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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Ok, JH - copying the comment over now.
Moderator Response:[JH] Muchas gracias.
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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Kishoreragi, to add to Michael's comment: that is the way general circulation modeling is done. The Earth itself is one big experiment, and it has been well-demonstrated that the minor variables vary within certain ranges and rarely, if ever, end up leading global or even regional climate by the nose long enough to significantly alter major elements of general circulation. There is a strong tendency to regress to the mean, and the mean is driven by the major elements of the climate: continental drift, orbital variation, vulcanism, solar output, collision with significant extra-terrestrial objects, and, now, artificial enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Everything else is a feedback: something that reacts but is unlikely to change on its own -- biosphere (with rare exceptions), snow/ice albedo, ocean carbon cycle, clouds, water vapor, natural greenhouse effect, etc. Feedbacks vary and are integrated in different ways, but they regress to the mean of net forcing, with minor temporal variations driven primarily by ocean thermal capacity.
Thus it's a little inaccurate to describe the climate system as comprised of components that vary but are all of equal or near-equal power in shaping the future of the system. And, in addition to the major forcings, modeling does take into account many of the major and minor feedbacks. Of course, in the short-term (months to years), the interplay of major and minor feedbacks can produce significant but temporary anomalies, but the resonance of those anomalies across the long-term trend is ultimately insignificant. Arctic sea ice (ASI) is a great example. ASI is never, with all forcings stabilized, going to vary strongly and consistently to the extent that a glacial cycle is initiated. Only orbital or solar variation (or a one-timer) can do that (partially through the mechanism of snow/ice albedo feedback).
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franklefkin at 22:52 PM on 18 September 20132013 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Prediction
While the max extent in the spring is not as important as the min, it would still be interesting to see people's predictions for that. Is SkS going to do something like that? Is there any chance of Mr. Robinson updating his spiral graph?
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Jubble at 21:42 PM on 18 September 2013Latest myth from the Mail on Sunday on Arctic ice
I have an idea. Would it be a goer if this website or another provided the easy where-with-all for people (including myself) to make an official complaint each time a factually inaccurate, misleading and/or biased article appears in a national newspaper (whichever nation)? I've made a few complaints to editors and to the UK Press Complaints Commission (as a UK national) and would find it much easier if there was a set of text available in the appropriate language for me to use.
That way the number of complaints could be increased, the complaints would be more effective, they could be tracked for success ratios (e.g. better to make a lot of complaints about different specific issues relating to an article, or to make a single complaint about the whole article describing each error?).
If this sounds like a good idea, I'd be happy to help set it up, including contacting other organisations such as the Climate Reality Project, to help make it happen.
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michael sweet at 19:36 PM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Kishoreragi,
Since you are a novice why do you suppose professoinal scientists who dedicate their lives to making climate models would overlook such basic steps as your example? The models are adjusted so that different processes are modeled appropriately. Your analogy to a forrest is simply a way to avoid having to point to a specific problem with the climate models. Please provide an example of a problem with resolution in a climate model. If an example cannot be provided, with all the "auditing" that skeptics do, that suggests that your objection is simply an argument from ignorance. Just because you do not know how to model climate does not mean no-one knows how to make suitable models. Read some of the modeling threads here or at Real Climate and you will be more informed.
Moderator Response:[JH] Let's move this discussion to a more appropriate thread, i.e., How reliable are climate models? Thank you.
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John Mason at 18:09 PM on 18 September 2013Latest myth from the Mail on Sunday on Arctic ice
Superb - I liked the London temperatures analogy!
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Jim Hunt at 18:02 PM on 18 September 2013Latest myth from the Mail on Sunday on Arctic ice
Please forgive me for continuing to flog this particular dead horse, but an interview with Wieslaw Maslowski from December 2007 which reveals the sort of things he was actually saying at that time can be heard here:
http://greatwhitecon.info/2013/09/shock-news-why-isnt-the-arctic-ice-free/
Needless to say Prof. Maslowski's views were not accurately reported by David Rose in the Mail on Sunday. Hence we are attempting to persuade the Mail to recant this and the many other inaccuracies they have recently put into physical and virtual print with the aid of the UK's Press Complaints Commission. How far we'll get remains to be seen, but please feel free to inform any of your friends and acquaintances who might be interested in following the developing story. -
kishoreragi at 17:00 PM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
This is my recent comment at http://jrstalker.wordpress.com/2010/02/28/the-difficulty-in-quantifying-the-extent-of-global-warming-or-cooling in agreement with Dr. James Stalker. Here I want to report ...
