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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45, 2021
Posted on 11 November 2021 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
If the forecast says "rain," bring an umbrella
One of the more thought-provoking articles in this week's collection is Natural hazards and climate change are not drivers of disasters, by Alik Ismail-Zadeh of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. A provocative title, but it's hard to argue with the article's premise, let alone deny our deep and rich history of unsatisfactory outcomes thanks to not paying attention and money where both are mandatory. Dr. Ismail-Zadeh points out that when we're fully informed of risks and hazards, disasters mostly happen only when we ignore that information and fail to take it into account in our systems of communicating and living. In a manner of speaking, our behavior is disastrously oblivious. The author examines some case histories of hazards and risks inadequately folded into plans and actions, and points out specific means to redress the situation. Open access, free to read.
More able hands on deck
It's very pleasing to mention that recently joined Skeptical Science volunteer Dr. Marc Kodack is providing a significant boost to compilation of New Research. We're very fortunate; Marc is arguably "overqualified" for this particular work, given his deep experience in the intersection of climate change and US national security. Marc is currently also (mainly?!) a Senior Fellow at the The Center for Climate and Security. We're delighted to welcome Marc aboard.
82 articles by 445 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
An Analytical Model for Spatially Varying Clear-Sky CO2 Forcing
Jeevanjee et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0756.1
Temperature-dependence of the clear-sky feedback in radiative-convective equilibrium
Kluft et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094649
Observations of climate change, effects
Enhanced Rare Earth Element Mobilization in a Mountain Watershed of the Colorado Mineral Belt with Concomitant Detection in Aquatic Biota: Increasing Climate Change-Driven Degradation to Water Quality
Rue & McKnight Environmental Science & Technology
Open Access pdf 10.1021/acs.est.1c02958
Large wildfire driven increases in nighttime fire activity observed across CONUS from 2003–2020
Freeborn et al. Remote Sensing of Environment
Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112777
On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming
Diffenbaugh & Davenport Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1a
A Continuous Decline of Global Seasonal Wind Speed Range over Land since 1980
Zhou et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0112.1
Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States
Zhuang et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2111875118
Analysis of observed and projected interannual variability in the summer season onset, length, and end dates across the Iran
Sedaghat & Nazaripour Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03852-1
Tricentennial trends in spring ice breakups in three rivers in northern Europe
Norrgård & Helama
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-326
Strengthening of the relationship between West China Autumn Rain and arctic oscillation in the mid-1980s
Zhou et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105916
Glacier tourism and climate change: effects, adaptations, and perspectives in the Alps
Salim et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-021-01849-0
(provisional link) Magnitudes and patterns of large-scale permafrost ground deformation revealed by Sentinel-1 InSAR on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
10.1016/j.rse.2021.112778
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
(provisional link) Global Trends in Downward Surface Solar Radiation from Spatial Interpolated Ground Observations during 1961–2019
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0165.1
Eliminating the “Hook” in Precipitation–Temperature Scaling
Visser et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0292.1
Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis
Dai et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2020jd034510
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Trans-Basin Influence of Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean Warming during Early Boreal Summer
Chen et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0925.1
Influence of Canary upwelling system on coastal SST warming along the 21st century using CMIP6 GCMs
Varela et al. Global and Planetary Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103692
Future frost risks in the Tohoku region of Japan under a warming climate—interpretation of regional diversity in terms of seasonal warming
Masaki Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03834-3
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
(provisional link) The Inherent Uncertainty of Precipitation Variability, Trends, and Extremes due to Internal Variability, with Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1
Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Dong et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26797-5
Comparison of precipitation projections of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models over Yulin, China
Shiru et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03823-6
Cryosphere & climate change
Glacier geometry and flow speed determine how Arctic marine-terminating glaciers respond to lubricated beds
Zheng
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-345
Tricentennial trends in spring ice breakups in three rivers in northern Europe
Norrgård & Helama
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-326
(provisional link) Magnitudes and patterns of large-scale permafrost ground deformation revealed by Sentinel-1 InSAR on the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
10.1016/j.rse.2021.112778
Sea level & climate change
Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise
Harvey et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-021-00300-w
Paleoclimate
Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum
Osman et al. Nature
Open Access 10.1038/s41586-021-03984-4
Enhanced moisture delivery into Victoria Land, East Antarctica, during the early Last Interglacial: implications for West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability
Yan et al. Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-17-1841-2021
The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial
Diamond et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9239
Biology & climate change
(provisional link) A new westward migration route in an Asian passerine bird
10.1016/j.cub.2021.09.086
Identifying the climatic drivers of honey bee disease in England and Wales
Rowland et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-021-01495-w
Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords
Bonnet-Lebrun et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01650-7
Long-term monitoring indicates shifting fall migration timing in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)
Culbertson et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15957
Anthropogenic drivers of avian community turnover from local to regional scales
Di Cecco & Hurlbert Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15967
Temperature effects on community size structure: the value of large-scale biomonitoring programs
Perkins Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15981
Rising temperature modulates pH niches of fen species
Hájek et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15980
Temperature impact on the influence of penguin-derived nutrients and mosses on non-native grass in a simulated polar ecosystem
Bokhorst et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15979
Tropical tree growth sensitivity to climate is driven by species intrinsic growth rate and leaf traits
Bauman et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.06.08.447571
Extreme heat increases stomatal conductance and drought-induced mortality risk in vulnerable plant species
Marchin et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15976
Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
van Soest et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
Low statistical power and overestimated anthropogenic impacts, exacerbated by publication bias, dominate field studies in global change biology
Yang et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15972
