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New research, March 5-11, 2018

Posted on 15 March 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #57.

Climate change

1. Insights into Atmospheric Predictability Through Global Convection-Permitting Model Simulations

2. Dynamical core in atmospheric model does matter in the simulation of Arctic climate

Extreme events

3. Changes in tropical cyclone activity in north Indian Ocean during satellite era (1981–2014)

"The frequency and duration of intense cyclones (wind speed >64 knots) show notable increase in recent years. However, a decreasing trend is observed in total frequency."

4. Drought persistence errors in global climate models

5. Relationship of drought frequency and severity with range of annual temperature variation

Temperature and precipitation

6. Unrealized Global Temperature Increase: Implications of Current Uncertainties

"Within these uncertainty ranges the increase in GMST due to temperature lag for future forcings held constant is slight (0.09–0.19 K over 20 years; 0.12–0.26 K over 100 years). However the incremental increase in GMST that would result from a hypothetical abrupt cessation of sources of aerosols could be quite large, but is highly uncertain, 0.1–1.3 K over 20 years."

7. Weak cooling of cold extremes vs. continued warming of hot extremes in China during the recent global surface warming hiatus

"Although mean temperature experienced warming hiatus after 1998, the continued warming of hot extremes and reverse from warming to weak cooling of cold extremes imply an increase of temperature variability in China simultaneously."

8. Influences of Pacific Climate Variability on Decadal Subsurface Ocean Heat Content Variations in the Indian Ocean

9. Multidecadal Changes of Upper-ocean Thermal Conditions in the Tropical Northwest Pacific Ocean versus South China Sea during 1960-2015

10. Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets

11. On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

12. Bioclimatic conditions of the winter months in Western Kazakhstan and their dynamics in relation to climate change

13. Air temperature conditions in northern Nordaustlandet (NE Svalbard) at the end of World War II

14. An extreme climate transition in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands. I. Evidence of teleconnection with the 1976/1977 Pacific climate shift

15. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector (open access)

16. Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871–2016

17. Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

18. Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

19. An assessment of the XBT Fall-Rate Equation in the Southern Ocean

"The overall depth bias was positive, further supporting the hypothesis of a regional dependence of the XBT fall-rate on water temperature, which leads to a general overestimation of Ocean Heat Content in the upper layer (~4.79 x 109J/ or ~10%)."

Forcings and feedbacks

20. Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate (open access)

"Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface."

21. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia (open access)

22. Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area (open access)

Carbon cycle

23. Atmospheric CO2 inversions on the mesoscale using data-driven prior uncertainties: quantification of the European terrestrial CO2 fluxes (open access)

24. The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model (open access)

25. Forecasting responses of a northern peatland carbon cycle to elevated CO2 and a gradient of experimental warming

Hydrosphere

26. Glacial lakes in Austria - Distribution and formation since the Little Ice Age (open access)

27. Salinification in the South China Sea since late 2012: a reversal of the freshening since 1990s

28. Long-term and seasonal trends in estuarine and coastal carbonate systems

29. The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections (open access)

30. Linear Predictability: A Sea Surface Height Case Study

Cryosphere

31. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016) (open access)

32. Sensitivity of glaciation in the arid subtropical Andes to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation

33. Geodetic reanalysis of annual glaciological mass balances (2001–2011) of Hintereisferner, Austria (open access)

34. Using SAR satellite data time series for regional glacier mapping (open access)

35. Climatology of snow phenology over the Tibetan plateau for the period 2001–2014 using multisource data

36. Historical and future changes of frozen ground in the upper Yellow River Basin

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

37. Origin of early-spring central Pacific warming as the 1982–1983 El Niño precursor

38. Downward Wave Coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere under Future Anthropogenic Climate Change

39. Understanding Bjerknes Compensation in Meridional Heat Transports and the Role of Freshwater in a Warming Climate

40. Does extreme El Niño have a different effect on the stratosphere in boreal winter than its moderate counterpart?

Climate change impacts

Mankind

41. Willingness to Pay to Avoid Water Restrictions in Australia Under a Changing Climate (open access)

42. Resettlement as climate change adaptation: what can be learned from state-led relocation in rural Africa and Asia?

43. Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation (open access)

44. Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change in Central America and Mexico: current knowledge and research gaps

45. Constraints to the capacity of smallholder farming households to adapt to climate change in South and Southeast Asia

46. Impact of regional climate model projected changes on rice yield over southern India

47. Archetypes of Climate Vulnerability: a Mixed-method Approach Applied in the Peruvian Andes

48. New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates

49. Land, Water, and Wind Watershed Cycle: a strategic use of water, land and wind for climate change adaptation

50. Harnessing cross-border resources to confront climate change

51. Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

52. Preparing for the health impacts of climate change in Indigenous communities: The role of community-based adaptation (open access)

Biosphere

53. Climate effects on vegetation vitality at the treeline of boreal forests of Mongolia (open access)

54. Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

55. Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones (open access)

"We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity."