Simple example to explain James Stalker’s thought of how erroneously climate models are built.
Lets assume a forest is analogous to a climate model. Like forest has many living things from insects to wild animals, climate models have many physical processes having local scale to global scale, and time scales of fraction of seconds to centuries.
Some insects have foot-steps of a fraction of micro-meter and other animals have of few meters. Moreover, few animals are brisk and other are slow. That means, different animals have different temporal and spatial steps. For example, if we are to model a forest with all kinds of living things in the forest, we need to take all these steps (temporal and spatial) of all living things into account. For example, first lets assume we have chosen spatial resolution of 10 meters and time step of 2 sec. Lets imagine how reliable these resolutions for all living things in a forest. It may be right for deer but, can an ant jump 10 m in 2 sec? In the same way, each climate process analogous to each living thing in a forest, has different temporal and spatial time step. Hence, if we are to model climate, we need to take all these steps ( temporal and spatial) of all physical processes of climate into account.
If we don’t take these suitable resolutions(temporal and spatial) for various variables, we are going to ask an ant to jump few meters in second or two, and a deer to rolling on the floor and many more clearly visible blunders with animals. At the present situation, climate community is asking the models to do mistake as this forest model example, and artistic science is saying 97 % community is in agreement with anthropogenic global warming !!!
I am a novice in climate research. So, lease let me know if any climate model takes care of such things in building model so that we can rely on them. But, from my perspective, the utility of such model are only to understand better about climate system intrecacies with a lot of uncertainty ...
Moderator Response:[JH] Let's move this discussion to a more appropriate thread, i.e., How reliable are climate models? Thank you.
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Deco79 at 16:16 PM on 18 September 2013Latest myth from the Mail on Sunday on Arctic ice
Staggering stupidity. I bet Mr Rose will be the first to write an article on the "infinite" recovery of ice once we do have an ice free summer.
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Doug Hutcheson at 13:42 PM on 18 September 2013Global Warming’s Missing Heat: Look Back In Anger (and considerable disbelief)…
And so far, we’ve only experienced 0.8 degrees C of warming. Who in his right mind would dare suggest that 1.5 degrees of warming is safe?
Which is why I puzzle over the much-touted 2°C 'target' set by politicians. That amount of warming averaged across the biosphere means some places will get even warmer, some will be more static and some will cool. I have yet to read a credible argument showing how 2°C average warming will be an improvement over current temperatures, let alone how ocean acidification, due to concomitant CO₂e level increases in the atmosphere, will be a boon to terrestrial life.
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Doug Hutcheson at 13:15 PM on 18 September 2013Arctic sea-ice 'growth', a manufactured IPCC 'crisis' and more: David Rose is at it again
As a simple soul, I am constantly discouraged by the egregious disinformation presented by opinion-leaders who obviouslt know better. David Rose is of that ilk, as is Tony (Climate Change Is Crap) Abbott. Being a Rhodes scholar, Abbott is smart enough to understand the evidence, leaving me to surmise he knows perfectly well we are facing a climate crisis and is deliberately following a contrarian path.
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Tom Curtis at 10:18 AM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
GFW @8, we should distinguish between fingerprinting the rise in CO2 levels as anthropogenic (which can be done by carbon isotopes), and fingerprinting the rise in temperatures as being caused by increased greenhouse warming which cannot). I will grant you that SkS discussions of the topic often fail to distinguish this point, but never-the-less we shoud do so.
Further, the fingerprinting above is not "model based" in any except the most trivial sense. Any scientific theory is a model. It specifies certain empirical relationships between some measurable quantities and some other measurable quantities. In some theories, the models are very simple, and can be solved algebraicly with linear equations. Others are more complex. As it happens, the subject matter of climate science is so complex that detailed predictions can only be made by large, complex computer programs. Use of such programs to determine what the theory predicts, however, is no different in principle than using Newton's second law of motion to determing the force applied to an accelerating body.
