The poll had a 3% margin of error. The figure drops from 33 to 15% among white, mainline protestants, but rises to 64% among white evangelical protestants. That divergence may explain RedBaron's experience. Alternatively, I note that the majority of Young Earth Creationists now believe the Earth to be at least 10 thousand, and potentially as much as 20 thousand years old. That is, they accept only a qualified 'literalism' and reject Usher's chronology.
In Katharine Hayhoe's case, the more relevant fact may be that among Canadians (2012 poll), 22% agreed that "God created human beings in their present form within the last 10,000 years", while 61% agreed that "Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years".
I am unsure what this has to do with the topic of this post.
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RedBaron at 06:20 AM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
@4 Michael sweet,
As I recall the Gallup poll in question asked whether Man was created in his present form, not the geological age of the Earth. Actually though, it is not my field of expertise. So I will bow to your expertise in polls. Doesn't change a single thing though. I still think it is irrelevant. Katharine Hayhoe understands the science behind manmade climate change; and the teaching of the good steward of the land and responcibility for one's actions doctrines from her religion. There is nothing important for me to argue with regarding her position on AGW.
I see Katharine Hayhoe as one more important ally in moving towards reaching an audience about the importance of mitigation. If she can help change that demographic's opinion on AGW, all the better.
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michael sweet at 05:12 AM on 1 October 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Red Baron,
According to Gallop polls, 40% of Americans are young earthers. That includes the UAH scientist Roy Spencer. Please provide a citation to support your claim that young earthers are uncommon in the USA.
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RedBaron at 23:44 PM on 30 September 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
@2 ELIofVA,
I of course can't answer for Katherine. But I can say that regardless of what you may have been told, the vast majority of Christians, EVEN in Texas, do understand the Earth is not literally 6,000 years old. And anyone coming to that conclusion by reading Genesis is simply not understanding Genesis. There are a very vocal minority of YECs in Texas, that are tolerated by the rest of the Christians there primarily due to the realization that their heart in is the right place, and it is not worth arguing over. Very much like one tolerates a grandmother that doesn't really understand new advancements in science and technology. You love your Grandmother anyway and think no less of her at all.
Likewise I believe it is irrelevant how Katherine Hayhoe personally resolves the superficial conflict inherent in certain interpretations of Genesis. She apparently understands science enough to understand AGW is real, and she apparently understands Genesis enough to understand the good stewardship and responcibility for one's actions doctrines found there. It is enough.
Moderator Response:[JH] Katharine Hayhoe
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ELIofVA at 23:02 PM on 30 September 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
I appreciate Katherine Hayhoe's advocacy among evangelical constituents about the truth of climate change. However, I can not figure out how she resolves the differences between the Genesis version of creation and the geologic record of creation. Katherine, if you are reading this blog, could you comment?
Moderator Response:[JH] Katharine Hayhoe
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RedBaron at 20:53 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
@ Tom and scaddenp,
#1 I agree it is not a panacea. I have stated as such several times on these pages. I actually think we should be taking a 3 pronged approach. BCCS in agriculture, conversion to non fossil fuel based energy, restoration of natural ecosystems wordwide. Theoretically all 3 potentially could work by themselves given enough time, but each has reasons why none can be done 100% at current technology levels. Also we may not have enough time.
Right now we can't rewild the whole planet because we do not currently have a way to feed ourselves without farmland. That technology is in its infancy with certain hydroponics systems and lab grown synthetic meat. And currently much more energy intensive, energy we currently get from fossil fuels! And it's cost prohibitive as well. Not to mention many species are completely extinct already and restoring those ecosystems given the trophic cascade effect will be costly and difficult. So we can't rewild everything. But there are large tracts of land we can rewild.
Same goes for eliminating fossil fuels. The current energy systems world wide can largely be replaced by renewables and nuclear, but each has it's own limitations and/or is cost prohibitive at current technology levels. This is more feasible than rewilding the whole planet, but still by itself very unlikely to be accomplished 100%. 0% emissions might also not be fast enough due to reinforcing feedbacks. But we certainly can dramatically reduce our dependance on fossil fuels.
BCCS is the most feasible and fastest of all at current technology levels, but alone also unlikely to be enough. I estimate at best if practised perfectly on 100% of all 5 Giga Hectares of agricultural land around the world; it could offset between 62% and 250% of all annual fossil fuel emissions worldwide and would take a minimum of 3-10 years to reach even that rate, based on case studies of farmers in the field already doing it. That assumes a 100% agreement by all farmers governments and consumers and a high learning curve that allows new farmers to learn all in 1 season. Reality of course is much less on all those points. So even that is unlikely to be enough alone. We can however start changing agriculture to these more profitable regenerative models of production.
