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Comments 32051 to 32100:

32051. Tom Curtis at 06:24 AM on 14 January 2015
       It's the sun
       

       TonyMo @1093 says:

       "The key to the truth is a characteristic of the temperature graph, which can be seen in any temperature record from around the world, and that is the falling temperature from the late 40’s to the early 80’s, which, according to the IPCC, was due to post WW” industrial pollution pumping tons of aerosols into the atmosphere, probably augmented by the hundreds of atmospheric tests of nuclear devices carried out during the same period."

       (My emphasis)

       Really?  Any temperature record at all?

       

       The Australian temperature seems to have risen more or less continuously since the 1930s.  Perhaps we use a different sun donw under?

       Indeed, speaking of "down under" more generally, ie, the Southern Hemisphere, it is interesting to compare the running thirty year trends of temperature with the running 30 year trends of TSI (normalized to show the same overal variance):

       

       The year shown is the start year of each thirty year trend.  From that we can see that while the trend was just negative in the years 1937 to 1939, from 1940 it goes positive and rises sharply to a peak prior to 1970.  It does not show the pattern TonyMo claims at all.

       It is even more informative to compare the temperature trends with the TSI trends.  They in fact show almost no correlations (R squared = 0.027), both because of the timing of change in overall trends differ and because of the residual solar cycle (due to using a 30 year rather than a 33 year mean).  That of course raises the question as to why is the temperature response to much larger variation in the solar cycle so small when the variations in mean TSI is supposed to have driven the large temperature increase over the twentieth century.

       Of course, one of the interesting things about using the SH is that aerosol pollution has a regionaly effect, and is primarilly produced in the NH.  That is, SH temperature variation has a relatively reduced impact from sulfates compared to the NH.

       In summary, the data cleary refutes TonyMo's claims, both in detail and as to his general conclusions.  It only remains to see if he has the integrity to admit that, and to admit that the Sun is not a major driver of twentieth century temperature changes.

32052. shoyemore at 05:38 AM on 14 January 2015
       Just when did humans first start affecting the climate?
       

       Plows, Plagues and Petroleum by William Ruddiman is an earlier version of his work, and it is worth searching for some of his Scientific American articles (at least one!) on Google.

       I am sure the above book supplants his earlier work, but it is still pricey, and P, P & P is available on Kindle.

32053. MA Rodger at 02:26 AM on 14 January 2015
       Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
       

       dvaytw @268.

       You present Figure 1c from Hansen et al (2005) "Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications". (Trenberth did not co-author.) The caption for Figure 1 in that paper runs as follows:-

       Fig. 1. (A) Forcings used to drive global climate simulations. (B) Simulated and observed temperature change. Before 1900, the observed curve is based on observations at meteorological stations and the model is sampled at the same points, whereas after 1900 the observations include sea surface temperatures for the ocean area, and the model is the true global mean. (C) Net radiation at the top of the atmosphere in the climate simulations. Five climate simulations are carried out that differ only in initial conditions.

32054. dvaytw at 01:18 AM on 14 January 2015
       Trenberth on Tracking Earth’s energy: A key to climate variability and change
       

       Can anyone briefly explain to me how Trenberth's graph goes back to the late 19th century, if he's using satellite measurements from the TOA that have only been taken in recent decades:
       
       

32055. Ochiudo at 01:03 AM on 14 January 2015
       The Debunking Handbook: now freely available for download
       

       Great resource! It's a pity that it's only available in PDF format, an .epub or .mobi version would be greatly appreciated!

32056. billthefrog at 23:04 PM on 13 January 2015
       Corrosive Seawater, Not Low pH, Implicated As Cause of Oyster Deaths
       

       Rob,

       In your moderator response to Stephen Baines and Doug Mackie (#37) on the recent pHraud thread, you wrote a comment (dated 11th Jan) stating that

       " ...  you (and Stephen) make a good point that either manner of calcification is impeded by the decline in carbonate ion abundance. Still, it gives me a opportunity to write about coral calcification & OA."

       So the obvious question is "what the hell took you so long?"    ;)

       More seriously, in your "before and after" photo in Fig 1, would I be correct in thinking that the "after" exhibit is possessed of the characteristic reduced C13 ratio associated with a biogenic carbon burp?

       Cheers  Bill F

32057. Ger at 20:51 PM on 13 January 2015
       Not pHraud but pHoolishness
       

       @18, The trick of Chemistry is called entropy. Which reaction will occur depends on the entropy of the mixture, its temperature but will always strive to get  S>0.

       Would that help as an answer why some reactions are "preferred" over others?

