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Climate Hustle

New research, June 18-24, 2018

Posted on 29 June 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

On the Time of Emergence of Tropical Width Change

Modeling the climate and carbon systems to estimate the social cost of carbon

Temperature, precipitation, wind

On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)

How have daily climate extremes changed in the recent past over northeastern Argentina?

Ensemble-based CMIP5 simulations of West African summer monsoon rainfall: current climate and future changes

Secular variation of rainfall regime in the central region of Argentina

On the determination of global ocean wind and wave climate from satellite observations

Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO‐CORDEX Ensemble Simulations

Seasonal contrast of the dominant factors for spatial distribution of land surface temperature in urban areas

Extreme events

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming (open access)

Characterizing the exceptional 2014 drought event in São Paulo by drought period length

Multi-model extreme event attribution of the weather conducive to the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire

The Impact of Drought on Native Southern California Vegetation: Remote Sensing Analysis Using MODIS‐Derived Time Series

Forcings and feedbacks

Reconciling Atmospheric and Oceanic Views of the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (open access)

Effective Radiative Forcing and Climate Response to Short‐Lived Climate Pollutants Under Different Scenarios (open access)

Aerosol Optical Depth variability over the Arabian Peninsula as inferred from satellite measurements

Impact of aerosol and water vapour on SW radiation at the surface: Sensitivity study and applications

Trend differences in lower stratospheric water vapour between Boulder and the zonal mean and their role in understanding fundamental observational discrepancies (open access)

Sensitivities of modelled water vapour in the lower stratosphere: temperature uncertainty, effects of horizontal transport and small-scale mixing (open access)

Spatial distribution, temporal variation, and transport characteristics of atmospheric water vapor over Central Asia and the arid region of China

Local Radiative Feedbacks Over the Arctic Based on Observed Short‐Term Climate Variations

Upper Ocean Cooling in a Coupled Climate Model Due to Light Attenuation by Yellowing Materials

Evaluation of Radiative Transfer Models With Clouds

The urban growth of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo and its impact on the climate (open access)

Cryosphere

The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era (open access)

Glacier Energy and Mass Balance in the Inland Tibetan Plateau: Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Changes (open access)

Linkages of the dynamics of glaciers and lakes with the climate elements over the Tibetan Plateau

The Impact of Stratospheric Circulation Extremes on Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Local topography increasingly influences the mass balance of a retreating cirque glacier (open access)

Ice velocity of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Petermann Glacier, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, and Zachariæ Isstrøm, 2015–2017, from Sentinel 1-a/b SAR imagery (open access)

Hydrosphere 

Continued warming, salinification and oxygenation of the Greenland Sea gyre

The sensitivity of estuarine aragonite saturation state and pH to the carbonate chemistry of a freshet-dominated river (open access)

Insights into the zonal-mean response of the hydrologic cycle to global warming from a diffusive energy balance model

Spatiotemporal changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over semi-arid and humid regions of Iran: trend, cause, and sensitivity analyses

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Multicentury Instability of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation in Rapid Warming Simulations With GISS ModelE2

"In the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, when global warming due to higher CO2 levels was sufficiently advanced, and the effect of aerosols on cloud cover included, the North Atlantic overturning ocean circulation shuts down. It stayed off for about 1,000 years and then suddenly resumed."

Climatic Effect of Antarctic Meltwater Overwhelmed by Concurrent Northern Hemispheric Melt (open access)

Changes in atmospheric blocking circulations linked with winter Arctic warming: A new perspective

Evaluating ENSO teleconnections using observations and CMIP5 models (open access)

Nearly synchronous multidecadal oscillations of surface air temperature in Punta Arenas and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index

Carbon cycle

Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty (open access)

Decelerating Autumn CO2 Release With Warming Induced by Attenuated Temperature Dependence of Respiration in Northern Ecosystems

Biotic responses buffer warming‐induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra

Factors regulating carbon sinks in mangrove ecosystems

Upside-down fluxes Down Under: CO2 net sink in winter and net source in summer in a temperate evergreen broadleaf forest (open access)

Response of soil respiration and its components to experimental warming and water addition in a temperate Sitka spruce forest ecosystem

The carbon balance of a Scots pine forest following severe windthrow: Comparison of reforestation techniques

Changes to the Air‐Sea Flux and Distribution of Radiocarbon in the Ocean Over the 21st Century

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Analysis of the Economic Ripple Effect of the United States on the World due to Future Climate Change (open access)

An integrated assessment approach for estimating the economic impacts of climate change on River systems: An application to hydropower and fisheries in a Himalayan River, Trishuli

Weather Variations and International Trade

Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity

Vulnerability to climate change of smallholder farmers in the Hamadan province, Iran (open access)

Biosphere

Geographical CO2 sensitivity of phytoplankton correlates with ocean buffer capacity