So in my opinion none of these strategies is likely to work alone, but if all 3 are done to the best of our current ability; ecosystem restoration projects, fossil fuel reductions and biological carbon capture and storage in agriculture; I do contend the problem is very solvable even at this late date.
However, when people make factual errors in descibing how BCCS functions, I will in every case try to correct them. That does not mean my comments should be taken to mean I think BCCS is a panacea. Just correcting misconceptions about how it works. No different than you correcting a AGW denialist stuck on some pseudo science point they heard somewhere.
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scaddenp at 17:59 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
And apologies for video, but I can read many many times faster than I can look/listen. I find video tiresome, a pain to go back and check if I missed understanding. I can find better uses for 30 minutes of my time.
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scaddenp at 17:42 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
Red Baron - I will respond to your optimism on soils on another thread in due course. I am travelling to head office and with it a chance to talk to the scientist here most knowledgable on this area.
But to topic at hand, I asked for effective - something preventing any further build up of CO2 in atmosphere and if Tom is correct, then this is not. I am still waiting for the libertarians to put forward any workable proposal for actually limiting emissions to this level. Suppose no non-governmental solution is actually possible? Would you rather see world go to hell in a handbasket rather than yeilding on precious ideological position?
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Tom Curtis at 16:56 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
RedBaron @159:
"Grasslands no longer sequestering carbon are simply not being managed correctly."
That statement suggests that there is no upper limit on the amount of carbon that can be sequestered in grasslands, a suggestion which is obviously false. At an upper limit, grassland on a soil composed entirely of carbon to a depth of 12 meters will clearly not allow the sequestration of more carbon into the soil. In practical terms, the upper limit will be very far below 100% carbon content. Further, given the rapid replacement of much of the world's grasslands with either horticulture, nor non-intensive pasturage (ie, regimes which you argue, with substantial evidence, are inferior in soil storage to native grasslands with native herds of large herbivores) has contributed less than 20% of the anthropogenic increase in CO2 (that being the total contribution from LUC including deforestation); the saturation level must sequester, if extended over all of the world's natural grasslands, a small fraction of total anthropogenic emissions.
That is not to be sneezed at. If it can only sequester 20% of cumulative anthropogenic emissions - that would be a very large step forward to tackling climate change. It is, however, no panacea, and should not be promoted as one.
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pslebow at 13:53 PM on 30 September 2016Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
Yes, the 100 horizon for methane is whistling in the dark, presuming there are no non-linearities and tipping points in the near future.
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RedBaron at 13:25 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
@158 scaddenp,
Its a pity you refuse to watch and see with your own eyes how to do what you stubbornly claim can't be done. I can describe it with either dry references or with quotes, but until you actually see it, you are very likely to not believe in its existance. It's just the way the human mind works.
You are correct that in certain locations forest soils don't hold carbon. Primarily in tropical rainforests. Terra preta was a long ago solution for that. Grasslands no longer sequestering carbon are simply not being managed correctly. LOTS of evidence for that. I posted the vid to show you how much different a properly managed grassland and forest ecosystem looks compared to what most people are familiar with. In this case the forest was temperate decidious. So the way it works is by increasing both the tree growth and generation a second ground layer of plant growth. (collecting more solar energy by photosynthesis) The grassland by optimizing the rapid growth stage of the grass growth curve. (which again increases photosynthesis)
But this thread primarily is about politics and whether there are mitigation strategies acceptable to the right. So I guess the proper evidence to produce here would be a political piece showing that both the right and the left can unite around this strategy. None better than the Washington Post for that!
How America’s most famous farmer can appeal to left, right and center
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scaddenp at 12:44 PM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
Life's too short for me to watch to videos, but the question to ask is whether this is a solution that works for non-farmers and what at best it would do in US? (could you sequester all coal and transport emissions).
For example. Here our are emissions are about 50% farm methane, 50% transport fuel (okay small amounts from coal/gas electricity production). Farming does not sequester carbon on our forest-based soils - numerous studies have shown this. I accept grazing can on prairie soils but not here. The only example of carbon gain was a switch to grazing on highly-degraded ex-cropped soil, and only in the short term.
