Arguments
2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #9
Posted on 3 March 2018 by John Hartz
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week.
Editor's Pick
We’ve radically underestimated how vulnerable Americans are to flooding
New research claims that official estimates lowballed the risk by, uh, about a factor of three.
A giant nor’easter — incongruously named Winter Storm Riley, like some Brooklyn kid’s play date — is expected slam into New England coast today, bringing snow, rain, high tides, and damaging winds.
The Boston Globe reports that the National Weather Service has “high confidence” that the eastern coast of Massachusetts is going to experience “moderate to major flooding.” It has “moderate confidence” that heavy rains of two to three inches could cause urban and street flooding throughout southeastern Massachusetts, including Boston.
NWS Boston@NWSBoston
[HAZARDS] Updated. Coastal flood warning E MA, advisory S MA & RI; hurricane / storm force wind warnings for the waters; high wind warning & advisory across the interior; flood watch for E MA, RI & CT; winter storm warning for the high terrain ... Mainly Friday through Saturday
So it is somewhat ironic (if that’s the word) that this week also features the publication of a new paper in Environmental Research Letters showing that Americans are at far greater risk from flooding than official estimates reveal — as in, three times the risk.
We’ve radically underestimated how vulnerable Americans are to flooding by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Mar 2, 2018
Links posted on Facebook
Sun Feb 25, 2018
- Could More Snow in Antarctica Slow Sea Level Rise? by Shannon Hall, Scientific American, Feb 23, 2018
- Dirty industry undermines push to curb global warming - ex-UN climate chief by Sophie Hares, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Feb 23, 2018
- Himalayas getting warmer, snowfall decreasing due to global warming by Mayank Aggarwal, LiveMint (India), Feb 24, 2018
- Some of the World's Biggest Lakes Are Drying Up. Here's Why. by Kenneth R Wiess, Natioanl Geographic, March 2018 Print Edition
- How To Debunk A Climate Change Skeptic by Rae Johnson, Gizmodo AU, Feb 22, 2018
- Fortified but still in peril, New Orleans braces for its future by John Schwartz & Mark Schleifstein, New York Times/NOLA.com, Feb 24, 2018
- Analysis: BP significantly upgrades its global outlook for wind and solar – again by Jocelyn Timperley, Feb 21, 2018
- Activists fuse together ecology, faith by Andy Stiny, The New Mexican, Feb 22, 2018
Mon Feb 26, 2018
- The terrifying phenomenon that is pushing species towards extinction by David Derbyshire, Climate Change, Observer/Guardian, Feb 25, 2018
- Montrealers won't leave their cars at home by Clothilde Goujard, National Observer, Feb 23, 2018
- Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration by Jeff Goodell, Rolling Stone, Feb 25, 2018
- Australia’s Emissions Reduction Fund is almost empty. It shouldn’t be refilled by Ian A. MacKenzie. The Conversation AU, Feb 26, 2018
- Really extreme' global weather event leaves scientists aghast by Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 26, 2018
- UN hopes Trump will "reconsider" exit from Paris deal - climate chief by Sophie Hares, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Feb 26, 2018
- A climate scientist talks—respectfully—to climate-change skeptics by Amy Frykholm, The Christian Century, Feb 26, 2018
- Anti-secrecy lawsuits soaring against Pruitt's EPA by Emily Holden, Energy & Environment, Politico, Feb 26, 2018
Tue Feb 27, 2018
- Climate change experts warn of risk to human life in coming years by Greg Russell, The National (Scotland), Feb 22, 2018
- Climate change: 70% of king penguins could ‘abruptly relocate or disappear’ by 2100 by Daisy Dunne, Carbon Brief, Feb 26, 2018
- The Complex Interface between the Public and Science by Cary Funk, Observations, Scientific American, Feb 26, 2018
- How to Overcome “Apocalypse Fatigue” Around Climate Change by Jill Suttie, Greater Good Magazine, Feb 23, 2018
- North Pole surges above freezing in the dead of winter, stunning scientists by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Feb 26, 2018
- Scientists have detected an acceleration in sea level rise by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Feb 27, 2018
- Mangrove deforestation emits as much CO2 as Myanmar each year by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Feb 26, 2018
- Clean Energy Finance chief raises doubts about 'clean coal' solution by Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 27, 2018
Wed Feb 28, 2018
- Arctic stronghold of world's seeds reaches one million mark by Helen Briggs, BBC News, Feb 26, 2018
- European Council approves carbon market reform by Robert-Jan Bartunek. Reuters, Feb 27, 2018
- After rising for 100 years, electricity demand is flat. Utilities are freaking out. by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Feb 27, 2018
- Arctic warmer than much of Europe is a worrying sign of climate change by Stuart Braun, Deutsche Welle (DW), Feb 27, 2018
- Arctic heat spasm caused by stratosphere warming has a southern cousin by Peter Hannam, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 28, 2018
- Deep Bore Into Antarctica Finds Freezing Ice, Not Melting as Expected by Douglas Fox, National Geographic, Feb 16, 2018
- Passionate Moms Take On Scott Pruitt, Air Pollution and Climate by Niina Heikkinen, ClimateWire/Scientific American, Feb 28, 2018
- Study: Climate Change Threatens Major Crops in California by Amel Ahmed, KQED Science, Feb 27, 2018
Thu Mar 1, 2018
- Why Build Kenya’s First Coal Plant? Hint: Think China by Somini Sengupta, Climate, New York Times, Feb 27, 2018
