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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2022

Posted on 29 December 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Author Guy Dagan appropriately doesn't make the connection but armchair enthusiasts can: if the climate becomes more twitchy when the atmosphere is loaded with aerosols, what happens if we try solar geoengineering via aerosols at scale? Maybe we should make sure we've modeled that thoroughly before leaping. Equilibrium climate sensitivity increases with aerosol concentration due to changes in precipitation efficiency is the springboard for this possible ripple of unintended consequences, for those of us with active imaginations. 

The US Congressional Research Service delivers a nice little precis in Australia: Climate Change Issues, part of this week's government/NGO collection. If one wants the "official" US view of how another CO2-slinger is doing delivered short and sweet, look no farther.

Via Environmental Politics comes a review of an intriguing book: Fugitive Politics: The Struggle For Ecological Sanity. Noel Castree's remarks are rather jaded, perhaps from overexposure to Carl Boggs' earlier work. Castree marks the book as a dry well for hope and objects to its unapologetically confrontational stance and unashamed political identifications. Bearing that in mind, hope's shape is highly personal and hope can be found in strange places. This is a book perhaps best reviewed by a reader consuming it in the natural course of learning— with full self-awareness of biases.

Buhaug et al. build models for conflict arising from climate stresses in their work Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century. The authors' result is methodically complete, attentive to quantification and well anchored to prior literature. Hence the three scenarios of potential conflict explored in the paper ring plausibly and concerningly. Attention must be paid, or with even a rough resemblance to outcomes captured here we're in even more trouble. 

"Global change" of course implies change everywhere, but the nitty-gritty details of ramifications of our unfortunate messing with our climate continue to amaze. Our situation is a thirsty sponge for situational awareness. Michael Clare & crew call attention to a problem that will be slow to unfold and patchy in its emergence, in Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network. The authors find that geography and geophysics mean there will be no easy rulebook for adapting our suboceanic telecomms assets to climate change.

It's not right to call broad uplift of living standards for hundreds of millions of people a "fringe benefit." Whatever the term, Paola Casati et al. measure the ripples extending from energy modernization in places hungry for improvement and find truly powerful positive effects. Clean energy access as an enabler for social development: A multidimensional analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa assesses the potential benefits to be enjoyed by ~770,000,000 people as we deal with our climate problem and finds a huge win. Why in the world would we want to be dragged kicking and screaming toward this?  

136 articles in 48 journals by 1,025 contributing authors

Observations of climate change, effects

Attribution of the Unprecedented 2021 October Heatwave in South Korea
Kim et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0124.1

Borealization of nearshore fishes on an interior Arctic shelf over multiple decades
von Biela et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16576

Climatology of Clear-Air Turbulence in Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere using ERA5 reanalysis data
Lee et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Open Access 10.1029/2022jd037679

Comparison between warm-sector and frontal heavy rainfall events in South China and the objective classification of warm-sector heavy rainfall events
Fu et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00949-8

Evaluation of change points and persistence of extreme climatic indices across India
Soorya Gayathri et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05787-w

Improved elasticity estimation model for typhoon storm surge losses in China
Sui et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05768-z

Long-term changes in the frequency of exceptionally cold and warm months in Europe (1831-2020)
Skrzy?ska & Twardosz, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7978

Persistent and non-persistent regional extreme total, daytime, and nighttime precipitation events over Southwest China (1961–2019)
Cheng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7968

Record High Warm 2021 February Temperature over East Asia
Xie, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0139.1

Regime shift increase in East Asia's summer extreme hot day frequency across the late-1990s
Lee et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7976

Regional changes of surface air temperature annual cycle in the Northern Hemisphere land areas
Deng & Fu, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7972

Seasonally freeze–thaw changes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and their possible causes
Yan et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7966

Spatio-temporal changes in the mean and extreme temperature indices for Serbia
Toši? et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7981

The Extremely Wet May of 2021 in the United Kingdom
Christidis & Stott, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0108.1

Water Year 2021 Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in California and Nevada
Hoell et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0112.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Global seamless and high-resolution temperature dataset (GSHTD), 2001–2020
Yao et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113422

Plant phenological dataset collated by the Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters
Holopainen et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3962

Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes
Simolo & Corti, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35571-0

Representation and evaluation of southern Africa's seasonal mean and extreme temperatures in the ERA5-based reanalysis products
Roffe & van der Walt, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106591

Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes
Li et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512366.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Changes in ENSO Characteristics in Model Simulations with Considerably Altered Background Climate States
Siuts et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-1004.1

Climatological changes in East Asian winter monsoon circulation in a warmer future
Wu et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106593

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming
Coburn & Pryor, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0200.1

Extreme indices of temperature and precipitation in South America: trends and intercomparison of regional climate models
Lagos-Zúñiga et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access 10.1007/s00382-022-06598-2

Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
Wunderling et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9

High-latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variability of the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity
Mehling et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06640-3

Human Contribution to 2020/21-like Persistent Iran Meteorological Droughts
Kam et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0149.1

Modeling the effects of realistic land cover changes on land surface temperatures over China
Li et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06635-0

Multiple Equilibria in a Coupled Climate–Carbon Model
Zhu & Rose, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0984.1

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century
Schenkel et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1

Projection of hourly extreme precipitation using the WRF model over eastern China
Tang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036448

Regional non-stationary future extreme rainfall under changing climate over Asian Monsoon Region
Sojan et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106592

Southern Ocean control of 2°C global warming in climate models
Shin et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003212

Warming of Baltic Sea water masses since 1850
Dutheil et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06628-z

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Comparing two weather generator-based downscaling tools for simulating storm intensification and its impacts on soil erosion under climate change
Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7971

Consistency of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation projections over Europe across a range of climate model ensembles
Ritzhaupt & Maraun, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037845

Critical analysis of CMIPs Past Climate Model Projections in a regional context: the Iberian climate
Soares et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7973

Intraseasonal to seasonal evolution of soil moisture-based droughts and floods in observation-based datasets and CMIP6 models
Wei et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7965

Learning by Doing: Seasonal and Diurnal Features of Tropical Precipitation in a Global-Coupled Storm-Resolving Model
Segura et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101796

Selection of CMIP6 GCM with projection of climate over the Amu Darya River Basin
Salehie et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access 10.1007/s00704-022-04332-w

Spiral polyethylene tube solar collectors performance analyzed by a new partially linear regression model
Vasconcelos et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02847-w

The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps
Soares et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06593-7

The double-ITCZ problem in CMIP6 and the influences of deep convection and model resolution
Ma et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7980

Uncertainty in Preindustrial Global Ocean Initialization Can Yield Irreducible Uncertainty in Southern Ocean Surface Climate
Singh et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0176.1

Understanding CMIP6 biases in the representation of the Greater Horn of Africa long and short rains
Schwarzwald et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06622-5

Cryosphere & climate change

Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries
Holland et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022

Estimation of stream water components and residence time in a permafrost catchment in the central Tibetan Plateau using long-term water stable isotopic data
Wang et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-5023-2022

Extensive and anomalous grounding line retreat at Vanderford Glacier, Vincennes Bay, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica
Picton et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-217

Sea level & climate change

Anthropogenic and internal drivers of wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, during the 20th and 21st centuries
Holland et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-5085-2022

Reconstruction of Mediterranean coastal sea level at different timescales based on tide gauge records
Ramos Alcántara et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-169


Consolidating historical instrumental observations in southern Australia for assessing pre-industrial weather and climate variability
Gergis et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06573-x

Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse
Rodríguez-López et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35676-6

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing the upper elevational limits of vegetation growth in global high-mountains
Zou et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113423

Borealization of nearshore fishes on an interior Arctic shelf over multiple decades
von Biela et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16576

Earlier leaf senescence dates are constrained by soil moisture
Wang et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16569

Effects of high temperature and marine heat waves on seagrasses: Is warming affecting the nutritional value of Posidonia oceanica?
Stipcich et al., Marine Environmental Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105854

Food resource uncertainty shapes the fitness consequences of early spring onset in capital and income breeding migratory birds
Ejsmond & Ejsmond, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9637

Frequent storm surges affect the groundwater of coastal ecosystems
Nordio et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100191

Incorporating dead material in ecosystem assessments and projections
Barnhill et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01565-5

