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AndyS at 08:06 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
DSL I like the idea that there is some kind of ethics committee awaiting my announcements and will make me personally responsible for the $45 trillion required for climate change mitigation.
I have heard some pretty nutty stuff in my time...
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chriskoz at 08:05 AM on 1 March 2013How big is the “carbon fertilization effect”?
gws,
Nice and comprehensive response, especially useful link to the global carbon project paper, thank you very much. Indeed I cannot wait for the analysis of the new Le Quéré paper...
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AndyS at 07:56 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
I do get a bit tired of this endless dissection of what people said or what people believe.
The fact is, global surface temps have increased around 0.8 degrees since pre-industrial times. Most of that warming occurred in two distinct periods in the 20th C. Surface temps haven't moved much this century, which doesn't mean they won't move again.
The only discussion worth having, in my view, is what is the climate system's sensitivity to CO2
Moderator Response: [DB] Climate sensitivity is off-topic on this thread. -
Nigel Harris at 07:54 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Andy S @10:
Norway produces nearly twice as much oil and well over twice as much gas as the UK. The Norwegians benefit from a huge maritime territory with a hydrocarbons-rich continental shelf that stretches all the way into the Barentz sea.
But I agree the basic point that per capita national CO2 emissions is a poor yardstick to measure Norwegians' behaviour by. Norway burns very little of the oil and gas that it produces. If you cut out the offshore oil and gas industry, Norway would look like a shining example of how to run a wealthy low-carbon economy.
It is hard for Norway to provide fossil fuels for the rest of Europe without pushing up their CO2 emissions. But even in the offshore sector, Norway is exemplary in its energy efficiency and environmental standards. They have one of the world's largest CO2 capture and sequestration projects at the Sleipner gas field complex, for goodness sake.
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DSL at 07:28 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Addendum: unless, of course, you can provide reasoning/evidence for not taking climate science seriously. I think we all eagerly await that discussion, unless you're holding back on us (which would render you unethical and make you responsible for every dollar spent on mitigation/adaptation).
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DSL at 07:26 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS: "I have no idea what Hansen "believes". I read his paper and he specifically uses the phrase "global warming standstill"."
You're not serious. Hansen tells you what he believes in that paper. Did you ignore everything before and after the phrase "global warming standstill"? That would be an incredibly uncritical thing to do. I imagine that if the general public read the paper, as unlikely as that might be, many within that group would actually understand what Hansen believes when he says "standstill."
It is your problem. If the public is misinformed, you, via the democratic mechanism, suffer from the resulting inefficiencies in responding to reality. You played your cards when you made a distinction between your problems and the problems of climate science. That means you don't take climate science seriously, and that supports my claim that you're an uncritical troll and a cause of the problem the general public has with misinformation.
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Composer99 at 07:20 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS: If others misuse Hansen's statements, that is their fault, not Hansen's.
Please allocate responsibility where it properly belongs.
(And of course, please see KR's post which quotes Hansen showing that, despite use of the term 'standstill' he indicates surface temps are still rising.)
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AndyS at 06:59 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
North Sea oil and gas is approx 50/50 split across UK and Norway, (I am guessing, but it is probably close).
Noway has 4 million or so people, the UK has 65, so the "per capita" is a somewhat misleading statistic based on Norway's low population and large oil fields
If Scotland bacame independent from the UK, a similar situation might arise there, although they won't have any wealth
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AndyS at 06:54 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
@DSL, I have no idea what Hansen "believes". I read his paper and he specifically uses the phrase "global warming standstill"
So, for the the general public in general, they might interpret this as "global warming has stoped".
It is not my problem, it is a problem for the PR side of climate science. If the godfather of global waming, James Hansen, uses a fairly unqualified statement like this, then it is obviously going to be picked up and used as ammunition.
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Andy Skuce at 06:51 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Hyperactive Hydrologist @3
You are right that oil and gas production and industry account for large chunks of Norway's emissions, but I don't think it is misleading to include them in the total of the country's per capita emissions, any more than it would be misleading, say, to include Canada's emissions associated with the oil sands or China's emissions that arise from manufacturing.