The denier objection to computer models is, fundamentally, an insistence that the predictions of climate science be kept to the level of handwaving, ie, the only level at which their "predictions" can appear to survive empirical tests.
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K.a.r.S.t.e.N at 09:44 AM on 18 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
Icarus, the constant aerosol forcing ramp up is extremely unlikely. In fact, this is reflected in the Meinshausen-Forcing which is more or less the basis for the upcoming AR5. So yes, with GISS aerosol forcing, the sensitivity might be too high. On the other hand, the GHG forcing is on the high(er) side in the GISS forcing data. Some counterbalancing here, but I am afraid we are going to run into the next issue right away: The so-called effective radiative forcing concept. Way beyond what I can explain right now, but maybe something we get to hear more often very soon (see Forster et al. 2013 for more).
You are absolutely right regarding Hansen et al. 2011. It is certainly an interesting effort, a very interesting one to be sure, but I am inclined to think that the models have more trouble to get the ocean response right, rather than they are wrong regarding the aerosol forcing. My argument is mainly based on the latest developments on the "OHC-front", i.e. the results presented in Balmaseda et al. 2013. If true, they contradict Hansens assumption of a lower planetary imbalance in the last decade, which in turn suggests that the slow response function (effective deep ocean mixing) is closer to the truth (corresponding with a more plausible aerosol forcing). Given the current ENSO state, I'm hardly pressed to think that his notion of "[too] excessive deep ocean uptake of heat" (with respect to GISS modelE-R) might be wrong after all. What I heard from (some) ocean modellers recently, seems to point in a similar direction ... corroborated by the simple fact that the model response to the forcing over land is surprisingly good, while all the discrepancies are restricted to the ENSO region as well as the circumpolar southern oceans. Hoprefully, Fig. 2 from van Oldenborgh et al. 2013 helps to illustrate what I just said:
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scaddenp at 09:39 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
"My interpretation of D'Anrea's studies is that he believes in present day CO2 induced global warming."
Meaning what? That therefore his data must be wrong?
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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Noting above the commenters who want to talk about the reliability of models, I think the article should mention that model-based fingerprinting is complementary to basic physical fingerprinting like carbon isotopes. Of course one has to accept that CO2 is a GHG to begin with for any of it to make sense. :/ -
spoonieduck at 07:46 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
I agree that the few barley grains found could have been imported. It is logical that the earliest Vikings would have experimented with cereals. These experiments might well have failed given the short growing season both then and now. Henrickssen, however, believes that these grains were locally harvested.
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spoonieduck at 07:38 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
My interpretation of D'Anrea's studies is that he believes in present day CO2 induced global warming.
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michael sweet at 05:58 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Spoonieduck
Since you did not link your study I searched D'Andrea et al and found this study published in May 2012. It studies lakes in Svalbard, which is about as close to Greenland as Ellesmere Island. Here D'Andrea says:
"We find that the summer warmth of the past 50 yr recorded in both the instrumental and alkenone records was unmatched in West Spitsbergen in the course of the past 1800 yr, including during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and that summers during the Little Ice Age (LIA) of the 18th and 19th centuries on Svalbard were not particularly cold, even though glaciers occupied their maximum Holocene extent."
The past 50 years are the warmest in the record. Many more crops are currently grown in Greenland than were attempted during the Viking settlements. The original settlers were hunters and not farmers. Greenland was never full of trees. A few barley grains in a midden could have been imported. They could grow barley today but it is cheaper to import from Denmark.
You only referenced one study. The others you describe without referencing or linking. How can I check what you say the studies claim? When I read DeAndrea et al 2011, I do not see the claim that the weather in 1100 was similar to today in Greenland. I see that it was warmer than earlier but no reference to current temperatures. Direct links allow me to read the study also.
Your assertion that since Greenland was named "Green" that it was warmer in 1000 AD than it is now is incorrect.
Moderator Response:[JH] I deleted your duplicate post of this comment.