- Why scientists have modelled climate change right up to the year 2300 by Dmitry Yumashev, The Conversation UK, Feb 27, 2018
- After the 'sunrush': what comes next for solar power? by Adam Vaughn, Environment, Guardian, Feb 28, 2018
- Another 'bomb cyclone' — with a huge flood risk — is aiming for the Northeast by Jennifer Gray, CNN, Mar 1, 2018
- They're Here to Fix Climate Change! They’re College Republicans. by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Feb 28, 2018
- Ancient carbon is coming from Arctic soil. It might be fine, but it might be terrible. by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Mar 1, 2018
- Companies are talking more about their climate-change risks, but it’s not much help to investors — so far by Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch, Mar 1, 2018
- Arctic warming: scientists alarmed by 'crazy' temperature rises by Jonathan Watts, Environment, Guardian, Feb 27, 2018
Fri Mar 2, 2018
- The scientists planning to get stuck in the ice to plug a climate gap by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Feb 28, 2018
- Awaiting Day Zero: Cape Town Faces an Uncertain Water Future by Adam Welz, Yale Environment 360, Mar 1, 2018
- Washington State Is Set to Vote on a Carbon Tax. For the Governor, It’s a Gamble. by Coral Davenport, Climate, New York Times, Mar 1, 2018
- Once-in-a-generation flooding possible in Boston — for the second time this year by Matthew Cappucci, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Mar 1, 2018
- 'Bomb cyclone' forms as flood threat sparks 'LIFE & DEATH' warning by Faith Karimi & Joe Sterling, CNN, Mar 2, 2018
- Explainer: The polar vortex, climate change and the ‘Beast from the East’ by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Mar 1, 2018
- A dangerous nor’easter storm could bring record floods to Boston. Here’s how they work. by Brian Resnick, Science & Health, Vox, Mar 2, 2018
- The future of climate policy is being decided in the Pacific Northwest by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Mar 1, 2018
Sat Mar 3, 2018
- OECD: Fossil fuel subsidies added up to at least $373bn in 2015 by Jocelyn Timperley, Carbon Brief, Feb 28. 2018
- Hydropower supply dries up with climate change by Irene Banos Ruiz, Deutsche Welle, Mar 1, 2018
- GOP Pushes 80 Anti-Environment Riders, Dark Money Rule Changes in Spending Bill by Marianne Lavelle, InsideClimate News, Mar 2, 2018
- Slow-moving nor'easter kills 5, knocks out power in several states by Nicole Chavez, CNN, Mar 3, 2018
- What role did climate change play in this winter’s US freezes, heat, and drought? by Dana Nuccitelli & Doug Sinton, Citizens' Climate Lobby, Feb 26, 2018
- How America's clean coal dream unravelled by Sharon Kelly, Environment, Guardian, Mar 2, 2018
- Actions today will decide Antarctic ice sheet loss and sea level rise by Dana Nuccitelli, Cimate Consenus - the 97%, Guardian, Mar 1, 2018
- We’ve radically underestimated how vulnerable Americans are to flooding by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Mar 2, 2018
The IPCC fifth assessment report finds no evidence that flooding has increased, yet has good confidence that extreme rainfall events have increased. This seems hard to reconcile.
www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
niglej:
Without reading the chapter, is it possible that the difference is due to better flood mitigation? Or just poorer (more noisy) flood data?
nigelj, Section 2.6.2.2 is brief. It appears to evaluate flooding by analysis of river flow rates. The following statement is the majority of the section:
"AR5 WGII assesses floods in regional detail accounting for the fact that trends in floods are strongly influenced by changes in river management (see also Section 2.5.2). Although the most evident flood trends appear to be in northern high latitudes, where observed warming trends have been largest, in some regions no evidence of a trend in extreme flooding has been found, for example, over Russia based on daily river discharge
(Shiklomanov et al., 2007). Other studies for Europe (Hannaford and Marsh, 2008; Renard et al., 2008; Petrow and Merz, 2009; Stahl et al., 2010) and Asia (Jiang et al., 2008; Delgado et al., 2010) show evidence for upward, downward or no trend in the magnitude and frequency of floods, so that there is currently no clear and widespread evidence for observed changes in flooding except for the earlier spring flow in snow-dominated regions (Seneviratne et al., 2012)."
The key seems to be a lack of a statistically significant consistent global change in flooding. Some areas have increased flooding and others have reduced flooding, as stated in the following portion of the much larger section 2.5.2 of the report:
"Recently, Stahl et al. (2010) and Stahl and Tallaksen (2012) investigated streamflow trends based on a data set of near-natural streamflow records from more than 400 small catchments in 15 countries across
Europe for 1962–2004. A regional coherent pattern of annual streamflow trends was revealed with negative trends in southern and eastern
regions, and generally positive trends elsewhere. Subtle regional differences in the subannual changes in various streamflow metrics
also can be captured in regional studies such as by Monk et al. (2011) for
Canadian rivers."
Bob Loblow, yes flooding data doesn't show an increase overall probably because of flood mitigation effects, dredging etc. I thought they may have tried to allow for all this in the studies, but it would be very hard now I think about it. I did some physical geography at uni, so I'm interested.
However this much is more certain:
www.climatecentral.org/news/europe-floods-climate-change-21704
"Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima.