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New research, October 16-22, 2017

Posted on 26 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. Each week there are new research papers from all over the world. To illustrate this, the figure below shows the rough study locations of this week's papers (those who express their study location clearly in the abstract or in the title).

Climate change impacts

1. Drier climate shifts leaf morphology in Amazonian trees

"When accounting for such biases, our results indicate a trend of decreasing leaf size after the 1970s, which may have been spurred by an observed reduction in rainfall."

2. An Anthropological Perspective on the Climate Change and Violence Relationship

"Given that individuals make choices to respond violently or not based on their perceptions of these complex, interacting social and environmental conditions, violence in response to global climate change is not inevitable."

3. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

"We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to four weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread."

4. Influence of increasing temperature on the scorpion sting incidence by climatic regions

"Positive correlations among temperature and scorpion sting cases were found (R = 0.59 and 0.70 in the HR and WR, respectively). Regions with the hottest temperatures had the greatest effect, showing a 9.8% (CI 95%: 8.30–11.30) increase in scorpion sting cases per 1 °C increased in temperature. Increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have a delayed effect on scorpion stings cases and these may vary by climatic region."

5. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US?

"Overall, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more."

6. Tropical forests are thermally buffered despite intensive selective logging

"We therefore conclude that selectively logged forests are similar to primary forests in their potential for thermal buffering, and subsequent ability to retain temperature-sensitive species under climate change. Selectively logged forests can play a crucial role in the long-term maintenance of global biodiversity."

7. Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

8. Climate change responses among the Maasai Community in Kenya

9. The regulation of coralline algal physiology, an in situ study of Corallina officinalis (Corallinales, Rhodophyta)

10. Fire activity in Borneo driven by industrial land conversion and drought during El Niño periods, 1982–2010

11. The Eurasian hot nightlife: Environmental forces associated with nocturnality in lizards

12. Assessment of coastal governance for climate change adaptation in Kenya

13. Surface water CO2 concentration influences phytoplankton production but not community composition across boreal lakes

14. Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

15. Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments

16. A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire

17. Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland

18. Glacier loss and hydro-social risks in the Peruvian Andes

19. Assessment of canola crop lodging under elevated temperatures for adaptation to climate change

20. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah

21. Climate-smart agroforestry: Faidherbia albida trees buffer wheat against climatic extremes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

22. Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño

23. Global and regional trends in particulate air pollution and attributable health burden over the past 50 years

24. Snow damage strongly reduces the strength of the carbon sink in a primary subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest

25. Data-constrained projections of methane fluxes in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in response to elevated CO2 and warming

26. A newly identified role of the deciduous forest floor in the timing of green-up

27. Are smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change supported by climate records? A case study of Lower Gweru in semi-arid central Zimbabwe

28. Implications of climate change for the sugarcane industry

29. European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges

30. Differential declines in Alaskan boreal forest vitality related to climate and competition

31. Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere

32. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources

33. Global Climate Change Increases Risk of Crop Yield Losses and Food Insecurity in the Tropical Andes

Climate change mitigation

34. The effect of renewable and nonrenewable electricity generation on economic growth

"Our results indicate a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between renewable and nonrenewable electricity generation, and growth."

35. A nuclear- to-gas transition in South Korea: Is it environmentally friendly or economically viable?


• Renewable energy can provide < 150 TWh of total electricity demand in South Korea.
• A gas transition will increase greenhouse-gas emissions in the electricity sector in South Korea.
• A gas transition will make the energy systems of South Korea vulnerable to external changes.
• A gas-focused energy future is being neither environmentally friendly nor economic.
The nuclear pathway offers the most viable policy for South Korea."

36. Economic and environmental costs of replacing nuclear fission with solar and wind energy in Sweden

"Replacing nuclear power with renewables in Sweden increases greenhouse-gas emissions."

37. Mobile measurement of methane emissions from natural gas developments in northeastern British Columbia, Canada

"Our results show that ~ 47 % of active wells were emitting. Abandoned and aging wells were also associated with emissions. We estimate methane emissions from this development are just over 111 Mt year−1, which is more than previous government estimates, but less than similar studies in the US."

38. Understanding stress effects of wind turbine noise – The integrated approach

39. Analysis of the relationship between local climate change mitigation actions and greenhouse gas emissions – Empirical insights

40. Fossil fuel subsidies in the Pacific island context: Analysis of the case of Kiribati

41. Investigating the rebound effect in road transport system: Empirical evidence from China

42. An assessment of individual foodprints attributed to diets and food waste in the United States

43. The moderating role of political affiliation in the link between flooding experience and preparedness to reduce energy use

44. Regional Climate Variability under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

45. On the role of efficient cogeneration for meeting Mexico's clean energy goals

46. Co-benefits of integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Canadian energy sector

47. Sustainability performance for Brazilian electricity power industry: An assessment integrating social, economic and environmental issues

48. Carbon sequestration by mangrove forest: One approach for managing carbon dioxide emission from coal-based power plant

49. Organic carbon storage change in China's urban landfills from 1978–2014

50. Investigating the multivariate Granger causality between energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Ghana

51. Promoting green residential buildings: Residents' environmental attitude, subjective knowledge, and social trust matter

Climate change

52. Recent very hot summers in northern hemispheric land areas measured by wet bulb globe temperature will be the norm within 20 years

"We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century."

53. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

"Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape."

54. Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area

"For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves."

55. Light-absorbing impurities in a southern Tibetan Plateau glacier: Variations and potential impact on snow albedo and radiative forcing

56. Can we monitor snow properties on sea ice to investigate its role in tropospheric ozone depletion?

57. State-dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

58. Southern Hemisphere bog persists as a strong carbon sink during droughts

59. Impacts of climate and land use on N2O and CH4 fluxes from tropical ecosystems in the Mt. Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania

60. Role of cloud feedback in regulating the “pool of inhibited cloudiness” over the Bay of Bengal

61. Role of Pacific trade winds in driving ocean temperatures during the recent slowdown and projections under a wind trend reversal

62. Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes

63. Spatio-temporal pattern of meteorological droughts and its possible linkage with climate variability

64. Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

65. Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming: moisture budget decompositions and the sources of uncertainty

66. Changes in extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and its association with global mean temperature and ENSO

67. Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the yellow sea in december 2004

68. Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall

69. A satellite-derived climatology of unreported tornadoes in forested regions of northeast Europe

70. Numerical modeling of the active layer thickness and permafrost thermal state across Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

71. Spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness under contemporary and projected climate in the Northern Hemisphere

72. Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections

73. Low-Frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble

74. Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015

75. Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100

76. Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models

77. Evolving impacts of multi-year La Niña events on atmospheric circulation and US drought

78. Reconstructing the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon since the late 19th century

79. Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia

80. Dynamic downscaling over western Himalayas: Impact of cloud microphysics schemes

Other papers

81. A growing threat to the ozone layer from short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons

"We have observed large amounts of man-made chlorine compounds in E and SE Asia and in the upper tropical troposphere. These relatively short-lived compounds are not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, but if significant quantities were able to reach the stratosphere, the long-term recovery of stratospheric ozone would be delayed."

82. Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

"We find a significant ozone recovery since 1998 in the midlatitude upper stratosphere, with no hemispheric difference."

83. The Not-so Marginal Value of Weather Warning Systems

84. The spatial structure of the 128 ka Antarctic sea ice minimum

85. Temporal variability of the Charlotte (sub)urban heat island

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