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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
LandyJim - I would suggest reading through the Models are unreliable thread, followed by How do Climate Models work, and if you wish to commenting there.
Long story short - climate models are based on physics, fed forcings, and progress from there. Neither global nor regional observations can be generated from those physics unless anthropogenic forcings are part of the input.
I'll note that claiming that major factors '...may have been overlooked or simply ignored as an "inconvenient truth"', without evidence, is rather contrary to the"No accusations of deception" portion of the site Comments Policy.
Moderator Response:[JH] Let's move this discussion to a more appropriate thread, i.e., How reliable are climate models? Thank you.
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Roger D at 05:30 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Does the D’Andrea et al. 2011 research say anything about what the authors believe their findings indicate about the general temperature of the arctic region during the medieval warm period? These are excerpts from the abstract for D’Andrea et al. 2012 published in GSA that indicate at the locations investigated were not as warm in the MWP as recent (not average for last 100 yrs.) temperature.
“The Svalbard Archipelago occupies an important location for studying patterns and causes of Arctic climate variability.”
“We find that the summer warmth of the past 50 yr. recorded in both the instrumental and alkenone records was unmatched in West Spitsbergen in the course of the past 1800 yr., including during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and that summers during the Little Ice Age (LIA) of the 18th and 19th centuries on Svalbard were not particularly cold, even though glaciers occupied their maximum Holocene extent.”
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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
LandyJim, can you point to a model of real-world phenomena in any area of science that is not subject to your criticisms. All models of real-world phenomena fail at accuracy. Some models are useful; some are not. You can toss all the climate models out the window and still have excellent confidence that the climate system will store more energy with an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In fact, you can have high confidence that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will result in about +1C equilibrium increase at the surface, without adding in any feedbacks. No GCMs necessary.
I don't know what you mean by "human intervention." Do you mean the different likely emissions scenarios? Models definitely incorporate those.
What SkS study?
What do you mean by the "chemistry of humanity" and the "chemistry of nature"? What do you think of when you think of each of those?
Moderator Response:[JH] Let's move this discussion to a more appropriate thread, i.e., How reliable are climate models? Thank you.
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kmalpede at 04:45 AM on 18 September 2013The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report
American climate denier Prof.Richard Lindzen occupies the Alfred P. Sloan chair at MIT. Sloan Foundation funds plays about science, but refused to fund "Extreme Whether" because it is a play that unmasks the nefarious tactics of climate deniers. We need a culture of climate change...and one is growing, novels, photographs, plays, despite the difficulties with funding, the artists, like the scientists, will not be stopped.
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spoonieduck at 04:26 AM on 18 September 2013Medieval Warm Period was warmer
D'Andrea et al, using the 'alkenone thermometer' as applied to lake core sediments reported in Geophysical Research, vol. 13, 2011: "We generated a 5,000 year long, decadally resolved record of summer water temperature from the annually-laminated sediments of Lower Murray Lake on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian high Arctic.........Most notably, the alkenone record reveals warm lake water temperatures beginning approximately 800 A.D. and persisting until approximately 1200 A.D., with temperatures up to 2-3 deg C warmer than the mean temperature for the last 100 years. This distinct warm period of Ellesmere Island interrupted a Neoglacial cooling trend that began approximately 2,000 years earlier."
Using similar alkenone studies, D'Andrea and colleagues studied cores from the bottoms of Lake Braya So and E, close to the original Norse Greenland settlements. In 2011 they reported that, during the time of earliest Vikng coloniation, the weather was relatively mild, similar to today. Around 1100 A.D. the temperatures dropped 4 deg C in 80 years..... D'Andrea et al. reported these findings to the National Academy of Sciences.
Peter Steen Henrickssen, an archaeobotonist doing research--digging into middens left by the Greenland Norse--for the National Museum of Copenhagen claims to have found a few grains of charred barley in the lowest level of one of the middens. Because of the context and the presence of extraneous chaff, he believes that this was barley cultivated in the early days of the Greenland colonies. Today, no cereal grains can be grown in Greenland.
