Arguments
New research, April 16-22, 2018
Posted on 27 April 2018 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.
Climate change
Temperature, precipitation, wind
1. Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability (open access)
"We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT."
3. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate
4. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction
5. An analysis of spatial representativeness of air temperature monitoring stations
6. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals (open access)
7. Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater (open access)
Extreme events
"These extreme events have shown an uptrend in China's megacities and are projected to further increase in the future. Notably, the projected intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events in China's three urban agglomerations is lower under 1.5 °C global warming compared with 2 °C."
9. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
"Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply?demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north?west China, and parts of Southern America."
10. Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective
11. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China (open access)
13. Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City (open access)
14. Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
Forcings and feedbacks
15. The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in Incident Infrared Radiation
"Ocean warming trends are observed and coincide with the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from human activities. At the ocean surface, most of the incoming infrared (IR) radiation is absorbed within the top micrometers of the ocean's surface where the thermal skin layer (TSL) exists. Thus, the incident IR radiation does not directly heat the upper few meters of the ocean. This paper investigates the physical mechanism between the absorption of IR radiation and its effect on heat transfer at the air?sea boundary. The hypothesis is that given the heat lost through the air?sea interface is controlled by the TSL, the TSL adjusts in response to variations in incident IR radiation to maintain the surface heat loss. This modulates the flow of heat from below and hence controls upper ocean heat content. This hypothesis is tested using the increase in incoming longwave radiation from clouds and analyzing vertical temperature profiles in the TSL retrieved from sea?surface emission spectra. The additional energy from the absorption of increasing IR radiation adjusts the curvature of the TSL such that the upward conduction of heat from the bulk of the ocean into the TSL is reduced. The additional energy absorbed within the TSL supports more of the surface heat loss. Thus, more heat beneath the TSL is retained leading to the observed increase in upper ocean heat content."
"One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations."
17. Insights into the diurnal cycle of global Earth outgoing radiation using a numerical weather prediction model (open access)
18. Toward Global Mapping of Methane With TROPOMI: First Results and Intersatellite Comparison to GOSAT (open access)
19. Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982–2009
20. Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target (open access)
Cryosphere
26. Subglacial drainage patterns of Devon Island, Canada: detailed comparison of rivers and subglacial meltwater channels (open access)
28. Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt (open access)
29. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016) (open access)
Hydrosphere
30. Bias in Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level Change Inferred from Satellite Altimetry
"We demonstrate that using satellite altimetry records to estimate global ocean volume changes can lead to biases that can exceed 15%. The level of bias will depend on the relative contributions to sea level changes from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets."
32. The sign, magnitude and potential drivers of change in surface water extent in Canadian tundra (open access)
33. A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change
34. Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)
Atmospheric and oceanic circulation
38. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
39. Multi-decadal timeseries of the Indonesian throughflow
40. Unprecedented 2015/2016 Indo?Pacific Heat Transfer Speeds Up Tropical Pacific Heat Recharge
Carbon cycle
42. Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short-term variability of pCO2 on the Scotian Shelf, NW Atlantic (open access)
44. Global effects of plant litter alterations on soil CO2 to the atmosphere
45. Interannual drivers of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in the Southern Ocean (open access)
Climate change impacts
Mankind
47. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts
48. The Effects of Social Connections on Evacuation Decision Making during Hurricane Irma
49. Climate security assessment of countries
50. Integration anxiety: The cognitive isolation of climate change
51. Global change effects on land management in the Mediterranean region
Biosphere
52. Ocean acidification changes the structure of an Antarctic coastal protistan community (open access)
"This study shows a shift in a natural Antarctic microbial community, with CO2 levels exceeding 634 μatm changing the community composition and favouring small cells. This would have significant flow effects for Antarctic food webs and elemental cycles."
53. Natural ocean acidification at Papagayo upwelling system (north Pacific Costa Rica): implications for reef development (open access)
"Local coral reefs are exposed to acidic and undersaturated waters in upwelling and non-upwelling events. These restrictive conditions occur alongside local stressors, potentially decreasing reefs' resilience and increasing their vulnerability under future OA."
54. Mass coral bleaching causes biotic homogenization of reef fish assemblages
57. The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range (open access)
58. Nitrous oxide emissions could reduce the blue carbon value of marshes on eutrophic estuaries (open access)
59. Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany's forests under climate change (open access)
60. Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study (open access)
61. Elevated CO2 did not affect the hydrological balance of a mature native Eucalyptus woodland
62. Is there a substitution of Pinaceae by Fagaceae in temperate forests at the global scale?
"Our results indicate a widespread increase in dominance of Fagaceae species at the expense of Pinaceae across northern temperate forests, with the exception of Eastern North America."
63. Plants and Drought in a Changing Climate
Climate change mitigation
65. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land?based climate?change mitigation efforts
66. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment (open access)
Emission savings
67. Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization (open access)
68. Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions (open access)
69. Economic drivers of telecoupling and terrestrial carbon fluxes in the global soybean complex
70. CO2 abatement goals for international shipping (open access)
Energy production
71. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2?°C scenarios to expert projections
72. Emerging energy sources for electric vehicle charging station
73. How households adapted their energy use during the Zambian energy crisis
Other papers
General climate science
74. A Dynamically Consistent, Multi-Variable Ocean Climatology (open access)
Palaeoclimatology
75. Coral?Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium
"Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca?sea surface temperatures indicate that the “Little Ice Age (1711–1817 CE)” period was ~0.7°C cooler than the “Medieval Climate Anomaly (913?1132 CE)” and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium."
77. Accumulation patterns around Dome C, East Antarctica, in the last 73?kyr (open access)
78. Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing
In a first-of-its-kind study, scientists have combined an array of NASA satellite observations of Earth with data on human activities to map locations where freshwater is changing around the globe and why.