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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2022

Posted on 14 July 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Innocent until...?

"Loss" in the dollars and cents sense of the insurance industry stemming from our accidental, too-rapid instigation of climate change is a feature of our present. We can look to multiple attribution studies of hydrometeorological anomalies (aka "destructve floods") to confirm this. Multiple projections conducted by a plethora of investigators working across a broad span of disciplines foretell a future of increasing costs due to climate change, in lives and money.  

What of climate change and "damages" in the legal, pecuniary context? Restitution of lives lost is impossible but columns in accounting books are within our power to change. If people won't act intuitively and fairly to compensate for accidental damage to others, we look to the law for help. What may shape the evolution of redress, in terms of "who restores whom," in the money department? Accurate accounting, of course. As it happens, accounting for impacts on Earth's climate and comcomitant dollar damages by our behavior is within our skill set.

It's customary, and also fair: innocent mistakes are seen differently in the eyes of law and justice than are conscious acts of negligence. It's safe to say that profligate extraction, marketing and consumption of fossil fuels largely fell into the category of "oops" until only perhaps three decades ago. It's also arguable that— given emerging ample scientific information about consequences of fossil fuel combustion— over the intervening period between then and now  "hmm" should have rapidly progressed to "uh-oh" and then to "sorry, we'll stop." Arguments to the effect of "you knew better" will in all probability find their way into the process of law given the titanic damages being caused by our accident. 

As with research findings that should have roused good conscience and crystallized action decades ago, factually grounded academic output is available for informing law and policy about our choices and their outcomes. National attribution of historical climate damages by Christopher Callahan & Justin Mankin shows us how this looks as a matter of practice.

Callahan & Mankin's publication is of course part of an inevitable, building wave. Fairness is in our nature, and we can quantify the basis of equitable treatment. We can be fairly sure that should justice find its way to imposing restitutional costs of climate damage responsibility at national scales, accounting will then "follow the money," especially to principal beneficiaries of "oops."

As accountabilty for the eyepopping expense of climate change damage pencil-scratches paths leading from amorphous "nations" to "these particular citizens," a spotlight will be thrown on any and all mechanisms that led to delay in dealing with our fossil fuel problem, and that glare will shine with special brilliance on those who knowingly, intentionally chose to exacerbate harm for personal gain. This harsh illumination will be tinged in the colors of compensatory and punitive damages— lots of money moving to rebalance a scale.  A rational person with an eye to posterity might conclude that now would be a great time to stop paying for campaigns of deceptions and quit while ahead. 

Other notables:

Performance Analysis of Regional Electric Aircraft. From our NGO/GOV section, a delightfully clear-eyed and digestible summary of our prospects for modernizing one segment of the aviation industry. Not least, we can entirely skip the stale trope of "EVs are powered by coal plants." Electrified aircraft afford all the  immediate and steadily increasing benefits as do ground EVs. 

Climate and disaster resilience measurement: Persistent gaps in multiple hazards, methods, and practicabilityWe may not be born able to walk and chew gum at the same time, but we can learn how. Training ourselves for compound disasters is more daunting, but comes in chunks. Laurien et al. describe.

‘We're going all out for shale:’ explaining shale gas energy policy failure in the United Kingdom.  Incoherent, conflicted, axiomatically fratricidal public policy creates mutual exclusivity, both failure and success.  Bradshaw et al. swim in the pool of confusion. 

Communication of solar geoengineering science: Forms, examples, and explanation of skewing. Geoengineering researchers: are they rosy-eyed optimists, or practicing precautionists? Jesse Reynolds presents some replies to this question. 

All of the above open access and free to read. 