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RedBaron at 11:41 AM on 30 September 2016GHG emission mitigation solutions - a challenge for the Right?
@scaddenp,
On another thread you said, "If you can see an effective solution to mitigation of CO2 that the libertarians can live with, then please share in detail on this thread. Fresh ideas are extremely welcome."
That's actually pretty easy. There are right wing Libertain Christians (probably right wing Libertarian athiests too) mitigating AGW in their own small way already. Yes that's right, right wing Libertarian free market capitalists making 6 and 7 figure income annually and mitigating AGW all at the same time.
Don't be confused by the current crop of neo-conservatives currently in power in the US. They are not even conservatives really, just refugees from the left wing. They believe in high taxation and big government every bit as much as the most left wing liberal socialist.
A substantial number of neoconservatives were originally moderate socialists associated with the right-wing of the Socialist Party of America (SP), and its successor, Social Democrats, USA (SDUSA).
Neoconservatism ... originated in the 1970s as a movement of anti-Soviet liberals and social democrats in the tradition of Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Humphrey and Henry ('Scoop') Jackson, many of whom preferred to call themselves 'paleoliberals.' [After the end of the Cold War] ... many 'paleoliberals' drifted back to the Democratic center ... Today's neocons are a shrunken remnant of the original broad neocon coalition. Nevertheless, the origins of their ideology on the left are still apparent. The fact that most of the younger neocons were never on the left is irrelevant; they are the intellectual (and, in the case of William Kristol and John Podhoretz, the literal) heirs of older ex-leftists.
Notable people associated with neoconservatism
The list includes public people identified as personally neoconservative at an important time or a high official with numerous neoconservative advisers, such as George W. Bush and Richard Cheney.Politicians
George W. Bush announces his $74.7 billion wartime supplemental budget request as Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz look on.
Jeb Bush (R) – 43rd Governor of Florida (1999–2007) and 2016 presidential candidate[122]
Newt Gingrich (R) – Representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–99), Speaker of the House of Representatives (1995–99) and 2012 presidential candidate[123]
Lindsey Graham (R) – Representative from South Carolina (1995–2003), Senator (2003–present) and 2016 presidential candidate[124]
Peter T. King (R) – Representative from New York's 3rd congressional district (1993–2013) and New York's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)[125]
Jon Kyl (R) – Representative from Arizona (1987–95), U.S. Senator (1995–2013) and House Minority Whip (2007–13)[126]
Joe Lieberman (I) – 21st Attorney General of Connecticut (1983–89), Senator from Connecticut (1989–2013) and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee[127]
John McCain (R) – Representative from Arizona (1983–87), Senator (1987–present) and 2008 Republican presidential nominee[128]
Tim Pawlenty (R) – 39th Governor of Minnesota (2003–11) and 2012 presidential candidate[129]
Mike Rogers (R) – U.S. Representative from Michigan's 8th congressional district (2001–15)[130]
Mitt Romney (R) – 70th Governor of (2003–07), 2008 presidential candidate and 2012 Republican presidential nominee[131][132][133]
Jim Talent (R) – Representative from Missouri (1993–2001) and Senator (2002–07)[134]
Government officials
Elliot Abrams (R) – Foreign policy adviser.[135]
William Bennett (R) – Chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities (1981–85), Director of the National Drug Control Policy (1989–90) and U.S. Secretary of Education (1985–88)[136]
William G. Boykin – Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence
Eliot A. Cohen – U.S. State Department Counselor (2007–09), now Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University.[137]
Jeane Kirkpatrick (R) – Ambassador to the United Nations[138]
Scooter Libby (R) – Chief–of–Staff to Dick Cheney[139]
Victoria Nuland – Assistant Secretary of State, foreign policy adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.[140]
Richard Perle (R) – Assistant Secretary of Defense and lobbyist.[141]
Karl Rove (R) – Senior Advisor to the President of the United States (2001–07) and White House Deputy Chief of Staff (2005–07)[142]
Paul Wolfowitz (R) – State and Defense Department official[143]
R. James Woolsey Jr. (D) – 16th Director of Central Intelligence, Under Secretary of the Navy and green energy lobbyist[1]So what does a true conservative, who also happens to be a Libertarian, mitigating AGW at a tidy profit in a free market look like?