Thanks for that link.
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KR at 06:45 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS - Reading Hansen in context (which I would strongly recommend), he states:
...the standstill has led to a widespread assertion that "global warming has stopped"
[...]
Indeed, the current stand-still of the 5-year running mean global temperature may be largely a consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominately El Nino conditions, while the second half had predominately La Nina conditions (...). Comparing the global temperature at the time of the most recent three La Ninas (1999-2000, 2008, and 2011-2012), it is apparent that global temperature has continued to rise between recent years of comparable tropical temperature, indeed, at a rate of warming similar to that of the previous three decades.
(Emphasis added)
In other words, Hansen is well aware of the erroneous conclusions 'skeptics' have drawn from recent temperatures, and is correcting them. Again, as with Pachauri, the problem lies in 'skeptical' errors of interpretation and (as seen in the opening post) the misrepresentation of scientists views in certain media outlets.
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villabolo at 06:45 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Cornelius @ #2:
Perhaps I should have reworded my comment. I was referring to Norway's manufacturing sustainable energy products like solar panels and wind turbines for export to other nations. It would be an investment in the future for their nation.
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AndyS at 06:41 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
I think the book was written when Norway - and Europe in general - had some poor ski seasons. This one and the last few years have been pretty good snow years
The central pyrenees as several ski areas closed at the moment becuase they are buried under snow
Obviously, if global warming causes less snow then the ski industry will suffer. Conversely, if global warming causes more snow, they will prosper. SInce I have been told that the latter is true, it is good news for me, as a skier.
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DSL at 06:37 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS, based on the Hansen paper under discussion, do you believe that Hansen believes that "global warming has stopped"? Do you believe that he finds the "standstill" in global surface temp in any way meaningful where the theory of anthropogenic global warming is concerned?
To me, trolls speak a language that is full of unjustified doubt--a language that is meant to provoke a response rather than advance undestanding. From your posts, I read that you want to establish that scientists have used the terms "standstill" or "hiatus" or "pause" with regards to the surface temp trend. You want to establish this not for the sake of discussing what it means for climate science (because you quite clearly said that you didn't want to discuss the details), but for some other reason. What that reason might be must necessarily come from a limited range of possibilities, and one of those possibilities is that you're trolling for bits of text to use as rhetorical weapons designed to confuse the general public. If you weren't a troll, you'd be focused on the science and whether or not the apparent "standstill" is actually meaningful.
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Chris G at 06:31 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Re: "like giving up non-essential air travel"
I think air travel is unfairly singled out. If I remember the math right, a modern jumbo jet uses about as much fuel per person*mile as an average car loaded with 4 people. So, while non-essential travel may be a talking point, I don't see that non-essential air travel is particularly different from non-essential travel by car.
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gws at 06:22 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
HH @4
It is certainly a bit of a conundrum, but if you want to known more, check out the The supply chain of CO2 emissions
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AndyS at 06:19 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Norway's electricity is almost entirely hydro
From Wiki
Of the total production in 2007 of 137 TWh, 135 TWh was from hydroelectric plants, 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Norway
Oslo has an extensive public transport network. The Trikken, or "Trikk" as it is known ic tram system, with 6 lines and 99 stops
The main oil company is Statoil, which has a majority state ownership.
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Hyperactive Hydrologist at 06:02 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Just want to point out that Norway produces pretty much 100% of their electricity from renewable sources namely Hydro. Most of their emmisions come from industry, oil and gas production and transport Link. I think this article is a little misleading in that respect.
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AndyS at 05:51 AM on 1 March 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
MA Rodger - thanks for the link. You are correct, there is no use of the word pause or hiatus
The exact phrase was
"
Global Warming Standstill.The 5 year running mean of global temperature has been flat forthe past decade (on Page 5 under the figure).My accent isn't troll, although I have lived in Norway for a short time. -
Cornelius Breadbasket at 05:41 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
villabolo @ 1.