133 articles in 52 journals by 756 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns
Lian et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31671-z

General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO2 pulse experiment
An et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-15905-0

Precipitation efficiency constraint on climate change
Li et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01400-x

The climate system and the second law of thermodynamics
Singh & O’Neill, Reviews of Modern Physics, Open Access pdf 10.1103/revmodphys.94.015001

Observations of climate change, effects

Enhanced winter, spring, and summer hydroclimate variability across California from 1940 to 2019
Zamora?Reyes et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7513

Historical trend of probable maximum precipitation in Utah and associated weather types
Gu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7503

Influence of retreating Barents–Kara sea ice on the periodicity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Heo et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7509

Long-term variations of clouds and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau and its subregions, and the associated mechanisms
Tang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7792

Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High-Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa
Iyakaremye et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7485

Study of climate change impacts on the lifespan of a bin weather data set in Senai, Malaysia
Wong et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101219

Super droughts over East Asia since 1960 under the impacts of global warming and decadal variability
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7483

Temperature extremes and circulation types in the Czech Republic, 1961–2020
Zahradní?ek et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7505

Thaw-induced impacts on land and water in discontinuous permafrost: A review of the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield, northwestern Canada
Wright et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104104

Variations in Eurasian surface air temperature over multiple timescales and their possible causes
Qiao et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7504

Variations in the probability distribution function of air temperature anomalies in winter and summer from 1961 to 2016 over China
Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7501

Widespread increasing vegetation sensitivity to soil moisture
Li et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31667-9

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats
Christian et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-394

A stepwise approach for identifying climate change induced socio-economic tipping points
van Ginkel et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100445

Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling
Legates & Outcalt, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7502

NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES)
McGovern et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0020.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Changing compound rainfall events in Tasmania
Earl et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7791

Changing Temporal Volatility of Precipitation Extremes due to Global Warming
Franzke, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7789

Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Omrani et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1

Exceptionally prolonged extreme heat waves over South China in early summer 2020: The role of warming in the tropical Indian Ocean
Cao et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4020059

Impacts of global warming on summer precipitation trend over northeastern Eurasia during 1990–2010 using large-ensemble experiments
Kanamori et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7798

Increased Indian Ocean-North Atlantic Ocean warming chain under greenhouse warming
Yang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31676-8

Model assessments and future projections of spring climate extremes in China based on CMIP6 models
Ai et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7492

Projected changes and uncertainty in cold surges over northern China using the CMIP6 weighted multi-model ensemble
Shuaifeng & Xiaodong Yan, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106334

Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected CMIP6
Salman et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7794

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use & Land Cover Change from 1850 to 2300
Sharma et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jg006738

Unravelling the effect of climate change on fire danger and fire behaviour in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)
Aparício et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03399-8

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Effects of the surface coupling strength in the WRF/Noah-MP model on regional climate simulations over China
Zhang et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-221209/v1

General circulation models for rainfall simulations: Performance assessment using complex networks
Deepthi & Sivakumar, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106333

Populated regional climate models (Pop-RCMs): The next frontier in regional climate modeling
Giorgi & Prein, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000042

Precipitation–temperature relationships over Europe in CORDEX regional climate models
Lhotka & Kyselý, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7508

Cryosphere & climate change

Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
Kittel et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022

Grounding line retreat and tide-modulated ocean channels at Moscow University and Totten Glacier ice shelves, East Antarctica
Li et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-129-supplement

Thaw-induced impacts on land and water in discontinuous permafrost: A review of the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield, northwestern Canada
Wright et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104104

Sea level & climate change

Adaptive response of Dongzhaigang mangrove in China to future sea level rise
Cai et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-15774-7

Lag in response of coastal barrier-island retreat to sea-level rise
Mariotti & Hein, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-022-00980-9

Paleoclimate

Chronostratigraphy of the Larsen blue-ice area in northern Victoria Land, East Antarctica, and its implications for paleoclimate
Lee et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-2301-2022

System responses to Holocene relative sea-level rise and sediment supply in a macrotidal estuary
Best et al., The Holocene, Open Access pdf 10.1177/09596836221106971

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Adaptive response of Dongzhaigang mangrove in China to future sea level rise
Cai et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-15774-7

Assessing life zone changes under climate change scenarios in Brazil
de Lima et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04133-1

Climatic legacy effects on the drought response of the Amazon rainforest
Van Passel et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16336

Environmental spaces for palsas and peat plateaus are disappearing at a circumpolar scale
Könönen et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-135

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity
Brown et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16328

Impact of warming on aquatic body sizes explained by metabolic scaling from microbes to macrofauna
Deutsch et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2201345119

Local environment prevails over population variations in growth-climate relationships of Pinus pinaster provenances
Versace et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125983

Microclimatic conditions mediate the effect of deadwood and forest characteristics on a threatened beetle species, Tragosoma depsarium
Lindman et al., Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-022-05212-w