Be sure and watch all three episode of Meet the Farmer. A lot of what he talks about are related to food security and government regulations, but interspersed between stories of his battles with the government are a few references to the carbon footprint of his farm. And if you know what to look for, you can actually see causation as to why a system that wasn't necessarily developed for AGW mitigation, actually does mitigate AGW through biological carbon capture and storage (BCCS) and reduced emissions. See if you can spot this evidence.
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scaddenp at 06:51 AM on 30 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
If you can see an effective solution to mitigation of CO2 that the libertarians can live with, then please share in detail on this thread. Fresh ideas are extremely welcome.
" a fully government controlled and regulated response ahead of a (partly regulated) free market response. IOW, global socialism."
Frankly this sounds like over-ripe rhetoric. Did the Montreal Protocol usher in global socialism? Does a global agreement on a Pigovian tax signal the end of free-market economies?
I hear Sanders (who seems centre-left politico to me) described as "socialist" which to me suggests Americans have a very different definition of socialism to that in politcal theory textbooks and used by wider world. It is being invoked as a bogeyman by people who are mindlessly binding to an ideology and demanding reality conform to that rather than ideology to reality. Can you get pills for that do you think?
Also implicite in this, is idea that say a carbon tax is "a threat to the comfortable existence of an individual" but rapid climate change isnt. Libertarians are big on rights - how do you feel about the negative consequences of one persons comfortable existance being born by someone else entirely? I nurse the strong suspicion that many "Liberaterians" are actually just extremely selfish people concerned with nobodies rights but their own, but I am well aware of thoughtful rights-repecting individuals too that do worry about things like one person's smoke harming another.
IMO, you dont even need a global agreement. If big consumer economies, (US, western europe) implemented pigovian carbon tax and taxed carbon at the border (on embodied energy of goods created with FF), then that would have the same effect.
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JWRebel at 03:50 AM on 30 September 2016Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 1
Finally the truth about Katherine Hayhoe comes out: I always thought it so unlikely to find a bona fide Texas evangelical atmospheric scientist, and a woman at that. Now I discover that at bottom she's just another sensible Canadian. There goes my little miracle.
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Tom Curtis at 02:22 AM on 30 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
Art Vandelay @23, while I cannot exclude the "rolling the dice" model for all "skeptics", I see little evidence that "skeptics" in general consider AGW one from amongst many (nearly) equally probable alternatives. Some, it is true, may consider many alternatives to AGW equally probable, while being very firm that AGW can only be believed as the result of a conspiracy theory to fraudulently alter data. Most common, from my observation, however, is the firmly expressed belief that:
X ⇒ ¬AGW, for the given anti AGW theory X, currently being presented; and that therefore ¬AGW.
That is, they are happy to apply modus ponens with equal enthusiasm for each and every anti-AGW argument presented, even though that commits them logically to the truth of each of those anti-AGW arguments, which are in turn form mutually contradictory set.
Further, I have seen a number happy to reason in that flawed manner while also boasting of their scientific credentials (including many engineers, doctors, not a few BScs).
As to the theory of motivated reasoning, I am certain it is a factor, but it is never justified. Further, as an explanation it fits nicely with Lewandowski, Cook and Lloyd (2016).
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Art Vandelay at 14:55 PM on 29 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
Tom Curtis @14 says, "For myself, I have often noted within the "skeptical" community a tendency by individuals to comment appreciatively on any claim purported to refute AGW, even when such claims contradict the favoured theory of the individual."
Perhaps this can also be explained by the "rolling the dice" analogy, where individuals may see 'dangerous global warming' as just one of a number of possible outcomes with near equally probability, as well as the only outcome that necessitates a global coordinated response. Bear in mind too that the average person on the street possesses a limited understanding of the physics behing the theory of AGW, and if the denialist movement (assumed movement) is a collective of persons of average (high school level) science knowledge, the incoherence is more explainable at the collective level.
Which brings us to the issue of 'world view'. If the global coordinated response presents a threat to the comfortable existence of an individual then it's a natural human response for that individual to (attempt to) reject that response and the very basis on which it's constructed.
For myself, a libertarian, I see the AGW response as a threat only if it demands a fully government controlled and regulated response ahead of a (partly regulated) free market response. IOW, global socialism.
Actually, my world view supports AGW action because I regard free market economics as best able to deliver timely energy solutions, and if necessary, engineering solutions to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere, and I'm confident that a free market approach will ultimately prevail anyway.
Other free marketeers see it differently of course.
Obviously, in the future there needs to be a pathway to sustainability, independent of GHG emissions.
