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Comments 201 to 214 out of 214:

201. Manny at 14:26 PM on 19 March, 2012
     You write: Agriculture: "the amount of sunlight reaching the ground in summer will not change because it is governed by the tilt of the earth." All of Northern Europe, lush with agriculture and forests, is at the same latitude as the Canadian tundra where the brutal cold kills all trees, with only lichens surviving. Your argument is simply wrong.
202. Doug Hutcheson at 15:30 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Er ... Manny, can you explain your reasoning a little more? At a given latitude, on a revolving Earth, during a given 24-hour period, the amount of sunlight arriving will be the same at all longitudes, excluding the chances of a massive and short-lived sunspot occurring during that 24 hours. How do you work out that insolation will differ? The temperature difference you mention results form causes other than insolation, I would have thought.
203. DSL at 15:59 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Manny, Charles C. Mann has a quite readable chapter devoted to the spread of malaria post-1492 in his recent book 1493. The story is a little more complicated than you indicate. There is a range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes. There is also a range of human responses, based on genetics. The Canadian malaria mentioned was probably vivax rather than the falciparum mentioned in Epstein.
204. DSL at 16:05 PM on 19 March, 2012
     And, Manny, I agree with Doug. What you're trying to say with the comparison between Canada and Europe is as clear as mud.
205. Bernard J. at 17:22 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Mohyla103:

     Bernard J.: "Glaciers do not impound water, they hold it as frozen mass." Did you mean that glaciers can be actual dams that hold liquid water back behind them, or that glaciers act like a dam in that they hold precipitation (snow, not rain) at a higher altitude? If it is the latter, then I misunderstood the phrase "natural dam" in your original statement.

     Although I know what his answer is, you'd best direct the question at Tom Curtis, as he was the one who originally used the phrase. For someone who said:

     It's this attitude of alarming the public with misleading claims that make me skeptical of AGW reporting accuracy in general.

     it's important to ensure that you are not transferring your own misunderstandings on to those who are in fact reporting accurately. This would seem to apply more broadly to your commentary here, as much of your scepticism appears to originate from a confusion over the actual science, and/or about what people mean when they report it.
206. scaddenp at 17:29 PM on 19 March, 2012
     I think Manny is confused as to why you have latitudal variation in climate. It is not due to differences insolation but to the many local influences on climate. For northern Europe, the warm Gulf Steam is the major factor.
207. Tom Curtis at 18:02 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Bernard J @205, Mohyla has mistaken a simile for a literal description. As the "mistake" involves a typically ridiculous interpretation, there was IMO no basis for it. Therefore I presumed the "mistake" to be a debating technique and discussion with Mohyla to necessarily to be fruitless in that once people start to intentionally misunderstand you, they are not interested in sincere discussion.
208. Tom Curtis at 18:19 PM on 19 March, 2012
     DSL @203, interesting about Plasmodium vivax. That it was not Plasmodium falciparum is made clear by the death rate of just 3% of those hospitalized with an infection in 1823. In contrast, Plasmodium falciparum that it creates a selective advantage for the sickle cell anemia gene which, though fatal if received from both parents, grants resistance to malaria if received from just one. The result is the strong correlation between Plasmodium falciparum and frequency of the gene for sickle cell anemia in the population (see maps below). Of course, the concern with global warming is not the spread of vivax but of falciparum.
209. Tom Curtis at 18:33 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Doug H @202, I believe Manny has raised a legitimate point. The issue is that more than one factor can limit the growth of plants. With regard to energy, plants have two important sources of energy. Like all "cold blooded" creatures, the energy which drives the brownian motion within their cells, and hence powers the chemical operations of life comes from the environment, and is a simple consequence of the local surface temperature. As the temperature rises, the brownian motion becomes more vigorous so that chemical reactions (and hence growth) proceeds faster. Of coure, the characteristic of energy from the environment as heat is that it has a high entropy. Life cannot proceed without some reactions that result in a lower entropy than their surrounds, so all life also requires access to a low entropy energy source to drive these reactions. For plants, that is the energy from sunlight which they convert to low entropy sugars or starches. This does mean that at higher latitudes, available sunlight becomes a restriction of plant growth no matter what the temperature, because without sunlight there is no low entropy energy to drive the low entropy reactions that life needs. What Manny has pointed out is that, given that there is extensive forestation in western Europe at the same latitudes as the Canadian sub-arctic, it is the high entropy energy from the environment (warmth) which is the primary limiting factor at those latitudes. The assumption it was lack of the low entropy sunlight that restricted growth was not warranted. Indeed, given that plants do not just lie flat to the surface, but deploy their leaves to gain maximum sunlight, it is not clear that the geometric argument about sunlight carries any weight. Given that in a past era, there were forest at the South Pole, I would suggest that lack of direct sunlight is only ever a seasonal limitation of the growth of plants.
210. Doug Hutcheson at 19:11 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Tom Curtis @ 209, thanks for the extra info - I am always confronted with just how little I know about anything! I must admit, I had never given a thought to the low entropy/high entropy energy source argument, so I have learned something new today - thank you. On the other hand, I was responding to Manny's dismissal of this:

     "the amount of sunlight reaching the ground in summer will not change because it is governed by the tilt of the earth."

     by saying this

     Your argument is simply wrong.

     which seemed like a drive-by pot-shot.
211. Tom Curtis at 19:41 PM on 19 March, 2012
     Doug H @210, it struck me the same way. That does not, however, it did not hit the target.
212. Bob Lacatena at 23:47 PM on 19 March, 2012
     211, Tom, While Manny's (and your) argument concerning sunlight versus temperature (i.e. multiple limiting factors on growth) is applicable to the case of plant life in general, we are talking specifically about crops that are useful for agriculture, and that produce a reasonable yield. Both yield and crop type are dependent on length of growing season among other factors. If you reference this map you can see that productivity for all northern latitudes is severely hampered (note that the coloration for Alaska is certainly wrong... it's been colored as a part of the USA, I'm sure, and not relative to its own actual crop yields). In particular, you will note that corn is never grown at northern latitudes. It must generally be planted in May and is not ready to harvest until October. When you add the problems with soil (much of the soil in northern latitudes having been scraped clean by glacial action, with no chance for later plant growth to replenish the soil), chances of achieving "good" crop productivity in northern latitudes due to climate change do not look promising. In my own direct experience, some years back I had a tremendous tomato garden on the south side of the house, despite being too far north to really expect to get good tomatoes. Being right against the foundation and chimney, the ground got very warm, and it was the one part of my property (ringed by trees) that got good sunlight through the growing season. The only drawback was that as the sun moved further south in August (just as the fruit should be reaching maturity), it would begin to dip below the tree line and shorten the length of the day. After about five years, my tomatoes wouldn't ripen. The trees at the south side of my property had continued to grow taller and to encroach over my lawn, with the end result that they cut off the sunlight too soon. I had lush, wonderful plants covered with fruit that never came close to maturity.
     Response: [JH] Fried green tomatoes? (:
213. mohyla103 at 00:30 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Bernard J. @ 205 You're right, of course, that question should have been directed at Tom Curtis. I didn't notice a third person had entered the glaciers as natural dams discussion. Sorry to you and Tom Curtis for the mixup. I am all for clearing up misunderstandings, which is precisely why I asked the question. It wasn't until I read your post saying glaciers "do not impound water" that I realized there must be some misunderstanding because that is exactly what a literal dam does. My misunderstanding was not intentional. "...much of your scepticism appears to originate from a confusion over the actual science, and/or about what people mean when they report it." I'm not sure what other cases you're referring to? I will refer you to post 199 and the discussion with JMurphy leading up to it, where I showed that in fact my reading of the original sources was correct and it was Barnett who was confused and/or did not report data accurately in his paper. Clearing up misunderstandings is a good thing, be they my own or ones in published papers.
214. mohyla103 at 01:03 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Tom Curtis @ 207 "Mohyla has mistaken a simile for a literal description. As the "mistake" involves a typically ridiculous interpretation, there was IMO no basis for it." You said that glaciers act as "natural dams", so I thought you meant: natural - it's a glacier, not man-made, therefore it's natural dam - something that holds back liquid water in a river system Please explain how my interpretation was "typically ridiculous"? It seems like quite a reasonable, if incorrect, interpretation to me. "Therefore I presumed the "mistake" to be a debating technique and discussion with Mohyla to necessarily to be fruitless in that once people start to intentionally misunderstand you, they are not interested in sincere discussion." I most certainly did not "intentionally" misunderstand you and to suggest I did is rude and debasing. Thank a lot for simply ignoring my mistake and assuming I was just out to cause trouble for the sake of trouble, instead of trying to further clarify your meaning first. It seems you have overestimated my intelligence here. I will ask once more, this time to the correct person. Please understand this is a sincere question: Did you mean: 1) that glaciers act as true barriers that hold liquid water back behind them, and prevent/control its release downstream? or 2) that glaciers act somewhat like a dam in that they hold precipitation (in the form of snow and ice) at a higher altitude? or 3) something else?