32058. Nick Stokes at 17:22 PM on 13 January 2015
       Corrosive Seawater, Not Low pH, Implicated As Cause of Oyster Deaths
       

       I see I didn't use the right method for links. The acidification calculator is here

32059. Nick Stokes at 17:15 PM on 13 January 2015
       Corrosive Seawater, Not Low pH, Implicated As Cause of Oyster Deaths
       

       I don't think the headline here helps. The sea-water isn't corrosive, it just has reduced carbonate, which makes it harder to gain and hold solid CaCO3. But the paper seems to attack strawmen. I don't think anyone thought pH or CO2 were the direct agents. But in normal seawater, both are directly linked to carbonate. There are just two dof in the equilibrium. One thing that remains fixed as CO2 is added is total alkalinity, and so adding CO2 necessarily reduces pH and CO2.

       You might be able to separate the link by varying TA artificially, but I can't see the point.

       There is a gadget to demonstrate the linkage here.

       Moderator Response:

       (Rob P) - As the Barton et al (2012) paper linked to in the blog post states:

       "We report results from an oyster hatchery on the Oregon coast, where intake waters experienced variable carbonate chemistry (aragonite saturation state , 0.8 to . 3.2; pH , 7.6 to . 8.2) in the early summer of 2009."

       So the hatcheries were, at times, taking in seawater that was undersaturated with respect to aragonite and therefore physically corrosive to the larval oyster. The changing seawater chemistry would likely have had detrimental effects on the oyster larvae well before the water became corrosive to them. 

       I don't understand your claim about the paper attacking strawmen. The only way to disentangle the physical mechanisms through which marine calcification is affected by ocean acidification is to conduct experiments to elucidate these details. Relying on general, untested, assumptions isn't science. 

32060. william11409 at 16:31 PM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       billthefrog.  Unfortunately I may well be banned if I reply to your comment as you can see from the Moderator's conmment at 40.  I'm not sure why my replying to comments is viewed as "skating on thin ice for stating my position multiple times"  as my replies necessitate  a re-statement of what I said previously.  I would however point out to you that I gave a reference to the BBC in my reply at  32. 

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] This discussion has been exhausted and exhausting for everyone particpating in it. Please move on.

       BTW, moderation complaints are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy. Therefore, you are now skating on a new area of thn ice.  

32061. billthefrog at 10:31 AM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       @ William

       
       The Telegraph blog by Brendan O’Neill that you linked in #24 appears to be little more than a blatant attempt at misdirection. Should anyone care to look, the Green Party has Climate Change located very prominently in their Values Statement. (Near the top RHS of the linked page, if it isn't prominent enough for some. ;))

       
       As action on Climate Change is so central to their core values, someone reporting the fact that, given the opportunity, the Greens would wish to remove obstacles to this agenda is tantamount to making a statement of the bleedin' obvious. In fact, it would have been seriously noteworthy if the Green Party did NOT have a statement to this effect. (The clue, afterall, is in the name of the party!)

       
       In his blog, O'Neill correctly states that this understandable wish to remove Climate Change deniers from positions of influence in Government is contained within the Green's 10 point flood response action plan. For whatever reason, O'Neill chooses to characterise this as follows..." at the very top of the plan is the proposal that all senior advisers who do not accept the “findings of climate scientists” should be ditched, thrown out of office, expelled from public life effectively. "

       
       Some people (no names, no pack drill) will obviously accept anything they read in a blog such as O'Neill's as Holy Scripture, just as long as it agrees with their own prejudices. However, as anyone prepared to exercise a modicum of genuine scepticism can easily see (here), the statement of intent to remove deniers from positions wherein they can block progress is actually number 3 on the 10 point list - not "at the very top". Leaving aside O'Neill's hollow rhetoric, unless the numbering in the action plan has recently been revised, it would appear that he finds counting all the way to 3 somewhat challenging. (Point number 9 is also worth looking at, as it is in a similar vein.) 

       
       With an unwitting irony that will be apparent to many SkS readers, O'Neill proceeds to make comparisons with McCarthyism. Considering that Michael Mann is central to the OP (and is mentioned by name no fewer than 4 times in William's comments) this presents a serendipitous symmetry. Whilst he was still Attorney General in Virginia, Ken Cuccinelli attracted just such a comparison with his politically motivated witch hunt of Michael Mann.

       
       Perhaps William may care to share his views on Cuccinelli's tactics viz-a-viz Mann's period at the University of Virginia?

32062. DSL at 07:35 AM on 13 January 2015
       Things I thought were obvious!
       

       Indeed, if you're willing to ask a question like that, then you should ask, "How many people are alive today as a result of the development of a fossil energy-based economy, an economy that is inherently unsustainable?"

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] fixed text

32063. DSL at 07:33 AM on 13 January 2015
       Things I thought were obvious!
       

       Adrian, probably a tiny fraction of the amount of food that is wasted by middle class culture that has blossomed as a result of the cheap, widely-available, and heavily-subsidized emergence of fossil energy.

32064. adrian smits at 06:54 AM on 13 January 2015
       Things I thought were obvious!
       

       I wonder how many people on earth are alive today because of the extra carbon dioxide in the air causing increases in crop yeilds and thereby less famine?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please cite the source of your sweeping claim that extra carbon dioxide in the air has caused increases in crop yield and thereby less famine. 