They'd be better off going for wind power in the North Sea as Scotland are. The sun is under the horizon for a big chunk of the year in Norway.
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villabolo at 04:44 AM on 1 March 2013Living in Denial in Norway
Norwegians have one of the highest per capita incomes and best education in the world. They could do plenty if they invested a good portion of it in the manufacturing of solar power.
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Composer99 at 04:21 AM on 1 March 2013George Will - Still Recycling Classic Climate Change Myths for The Washington Post
Even if, for the sake of argument, one were to concede that rapid global cooling was a mainstream view among climatologists and related scientists in the 1970s, as far as I can see it does nothing to undermine the present conclusions regarding the behaviour of the Earth climate, as these conclusions are built on a large, continually-expanding body of independent, convergent lines of evidence - more and better evidence than there was in the 1970s supporting any conclusion of global cooling.
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boba10960 at 03:30 AM on 1 March 2013George Will - Still Recycling Classic Climate Change Myths for The Washington Post
Dana @6, in the 1970's George Kukla and a few other climate scientists actually did believe that an ice age was pending on time scales relevant to humans. That concern was expressed in his letter to President Nixon in 1972. However, Kukla's was not the mainstream view of climate scientists in the 70's, which is better represented by Wally Broecker's paper:
Broecker, W.S., 1975. Climatic Change - Are We on Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming. Science, 189(4201): 460-463.
Broecker and Kukla are very close personal friends, but on more than one occasion I have seen Broecker show a slide of Kukla's letter to Nixon to tease him for being out of touch with the mainstream view in the 70's. As noted by Dana and by many other comments here, it is incorrect to present a real but minority view from the 1970's as the consensus belief at the time among climate scientists.
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Bob Lacatena at 00:29 AM on 1 March 2013The Y-Axis of Evil
Philip,
I'm afraid that at this point in time, with all that has transpired and everything the man has said and done, no one owes any sort of apology to Monckton.
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Philip Shehan at 22:21 PM on 28 February 2013The Y-Axis of Evil
Regarding my comment number 49. I must correct and apologise to Lord Monckton for attributing to him a comment he did not make. This was due to a failure of another comnentator tot indicate correct punctuation with regard to his comment which I took to be Monckton's:
“Today’s high CO2 levels – the 97% natural and the 3% human-released”
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MA Rodger at 21:35 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS
I think if you look you will find this is the Hansen report you were a little hazy on. Mind, thereis no actual use of the word "pause" or the word "hiatus."
But I forget that you are "not getting involved in a discussion of whether there is actually a pause or not." Ah ha. Now there is a phrase that has much more resonance when spoken with a heavy Troll accent. -
gws at 19:42 PM on 28 February 2013How big is the “carbon fertilization effect”?
chriskoz, some more explanation:
- the actual average increase was 57%, given in the post; that is much less than your "eyeball" estimate, but also varying a lot between biomes. "Eyeball" estimates are often wrong when the underlying data is not normally distributed. I thus dislike, and did not include in the post, that the authors gave an average 0.293 kg m-2 y-1 (range 0-2.12 kg m-2 y-1!) in the paper. That average may be realized in one biome, and is not representative in an ecological sense. In any case, it is applicable mathematically to an area of 123 M km2 (not all land area is vegetated). High increases occurred in the model where NPP was high in the first place, particularly the tropics.
- I guess one could define a "NPP sensitivity" similarly to climate sensitivity in order to have a common reference point (such as for comparing model outputs). But, similar to climate sensitivity, it remains a function of actual [CO2] level, i.e. incremental warming changes for each subsequent doubling and incremental NPP increase change with each doubling. If you follow the link in the post, you will find that between 280 and 560 ppm, the slope of the curve is still relatively large, but for any additional increases it will drop rapidly, more rapidly than the parallel warming effect. Meaning, even in the hypothetical case of a biosphere reacting solely to [CO2] and uptake of most of anthropogenic CO2, this counter-effect to warming could not be maintained as [CO2] increases.