Larch response to warming in northern Siberia
Kharuk et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-02016-9

Ocean acidification causes fundamental changes in the cellular metabolism of the Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis as detected by metabolomic analysis
Thor et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-26480-9

Optimal energy allocation trade-off driven by size-dependent physiological and demographic responses to warming
Thunell et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3967

Response of xylem formation of Larix sibirica to climate change along the southern Altai Mountains, Central Asia
Wang et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126049

Shifts in predator behaviour following climate induced disturbance on coral reefs
Rotjan et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1431

Variation in breeding phenology in response to climate change in two passerine species
Andreasson et al., Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-022-05306-5

Vulnerability of the Cerrado–Atlantic Forest ecotone in the Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve to climate change
Costa et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04321-z

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

2021 February Texas Ice Storm Induced Spring GPP Reduction Compensated by the Higher Precipitation
Yang & Liu, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003030

Contemporary controls on terrestrial carbon characteristics in temperate and sub-tropical Australian wetlands
Francke et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007092

Effects of afforestation on soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation depend on initial soil nitrogen status
Hong et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007490

Factors influencing the temporal variability of atmospheric methane emissions from Upper Silesia coal mines: a case study from the CoMet mission
Swolkie? et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-243

Hydrologic and landscape controls on dissolved organic matter composition across western North American Arctic lakes
Kurek et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007495

Methane Production Linked to Organic Matter Molecule and Methanogenic Community in Estuarine Benthic Sediments
Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007236

Precision of mangrove sediment blue carbon estimates and the role of coring and data analysis methods
Sternberg?Rodríguez et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9655

Prediction of plant carbon sink potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China
Huang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02846-x

Ranking the risk of CO2 emissions from seagrass soil carbon stocks under global change threats
Dahl et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102632

Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation
Liu et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7

Soil CH4 and N2O response diminishes during decadal soil warming in a temperate mountain forest
Heinzle et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109287


A powerful checklist for the selection of optimal scenarios between local renewable resources and grid extension using exergy, financial, and social analyses
Kaviani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02856-9

Achieving carbon neutrality through green technological progress: evidence from China
Cai et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113397

Clean energy access as an enabler for social development: A multidimensional analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa
Casati et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.003

Electroactive CTAB/PVDF composite film based photo-rechargeable hybrid power cell for clean energy generation and storage
Molla et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-26865-w

Embodied carbon emissions induced by the construction of hydropower infrastructure in China
Ge et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113404

Green batteries for clean skies: Sustainability assessment of lithium-sulfur all-solid-state batteries for electric aircraft
Barke et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13345

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of residential battery storage systems: A German case study
Fett et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13344

Mapping of solar insolation using air temperature in tropical and mountainous environments
Hoyos & Ruiz, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00945-y

RSM-based comparative experimental study of sustainable biodiesel synthesis from different 2G feedstocks using magnetic nanocatalyst CaFe2O4
Saravanan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02761-1

Spiral polyethylene tube solar collectors performance analyzed by a new partially linear regression model
Vasconcelos et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02847-w

Terpene solvents for the fabrication of greener organic solar cells and electronics
, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01172-w

The characteristics and parameterizations of the surface albedo of a utility-scale photovoltaic plant in the Gobi Desert
Ying et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04337-5

Transparent planar solar absorber for winter thermal management
Asad & Alam, Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-19448-2


Cloud adjustments from large-scale smoke–circulation interactions strongly modulate the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition
Diamond et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-12113-2022

Equilibrium climate sensitivity increases with aerosol concentration due to changes in precipitation efficiency
Dagan, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-15767-2022

Climate change communications & cognition

Changing how you look at climate change: attention bias modification increases attention to climate change
Carlson et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03471-3

Guiding Environmental Messaging by Quantifying the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Public Discourse Surrounding Anthropogenic Climate Change
Noviello et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0053.1

Investigating how economic and national identity loss messages impact climate change policy support
Klas et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03472-2

The Impact of Message Valence on Climate Change Attitudes: A Longitudinal Experiment
Diamond & Urbanski, Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2151486

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change and cattle production in Nigeria: any role for ecological and carbon footprints?
Onyeneke et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04721-8

Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves
Monteleone et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-022-05791-0

Rural Development Index (RDI) and GHG emissions of agricultural and livestock production: a spatial analysis of the Brazilian states
Batistella et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02777-7

Sustainability implications of Rwanda’s Vision 2050 long-term development strategy
Perez-Guzman et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01266-0

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic Impacts on the Water Cycle over Drylands in the Northern Hemisphere
Luo et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0037.1

Changes in reliability–resilience–vulnerability-based watershed health under climate change scenarios in the Efin Watershed, Iran
Chamani et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05774-1

Projection of hourly extreme precipitation using the WRF model over eastern China
Tang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036448

Regional non-stationary future extreme rainfall under changing climate over Asian Monsoon Region
Sojan et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106592

Spatiotemporal variation of daily precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with climatic factors and land use types in the Haihe River Basin, China
Ma et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7982

Climate change economics

Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA
Baranyai & Banai, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03465-1

Masters of the machinery: The politics of economic modelling within European Union energy policy
Royston et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113386

Climate change and the circular economy

Combining industrial ecology tools to assess potential greenhouse gas reductions of a circular economy: Method development and application to Switzerland
Wiprächtiger et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13364

Lessons, narratives, and research directions for a sustainable circular economy
Leipold et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13346

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon sinks and carbon emissions balance of land use transition in Xinjiang, China: differences and compensation
Luo et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-27095-w

Environmentally related technologies and environmental regulations in promoting renewable energy: evidence from OECD countries
Chu, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00810-9

Estimating carbon footprints from large scale financial transaction data
Trendl et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13351

From sectoral to integrative action situations: an institutional perspective on the energy transition implementation in the Netherlands
Warbroek et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01272-2

Investigating how economic and national identity loss messages impact climate change policy support
Klas et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03472-2

New energy demonstration city, spatial spillover and carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from China's quasi-natural experiment
Chai et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113389

Prediction and scenario simulation of the carbon emissions of public buildings in the operation stage based on an energy audit in Xi'an, China
Zhang et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113396

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A subjective Bayesian framework for synthesizing deep uncertainties in climate risk management
Doss-Gollin & Keller Keller Keller Keller Keller, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511798.1

Can we do more than “bounce back”? Transilience in the face of climate change risks
Lozano Nasi et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101947

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network
Clare et al., Earth, Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104296

Impacts of trees-grass area ratio on thermal environment, energy saving, and carbon benefits
Xi et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101393

Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa
Rusca et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8

Climate change impacts on human health

Urban extreme heat, climate change, and saving lives: Lessons from Washington state
Kearl & Vogel, Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101392

Climate change & geopolitics

Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century
Buhaug et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100471


Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Climatological Diagnostics and S2S Predictions of MJO Events
Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7984

On the Middle East's severe dust storms in spring 2022: Triggers and impacts
Francis et al., Atmospheric Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119539

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Consider the risks of bottom-up approaches for climate change adaptation
Qamar & Archfield, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01572-6

Fairness considerations in global mitigation investments
Pachauri et al., Science, Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adf0067

Feasible climate mitigation
Stern et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01563-7

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
Kloenne et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01566-4

Book reviews

Change in global environmental politics: temporal focal points and the reform of international institutions
Beaudoin, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2160113

Fugitive Politics: The Struggle For Ecological Sanity
Castree, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2161217

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate change made record breaking early season heat in Argentina and Paraguay about 60 times more likely, Rivera et al., World Weather Attribution

A large area centered around the central-northern part of Argentina, and also southern Bolivia, central Chile, and most of Paraguay and Uruguay, experienced record-breaking temperatures during two consecutive heatwaves in late November and early December 2022. The authors found that human-caused climate change made the heatwave about 60 times more likely. Alternatively, a heatwave with a similar probability would be about 1.4°C less hot in a world that had not been warmed by human activities.

The U.N. Climate Conference 2022 (COP27): Outcomes, Richard Lattanzio and Jane Leggett, Congressional Research Service

Outcomes of the meetin?including (1) greenhouse gas emission pledges and implementation are not on track to achieve Paris Agreement aims, (2) demand for climate finance, including adaptation finance exceeds delivery, and (3) the process continues regarding financing arrangements to address loss and damage.