       [PS] And any further discussion of this claim should be done on the "CO2 is plant food" myth article

32065. John Hartz at 06:54 AM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Moderator's Comment

       William:

       You have stated your points multiple times on this comment thread. You are therefore skating on the thin ice of excessive repetition which is prohibited the SkS Comments Policy. If you wish to keep this dialogue moving forward. it's time for you to move on to new points. 

32066. Tom Dayton at 06:34 AM on 13 January 2015
       It's the sun
       

       TonyMo, at the top of this page, click the "Intermediate" tab.  After you read that tabbed pane, click the "Advanced" tab and read that tabbed pane. 

       Several researchers have tried different durations of lag between solar input to Earth and Earth's temperature, and they all have found nothing like what you claim.

       In addition, there are other aspects of warming that are incompatible with your assertion.  For example, in the Advanced tabbed pane, read the sections "Inability to Explain Empirical Observations" and "Conservation of Energy."

32067. scaddenp at 06:30 AM on 13 January 2015
       It's the sun
       

       TonyMo. Your description of TSI reconstruction doesnt match the graph above nor more recent reconstructions (more). "began oscillating"?? Solar physics and sunspot observation would suggest the 11 yr oscillation has persisted much much longer than that. Perhaps you should provide a link to the graph that you are looking at?

32068. Daniel Bailey at 05:50 AM on 13 January 2015
       It's the sun
       

       @ TonyMo
       
       What part of "the CEAMT is not a global record" is not understood by you?

32069. william11409 at 02:56 AM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       One Planet Only Forever@37 and 38.  Not entirely sure why you comment on Professional and Trade Certification.  However if, as it seems, you are applying it to politicians, as far as I know there is no certification saying they are qualifiied politicians.   Certainly many Ministers are not qualified in the areas their Ministry covers.  And as there isn't a special qualification for politicians, the views and likes and dislikes of UK Greens politicians are no more valid and deserve no more attention than those of politicians in any other party except, of course, the party that is in power.

       Moderator  Am I allowed to ask if you are you able and/or willing to advise what happened to my comment at 34?

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Your comment was deleted by another moderator. He has not yet specified the reason for doing so. I presume he will do so when he sees this exchange. 

32070. One Planet Only Forever at 01:11 AM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       William, I forgot to include that Professions and Trades actually have an initial period of training and evaluation that must be successfully completed before a person is considered to be eligible to do the work. All that the Green Party seem to be doing is trying to at least have some minimal assessment of competence of a leader in an important role. The popularity of 'arguments against requiring people in positions of leadership to be legitmately evaluated regarding their competency' needs some serious evaluation. Nothing good can be expected to develop if that type of thinking can be popular.

32071. One Planet Only Forever at 01:03 AM on 13 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       William,

       Your position would appear to extend to a belief that there is no need for any Professional certification or Trade Skill certrification. That would be patently absurd, yet it does appear to be what you are arguing to defend, the freedom of people to do important things regardless of any legitimate assessment of their ability to responsibly and competently do those tasks. Professions and Trades workers are constantly monitored regarding how competentaly and responsibly they are doing their work. And anyone found to be lacking is helped to do better. And anyone unable to or reluctant to be helped to do the work well has their certification credentials cancelled.

32072. TonyMo at 23:16 PM on 12 January 2015
       It's the sun
       

        The scaling of the graphs is disguising the true facts. ‘Oh really’ I hear you say! Yes really I say to you.
       The key to the truth is a characteristic of the temperature graph, which can be seen in any temperature record from around the world, and that is the falling temperature from the late 40’s to the early 80’s, which, according to the IPCC, was due to post WW” industrial pollution pumping tons of aerosols into the atmosphere, probably augmented by the hundreds of atmospheric tests of nuclear devices carried out during the same period. This pollution was reduced by changes in global legislation in the early 1980’s.
       Now, according to the reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), solar irradiance began to increase in the late 1980’s and using Central England Annual Mean Temperature (CEAMT) data available from the Met Office, it can be seen that temperature began increasing at the same time. Both parameters continued to the late 1940’s when TSI continued to increase but CEAMT began to fall.
       TSI stabilised in the mid to late 50’s and began oscillating in the 11 year Schwabe cycles, so when the atmospheric pollution was reduced during the 80’s, CEAMT began to rapidly rise playing ‘catch up’ with TSI, a rapid rise which caused so much concern and was the birth of Global Warming. However, had the ‘man made’ period of falling temperatures not occurred CEAMT would most likely to have continued rising until the 60’s when it would of levelled out and stabilised with TSI.
       Further connection with the sun can be achieved by not only comparing the CEAMT data with TSI but from 1929, with England Annual Hours of Sunshine (Sunshine being when a minimum of 120W/m2 can be measured on the surface.) where you will find a very unexpected level of correlation.
       All this data is freely available from the Net and the Met office and can easily be graphed in Excel – give it a try.
       Good luck. TonyMo

32073. william11409 at 23:13 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Tom Curtis @34 and MA Rodger@35.  Thanks for your comments unfortunately I can't erespond as the post "William @34" mentioned by Tom Curtis (also at 34) has disappeared and I din't keep a record. Of  ourse not having kept a record I have no idea why my comment at 34 was deleted but I'm sure it was for a very good reason or pehaps it was a glitch in the system. However,  I do wonder why it wasn't deleted before both of you replied at the new 34 and 35.  