Climate change scenarios of increased CO2 and temperature affect a coral reef peracarid (Crustacea) community
Araújo-Silva et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105518
Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs
Kuempel et al. Conservation Biology
10.1111/cobi.13856
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils challenge climate sustainability in the US Corn Belt
Lawrence et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
10.1073/pnas.2112108118
Warming has a minor effect on surface soil organic carbon in alpine meadow ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Chen et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15984
The impact of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition on global forests: Negative impacts far exceed the carbon benefits
Gundale Global Change Biology
Open Access 10.1111/gcb.15959
Measurement report: Regional characteristics of seasonal and long-term variations in greenhouse gases at Nainital, India, and Comilla, Bangladesh
Nomura et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-317
A wavelet-based model of world oil shocks interaction with CO2 emissions in the US
Kassouri et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.020
Reducing model uncertainty of climate change impacts on high latitude carbon assimilation
Rogers et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15958
Dairy Methane Emissions in California’s San Joaquin Valley Inferred Using Ground-based Remote Sensing Field Observations in the Summer and Winter
Heerah et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd034785
(provisional link) Nonlinear interactions of land carbon cycle feedbacks in Earth System Models
10.1111/gcb.15953
Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions (2013–2020)
Lunt et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-548
(provisional link) Data-driven estimates of fertilizer-induced soil NH3, NO and N2O emissions from croplands in China and their climate change impacts
10.1111/gcb.15975
Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming
Klöwer et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507359.1
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Environmental assessment of amending the Amager Bakke incineration plant in Copenhagen with carbon capture and storage
Bisinella et al. Waste Management & Research: The Journal for a Sustainable Circular Economy
10.1177/0734242x211048125
Climate mitigation forestry—temporal trade-offs
Skytt et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac30fa
Decarbonization
Côte d'Ivoire's electricity challenge in 2050: Reconciling economic development and climate commitments
Assoumou & McIsaac Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112681
Estimation of future changes in photovoltaic potential in Australia due to climate change
Poddar et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507147.1
Black carbon
Arctic black carbon during PAMARCMiP 2018 and previous aircraft experiments in spring
Ohata et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-349
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change awareness of the young generation and its impact on their diet
Jürkenbeck et al. Cleaner and Responsible Consumption
Open Access 10.1016/j.clrc.2021.100041
Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa
Helbling et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03241-7
Impact of the built environment on climate change risk perception and psychological distancing: Empirical evidence from Islamabad, Pakistan
Aslam & Rana Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.024
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils challenge climate sustainability in the US Corn Belt
Lawrence et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
10.1073/pnas.2112108118
Crop Diversity Management: Sereer Smallholders' Response to Climatic Variability in Senegal
Ruggieri et al. Journal of Ethnobiology
10.2993/0278-0771-41.3.389
Climatisation of agricultural issues in the international agenda through three competing epistemic communities: Climate-smart agriculture, agroecology, and nature-based solutions
Hrabanski & Le Coq Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.022
Impact of climate on tea production: a study of the Dooars region in India
Mallik & Ghosh Ghosh Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03848-x
Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on soybean growth and gas exchange rates: A modified GLYCIM model
Sun et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108700
(provisional link) Data-driven estimates of fertilizer-induced soil NH3, NO and N2O emissions from croplands in China and their climate change impacts
10.1111/gcb.15975
Hydrology & climate change
(provisional link) The Inherent Uncertainty of Precipitation Variability, Trends, and Extremes due to Internal Variability, with Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1
Placing the east-west North American aridity gradient in a multi-century context
Bishop et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f63
Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes over North America
Cho et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094985
Soil Moisture Continues Declining in North China over the Regional Warming Slowdown of the Past 20 Years
Li et al. Journal of Hydrometeorology
10.1175/jhm-d-20-0274.1
Climate change economics
Lost & Damaged, A study of the economic impact of climate change on vulnerable countries
Environment and Planning D: Society and Space
Open Access 10.1068/d150663
Debt-for-climate swaps: Killing two birds with one stone?
Essers et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102407
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Linking climate science and climate action: An equitable way to raise climate finance
Parikh & Parikh Energy for Sustainable Development
10.1016/j.esd.2021.10.006
Agencies navigating the political at the science-to-policy interface for nature-based solutions
Kirsop-Taylor & Russel Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.029
Dynamic climate clubs: On the effectiveness of incentives in global climate agreements
Nordhaus Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2109988118
Measuring carbon tax incidence using a fully flexible demand system. Vertical and horizontal effects using Irish data
Tovar Reaños & Lynch Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112682
Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
van Soest et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z
Climate Change Acts: Origins, Dynamics, and Consequences
Nash et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1996536
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies
Pavanello et al. Nature Communications
Open Access 10.1038/s41467-021-26592-2
Natural hazards and climate change are not drivers of disasters
Ismail-Zadeh Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05100-1
Geo-based model of intrinsic resilience to climate change: an approach to nature-based solution
Mahmood et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-01925-9
Tackling knowledge and power: an environmental justice perspective on climate change adaptation in Kiribati
Klepp & Fünfgeld Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.1984866
A framework for using autonomous adaptation as a leverage point in sustainable climate adaptation
Tuihedur Rahman et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100376
Enriching the concept of solution space for climate adaptation by unfolding legal and governance dimensions
Du et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.10.021
Climate change impacts on human health
(provisional link) The Psychological and Mental Health Consequences of Climate Change in South Africa
Climate change impacts on human culture Other
WMO Evaluation of Two Extreme High Temperatures Occurring in February 2020 for the Antarctic Peninsula Region
Márcio Rocha et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0040.1
Feminization of surface temperature: Environmental justice and gender inequality among socioeconomic groups
Mashhoodi Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101004
Obtaining articles wihout journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
What does "(provisional link)" mean?
When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.
Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process.
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
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