- the current estimate for the land sink, 2.6±0.8 Pg C y-1, is calculated as the residual from better known fluxes, i.e. anthropogenic emissions, fraction remaining in the atmosphere, uptake by the ocean, and net land use change fluxes. The latter is positive, meaning gross land uptake is actually larger than 2.6 Pg (follow the Global Carbon Project link). The new paper (still in review in Earth Syst. Sci. Data) by Le Quéré et al. that is linked from the presentation shows that a current set of Dynamic Global Vegetation models (DGVMs) does a decent job in calculating magnitude and interannual variability of the land carbon sink. The models include the fertilization effect as well as deforestation, afforestation, regrowth, and climate variability. Some include nitrogen dynamics. In general, these models are more sophisticated than the one discussed in the post (which focussed on varying climate model parameters into one biosphere model), but they were all run with the same climatic inputs. You would have to turn off all other relevant effects for increasing NPP (regrowth, afforestation, nitrogen fertilization) in order to tease out the CO2 fertilization effect itself. Not yet done. Hence my announcement in the post ... wait for it to come soon.
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Tristan at 19:39 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
"that the observations do not effectively rule out the possibility that there has been no warming."
To emphasise the myopia in the sentiment we so often see:
"that those observations -when considered outside of the context of all the other observations and physical knowledge we have- do not effectively rule out the possibility that there has been no warming."
Even trying to deduce whether the world is warming solely from the SAT record is wrong. Not that it seems to stop people.
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Dikran Marsupial at 19:16 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
andyS wrote 'i.e there is a difference between the statement "global warming has stopped" and "there has been no significant change in surface temperature anomaly".'
Yes, there is a difference, which is that "skeptics" are misusing the concept of statistical significance. The lack of a statistically significant warming trend does not mean that there has been no warming, just that the observations do not effectively rule out the possibility that there has been no warming.Alternatively, we could ask "has there been a statistically significant change in the rate of warming?", and the answer there would be "no". However the skeptics never seem to want to discuss that point for some reason.
The funny thing is that the way that hypothesis testing should be used is to assume the null hypothesis (the thing you do not want to be true) holds and only proceed with your alternative hypothesis if you are able to show that the observations are inconsistent with the null hypothesis. If you are a "skeptic" and arguing that there has been a plateau, then your null hypothesis should be that there has been no change in the underlying rate of warming. If you are a "warmist" and aguing that there has been warming (purely on the basis of these observations) then your null hypothesis is that the rate of warming is zero and the onus is on you to reject the null hypothesis.
The basic idea is one of self-skepticism, you only proceed with your hypothesis if you can show that the opposite of what you are arguing for is inconsistent with the observations.
The "skeptics" in this case are ironically being utterly unskeptical, by effectively using a null hypothesis which is that their argument is correct, which totally goes against the whole idea of statistical hypothesis testing (unless you also perform a power analysis, which they never do).
The "warmists" on the other hand, are not basing their argument solely on land temperature observations (mega cherry pick on your part there! ;o); they also have physics, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content as well.
But if you are just looking at land surface temperatures, then over a period as short as 15 years, the observations don't rule out the existence of a plateau, nor do they rule out warming having continued at the same rate since 1970 or so.
Hope this helps.
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John Brookes at 17:28 PM on 28 February 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
It is interesting that "climate skeptics" are so angry at Lewandowsky for pointing out the obvious. They are going to be apoplectic now that their anger at how they were originally portrayed is being studied as well.
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dana1981 at 15:40 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS @51 - Unfortunately The Australian still hasn't made the transcript or recording available, so your question is impossible to answer. However, the most likely answer is #1 (that The Australian misrepresented what Pachauri said), given what the IPCC communications office told me. That being said, it's possible that he mis-spoke, and hence he isn't making any accusations regarding misrepresentations. #1 is most likely, but we can't be sure (frankly due to Lloyd's shoddy journalism).
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Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS
- Was Pachauri misrepresented by The Australian? - Apparently so. He certainly doesn't agree with their presentation, and the Australian lacks direct quoting in the critical sections. Shame on The Australian.