32074. MA Rodger at 21:51 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       It is strange that william tries to make out that the attacks on Mann are equivalent to the attack by Natalie Bennett on denialism in UK politics. The two situations are so very different.

       Mann is expressly discussing attacks on "individual scientists." Bennett attacks "any cabinet ministers or senior governmental advisers." so definitely not just one person.

       And individual scientists do not have any collective responsibility yet cabinet government does. As for the advisors, the point has been made already that government probably shouldn't be taking scientific advice from people who holds fantasy views on climate, or anything else for that matter.

       Chief Veterinary Officer, Nigel Gibbens will be expected to give advice on diseases spread by rising temperatures, now and into the future. Thus his beliefs are directly relevant.

       Unlike scientists, politicians often do their best to be all things to all men. My own MP, Mr Burns, a Tory back-bencher, does a reasonable job sitting on the fence on climate although with significant symptoms to suggest he is actually in deep climate denial. And that is very common within the right-wing of the UK Tory party. Owen Paterson, the then-cabinet minister Bennett was particularly aiming at, addressing the denialist GWPF after he had left cabinet was still speaking with a level of ambiguity.

       "Despite all this, I remain open-minded to the possibility that climate change may one day turn dangerous."

       Without the present coalition partners, that denialist Tory right wing would have far more influence in a Tory UK government. Yet when the UK goes to the polls in May this year, will any of the soon-to-be-elected Tory MPs be telling their electorate "Vote for me. I'm a climate change denier."?

       So the two situations are actually back-to-front. Mann was discussing being attacked surreptitiously for his explicit scientific message. Bennett was explicitly attacking what are political views held surreptitiously.

32075. Tom Curtis at 21:39 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       william @34:

       First, as a matter of logic, the Greens' opinion is only an attempt "to muzzle those that do not agree with their view" if they are quite happy for a minister to be a denier, so long as they do not communicate that fact with anybody.  I think you will find that is not their position, and it is certainly not their stated position.  If, from the Green's point of view, the key issue is belief rather than commentary, it is not an attempt to restrict commentary but to ensure that relevant ministers and advisers are actually aware of what the problem is, and its urgency; and consequently can be counted on to assess the possible impact of, and appropriate response to, global warming as it impacts their portfolio.

       Second, Ministers do not set policy without reference to cabinet, nor cabinet without reference to the party room.  The idea that you can split of some office or ministry and say that the members of that ministery do not have any influence on climate change related policies is absurd.

       Third, I think there are some areas in which you can look at a persons beliefs and deduce from them that if they hold that belief, than any competence or accuracy of belief they may show in other areas is entirely accidental.  Thus, if I discover that somebody genuinely believes in a flat earth, I know that their beliefs are not guided by evidence.  Even on other topics where they appear to be evidence guided, I know that there is some trigger which in them will result in entirely evidence free beliefs.  I don't know what that trigger is, so it is from my perspective, entirely a matter of good fortune that they do not have similarly evidence free beliefs on child care, or AIDS, or immunizations, or whatever - and nor do I know that whatever the significant factor is will not be triggered in the future.

       So, as a rule of thumb, I would be very happy with a requirement that no flat earthers be appointed to ministerial or senior government advisory positions.  This in no way represents an attempt to limit anybodies speach about flat eartherism.  It does represent a desire to have competent, and reliably competent ministers and advisors.  It is on a par with some other desiderata of mine, ie,

       • That ministers be able to follow basic arithmetic (algebra preferably, but I am realistic enough to know that standard would never be enforced);
       • That ministers be able to sting grammatical sentences together;
       • That ministers be able to follow a syllogism (probably also too much to ask given various encumbents around the world);
       • That ministers have a basic understanding of economics.

       The list does extend a bit, but you get the point.

       Given the above, the simple fact is that some forms of climate change denial are on a par with flat earthism in terms of intellectual merit.  Most importantly of these are, any view that denies there is a greenhouse effect, and any view that denies human responsibility for the recent increases in CO2 concentration.  So, IMO, any person believing either of these thereby shows they are incompetent to be either ministers or senior government advisors.  The UK Green's may take a different, more stringent view of this competance test than I do - and if they do, that is their right, and their right to express it.

32076. Tom Curtis at 18:12 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       william @32, the fact of the matter is that climate change denial is a sign of incompetence.  It is particularly a sign of incompetence in a minister of state who is, as part of their office, supposed to seek the best advice on a subject and act on that advice.  A minister who is a climate change denier, by the fact that they are a denier, rejects the best advice on the topic, ie, that from the IPCC and therefore is incompetent.