As you correctly noted, a few potatos are grown in southern Greenland today. Potatos weren't grown in Norse Greenland because potatos were only grown in the Andean mountains at the time. They weren't 'discovered' and brought to Europe until after 1528.
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LandyJim at 03:25 AM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Not wishing to get into a debate of the merits of climate change as a whole, but i do see a flaw in the modelling used. Firstly, to do a model without human intervention requires a set of assumptions to be made that may or may not be accurate, secondly the Human only model requires a lot of assumptions to be made that may or may be accurate, and then they use the output to produce a model into which they add natural variations..
That is flawed science in my humble opinion, regardless of the truth about human impacts on the climate. People can pat themselves on the back all they like, but I am skeptical about the accuracy of such models.
We can argue about the impact of human activity on warming the climate all we like, but it is a proven fact that some human activity actually causes a cooling of the climate, was this taken into account in the models in the SKS study? I'll take a bet that it may have been overlooked or simply ignored as an "inconvenient truth" and the problem with that is that all your models are then inaccurate.
Lastly, has anyone completed a study to see how the chemistry of humanity and the chemistry of nature interact and impact the cliamte, the assumptions made about natural variations may be wrong because the chemistry if the atmosphere may be vastly different (good or bad) without humans dumping millions of tonnes of gases into the atmosphere each year.
Moderator Response:[JH] Let's move this discussion to a more appropriate thread, i.e., How reliable are climate models?
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CBDunkerson at 03:16 AM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
KR, I agree... except that their 'fans' are clearly too delusional to understand how stupid that ACM graph is.
Heck, the graph even winds up showing a small warming trend. Thus, the only 'knock' against SkS in the entire piece is in denouncing our "OMG we're all going to DIE" alarmism... and that's just a rather pathetic lie given the lack of any page like that on this site.
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Icarus at 03:03 AM on 18 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
Thanks K.a.r.S.t.e.N. I haven't gone into it in as much depth as you have, and yes I used the GISS forcing data. I think you're saying that the GISS aerosol forcing is too large, which would make the net forcing unrealistically small, and the sensitivity therefore too high... is that correct? I think James Hansen did an analysis relating to this in a recent paper - trying different response times and different aerosol forcings. Possibly this was the paper which brought on his comments about a 'Faustian bargain'. I will have to dig it out and re-read it...
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What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
hank_ - Indeed, that's hilarious. They posted something attempting to diss the SkS Escalator emphasizing year-to-year variations (strawman, nobody seriously discusses trends from yearly varations) and portray a 12 year time-span for their "rational observers" (which is a prime example of the 'too short for significance' timespans shown in the SkS Escalator, uncertainties of about ±0.168 °C/decade 2σ).
Quite frankly an "own goal" for ACM, it makes them look quite the fools.
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hank_ at 01:50 AM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Just a heads-up for all SkS readers. The Skeptical Science 'escalator' gets a mention on this Aussi blog. Well worth a look for a few laughs;
australianclimatemadness.com/2013/09/16/the-skeptical-science-escalator-of-alarmism/
Click the graph.
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K.a.r.S.t.e.N at 00:48 AM on 18 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
@Icarus:
Which forcings did you use? In case it is based on GISS, please see my comments #5 and #10 in which I point to some rather intractable inconsistencies with these data.
Kosaka and Xie don't touch upon the sensitivity issue. However, J-N Gammon did, coming up with a rather low TCR estimate (based on the CM2.1 model used in the study) after an initially more plausible range. While his revision was certainly justified, the model itself seems to have issues with the aerosol forcing as Paul S pointed out in the comment section. I agree with him, which should bring the TCR estimate back to J-N-G's original posting. -
dvaytw at 00:23 AM on 18 September 2013What's causing global warming? Look for the fingerprints
Arguing about climate change is sort of a hobby of mine, and the SkS "fingerprints" list has been a primary weapon in my arsenal since I discovered it. I've done a lot of such arguments, and to this day I've yet to see a "skeptic" who can respond to it.
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Icarus at 23:38 PM on 17 September 2013The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
Does the Yu Kosaka and Shang-Ping Xie study cite a value for climate sensitivity based on their data? The value which drops out of my 2-box model is 0.77°C/W/m², or around 2.8°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO₂.