215. Tom Curtis at 01:26 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Mohyla @214, how can it be a sincere question when the question has already been answered?
216. Tom Curtis at 02:27 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Sphaerica @212, I think the map is suspect in sustaining your point. The distribution of rice, wheat and corn production are clearly heavily influenced by demand side economic factors. Further, they clearly take a nation wide average so that Australia's vast deserts result in low or medium productivity despite Australia having some of the richest and most extensive wheat growing regions in the world. Transferring this to Canada, it means the current limited arability of the Canadian Arctic is averaged with the southern wheat growing areas of Canada, and are not indicative of grain productivity in those southern areas. Having said that, your more general point is well taken. With a six month growing season, it is difficult to imagine corn prospering within the Arctic circle, not matter what the temperature. Never-the-less, a there is substantial room for a northward shift in Canadian agricultural production before the Arctic Circle is reached. The projected 2050 wheat production areas below are well south of the Arctic Circle: On the other hand, a similar northward migration of wheat production between 2050 and 2100 would bring the northern regions of production within the Arctic Circle and a possible hard limit on northerly extent on production. As you say, the situation is complicated, but clearly the notion that a northerly migration of agriculture under business as usual will compensate for loss of productivity in tropical and temperate lands is not sustainable (either intellectual, or into the future). The situation is worse in the Southern Hemisphere with a definite hard limit on production in the form of the southern coast lines of the continents.
217. mohyla103 at 05:52 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Tom Curtis @215 It seems I can't convince you of my sincerity, but I hope you will give me the benefit of the doubt anyway and continue the discussion. A simple direct answer from you would be more helpful in avoiding misunderstanding. Nevertheless, I think I understand now that you originally meant (2), but I interpreted it as (1), as (2) is a simile and (1) is the literal description. (?) You had originally said in 178 that these natural dams can absorb large precipitation events. I thought this meant it helped the watershed absorb the precipitation (rain) by holding the water behind it, like a dam. I wasn't sure I understood this correctly at the time so I searched online about glaciers as natural dams and all I found were articles about glacial ice or moraine dams, glacial lakes and outburst floods. I invite you to try this search yourself, and hopefully you will understand that me interpreting "natural dams" literally was not "typically ridiculous" but a natural misunderstanding of the phrase. Since your intended meaning seems to be like (2) could this have been better phrased as "glaciers act as natural reservoirs" since you seem to be referring to precipitation held in the glacier itself, not blocked up behind it in a glacial lake? Or am I still way off?
218. mohyla103 at 06:09 AM on 20 March, 2012
     Tom Curtis @217 Correction: could this have been better phrased as "glaciers act as natural frozen reservoirs"?
219. KR at 06:30 AM on 20 March, 2012
     mohyla103 - That's clearly what Tom Curtis meant, it certainly was my interpretation when I read his original post, and at this point I should think the issue is clarified. Both snowpacks and glaciers (as, essentially, snowpack compressed to ice, undergoing flow through internal deformation under their own weight) are reservoirs of winter precipitation, feeding freshwater supplies down hill. Perhaps we could move on, now???
220. mohyla103 at 07:13 AM on 20 March, 2012
     KR Thank you for the direct answer. Sorry to all for cluttering the board with this but it truly was a misunderstanding. Yes, moving on then I do have one final question. Tom Curtis said that glaciers can absorb large precipitation events and thus help prevent floods. How does this happen? If it's snow, I understand a glacier can absorb it. However, wouldn't this snow still be available for later use downstream upon melting, regardless of whether it lands on a glacier or the ground? How does snow's absorption by a glacier confer an advantage or help prevent flooding? If it's rain, I don't understand how a glacier absorbs it at all. Logicman in post 176 said that rainwater just runs off glaciers and does not add to its mass. This seems reasonable and nobody corrected this but was he oversimplifying?