       When you have a minister of defence rejecting defence department advice based on the advise of a medium, people would call for their sacking.  There is no free speach issue involved in that.  We don't want ministers who prefer private, idiosyncratic and crackpot advise over that of relevant experts.  It is the same with climate science.  End of story.

32077. william11409 at 17:40 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       John Hartz  Here is the policy document from the UK Greens as reported by the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26187711)

        A policy document released by the party said: "Get rid of any cabinet ministers or senior governmental advisers who refuse to accept the scientific consensus on climate change or who won't take the risks to the UK seriously."  

       Phil@28   This is also from the BBC report

       Ms Bennett added: "It's an insult to flood victims that we have an Environment Secretary (Owen Paterson) who is a denier of the reality of climate change and we also can't have anyone in the cabinet who is denying the realities that we're facing with climate change.  

32078. william11409 at 16:56 PM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       John Hartz.  Your sincere hope is realised.  Newspapers of choice are The Independent and Guardian.

32079. Jim Eager at 10:02 AM on 12 January 2015
       2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #2B
       

       Aldo Rebelo, Brazil's new minister of science, technology and innovation, sounds like he's channeling fellow old-school Marxist Martin Durkin, producer of the infamous The Great Global Warming Swindle. Can't have the glorious worker and peasant proletariat..., I mean humanity blamed for global warming, can we.

32080. John Hartz at 09:51 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Phil: The Telegraph article that william links to is strong on rhetoric and light on documentation and quotes. Regardless, I sincerely hope that william does not exclusively rely on the Telegraph for information about politics in the UK.

32081. scaddenp at 09:02 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       "As for false information being spread, surely it is just being put out there for discussion. Isn't it?"

       No. Plain and simple. The "misinformation" only seems reasonable to those who would like to believe it and without sufficient domain knowledge to spot it is wrong. Scientific discussion takes place in journals. Tom has given you an example of Drapela. Can you be seriously defending his position? Another example here. If you want an academic discussion on this outside of journals, then you would repeat this type of presentation to your peers at a conference. Happens all the time in genuine scientific debate. Got an example of a climate misinformer repeating their stuff to a room full of climate scientists?

32082. Phil at 08:37 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       @21 William, your suggestion that UK DEFRA secretary of state Owen Paterson's sacking was somehow orchestrated by the Green Party is not even supported by Owen Paterson himself. He states

       However, I leave the post with great misgivings about the power and irresponsibility of – to coin a phrase – the Green Blob.

       By this I mean the mutually supportive network of environmental pressure groups, renewable energy companies and some public officials who keep each other well supplied with lavish funds, scare stories and green tape.

       Source. He did, elsewhere, blame this "Green Blob" for his dismissal, but note that his definition does not include political parties.

       Since the UK Green Party has practically no poltical power (1 MP out of 625) and no influence on the current UK Government (a Conservative-Liberal coalition) the idea that they can influence a Ministers career is somewhat fanciful, whatever Paterson may think.

       The Green party, like any party is free to float policy ideas, such the one you mentioned on political advisors, and the populace have the right to vote on those ideas - which doesn't sounds very Orwellian to me. But, for the moment, it seems the idea hasn't made it to their manifesto.

32083. Tom Curtis at 08:36 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       PW inline @24, some of the "inappropriate language" in the CRU hack emails only has the appearance of being inappropriate by being quoted out of context.  As Richlieu purportedly said:

       "If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him."

       It is a tribute to the integrity of the CRU hack victims that, having been furnished with tens of thousands of words spoken in private, the modern day Richlieu's can scarcely find six words altogether on which to build their spurious cases (and have been caught out fraudulently altering graphics* in order to make their case against the CRU hack victims appear stronger)

       *Steve McIntyre may have simply used a low resolution html image rather than the high resolution PDF available.  That being the case, he is simply caught out making bold, libelous accusations based on non-original data, known not to be sufficient to determine the case rather than making fraudulent alterations.  The same defence cannot be made by the Mail on Sunday.

32084. Tom Curtis at 08:12 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       william, I am frankly astonished at your introduction of a statement by the UK Greens to the discussion as something that should not be said, because saying it supresses free speach.  Can you not see the irony in your position?  Apparently, in your opinion, there is a range of political views that cannot be expressed, because expressing them violates the principles of free speech.  And let us be clear on this, the UK Greens is a political party, and who is and is not fit to be a minister is a political issue.

       Regarding teaching, I am of the firm opinion that teaching at universities should always teach the consensus position, and show why it is a reasonable position from the evidence.  Where there is no single consensus position, all major views should be taught, and why they are reasonable positions should also be taught (but this is not relevant in climate science in which their is a clear consensus o attribution if not on more detailed issues).  Having done that, the teacher should be free to point out that they disagree with the consensus position, and why they think their view is also reasonable.  A teacher who portrays a consensus position as not having reasonable epistemic grounds is doing their students a disservice and, prima facie, indulging in indoctrination by evading evidence that has clearly convinced a majority (indeed, a super majority) of their peers.  Drapela, Carter and Salby have all violated this principle either in formal teaching, or in informal teaching.