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Jim Hunt at 22:01 PM on 17 September 2013The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report
Dana @5 - Thanks for your good wishes. I rather suspect that the PCC has many fewer teeth than a great white shark, so maybe a bit of luck will come in handy? Time will tell! I'll certainly let you know if we start making any significant progress.
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libertarianromanticideal at 20:28 PM on 17 September 2013The Economist Screws Up on the Draft IPCC AR5 Report and Climate Sensitivity
From "Commie" Hedegaard, Europe's climate action commissioner, said:
"Let's say that science, some decades from now, said 'we were wrong, it was not about climate', would it not in any case have been good to do many of things you have to do in order to combat climate change?."
EU policy on climate change is right even if science was wrong, says commissioner
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Klapper at 15:35 PM on 17 September 2013The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report
@Albatross #3:
I can't speak for other skeptics, but I'm certainly not in a panic over AR5.
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YubeDude at 13:04 PM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
Wow, look what happens when you have a life away from online threads...
A few days back I was reading a rather disingenuous post by josieki and asked her two questions about her observation that science, from her personal experience, is often corrupt. My questions were directed at her personal experience and inquired if working in the corporate world of science for profit that certain shareholder issues may have had more to do with creating the air of corruption she precived then any other explanation…it was her world I wondered if she had considered that possibility. After her opening salvo aimed at the integrity of science she attempted to anchor her point to "Climategate"
It was her mention of Climategate that caused me to log in and reply I responded and thought I had accurately characterized the nature of this non-conspiracy conspiracy. She started this with an attempt to kick a dead horse that has long ago been shown to be a rotting corpse of cherry pick snippets and out of context personal correspondence that in no way has been shown to establish evidence of scientific collusion in the service of an agenda that is counter to the findings. Now she gets to have my own post pulled and retreat into the ether and anyone who was engaged by her is to suffer a moderated silence?
The beauty is that there is still a world outside of thread discussions and moderation...time to go enjoy the day.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:46 PM on 17 September 2013The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report
The worst among the contrarians are the ones who "actually know better but refuse to fully and properly inform on this issue or try to misinform", the ones who are informed and intelligent but deliberately develop and disseminate deceptive claims. Those claims then get repeated by the second worst type of people, the ones who deliberately want to fight against the best understanding of all the available information because such increased public awareness does not suit their interests. And those misleading messages get ready acceptance by the third worst type of people, the ones who want more personal wealth, pleasure, comfort and convenience for themselves without caring about how sustainable their actions are.
Burning non-renewable resources has to end because it is simply not sustainable, even without considering any future consequences it creates.
And the denial/delay dance continues because most of the wealth and power is in the hands of those who did not care about how they got that wealth and power. They will fight to maximize their short-term personal gathering of wealth, power, pleasure, comfort and convenience any way they can get away with.
The future has already lost a lot. It stands to lose a lot more from the careless actions of those who only want more for themselves.
The truth will eventually win out, but the more fortunate changing their way of life to be sustainable forever should have started 20 years ago (or even earlier). All the deliberate contrarians who know better are the most despicable intelligent people on the planet. But despicable people can be popular. Therein lays the flaw of promoting popularity as a measure of legitimacy.
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Riduna at 12:05 PM on 17 September 2013Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph
The author correctly points out that, compared to the 2012 record lows of Arctic ice area and volume, a relative recovery in both was to be expected in 2013 and this has occurred – but with what effect on ice cover in future years?
Increased area of sea ice cover in 2013, means that albedo has also recovered so might we expect a further increase in area covered by sea ice in 2014?
Or will on-going Arctic amplification of average global surface warming combined with loss of 2013 ice volume outweigh the effects of increased albedo, resulting in decline of sea ice mass and area in 2014?
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:16 AM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
This is indeed a dilemma. Restoring the responses but not the posts would be unfair and even somewhat misleading. Now that decision has been taken to remove all the posts and associated responses, I think mods should stick with it and leave it at at that. Restoring per request only should be grounds for selectively restoring responses, but that would put undue burden on the mods, and the authors would probably be unsatsified because of a loss of context. No real good option, I think it should be left alone now.