Australia: Climate Change Issues, Bruce Vaughn, Congressional Research Service

While Australia has long experienced drought, bushfires, and flooding, projections indicate Australia will likely experience increasing temperatures, as well as more severe floods, coral bleaching, ocean acidification, droughts, and bushfires, as a consequence of climate change.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

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Comments 1 to 5:

  1. I came across a new Hansen et al study on ECS which I haven't seen referenced here. I haven't seen any news reports on it either. That's odd, because their estimate for ECS is "at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2xCO2), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C". That's a fair bit higher than the long-standing consensus of 3ishC, so it seems newsworthy but maybe I'm missing something.

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  2. HairyButler @1

    The paper is a preprint uploaded to Arxiv and hasn't yet been peer-reviewed. Which is why it for example doesn't get picked up for this New Research compilation. You could call it a "work in progress". Arxiv is not a scientific journal but "just" an open access repository where scientists can upload papers.

    It shows the status at the top: [Submitted on 8 Dec 2022 (v1), last revised 12 Dec 2022 (this version, v2)]

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  3. @HairyButler

    Michael Mann has tweeted against the conclusions in this paper (see these whole threads):


    Reading Hansen's piece, I was wondering why he never mentioned literally at least dozen papers (going back to before the AR5) plus the most recent assessment, the AR6 (I had a hard time believing that his entire author team also missed it, too).

    This illustrates the need for peer review by non-affiliated experts prior to making things public...and to rely upon primarily the major scientific assessments and the published, peer-reviewed science.

    This is the salient portion of the Lunt paper from 2010 that Mann references:

    "Our combined modelling and data approach results in a smaller response (ESS/CS∼1.4) than has recently been estimated using palaeo data from the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (ESS/CS∼2). This is probably due to the fact that transitions from glacial to interglacial conditions in the Quaternary involve large changes in the Laurentide and Eurasian ice sheets (see, for example, ref. 36), which result in a significant large-scale albedo feedback in these regions that is irrelevant for climates warmer than present. Furthermore, the main driver of Quaternary climate change is ultimately orbital forcing, which is close to zero in the global mean, and is therefore difficult to reconcile with a traditional climate sensitivity analysis."

    Note the expression of the ratio of ESS to CS (Earth System Sensitivity to Climate Sensitivity). If CS=3 C (per doubling), then therefore ESS would be about 4.2 C (and not 10).

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  4. Hairy BUtler,

    I read the Hansen et al preprint and Manns response.  THe Hansen paper is long and technical.  To evaluate the claims is beyond my pay grade, but I can summarize Hansen's claims.

    1) Hansen et al claim that studies of Paleoclimate (the climate in ages past) are the best way to estimate climate sensitivity.  The current estimate of the Charney equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 3C per doubling of carbon dioxide.  The ECS is the equilibtium temperature from rapidly changing thngs like atmospheric temperature and the ocean surface.  It has been 3C for a long time.  Recent papers have made new estimates of the last glacial maximum (LGM) global temperature that are about 3C lower than older estimates were.  This results in the ECS increasing to about 4 or 5C.  Mann cites the old papers to contradict Hansen.  If the ECS is really 4C instead of 3C than the expected warming is significantly greater.  Scientists often argue about whether or not new estimates are correct.  This can take years to resolve.

    2) Hansen has felt for decades that aerosol effects on climate have been underestimated.  Hansen claims that current Global Climate Models (GCM's) overestimate ocean mixing and underestimate aerosol cooling effects.  He provides new data to support this claim.  The net effect is to lower the calculated ECS.  As more and more energy comes from renewable sources the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere will decrease.  Since aerosols cool the Earth the net effect is greater warming than we have already experienced.

    3)  Hansen defines the Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) as the final temperature reached when slow responding functions like the melting of global ice caps reach final equilibrium.  This is significantly higher than the ECS, perhaps as high as 10C per doubling of carbon dioxide.  The generally accepted wisdon is that ESS will take thousands of years to reach equilibrium.  Hansen argues that It will be much faster.  Perhaps as much as 80% of final heating in a centuary.

    4) The net effect of higher ECS and ESS combined with higher aerosol effects means that there is a lot more heating in the pipeline (heating caused by carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere) than is currently believed to be the case.