       By your comments on your own teaching, you appear to have practised this principle and agree with it.  Yet you gloss over Drapela's clear violation of that principle!  Once again, Drapela in his presentation did not present an iota of the very large amount of evidence in favour of the consensus view of climate change.  Rather, he simply charged acceptors of that theory of doing so for some combination of financial gain, notoriety or gain of political influence.  Further, he treated the mere charge of that reason as itself a refutation of the consensus position in a clear non-sequitur.  Finally, in presenting his own opinion, the only evidence he presented was clearly dated, and refuted by later evidence.  Please state clearly why you think that sort of propaganda is acceptable by anyone, least of all a university professor?

32085. william11409 at 08:07 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       PW Of course. unfortunately I responded to the introduction of the topic by scaddenp@23 without realising I should not have done so. That said, you are very free to steal any and all of my emails as they are very mundane indeed

32086. william11409 at 07:05 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       John Hartz-apologies a typographical error I will not repeat. See here for UK Greens amazing policy statements (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/brendanoneill2/100259728/are-you-now-or-have-you-ever-been-a-climate-change-sceptic/}

       Phil@21 I live in the UK and really don't need to be told what is and what isn't happening here politically.  DSL@22 I taught biochemistry and endocrinology.  scaddenp@23.  Not sure the climategate emails are the best thing to introduce on this particular forum dealing with freedom of speech, considering the comments made in those emails about how to treat journals and their editors.  As for false information being spread, surely it is just being put out there for discussion.  Isn't it?  Just because the "authorities" claim one thing it isn'rt necessarily always entirely the case.  

       Moderator Response:

       [PW] No discussion is really needed to address the so-called Climategate emails: no fewer than 7 independent studies have shown there to be NO credible error in their data, or the analysis, thereof. Was there some inappropriate language, used by the *humans* who were involved? Yes. May we steal your private correspondence and peruse it? I think we'd likely find verbiage you'd likely not want made public. 

       To close this comment: When the data shown in all the so-called Climategate emails, *none* were found to have been false, misrepresented, or outright wrong. I hope this ends this discussion about a dead horse that ong ago has been flogged to death.

       [JH] Link activated. 

32087. scaddenp at 06:07 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Universities should indeed welcome differing views and robust debate certainly goes on in climate circles (eg witness the "climategate" emails which would be robust enough for anyone). Other obvious examples would be the hypothesis that jet streams are influenced by polar melting, causes for Antarctic sea ice expansion, effect of GW on ENSO, effect of GW on hurricanes, on tornados, effect of meltwater of ice sheet dynamics etc.

       What you dont expect in university environment is pulmagation of misinformation and crackpot theories from people with little to no background in climate science who are informed from their political values and not by even textbook physics.

       What would you make of someone who continues to spread false information to an uninformed public when it is clear that they have been shown that the presentation is misleading and/or wrong and do not hold those views when talking to a professional audience? Does that strike you as the actions of a responsible academic?

32088. DSL at 05:48 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       @William: William, your comment does nothing to weaken Tom's response to you.  You simply don't recognize his primary points in your responses.  

       Tom: "So in response to William's rhetorical question, I would have to say that Universities should welcome the airing of well presented, scientific views supported by data which the person discussing the topic has taken every effort to ensure is accurate, up to date and germain. On the other hand they should take a very dim view of staff discussing outside their discipline and teaching by example that conspiracy theories are an adequate substitute for scientific rebutal, and that cherry picked falsified data are permissible means of supporting your "science"."
       
       William, what did you teach at university?  I ask so that I can establish a basis for useful illustration of your method.

32089. Phil at 05:41 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       And as for ministers being sacked if they don't conform to the thinking to which the Greens consider they should conform, that is bordering on the sort of society satirised by George Orwell in "1984".

       The suggestion that the UK Green Party has any influence over UK government policy shows a woeful ignorance of the current political situation in the UK.

32090. william11409 at 05:30 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       John Hart  Point  taken I need to replace  Solely  with pre-dominantly.  As for sloganeering well you're the moderator but the UK Greens are attempting to suppress freedom of speech i much the same way Professor Mann claims ""It is difficult to take on an entire group of scientists at once," Mann explains. "But bringing down individuals is easier, and it serves the larger effort of dismissing, obscuring, and misrepresenting well-established science and its implications. What’s more, these highly visible tactics create such a negative atmosphere that other scientists are discouraged from conveying their research’s implications to the public.

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please provide specific examples to back-up your sweeping claims about the UK's Green Party.

       Also, please spell my last name correctly.