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scaddenp at 12:31 PM on 29 September 2016How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
Locane, looking at chart sources, that purple band is all agriculture (which includes non-food agriculture like cotton, wool). The 5.1% is I believe just enteric emissions (burps/farts) and manure. Depending on farming practice, meat will also have contributions from soils. In places where forests are being cleared to raise beef (Brazil), there is a significant contribution in the Land Use change (green) band.
However, if your point is that meat-eating is a small contribution to emissions compared to industry, electricity and transport, then you would be correct.
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RedBaron at 12:18 PM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
@16 John Hartz,
I have a SBIRP Phaze 1 grant proposal to finalize in the next couple weeks to meet the deadline. Once I have completed that, I will probably have some spare time to make a synthesis. But to keep it short and sweet, I would probably need you to more precisely define the topic. I do have a tendancy to ramble on regarding related side issues. You know? The whole "systems science" thingy where everything it related to everything else! ;)
Moderator Response:[JH] You can always author more than one article, or break-up a long article into parts. Please submit an outline of the ground you would like to cover using the "Contact Us" button at the bottom of the page. All draft articles submitted for publication on SkS will undergo a "peer review" by members of the SkS all-volunteer author team.
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John Hartz at 11:32 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
RedBaron:
Would you be interested in synthesizing your posts into an article for posting on the SkS website?
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Digby Scorgie at 11:09 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
John Hartz @8
Having skimmed through bits of IPCC reports, I am amazed at the vast amount of work these reports represent. From my technical-writing perspective I'm only too aware of the enormous difficulty of the task.
However, one must still bear in mind the comment in the article about "increasingly unreadable reports". And having studied specifically the SPM, I know that a good technical writer or two would make a marked difference to the readability of the document. In its current form it is just not easy reading for a non-scientist.
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Locane at 09:46 AM on 29 September 2016How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
Quick question for the author dana1981 - is the purple band in the GHG Emissions flowchart representative of ALL food-producing agriculture; IE plants (corn, rice, fruit, etc) AND animals? Or just animals?
If it's all, does that mean that raising animals for meat consumption is 5.1% of the total in the world GHG chart?
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RedBaron at 09:34 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
@12 John,
No John, I did not have a hand in writing that article. Furthermore, I think the carbon sequestration potential estimates given are extraordinarily low. I believe those estimates are low because they make the fatal assumption that we are required to keep the basic production models we have in place now. (ie king corn, CAFOs, and corn and soy biofuels) Instead of replacing those fatally flawed production models, they instead base their estimates on improving them so they are less destructive.
My advocated approach would completely bypass most of that, because there is only so much improvement that can be made as long as the directive from the USDA remains to overproduce grains, promote corn fed beef and total confinement pork and poultry, and increase corn fermented ethanol. (CAFOs are at 97%, so they are mostly maxed out already)
You need to remember, within the system they created, there is only so much improvement that can be made. Most farmers and the majority of the infrastructure is nearing maximum efficiency. In order to achieve the much better efficiencies, you would be forced to make USDA change their directives so we can change the whole system to a more efficient one. This is closely related to the post I made a while back showing how we could restructure the buffer stock scheme. (and related regulations)
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RedBaron at 09:03 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
@11 John,
You said, "BTW, what is Sir Albert Howard's dire prediction?"
No less than the complete collapse of agriculture, taking both human civilization and a good portion the biosphere with it. Keep in mind though, he actually didn't think that would happen. He always assumed humanity would not be foolish enough to continue down that doomed path. Here we are though, 70 years later, and not only are we still stuck on that path, but actually regulating against and subsidizing against correcting it! His words of caution seem extraordinarily pithy today.
"The first duty of the agriculturalist must always be to understand that he is part of nature and can not escape from his environment." - Sir Albert Howard
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John Hartz at 08:39 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
RedBaron:
Did you have a hand in writing the following article? Seriously, does it square with your position?
Looking to the Earth Itself as a Climate Solution by Georina Gustin, InsideClimate News, Sep 28, 2016
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John Hartz at 08:34 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
RedBaron: Thanks for the detailed response. There is indeed much for me and others to digest. :)
BTW, what is Sir Albert Howard's dire prediction?
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RedBaron at 06:39 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
@9 John Hartz,
Claimed in the link you provided:
"It is possible the natural processes that remove methane from the atmosphere have slowed down, but it is more likely that there’s been an increase of methane emission instead, especially from the hot wet tropics, according to the authors."