- Was he badly briefed? - Don't know, don't care. Misrepresenting an interview is the fault of the journalist.
- Does he actually hold the views as presented, and if so why? - Did you not read the opening post, where it states: "it (the reported interview) does not accurately represent Pachauri's thoughts on the subject"?
- Is he playing a political game to make the sceptic arguments sound irrelevant? - No, and that would be silly. The only "gaming" I see (IMO) is folks who are misinterpreting the story.
You seem determined to state that Pachauri said something silly, or deceptive, and to claim that warming has halted. I don't believe any of that is justified by the facts...
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DSL at 14:06 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS, you asked, "Leaving aside the ocean warming issue, does SkS accept that there has been no warming of land temps for the last 15 years or so?"
Why ask it if you don't want the details or don't want to get "involved in a discussion"? That discussion is essential to understanding why Pauchari would not have made the claim that the claimers claimed he claimed.
Pauchari, simply by having read AR4 and having the critical thinking capacity necessary to put 2 and 2 together, knows that 1) surface temp is not very representative of the overall system energy accumulation (TOA imbalance), 2) less-than-climate-scale trend periods are interesting but not very meaningful with regards to the basic theory of AGW, and 3) the period in question is especially susceptible to misinterpretation. That's all no-brainer stuff. For Pauchari to have simply ignored all that and told the notorious Australian that global warming had paused stretches the bounds of believability. It's possible he was jet lagged, sick, and on meds, and the claim actually did come out of his mouth, but I kind of doubt it. If he did say it in full control of his mental faculty, he's a blithering idiot. It wouldn't be the first time that a scientist opened her/his mouth and said something stupid. That's why getting one's opinions on science from mainstream media is a Bad Idea (and I recognize that it's the only option most people have, or believe they have). The science renders The Australian's claim and anything Pauchari might have said meaningless apart from the playing of rhetorical games with the general public.
What's funny about all of this is that the alleged "hiatus" says exactly the opposite of what "skeptics" think it says. What it actually says is that in 1997/8 global temp spiked to its highest value in probably several thousand years (the change from 1996 to the 1997/8 peak is about .25C in Had4), and then over the next decade or so it didn't just stay there but rose slightly (also encompassing a value that surpassed 1997/8). It's like a baseball player hitting, in consecutive years, 32, 33, 37, 35, 40, 45, 39, 42, 47, and 48 home runs, and then the next ten years hitting 70, 73, 45, 60, 65, 62, 60, 75, 62, and 63. Yah, sure, the trend over those ten years appears to be falling or flat. Has the player somehow lost his game (or steroids dealer)? In the middle of the hiatus is the period from 1999 to 2007, which gives a trend of .146C per decade. The 2000s were the hottest decade in the instrumental period, despite being La Nina-ish and despite the instrumental record low for TSI in the 11-year cycle. Note that global ice mass loss accelerated during the surface temp "hiatus" period, a fact that Pauchari would be very much aware of.
And, yes, at your request I'm ignoring the 80,000 ton gorilla in the room (OHC).
One final thought on significance. The Rose trend is roughly .038C per decade. It is, by the common definition of statistical significance, insignificant. It's also about 9x the rate of PETM event warming. That's significant.
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AndyS at 14:05 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
I think this thread might be hitting its recursion limit.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:39 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
I'm sure he's been made aware of the whole issue. He's a very busy guy with a very important position. I'd venture to guess this is too small an issue for him to even bother responding. The facts about global climate change do not hinge on the misrepresentations of a single reporter.
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AndyS at 13:36 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
As I posted a while back on this thread, you could just ask him.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:26 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
If I'm not mistaken, Pachauri wasn't even actually quoted. The reporter merely stated that Pachauri made the statement without providing an actual quote, nor providing a reference to where or when he was supposed to have made such a statement.
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chriskoz at 13:22 PM on 28 February 2013How big is the “carbon fertilization effect”?
Thanks gws.