Soil-plant interactions modulated water availability of Swiss forests during the 2015 and 2018 droughts
Meusburger et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16332

Suggestions for marine protected area management in Australia: a review of temperature trends and management plans
Tan & Fischer, Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01949-5

Temperature variability interacts with mean temperature to influence the predictability of microbial phenotypes
Fu et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16330

Warming tends to decrease ecosystem carbon and water use efficiency in dissimilar ways in an alpine meadow and a cultivated grassland in the Tibetan Plateau
Ganjurjav et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109079

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage
Zemskova et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31560-5

Antecedent water condition determines carbon exchange response to extreme precipitation events across global drylands
Zhao et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04134-0

Climate and mycorrhizae mediate the relationship of tree species diversity and carbon stocks in subtropical forests
Yan et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13962

Impacts of reductions in non-methane short-lived climate forcers on future climate extremes and the resulting population exposure risks in Asia
Li et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-422

Indo-Pacific sector dominates Southern Ocean carbon outgassing
Prend et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007226

Interactions among wildfire, forest type and landscape position are key determinants of boreal forest carbon stocks
Cahoon et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.13963

The European forest carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices
Pilli et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-35

The present state-of-the-art of blue carbon repository in India: a meta-analysis
Akhand et al., Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01181-4

Tropical forests as drivers of lake carbon burial
Amora-Nogueira et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31258-8

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Long-term effects of carbon removal
Franke, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01422-5

Snapshot of the Carbon Dioxide Removal certification and standards ecosystem (2021–2022)
Arcusa & Sprenkle-Hyppolite, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2094308

Decarbonization

A Linear Theory of Wind Farm Efficiency and Interaction
Smith, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 10.1175/jas-d-22-0009.1

Assessment of future wind speed and wind power changes over South Greenland using the MAR regional climate model
Lambin et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7795

Do magnetic fields related to submarine power cables affect the functioning of a common bivalve?
Jakubowska-Lehrmann et al., Marine Environmental Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105700

Emerging local public action in renewable energy production. Discussion of the territorial dimension of the energy transition based on the cases of four intermunicipal cooperation entities in France
Perrin & Bouisset, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113143

How do local actors coordinate to implement a successful biogas project?
Niang et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.06.019

How significant a role can China’s forest sector play in decarbonizing its economy?
Hou & Yin, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2098229

Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Melnikova et al., Earth System Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-13-779-2022

Inefficient Building Electrification Will Require Massive Buildout of Renewable Energy and Seasonal Energy Storage
Buonocore et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-15628-2

Shallow subsurface heat recycling is a sustainable global space heating alternative
Benz et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31624-6

Strategic transport fleet analysis of heavy goods vehicle technology for net-zero targets
Li et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112988

Synchronous condensers as a viable inertia support mechanism on the future South African grid
Roux et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.06.010

Geoengineering climate

Communication of solar geoengineering science: Forms, examples, and explanation of skewing
Reynolds, The Anthropocene Review, Open Access pdf 10.1177/20530196221095569

Black carbon

Black carbon aerosol reductions during COVID-19 confinement quantified by aircraft measurements over Europe
Krüger et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1100

Contrasting source contributions of Arctic black carbon to atmospheric concentrations, deposition flux, and atmospheric and snow radiative effects
Matsui et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1091

Aerosols

Sources, characteristics and climate impact of light-absorbing aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau
Chen et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104111

Climate change communications & cognition

Attention to climate change and downside risk: Evidence from China
Chen et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.13975

Bushfires, COVID-19 and Young People’s Climate Action in Australia
Gunasiri et al., EcoHealth, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10393-022-01595-7

Climate policy expertise in times of populism – knowledge strategies of the AfD regarding Germany’s climate package
Boecher et al., Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2090537

From adoration to damnation? Exploring role of media in shaping low-carbon economy in times of the COVID-19 pandemic
Chodkowska-Miszczuk et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02446-9

Political ideology and psychological reactance: how serious should climate change be?
Chan & Lin, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03372-5

The psychological consequences of the ecological crisis: Three new questionnaires to assess eco-anxiety, eco-guilt, and ecological grief
Csilla et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100441