In my opinion both are happening. Agriculture as it is most widely practised now is both reducing the natural processes that remove methane, and in some cases increasing methane emissions. So the net component of increasing atmospheric methane that agriculture is responcible for is dramatically rising due to the effect agriculture has on both sides of the methane cycle.
You asked how can BCCS make a significant contribution to mitigating this contribution to manmade climate change? Well starting with wetlands emissions, the primary agricultural component to that portion of the methane cycle is paddy rice production. So in the case of rice, a shift to SRI would be a significant improvement.
• Reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from paddy soils
o Methane (CH4) is reduced by between 22%
and 64%, as soils are maintained under mostly
aerobic conditions [10,11,3]
o Nitrous oxide (N2O) is only slightly increased
or sometimes reduced as use of N fertilizers is
reduced; N20 increases do not offset CH4
reductions, so GWP is reduced [9,10,11,12]
oTotal global warming potential (GWP) from
flooded rice paddies is reduced 20-30%
[10,12,3], even up to 73% [11]The System of Rice Intensification (SRI)… … is climate-smart rice production
SRI has over 700 published journal articles which can be found here: JOURNAL ARTICLES ABOUT THE SYSTEM OF RICE INTENSIFICATION (SRI)
Please note that yields per hectare are increased at the same time as the impact to AGW is reduced. You will also find that many of the outliers mentioned in the above quote are also the same outliers in yields too. In other words, the farmers that reduce emissions the most are also the same farmers yielding the most. (and the farmers sequestering the most carbon in the soil) And the farmers producing the record yields have little to no impact on AGW any longer at all. It can not be emphasized enough how important this breakthrough is, as the methane signature from rice cultivation goes back thousands of years according to the Ruddiman Early Anthropocene Hypothesis .
The next biggest agricultural component to methane increases is related to the way we currently practice animal husbandry. This component is primarily driven by reducing the natural processes that remove methane from the atmosphere. Since ruminants and other animals have been passing gas since the beginning of time, it is less an emissions problem but rather a symptom of soil degradation caused by the way we currently raise grains (largely to feed animals in confinement).
In my opinion methane is an animal husbandry problem primarily because of CAFO's. It is not a problem in a properly managed grassland/savanna biome. After all those biomes supported many millions and millions of grazers who were extirpated. The methane levels before they were extirpated were actually lower than now! According to the following studies those biomes actually reduce atmospheric methane due to the action of Methanotrophic microorganisms that use methane as their only source of energy and carbon. Even more carbon being pumped into the soil! Nitrogen too, as they are also free living nitrogen fixers.
Grasslands and their soils can be considered sinks for atmospheric CO2, CH4, and water vapor, and their
Cenozoic evolution a contribution to long-term global climatic cooling. Cenozoic Expansion of Grasslands and Climatic CoolingThe subsurface location of methanotrophs means that energy
requirements for maintenance and growth are obtained from
CH4 concentrations that are lower than atmospheric. Soil Microorganisms as Controllers of Atmospheric Trace Gases
(H2, CO, CH4, OCS, N2O, and NO)Upland (i.e., well-drained, oxic) soils are a net sink for atmospheric methane; as methane diffuses from the atmosphere into these soils, methane consuming (i.e., methanotrophic) bacteria oxidize it. IMPACT OF METHANOTROPH ECOLOGY ON UPLAND METHANE
BIOGEOCHEMISTRY IN GRASSLAND SOILSNevertheless, no CH4 was released when soil surface CH4 fluxes were measured simultaneously. The results thus demonstrate the high CH4 oxidation potential of the thin aerobic topsoil horizon in a non-aquatic ecosystem. Methane fluxes from differentially managed grassland study plots: the important role of CH4 oxidation in grassland with a high potential for CH4 production.
Of all the CH4 sources and sinks, the biotic sink strength is the most responsive to variation in human activities. Environmental impacts on the diversity of methane-cycling microbes and their resultant function
The CH4 uptake rate was only 20% of that in the woodland in an adjacent area that had been uncultivated for the same period but kept as rough grassland by the annual removal of trees and shrubs and, since 1960, grazed during the summer by sheep. It is suggested that the continuous input of urea through animal excreta was mainly responsible for this difference. Another undisturbed woodland area with an acidic soil reaction (pH 4.1) did not oxidize any CH4. Methane oxidation in soil as affected by land use, soil pH and N fertilization
I pulled a few quotes out to make my case, but I highly recommend you read the sources in their entirety and even find further educational materials, since this is a highly complex subject.
