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Climate Hustle

New Research for week #25, 2019

Posted on 25 June 2019 by SkS-Team

49 publications for this week. 

The last paper in this week's list features Skeptical Science volunteer and highly cited researcher Stephan Lewandowsky along with Skeptical Science founder John Cook as first and second authors respectively, working with regular collaborator Gilles Gignac. Their paper identifies, confirms and examines what layperson intuition may see as peer pressure to conform to perceived dominant opinions in discussions of climate change at online venues. The paper helps to  illustrate and exemplify how human psychology with its inherent flaws and virtues may be our most significant hurdle in dealing with the climate change we're causing. The problem might be said to lie between our ears, not up in the air. See also the aptly named I’ll See It When I Believe It: Motivated Numeracy in Perceptions of Climate Change Risk for more treatment of our dubious reasoning capability when we're confused by extraneous factors, the publication itself also being a nice example of extending and solidifying previous research.

Method for composition of Research News: This synopsis is principally composed via RSS feeds from a variety of academic publishers, employing fairly broad filters. The filter sieves 200-300 publications per week for further inspection. The resulting raw list  includes interesting but off-topic papers; human inspection winnows output to perhaps 100-150 works involving global atmospheric climate to a greater or lesser extent. Due to the volume of publications and limited time scrutiny is chiefly via reading abstracts unless compelling curiosity or reason for concern about the claims of a paper leads further. Some results are "down in the weeds," being narrow discussions of arcane climate model behaviors, or highly regional studies with little "big picture" impact, or tenuous results that will  likely benefit from more research; these are discarded. The final result is the few dozen publications per week cited here, involving extraordinary breadth and depth. Global anthropogenic climate change instigates and nourishes an astounding, grand collision of a multitude of scientific disciplines.

We'll perennially note: dry titles can't convey the content of an abstract let alone the full potential implications of a given paper. The publications cited in this list all fit the specification of plausibly being important components of a puzzle we're solving. We're working on providing easy access to abstracts but in the meantime we feel the articles we choose to highlight are worth a click to reach and read.

To the matter of clicking for abstracts, a question for readers: should clicking a paper title open a new window, or is it better to go "forth and back" from SkS to a given paper and vice versa? Please let us know preferences down below in comments— perhaps a consensus will emerge. Thanks!  

Global Health Implications of Nutrient Changes in Rice under High Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (OA)

Increasing organic carbon biolability with depth in yedoma permafrost: ramifications for future climate change

Climate sensitivity from both physical and carbon cycle feedbacks

 Deepening of the winter mixed layer in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean over 2006‐2017

Arctic Ocean freshwater dynamics: transient response to increasing river runoff and precipitation

ENSO regime changes responsible for decadal phase relationship variations between ENSO sea surface temperature and warm water volume

Radiative Heating of an Ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Climate Impacts from Large Volcanic Eruptions in a High‐resolution Climate Model: the Importance of Forcing Structure

Evaluating a Moist Isentropic Framework for Poleward Moisture Transport: Implications for Water Isotopes over Antarctica

Automatically Finding Ship‐tracks to Enable Large‐scale Analysis of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions

Simultaneous Abiotic Production of Greenhouse Gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) in Subtropical Soils

Contrasting temperature sensitivity of CO2 exchange in peatlands of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

An ensemble data set of sea‐surface temperature change from 1850: the Met Office Hadley Centre HadSST.4.0.0.0 data set

Physical Drivers of Changes in Probabilistic Surge Hazard under Sea Level Rise

Atlantic‐Pacific SST gradient change responsible for the weakening of North Tropical Atlantic‐ENSO relationship due to global warming

Release of perfluoroalkyl substances from melting glacier of the Tibetan Plateau: Insights into the impact of global warming on the cycling of emerging pollutants

Comparing surface and stratospheric impacts of geoengineering with different SO2 injection strategies

When will spaceborne cloud radar detect upward shifts in cloud heights?

New estimates of aerosol direct radiative effects and forcing from A‐Train satellite observations

Evidence for increasing rainfall extremes remains elusive at large spatial scales: the case of Italy

A high-resolution 1983-2016 Tmax climate data record based on InfraRed Temperatures and Stations by the Climate Hazard Center

Climate assessments for local action (OA)

Evidence for fire in the Pliocene Arctic in response to amplified temperature

Effects of atmospheric CO2 variability of the past 800 kyr on the biomes of southeast Africa

Warming temperatures are impacting the hydrometeorological regime of Russian rivers in the zone of continuous permafrost

Elevation-dependent warming of maximum air temperature in Nepal during 1976–2015

The highest monthly precipitation in the area of the Ukrainian and the Polish Carpathian Mountains in the period from 1984 to 2013