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A Collective Vision for Agriculture Climate Services in the Asia–Pacific Region
Han et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-22-0100.1

Adaptation, sustainable food systems and healthy diets: an analysis of climate policy integration in Fiji and Vanuatu
Medina Hidalgo et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2095969

Assessing DSSAT performance for predicting yield and water productivity of rainfed canola in a subsurface-drained field
Asgari et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04132-2

Constraints on farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate variability and change
Ofori-Kyereh et al., Climate and Development, Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2022.2083546

Determinants of risk attitude and risk perception under changing climate among farmers in Punjab, Pakistan
Farhan et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access 10.1007/s11069-022-05465-x

Feasibility and Effectiveness Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Climate Change Adaptation for Food Security and Nutrition
Tirado et al., Current Climate Change Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s40641-022-00181-x

Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Melnikova et al., Earth System Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-13-779-2022

Perceived influence of climate variability in the context of multiple stressors on smallholder farmers in southern Mexico
Leroy et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2092439

Thermodynamic assessment of heat stress in dairy cattle: lessons from human biometeorology
Foroushani & Amon, International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02321-2

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Estimation of the effect of future changes in precipitation in Japan on pluvial flood damage and the damage reduction effect of mitigation/adaptation measures
Yanagihara et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000039

Raindrop physics important for future tropical slowdown and extreme precipitation
, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01402-9

Climate change economics

Does emission trading policy restrain economy? A county-scale empirical assessment from Zhejiang Province of China
Hu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113138

The Effects of International Trade on Structural Convergence and CO2 Emissions
Hübler et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00698-7

Vertical fiscal imbalance and energy intensity in China
Liu & Zhang, Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00714-w

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing the effectiveness of orchestrated climate action from five years of summits
Chan et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01405-6

China's CO2 regional synergistic emission reduction: Killing two birds with one stone?
Wang et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113149

Designing publicly funded organisations for accelerated low carbon innovation: A case study of the ETI, UK and ARPA-E, US
Watson, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113088

Economic and environmental impacts of public investment in clean energy RD&D
Castrejon-Campos et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113134

Hidden benefits and dangers of carbon tax
Prasad, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000052

Network governance and renewable energy transition in sub-Saharan Africa: Contextual evidence from Ghana
Francis et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.06.009

Price-Responsive Allowance Supply in Emissions Markets
Burtraw et al., Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 10.1086/720690

South Africa's energy transition – Unraveling its political economy
Hanto et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.06.006

Technology Adoption and Early Network Infrastructure Provision in the Market for Electric Vehicles
van Dijk et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00703-z

The impact on domestic CO2 emissions of domestic government-funded clean energy R&D and of spillovers from foreign government-funded clean energy R&D
Herzer, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113126

‘We're going all out for shale:’ explaining shale gas energy policy failure in the United Kingdom
Bradshaw et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113132

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A climate resilience research renewal agenda: learning lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for urban climate resilience
Pelling et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.1956411

Activating transformation: integrating interior dimensions of climate change in adaptation planning
Wamsler et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2022.2089089

Climate and disaster resilience measurement: Persistent gaps in multiple hazards, methods, and practicability
Laurien et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100443

Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
Benveniste et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w

Climate migration, resilience and adaptation in the Anthropocene: Insights from the migrating Frafra to Southern Ghana
Amo-Agyemang, The Anthropocene Review, 10.1177/20530196221109354

Climate resilience and resistance in Myanmar: transcripts from voiceless women
Cai, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2097162

Evaluating the sensitivity of robust water resource interventions to climate change scenarios
Geressu et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100442

Everyday Adaptation: Theorizing climate change adaptation in daily life
Castro & Sen, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102555

H2020 projects and EU research needs for nature-based adaptation solutions
Al Sayah et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101229

Managing multiple hazards: lessons from anticipatory humanitarian action for climate disasters during COVID-19
Tozier de la Poterie et al., Climate and Development, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.1927659

Resilience of Polish cities and their rainwater management policies
Szpak et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101228

The green climate fund and its shortcomings in local delivery of adaptation finance
Omukuti et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2093152

The mortality cost of climate change
Auffhammer, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01420-7

Climate change impacts on human health

Exploring socio-environmental effects on community health in Edmonton, Canada to understand older adult and immigrant risk in a changing climate
Tilstra et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101225

