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Climate Hustle

New research, September 3-9, 2018

Posted on 14 September 2018 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Inconvenience vs. rationality. Reflections on different faces of climate contrarianism in Poland and Norway

A new, valid measure of climate change understanding: associations with risk perception

Climate Policy

Optimal design of carbon tax to stimulate CCS investment in China's coal‐fired power plants: A real options analysis

Measuring success: improving assessments of aggregate GHG emissions reduction goals (open access)

Gender and climate policy: a discursive institutional analysis of Ethiopia’s climate resilient strategy

Energy production

Has coal use peaked in China: Near-term trends in China's coal consumption

Estimating the value of offshore wind along the United States’ Eastern Coast (open access)

A new approach for assessing synergies of solar and wind power: implications for West Africa (open access)

Governance of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): accounting, rewarding, and the Paris agreement

Linking ecosystem services with epibenthic biodiversity change following installation of offshore wind farms (open access)

Renewable Energy Cooperatives as an instrument towards the energy transition in Spain

Renewable energy in Turkey: Great potential, low but increasing utilization, and an empirical analysis on renewable energy-growth nexus

Emission savings

Further reflections on vulnerability and resistance in the United Kingdom's smart meter transition

Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 ∘C (open access)

Energy use and fossil CO2 emissions for the Canadian fruit and vegetable industries

Clashing interpretations of REDD+ “results” in the Amazon Fund (open access) 

Climate change 

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Arctic amplification: evidence from a cluster analysis of temperature time series for eight latitude bands

Reliability of climate model multi‐member ensembles in estimating internal precipitation and temperature variability at the multi‐decadal scale

Modeling the effect of moss cover on soil temperature and carbon fluxes at a tundra site in northeastern Siberia

Surface temperature in twentieth century at the Styx Glacier, northern Victoria Land, Antarctica, from borehole thermometry

Effects of urbanization on increasing heat risks in South China

Human-perceived temperature changes over South China: Long-term trends and urbanization effects

Warming from recent marine heatwave lingers in deep British Columbia fjord

Changes in aridity and its driving factors in China during 1961–2016

Influence of the Pacific and Indian Ocean climate drivers on the rainfall in Vietnam

Changes in persistent and non-persistent extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2016 (open access)

Spatial and temporal changes in the frequency and magnitude of intense precipitation events in the southeastern United States

California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights from the anomalous 2015‐16 and 2016‐17 seasons

Differences in wind speeds according to measured and homogenized series in the Czech Republic, 1961–2015

Winter climate variability in the southern Appalachian Mountains, 1910–2017

Extreme events

A Recent Reversal in the Poleward Shift of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Differential impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme events over China using statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected CESM low‐warming experiment

Evaluating typical flood risks in Yangtze River Economic Belt: application of a flood risk mapping framework

Re‐Framing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States (open access)

Forcings and feedbacks

No impact of anthropogenic aerosols on early 21st century global temperature trends in a large initial‐condition ensemble

How reliable are CMIP5 models in simulating dust optical depth? (open access)

Can climate models reproduce the decadal change of dust aerosol in East Asia?

Mineral Weathering and the Permafrost Carbon‐Climate Feedback

Factors affecting air temperature in Bulgaria

Cryosphere

Evidence for Predictive Skill of High‐Latitude Climate Due to Midsummer Sea Ice Extent Anomalies

Investigating future changes in the volume budget of the Arctic sea ice in a coupled climate model (open access)

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Toward a satellite‐derived climatology of blowing snow over Antarctica

A constraint upon the basal water distribution and thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet from radar bed echoes (open access)

Mechanisms leading to the 2016 giant twin glacier collapses, Aru Range, Tibet (open access)

Hydrosphere 

Indus River Basin: Future climate and water budget

Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005–2016 (open access)

A 30–35‐year cycle period in cyclonic activity and rainfall regime for southeast Europe in 1948–2013 interval modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation

Interdecadal Weakening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the mid-1980s: The Roles of External Forcings

The Response of Subtropical Highs to Climate Change

Carbon and nitrogen cycles

Rapid Changes in Anthropogenic Carbon Storage and Ocean Acidification in the Intermediate Layers of the Eurasian Arctic Ocean: 1996–2015 (open access)

Autonomous Biogeochemical Floats Detect Significant Carbon Dioxide Outgassing in the High‐Latitude Southern Ocean

Patterns of soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity in grassland ecosystems across China (open access)

Detecting drought impact on terrestrial biosphere carbon fluxes over contiguous US with satellite observations (open access)

Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic pCO2 (open access)

Consumption of atmospheric methane by the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau alpine steppe ecosystem (open access)

Ecosystem‐scale methane flux in tropical peat swamp forest in Indonesia (open access)

Nitrogen uptake potential under different temperature-salinity conditions: Implications for nitrogen cycling under climate change scenarios

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Climate War in the Middle East? Drought, the Syrian Civil War and the State of Climate-Conflict Research

The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya (open access)

Using Google search data to inform global climate change adaptation policy

Modeling the spatially varying risk factors of dengue fever in Jhapa district, Nepal, using the semi-parametric geographically weighted regression model

Can Egypt become self-sufficient in wheat? (open access)

Farmers’ vulnerability to climate shocks: insights from the Niger basin of Benin

Upholding labour productivity under climate change: an assessment of adaptation options (open access)

Future changes in rice yields over the Mekong River Delta due to climate change—Alarming or alerting?

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Agricultural extreme drought assessment at global level using the FAO-Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS)

Biosphere

Slowdown of spring green-up advancements in boreal forests

Expanding, shifting and shrinking: The impact of global warming on species’ elevational distributions

Chronic historical drought legacy exacerbates tree mortality and crown dieback during acute heatwave-compounded drought (open access)

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming

Species persistence under climate change: a geographical scale coexistence problem

Pervasive effects of drought on tree growth across a wide climatic gradient in the temperate forests of the Caucasus

Human footprint and climate disappearance in vulnerable ecoregions of protected areas

Coupling transversal and longitudinal models to better predict Quercus petraea and Pinus sylvestris stand growth under climate change

Differential use of winter precipitation by upper and lower elevation Douglas fir in the Northern Rockies

Other papers

General climate science

The longest one‐man weather chronicle (1721–1786) by Gottfried Reyger for Gdańsk, Poland as a source for improved understanding of past climate variability

Palaeoclimatology

Placing our current ‘hyperthermal’ in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past (open access)

Promising Oldest Ice sites in East Antarctica based on thermodynamical modelling (open access)

Capturing the global signature of surface ocean acidification during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

Persistent tracers of historic ice flow in glacial stratigraphy near Kamb Ice Stream, West Antarctica (open access)

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Comments

Comments 1 to 1:

  1. Humanity has never had a 100% energy transition. We still burn wood.

    Europe gets 50% of its renewable enery burning wood, and do not count the emissions because the trees will grow back in 50 years.

    If world energy demand got 2% more of its energy from wood, we would need 100% more timber harvested.

    Stefan Rahmstorf says we must reduce emissions 100% in 20 years to avoid 2 C.

    Claire Fiore says we must reduce emissions 50% in 10 years to avoid 1.5 C.

    Vaclav Smil says a 100% energy transition takes 70 years, if at all.

    James Hansen says 2 C = DISASTER, 1 C = Dangerous Climate Change.

    We are already at +1 C.

    Permafrost wetlands are turning from carbon banks into carbon bombs and threaten to double emissions. This is not modelled.

    Rainforests and soils are turning from carbon banks into carbon bombs.

    Greenland freshwater runoff has only just very recently included in models.

    Fracking emits 4X more methane than reported and threatens to advance the 2 C tipping point.

    Five tipping points are triggered between 1.5 - 2 C and threaten cascading collapse as do dominos.

    In 10 years freshwater demand will exceed supply by 30%.

    We lost 30% of our soil in the last 40 years.

    By 2020, 66% of animals will be gone.

    Humans and Livestock make 97% of land vertebrate biomass.

    10,000 years ago H&L were 0.03% of land vertebrate biomass.

    We will run out of food and water before we ever transition to 100% renewable energy.

    This is because electricity production is only 20% of total world energy demand.

    https://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/34355/

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