    5) Since Hansen expects warming to be greater than the current consensus, much more heating is already in the pipeline and that it will happen much faster than currently expected, he argues that governments need to act much faster to contain this emergency as soon as possible.

    Hansen has made the argument for many years that aerosols are underestimated, ESS is higher than the current consensus and more warming is in the pipeline.  He has new data in this paper to support his claims.  This paper claims that the much more rapid increase in temperature he predicts will be obvious by 2050 and strong indications of his predictions will be measured in about 10 years.

    Mann basically says that he doesn't buy Hansens' argument.  Hopefully Gavin Schmidt at Real Climate will write a summary that will tell us the consensus view of what Hansen thinks is new data.  I expect Dr. Schmidt to agree with Dr. Mann.  I cannot evaluate Hansens claims, it is too technical.

    In my view, Hansen is a great scientist who has been correct several times before when he stuck his neck out.  He has also missed the mark on occasion.  It is worrysome to have someone so talented make such a grim argument.  This argument is not that different from his previous position but it has some new data to support his case.  I imagine that this paper will be discussed a fair amount online but that the IPCC consensus will not change until it is 2050 and his forecasts have proven correct.  Pray to whatever Gods you have that Hansen is incorrect. 

    If anyone else reads Hansen et al I am interested in your thoughts and/or additions on what I have posted here.

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  5. michael sweet @4,

    This document 'Global warming in the pipeline' by Hansen et al does appear to need some rewriting in my view.
    It explains it is the first of a pair (the second being 'Sea Level Rise in the Pipeline') and together they are perhaps akin to Hansen et al (2016) 'Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous' which was more a discussion document than a piece of science. But given 'Global warming in the pipeline' starts off with our understanding of the greenhouse effect back in the 1800s, its audience is probably not climatologists, so not a discussion document, although it does get a bit 'detailed' in places where a good understanding of climatology is required.

    At 48 pages, it covers a lot of ground and as-yet I haven't read very far through it, down to page 12 which covers the assessment of ECS. But it does read a little odd.

    The Abstract tells us that "improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fastfeedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2"

    The first thing that I felt odd was reference to Hansen et al (1984) 'Climate sensitivity: analysis of feedback mechanisms' but without a sign that this was such an old paper. The tempersture rise from the LGM used to calculate the ECS in Hansen et al (1984) is said to be +3.6°C, a value said to yield ECS=2.5 to 5°C. For me, that +3.6°C temperature increase is way below that usually quoted elsewhere for the post-LGM temperature rise.

    And 'Global warming in the pipeline' indeed then presents higher estimates of the temperature rise from the LGM: +6.8°C (± 0.8) in Osman et al (2021), +5.9°C (± 0.3) in Tierney et al (2020) and +5.8°C (± 0.6) for land SAT from Seltzer et al (2021).

    These are in keeping with values I've seen in literature for recent decades which usually sit +5°C to 6°C, perhaps the +6.8°C (± 0.8) in Osman et al (2021) a little higher than normal while some of those lower values have also persisted.

    And using such LMGR temperature increases, 'Global warming in the pipeline' then calculates ECS concluding "Thus, while the LGM-Holocene climate change implies ECS =3.3-5.1°C for 2×CO2, the PGM-Eemian implies ECS ~ 4-6°C. We conclude ECS is at least approximately 4°C and is almost surely in the range 3.5-5.5°C."

    What goes unsaid is that the literature used to source LGMR the temperature rise from the LGM also developes ECS values with ECS = 2.2°C to 4.3°C in Tierney et al (2020) (Fig 4 from this paper below, the RAE accounting for 'mineral dust forcing') with Seltzer et al (2021) concurring with the central value of this, 3.4°C. For 'Global warming in the pipeline' to ignore these ECS values is entirely unscientific as we now have two values for ECS derived from LGMR which are at odds with each other.

    Tierney et al (2020) Fig 4

    And the use of the PMG-Eemian temperature rise to calculate an ECS value is a novel and perhaps rather too adventurous as I don't know of such a use previously. 'Global warming in the pipeline' references Rohling et al (2017), a long paper which does not itself address ECS.

    So that is not a good start for a work which presents such startling findings.

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