To recap my understanding, together with some numbers. Looking at this Carbon Cycle picture and figures 1 (NPP at preindustrial CO2 280ppm) and 2 (dNPP per doubled CO2 to 560ppm, let's call it "NPP sensitivity" or dNPP) above, I deduce:
- NPP 60Pg (or 60Gt) per 150Mkm2 (land surface area) means 0.4kg/m2 and that is the average value on Figure 1
- It's hard to eyeball the average NPP sensitivity from Figure 2 but it looks as "green" as Figure 1, then in the order of 0.2-0.4kg/m2, therefore average NPP sensitivity could result in a staggering doubling of 57pG NPP flux shown on carbon cycle and drawing that +204Pg from the atmosphere pretty quickly. That conclusion sounds incredible, prodived that fertilisation effect has hard limits and levels out in most autophytic species. I would not expect that dNPP could have such potential (in the ideal conditions of abundance of water & other nutrients). Perhaps I read Figure 2 incorrectly or my calculations are wrong.
- How much of that red 2.4Pg "Land sink" flux shown on Carbon Cycle picture is due to dNPP, remians highly uncertain.
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AndyS at 13:18 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Yes I am familiar with The Escalator. I am not getting involved in a discussion of whether there is actually a pause or not. See #51
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:14 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS... If you look at the animated GIF near the top of the right-hand column of this page you'll see "The Esculator."
The surface temperature record is a noisy data set. We expect to see periods that are level in a rising trend. What you might take note of is, the observed trend of the past 15, 16, 17, whatever number of years is not negative. You don't see temps falling anything close to what the have risen in recent decades.
The other thing you should note is that the radiative forcing from increased GHG's continued to rise. No one can expect that we can continue to increase radiative forcing and anything but warming, in spite of its stocatic behavior of the surface temperature record, to continue.
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70rn at 13:14 PM on 28 February 2013Conspiracy Theorists Respond to Evidence They're Conspiracy Theorists With More Conspiracy Theories
Wait, suggesting this at you guys? Lol, no. I don't think taking down websites really has that much organizational bent to it. It has to do with people having an overly personalised view of the world, and seeing suppression of opinion counter to theirs as some form of defensive action. It's pretty obvious to me that such behaviour been heavilly directed towards pro-CC science urls, and a typical component of the mindset set appears to be focusing on specific individuals, and their supposed motives. I just find it really obnoxious regardless of the target.
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AndyS at 12:50 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Yes I did mean surface temps, thanks for the clarification. I am not really querying the technical details. I do accept the relatively short time scale and large error bars. What I am querying is the message presented to the public. Not just Pachauri, but also James Hansen in the "state of temps" report he did recently where there was some reference to pause or hiatus (can't remember the exact details).See #51 for my actual questions
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:43 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS (not Andy S) said... "...does SkS accept that there has been no warming of land temps for the last 15 years or so?"
"Land temps?" I think you're actually looking to ask about surface temps because land only temps are certainly greater than surface temp alone.
What is continually missed in the "temps have plateaued" argument is, this is yet another discussion about statistical significance. Temps have risen, but the observed trend doesn't rise to the 95% confidence level. That means that there is a chance the trend may be an element of noise in the data.
So, if you think about it for just a short moment, there is also a likelihood that the observed trend is actually higher rather than lower than the observed trend. But (fake) skeptics tend to ignore this fact.
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AndyS at 12:38 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
#48 Phillippe Chantrelle. Unlike your ad hom comment directed at me, my last one was directly relevant to the post.
So if the SkS postion is that there is no "pause" in warming by any definition, then these questions arise.(1) Was Pachauri misrepresented by The Australian?
(2) Was he badly briefed?
(3) Does he actually hold the views as presented, and if so why?
(4) Is he playing a political game to make the sceptic arguments sound irrelevant?