The main summary being, the current system used to raise animals in confinement has removed them from the farmland, where when managed properly their methane emissions are part of a larger agricultural system that oxidizes more methane than the animals emit. Since this biological oxidation of methane occurs below the soil surface where that carbon enters the soil food web, actually animals improve the BCCS systems even more than without them. This actually has been known for decades and is well vetted, but was never quantified for climate scientists. Sir Albert Howard, father of organic agriculture, noted this effect on soil biology (of removing farm animals from the land and replacing their impact with synthetic fertilizers) way back in the 1940s.
“As the small trickle of results grows into an avalanche — as is now happening overseas — it will soon be realized that the animal is our farming partner and no practice and no knowledge which ignores this fact will contribute anything to human welfare or indeed will have any chance either of usefulness or of survival.” Sir Albert Howard
In my honest opinion one reason for the recent spike in atmospheric methane is simply the fruition of Sir Albert Howard's dire prediction, since we continue to ignore this.
The third part of the link you submitted talks about increased emissions from natural wetlands. I am less familiar with this portion of their claims, but I can hypothesize that it could potentially be related in part to agricultural runoff causing anaerobic conditions (dead zones), since most decomposition under anaerobic conditions does produce large quantities of methane. Fertilizer Runoff Overwhelms Streams and Rivers--Creating Vast "Dead Zones" Ironically the "King Corn" lobby is so huge, that even though the above article from Scientific America admits the primary cause cropland runoff of synthetic nitrogen, they actually propose:
the only way to increase ethanol production from corn and reduce nitrogen runoff would be for Americans to stop eating meat, thereby freeing up corn used as livestock feed for other uses.
While also stating:
"That [also] means not utilizing all the land to grow crops."
Apparently they don't see the irony in these two statements. The solution of course is not to grow corn for ruminants at all and dramatically reduce its usage for other livestock. And not to use corn for ethanol production at all. (excepting a nice corn whiskey) There are other ways to feed animals and distill ethanol more efficiently than using "king corn" surpluses. So step one is to stop subsidizing the over production of corn and soy and changing our production models to more efficient regenerative models of production that don't cause AGW.
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John Hartz at 03:35 AM on 29 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
RedBaron: How do the research results described in the following article impact your position on the ability of biological carbon capture and storage to make a significant contribution to mitigating manmade climate change?
New research explores how wetlands and agriculture could be causing a global rise in methane by Sarah Honeycombe, Geo Space, AGU Blogosphere, Sep 27, 2016
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Tom Curtis at 02:23 AM on 29 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
Barry Woods, the "skeptical" use of the claim that CO2 is a trace gas as an argument goes from that premise directly to the conclusion that, either, CO2 cannot generate a greenhouse effect, or that changes in CO2 are too small in level to result in any change in the climate. There are not intermediate steps, or additional premises. "Skeptics" using that argument are therefore commited to the validity of the argument form:
"X is a trace quantity" ⇒ "X can have not impact on Y" for arbitrary Y.
However, if we take this argument form and substitute "Atmospheric CO2" for X, and "the growth of plants" for Y, we have an immediate counter example to the argument. As some "skeptics", including the provider of the sample quote in the "CO2 is a Trace Gas" rebutal, both assert the implicit argument and that CO2 is necessary for plants to stay alive; they both endorse the argument by use, and contradict it in another context.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please know that all of Barry Wood's future posts will be summarily deleted.
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Barry Woods at 01:37 AM on 29 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
That interpretation seems to be focusing of the use of more, ie more trace gas may benefit plants, but more co2 won't give a huge rise in temps.. these are 2 different topics... both could be true (even if not) not contradictory statements.. It is not contradictory use of more..
If we have to guess what John means, perhaps he could add, what he means in the comment part of contradictions page..
Additionally nobody it seems to be immune from contradictions, from the paper itself..
Lewandowsky, John Cook, Lloyd-Springer Philosphy. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-016-1198-6
A contradictory statement relates to the use of denialist, within a single paper: 3 statement are:
"…views in the “community” of denialists…"
"No such corrective processes can be observed in denialist discourse…"
"…incoherencies manifest in denialist discourse…"
The fourth use in a footnote, which states that:
"We use denial as a noun that describes a political or discursive activity but we avoid labels such as “denier” or “denialist” that categorize people."
