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Skeptical Science New Climate Research for Week #26, 2019

Posted on 2 July 2019 by SkS-Team

Welcome to another heaping helping of research publications related to climate change drivers and mechanisms, the effects of climate change and how we might yet grope our way into systems approaches to dealing with the mess we're making, despite ourselves.

52 items this week, derived from some 277 abstracts/articles emerging from our raw feed filter and evaluated for salience and impact.

Skeptical Science was founded to help people wade out of the swamp of misinformation found in public discussions of climate change. A perennial feature and expedient go-to of science denier arguments has been the seemingly paradoxical behavior of sea ice around Antarctica, with ice coverage stubbornly holding  and even increasing slightly for the past few decades even as the rest of the ocean/atmosphere system and dependencies showed obvious, growing signs of stress. There are good reasons for this seeming conundrum, but perhaps we're encountering limits to those controls. NASA GSFC researcher Claire Parkinson sums up recent details in the PNAS article A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates in the Arctic.  For another twist on blasts from the past, see A Positive Iris Feedback: Insights from Climate Simulations with Temperature Sensitive Cloud-Rain Conversion

Other papers of interest:

Public policy and human cognition encounter climate change

Communicating Climate Change: Probabilistic Expressions and Concrete Events

The urban governance of climate change adaptation in least-developed African countries and in small cities: the engagement of local decision-makers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Karonga, Malawi

Technology transfer and adoption for smallholder climate change adaptation: opportunities and challenges

Climate information services for adaptation: what does it mean to know the context?

Increasing Local Salience of Climate Change: The Un-tapped Impact of the Media-science Interface

Going Global: Climate Change Discourse in Presidential Communications

Climate risk assessments and management options for redevelopment of the Parliamentary Complex in Samoa, South Pacific (OA)

Health consequences of climate change in Bangladesh: An overview of the evidence, knowledge gaps and challenges

Biology and climate change

C3 plants converge on a universal relationship between leaf maximum carboxylation rate and chlorophyll content

Using Respiration Quotients to Track Changing Sources of Soil Respiration Seasonally and with Experimental Warming (OA)

Effectiveness of vegetated patches as Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban heat island effects during a heatwave event in the city of Melbourne (OA)

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches

Biological interactions: The overlooked aspects of marine climate change refugia

Strong photosynthetic acclimation and enhanced water?use efficiency in grassland functional groups persist over 21 years of CO2 enrichment, independent of nitrogen supply

Physical science of climate change

Changes in temperature seasonality in China: human influences and internal variability

Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclone intensification in high-resolution climate models


A Positive Iris Feedback: Insights from Climate Simulations with Temperature Sensitive Cloud-Rain Conversion

Reassessing the effect of cloud type on Earth’s energy balance in the age of active spaceborne observations. Part I: Top-of-atmosphere and surface

The dominant role of snow/ice albedo feedback strengthened by black carbon in the enhanced warming over the Himalayas

Thickness of the divide and flank of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet through the last deglaciation

The sub-adiabatic model as a concept for evaluating the representation and radiative effects of low-level clouds in a high-resolution atmospheric model (OA)

A reconstruction of warm-water inflow to Upernavik Isstrøm since 1925 CE and its relation to glacier retreat

Global database and model on dissolved carbon in soil solution (OA)

Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic (OA)

Sea ice volume variability and water temperature in the Greenland Sea (OA)

West Greenland ice sheet retreat history reveals elevated precipitation during the Holocene thermal maximum (OA)

Observed transport decline at 47°N, western Atlantic

Climate?sensitive controls on large spring emissions of CH4 and CO2 from northern lakes

(below is a perfect collision of public policy and research)

Framework for high?end estimates of sea?level rise for stakeholder applications

Ambiguity in the land?use component of mitigation contributions towards the Paris Agreement goals

Controls on the width of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

Model Structure and Climate Data Uncertainty in Historical Simulations of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle (1850–2014)

Regional differences in sea level rise between the Mid?Atlantic Bight and the South Atlantic Bight: Is the Gulf Stream to blame?

The effects of anthropogenic land?use changes on climate in China driven by global socioeconomic and emission scenarios

Geographical distribution of thermometers gives the appearance of lower historical global warming

The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea?ice loss in early winter

Long term measurements of methane ebullition from thaw ponds

Multi-tracer study of gas trapping in an East Antarctic ice core

The double ITCZ syndrome in GCMs: A coupled feedback problem among convection, clouds, atmospheric and ocean circulations

Comments on “Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China” by Soon W., R. Connolly, M. Connolly et al.

Temporal evolution of precipitation-based climate change indices across India: contrast between pre- and post-1975 features

Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase (OA)

Non?stationarity of summer temperature extremes in Texas

Assessment of CMIP5 multimodel mean for the historical climate of Africa

Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation

Multi?century trends to wetter winters and drier summers in the England and Wales precipitation series explained by observational and sampling bias in early records

Intensified inundation shifts a freshwater wetland from a CO2 sink to a source

Strong photosynthetic acclimation and enhanced water?use efficiency in grassland functional groups persist over 21 years of CO2 enrichment, independent of nitrogen supply

Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought

Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C

Changes in risk of extreme weather events in Europe

Nonstationary joint probability analysis of extreme marine variables to assess design water levels at the shoreline in a changing climate

The previous edition of New Climate Research may be found here.

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Comments 1 to 8:

  1. Has the site's certificate expired? I'm getting an alert message to that effect. Hope it's not an attempt at hacking again.

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    Moderator Response:

    [DB] You may need to flush your browser's cache.

  2. Solved, thanks.

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  3. Thanks again to the SkS team to continue the research list!!
    I also like bringing the "opener" to the main SkS theme:
    Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism ..
    The categories bring interesting new aspects of viewing ..

    I highly value this hard work of viewing, filtering, prioritizing, 
    categorizing, doing .. this list is unique in the internet, afaik.
    Deep bowing (will continue to donate/advertise as much
    as possible/useful .. finite money/attention of people ..).

    Virtual hug to the whole team.

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  4. "A Positive Iris Feedback: Insights from Climate Simulations with Temperature Sensitive Cloud-Rain Conversion"

    This paper---which has topnotch authors---appears to have real importance to the public understanding of our climate future, and is thus newsworthy.  Who is going to write a good review, that gives the full story and what it means?

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    Moderator Response:

    [PS] What is your basis for "top-notch" authors? The involvement of YS Choi would ring some alarm bells given previous shoddy papers (LC09, LC11).

  5. According to the abstract, new modeling suggests that the precipitation efficiency in a higher temperature regime may be higher than has been assessed so far, and that a corresponding decrease in cirrus (high altitude, ice clouds) shielding of downwelling SW radiation could be a consequence of that, providing a positive feedback that could be significant, but it is a very tentative finding. The abstract concludes:

    "These results suggest a potentially strong but highly uncertain connection between convective precipitation, detrained anvil cirrus, and the high cloud feedback in a climate forced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations."

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  6. campcarl - According to the abstract of that paper, they:

    ...investigate how introducing a potential iris feedback, the cloud-climate feedback introduced by parameterizing Cp to increase with surface temperature, affects future climate simulations within a slab-ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model...

    So they are running simulations with a postulated but unsupported iris feedback, a mechanism postulated by Lindzen many years ago in a series of debunked papers, and seeing how that affects a simplistic climate model. 

    I really don't see how that's particularly newsworthy. 

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  7. Agree with KR.

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  8. Thanks for pointing out my mistake.  I thought two of the authors were of a more reliable sort for quality work.

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