56. Population collapse dynamics in Acropora downingi, an Arabian/Persian Gulf ecosystem-engineering coral, linked to rising temperature

"Observed population collapse and environmental changes in the Gulf suggest that A. downingi is heading towards at least functional extinction mainly due to increasingly frequent temperature-induced mortality events, clearly linked to climate change."

57. Effect of temperature rise and ocean acidification on growth of calcifying tubeworm shells (Spirorbis spirorbis): an in situ benthocosm approach (open access)

"The worms were able to grow tubes even at CO2 levels favouring shell dissolution but did not survive at mean temperatures over 24° C. This indicates that Spirorbisworms will suffer from future excessive ocean warming and from ocean acidification fostering corrosion of their protective tubes."

58. Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network

59. Process-oriented modeling of a high Arctic tundra ecosystem: Long-term carbon budget and ecosystem responses to interannual variations of climate

60. Persistent nitrogen limitation of stream biofilm communities along climate gradients in the arctic

61. Combining abundance and performance data reveals how temperature regulates coastal occurrences and activity of a roaming apex predator

"For example, tiger sharks are mostly caught at Australia's popular New South Wales beaches (i.e. near Sydney) in the warmest months, but our data suggest similar abundances will occur in winter and summer if annual sea surface temperatures increase by a further 1–2°C."

62. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

63. Multi-Decadal Changes and Interannual Variation in Springtime Phenology of North American Temperate and Boreal Deciduous Forests

64. Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

65. Increasingly important role of atmospheric aridity on Tibetan alpine grasslands

66. Elucidating the sponge stress response; lipids and fatty acids can facilitate survival under future climate scenarios

67. Elevated CO2 and water addition enhance nitrogen turnover in grassland plants with implications for temporal stability

Climate change mitigation

68. Keeping global climate change within 1.5 °C through net negative electric cities

69. Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to stabilize climate at 1.5 and 2.0 °C rise in global temperatures to year 2300

70. Small-scale farmers in a 1.5°C future: The importance of local social dynamics as an enabling factor for implementation and scaling of climate-smart agriculture (open access)

71. Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world (open access)

72. Coal taxes as supply-side climate policy: a rationale for major exporters?

73. Potential and costs of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering of rocks

74. Consumers' perceptions of energy use and energy savings: A literature review (open access)

75. Household time use, carbon footprints, and urban form: a review of the potential contributions of everyday living to the 1.5 °C climate target (open access)

76. Comparison and evaluation of anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over China (open access)

77. Consumption-based versus production-based accounting of CO2 emissions: Is there evidence for carbon leakage?

78. What about greenhouse gas emissions from students? An analysis of lifestyle and carbon footprints at the University of Applied Science in Konstanz, Germany

79. A social trap for the climate? Collective action, trust and climate change risk perception in 35 countries

80. The literature landscape on 1.5 °C climate change and cities

81. Land use policies and deforestation in Brazilian tropical dry forests between 2000 and 2015 (open access)

82. Implementing nationally determined contributions: building energy policies in India's mitigation strategy (open access)

83. Meeting conditional targets in nationally determined contributions of developing countries: Renewable energy targets and required investment of GGGI member and partner countries

84. Exploring synergies between the intended nationally determined contributions and electrification goals of Ethiopia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (open access)

85. High-resolution quantification of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada (open access)

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

86. Sundaland peat carbon dynamics and its contribution to the Holocene atmospheric CO2 concentration

87. Astronomical tunings of the Oligocene–Miocene transition from Pacific Ocean Site U1334 and implications for the carbon cycle (open access)

"Furthermore, it provides independent evidence that the relatively large (several 10 000 years) time lags documented in the benthic foraminiferal isotope records relative to orbital eccentricity constitute a real feature of the Oligocene–Miocene climate system and carbon cycle. The age constraints from Site U1334 thus indicate that the delayed responses of the Oligocene–Miocene climate–cryosphere system and (marine) carbon cycle resulted from highly non-linear feedbacks to astronomical forcing."

88. Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages (open access)

89. Evidences of anthropogenic tipping points in fluvial dynamics in Europe

90. Observations for Reanalyses (open access)

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