They seem a little confused about who are the people who are incoherent and contradictory, by both simultaneously labelling/categorising a whole group of people as denialist or deniers, but simultaneously stating that they do no such thing. Perhaps John Cook can comment.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your privilege of posting comments on this website has been rescinded.
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RedBaron at 01:12 AM on 29 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
@Barry,
I can't answer for John, but I can submit my take on it. Those two are not contradictory on the surface, but climate deniers often use both in a contradictory context. ie CO2 is a plant food so more is better, and since CO2 is a trace gas more doesn't change the system to make it warm. It is too small a trace to effect anything.
In this case, climate deniers try to claim both that CO2 is increasing enough to effect plant growth positively, and at the same time claim CO2 is at such low levels, and we emit such a small % of that small %, it cant effect anything. It is self contradictory.
Context is everything. It is true that there is such a thing as the CO2 fertilization effect. It is one of many feedbacks. Unfortunately this feedback is not large enough to prevent CO2 from rising to levels that are causing global warming.
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Barry Woods at 22:46 PM on 28 September 2016How climate science deniers can accept so many 'impossible things' all at once
From th econtradictions refernece in the paper to SKs website.
The following table lists skeptic arguments that contradict each other. Please feel free to submit a new pair of contradicting arguments.
CO2 is just a trace gas - CO2 is plant food -John Cook
How do those 2 statements contradict each other?
This statement is one of the highlighted examples used in the paper.
Both these statements are "true". (essential for photosynthesis and ~0.04% of the atmosphere) perhaps John can explain why he thinks sceptics saying - CO2 is plant food - contradicts - CO2 is a trace gas. even if the same individual is saying it?
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John Hartz at 13:47 PM on 28 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
Digby Scorgie @6: To the best of my knowledge, the authors of the IPCC's Summaries for Policymakers are a combination of scientists and non-scientists from throughout the world. They do not all speak English so translations are required throughout the drafting process. The fact that the reports read as well as they do is a tribute to all involved.
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Tom Curtis at 11:15 AM on 28 September 2016New study undercuts favorite climate myth ‘more CO2 is good for plants’
Red Baron @38, you are correct. Thanks for picking up my slip.
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nigelj at 11:10 AM on 28 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
Red Baron @5
Thanks for your information. I have had a read of your more detailed summary on carbon capture in the soil, and the way to promote this, and what you say is quite compelling with a long list of research links.
However I don’t have any real specialist soil knowledge. The only soil science I have ever done is stage 1 (introductory) physical geography at university, long time ago but interesting paper that had a component on soils.
I would agree carbon capture is probably more acceptable to both conservatives and liberals than taxes or kicking the oil companies too directly.
I agree oil subsidies are absurd, given oil companies are profitable and established without the need for any additional help. Ideally subsidies should be switched to more useful things like carbon capture.
However this would still be a hard sell politically. It’s a case of favours to campaign supporters, something both democrats and conservatives are tied into. In other words it’s part of the American system where elections are funded by private sector donations. The democrats have tried to put a cap on this, or some limits, but it has been struck down by the courts as unconstitutional to limit donations, so its hard to see what the answer is. Of course some presidents are self funding like Trump, but that guy brings a whole lot of other problems. It's unlikely we would see a self funding president that’s universally admired, but hope springs eternal.
Back to soil capture. All quite promising practically and could possibly be sold politically despite my reservations, so good luck to you. However the problem is also time related. It would take a long time to make such a proposal have a tangible effect. However I'm being a "contrarian" on the issue here! If such systems also have other benefits as you claim, then that alone makes it worthwhile.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:49 AM on 28 September 2016IPCC special report to scrutinise ‘feasibility’ of 1.5C climate goal
Having studied the last SPM, I conclude that the IPCC didn't use any technical writers to create it, or if they did, the writers were not very skilful. (In case you're puzzled: BrE "skilful", AmE "skillful")
As a retired technical writer, I know that a small team of skilled technical writers would've created an SPM that was easily understood by politicians of all kinds, including those with little knowledge of science. Not only that, but such an SPM would have had a far greater impact.
This is not to denigrate the efforts of those who did write the SPM. It's just that very few scientists are good at writing for lay readers. Nor should one expect anything different, for this is the province of the technical writer, not the scientist. The job of the technical writer is to "translate" the science into language the lay reader can understand.
(My technical writing, incidentally, entailed "translating" engineering-speak into technician-speak!)
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