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Tom Curtis at 10:52 AM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
DSL, a reasonable compromise would be to restore all the posts, but to snip the contents of josieki's posts as per her request with an explanation that her request is the reason for the snip. Moderators call, of course.
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Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
I'm torn. I agree with Tom re the posts replying to Josiecki. On the other hand, I'd argue that error is the actual reason Josiecki wants all the posts removed. After all, if she believes in the truth of those posts, she'd defend their publication. I'm also sad about losing such an excellent, sustained example of empty rhetoric.
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Tom Curtis at 10:34 AM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
I seriously object to the actions of the moderator in complying with josiecki's requist.
She does not have the right to request the deletion of anybody's posts other than her own. Nor does she have the right to remove the context of other people's replies to her by removing her posts. Therefore the complete removal of all her posts is an unreasonable request that should not have been complied with IMO.
This situation is very different from that in which a poster immediately after posting discovers an error in their post and requests removal before others have responded. Rather, we have had several days worth of debate removed because josiecki found it personally embarassing just how little she could defend her opinions (none of which, I believe, she ever offered substantive support of).
I request that the moderators actions in removing those post be reconsidered by the entire moderation team and that the posts be reinstated.
Moderator Response:[DB] The matter has been brought up for discussion.
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johnrabbit at 10:26 AM on 17 September 2013Global Warming’s Missing Heat: Look Back In Anger (and considerable disbelief)…
Philippe, I disagree. I like to look at WUWT to see what is the latest thing they are now trying to deny. I find reading their posts and finding the errors to be a good way to pass my time.
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To frack or not to frack?
Note that the UT/EDF study was just published in PNAS (a useful press release is here). It shows that extensive mitigation of emissions as advocated does work as expected, pushing total "leaked" emissions quite low (likely <1%). Unfortunately, mostly sites where active mitigation measures are in place were investigated.
While we study the results and wait for more studies to be published, stay tuned for an update to this post some time in the fall.
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josiecki at 07:10 AM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
Waiting for a response....
Moderator Response:[JH] You hae requested that all of your comments be deleted. Your request will be honored.
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Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph
Part of the explanation is Agung. See figure 2 of Domingues et al. 2008 and especially Balmaseda et al. 2013.
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John Hartz at 07:04 AM on 17 September 2013Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
All:
Per his/her request, the most recent post of josiecki has been deleted. DSL's response to it has also been deleted.
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tmbtx at 06:45 AM on 17 September 2013Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph
I've had a question for a while about the heat content chart. What is the "dip" in the ocean heat content between 1960 and 1970? Is that a plot artifact, or have to do with the baseline? It's just always a bit weird how it starts at 0, then drops, then jumps back up. I reference people to that chart fairly often but some of them point to that drop and try to cliam there's something wrong.
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MThompson at 05:07 AM on 17 September 2013CO2 effect is saturated
davidwell, regarding comment 277"
If a ring-down optical path lengh was say 900 meters, then the pulse duration would be 3 microseconds. If the lifetime of the v2 CO2* state is much longer than that would some probe beam intensity survive even at 100% CO2? I ask this because I'm guessing that the excited state (v2 CO2*) does not absorb the probe beam. Anyway, I'm just a guy that likes science, and your question is interesting to me.
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dana1981 at 04:29 AM on 17 September 2013The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report
Jim @2 - good luck. Rose is one of the worst "journalist" serial climate misinformers on the planet. Climate scientists in particular (except Curry of course - go figure) are clearly getting really sick of him distorting their work.
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davidnewell at 03:31 AM on 17 September 2013CO2 effect is saturated
Excuse me, I am but a poor and ignorant engineer. Also, as MThompson , above, I have not read all the pages.
so, with that, I venture the following question:
with ring down IR spectrophotometers with path lenghts of hundreds of meters, would not the premise that "saturation" in the heating of the atmosphere from increasing CO2 occurs..
also mean that the spectrophotometers might become useless at a % CO2 level which intercepts all their source laser IR energy?
Which doesn't happen, up to 100% CO2.
Probably I'm missing something here, your elucidation is solicited.
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