Impacts of climate changes on the maximum and minimum temperature in Iran

The relationship between atmospheric blocking and precipitation changes in Turkey between 1977 and 2016

Changes of actual evapotranspiration and its components in the Yangtze River valley during 1980–2014 from satellite assimilation product

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Investing in a good pair of wellies: how do non-experts interpret the expert terminology of climate change impacts and adaptation? (OA)

Lateral attitude change on environmental issues: implications for the climate change debate

Long-term trends in large-scale circulation behaviour and wind storms for North Atlantic islands: a multi-data analysis using ERA-20C and meteorological station data

Genes on the edge: a framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change

The response of reference evapotranspiration to climate change in Xinjiang, China: Historical changes, driving forces and future projections

Phytoplankton decline in the eastern North Pacific transition zone associated with atmospheric blocking

Enfranchising the future: Climate justice and the representation of future generations

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages

Meridional Structure and Future Changes of Tropopause Height and Temperature

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures

Subregional differences in groundfish distributional responses to anomalous ocean bottom temperatures in the northeast Pacific

Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: Elevation dependency, timing and extremes

Meta‐analysis reveals enhanced growth of marine harmful algae from temperate regions with warming and elevated CO2 levels

I’ll See It When I Believe It: Motivated Numeracy in Perceptions of Climate Change Risk

Assessment of changing pattern of crop water stress in Bangladesh

Detecting and understanding co-benefits generated in tackling climate change and environmental degradation in China

Cognitive complexity increases climate change belief

Large greenhouse gas savings due to changes in the post-Soviet food systems

A Bayesian Networks approach for the assessment of climate change impacts on nutrients loading

Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus

The previous issue of New Research may be found here.

 

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Comments

Comments 1 to 5:

  1. Regarding : I’ll See It When I Believe It: Motivated Numeracy in Perceptions of Climate Change Risk.

    This excellent study just confirms what I and probably others suspect intuitively. We know that many people centre their lives on a collection of fundamental ideological beliefs, and are reluctant to change their beliefs, probably because of the effort and perceived risks involved and the risk of alienating themselves from their tribe, given these shared bottom lines define the tribe. If data comes along that suggests a belief may be wrong, the smarter people are the smarter they are at fooling themselves about the data, which shouldn't actually be too surprising!

    It's possible to train yourself out of this motivated reasoning, and be objective. Scientists are taught to do it. But it has a cost because it can mean criticising the views of friends and colleagues, and can alienate people from the group and the prevailing group think, so perhaps this is why its so prevalent particularly in the general public. It's just easier, but unfortunately the consequences of motivated reasoning can be serious..

    All this appears to be a risk factor for both liberals and conservatives however conservatives look to me like they have particularly complex ideological belief systems, so this possibly explains the stronger motivated numeracy among the One Nation people compared to the Greens, although nobody is immune from the phenomenon. In my experience everyone has at least some cherished beliefs.

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  2. I always vote for clicking leading to a separate tab/window.

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  3. I applaud your continuing this column.  I'd suggest for a start retaining Ari's subheadings.  They make scanning the posts a good deal more productive, preventing the mind's snapping back and forth among a large number of fields of research.

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  4. Thanks for the suggestion, Synapsid.

    As the current perpetrator of Research News I've been thinking hard about this, flipping and flopping.

    In days gone by I was in the broadcasting business, sucked in from engineering and onward into management, unavoidably becoming involved with music programming schedules thereby. In music there was an instinct to divide music presentation into genres, which has its ups and downs. The "up" is that listeners with a particular interest could spend an hour per week hearing their favorite style. The downside was that those listeners never heard anything else because we made it so easy for them to avoid anything new, thereby helping them miss much.

    In a way the situation in broadcasting  and choices there are redolent of the modern condition of the internet, where the decapitation of the editorial class has ended up inadvertently compartmentalizing thoughts and beliefs into what seems to be growing mutual intolerance and ignorance. Bumping into things can be a feature and not a bug. 

    As with music such as AA, jazz etc. there are scientific players working with different instruments, covering different beats but exploring realms sharing commonality. Meanwhile our fault as a species qualified for management of the planet seems significantly to lie in failing to see the big picture. 

    The long way of saying: the current disorder is an engineering choice. :-)

    But I'm still thinking about it; engineering is never finished. As it stands, articles are being presented in their default order as found in journal feeds so they are categorized at least by what is accepted by particular publishers and their respective journal families. It should be possible to make it work acceptably for specialists and generalists; I'll bend my mind to that. 

    Thanks again for your thoughts.

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  5. Thanks to this service, I discovered a new study that has profound significance in the palaeo category, having full access but not one iota of publicity when searched.  Can someone give it a good review?

    "Evidence for fire in the Pliocene Arctic in response to amplified temperature"

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