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Tom Curtis at 12:13 PM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS @46, the IPCC AR4 prediction for increase in global mean surface temperature over the period from 2001 - 2030 is 0.2 C per decade. Checking Gisstemp, the only global surface temperature record (HadCRUT3 and 4 and NCDC are not global, and UAH is not a surface temperature record), I find the that 15 year trend is 0.058 +/- 0.248 C per decade. That indicates that the short duration of measurement means there is insufficient data from the temperature record from Jan 1998 forward to determine whether trend is 0.306 C per decade, or - 0.19 C per decade, or some point in between. The error bars do not just tell you that the trend cannot be distinguished from zero. They also tell you that it cannot be distinguished from a value 50% greater than the IPCC projections.
So, I am certainly happy to accept the temperature record since 1998 is two short to distinguish between accelerated warming, and a reversal of warming. That, of course, being all that the error bars tell you. I am also happy to accept that the measured trend is positive, not zero.
I am not happy, as the deniers are trying to do, to say that the temperature record alone since 1998 is insufficient to distinguish between zero trend and 50% greater than IPCC projected trend, and that therefore the IPCC projection has been falsified - which is what the deniers have been repeatedly trying to do.
I will certainly not do so when the use of additional information beyond the temperature record (ie, the ENSO record, etc) shows the underlying trend to be about 0.212 +/- 0.097 C per decade.
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CTG at 11:51 AM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Still haven't bothered to learn any statistics, eh Andy? Leaving aside the issue of cherrypicked time periods, it is not true to say that if the slope of a linear trend is not significantly different from zero then the slope is equal to zero. It is simply that zero is included in the range of the possible values of the true slope of the trend.
Also, confidence limits on a regression are two-tailed, so it would be equally justified to claim that the rate of warming has increased over the last 15 years, as the high end of the confidence limits includes values greater than the warming trend over the last 40 years. This highlights the importance of choosing the correct null, as keithpickering pointed out earlier. The question is not whether or not there has been warming in the last 15 years, but is the trend of the last 15 years consistent with the earlier warming trend. Until such time as you can demonstrate that the current trend has deviated from the previous trend in a statistically significant way, you cannot claim that there has been "no warming".
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Philippe Chantreau at 11:43 AM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Signs are accumulating that point to an increasing likelihood of any exchange with Andy S to be a waste of time.
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dana1981 at 11:31 AM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
AndyS @46 - "does SkS accept that there has been no warming of land temps for the last 15 years or so?"
Nope, that's not accurate. The surface temp trend over the past 15 years is small, but still positive, even if starting in 1997/8 (which is a cherrypick due to the massive El Niño that year).
"there is a difference between the statement "global warming has stopped" and "there has been no significant change in surface temperature anomaly".
That's certainly true.
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AndyS at 11:04 AM on 28 February 2013Did Murdoch's The Australian Misrepresent IPCC Chair Pachauri on Global Warming?
Leaving aside the ocean warming issue, does SkS accept that there has been no warming of land temps for the last 15 years or so?
i.e there is a difference between the statement "global warming has stopped" and "there has been no significant change in surface temperature anomaly". -
Philippe Chantreau at 10:28 AM on 28 February 2013George Will - Still Recycling Classic Climate Change Myths for The Washington Post
There is a sizeable portion the conservative population that calls liberal media any outlet that publishes anything that is found threatening to an ideology with which there is an overwhelming emotional involvement. George Will demonstrates how that emotional involvement gets the better of one's judgement. A very clear example of this was given by the latest election.
As results started to come in and forecast could be made more and more accurate, any source projecting a result that was emotionally unacceptable was subjected to some sort of attack, often personal and removed from the subject matter. Eventually an more emotionally pleasing reality was substituted to the threatening one, and it was kept up by all possible means until denial became competely impossible to keep up.
The same behavior is observed toward AGW or anything that threatens the ideology. In the case of AGW, denial is rendered easier and deeper by the slow pace, the relatively subtle changes and the solid scientific litteracy necessary to understand the subject, litteracy that lacks in a large portion of the general population. I predict that, even when summer Arctic sea ice will have become a thing of the past, there will still be plenty of denial to go around.
George Will or Kevin's behaviors are predictable and understandable: they are defense mechanisms.
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