The mortality cost of climate change
Auffhammer, Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01420-7

Climate change & geopolitics

National attribution of historical climate damages
Callahan & Mankin, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y

Other

Compound impact of land use and extreme climate on the 2020 fire record of the Brazilian Pantanal
Ferreira Barbosa et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13563

Dynamic continuous hydrocarbon accumulation (DCHA): Existing theories and a new unified accumulation model
Hu et al., Earth, 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104109

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation
Herbert-Read et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41559-022-01812-0

Climate change sociology: Past contributions and future research needs
Davidson, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000055

Death by climate change
, Climate Change and Law Collection, Open Access 10.1163/9789004322714_cclc_2017-0214-013

History's legacy: Why future progress in ecology demands a view of the past
Estes & Vermeij, Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3788

Islands in the ice: Potential impacts of habitat transformation on Antarctic biodiversity
Lee et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16331

Populated regional climate models (Pop-RCMs): The next frontier in regional climate modeling
Giorgi & Prein, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000042

Putting a face on carbon with threatened forest primates
Wolf & Ripple, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2207604119

Shifting responsibility and denying justice: New Zealand’s contentious approach to Pacific climate mobilities
Neef & Benge, Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01951-x

Why are people antiscience, and what can we do about it?
Philipp-Muller et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2120755119


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Advancing Nuclear Energy. Evaluating Deployment, Investment, and Impact in America’s Clean Energy Future., Stein et al., Breakthrough Institute

Leadership in new nuclear technologies will powerfully benefit America’s energy future. Advanced nuclear reactors are versatile, reliable, long-lasting, land-efficient, resource-efficient, geopolitically secure, and scalable sources of clean energy. Bold investments in advanced nuclear technologies in the United States will advance technological innovation, secure U.S. leadership in international nuclear markets, and support national energy security and electricity grid resilience, all while improving environmental health and accelerating U.S. climate action. However, forging a promising future for the domestic advanced nuclear sector will require increased investment and policy support. Such efforts will generate far-reaching national benefits in both the near-term and long-term. The authors use a high-resolution nationwide model of the United States electricity sector to demonstrate how advanced nuclear reactors might play a major role in a least-cost plan to transition the power grid entirely to clean energy sources by 2050, assuming that the first advanced reactors are available for deployment by 2030. A range of input assumptions was developed to encompass uncertainty in cost and learning rates to estimate the outer bounds of potential future deployment. Across these scenarios, the model chooses to deploy a large quantity of advanced nuclear power plants.

Politics & Global Warming, April 2022, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Drawing on a nationally representative survey (n = 1,018; including 908 registered voters whose data are included in the report), these findings describe how Democratic, Independent and Republican registered voters view climate and energy policies. This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey. The interview dates were April 13 – May 2, 2022. The average margin of error +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Overall, the authors found that public support for climate and clean energy policies has softened since the author’s last study in September 2021. However, many registered voters say that climate change will be an important issue in the 2022 congressional election.

Battery Electric Vehicles & Low Carbon Fuel Survey, Consumer Reports

In January/February 2022, Consumer Reports conducted a nationally representative multi-mode survey. The purpose of the survey was to gauge Americans’ perspectives and concerns regarding the transportation industry’s effect on the environment and their willingness to make environmentally-friendly transportation choices. The survey measured Americans’ knowledge and experiences with electric-only vehicles, their likelihood of getting one, and their perceptions about barriers preventing and incentives that would encourage them to get a battery-only electric vehicle. The survey also assessed Americans’ awareness about low carbon fuel use in vehicles and aviation and their willingness to use low carbon fuels in their personal vehicle as well as choose flights that use low carbon fuels, when they become available.

Tri-state Survey of Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, June 2022, C|T Group

A state representative survey of n=500 was conducted online with 18+-year-old members of the general public in Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona. Minimum quotas were applied by age, gender, education, ethnicity, and past voting. Respondents were asked to state their political views on a scale of Very right-wing, Right-wing, slightly right-wing, Centre, Slightly left-wing, and Left-wing. Key findings include the following. The majority of people are most concerned with reducing inflation and gas prices, the main contributors to the cost-of-living crisis. Republican voters are more concerned about climate change than election reform. Following the invasion of Ukraine, there is a desire for the U.S. to become less reliant on other countries for the supply of energy. Preferred policy solutions include increasing domestic production, improving energy security, and promoting clean energy innovation.