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Non‐linear shift from grassland to shrubland in temperate barrier islands

Changes in urban plant phenology in the Pacific Northwest from 1959 to 2016: anthropogenic warming and natural oscillation

The phenology of the subnivium (open access)

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

Cambial phenology and xylogenesis of Juniperus przewalskii over a climatic gradient is influenced by both temperature and drought

Successional change in species composition alters climate sensitivity of grassland productivity

The devil is in the detail: Nonadditive and context‐dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation

Divergent response of seasonally dry tropical vegetation to climatic variations in dry and wet seasons

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Economic, environmental, and social performance indicators of sustainability reporting: Evidence from the Russian oil and gas industry

"The findings suggest that companies with a share of foreign ownership disclose more transparent sustainability information than companies owned only by local investors. Additionally, companies that prepare sustainability reports only in Russian provide more valuable sustainability information than companies that publish reports in both English and Russian."

Emission savings

Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States: revisiting STIRPAT model

Carbon footprints of 13 000 cities (open access)

Can community energy initiatives motivate sustainable energy behaviours? The role of initiative involvement and personal pro-environmental motivation

Evaluation and mitigation of cement CO2 emissions: projection of emission scenarios toward 2030 in China and proposal of the roadmap to a low-carbon world by 2050

Energy production

The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels (open access)

The slow expansion of renewable energy in Russia: Competitiveness and regulation issues

Ecohydrological changes after tropical forest conversion to oil palm (open access)

From decentralization to re-nationalization: Energy policy networks and energy agenda setting in Thailand (1987–2017)

Climate Policy

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change? (open access)

Targeted policies can compensate most of the increased sustainability risks in 1.5 °C mitigation scenarios (open access)

The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia (open access)

Citizen preferences for possible energy policies at the national and state levels

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures (open access)

"We find that two-thirds of the warming pervasive during the mid-Pliocene, compared to the preindustrial, could be attributed to the reduction in the planetary emissivity owing to the higher concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapor, and the remaining one-third to the reduction in planetary albedo. We also find that changes to the orography and the pCO2 are the leading causes of the warming with each contributing in roughly equal parts to a total of 87 % of the warming and changes to the polar ice sheets responsible for the remaining warming." ... "on the short timescale, owing to the influence of fast feedback processes, the climate sensitivity is 3.25 °C per doubling of CO2; sensitivity increases to 4.16 °C per doubling of CO2 on an intermediate timescale as the ice–albedo feedback becomes active, and then sensitivity further increases to 7.0 °C per doubling of CO2 on long timescales due to the feedback from the glacial isostatic adjustment of the Earth's surface in response to the melting of the polar ice sheets. Finally, once the slow feedbacks have stabilized, the sensitivity of the system drops to 3.35 °C per doubling of CO2."

Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

"Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability."

Arctic warming induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet topography (open access)

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. On the matter of research: can somebody direct me to research that compares the political and economic climate denialism of our times to the Aryan physics (Arische Physik, Deutsche Physik) of my parents' times?

    Thanks!

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    Moderator Response:

    [DB] That's not really suitable for this thread.  However, I found this article interesting.

  2. Thanks! It certainly describes Deutsche Physiks.

    I am unsure of where to look for comparisons, so I will try to concoct some home brew.

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  3. DCrickett, I didn't know anything much about Aryan Physics, so I did some reading out of curiosity, and a search in google scholar. This research paper talks about climate change denialism in general and mentions aryan physics.

    Having said that, I think its unlikely you will find much research, because the issue was anti semitism, and there isn't much of a direct modern religious or race based comparison. It's liberal and scientific elites in general being demonised, and much has been written on this. It's become tribal. Climate change denial on wikipedia has a lot of research.

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  4. #3 nigelj ― thanks for your efforts! (By the way, I was unable to reach the research paper thru your link.) So far, my search for serious scholarly study of similarities and differences among different episodes of denial of yet-unfalsified but falsifiable theories (not hypotheses!) concerning objective reality (whatever “reality” is!) has been a dead-end street. Such episodes, some more significant than others, have arisen amazingly often (amazing to me, at least) in the past few centuries.

    So I will try to concoct some home brew on my own. Bearing in mind that he who drinks his own fixin’s is at elevated risk of being struck blind.

    And again, thank you DB! It’s been a while since I read that Scientific American article, which led me to wonder about the matter, which has moved from back-of-the-stove to front-burner in my aging brain.

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  5. D Crickett, hmmm the link works ok on my computer. The paper is as follows. Perhaps try using google search or google scholar.

    "Why We Resist the Truth About Climate ChangeA paper to the Climate Controversies: Science and politics conference
    Museum of Natural Sciences,Brussels, 28 October 2010
    Clive Hamilton1"

    It has a lot of detail on aryan physics, and draws comparisons with how climate denial is currently attacking scientists. I think it is pretty much what you are looking for.

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