32091. One Planet Only Forever at 04:51 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Another more general presentation of my previous post:

       Leaders should be striving to better understand what is going on and be striving to develop a sustainable better future for all. That action would include striving to ensure the better understanding of what is going on is better understood by the entire population. Anyone in a leadership role who does not share that ethos needs to be understood by everyone to be a threat to the advancement of society. The observations of what is going and has been going on are well explained by that understanding of what is going on.

       Everyone under the leaders should also share that ethos for the same reasons. And those who are best at understanding and developing further understanding and who work to effectively properly inform and educate the entire population (help everyone understand what is going on), need to be recognized as the best leaders.

       People with an area of specialization that would become the focus of their efforts should still apply the concept of striving to best understand what is going on to everything they think about and do.

       So when a person who 'has no reason not to know better' is discovered to willfully persistently fight deceptively against the development of the better understanding of what is going on they need to be kept from having significant influence, for the good of the future of humanity and all other life on this amazing planet.

       The 'freedom' argument only defends a person's choices. It does not mean they have to be allowed to succeed by being able to be in positions of significant influence. It is very dangerous to try to isolate Freedom from responsible considerate activity. If society did that, chaos would ensue. That is why we have speeding limits rather than letting everyone drive the way they wish and only punishing them after they caused a problem only if we can prove beyond a doubt that they should have known better. I present that case, and drunk driving is another one, because in those cases the one who caused the problem may at least suffer a penalty. This climate change delay game has no such opportunity to penalize he deliberate trouble makers. How do today's generations get compensated from the previous generations who did nothing through these past 25 years? How do we extract the penalty from groups like the previous generatons of Canadians who chose to benefit from increasing CO2 emission 25% from 1990 levels by 2005 as well as increasing the amount of benefit they get from selling stuff that gets burned in other nations. The Canadian position now is they will match the US post 2005 goal of 17% reduction by 2020. For the US that means getting back to 1990 levels by 2020. For Canada that means staying 8% above 1990 levels and selling even more stuff to burn elsewhere. And Canada is very unlikely to even meet the 17% reduction commitment. What should the thoughts be about 'that type of leadership'? They should have the freedom to get away with it if they can?

32092. John Hartz at 04:42 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Moderator's Comment

       William: Your "Afterthought" comment was deleted in its entirety because it was nothing more than inflamatory sloganeering.

32093. william11409 at 04:30 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       The phrase "human consumption of fossil fuels is the sole reason for AGW"  should read "human consumption of fossil fuels is the sole reason for global warming"

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Please cite a specific example of a climate scientist who has asserted, "human consumption of fossil fuels is the sole reason for global warming".

32094. william11409 at 04:03 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       Tom Curtis you're correct on Bob Carter at JCU not Macquarie.  Whilewriting I was thnking of Prof Salby but left him out as I didn't think he really fitted. I wrote Drapela but the spell interferer on Word altered it to Draper and I didn't check carefully enoiugh.  Phillippe Chantreau and Tom Curtis, I taught in a University for just over 33 years reaching the position of Professor and certainly at my university contrarian views on many things were put forward.  Universities are of course the places were controversy is or should be  brought up and discussed civilly.  I used to tell my students each year that some of the concepts in Biochemistry might well be proven wrong by next year but at the moment I was presenting the current thinking. And of course one man's garbage may be another man's treasure. And as for ministers being sacked if they don't conform to the thinking to which  the Greens consider they should conform, that is bordering on the sort of society satirised by George Orwell in "1984".  Of course univerities will say they dismissed an academic for whatever reason, it may not always be the real reason and who can prove otherwise?  

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Inflamatory sloganeering snipped. Plesse comply with the SkS Comments Policy in your future posts.

32095. One Planet Only Forever at 02:49 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       In rebuttal to William's comment about what Universities should do, and connecting it with the information shared by Tom Curtis (and Tamino):

       Drapela's presentation can be seen to be based on chosing some 'valid' points about this issue and abusing them to present a clearly deceptive and openly disingenuous appeal to people inclined to be impressed by that type of made-up claim.

       There is no doubt that the required action to limit human impacts must apply to all people. All trhe caring people doing everythingtheycan will nt solve this issue because the uncaring being free to do as they please make the problem bigger. So the Power needs to curtail those unacceptable freedoms. However, that isn't quite the way it got presented.

       As for the science part, the target audience would obviously not care about the legitimacy of the presentation on the science.

       Universities are the places for leading the development of the best understanding of what is going on. So it is totally appropriate for a University to not want to support willful efforts to limit or delay or deliberately counteract the development of the better understanding of what is going on.

       Similarly, industry and government is the leadership of society to an advanced better future for all. That clearly needs to be done based on the best understanding of what is going on. Anyone who is unwilling to better understand what is going on, or who deliberetely tries to get away with known to be unacceptable behaviour, or tries to limit or delay the required actions to advance society, or tries to counteract the development of the better understanding among the population should indeed "Not be allowed to hold or pursue a position of leadership".

32096. amhartley at 02:12 AM on 12 January 2015
       There is no consensus
       

       That helps, Tom.