Drying up. Tracking the Environmental and Human Rights Harms Caused by Hydropower in the Caucasus and Central Asia., Manukyan et al., Business & Human Rights Resource Centre

Central Asia and the Caucasus need growing power sources to support their sustainable development. Increasingly, the region’s oil and gas will have to be left in the ground to achieve net-zero targets. Renewables, from wind, solar, and hydropower sources, must play a central role in the region’s energy future. However, as this briefing highlights, the hydropower industry model is broken, creating significant social and environmental costs with apparent impunity? The evidence of human misery and environmental damage – from our research on 265 alleged human rights issues linked to 32 hydropower projects – demands urgent attention from the international banks and investors backing these projects. The unnecessary harm linked to the hydropower industry now calls for a transformation of approach by investors and lenders in the region, as well as companies.

Egypt's First Updated Nationally Determined Contributions, Government of Egypt

The document presents an update to Egypt’s first NDC, covering the period between 2015 till 2030. The NDC update is aligned with Egypt’s developmental and climate change policies, including Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt’s Vision 2030, the emerging Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy 2050 (LT-LEDS), the National Climate Change Strategy 2050 (NCCS), National Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2030, and the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. In addition to sectoral strategies, such as: Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy 2035, National Energy Efficiency Action Plan II (2018 – 2022), National Water Resources Plan (2017- 2037), Integrated Solid Waste Management Strategy, and Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy towards 2030 (SADS 2030).

2022 Wildfire Preparedness Plan, Colorado Division of Fire Prevention & Control

Current long-range forecasts indicate above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation from now into June. That will result in the persistence and expansion of drought conditions across the State, and the emergence of above-average significant fire potential over the eastern portions of Colorado this spring. The long-range warm and dry projections suggest an earlier than normal start to the core fire the season during the second half of May across all of southern Colorado. Continuation of the warm and dry conditions are expected to result in drought intensification and earlier than average spring snowpack runoff, leading to above-normal large fire potential expanding across southern Colorado in May, and throughout most of Colorado by June.

Worth More Standing, Climate Forests Coalition

The report focuses on the 10 worst logging projects on federal lands across the country. It provides information on federal logging proposals targeting nearly one-quarter of a million acres of old-growth and mature forests overseen by the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management. The threatened forests are in North Carolina, Vermont, Wisconsin, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Arizona, California, and Oregon. Mature and old-growth forests hold enormous amounts of carbon. Preserving these trees is a meaningful, cost-effective measure the Biden administration can take immediately to mitigate climate change. Biden issued an Earth Day executive order directing an inventory of old forests and policies to protect them.

Much Alarm, Less Action. Foundations & Climate ChangeOrensten et al., The Center for Effective Philanthropy

Notwithstanding some urgent pleas among philanthropic leaders to consider the ways that climate change will impact the many communities and issues on which philanthropists and nonprofits work — and despite calls for funders to increase their focus on and giving to climate — total philanthropic giving by foundations and individuals focused on climate change mitigation represents less than two percent of total global philanthropic giving. Given limited sector-wide knowledge about foundation and nonprofit leaders’ perspectives on climate change, the study focuses on foundation and nonprofit leader perspectives on this topic. Foundation and nonprofit leaders overwhelmingly see climate change as an urgent problem that will negatively impact the lives of the people served by their organizations, especially historically marginalized communities. While they believe the public and private sectors, in particular, are not doing enough to address climate change, they believe foundations and non-profits could also be doing more. Despite foundation leaders’ concerns about climate change, foundation efforts to address climate change are relatively limited — in terms of grant dollars and investment practices — and are also seen as limited in effectiveness. Foundation and nonprofit leaders alike describe ample opportunity for philanthropy to engage more deeply and effectively to combat climate change. Despite their concerns about climate change, most non-climate funders tend to see this issue as outside the scope of their mission, though some have not ruled out future funding efforts to address climate change. Leaders of climate nonprofits and foundations urge these funders to consider how climate change affects their missions.

