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New research, October 16-22, 2017
Posted on 26 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. Each week there are new research papers from all over the world. To illustrate this, the figure below shows the rough study locations of this week's papers (those who express their study location clearly in the abstract or in the title).
Climate change impacts
1. Drier climate shifts leaf morphology in Amazonian trees
"When accounting for such biases, our results indicate a trend of decreasing leaf size after the 1970s, which may have been spurred by an observed reduction in rainfall."
2. An Anthropological Perspective on the Climate Change and Violence Relationship
"Given that individuals make choices to respond violently or not based on their perceptions of these complex, interacting social and environmental conditions, violence in response to global climate change is not inevitable."
3. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change
"We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to four weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread."
4. Influence of increasing temperature on the scorpion sting incidence by climatic regions
"Positive correlations among temperature and scorpion sting cases were found (R = 0.59 and 0.70 in the HR and WR, respectively). Regions with the hottest temperatures had the greatest effect, showing a 9.8% (CI 95%: 8.30–11.30) increase in scorpion sting cases per 1 °C increased in temperature. Increase in minimum and maximum temperatures have a delayed effect on scorpion stings cases and these may vary by climatic region."
5. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US?
"Overall, southern portions of the western US are expected to get less recharge in the future and northern portions will get more."
6. Tropical forests are thermally buffered despite intensive selective logging
"We therefore conclude that selectively logged forests are similar to primary forests in their potential for thermal buffering, and subsequent ability to retain temperature-sensitive species under climate change. Selectively logged forests can play a crucial role in the long-term maintenance of global biodiversity."
8. Climate change responses among the Maasai Community in Kenya
11. The Eurasian hot nightlife: Environmental forces associated with nocturnality in lizards
12. Assessment of coastal governance for climate change adaptation in Kenya
14. Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea
18. Glacier loss and hydro-social risks in the Peruvian Andes
19. Assessment of canola crop lodging under elevated temperatures for adaptation to climate change
20. Weather and eared grebe winter migration near the Great Salt Lake, Utah
22. Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño
26. A newly identified role of the deciduous forest floor in the timing of green-up
28. Implications of climate change for the sugarcane industry
29. European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges
30. Differential declines in Alaskan boreal forest vitality related to climate and competition
31. Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere
32. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources
Climate change mitigation
34. The effect of renewable and nonrenewable electricity generation on economic growth
"Our results indicate a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between renewable and nonrenewable electricity generation, and growth."
- • Renewable energy can provide < 150 TWh of total electricity demand in South Korea.
- • A gas transition will increase greenhouse-gas emissions in the electricity sector in South Korea.
- • A gas transition will make the energy systems of South Korea vulnerable to external changes.
- • A gas-focused energy future is being neither environmentally friendly nor economic.
- • The nuclear pathway offers the most viable policy for South Korea."
"Replacing nuclear power with renewables in Sweden increases greenhouse-gas emissions."
"Our results show that ~ 47 % of active wells were emitting. Abandoned and aging wells were also associated with emissions. We estimate methane emissions from this development are just over 111 Mt year−1, which is more than previous government estimates, but less than similar studies in the US."
38. Understanding stress effects of wind turbine noise – The integrated approach
40. Fossil fuel subsidies in the Pacific island context: Analysis of the case of Kiribati
41. Investigating the rebound effect in road transport system: Empirical evidence from China
42. An assessment of individual foodprints attributed to diets and food waste in the United States
44. Regional Climate Variability under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering
45. On the role of efficient cogeneration for meeting Mexico's clean energy goals
49. Organic carbon storage change in China's urban landfills from 1978–2014
Climate change
"We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century."
53. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective
"Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape."
54. Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area
"For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves."
57. State-dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity
58. Southern Hemisphere bog persists as a strong carbon sink during droughts
60. Role of cloud feedback in regulating the “pool of inhibited cloudiness” over the Bay of Bengal
62. Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes
68. Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall
69. A satellite-derived climatology of unreported tornadoes in forested regions of northeast Europe
72. Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections
74. Attribution analysis of the Ethiopian drought of 2015
75. Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100
76. Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models
77. Evolving impacts of multi-year La Niña events on atmospheric circulation and US drought
78. Reconstructing the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon since the late 19th century
79. Climatological Variability of Fire Weather in Australia
80. Dynamic downscaling over western Himalayas: Impact of cloud microphysics schemes
Other papers
81. A growing threat to the ozone layer from short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons
"We have observed large amounts of man-made chlorine compounds in E and SE Asia and in the upper tropical troposphere. These relatively short-lived compounds are not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, but if significant quantities were able to reach the stratosphere, the long-term recovery of stratospheric ozone would be delayed."
82. Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites
"We find a significant ozone recovery since 1998 in the midlatitude upper stratosphere, with no hemispheric difference."
83. The Not-so Marginal Value of Weather Warning Systems
84. The spatial structure of the 128 ka Antarctic sea ice minimum
85. Temporal variability of the Charlotte (sub)urban heat island
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