       In fairness to Forbes, it is good to see them publishing a pro-environment perspective, too:

       http://www.forbes.com/sites/fayeflam/2015/01/09/four-reasons-to-worry-about-anthropogenic-global-warming-independent-of-what-97-of-scientists-believe/

32097. PhilippeChantreau at 00:34 AM on 12 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       WIlliam says "Surely a University with any credibility should welcome the airing of differing views." This is nonsense and a quite common fallacy thrown around by pseudo-skeptics. A differing view does not have validity just by virtue of its differing. All universities welcome valid views, regardless how different. Having an open mind does not mean one should clutter it with garbage.

32098. Tom Curtis at 23:19 PM on 11 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       William @10 skates very quickly through some faux controversies regarding the dissassociation between certain professors known to have contrarian views on climate and their universities.  In every case he mentions, the university has denied the association was dissolved due to the persons views on climate, but William uncritically accepts the views of the contrarian on this, rather than the stated views of those in the know.  Further, he gets the facts wrong in both cases.  Bob Carter was Adjunct Professor at James Cook University (in northern Queensland), not at Macquarie University (in Sydney, New South Wales).  And Nicholas Drapela (not Draper) was informed that his contract would not be renewed, he was not sacked.

       What intrigues me is William's view that, "Surely a University with any credibility should welcome the airing of differing views".  As it happens, Drapela's "differing views" still survive on the internet, in the from of 80 slides from a 2008 talk.  The tone is easilly determined by considering slide 8:

       

       This is not atypical.  Indeed, the first 77 slides contain an indepth diatribe against climate science as being promoted by scientists and media personalities for notoriety and money, which is provided by government to further its assault on freedom.  He does take the time, however, to swipe at the Oregone State University (his employer) for founding an "Oregon Climate Change Research Institute" for the purposes of garnering more money (slides 11 &12).

       Of course, Drapela does (eventually) get of the conspiracy theories and starts discussing science.  On slide 77 he asks "If not CO2, then what?".  At that stage, however, he has not given one reason why not CO2.  Not a scintilla of science has crossed his path.  But all the science behind climate science is swept away as irrelevant because he wants to spin a conspiracy theory.

       But he does get onto his two slides of "skeptical" science eventually, with the first presenting his theory (solar fluctuations modulated by cosmic rays), and the second presenting the evidence in support of the theory:

       

       That is right.  His evidence is a graph from a 1991 paper, that was refuted by one of its coauthors in 1999, nine years before Drapela used it as the only scientific "data" in an 80 slide talk on cimate change.

       So in response to William's rhetorical question, I would have to say that Universities should welcome the airing of well presented, scientific views supported by data which the person discussing the topic has taken every effort to ensure is accurate, up to date and germain.  On the other hand they should take a very dim view of staff discussing outside their discipline and teaching by example that conspiracy theories are an adequate substitute for scientific rebutal, and that cherry picked falsified data are permissible means of supporting your "science".

       Perhaps William could clariffy his view?  Does he believe the openness of universities to debate should mean the complete dropping of any intellectual standards to make that debate possible?  Or should they perhaps require of their staff that they conduct scientific debates scientifically?

        

       h/t to Tamino, from whom you can get the link to the slides.

32099. michael sweet at 23:06 PM on 11 January 2015
       Sea level rise is exaggerated
       

       Whsmith,

       Perhaps looking at pictures of beaches at low tide do not show the sea level rise much.  As Tom states, it has only been 4 inches and they are used to meters of tidal range there.  I note many pictures show beach erosion and cliff retreat, but I do not know if the cliffs were eroding before the war.

       If you looked a little harder you might find a reference like this which documents the increase in sediment accretion of salt marshes in Normandy, France over the past 120 years.  The marshes must accumulate sediment to keep ahead of sea level rise.  These marshes are expanding since more area is salty now due to sea level rise.

32100. Phil at 21:45 PM on 11 January 2015
       Climate Deniers Employ Predatory Tactics in Fight Against Facts: Scientist
       

       William @10

       Does he consider Owen Paterson, the UK Environmental Secretary, should have been sacked from his position as he was less than totally supportive of AGW?

       Firstly note that "Environment Secretary" is a post that doesn't exist. Paterson was secretary of state for DEFRA. As such he was never in charge of climate change policy, which is the remit of DECC (Minister Ed Davey). The asssertion that Paterson was sacked because of his views on climate change, is one that Paterson has made, but remains unconfirmed by Government. In the UK, that speech was was generally interpretted as "sour grapes" from a minister widely seen as incompetent and out of touch over policies, such as his handling of the 2014 flooding of the Somerset Levels and Badger culling (to handle bovine TB)

       UK Greens to call for the sacking of "any cabinet Ministers or senior governmental advisors who refuse to accept the scientific consensus on climate change or who won’t take the risks to the UK seriously"?

       Do you then you feel it is acceptable for Ministers of State to dismiss any risk without proper investigation ? If not what do you think the word "seriously" means ?

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