Performance Analysis of Regional Electric Aircraft, Mukhopadhaya and Graver, International Council on Clean Transportation

The aviation industry is aiming to achieve net-zero operations by 2050. This will require switching from jet fuel to alternative energy sources. Jet fuel’s high energy content, both per unit mass (specific energy) and per unit volume (energy density), makes this standard fuel difficult to replace. Improvements in battery technology have led the way in the decarbonization of road transport, as energy-efficient electric drivetrains replace fossil-fueled internal combustion engines. Can aviation be similarly electrified? The study explores the potential role of electric aircraft in decarbonizing aviation.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Comments

Comments 1 to 3:

  1. “Communication of solar geoengineering science: Forms, examples, and explanation of skewing” is interesting with some points meriting some consideration. I have not thoroughly read the item. But I have read enough to make the following critical observations (making no mention of points I consider worthy of consideration). I will carefully read the entire document to see if my initial impressions presented below need to be revised.

    1. The author appears to have sought out examples that fit their desired conclusions. Then they played some games to get a 'best fit'. They provide no examples of the opposite of the type of examples they chose to focus on.

    2. The author appears to be unaware that there is an important distinction between solar radiation modification (SRM) and medical treatments (they make many subjective comparisons between SRM and medical treatments - like "This important distinction can be clarified by analogy. Despite its own risks and negative side effects, chemotherapy is sometimes used to treat cancer."). Most medical treatments by something like:

    • initial rigorous testing on non-humans,
    • if the non-human treatment passes that initial testing then testing is done on a small number of carefully selected humans,
    • if that testing is passed then testing is done on a larger and broader population,
    • if that testing is passed then testing is done on an even larger and broader population.

    And medical treatment tests are often done for a long periods of time to potentially discover unanticipated long-term consequences. COVID-19 vaccine testing was an exception to the longer-term testing of other medical treatments because of the clear evidence of the risk of significant harm done by COVID-19 infections.

    There do not appear to be any non-planetary objects to meaningfully experiment SRM on. There are not hundreds of planets to have the second testing run on. There are not thousands of planets to have subsequent testing done on. There is this only one planet that, without humans messing it up by behaving like an asteroid, should be habitable for humanity for 10s of millions of years.

    It is absurd to suggest that it is acceptable to run a global experiment on the planet. It is especially absurd to suggest the ‘need for, and benefit of, an SRM global experiment’ because leaders will not do what needs to be done (disappoint a portion of the global population that believes it is superior). Global Leadership needs to rapidly end the continued forcing of CO2 and other ghgs into the atmosphere )(which is an unacceptable global experiment that is not ‘mitigated’ by additional global scale experimentation).

    3. The conclusions by the author regarding reasons for concern about how scientific presentations on SRM may be interpreted fails to mention the potential for political leaders (policy-makers) to be tempted to consider the potential for SRM to be a ‘solution’. The author appears to be unaware that some policy-makers have already exhibited a willingness to seek excuses for increasing harm to be done to future generations by the global leadership of the current generation failing to effectively reduce the harm being done. Some political game players may even selfishly consider it acceptable to delay the reduction of harm done, do more harm, because ‘future generations should be able to develop and use SRM’.

    That said, climate science is complex. And the diversity of action plans in response to the undeniable harm being done deserve consideration - never losing focus on the need to limit the harm done, and never forgetting how unexpectedly harmful human actions can be.

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  2. Speaking after hours and with tools down, it seems to me also that Reynolds is veering into the other lane, enough to see paint lines passing beneath tires. Hence "replies" rather than "answers." 

    When it comes to investigating and characterizing communications of the kind treated by Reynolds, it's a very good thing to have a group of "coders" parsing  raw data. Typically this would apply to responses to open ended questions in surveys. It's a standard, reliable means of neutralizing researcher biases, part of the social sciences survey methodology toolkit.  Here we don't have a "survey" per se but we do have communications that may unpack differently when read by different people, and the same improving methods and practice would pertain.

    Reynolds' methods section mentions nothing about coders. Reynolds is distinguished in his field, but for matters such as this perhaps would do well to team up with a colleague more centered on social science research methods (and here I'm speaking far beyond my own pay grade but this is still a fairly uncontroversial suggestion, I think).