221. KR at 07:27 AM on 20 March, 2012
     mohyla103 - Please note that large precipitation events on glaciers will generally be snow - being on the tops of mountains, and all that. Rate of flow from a glacier is dependent upon melt at the base end of the glacier, not recent precipitation at the top (which affects available glacial melt mass years to multiple decades later). Snowpack, on the other hand, melts yearly. You won't see a lot of rain on glacial origin locations...
222. mohyla103 at 11:48 AM on 20 March, 2012
     I still don't understand how a glacier can absorb a large precipitation event (of snow) and help prevent flooding. A large dump of snow would not come rushing down the mountain all at once anyway, since it's not liquid. Presumably this large dump would melt slowly throughout the spring, and possibly into the summer. This seems like pretty good flood control. Obviously I'm missing something here... what is it? "Please note that large precipitation events on glaciers will generally be snow - being on the tops of mountains, and all that." Certainly rain is possible on some glaciers during summer days. The temperature can be warmer and even above freezing, it being summer, and all that. I'll take your sentence to mean that discussion of rain events is not relevant here, though.
223. Daniel Bailey at 12:22 PM on 20 March, 2012
     @ mohyla103 Precipitation falling on a glacier is a case-dependent thing. Remember that the mass-balance of a glacier is a dynamic output of gains in the accumulation zone factored against losses in the ablation zone. Other variables are temperature, insolation, form of the precipitation, etc. That precipitation falling in the accumulation as snow typically gets compacted over time and eventually is converted into ice. During the summer melt, even the accumulation zone may contain melt pools or even melt lakes. These are drained via moulins into the body of the ice mass into the internal plumbing drainwork of the glacier. That precipitation falling as rain will largely be carried off via runoff of the outside of the glacier or into the interior plumbing. Glaciers not at their terminal extent often have a lake that forms at the terminal end of the glacier, impounded between the icy tongue of the glacier and the terminal moraine of rock, silt and soil that serves the function of a dam. These glacial dam-formed lakes can empty and fill according to the mass-balance of the glacier. High melt seasons can fill the lake beyond capacity, sometimes resulting into a catastrophic collapse and flood. When these occur, many thousands of people living in the flood plains below can perish in the massive walls of water and mud that ensue. How warming is affecting alpine glaciers is the reduction of the accumulation zones and the increases of the ablation zones. The result is a tilting of the vast majority of the mass-balances of the alpine glaciers of the world. Even those of the Himalayas (a post on this is in the works). HTH. Some resources for you: http://www.nichols.edu/departments/glacier/global%20glacier%20mass%20balance.htm http://www.nichols.edu/departments/Glacier/glacier%20survival.html http://glacierchange.wordpress.com/ http://www.geo.uzh.ch/microsite/wgms/
224. mohyla103 at 14:49 PM on 20 March, 2012
     Daniel Bailey, thanks for your detailed explanation and links. I learned, among other things, that snow cover in the accumulation zone throughout the summer and not just snowfall in the winter is necessary to maintain the glacier's mass balance. The thing I don't understand is from post 178 from Tom Curtis. Since I'm not sure if he will answer me or not, perhaps you could help clarify this? He said that glaciers "help prevent floods, and prevent seasonal water shortages". I understand how they prevent seasonal water shortages, but how do they help prevent floods?
225. mspelto at 23:37 PM on 20 March, 2012
     mohyla I admire your persistence. Glaciers that do receive large rain events are generally in temperate settings. Take southern Alaska. During such rain storms not only do we have the precipitation from rain, but this also causes quite a bit of snow melt. Thus, the actual water that will drain off per unit area can be greater than elsewhere. However, glacier plumbing systems filtering the water through the snowpack etc is slow. This spreads out the increased discharge and does not lead to a spike that triggers floods. If we take the Himalaya summer monsoon than rain only falls low on the glacier and again the drainage system is not as efficient as non-glaciated areas.

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