    [Upon further reflection, it's surprising that this piece wasn't offered as a "perspective" but rather is classified as a research article, especially given its apparent total reliance on the author's personal, necessarily unique interpretations of communications he cites. And it does seem that after our stellar performance in the "unintended consequences" department over the past 250 years or so, an abundance of circumspection is arguably a virtue, not a fault.]

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  3. Doug,

    I appreciate that there are more rigorous/robust ways for a team to do the investigation/evaluation that Reynolds performed solo. But after reading the presentation and reflecting on it I am updating my initial comment.

    Reynolds makes good points about summary statements and press releases needing to be consistent with the understanding of the evidence. However, the following quotes appear to indicate that the author lacks awareness of the evidence and understanding of the bigger picture that SRM is a part of.

    Quote at the end of Case 1 evaluation:

    “Whether the disruption of the Asian summer monsoon is enough to argue against SRM depends on other scientific questions (What would be the expected agricultural impacts? How would evaporation and water availability change? Could water storage and irrigation systems mitigate any negative impacts?) as well as normative and political ones (Would the reduction of other climate change impacts outweigh this regional precipitation one? Could other countries and regions compensate negatively affected areas?)."

    Quote in Discussion:

    “Likewise, one could argue that my critique of the generalized assumed regime implicitly assumes that SRM would be used in a nearly optimal, globally coordinated manner. However, the papers in question generalize assumed regimes that would be in multiple actors’ interests and likely within their capabilities to prevent.”

    The author appears to be unaware of the history of failure of multiple actors to collectively prevent harm done by ‘actors pursuing benefit from actions that harm Others’ (not just the case of failure to limit global warming impacts). Total human wealth has grown far more rapidly than global population. In spite of centuries of perceived per capita advancement, many less fortunate people still live far less than decent basic lives and die unnecessarily early deaths. And perceptions of advancement and reduction of poverty due to unsustainable harmful activity like fossil fuel use are not sustainable impressions of improvement.

    The following quote in the Discussion is also questionable.

    “My critiques of inappropriate reference world and focus on the residuals assert that SRM should be compared with a world of elevated GHG concentrations, not a preindustrial one.”

    SRM evaluations, like any other scientific investigation of part of a bigger picture, should be consistently presented in the context of understanding of the bigger picture. For SRM, the bigger picture is the requirement for global leadership action to limit peak ghg impacts to 2.0C (ideally limiting impacts to 1.5C) plus actions to rapidly bring CO2 levels back down to 350 ppm (or perhaps even lower would be better) and strictly limit other ghgs. That understanding should be the ‘reference world’ (baseline) for evaluating the potential benefit of ‘temporarily adding SRM’. And SRM, temporarily applied that way, needs to be proven to harmlessly provide global benefits. The major challenge would be to have near certainty that there would not be harm done by ‘adding SRM’. Until global leadership consistently proves its ability to rapidly effectively limit and remedy harm done by pursuits of benefit, it is inappropriate to encourage any ‘added’ actions that may be harmful in spite of perceptions of improvement.

    A Building Code analogy would be better than my original comment example of medical treatments needing to be ‘real world tested’ to prove they are safe and helpful before being used to ‘safely actually help a patient’.

    A Building Code analogy highlights that the important evaluation of SRM is not a focus on bits of hoped for benefits like: less warming, less sea level rise, or less storm intensity. In a Building Code analogy, SRM is like a ‘novel building system’. It is not a rigorously proven ‘tried and true’ system.

    Building Codes present minimum checks to be performed on known and proven to be reliable structural systems. They make it clear that ‘novel materials or systems’ (not already well proven) must be proven to be reliable safe ways of building a structure before they are used. And it appears to be virtually impossible to ‘prove the safety of the novel SRM system in the real world before SRM is implemented’.

    From a Building Code analogy perspective SRM would not be within the realm of relevant helpful options for scientific investigation. Investigating SRM ‘benefits’ without focusing on the potential for harm would be in the realm of fantastic (fantasy) science investigation. It may produce interesting ‘new understanding’, but should not be a prominent focus of investigation.

    That leads to the same conclusion as my original comment:

    Never lose focus on the need to limit harm done. And never forget how unexpectedly (shockingly knowingly) harmful human actions can be.

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